Spring snowstorm adds to flooding potential for the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:52 PM GMT on March 24, 2011

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A major spring snowstorm dumped heavy snow in excess of six inches over a wide swath of the Upper Midwest this week, adding to a snowpack that is already near or in excess of record levels over Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This is bad news for residents in flood-prone areas of the Upper Midwest, as the new storm added more than half an inch of melted rainfall equivalent to the record wet snowpack. When all that snow melts in April, we can expect major and possibly record flooding for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and the Upper Mississippi River north of St. Louis, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Their March Spring Flood Outlook released last week warned: A large swath of the North Central United States is at risk of moderate to major flooding this spring. Heavy late summer and autumn precipitation have left soils saturated and streams running high before the winter freeze-up. National Weather Service models show this year's snowpack contains a water content ranked among the highest of the last 60 years, which is similar to the past two years. This threat area extends from northeastern Montana through Wisconsin and along the Mississippi River south to St. Louis. For the third consecutive year, forecasters predict major flooding along the Red River of the North, which forms the state line between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other areas of the Midwest primed for major flooding include Devils Lake in North Dakota, the Milk River in Northeastern Montana, the James and Big Sioux Rivers in South Dakota, the Minnesota River, and the Mississippi River from its headwaters near St. Paul, Minnesota, downstream to St. Louis.


Figure 1. U.S. spring 2011 flood risk. Image credit: NWS.


Figure 2. NOAA's latest significant river flood outlook shows that spring flooding is already occurring over South Dakota and on the Mississippi River near its junction with the Ohio River, but is not yet widespread across the Upper Midwest.

There is a huge amount of snow on the ground in North Dakota along the tributaries of the Red River, thanks to fall precipitation that was 150% - 300% of normal, and winter snows that have dumped up to 400% more precipitation than usual. If one were to melt this snow, it would amount to 4 - 6 inches of rain. If heavy rains occur at the same time that the snow melts, there is the potential for the greatest flood in history to affect the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, the largest and third largest cities in North Dakota. NWS is giving a 35% chance that Fargo will see its greatest flood in history this spring, up from the 20% chance they gave in their February spring flood outlook.

The situation is similar in Minnesota, which has received about double its normal precipitation over the past 3 to 4 months, resulting in the 5th snowiest winter on record in Minneapolis. Snow depths are in excess of 20 inches over wide swaths of of the state, and this snow has a very high water content equivalent to 4 - 6 inches of rain. NWS is giving a 95% chance that the Mississippi River at St. Paul will exceed major flood stage this spring.

In South Dakota, heavy snows this winter have also left a snowpack with a high water content over the northeast corner of the state. The NWS is predicting a 25% chance that the the James River at Huron, SD will reach its highest flood height in history, and a 50% chance for the Big Sioux River at Brookings, SD.


Figure 3. The snow water equivalent of the Upper Midwest's snowpack as of March 24, 2011. Large sections of Minnesota and North Dakota have the equivalent of 3.9 - 5.9 inches of rain (purple colors) stored in their snowpack. Image credit: NWS/NOHRSC.

When will all this flooding occur?
The latest guidance from the GFS model predicts winter-like conditions will persist over the Upper Midwest for the next week, with no major storms for the region through early next week. Late next week, there is the potential for a snowstorm that could bring an additional 0.5 - 1" of melted equivalent snow, though this is very uncertain at this point. The first chance of a major thaw will not occur until Sunday, April 3. This will give some time for the current pulse of flood waters generated during last week's warm spell over South Dakota and southern Minnesota to move downstream, and makes the peak of this year's spring flood unlikely to occur until at least the second week of April. Looking back at past great floods in the Upper Midwest, the record 2009 Red River flood peaked on March 28 in Fargo. The great 1997 Red River flood that devastated Grand Forks, causing $3.5 billion in damage, crested on April 18. St. Paul's greatest flood in history crested on April 19, 1965. I expect this year's peak flood will most likely arrive during the 3rd week of April.

Mostly offshore winds expected over Japan for the next week
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will mostly head eastwards out to sea over the next week, thanks to high pressure that will dominate Japan's weather. Latest trajectory plots using NOAA's HYSPLIT model do not show air from the Fukushima plant heading towards Tokyo over the next four days.

Jeff Masters

Not liking Spring (all4paws)
10 inches of snow today. Not good if you're a robin.
Not liking Spring
Spring? (jf)
Spring?
Spring?

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1096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1095. RTLSNK
Definitely an E-ticket ride here this morning.
K5 and I8 coming in now south of me.
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1094. beell
click graphic for text discussion
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Even China is doing better than we are at renewable power. They are currently the number one investor in renewable energy sources and outstrip the US 2-to-1 in spending.

On a completely unrelated note, I just saw this advert at the bottom of the page:

Public Health Alert: Reishi may help avoid radiation injury

I know adverts are necessary, but can you at least have adverts that aren't scaremongering scams?


Not for long.
They're heavily investing in nuclear energy.

Nuclear Power in China
(Updated 10 March 2011)

Mainland China has 13 nuclear power reactors in operation, more than 25 under construction, and more about to start construction soon.
Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give more than a ten-fold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030, and 400 GWe by 2050.
China is rapidly becoming self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle.
Most of mainland China's electricity is produced from fossil fuels (80% from coal, 2% from oil, 1% from gas in 2006) and hydropower (15%). Two large hydro projects are recent additions: Three Gorges of 18.2 GWe and Yellow River of 15.8 GWe. Rapid growth in demand has given rise to power shortages, and the reliance on fossil fuels has led to much air pollution. The economic loss due to pollution is put by the World Bank at almost 6% of GDP.1


world-nuclar.org
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
1092. Grothar
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1091. Patrap
Burials In Quake-Hit Towns Deepen Japan's Tragedy

by The Associated Press



YAMAMOTO, Japan March 27, 2011, 05:05 am ET

The funeral for Chieko Mori's daughter and granddaughter was an affront to Japanese sacred customs — the two were placed in simple wooden coffins that soldiers lowered into a ditch in a vegetable patch as a backhoe poured in earth, burying them alongside scores of other bodies.

Such an unceremonious disposal of the dead would be unthinkable in Japan in normal times. But the devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami have left a huge backlog of thousands of bodies in makeshift morgues, leaving local governments no choice but to bury them in hastily dug mass graves.

In small-town Japan, the funeral is an elaborate and highly formalized Buddhist ritual, in which the body is washed, dressed and cremated, the ashes interred at the family tomb.

So this — mass graves, heavy machinery, improvised rites — is almost unbearable, a tragedy that robs both survivors and the dead of closure.

Since the tragedy, Mori has been in a deep shock and doesn't always respond when spoken to. Her husband, son-in-law, and another granddaughter are also dead, and they will be buried in mass graves in upcoming days. Her sister, Tomiko Sato, came from a nearby town to attend the funeral on Saturday, to relieve Mori of the burden.

"We were told at town hall that they didn't have the resources, and if we wanted proper cremations we could drive the bodies to Yamagata ourselves," Sato said, referring to a neighboring prefecture about 50 miles (80 kilometers) to the west — too far to travel with gasoline so scarce.

"But this is a temporary grave, and the government said they would cremate the bodies within two years, so we can move them to the family grave."

Saturday's mass burial was the first in Yamamoto, a town of 16,700 with about 1,000 dead or missing. Eleven uniform plywood caskets were buried, with 400 more planned in the coming days. A Buddhist priest apologized for the conditions before chanting traditional hymns, and relatives pried off the lids to caress the dead, placing garbage bags full of their belongings inside and later sobbing as white-gloved troops hoisted the coffins away.

For Sato, just finding the bodies was an achievement — she borrowed gas for her car and circled local evacuee centers for two weeks to track down the whole family, who grew strawberries in a coastal area where many houses are completely destroyed. The last to be found was Honoka, a granddaughter in junior high school, whose body was damaged beyond recognition.

"She wasn't wearing her school uniform, but her teacher contacted her boyfriend, who told us about a necklace and a bracelet he had given her. She was wearing both," she said.

The last time the whole family got together was in early December, for take-out sushi at the Mori family's now destroyed home.

The setting at Yamamoto was in stark contrast to a burial earlier in the day at Higashimatsushima, a town about 40 miles (70 kilometers) north up the coast. Soldiers there had dug pits in a muddy field at a recycling center, and a morning ceremony took place in freezing rain, against a backdrop of cubes of crushed plastic bottles and stacks of fluorescent light tubes.

Many relatives were bused in from evacuee centers and arrived in sweat pants and tennis shoes. Soldiers lowered coffins into the long ditches, and an official with a bullhorn called out the names of the dead, apologizing when he mispronounced one. Mourners in white masks sobbed from beneath their umbrellas.

"We lost my wife's father in the tsunami. He wasn't my grandfather, but we were very close, and I called him `gramps.' He was a very kind man — he didn't like to drink but would always buy me a nice bottle of sake," said Koji Ushigome.

His father-in-law, Yuichi Takahashi, died in the tsunami at age 81, and was lowered into the ground in a white wooden coffin, with the number `670' written on the side in black magic marker. Officials were carefully noting the location of the coffins so the remains can one day be exhumed and receive a proper burial.

Officials stressed the temporary nature of the burials, and said they had little choice given the vast number of bodies. The official death toll from the quake and tsunami has passed 10,100, with more than 17,000 listed as missing

"The bodies are fairly decomposed now. These are not funerals, just short-term interments," said town official Toshiaki Aizawa.

Behind him, three cars full of mourners pulled up in the parking lot for the next set of bodies.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The reason they aren't worried is because of the short half life. In 8 days that will drop to a 6 month dose. In another, a 3 month dose. Another, 1.5 month dose. And so on and so forth.

In two months, there will be only a small amount left and by then it will be spread very thinly.

Cesium and to a lesser extent, cobalt, are much more worrying with their longer half lives.

I don't think they're downplaying much. I think the media is overhyping. You'd think the west coast of the US was going to be a Thunderdome-esque radioactive wasteland listening to the 24 hour news networks.

No, they are definitely downplaying. And that's not just my opinion, or the opinion of a few rabid anti-nuclear wackos; that's what nuclear physicists are saying. The only people who think things are being "overhyped" are nuclear industry types.

I would ask this: if there's truly nothing to fear, why the lack of openness by TEPCO and the Japanese government? Why the constant backing and filling? Why the admissions by TEPCO that they have been less than forthcoming? Why the consistent usage of double-speak and vague or obfuscatory language?

I'll go on record again as stating that I'm not worried at all at this point about Fukushima fallout directly affecting the U.S. I'm far more concerned about the lack of foresight shown by the plant's developers. I'm far more concerned about TEPCO's dismissal of warnings about what could happen should a large tsunami wash over the plant. I'm far more concerned with the short-term and long-term affects of all that radiation belching into the Japanese air and sea.

In short, I'm far more concerned about the fact that, as presently instituted, nuclear energy is not clean, it's not safe, and--worst of all--it's far from adequately regulated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man, cyclone Oz should be visiting central GA wherever he is. Severe so far here in Macon:

Tornado Watch: 3
Severe Thunderstorm Watch: 1
Tornado Warning: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: 5
Significant Weather Advisory: 2

We've been in the bulls eye again so far today, looks like this next storm might be the last for now though.
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If you would like an interesting read about a sustainable energy zero carbon energy plan from Melbourne University, go here. It's in PDF format.
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1087. hydrus
Quoting RTLSNK:
Have rain, willing to share, call 1-800-wet-lawn, bring large rain barrels. :)
Shutting Hal down once again. :(
This could end up being another long day for yall..Good morning...Stay safe..:)
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Quoting Chicklit:
Germany is way ahead of everyone else in renewable energy:

In Germany, the installed capacity of renewable power stations has increased significantly during the last years. Since 2000 wind power has the highest capacity of all renewables although hydroelectric power stations normally have more full load hours per year.

Photovoltaic installations have also grown rapidly during the last years. The total installed capacity of power stations in Germany has risen due to the newly installed renewable power stations whereas the capacity of conventional power station has decreased since beginning of the 1990s.

The renewable share of the total capacity has increase more than six times since beginning of the 1990s and reached double-digit numbers. Since the year 2004 the installed renewable capacity in Germany is higher than the nuclear power capacity.

Link


Even China is doing better than we are at renewable power. They are currently the number one investor in renewable energy sources and outstrip the US 2-to-1 in spending.

On a completely unrelated note, I just saw this advert at the bottom of the page:

Public Health Alert: Reishi may help avoid radiation injury

I know adverts are necessary, but can you at least have adverts that aren't scaremongering scams?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Just one of a thousand mixed signals. I just read that a mere one-half liter of the seawater off of Fukushima contains as much radioactive iodine as a person can be safely exposed to in an entire year--followed by the TEPCO people saying, well, yes, that may be true, but it'll be diluted, so there's no need to worry.

Diluted. You know, just like the oil from the BP spill. Just like the mercury from every coal-fired power plant in the world.

To echo aqua: there are soundings of BP in TEPCO's dealings. Early on it was obvious that tens of thousands of barrels of oil were spewing from the Deepwater Horizon well, yet every time some scientists would come up with a very educated estimate, BP would respond by syaing, "Oh, that's too high; it's really no more than a few gallons per day at most." Now every time some high radioactivity reading is released to the public, TEPCO is right there to deny and/or downplay.

It's a depressingly--and predictably--familiar scene.



The reason they aren't worried is because of the short half life. In 8 days that will drop to a 6 month dose. In another, a 3 month dose. Another, 1.5 month dose. And so on and so forth.

In two months, there will be only a small amount left and by then it will be spread very thinly.

Cesium and to a lesser extent, cobalt, are much more worrying with their longer half lives.

I don't think they're downplaying much. I think the media is overhyping. You'd think the west coast of the US was going to be a Thunderdome-esque radioactive wasteland listening to the 24 hour news networks.
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Germany is way ahead of everyone else in renewable energy:

" In Germany, the installed capacity of renewable power stations has increased significantly during the last years. Since 2000 wind power has the highest capacity of all renewables although hydroelectric power stations normally have more full load hours per year.

Photovoltaic installations have also grown rapidly during the last years. The total installed capacity of power stations in Germany has risen due to the newly installed renewable power stations whereas the capacity of conventional power station has decreased since beginning of the 1990s.

The renewable share of the total capacity has increase more than six times since beginning of the 1990s and reached double-digit numbers. Since the year 2004 the installed renewable capacity in Germany is higher than the nuclear power capacity. "

Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Complete Update





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Quoting Skyepony:
I guess it's not offical.. the last 2 days I see were ZAMG figured this was as bad at this point as Chernobyl. Now RSOE EDIS...Malfunctioning at the cooling system (Susp. Level of INES 7- Chernobyl like - accident)

Quoting AussieStorm:
Found this website that has updates on the nuclear situation in Japan.


Seems like one of the water systems that directly supply coolant sprung a leak with radiation levels that high.
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End times

Lookin forward to cane season and regular F5 events (in the blog)

maybe a Weatherstudent / JFV sighting

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
There is snow on the ground in Luray,VA. This is WRONG. It is an Immutable Law of Nature that it may not snow in the Shenandoah Valley after St. Patty's Day.


It is the 27th of March in Central Virginia ----- it is 29° and it is snowing.

Go figure!

Have 2 inches on the ground and expect another inch before noon.

Good grief.

I am not really in Dutch Harbor --- am I?

Nope -- Dutch is warmer and it isn't snowing.

LOL What crazy weather we are having.
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There is snow on the ground in Luray,VA. This is WRONG. It is an Immutable Law of Nature that it may not snow in the Shenandoah Valley after St. Patty's Day.
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Found this website that has updates on the nuclear situation in Japan.
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Looks like CycloneOz is having fun these days. Those are pretty cool shows, Oz!
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Quoting Skyepony:
I guess it's not offical.. the last 2 days I see were ZAMG figured this was as bad at this point as Chernobyl. Now RSOE EDIS...Malfunctioning at the cooling system (Susp. Level of INES 7- Chernobyl like - accident)


Just one of a thousand mixed signals. I just read that a mere one-half liter of the seawater off of Fukushima contains as much radioactive iodine as a person can be safely exposed to in an entire year--followed by the TEPCO people saying, well, yes, that may be true, but it'll be diluted, so there's no need to worry.

Diluted. You know, just like the oil from the BP spill. Just like the mercury from every coal-fired power plant in the world.

To echo aqua: there are soundings of BP in TEPCO's dealings. Early on it was obvious that tens of thousands of barrels of oil were spewing from the Deepwater Horizon well, yet every time some scientists would come up with a very educated estimate, BP would respond by syaing, "Oh, that's too high; it's really no more than a few gallons per day at most." Now every time some high radioactivity reading is released to the public, TEPCO is right there to deny and/or downplay.

It's a depressingly--and predictably--familiar scene.

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Good morning, we have another beautiful spring day in Florida until the much-needed rain arrives this week.

610 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY...MOVING TO SOUTH GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO AUGUSTA.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG A CARROLLTON TO EATONTON LINE...
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. AS A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ALABAMA...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000 TO 2000 WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-1 ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

$$




Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Morning all. I would have been in here sooner, but got distracted watching a Tennessee Williams film with Ron Howard's daughter in it. I laughed till I cried... though somehow I don't think that was TWs intended audience reaction...

Oh, WX..... weather's great here today.... who knows how long it will last ....

I'm out for the nonce... have a great Sunday...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1072. Skyepony (Mod)
I guess it's not offical.. the last 2 days I see were ZAMG figured this was as bad at this point as Chernobyl. Now RSOE EDIS...Malfunctioning at the cooling system (Susp. Level of INES 7- Chernobyl like - accident)

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1071. beell
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL AND WILL VARY LOCALLY...DEPENDING ON STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES AND FORTUITOUS SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS


That's just what I was thinking.

Frontal zone/outflow boundary on visible fromSC/Central GA and on into LA.






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION
EWD TO CSTL GA/NRN FL/SRN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S...ON SRN SIDE OF
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER CNTRL CANADA. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER
CO SHOULD REACH ERN KS/NE OK BY THIS EVE...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING
SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES E INTO ERN KY/ERN TN BY 12Z MON.
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT...AT BEST...
ONLY VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
AFFECT REGIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH /I.E...FROM E TX AND LA TO THE
GA-SC CST/.

AT LWR LVLS...FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM
SRN SC/CNTRL GA WSW INTO SRN LA/SE TX EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY S
THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHALLOW BUT VERY COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
MS VLY/GRT LKS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. A WEAK WAVE/
INFLECTION MAY PERSIST OVER GA TODAY...NEAR INTERSECTION OF FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
.

...CNTRL GULF CST INTO AL/GA/SRN SC AND FAR NRN FL...
SVR THREAT AND STORM COVERAGE EACH SHOULD MAXIMIZE THIS AFTN ALONG
AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHERE COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING AND RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ SHOULD
YIELD MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY
WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF STG MID AND UPR-LVL FLOW /50-60
KTS AT 500 MB AND 90-110 KTS AT 250 MB/ WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP
SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE WINDS FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION TO EPISODIC STORMS ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A BAND OF
STORMS ALSO MAY FORM FARTHER S WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
.. SUPPORTED BY
925-850 MB CONFLUENCE FROM SE AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO S
GA.

WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH 40-50 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR LIKELY TO BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
. THIS MAY FOSTER THREAT FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. TORNADOES
ALSO MAY OCCUR. BUT GIVEN OVERALL SETUP...TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL AND WILL VARY LOCALLY...DEPENDING ON STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES AND FORTUITOUS SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE
SAVANNAH RVR VLY OF ERN GA/SC. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LVL
STABILIZATION.

....ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY...
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF CO UPR IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR AND
LOW-LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO ERN AR/NRN LA. CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML WILL
ENHANCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
...WITH POCKETS/STREAKS OF 1500 J/KG
MUCAPE POSSIBLE. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP
COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL.

...MID/UPR TX GULF CST... A VERY CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SVR SFC-BASED STORMS MAY EVOLVE
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST...WHERE A SECONDARY BRANCH OF
LOW-LVL INFLOW WILL IMPINGE ON WRN END OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF EML CAP AND THE REGION/S DISTANCE FROM CNTRL PLNS
UPR IMPULSE...LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT ATTM LOOKS LOW.

HOWEVER...REGION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF
LOW SVR PROBABILITIES IN LATER OTLKS.

..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/27/2011
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
If anyone wants to see the weather around Japan, go here, select 24hrs then press play.
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1069. RTLSNK
Have rain, willing to share, call 1-800-wet-lawn, bring large rain barrels. :)
Shutting Hal down once again. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


That dry line is exploding........be careful people. Have a good day! Its gonna be rocking it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1067. aquak9
oh no!! it's the two-tone talk guy again!!

don't worry- just like all the oil in the gulf of mexico, all this radiation will magicly disappear, too.

how do you spell magicly? ok, nevermind

wait- the oil was never there in the first place, right? no...uhm, oil is good for us. So is radiation.

This really is BP all over again. First my seafood, now my spinach.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
1066. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yea, Kyodo ran a very brief scrolling headline a bit ago that said something to the effect of, "TEPCO says '10 million times' reading slightly erroneous"

That's very comforting.


Maybe they just wanted to sound less "vociferous"
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
owhl here ya are Robin Eugene Rudabager Frances Ugene Baker with a two headed two tone triple g scream!
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
msnbc.msn.com:

BREAKING NEWS: Operators of Japan nuclear plant say huge spike in radiation levels was a mistake


I love the language. It was definitely a mistake, but were the readings inaccurate?

Those examining the injured workers estimated that they had been exposed to 2 to 6 Sv. That is on the basis of a physical exam and the damage to the skin. Not sure what kind of (significant) error can be made there.

It was stated that the radiation level at the water surface was 1000 mSv. At that rate, and given the 250 mSv maximum annual dosage, an unexposed worker could work for max 15 minutes to stay below 250 mSv. If there is external contamination (there will be) the time will be shorter to allow for decontamination of garments, skin scrubbing etc. within the safe exposure window.

More bodies buried. They even tried to sow confusion on which reactor was having the problems. "It's no. 3 ... no, sorry, it's no. 2." I'm suspecting that the truth will arrive long after the problems are experienced going forward. Unless we see something REALLY blatant, like a massive steam explosion. Just like BP, they will hide it and worry more about the financial consequences than about the unfolding disaster itself. Or so it seems.

WTO

WTO




CRAZY
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yea, Kyodo ran a very brief scrolling headline a bit ago that said something to the effect of, "TEPCO says '10 million times' reading slightly erroneous"

That's very comforting.


I like that "slightly" that they slid in there. Maybe it's only 9.5 million times more radioactive.
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growing crisis? cnn been calling the fuji gig for two weeks now if it was corn it would be 10 ft tall.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4329
msnbc.msn.com:

BREAKING NEWS: Operators of Japan nuclear plant say huge spike in radiation levels was a mistake


I love the language. It was definitely a mistake, but were the readings inaccurate?

Those examining the injured workers estimated that they had been exposed to 2 to 6 Sv. That is on the basis of a physical exam and the damage to the skin. Not sure what kind of (significant) error can be made there.

It was stated that the radiation level at the water surface was 1000 mSv. At that rate, and given the 250 mSv maximum annual dosage, an unexposed worker could work for max 15 minutes to stay below 250 mSv. If there is external contamination (there will be) the time will be shorter to allow for decontamination of garments, skin scrubbing etc. within the safe exposure window.

More bodies buried. They even tried to sow confusion on which reactor was having the problems. "It's no. 3 ... no, sorry, it's no. 2." I'm suspecting that the truth will arrive long after the problems are experienced going forward. Unless we see something REALLY blatant, like a massive steam explosion. Just like BP, they will hide it and worry more about the financial consequences than about the unfolding disaster itself. Or so it seems.

WTO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sotv:


BBC reporting the 10 million reading was erroneous but no idea yet what the correct reading should have been.....

Yea, Kyodo ran a very brief scrolling headline a bit ago that said something to the effect of, "TEPCO says '10 million times' reading slightly erroneous"

That's very comforting.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all, hope everyones enjoying their weekend.

I just took a quick look at the SST's in the ATL. For the most part - they're average to above average particularly in the GOMEX, while the Caribbean remains pretty cool compared to 2010.


If I had to determine an 'analog year' just based on the SST patterns in place - I'd go with 2008.


I have really missed those SST maps. I look forward to seeing hundreds more as we go forward into the season. j/k, although there is some truth to it.

Edit: it seems the warm temperatures extend significantly further north in the MDR than at this time in 2008. There is much more to it than SST, of course.
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Quoting sotv:


BBC reporting the 10 million reading was erroneous but no idea yet what the correct reading should have been.....


I've heard that line before. And others like it. I am assuming the worst until somebody says or does something sensible to cause me to change my mind. "Confusion" or "errors" won't do it. That quota has been used up.

WTO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all, hope everyones enjoying their weekend.

I just took a quick look at the SST's in the ATL. For the most part - they're average to above average particularly in the GOMEX, while the Caribbean remains pretty cool compared to 2010.


If I had to determine an 'analog year' just based on the SST patterns in place - I'd go with 2008. Major difference though is off the Caribbean islands.
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1054. Jax82
Sure doesnt look like rain today looking outside now, 70 degrees, not a cloud in the sky. Should be a good beach day even if a forecast for rain!
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Quoting aquak9:
Nea...I did not realize I took a RECREATIONAL DOSE, ok?

ya'll enjoy the day, peace man, right on.


lol - morning Aqua. we are all doom.
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1052. sotv
Quoting NWwatcher:


To give an idea of how bad this is, according to CNN the isotope involved is I-134 which has about a 1 hour half-life. With that short a half life, ALL of the I-134 would be gone in 24 hours. That means it is still being produced from fission reactions inside the system or the levels were insanely high a few days ago (think trillions of Sv/hr dose rates)


BBC reporting the 10 million reading was erroneous but no idea yet what the correct reading should have been.....
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1051. aquak9
Nea...I did not realize I took a RECREATIONAL DOSE, ok?

ya'll enjoy the day, peace man, right on.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Quoting aquak9:
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.

Yeah, they used vociferous--but neither correctly nor in the proper context. Loss of 15 yards for inappropriate use of a thesaurus...

The Delsym wearing off yet? ;-)
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1049. aquak9
Rasta- I know you mean well...but PLEASE do not TEASE me with rain and severe. I am like addicted to that stuff. There will be no severe over my roof, not today, not this week.

Altho my dewpoint and temp are close, I simply do not feel that "heebie jeebie" feeling I get when there's gonna be a severe outbreak. B'sides...it just never gets like that here. That last 2 times that SPC put me under a mod risk? I did not even see a DROP of rain.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
1047. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.
lol

Just trying to give you hope!
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1046. aquak9
Vociferous??

now I KNOW I'm still whacked- they really used the word "vociferous" in a weather discussion??

Ike- groovy colors man..wavy like gravy, like psychodelic syrup...you are one hip cat in my book.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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