Hurricanes Igor and Tomas get their names retired

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2011

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The names Tomas and Igor will no longer be used to name hurricanes in the Atlantic, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced this March. Hurricane Igor made landfall near Cape Race, Newfoundland on September 21, 2010, and was that island's most damaging hurricane in 75 years, with $200 million in damage. Hurricane Tomas smashed through the Lesser Antilles Islands on October 30 - 31, 2010, dealing a particularly harsh blow to St. Lucia, where eight died and damage was estimated at $500 million. Tomas also killed 35 people on Haiti, and contributed to a cholera epidemic that killed thousands.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after flood waters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas taken at 10:30am EDT Saturday October 30, 2010, as the storm began lashing the Lesser Antilles. At the time, Tomas was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The retirement of hurricane names
The WMO maintains a list of hurricane names for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific that repeats itself every six years. The names Igor and Tomas in the Atlantic would have appeared again in 2016, but will be replaced by Ian and Tobias. Each spring, the WMO meets to decide if any names should be retired from the list, due to notable death or destruction caused by one of the past season's storms. Any country that is a member of the WMO can request that a name be retired. If a country seriously affected by a hurricane does not request retirement of the name, then the name will not be retired. In the recent past, Mexico, in particular, has been reluctant to request retirement significant storms that have affected them. In 2010, two significant hurricanes affected the country, but Mexico chose not to request retirement of either: Hurricane Alex, which killed twelve people and did $1.5 billion in damage, and Hurricane Karl, which killed 22 and did $206 million in damage. Back in 2005, Mexico also did not request retirement of Hurricane Emily, which made two landfalls in Mexico as a major hurricane, destroying thousands of buildings, but not claiming any lives. A new storm named Emily will appear this year, as we are recycling the names from 2005 that were not retired (2005 holds the record for most retired names, with five.) Probably the best example of a hurricane that did not get its name retired, but deserved to, was Hurricane Gordon of 1994, which killed 1145 people on Haiti. Haiti did not send a representative to the 1995 WMO meeting when retirements for 1994 were decided. Gordon did not affect any other countries strongly enough to motivate them to request retirement, and the name Gordon will be used again in 2012.

Since Atlantic hurricanes began getting women's names in 1953, 76 names have been retired, an average of 1.3 retired names per year. The list includes one tropical storm, Allison of 2001, that caused billions in damage from its heavy rains. The storm with the most appearances so far is Arlene, which has appeared nine times: 1959, 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005. Arlene will make its tenth appearance this year. One exception to the retirement rule: before 1979, some storm names were simply dropped. For example, in 1966, Fern was substituted for Frieda, and no reason was given. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002. All of these storms hit Mexico.

Cool Katrina animation
A new visualization created by Advanced Visualization Laboratory at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois shows Hurricane Katrina spinning over the Gulf of Mexico during a 36-hour period in August, 2005. The animation is part of a full-length planetarium film called Dynamic Earth screened at the Fulldome UK festival on March 12 - 13. You can see the video at the newscientist.com or DynamicEarth web sites. The video description: Trajectories follow moist air rising into intense "hot tower" thunderstorms, and trace strong winds around the eye wall; rapidly rising air is yellow, sinking air blue. The sun, moon, and stars show the passing of time. The visualization highlights Katrina's awesome power and fierce beauty.

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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253. Jax82
Crossing my fingers for rain in Jax today. Of course that never works, it seems like it rains all around us and then never makes it to my house. But this forecast looks promising.
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Apparently, side-effects of FukushimaDaichi's radiation releases are already being felt...

...around the world. Admittedly not as cool as Japan's Godzilla or America's 50footWoman

129 Patrap quoting String theorist Brian Greene:
No matter how hard you try to teach your cat general relativity, you're going to fail.

meh Cats are quantum*mechanics. And even the wys^ars can't reconcile QuantumMechanics with GeneralRelativity as of yet.

* Before Schrodinger, cats assumed that they were merely magical.
^ Hence wizard; and physicists being known as wizzes at applying mathematics to create algorithms for solving complex real world problems.

And goosegirl has already gotten there back in 242.
sigh "Ya snooze, ya lose" once again.
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After all of y'all in CFL and SFL have had your fill of heavy rain, please send some to SE TX... we could really use some too!
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245. beell
Maybe some issues with a cap for the Florida Big Bend area. We'll see how this model performs today. Has a pretty good track record over the last couple weeks.

Valid 1PM EDT

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF MODERATE...LARGELY ZONAL MID/UPR-LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION INTO TUE...S OF CANADIAN OMEGA
BLOCK. IN THIS FLOW...IMPULSE NOW OVER THE TN VLY EXPECTED TO TRACK
E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY EVE AS COMPLEX UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN. THE LATTER
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO THE CNTRL RCKYS EARLY TUE.

AT THE SFC...SHALLOW...ROUGHLY W-E COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND NRN FL. WEAK WAVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY /NOW NEAR KMOB/ SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EWD ALONG THE FRONT
. THE WRN PART OF THE FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY ITS
REFLECTION AT 850 MB...SHOULD REF0RM NWD ACROSS N TX LATE IN THE
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF
GRT BASIN UPR IMPULSE.

...FL/SRN AL AND GA TODAY...
MCS NOW OVER CNTRL FL APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT
925-850 MB FLOW BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LVL JET OFF THE
GA/SC CST. THIS CONFLUENCE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY
INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
AND OVER THE
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY ON WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF EXITING MCS.
MEAN FLOW OVER THE REGION IS FAIRLY MODEST /30-40 KTS/...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. BUT THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
AND...COUPLED WITH
HIGH PW OVER REGION /1.50 - 1.75 INCHES/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPOTS OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALSO
MAY FORM NEAR AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC WAVE IN SRN AL/GA.


...SRN PLNS EARLY TUE...
AIR MASS ALONG FRONT REDEVELOPING NWD THROUGH TX AND ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN W TX SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING TODAY
...
PRECLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL STORMS. A GREATER CHANCE FOR
TSTMS MAY EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT
OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY TUE IN AREA
OF STRENGTHENING 850 MB WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW OVER PARTS OF THE RED
RVR VLY REGION OF OK/N TX. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE AND 40-50 KT AND THEREFORE MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL IN STRONGER CORES.

..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/28/2011


Yesterday's SPC verification. Based on the 06Z Day 1 Outlook.

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

The lapse rates would be pretty remarkable.

Yep, no kidding.

Personally, I would be happy with a couple of days of nice SE TX thunderstorms... drop .5" to 1" of rain in 30 minutes, and the outflow boundary keeps it cool for the next few hours. Unfortunately, our PW right now isn't that great, so no nice rains today.

I'm guessing our PW, since we aren't deemed as worthy of a full-fledged sounding, and our nearest sounding site, Lake Charles - LCH - is down. Corpus Christi's PW is 0.93" as of this morning, so there likely isn't a whole lot of moisture to work with right now.
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Quoting Patrap:

No matter how hard you try to teach your cat general relativity, you're going to fail.



Brian Greene


Unless your name is Schrödinger- then you can teach your cat about quantum mechanics and parodox :)
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With midlevel temps at -13C, that will also lead to very intense storms, as the warm updrafts will move even faster through the cold air due to the temp difference.
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Big storms getting ready to move in on the northside of orlando and these storms look like they may train for awhile.Going to be a long day in C FL considering the mid level temps are at -13. Incredible! You can bet somebody around here is going to get some good size hail stones.
Pictures of severe storm that struck 3 weeks earlier...Link
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The destructive 1992 hailstorm in Orlando, FL..Link
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Quoting Grothar:


We're direr than Texas is.
Mornin Gro..Geritol anyone...:)This is the ashfall from the eruption in Iceland last year..Computers have come a long way.
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Good Morning/Evening

I wanted to remind everyone not to pile dead leaves against your house, especially against wood siding. My part of Florida is only in 'severe drought'but it was enough for the leaves to combust and burn my neighbors house down.

Keep them away from the house.

Early this morning we did finally get some rain, and should get more on Wednesday.
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People up north would die for those kind of temps
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Quoting Grothar:


Better bring your umbrella if you are going to Publix.


I am, not until later though.

No joke, I see a bit of rotation in the clouds outside my window.
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Yesterday in my garage it was 91 degrees when I started the car up with temps in the mid to upper 80s outside.

This morning behind the front it was in the upper 50s to near 60 outside and 81 in the garage this morning when started car up
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Tumbleweeds will be the new norm in Florida
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Florida gonna need some new plants
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Quoting caneswatch:


That Severe Thunderstorm Watch is gonna be extended longer than midday, and we might have a few warnings pop up as well.


Better bring your umbrella if you are going to Publix.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Per capita, yes. But more land area (sq mi or acreage) is susceptible in TX.


Yeah, but if things really get bad, they can drive to Oklahoma. We are we going to go? We are surrounded by water. J/K. I know, it is really bad all over. The only really big difference is that almost all of Florida has tropical or subtropical plants. This drought has put a tremendous strain on the vegetation on they are becoming suseptible to disease on drying off like I have never seen. It would appear from the forecast that the drought in the Southeast and Southwest will continue to worsen.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
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QRF discussion for S.E......SRN MID ATLC..SE U.S. INTO FL...
WEAK MID LEVEL VORT STREAKING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE TN/LOWER OH
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN MID ATLC THIS AFTN. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE..AREA OF BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCTD SHOWERS AND SOME STEADIER RAINS NORTH OF FRONTAL
BNDRY OVER THE SE STATES THRU THE MRNG HRS BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. TO THE SOUTH....MOIST SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING AN AREA OF RATHER DEEP TROPICAL MSTR OVER THE CNTL FL
PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHWRS/TSTMS ON MON. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
WITH QPF..LIKELY TIED TO MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTION
WHICH THE LARGER SCALE MODELS OFTEN HANDLE POORLY. SOME OF THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE DO BRING A BAND OF .50 TO 1.5 INCH PLUS RAINS
ACRS CNTL FL TDA MAINLY ACRS THE WCNTL PORTION OF THE STATE BEFORE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SATL DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STG AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY E AS OF
06Z. HOWEVER AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ACRS FL..THESE SYSTEMS COULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APCH THE COAST AND REDEVELOP ELSEWHERE DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THAT REASON..HAVE GIVEN SOME HIER WEIGHT TO THE HI RES
GUIDANCE QPF..BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
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Why is everyone posting the same maps? LOL


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Quoting cat5hurricane:

After looking at your drought maps this morning, I'd say that's about right. You need it even worse than Florida does. The situation out there is just as dire if not more...


We're direr than Texas is.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting cat5hurricane:

After looking at your drought maps this morning, I'd say that's about right. You need it even worse than Florida does. The situation out there is just as dire if not more...


Need a pattern change and soon
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Quoting Grothar:
More storms building in the Gulf. Move Southeast




That Severe Thunderstorm Watch is gonna be extended longer than midday, and we might have a few warnings pop up as well.
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Quoting RastaSteve:
Anybody have the HPC 5 Day accumulated precip forecast?
Fresh off the press..Do they still say that???...
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More storms building in the Gulf. Move Southeast


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting RastaSteve:
Anybody have the HPC 5 Day accumulated precip forecast?
One model of 4 day...
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The NAM has a stormy 4 days for the S.E. U.S...Link
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Bring on the rain to Southwest Florida. Hell, for the whole entire state for that matter...


Doesn't look good for any of us.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
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Time for that kind of Florida rain for Texas, getting awfully dry over here
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I posted it first. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.