Hurricanes Igor and Tomas get their names retired

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2011

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The names Tomas and Igor will no longer be used to name hurricanes in the Atlantic, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced this March. Hurricane Igor made landfall near Cape Race, Newfoundland on September 21, 2010, and was that island's most damaging hurricane in 75 years, with $200 million in damage. Hurricane Tomas smashed through the Lesser Antilles Islands on October 30 - 31, 2010, dealing a particularly harsh blow to St. Lucia, where eight died and damage was estimated at $500 million. Tomas also killed 35 people on Haiti, and contributed to a cholera epidemic that killed thousands.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after flood waters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas taken at 10:30am EDT Saturday October 30, 2010, as the storm began lashing the Lesser Antilles. At the time, Tomas was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The retirement of hurricane names
The WMO maintains a list of hurricane names for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific that repeats itself every six years. The names Igor and Tomas in the Atlantic would have appeared again in 2016, but will be replaced by Ian and Tobias. Each spring, the WMO meets to decide if any names should be retired from the list, due to notable death or destruction caused by one of the past season's storms. Any country that is a member of the WMO can request that a name be retired. If a country seriously affected by a hurricane does not request retirement of the name, then the name will not be retired. In the recent past, Mexico, in particular, has been reluctant to request retirement significant storms that have affected them. In 2010, two significant hurricanes affected the country, but Mexico chose not to request retirement of either: Hurricane Alex, which killed twelve people and did $1.5 billion in damage, and Hurricane Karl, which killed 22 and did $206 million in damage. Back in 2005, Mexico also did not request retirement of Hurricane Emily, which made two landfalls in Mexico as a major hurricane, destroying thousands of buildings, but not claiming any lives. A new storm named Emily will appear this year, as we are recycling the names from 2005 that were not retired (2005 holds the record for most retired names, with five.) Probably the best example of a hurricane that did not get its name retired, but deserved to, was Hurricane Gordon of 1994, which killed 1145 people on Haiti. Haiti did not send a representative to the 1995 WMO meeting when retirements for 1994 were decided. Gordon did not affect any other countries strongly enough to motivate them to request retirement, and the name Gordon will be used again in 2012.

Since Atlantic hurricanes began getting women's names in 1953, 76 names have been retired, an average of 1.3 retired names per year. The list includes one tropical storm, Allison of 2001, that caused billions in damage from its heavy rains. The storm with the most appearances so far is Arlene, which has appeared nine times: 1959, 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005. Arlene will make its tenth appearance this year. One exception to the retirement rule: before 1979, some storm names were simply dropped. For example, in 1966, Fern was substituted for Frieda, and no reason was given. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002. All of these storms hit Mexico.

Cool Katrina animation
A new visualization created by Advanced Visualization Laboratory at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois shows Hurricane Katrina spinning over the Gulf of Mexico during a 36-hour period in August, 2005. The animation is part of a full-length planetarium film called Dynamic Earth screened at the Fulldome UK festival on March 12 - 13. You can see the video at the newscientist.com or DynamicEarth web sites. The video description: Trajectories follow moist air rising into intense "hot tower" thunderstorms, and trace strong winds around the eye wall; rapidly rising air is yellow, sinking air blue. The sun, moon, and stars show the passing of time. The visualization highlights Katrina's awesome power and fierce beauty.

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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554. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST March 29 2011
================================================= ===

A tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or so before moving southwest into the Timor Sea. The low is expected to gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
========================================

Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: High
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Quoting stillwaiting:
guessing tampa areas bout due for cane,that should provide that ts,lol


stop it, that aint even funny, LOL
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280821
SPC AC 280821

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4 /THURSDAY/...SWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WHERE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

SOME REMNANT SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL DAY 5 WITH
OTHERWISE LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEYOND DAY 5 MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOME DISPERSIVE WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY...BUT
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 7 OR 8.

..DIAL.. 03/28/2011

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
guessing tampa areas bout due for cane,that should provide that ts,lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Just a reminder that 30mph winds in Florida is not darn Windy. But, 75mph does quilify......HEHEHEHEHE


This is true, 30 mph gusts is a slight breeze in Florida :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
Quoting stillwaiting:
5.07inches here in coastal sarasota over the last 24hrs,rains stopped but its darn windy right now gusting to 30mph!!


Just a reminder that 30mph winds in Florida is not darn Windy. But, 75mph does quilify......HEHEHEHEHE
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5.07inches here in coastal sarasota over the last 24hrs,rains stopped but its darn windy right now gusting to 30mph!!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Looks like we are gonna have possibly another 2 to 4 inches of rain between now and Friday :)

Thursday/friday could get a little frisky too, the SPC is laready issuing a long term product on the severe weather threat in Central Florida. Even though the GFS backed off on the cutoff low, the severe threat may still hold tough.

Its a good thing a cutoff low won't develop though, it would go from drought in Florida to dangerous flooding, a deep cutoff low tapping 2 inch PW's could produce 12 inch totals.

It doesn't look like we will be seeing that though, the GFS has backed off on the cutoff low. However, models still support very heavy rain and strong to possibly severe storms with the next system.



Yep the cutoff Low went POOOFFF!! Thata be a good thing!
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I made a few changes to the Severe Weather tab at my site. Hope you all like.
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How much rain could jacksonville,florida get from the next system?
Member Since: August 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 251
Quoting TampaSpin:



Looks like we are gonna have possibly another 2 to 4 inches of rain between now and Friday :)

Thursday/friday could get a little frisky too, the SPC is laready issuing a long term product on the severe weather threat in Central Florida. Even though the GFS backed off on the cutoff low, the severe threat may still hold tough.

Its a good thing a cutoff low won't develop though, it would go from drought in Florida to dangerous flooding, a deep cutoff low tapping 2 inch PW's could produce 12 inch totals.

It doesn't look like we will be seeing that though, the GFS has backed off on the cutoff low. However, models still support very heavy rain and strong to possibly severe storms with the next system.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
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540. Skyepony (Mod)
Situation Update No. 1
On 28.03.2011 at 19:31 GMT+2

Japan’s Meteorological Agency, Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center issued an ash warning for Sakurajima Volcano which is considered ‘very dangerous’. Sakurajima (also spelled Sakurashima or Sakura-jima in Japanese) volcano in southern Kyushu is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, and one of the few that are at present in constant (persistant) activity. Its ongoing typical activity range from strong strombolian to large ash explosions every 4-24 hours. The volcano is located across Kagoshima Bay only 8 km east of the city of Kagoshima with a population of half a million. Sakurajima’s eruptive history has been recorded since the 8th century. It has frequently deposited ash on Kagoshima, and due to its explosive potential, considered a very dangerous volcano and closely monitored. The largest historical eruptions of Sakurajima took place during 1471-76 and in 1914.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37329
Quoting Levi32:


True, but an unchangeable fact is that the U.S. is kind of overdue for some bigger strikes now, and both of the last deep 2nd-year La Ninas (1999 and 2008) both resulted in lots of U.S. landfalls. Folks should be prepared regardless. Forecasting hurricane track spreads and not just total numbers is still a relatively new practice.


About all one can do is look at the present conditions and then look at past history for the same general conditions to conclude what the greater possiblitites might bring.


And also drink a lot of Budweiser when predicting so..:)
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Quoting presslord:


yea...but...everybody said the same thing this time last year,,,


True, but an unchangeable fact is that the U.S. is kind of overdue for some bigger strikes now, and both of the last deep 2nd-year La Ninas (1999 and 2008) both resulted in lots of U.S. landfalls. Folks should be prepared regardless. Forecasting hurricane track spreads and not just total numbers is still a relatively new practice.
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537. Skyepony (Mod)
Buoys in the GOM
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37329
Speeding Up Mother Nature's Very Own CO2 Mitigation Process
ScienceDaily (Jan. 19, 2011) — Using seawater and calcium to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) in a natural gas power plant's flue stream, and then pumping the resulting calcium bicarbonate in the sea, could be beneficial to the oceans' marine life.

Greg Rau, a senior scientist with the Institute of Marine Sciences at UC Santa Cruz and who also works in the Carbon Management Program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, conducted a series of lab-scale experiments to find out if a seawater/mineral carbonate (limestone) gas scrubber would remove enough CO2 to be effective, and whether the resulting substance -- dissolved calcium bicarbonate -- could then be stored in the ocean where it might also benefit marine life.

If the carbon dioxide reacted with crushed limestone and seawater, and the resulting solution was released to the ocean, this would not only sequester carbon from the atmosphere, but also would add ocean alkalinity that would help buffer and offset the effects of ongoing marine acidification. Again, this speeds up the natural CO2

Link
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535. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20102011
4:00 AM RET March 29 2011
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 8 (1005 hPa) located at 11.0S 88.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 10.5S 87.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.1S 86.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 09.9S 85.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 10.3S 84.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=========================
For the last 24 hours, deep convection has organized near the low level clockwise circulation mainly in the southern part of the system. However, at this time, low level circulation center is difficult to localize, but seem partially visible north of convection.

Within the next 72 hours, system should move west northwest and substantially slowing down due to opposite steering currents (westerly near equatorial flow and easterly flow north of the subtropical ridge). It might slightly intensify with good poleward inflow (but poor equatorial inflow), Favorable sea surface temperature (> 29C) and good upper level conditions (weak wind shear and very good poleward divergence - CF CIMSS analysis).

Beyond, system should recurve southward toward a high mid level trough passing in the south. Then intensification might be faster with establishment of a very good poleward outflow channel.

The forecast is based on CEP numerical weather prediction model 1200z.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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A stationary low fighting the shear of the front?

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OK, you answered..
thanks.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Hypuweather thinks the U.S mainland will see more threats this year.I agree with them on that.

Why do you think so ?
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Quoting presslord:


yea...but...everybody said the same thing this time last year,,,
Well I've noticed that the A/B high can be affected by the Enso.And since some of the models were forecasting a moderate to strong La nina by then I wasn't to worried.The same can be said for a strong El nino.However for weak La nina/El nino,and nutreal conditions the U.S is always at a risk.So with most of the models pointing twords nutreal,and the La nina weakning I think the U.S is at risk this year.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Hypuweather thinks the U.S mainland will see more threats this year.I agree with them on that.


yea...but...everybody said the same thing this time last year,,,
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Looks like Hypuweather thinks the U.S mainland will see more threats this year.I agree with them on that.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Stopped here not too long ago too. There'll be more tomorrow.


Wow! Looks like it.

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From 5 to about 6 PM today here in Boca, the rain has been coming down really REALLY hard and even some minor flooding occured on my block which rarely occurs unless during a TC. But the winds haven't been all that bad, just a gust to about 20 MPH during a moderate to heavy shower when I was in school 2nd Period at around 11 AM. I saw it because my seat is right next to a window. But wassup with the upcoming hurricane season? I have the feeling it won't be so fortunate for the US (including Florida), less lucky than last year but probably better for Central America, maybe not though.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Rain finally stopped here. What a day!


Stopped here not too long ago too. There'll be more tomorrow.
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Quoting severstorm:

That would be me in that chuck of land north of you.I at 5.25 inches. looks to be ending with in the hour.Thats enough for one day. Must of been dry no puddles around.


Dang that's impressive!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
Quoting bappit:
"after it modelled the rapid rise of levels in the dam"

Not sure what that means. Did they observe rapid rises and then attempt to determine the cause with computer models?


There appears to be a building story on this:

"...On Jan 9th, SEQWater engineers wanted to release significantly higher volumes of water from Wivenhoe Dam to increase storage capacity to manage intensifying rainfall and increasing catchment run-off...

But it took until January 11, when levels in the dam were still rising and just 70cm away from triggering the fuse plug, for SEQWater to release huge volumes at a flow rate of an unprecedented 7500 cubic metres per second, which caused most of the flooding in the Brisbane River..."

Link

So, they've checked the logs, including data from the rainfall gauges.

"...Entries in the "flood event log" for the devastating Brisbane River flood reveal that the senior engineers in charge knew by 7.10pm on Sunday, January 9, that high releases of water from Wivenhoe Dam would be needed "in view of heavy rain over the last three hours".

The entries also show that senior engineers proposed more than doubling the releases, from 1400 cubic metres a second (cumecs) to between 3000 and 3500 cumecs that Sunday night to give the dam more storage capacity to manage the flood and intensifying rainfall..."

Link

Now it's appearing that the "extreme rain" data is not true (as referenced in the first story).

Investigation is still going on.

The full report is here:

Brisbane Flooding January 2011 - An Avoidable Disaster
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Rain finally stopped here. What a day!
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In the meantime, it looks like the dryseason is finally here. (Trinidad)
3 months late.

We all hope the Rainy season starts, as it should, in June.
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SPC Mesoscale Analysis
Auto-refresh is set to every minute [OFF 1 min 5 min]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting bappit:

Storms are firing up out in the GOM. Will they move eastwards and persist?

Slowly moving East...
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Quoting bappit:

Storms are firing up out in the GOM. Will they move eastwards and persist?


It's looking like they will.
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Quoting sunlinepr:

Storms are firing up out in the GOM. Will they move eastwards and persist?
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510. beell
503. aquak9
a good bean burrito will do that...


That does have an air of truth to it.
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"after it modelled the rapid rise of levels in the dam"

Not sure what that means. Did they observe rapid rises and then attempt to determine the cause with computer models?
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Quoting Patrap:
Ghost town: Area around Chernobyl still deserted after 25 years

That's only because of overhype. There's nothing wrong with irradiated soil and groundwater. If the environmentalist wackos would just stop their alarmist nonsense, Pripyat would be a thriving community, perhaps the healthiest and most productive in all the Ukraine thanks to the beneficial effects of eating a locally-grown diet loaded with iodine and strontium. But, no, the illogical anti-nuke people had to come out with all their talk of acute radiation sickness and fetal deformation and cancers and tumors. Bunch of spoil sports, if you ask me...
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IAEA Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident Update (28 March, 23:00 UTC)

Japan Confirms Plutonium in Soil Samples at Fukushima Daiichi.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Operator of dam 'invented' rain data

"...EXTREME rainfall so rare it happens on average once every 2000 years has been "invented" by the government operator of a major Queensland dam as part of its explanation for releasing huge volumes of water that caused most of Brisbane's January flood.

The claim by SEQWater in its official report that a "one-in-2000-year" rainfall event occurred over the Wivenhoe Dam at a critical stage on January 11 has been widely reported in the media and cited by senior public servants to justify the near loss of control of the dam at the time.

But no such rainfall event was measured by any rainfall gauges. Instead, the claim was manufactured by SEQWater after it modelled the rapid rise of levels in the dam, repositioned rainfall data to an area immediately upstream of the dam, and then doubled it.

After extrapolating in this unusual way to achieve an extreme number, the SEQWater report states: "Rainfall of this intensity and duration over the Wivenhoe Dam lake area at such a critical stage of a flood event was unprecedented.

"The resulting run-off could not be contained without transition to (an operating strategy that led to the operator opening the dam's gate for huge releases)."

Senior independent engineer Michael O'Brien, who has spent the past nine weeks analysing the performance of the dam and SEQWater, said that while the rainfall was heavy, he did not believe it was extreme and he doubted it was ever close to the range claimed by the operator.

Mr O'Brien, who has mounted a strong case that the devastating floods in and near Brisbane would have been almost completely avoided with better management of the dam, said the one-in-2000-year event was an "invention" that could not be taken seriously..."

Operator of dam 'invented' rain data

So it wasn't so much the "extreme" rain that caused most of Brisbane's January flood damage, but an untimely release of the dam's water.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Ghost town: Area around Chernobyl still deserted after 25 years
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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