Hurricanes Igor and Tomas get their names retired

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2011

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The names Tomas and Igor will no longer be used to name hurricanes in the Atlantic, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced this March. Hurricane Igor made landfall near Cape Race, Newfoundland on September 21, 2010, and was that island's most damaging hurricane in 75 years, with $200 million in damage. Hurricane Tomas smashed through the Lesser Antilles Islands on October 30 - 31, 2010, dealing a particularly harsh blow to St. Lucia, where eight died and damage was estimated at $500 million. Tomas also killed 35 people on Haiti, and contributed to a cholera epidemic that killed thousands.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after flood waters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas taken at 10:30am EDT Saturday October 30, 2010, as the storm began lashing the Lesser Antilles. At the time, Tomas was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The retirement of hurricane names
The WMO maintains a list of hurricane names for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific that repeats itself every six years. The names Igor and Tomas in the Atlantic would have appeared again in 2016, but will be replaced by Ian and Tobias. Each spring, the WMO meets to decide if any names should be retired from the list, due to notable death or destruction caused by one of the past season's storms. Any country that is a member of the WMO can request that a name be retired. If a country seriously affected by a hurricane does not request retirement of the name, then the name will not be retired. In the recent past, Mexico, in particular, has been reluctant to request retirement significant storms that have affected them. In 2010, two significant hurricanes affected the country, but Mexico chose not to request retirement of either: Hurricane Alex, which killed twelve people and did $1.5 billion in damage, and Hurricane Karl, which killed 22 and did $206 million in damage. Back in 2005, Mexico also did not request retirement of Hurricane Emily, which made two landfalls in Mexico as a major hurricane, destroying thousands of buildings, but not claiming any lives. A new storm named Emily will appear this year, as we are recycling the names from 2005 that were not retired (2005 holds the record for most retired names, with five.) Probably the best example of a hurricane that did not get its name retired, but deserved to, was Hurricane Gordon of 1994, which killed 1145 people on Haiti. Haiti did not send a representative to the 1995 WMO meeting when retirements for 1994 were decided. Gordon did not affect any other countries strongly enough to motivate them to request retirement, and the name Gordon will be used again in 2012.

Since Atlantic hurricanes began getting women's names in 1953, 76 names have been retired, an average of 1.3 retired names per year. The list includes one tropical storm, Allison of 2001, that caused billions in damage from its heavy rains. The storm with the most appearances so far is Arlene, which has appeared nine times: 1959, 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005. Arlene will make its tenth appearance this year. One exception to the retirement rule: before 1979, some storm names were simply dropped. For example, in 1966, Fern was substituted for Frieda, and no reason was given. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002. All of these storms hit Mexico.

Cool Katrina animation
A new visualization created by Advanced Visualization Laboratory at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois shows Hurricane Katrina spinning over the Gulf of Mexico during a 36-hour period in August, 2005. The animation is part of a full-length planetarium film called Dynamic Earth screened at the Fulldome UK festival on March 12 - 13. You can see the video at the newscientist.com or DynamicEarth web sites. The video description: Trajectories follow moist air rising into intense "hot tower" thunderstorms, and trace strong winds around the eye wall; rapidly rising air is yellow, sinking air blue. The sun, moon, and stars show the passing of time. The visualization highlights Katrina's awesome power and fierce beauty.

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting twincomanche:
Grothar, Grothar, Grothar...........


I am always here, twin.
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It missed ;)

Blast misses Earth

but registered

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

Sol, has certainly awakened for sure!

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Jim Cantore tweet
Hail core over Jackson, MS
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Jim Cantore tweet
PARISH GOVERNMENT OFFICE MEASURED WIND GUST OF 100 MPH AT THE END OF AVENUE G AND MAIN STREET NEAR PLAQUIMINES PRIDE That's pretty strong!
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big picture
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7 minutes old
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Radar with Lightening strikes overlayed

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with the paling of the sky during the morning rise storms build in to cover your day of rain and wind


thx again.. but we do need some rain over here tho.. hopefully not severe..
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<
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
lighting up
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Definitely a lot of favorable dynamics for continued severe weather across southeast Louisiana:

NAM meteogram/sounding:



GFS meteogram/sounding::

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938. beell
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
will these strong storms push into the FL pandhandle?? if anyone knows?


578. beell 12:32 PM GMT on March 29, 2011
As it stands right now, SE LA may see the greatest risk for tornadoes during the overnight hours-midnight to dawn and pushing east. Late afternoon and evening severe is a little more uncertain.




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH TO SRN TX...

...SERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PARTS OF E TX THROUGH
LA/MS THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EWD TO SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE
.
THE AIR MASS FROM THE SRN HALF OF MS WSWWD TO SERN TX/UPPER TX COAST
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING...PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S ACROSS THIS
REGION BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C/KM PER
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS/. THESE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SSWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS INTO SRN LA WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONTINUED
LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 0030Z INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVITY ACROSS SERN TX TO OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADING NEWD WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS FORCING
COMBINED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MAINLY ACROSS SRN LA TO SWRN AL...WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WELL AFTER DARK...WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT.

...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX...WITH THIS BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PROGRESS SWD INTO DEEP S
TX AND OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
EVENING...AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY
IN THE WARM SECTOR...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD INTO TX AT THIS TIME FROM
NRN MEXICO. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME POTENTIALLY
VERY LARGE. MODELS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH AN EVENTUAL DIMINISHING TREND AS SBCINH
INCREASES GIVEN THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
TRACKING EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE MAINTAINED WELL AFTER DARK
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

...NRN LA/CENTRAL MS TO NERN AR/WRN TN...
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS
REGION AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EWD TO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...30-40 METER HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH...AND INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/WAA OVER THE LOWER
MS/TN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE/TSTM
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM NWRN TN THROUGH CENTRAL AR TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. FORCING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MS...BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/8 C/KM PER 00Z LIT SOUNDING/ WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MUCAPE VALUES
500-1000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PROGRESSIVE PLAINS TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IN AN
INCREASE OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /50 KT/. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. AVAILABLE
THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS INTO THE EVENING AND OBSERVED SEVERE HAIL
IN AR EARLY THIS EVENING SUPPORTS A N/NEWD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.

..PETERS.. 03/30/2011
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Well all is quiet now. Hopefully that was the worst of the night :). Be safe everyone.
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Storm Reports

2210 RESERVE ST. JOHN THE BAPT LA 3008 9056 FUNNEL CLOUD SEEN. POWER POLES SNAPPED NEAR GARYVILLE AND RESERVE. (LIX)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
will these strong storms push into the FL pandhandle?? if anyone knows?
with the paling of the sky during the morning rise storms build in to cover your day of rain and wind
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Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa energy around too still.


Very eerie outside as the Quiet overwhelms the noise of Half Hour ago.
sounds of silence
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will these strong storms push into the FL pandhandle?? if anyone knows?
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Lotsa energy around too still.


Very eerie outside as the Quiet overwhelms the noise of Half Hour ago.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Man,you can still see the Tops of that Cell glowing Like a Light Bulb Flickering Se of here..

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Jim Cantore tweet
7:30pmCT Public reports possible tornado at Manhattan Place Shopping Center. Awning blown down and several cars damaged in the parking lot.
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928. beell
Two boundaries! Who'da thought. One north of the lake, one south-aiding in the low level shear and increased convergence and resulting tor warnings.

Kind of an unusual setup.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72...

VALID 292347Z - 300145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 72 CONTINUES.

A SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED FROM NEAR LCH TO JUST NORTH OF
BTR
TO 25 MILES SSE OF ASD. THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING NWD AS A WARM
FRONT OVER SERN LA.
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE 23Z RUC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE NUDGED INTO SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT
...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A SECONDARY/MESOSCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
S-CNTRL INTO SERN MS
...AND IS FOLLOWED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...MODEST
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS
THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BECOME SURFACE BASED
.

MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /52 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER VWP
AT LIX/ IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT.
..AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES
EAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE OZARKS TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS WW72 THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS
...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. THE CONVECTION
COULD ALSO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS...WITH AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2011
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diminish

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Hmm, nado in Harvey...maybe.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG HARVEY 29.89N 90.07W
03/29/2011 JEFFERSON LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO AT MANHATTAN
PLACE SHOPPING CENTER. AWNING BLOWN DOWN AND DAMAGED
SEVERAL CARS IN THE PARKING LOT.
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0727 PM TSTM WND GST BELLE CHASSE 29.85N 90.00W
03/29/2011 M58 MPH PLAQUEMINES LA ASOS

BELLE CHASSE ASOS REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH.


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Quoting IceCoast:
TORNADO WARNING
LAC075-087-300115-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0034.110330T0033Z-110330T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
733 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 730 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PLAQUEMINES
PARISH...OR NEAR BELLE CHASSE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH AT 750 PM CDT
RURAL ST. BERNARD PARISH AT 750 PM CDT

That means, you, Braithwaite.

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Vids uploading,25% and I'll post as it its published soon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting nishinigami:
In Braithwaite, plaquemines parish. Crazy hail here for last five minutes. Tree down in back and lights flashing. Hail starting again. It's so loud sounds like it's busting our windows.



Be safe over dere,,your in the core of that cell.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
TORNADO WARNING
LAC075-087-300115-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0034.110330T0033Z-110330T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
733 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 730 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PLAQUEMINES
PARISH...OR NEAR BELLE CHASSE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH AT 750 PM CDT
RURAL ST. BERNARD PARISH AT 750 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
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YIKES...
heads DOWN in NOLA.
stay safe, all.
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http://www.abcactionnews.com/subindex/weather

The best interactive site i use is above. Really nice stuff!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Plenty of rain here as well. Rain gauge fell during the nickel size hail, but I have to agree with Pat as the strongest storm yet this year.
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Quoting nishinigami:
In Braithwaite, plaquemines parish. Crazy hail here for last five minutes. Tree down in back and lights flashing. Hail starting again. It's so loud sounds like it's busting our windows.
Ohh, you're right in line for the worst of it, still, I think.
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In Braithwaite, plaquemines parish. Crazy hail here for last five minutes. Tree down in back and lights flashing. Hail starting again. It's so loud sounds like it's busting our windows.
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914. beell
Composite Reflectivity 04Z 03/30
High Resolution Rapid Refresh

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0720 PM TSTM WND GST TERRYTOWN 29.90N 90.03W
03/29/2011 M60.00 MPH JEFFERSON LA CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH IN
TERRYTOWN.

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Can see the twist SSE of NOLA:

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Quoting Patrap:


Foucher St.




About 10 Blocks,,one Left off of Constance


1076 was my grandparents house!
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Radar storm track now indicating possible tornadoes in the cells moving just south of NOLA.
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Got some Video of the Hail and Booming ..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
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906. flsky
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Horrible sound.
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Looks like it could get interesting region wide on Thurday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY...

...THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A HIGHER THREAT AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS AND NOAA BUOY REPORTS SUGGEST
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST AND NOSING DOWN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WAS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. THE NORTHWEST WIND WAS
SLOWLY SHIFTING AND WAS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. WINDS
CONTINUE SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE PENINSULA PUSHES THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES BACK OFF TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY STARTS
MOVING NORTH LATE NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD
BUT GETS RATHER RAGGED IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST.

WED...COLD FRONT STRETCHES NORTHEAST FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AREA TO NORTH CAROLINA PLACING FLORIDA
IN A WARM INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. PLACED
HIGHEST POP...60...ORLANDO NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS LIMITED BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE AS A PRECAUTION.

THU...BROADER TROF SWINGS OUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THURS...INITIALLY WITH A 150KT JET ON ITS
BACKSIDE DIGGING IT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO GA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE SAME VICINITY AS THE WED MORNING LOW. SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND STRENGTH/DEPTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FINALLY DRIVE THE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THURS NIGHT/EARLY
FRI MORNING.

SFC-H85 WIND FIELDS 40-50KT...THURS MORN AND AFTERNOON...AND THE
AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE DEPARTING 140KT JET MAX...THE
SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR A FAIRLY STORMY DAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. SPC HAS KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING
ALL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY.

THE ONLY ISSUE AT HAND APPEARS TO BE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...IF AN
MCS/SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF...DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD MOVE
INTO THE REGION EARLY THURS MORNING INHIBITING INSOLATION AND
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER....WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EVEN IF CONVECTIVE "VIGOR" IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH ENOUGH FORCING
FOR SOME LARGER HAIL. HELICITY PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF TOR THREAT
AS WELL.

DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER/ONSET OF PRECIP THURS COULD BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE BRINGING THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90.

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Quoting beell:


I tend to look for the potential for surface boundary interaction, cap strength, backed winds at the surface, the intensity and direction of the LLJ (veered somewhat from the surface wind ideally) and the strength of the mid-level forcing. Finally, entrance and exit regions of the upper jet.

Then add CAPE and shake well before serving


I guess I should have added "but is not limited to" in a disclaimer in my post lol, but then again i'm assuming that conditions are already ripe for severe weather and want to see how the conditions are for tornadoes which then I focus on the speed and directional shear- components of the Helicity. The LLJ works in tandem with the helicity if we consider the lowest 1km or so of the atmosphere.

Excellent points to observe on your part though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.