Spring snowstorm adds to flooding potential for the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:52 PM GMT on March 24, 2011

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A major spring snowstorm dumped heavy snow in excess of six inches over a wide swath of the Upper Midwest this week, adding to a snowpack that is already near or in excess of record levels over Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This is bad news for residents in flood-prone areas of the Upper Midwest, as the new storm added more than half an inch of melted rainfall equivalent to the record wet snowpack. When all that snow melts in April, we can expect major and possibly record flooding for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and the Upper Mississippi River north of St. Louis, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Their March Spring Flood Outlook released last week warned: A large swath of the North Central United States is at risk of moderate to major flooding this spring. Heavy late summer and autumn precipitation have left soils saturated and streams running high before the winter freeze-up. National Weather Service models show this year's snowpack contains a water content ranked among the highest of the last 60 years, which is similar to the past two years. This threat area extends from northeastern Montana through Wisconsin and along the Mississippi River south to St. Louis. For the third consecutive year, forecasters predict major flooding along the Red River of the North, which forms the state line between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other areas of the Midwest primed for major flooding include Devils Lake in North Dakota, the Milk River in Northeastern Montana, the James and Big Sioux Rivers in South Dakota, the Minnesota River, and the Mississippi River from its headwaters near St. Paul, Minnesota, downstream to St. Louis.


Figure 1. U.S. spring 2011 flood risk. Image credit: NWS.


Figure 2. NOAA's latest significant river flood outlook shows that spring flooding is already occurring over South Dakota and on the Mississippi River near its junction with the Ohio River, but is not yet widespread across the Upper Midwest.

There is a huge amount of snow on the ground in North Dakota along the tributaries of the Red River, thanks to fall precipitation that was 150% - 300% of normal, and winter snows that have dumped up to 400% more precipitation than usual. If one were to melt this snow, it would amount to 4 - 6 inches of rain. If heavy rains occur at the same time that the snow melts, there is the potential for the greatest flood in history to affect the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, the largest and third largest cities in North Dakota. NWS is giving a 35% chance that Fargo will see its greatest flood in history this spring, up from the 20% chance they gave in their February spring flood outlook.

The situation is similar in Minnesota, which has received about double its normal precipitation over the past 3 to 4 months, resulting in the 5th snowiest winter on record in Minneapolis. Snow depths are in excess of 20 inches over wide swaths of of the state, and this snow has a very high water content equivalent to 4 - 6 inches of rain. NWS is giving a 95% chance that the Mississippi River at St. Paul will exceed major flood stage this spring.

In South Dakota, heavy snows this winter have also left a snowpack with a high water content over the northeast corner of the state. The NWS is predicting a 25% chance that the the James River at Huron, SD will reach its highest flood height in history, and a 50% chance for the Big Sioux River at Brookings, SD.


Figure 3. The snow water equivalent of the Upper Midwest's snowpack as of March 24, 2011. Large sections of Minnesota and North Dakota have the equivalent of 3.9 - 5.9 inches of rain (purple colors) stored in their snowpack. Image credit: NWS/NOHRSC.

When will all this flooding occur?
The latest guidance from the GFS model predicts winter-like conditions will persist over the Upper Midwest for the next week, with no major storms for the region through early next week. Late next week, there is the potential for a snowstorm that could bring an additional 0.5 - 1" of melted equivalent snow, though this is very uncertain at this point. The first chance of a major thaw will not occur until Sunday, April 3. This will give some time for the current pulse of flood waters generated during last week's warm spell over South Dakota and southern Minnesota to move downstream, and makes the peak of this year's spring flood unlikely to occur until at least the second week of April. Looking back at past great floods in the Upper Midwest, the record 2009 Red River flood peaked on March 28 in Fargo. The great 1997 Red River flood that devastated Grand Forks, causing $3.5 billion in damage, crested on April 18. St. Paul's greatest flood in history crested on April 19, 1965. I expect this year's peak flood will most likely arrive during the 3rd week of April.

Mostly offshore winds expected over Japan for the next week
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will mostly head eastwards out to sea over the next week, thanks to high pressure that will dominate Japan's weather. Latest trajectory plots using NOAA's HYSPLIT model do not show air from the Fukushima plant heading towards Tokyo over the next four days.

Jeff Masters

Not liking Spring (all4paws)
10 inches of snow today. Not good if you're a robin.
Not liking Spring
Spring? (jf)
Spring?
Spring?

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thanks Paka....
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Quoting hydrus:
It will be stormy for the eastern half of the country for at least two weeks... Check out the GFS if you have a moment...Link
Ohhhhh.I just want it to be warm again.I like my highs in the low to mid 80's,and night time lows in the lower 60's.With low humidity of course.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16720
Quoting cat5hurricane:

The Mighty Mississppi have quite a few of them especially between La Crosse, Wisconsin down to Saint Louis, Missouri. I want to say there is at least 25 or 30 of them in that stretch.

In regards to the lack of retention ponds, they really are more or less the "crescent" and "horseshoe" lakes that the river left when it overflowed it's banks and begun a new course--a process that happens over hundreds of years.

From my memory of geology classes way back in the day, I don't think oxbow lakes can be considered retention ponds - they are more just a part of the natural floodplain. Retention ponds are designed more to retain runoff and mid-to-low level flooding events that are caused by or exacerbated by man-made development, such as highways and housing.
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oh here is a really cool diagram of the mississippi river locks system, plus height above sea level, too

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Upper_Mississip pi_River_Stairway_of_Water.png

sorry, work computer giving me a hard time here

I don't think those radiation suits would even hold up against MUD
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25835
Quoting aquak9:
As for the packing tape, it is likely there to keep the bottom of the suit from shifting and/or opening up avenues to exposure. The tape isn't there to create a seal by itself. (think about it - when you pack a box, and place tape over all the seams)

yeah, but jeffs...if this was USA, I don't think you would see workers with TAPE HOLDING THEIR ANTI-RADIATION SUITS TOGETHER

and actually those suits look pretty weak...

Well, IMO, they look to be built on just stopping alpha particles... and not much else. IMO, they should be utilizing full radiation suits, with independent air supplies.
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Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Amy asked a question so I was looking up a couple of resources for her. The answer I received was she should contact her county emergency management or go to their website. I check a couple of county website and can say they need to improve their accessability. The verbal answer I was able to obtain (without specific street address) is there is very few areas of concerns for those living east of the San Deigo Freeway (5) and some areas of concern for those living between Highway 1 and the interstate. The majority of responses (verbal and e-mail) were to check the county web site.

No worries... not getting cranky or anything... just wondering where everyone except Nea, Amy, and I went for like 30 mins.
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As for the packing tape, it is likely there to keep the bottom of the suit from shifting and/or opening up avenues to exposure. The tape isn't there to create a seal by itself. (think about it - when you pack a box, and place tape over all the seams)

yeah, but jeffs...if this was USA, I don't think you would see workers with TAPE HOLDING THEIR ANTI-RADIATION SUITS TOGETHER

and actually those suits look pretty weak...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25835
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Well Jeff, I can add a few things why at least the Red River Valley is highly susceptible to flooding.

It's home to a river channel that meanders very much and is also very shallow. Thus, over-bank flooding is more frequent. Also interesting is the northerly directional flow of the river. What happens is when the upstream (southern) part of the river thaws faster than the downstream part (up north), the water begins to move downstream (from the south to the north) over the still frozen river channel to the north or upstream. Subsequently, you will see greater probabilities of ice jams and backwater flow to the north where the water is flowing.

Not to mention the Red River Valley has a gentle slope (averaging 0.5 to 1.5 feet per mile), thus making overland flooding or water that will pond on saturated ground more likely.

Also, urbanization (Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings encourage more runoff) along with new levies and dikes being built does not help. When a new levee is built or an old floodwall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood.

I guess in a nutshell, sometimes the anti-flood intentions levees are constructed for ultimately result in only exasperating the flooding situation--at least in the long run.

Exactly. I know the Red River of the North has a unique situation, but I do have issues with the levees.

the river basin I have the most issue with is the entire Mississippi River complex. They have more levees up on that complex than you can shake a stick at. All that "containment" does, is as you mentioned, make the situation worse.

Also, I have noticed that retention ponds are rare up there.
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Quoting jeffs713:
I find it interesting that nobody has said anything about post# 360, and also that Amy, Nea, and I are basically the only ones posting for the last bit.
Amy asked a question so I was looking up a couple of resources for her. The answer I received was she should contact her county emergency management or go to their website. I check a couple of county website and can say they need to improve their accessability. The verbal answer I was able to obtain (without specific street address) is there is very few areas of concerns for those living east of the San Deigo Freeway (5) and some areas of concern for those living between Highway 1 and the interstate. The majority of responses (verbal and e-mail) were to check the county web site.
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yay! I can't type today! (double post)
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aqua.... those blue boots on the guy in the front look like they belong to Napoleon Dynamite....

and yes, we are getting a TON of rain.... feast or famine out here.... I would ship it to you if I could....
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Quoting aquak9:
hi amy- floating away? are ya'll getting rain? does that rain have my name on it? Overnite it by Fed-ex this way, PLEASE

ok, this is a pic from cnn, supposedly they are bringing out people that were affected by radiation.

Hello?? a TARP?? those things aren't even leakproof, let alone radiation proof!!! and what's with the packing tape around the lower legs and ankles??

Am I the only one that's like dumbfounded?




Not sure what is up with the tarp...

As for the packing tape, it is likely there to keep the bottom of the suit from shifting and/or opening up avenues to exposure. The tape isn't there to create a seal by itself. (think about it - when you pack a box, and place tape over all the seams)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well would you look at that.Snow is in the forcast for D.C.Where was all this cold air/snow in February? >.>.
It will be stormy for the eastern half of the country for at least two weeks... Check out the GFS if you have a moment...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20927
371.

What exactly does finding an ancient culture from 15,000 years ago (the dating on which can be attributed to errors in carbon-dating) have to do with climate change? Aside from nothing?

---------------------



Quoting aquak9:
oh jeffs, I am lurking

Read up about all the dams and levees along the mississippi, starting at the top. They have twisted and convoluted the flow of the poor mississippi more that grothar's guts after eating boiled eggs and beer.


Yeah. Where else does it make sense to spend several million dollars to protect a single farmer's 40-acre tract from natural flooding?

It may just be me, but the midwest seems to be a hotbed of political lobbying.
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Well would you look at that.Snow is in the forcast for D.C.Where was all this cold air/snow in February? >.>.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16720
hi amy- floating away? are ya'll getting rain? does that rain have my name on it? Overnite it by Fed-ex this way, PLEASE

ok, this is a pic from cnn, supposedly they are bringing out people that were affected by radiation.

Hello?? a TARP?? those things aren't even leakproof, let alone radiation proof!!! and what's with the packing tape around the lower legs and ankles??

Am I the only one that's like dumbfounded?



Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25835
hey aqua...

:)

we're floating away out here in Southern Calif....
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I saw a program on the Clovis culture on the History Channel.... I think it was on the Ancient Aliens series....

speaking of which, what's up with the guy with the long Greek name on that series.... his hair is almost as big as Don King's.... it looks like he back combs it to get it up there.... kinda odd... but then he IS an expert on Ancient Aliens....
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oh jeffs, I am lurking

Read up about all the dams and levees along the mississippi, starting at the top. They have twisted and convoluted the flow of the poor mississippi more that grothar's guts after eating boiled eggs and beer.

I got interested in chernobyl after all this with japan...anyway I grabbed this offa cnn today:

Nuclear power experts cautioned against reading too much into the newest development, saying the burns suffered by the workers may not amount to much more than a sunburn.

now, from what I read about chernobyl, that's how radiation burns DO look, in the beginning...then the skin gets bubbly, hard, cracks, and can be lifted off in sections from the dying flesh underneath.

yeah it's all gross, and we'll never hear or see abit of it.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25835
Has anyone ever heard of 99942 Apophis? Well since we are on the topic of meteors I thought I would show you all the link :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
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Quoting NRAamy:
The National Enquirer is read by people trapped in line at the grocery store.

And this blog is read by the Ancient Aliens....


Oh No, Ancient and Justified.

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Quoting shakaka:


The earth actually is the center of the universe, advanced physics required but I'm sure any google monkey can look it up on some legitimate website.

Also, you can't prove a negative. And evidence that suggests something isn't even remotely proof of anything so there's really nothing to disprove in the first place.

THAT'S the problem, people with remedial science skills try to preach about global warming when they wouldn't know how to run the simplest experiment correctly. Never mind interpreting the data without including some painfully obvious sample bias. Makes me sick to keep seeing it over and over.

I see these plots of around 20C (yes that's a TWENTY) temperature swings over the history of the planet and people are up in arms over something bordering on statistical noise based on a lot of questionable data.

Wake up indeed


Another case of "settled science" meeting the data.

On and on it goes, where she stops?


Discovery of stone tools dates humans in U.S. to 2,500 years earlier than previously thought

By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 1:10 PM on 25th March 2011



The first humans in North America may have arrived up to 2,500 years earlier than originally thought, new archaeological finds suggest.

Stone tools that are 15,500-year-old were discovered in central Texas, smashing long-held theories about native settlement.

For 80 years it was widely accepted that the Clovis culture had arrived from Asia about 13,000 years ago and became the first inhabitants of what is now the United States.

Before the Texas find, the Clovis culture, sometimes referred to as the Llanos, was a prehistoric race who were thought to have been the first people to populate the New World.

They first appeared in North America at the end of the last glacial period 13,500 to 13,000 years ago. They are so named because of the discovery of their distinctive 'Clovis point' hunting tools in the 1930s at Clovis, New Mexico.

Archaeologists came to the conclusion that the Clovis were the first to inhabit North America because no evidence of an earlier civilisation had been found.

Several theories exist about their eventual decline and disappearance. The most common-held belief is that the Clovis culture merely adapted across America and eventually was assimilated into other cultures (such as the Folsom culture).

Another, more controversial theory, believes that their over-hunting of 'megafauna', like the mammoth, contributed to their extinction.

Another, known as the Clovis Comet event, suggests an extraterrestrial impact led to mass extinction and climate change that abruptly wiped out the Clovis. But now recent finds suggest that another culture may have beaten them to the Americas.




Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-136 9690/Like-finding-Holy-Grail-Discovery-stone-tools -dates-humans-U-S-2-500-years-earlier-previously-t hought.html#ixzz1Hd1uChIQ




Link

I wonder when the climate saga will end? 100, 1000,100,000 years?
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I find it interesting that nobody has said anything about post# 360, and also that Amy, Nea, and I are basically the only ones posting for the last bit.
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Quoting NRAamy:
I'm not worried about a meteor either... I mean, why worry...all bets are off....

exactly. If a meteor hits, I'm not going to think if a tsunami is going to wash over my area.. I'm just going to get the bare minimum to survive long-term together, and hunker down.
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I'm not worried about a meteor either... I mean, why worry...all bets are off....
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Quoting NRAamy:
thanks jeff....

My pleasure. Say hello to the ancient aliens for me. :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:

An undersea landslide--triggered by an earthquake or just simple slumping--can cause a huge tsunami in and around Southern California. Geologists have found evidence of past 20-meter tsunamis in and around Los Angeles, while tsunamis caused by the collapse of part of the Channel Islands are believed to have caused multiple 100-meter tsunamis along the Santa Barbara and Ventura County coasts (especially deadly as there'd be only a few minutes warning of such a wave).

A far less likely event is an offshore meteor strike, which, if of sufficient size, could create a massive (kilometer-high?) tsunami almost anywhere around the Pacific Basin.

Anyway, check out the tsunami inundation maps for your area. At 100 feet and a mile inland, you're probably very safe. But, still...

I forgot about the Channel Islands...

As far as the meteor strike goes... If one of sufficient size hits, I really don't think a tsunami will be the biggest of your concerns.
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thanks jeff....
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For those of you in Miami - NOAA is having an open house on April 16th, from 10-2. They have a table at the Youth Fair, and I picked some information up. They are located next to the hurricane center, on the edge of FIU.
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Quoting jeffs713:
I wouldn't worry. There isn't anything near you that can generate that size of wave, not to mention most of the LA Basin faces SW. With the topography of the coastline around there, and how quickly the coastline transitions into hills, I don't think you have anything to worry about from Tsunamis. What you do have to worry about is quake damage, but almost all the tectonic motion comes from strike-slip, as opposed to megathrust subduction zone faults.

An undersea landslide--triggered by an earthquake or just simple slumping--can cause a huge tsunami in and around Southern California. Geologists have found evidence of past 20-meter tsunamis in and around Los Angeles, while tsunamis caused by the collapse of part of the Channel Islands are believed to have caused multiple 100-meter tsunamis along the Santa Barbara and Ventura County coasts (especially deadly as there'd be only a few minutes warning of such a wave).

A far less likely event is an offshore meteor strike, which, if of sufficient size, could create a massive (kilometer-high?) tsunami almost anywhere around the Pacific Basin.

Anyway, check out the tsunami inundation maps for your area. At 100 feet and a mile inland, you're probably very safe. But, still...
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The National Enquirer is read by people trapped in line at the grocery store.

And this blog is read by the Ancient Aliens....
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Quoting NRAamy:
San Onofre nuclear facility is just a few miles from my home.... I don't know how quake proof it is....

I think to a 7.2 or something like that. Most of the damage there would be from the quake itself, not a tsunami. Tsunami primarily form from tectonic shifts in the seafloor (not possible with a land-based fault, ESPECIALLY a strike-slip fault like the San Andreas complex), and a very large landslide on the seafloor (also not likely, based on the geological properties of the seafloor around the coastline).

As long as the reactors are scrammed (shut down) quickly, and the backup pumps keep going, you're ok. IIRC, the plant's backup generators are located in a MUCH more safe location than the ones in Japan hit by the tsunami.
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Speaking of Dr. M's post, one item that really strikes me is how the Midwest is constantly getting hit by significant floods, but nothing is mentioned about the "flood control" efforts that may be contributing to the situation.

Most of the "flood control" in place for the Midwest (which derives their fertile soil from regular flood events) consists of levees that go right up to the normal bank. This means that as the water rises in a natural flood event, it is not allowed to spread out. Since liquids are generally not readily compressible, that means that water has to go SOMEWHERE (since the speed of water in fluid motion is generally finite). That somewhere is up, and eventually over the levees.

Now, bear in mind I am not blaming the people who live behind these levees (at least, not directly). I am blaming those who designed these levees, and refused to consider their impacts. Its not a matter of building them too short, its a matter of refusing to allow the rivers to flow naturally, or to give them an "outlet" that keeps them from inflicting property damage (see: Mississippi River Spillway, near New Orleans).

How do you fix all of this?
1. Stop protecting farmland. Yeah, it will suck when the river floods, and you might have serious losses that year, but you will have MORE fertile soil after.
2. Allow rivers a diversion channel for flood waters.
3. Build levees on the edges of the natural floodplains, not directly on the bank.
4. Rebuild city-protecting levees to protect the cities themselves. If you live outside the levee, you are on your own!
5. Work WITH nature, not against it! Trying to contain mother nature is like trying to herd 100 cats into a single cage. Its possible in theory, but in practice it is almost amusing to watch your failure.
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San Onofre nuclear facility is just a few miles from my home.... I don't know how quake proof it is....
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Quoting Grothar:


Not really, in those days we just moved from Aristotle to Plato and Socrates. No such thing as grades. Just changed rocks. We all liked it when papyrus was invented. I hated chipping away on those stone tablets. Took months to finish a term paper.


Yikes...you're even older than I am ! We used typewriters and carbon paper and had to make sure we left enough room at the bottom of each page for footnotes.
Used to type a classmate's papers for blown glass pieces. I definitely prefer using Word to the good ole days!
Also, there was no Internet so we had to go to the library and research our papers with whatever books we found there. Fortunately I lived in New Haven, worked part-time at Yale, and so had access to a lot of great source material at the Yale Library. Still, prefer doing research the new-fashioned way via Internet

There have been rumblings about a Core Breach in #3. Here's an update from the IAEA for March 25:

IAEANewsUpdate
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11267
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes, track in the Atlantic, but intensity in the Atlantic is degraded and track in the East Pacific is degraded (limited sample size).

PowerPoint
They claim that is mostly due to the over prediction of Thomas. Guess we'll see...

And it looks like it was mostly only in the 3 - 4 day that intensity skill was degraded.

I hope the translational velocity issue doesn't bite us, though. That's sticky for GFDL to call for landfall more than day before it happens...
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Quoting NRAamy:
I'm about a mile inland..... from the Pacific Ocean, Southern Calif....
I wouldn't worry. There isn't anything near you that can generate that size of wave, not to mention most of the LA Basin faces SW. With the topography of the coastline around there, and how quickly the coastline transitions into hills, I don't think you have anything to worry about from Tsunamis. What you do have to worry about is quake damage, but almost all the tectonic motion comes from strike-slip, as opposed to megathrust subduction zone faults.
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There is often a good deal of truth in jest surfcropper.
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I'm about a mile inland..... from the Pacific Ocean, Southern Calif....
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353. beell
NEI is a nuclear energy lobbying group and the pro-nuclear bias should be apparent if one spends some time on their site.

Nonetheless, there still may be some information here concerning the source of the water leaks on at least one of the reactors (#2?) A problem with the suppression pool beneath the reactor. Maybe not a direct breach of the containment vessel but a breach all the same-through the suppression pool. Speculation only.

FAQ #7
If plant operators cannot move water through the reactor core, the water in the reactor vessel begins to boil and turn to steam, increasing pressure inside the reactor vessel. In order to keep the reactor vessel pressure below design limits, this steam is then piped into what is called a “suppression pool” of water or “torus” – a large doughnut-shaped tank that sits beneath the reactor vessel. Eventually, the water in the suppression pool reaches “saturation” – i.e., it cannot absorb any additional heat and it, too begins to boil, increasing pressure in containment. In order to stay within design limits for the primary containment, operators reduce pressure by venting steam through filters (to scrub out any radioactive particles) to the atmosphere through the vent stack.
If operators cannot pump additional water into the reactor vessel, the water level will begin to drop, uncovering the fuel rods. If the fuel remains uncovered for an extended period of time, fuel damage, possibly including melting of fuel, may occur. If there is fuel damage, and steam is being vented to the suppression pool, then to primary containment, then to secondary containment (in order to relieve pressure build-up on plant systems), small quantities of radioactive materials will escape to the environment.

Nuclear Energy Institute - Frequently Asked Questions:
Japanese Nuclear Energy Situation

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Quoting NRAamy:
98 feet above sea level... is that high enough to avoid the kind of tsunami Japan just experienced?
Depends on the slope between you and the coast, the elevation around you, and how far inland you are. The height of the wave is just from crest-to-trough. The water may reach well above that, considering the momentum & energy that has to be expended.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Might as well say my brain is the center of the universe Jeffs.Does that scientifically clear it up for you.Ref.341/332

I was actually being a smart ***, since I wanted them to be even more self-centered, and just straight up say that they are the only ones that are right, and everyone else is wrong.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
GFDL updates acomin:

Effective Tuesday, May 17, 2011, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Prediction System.
The scientific changes to the model include the following:

- Upgrade Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) deep convection
parameterization to new version implemented in the NCEP
Global Forecast System (GFS)
- Modify the surface enthalpy exchange coefficient and
dissipative heating effect
- Expand coupled region in the Eastern Atlantic domain
to prevent storms from losing coupling effect with the
ocean due to insufficient overlap with the Western Atlantic
region. The new overlap will be 25 degrees.
- Correct several bugs in the model.

In testing, these improvements resulted in an average reduction
of forecast error of about 20 percent in the Atlantic basin for
the 3 to 5 day forecast period for tests of storms from the 2010
Atlantic hurricane season.

Product Changes:

The following will be added to the GFDL model output GRIB files:

Model-predicted 10 meter winds will be outputted in addition to
the lowest model level 35 meter winds.

The GFDL hurricane model GRIB products are disseminated via the
NCEP and NWS FTP servers and are not available on NOAAPORT or
AWIPS. These changes will result in no change in product
dissemination time. There will be only a minor increase in
product size.

atmo: 20% ? That's significant. (Assuming that is track forecast error...I guess.)


Yes, track in the Atlantic, but intensity in the Atlantic is degraded and track in the East Pacific is degraded (limited sample size).

PowerPoint
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98 feet above sea level... is that high enough to avoid the kind of tsunami Japan just experienced?
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Might as well say my brain is the center of the universe Jeffs.Does that scientifically clear it up for you.Ref.341/332
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GFDL updates acomin:

Effective Tuesday, May 17, 2011, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Prediction System.
The scientific changes to the model include the following:

- Upgrade Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) deep convection
parameterization to new version implemented in the NCEP
Global Forecast System (GFS)
- Modify the surface enthalpy exchange coefficient and
dissipative heating effect
- Expand coupled region in the Eastern Atlantic domain
to prevent storms from losing coupling effect with the
ocean due to insufficient overlap with the Western Atlantic
region. The new overlap will be 25 degrees.
- Correct several bugs in the model.

In testing, these improvements resulted in an average reduction
of forecast error of about 20 percent in the Atlantic basin for
the 3 to 5 day forecast period for tests of storms from the 2010
Atlantic hurricane season.

Product Changes:

The following will be added to the GFDL model output GRIB files:

Model-predicted 10 meter winds will be outputted in addition to
the lowest model level 35 meter winds.

The GFDL hurricane model GRIB products are disseminated via the
NCEP and NWS FTP servers and are not available on NOAAPORT or
AWIPS. These changes will result in no change in product
dissemination time. There will be only a minor increase in
product size.

atmo: 20% ? That's significant. (Assuming that is track forecast error...I guess.)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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