Torrential rains of 40+ inches deluge Thailand

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:47 PM GMT on March 31, 2011

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Torrential rains in excess of 40 inches (1.016 meters) deluged Thailand's Malay Peninsula this week, triggering floods that have killed at least 17 people. The floods submerged 61 major highways, affected 840,000 people, and forced the helicopter rescue of thousands of stranded tourists. Late March is usually a fairly dry time of year for Thailand, but near-record cold air settled in over the region this week, dropping temperatures to 5 - 10°C (9 - 18°F) below average. Heavy storms accompanied the cold air, and downpours with rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour affected the region for many days in a row. Sea surface temperatures of the waters surrounding the flood regions were near average, but were plenty warm enough to supply copious moisture to feed the storms. Flood recovery will slowed by additional moderately heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches expected to fall over the flooded region during the next week, according to the latest precipitation forecast from the GFS model.


Figure 1. The Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) analysis above was made using data that were calibrated using data from NASA's TRMM satellite. This analysis shows that rainfall for the past week over the Malay Peninsula was particularly extreme with totals of almost 1200 mm (~47 inches). TRMM satellite data revealed that rainfall in that area was frequently falling at a rate of over 50 mm/hr (~2 inches/hr). Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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204. TomTaylor
11:25 PM GMT on March 31, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hey Tom, Actually 2011 has significantly warmed in the GOM since Sunday. like I said on the Top 5 it went from 37% on Sunday and now it's 69%.

Yea, you're right. I just watched a 10 day loop it has actually changed quite a bit. I'm not going to be posting the SSTs everyday though, sorry bud.

If you do continue posting the daily SSTs, I would recommend using an animation. It makes your post take up less space and it's easier to compare the images. Here's the site I use


http://picasion.com/
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
203. Patrap
11:24 PM GMT on March 31, 2011
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model

ESL WAVCIS Lab
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
202. hurricaneben
11:23 PM GMT on March 31, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't see it getting that bad. Above average? Sure. But exceptionally active like 2005, or even worse than 2005? Gonna have to say no.


Well...maybe not AS bad in total storms, maybe like 2008 or a bit more in totals but the US (especially Gulf Coast) could be in danger, not that I exactly want it to be but it seems that way.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 414 Comments: 677
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Why do you think it might be that bad?


Because...the supermoon? The tsunami? Y'know, the 111-degrees temp in CVI? Dont tell me its gonna be another 2006 because it'll be much worse.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 414 Comments: 677
Hey Tom, Actually 2011 has significantly warmed in the GOM since Sunday. like I said on the Top 5 it went from 37% on Sunday and now it's 69%.
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This season will be probably very active - but I doubt on a 2005 level.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

No thanks, I'm good. I've already analyzed those maps time and again.

But I do see that you sure have done your research on SST and how they will have an impact on the upcoming hurricane season. The mere fact the 22, 23, & 24c line are higher in latitude as you mentioned may be a key ingredient this season for any storms that wish to form and threaten the Eastern Seaboard and Mid-Atlantic Region.

You must remember the 2005 season was a freak on nature and highly unlikely to occur again for some time. But, you never know.

I also am thinking upper-level conditions will be a bit more conducive for sustaining systems since dry air is a killer for these things--as last year proved to be in some cases.

The conditions appear right, at least so far. It might be up to just the steering currents to ultimately determine if the CONUS will be at greater risk this year.

Well I wasn't trying to suggest this would be another 2005 year lol. I'm no meteorologist but I do know that there's a lot more that goes in to hurricane formation/genesis than SSTs.

I'm just providing the information that I do understand fairly well...SSTs. They're simple enough for anyone to understand lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting hurricaneben:
Yeah this hurricane season will be SICK in activity, as in terribly active maybe like 2005--or possibly worse? I just hope nothing catastrophic will hit Florida, but a minor category 1 wont be bad.
I don't see it getting that bad. Above average? Sure. But exceptionally active like 2005, or even worse than 2005? Gonna have to say no.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Forget what I just posted about the cleanup still going on when today's babies graduate college; one expert says that the cleanup will still be continuing when the great-grandchildren of today's babies graduate college.

Crews 'facing 100-year battle' at Fukushima

A nuclear expert has warned that it might be 100 years before melting fuel rods can be safely removed from Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant.

The warning came as levels of radioactive iodine flushed into the sea near the plant spiked to a new high and the Wall Street Journal said it had obtained disaster response blueprints which said the plant's operators were woefully unprepared for the scale of the disaster.

Water is still being poured into the damaged reactors to cool melting fuel rods.

But one expert says the radiation leaks will be ongoing and it could take 50 to 100 years before the nuclear fuel rods have completely cooled and been removed.

Article...

P.S. - Note the part in the article that states, "Meanwhile the Wall Street Journal says it has obtained disaster-readiness plans which show the facility only had one satellite phone and a single stretcher in case of an accident." If you think such stellar accident readiness plans are limited to Fukushima, you're dreaming. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Is there anyway you could do that every other day or somthin. it sure saves me time, because I post the GOM warmth Top 5 every day.(see post 163)


once or twice a week sure.

But I honestly don't think SSTs make that big of a change over the course of one day.

If you're curious how I made it an animation, just type in "Make a gif" on google and you will find plenty of sites to upload the animation.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting cat5hurricane:

And...

what, would you like 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009 in that mix too??

LOL.

WELL, if you really want some analysis:

1. Gulf is clearly the warmest in 2011. Followed by 2005 and then 2010.
2. The Caribbean was warmest in 2010. Followed by 2005 and then 2011.

One thing I do find interesting is that in the mid atlantic, the 26c line is furthest north in 2010, followed by 2005 and lowest in 2011. However, the 22, 23, and 24c line are all at their highest in 2011. There is a large expanse of 24-26c water present over the mid atlantic this year. I just want to point that out because it seems people only care about the 26c line because that's the minimum for tc formation. However, since it is not yet hurricane season and SSTs are still warming, those areas all just below 26c will likely reach the 26c mark come summertime. Meaning by summertime, the 26c mark could be further north than we saw it in 2005 and 2010.

Of course that's a big could.

Over by Cape Verde SSTs are warmer this year than they were in 2005, however still cooler than last year which means storms wont be as quick to develop once emerging off of the African continent, meaning they'll stay south longer, posing a greater threat to land
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Puerto Rico Weekend Forecast
a href="" target="_blank">Link

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I've received about 7" here in Odessa today
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Atlantic SSTs on March 30th of 2005, 2010, 2011

Is there anyway you could do that every other day or somthin. it sure saves me time, because I post the GOM warmth Top 5 every day.(see post 163)
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Yeah this hurricane season will be SICK in activity, as in terribly active maybe like 2005--or possibly worse? I just hope nothing catastrophic will hit Florida, but a minor category 1 wont be bad.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 414 Comments: 677
i honestly wont be surprised if the line dissipates by the time it reaches south florida with the speed it has.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 470
Groundwater at nuclear plant 'highly' radiation-contaminated: TEPCO

More signs of serious radiation contamination in and near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant were detected Thursday, with the latest data finding groundwater containing radioactive iodine 10,000 times the legal threshold and the concentration of radioactive iodine-131 in nearby seawater rising to the highest level yet.

Radioactive material was confirmed from groundwater for the first time since the March 11 quake and tsunami hit the nuclear power plant on the Pacific coast, knocking out the reactors' key cooling functions. An official of the plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said, ''We're aware this is an extremely high figure.''

The contaminated groundwater was found from around the No. 1 reactor's turbine building, although the radiation level of groundwater is usually so low that it cannot be measured.

Tokyo Electric said it is likely that the high level of contamination in seawater has been caused by water that has been in contact with nuclear fuel or reactors, but how it flowed to the sea remains unknown.

Article...

To summarize:

--Radiation levels in both seawater and groundwater near the plant continue to increase daily, with TEPCO often saying they're not sure where the radioactivity is coming from.

--Hundreds of thousands of gallons of water have been poured into and onto the reactors to keep them cool, yet even now all four units have exposed fuel rods...meaning, of course, that there are too many cracks and leaks to hold the water in place, so slow-motion meltdowns are underway and will continue.

--The trenches and moats intended to hold the water inside the plant are full and/or oversaturated, so any additional water is simply running into the ocean and/or land surrounding the plant.

--TEPCO predictably says things are under control.

So, I've not heard what the overall plan is; my guess at this point is that the powers that be simply don't have a really good one on the table. They can, of course, continue to pour water indefinitely onto the reactors, dumping an eventual tens or hundreds of millions of gallons of it into the local environment, but that doesn't seem sustainable. They can cover the whole mess in millions of tons of lead-impregnated concrete (though this wouldn't stop the fuel rods from contaminating groundwater beneath the sarcophagus). At any rate, it's a safe bet to say that the cleanup at Fukushima will still be ongoing when babies born today are graduating from college in 2035 or so.

I find it almost humorous that Japan still classifies the situation as a Level 5 incident on the INES (even while some countries including the U.S. consider it unofficially at least a Level 6). Previous Level 5 incidents include the Three Mile Island accident and the theft of a thimbleful of radioactive caesium powder from a shuttered hospital in Brazil.

Right.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
at this rate, the lines not gonna make it here to southern PBC till after midnight
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Atlantic SSTs on March 30th of 2005, 2010, 2011

At this point in time 2011 & 2005 are more similar than 2010 and 2005.
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I've got the feeling a similiar squall line to the one on January 25th might affect portions of South Florida tonight...we need the rain, just not so much any major damage. Although I do wanna see some wind or supercell action but nothing too damaging.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 414 Comments: 677
Severe Thunderstorm WarningSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC057-101-103-312245-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0025.110331T2203Z-110331T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
603 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF INDIAN ROCKS
BEACH...OR 13 MILES WEST OF LARGO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BELLEAIR.
CLEARWATER.
DUNEDIN.
OLDSMAR.
TOWN `N` COUNTRY.
ODESSA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2808 8284 2809 8282 2804 8280 2807 8279
2817 8282 2817 8286 2819 8284 2817 8280
2824 8276 2841 8252 2810 8225 2796 8257
2795 8271 2792 8267 2791 8266 2783 8284
2786 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 240DEG 44KT 2797 8288

$$







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Evening everyone, What a week. Monday 5.50 wednesday .75 and today so far 6.20 inches of rain. I now have puddles. z-hills fl.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
Atlantic SSTs on March 30th of 2005, 2010, 2011

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting Minnemike:
i've been thinking this weather in Florida is being fed by the GOM loop current. conditions just right to ventilate and absorb all the energy and moisture. keeps spawning from there...

Good call.
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man when is this slug of moisture going to start moving South?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Daily GOM Warmth Top 5
2011: 1st Place, 69% Capable of TC formation / Up from 60%.
Up from 37% on Sunday



2008: 2nd Place, 25% Capable of TC formation / Up from 20%


2005: 3rd Place, 23% Capable of TC formation / Up from 17%


2007: 4th Place, 22% Capable of TC formation / Up from 19%

2010: 5th Place, 4% Capable of TC formation / Down from 8%

2011 is creaming all the other top season at the current point in each year with a 44% edge over 2008(which is in 2nd Place). This is odd, but not surprising due to the fact that down South there has been 70 to 90 Degree temperatures dominating all of March. This will continue to impact the warmth of the Gulf waters to be able to support even some GOM May storms to spark. Notice the 19 NS 2010 season sitting back at only 4%! As well as the 27 NS 2005 season sitting back in 4th place with just 22%. This is very interesting to see such a incredible season for the Gulf Coast, and yet it's like a small toy sail boat next to a party barge when you compare it to 2011. Keep in mind this is no real effect whatsoever to what anyone's expectations to the actual season, for all we know the forecasts could fail, and 2011 pulls a 2010(where all the storms recurve).
Which is unlikely, but never out of doubt...

Sorry, about not showing the pictures for 2007 & 2010. Been packing for the past week(going to move). so I have been running low on energy.
Need a...

or somethin
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i've been thinking this weather in Florida is being fed by the GOM loop current. conditions just right to ventilate and absorb all the energy and moisture. keeps spawning from there...
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Quoting Chicklit:

Wasn't the hottest place on the planet was off the African Coast near Cape Verde this week?
Yep.In a way that's good news so that the storms can develop early and move out to sea.
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Daily GOM Warmth Top 5
2011: 1st Place, 69% Capable of TC formation / Up from 60%.
Up from 37% on Sunday



2008: 2nd Place, 25% Capable of TC formation / Up from 20%


2005: 3rd Place, 23% Capable of TC formation / Up from 17%


2007: 4th Place, 22% Capable of TC formation / Up from 19%

2010: 5th Place, 4% Capable of TC formation / Down from 8%

2011 is creaming all the other top season at the current point in each year with a 44% edge over 2008(which is in 2nd Place). This is odd, but not surprising due to the fact that down South there has been 70 to 90 Degree temperatures dominating all of March. This will continue to impact the warmth of the Gulf waters to be able to support even some GOM May storms to spark. Notice the 19 NS 2010 season sitting back at only 4%! As well as the 27 NS 2005 season sitting back in 4th place with just 22%. This is very interesting to see such a incredible season for the Gulf Coast, and yet it's like a small toy sail boat next to a party barge when you compare it to 2011. Keep in mind this is no real effect whatsoever to what anyone's expectations to the actual season, for all we know the forecasts could fail, and 2011 pulls a 2010(where all the storms recurve).
Which is unlikely, but never out of doubt...
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Did anyone see the PBS Nova special that aired last night about the Japanese Crisis? It was reported that the Japanse coast sunk up to three feet in some places. This made it more suseptable for the incomming Tsunami.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Wasn't the hottest place on the planet was off the African Coast near Cape Verde this week?

Indeed.

"The week's hottest temperature was 111.2 degrees Fahrenheit (44.0 degrees Celsius) at Matam, Senegal."

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting washingtonian115:
That means that those water tempetures will be warming up nicley,and will be ready unfortantly for hurricane season.And if 2011 is going to pose a big hurricane threat....then that's not good.

Wasn't the hottest place on the planet was off the African Coast near Cape Verde this week?
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Funnel clound in Orlando earlier today.


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Quoting RastaSteve:


The line looks like it stopped. I wish we could send some of this your way as 6.6" has fallen already today with atleast another 1" to 2" today.


It's just creeping its way into Indian River County. It hasn't stopped, it's just crawling. Like you, I wish this would speed up.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:


So you just proved my point, this is pretty early for such a high temperature, thanks
That means that those water tempetures will be warming up nicley,and will be ready unfortantly for hurricane season.And if 2011 is going to pose a big hurricane threat....then that's not good.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.