Hurricanes Igor and Tomas get their names retired

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2011

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The names Tomas and Igor will no longer be used to name hurricanes in the Atlantic, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced this March. Hurricane Igor made landfall near Cape Race, Newfoundland on September 21, 2010, and was that island's most damaging hurricane in 75 years, with $200 million in damage. Hurricane Tomas smashed through the Lesser Antilles Islands on October 30 - 31, 2010, dealing a particularly harsh blow to St. Lucia, where eight died and damage was estimated at $500 million. Tomas also killed 35 people on Haiti, and contributed to a cholera epidemic that killed thousands.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after flood waters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas taken at 10:30am EDT Saturday October 30, 2010, as the storm began lashing the Lesser Antilles. At the time, Tomas was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The retirement of hurricane names
The WMO maintains a list of hurricane names for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific that repeats itself every six years. The names Igor and Tomas in the Atlantic would have appeared again in 2016, but will be replaced by Ian and Tobias. Each spring, the WMO meets to decide if any names should be retired from the list, due to notable death or destruction caused by one of the past season's storms. Any country that is a member of the WMO can request that a name be retired. If a country seriously affected by a hurricane does not request retirement of the name, then the name will not be retired. In the recent past, Mexico, in particular, has been reluctant to request retirement significant storms that have affected them. In 2010, two significant hurricanes affected the country, but Mexico chose not to request retirement of either: Hurricane Alex, which killed twelve people and did $1.5 billion in damage, and Hurricane Karl, which killed 22 and did $206 million in damage. Back in 2005, Mexico also did not request retirement of Hurricane Emily, which made two landfalls in Mexico as a major hurricane, destroying thousands of buildings, but not claiming any lives. A new storm named Emily will appear this year, as we are recycling the names from 2005 that were not retired (2005 holds the record for most retired names, with five.) Probably the best example of a hurricane that did not get its name retired, but deserved to, was Hurricane Gordon of 1994, which killed 1145 people on Haiti. Haiti did not send a representative to the 1995 WMO meeting when retirements for 1994 were decided. Gordon did not affect any other countries strongly enough to motivate them to request retirement, and the name Gordon will be used again in 2012.

Since Atlantic hurricanes began getting women's names in 1953, 76 names have been retired, an average of 1.3 retired names per year. The list includes one tropical storm, Allison of 2001, that caused billions in damage from its heavy rains. The storm with the most appearances so far is Arlene, which has appeared nine times: 1959, 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005. Arlene will make its tenth appearance this year. One exception to the retirement rule: before 1979, some storm names were simply dropped. For example, in 1966, Fern was substituted for Frieda, and no reason was given. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002. All of these storms hit Mexico.

Cool Katrina animation
A new visualization created by Advanced Visualization Laboratory at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois shows Hurricane Katrina spinning over the Gulf of Mexico during a 36-hour period in August, 2005. The animation is part of a full-length planetarium film called Dynamic Earth screened at the Fulldome UK festival on March 12 - 13. You can see the video at the newscientist.com or DynamicEarth web sites. The video description: Trajectories follow moist air rising into intense "hot tower" thunderstorms, and trace strong winds around the eye wall; rapidly rising air is yellow, sinking air blue. The sun, moon, and stars show the passing of time. The visualization highlights Katrina's awesome power and fierce beauty.

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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From the Weather Channel


•Although there is loads of uncertainty at this time, computer weather models are depicting a possible major Northeast storm late this week.

•This storm would develop Thursday night off the North Carolina coast and intensify Friday near the Jersey and southern New England coasts.

•Potential for snow to fall near the I-95 corridor including Philadelphia, New York and Boston.

•How much? As it stands now, a potential 6-to-12 inch snowstorm in highly populated Northeast cities. This is HIGHLY dependent upon the extent of the storm's explosive coastal development and track of storm.

•Strong winds and wet, heavy nature of snow may lead to power outages and very poor visibility.

•Major travel disruption over a wide area is possible!


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26896
Them Tall Tops and Rotating cells are producing some serious Updrafts apparently
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Whoa. 1.75" is pretty big for Gulf States...

0515 PM HAIL AMITE 30.73N 90.51W
03/29/2011 E1.75 INCH TANGIPAHOA LA BROADCAST MEDIA

And this is the second report, ~40 miles from the other...2 different cells.
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Indeed,,the Mennonites have been here since 2005 Post Storm and I've met a few who are doing rebuilding here,,and they are very nice,humble folk.

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798. flsky
Pat,
Do you know about the Mennonites helping in LA post-Katrina? Story on NBC news tonight.
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LSR:

0510 PM TORNADO RESERVE 30.08N 90.56W
03/29/2011 ST. JOHN THE BAPTI LA EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD SEEN. POWER POLES SNAPPED NEAR GARYVILLE AND
RESERVE.
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atmo is using the "TRW" Radar outta Reserve,La..not the Slidell one,,and he is in composite mode.

Me tinks.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Why the color contrast? Did they abruptly adjust the attenuation or switch from composite to base reflectivity with the radar?
I dunno. that last frame got to looking like nothing at all, suddenly. Says it is the same VCP.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W-CNTRL/CNTRL
MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292226Z - 300030Z

THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL TX...SRN AR...NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL
MS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0306.html
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Cell K-2 south of NOLA proper is one to watch

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mid lvel dry air appears to have suppressed most wx over central fl,that will be changing tonight as it moistens from the west,i live in swfl and im expecting some heact wx over night moving in off the gom
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If you look close you can see the outflow on the West side of the storm........WOW
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convergence time for NW Jefferson...that outta be fun.

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Just talked to blogger redhead,,Lotsa Wind and rain but the TVS seemed to have passed north parallel to I-10 just n of them
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782. flsky
Quoting flsky:
New tornado warning in TX.

Sorry - actually a thunderstorm warning.
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Quoting Patrap:
Thats VERY near the I-55 Split atmo..
Well done.
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780. flsky
New tornado warning in TX.
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TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10/55 INTERCHANGE IN THE LAPLACE AREA.

BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FROM A VIEWER IN THE LAPLACE AREA.

Storm Reports: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
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We have a local Blogger very near where that TVS went thru Laplace,La.

Blogger "redhead",check in if were reaching.
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Thats VERY near the I-55 Split atmo..
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Note that TVS is a Severe Right Mover and confidence is HIGH that a Tornado has formed and is on the ground,,if not intermittently.
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Yeah, that looks interesting...

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139
WFUS54 KLIX 292226
TORLIX
LAC089-095-292300-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0033.110329T2226Z-110329T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
526 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAHNVILLE...
CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAPLACE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NORCO AND HAHNVILLE BY 535 PM CDT...
NEW SARPY BY 540 PM CDT...
DESTREHAN BY 545 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 2997 9053 3008 9053 3006 9037 3007 9035
3006 9035 3006 9027 2987 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 283DEG 18KT 3002 9047
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Nasty went through LaPlace.
And how would you like to be "on approach" in 74dBz? The cell in the lake blocking all flights to the N, NE shortly. I'd expect they are delaying...

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NOAA Weather Radio
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292139Z - 292245Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER SRN PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BASED ON VWP
AT AMX/ WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J PER KG ACCORDING TO RUC
ANALYSIS. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND LEFT-MOVERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
/QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH OTHER CONVECTION EARLIER IN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY/ AND GUSTY WINDS /47-MPH GUST REPORTED NEAR WESTON
IN BROWARD COUNTY/.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
FL PENINSULA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS SURGING SWD TOWARD THE TIP OF THE SRN PENINSULA.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT OUTRUNS PARENT CONVECTION...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IF A STORM INITIATES OVER FAR SRN
MIAMI-DADE/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...IT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
OR SMALL HAIL.

NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE NORTH/WEST ALONG THE
SWRN COAST OF FL INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...WITH A RECENT UPWARD TREND
IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER COLLIER COUNTY. WITH LITTLE CONTAMINATION
FROM THE COLD POOL GENERATED BY STORMS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...ACTIVITY ALONG THE SWRN FL SEA BREEZE COULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

DIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

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Quoting Skyepony:


Today & tomorrow..


That situation with the reactors is very serious indeed. It looks like the sea is going to be the dumping ground for highly radioactive water. The stuff is putting out 1000mSv at its surface and/or as airborne radiation. Not exactly practical to truck it away, and if you did where would you truck it? 15 minutes of exposure is good for 250mSV, the newly increased (by 150%) annual limit for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

Here's hoping we don't see a much more serious steam explosion in the coming days and weeks. It appears from all the discussion about water in the basement level that we could see just that.

A very tough spot to be in. Your first priority must be preventing a full meltdown at pretty much any cost. To do that, you need a LOT of water, fresh water. We apparently have containment leaks, particularly at reactor no. 2, which is busy filling up a u-shaped overflow tube. From the end of that tube, it is 180 feet to the sea, and that is where it is going. Although that "can't be confirmed at this time."

If you supply enough water to prevent a full meltdown, you have all this radioactive water that is going to go into the sea.

If you cut off the water supply, you run the very real risk of a full core meltdown and steam explosion.

The sea wins out over the atmosphere. As dreadful as that is, a massive steam explosion is just not acceptable. Although we may end up getting one anyways if the situation continues to head south.

I have seen no expert commentary - none - that reassures me about the situation. The word "grave" pops up from now and then in commentary on this, and it seems that it is appropriate. Lets just hope we don't see criticality anytime soon.

The Japanese fishing industry is finished. They lost their fleet and now the fish will contain nasty things like plutonium that most consumers don't want in their seafood.

Much of northern Japan could eventually become uninhabitable. Including the Tokyo area.

Worst case scenario? Maybe ... but then again, what is the alternate scenario? Do tell.

French experts will arrive on the scene soon. Hopefully they will be a little more forthcoming, and will have solutions for some, most or all of this.

WTO

Edit: Clarifying the French experts thing, the head of a French nuclear firm is headed for japan with five nuclear experts in tow. It's not clear who called in the firm.
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Have your NOAA Alert Radios battery backed upped as the System will have some alerts this evening no doubt.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, that looks like fun stuff. Lots of convection. Luckily (depending on yer point of view) less shear to be had with those.



But, both LA and FL have an area of 100 BRN (bring up the full size pic...here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/br n/brn.gif?1301435030585


Yeah the overall picture for severe weather is worse in Louisiana tonight, in Florida, the support for strong winds and hail is plenty, those cells in South Florida have been very strong. However, there is a bigger threat for tornadic activity in Louisiana.

The severe weather focus will definitely shift to Central and North Florida on Thursday.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
Quoting TampaSpin:


Crazy.......i know. Look at the Shear on my graphic above tho. Look at the Water vapor loop of west wind and the one below showing Surface winds out of the South coming out of the GOM. Reciepe for problems.
A loop of precipitable water: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/ar chiveviewer.php?sector=18&parm=pwtr
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Effective layer significant Tornado parameter pointing at you, East Feliciana and St. Helena...
And EBR and Livingston.

(The red circle)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I wish they would have launched one since 7 am...budget cuts and all...


Crazy.......i know. Look at the Shear on my graphic above tho. Look at the Water vapor loop of west wind and the one below showing Surface winds out of the South coming out of the GOM. Reciepe for problems.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 29 2011


Short term...
surface analysis shows a stalled/developing warm front draped
across the area from near Slidell to north of Hammond and then back
southwest through btr. Increasing southeasterly winds have been pumping in
abundant moisture into the County Warning Area. Dewpoints have surged into the upper
60s to lower 70s. Relatively less cloud cover is leading to increase
surface based heating which should help to continue weakening the
what cap is in place. Latest radar loop shows convection just
beginning to fire off from around lft to btr which appears to be
focused over the frontal boundary. Seeing this gives fairly high
confidence in WRF solution for the next several hours. It had
convection initiating now but a little further northeast of current.
As the current airmass in place continues to destabilize this
afternoon...expect the activity to become more robust. Enhanced shear
combined with MUCAPE values increasing lead to the potential for
severe weather. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.
There is enough turning...especially on the boundary for tornadoes.
So...Tornado Watch has been issued for all the area until 10 PM.
WRF indicates later tonight a mesoscale convective system feature will develop and track
across the County Warning Area. Timing from west to east across the County Warning Area looks to
be from just after midnight through around sunrise. There could be
embedded bowing features and bookend vorticies as this cluster
moves through. Besides these threats...quite a bit of rainfall is
expected but no real changes from previous forecasts.Widespread 2
to 3 inches with locally 4-5. B/c of dryness lately...still need
much more to justify a Flood Watch.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.