Huh? Hurricane Vince????

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 AM GMT on October 10, 2005

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OK, this is definitely a weird storm. First of all, it's ridiculous that we're up to a "V" storm in early October. Second of all, Vince formed in a very unusual location--off the coast of Portugal--and in a region where water temperatures are only about 24 C. No tropical storm has ever formed so far north and east. Thirdly, Vince is incredibly tiny--and now a hurricane! I know I always harp on the rule that a water temperature of at least 26C is needed for tropical storm formation to occur, but we can bend that rule a little when a tropical storm forms from a pre-existing non-tropical low pressure system that sits over water for many days, and gradually acquires a warm core. As we've already seen, the Hurricane Season of 2005 doesn't care much about what is usual. The storm was too far east to fit on our newer tracking maps, so I dusted off some European maps for the purpose.



Vince is in a strange location, but not unprecedented. Vince is pretty far east--18.6 West longitude at the 5pm EDT advisory--but there have been hurricanes that have been even further east than Vince. For example, in 1965, Hurricane Carol made it to 17.8 West near the coast of Portugal before being downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm. And in 1961, Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland as a Category 1 hurricane, passing longitude 8 West before losing hurricane characteristics (sorry my maps don't extend all the way to Europe, I'm going to have to fix this). So, Vince's location isn't unprecedented, and you can't blame Vince on global warming, given that Vince is forming in such cold waters! But this sure is a weird exclamation mark to put on the end of a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season.

The rest of my discussion from this morning appears below, unchanged.

Vince won't be with us for long. A cold front approaching Europe will pick up Vince Tuesday morning, and cold water and wind shear will tear Vince apart. Vince's remains should bring Portugal and Spain heavy rains and winds gusts to 45 mph on Tuesday. Portugal gets the remains of tropical storms every 5 - 10 years, on average. This occurred most recently in October 1998 with Jeanne.

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22 dissipated Saturday evening, torn apart by wind shear. Its remnants will continue west towards the Carolinas, but are not expected to regenerate or bring significant rains to the U.S., as the wind shear is too high (30 knots) for re-development to occur.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following near 15N 53W, about 450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a low level circulation, but the cloud pattern is disorganized. Development is not expected today or Monday, but some slow development after that is possible.

A strong upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating a large curved band of disturbed weather from the Bahamas through the central Caribbean to the Leeward Islands. No development is likely in this area until Tuesday, when the low is expected to weaken and move north and reduce the amount of wind shear over the area. Several of the computer models predict that a tropical storm could form from this disturbed area of weather by mid-week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains at about 1500. Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time. Stan now surpasses Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana.


Figure 2.Total precipition for the year (PC = precipitation in incehs) from a station in Guatemala. During a 5-day period of rain from Stan, this station picked up 17 inches of rain.

The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. The entire village may be declared a mass grave, as rescuers move on to find victims of more survivable mudslides. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala.

The next update will be Monday around 10 am.

Jeff Masters

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110. Venice
2:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
The Warriors, how many bonus points?
109. FLCrackerGirl
1:46 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
DR M Has NEW Post Up!
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
108. palmbeacher
1:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Morning all!
107. weatherwannabe
1:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
lefty any more brilliant predictions from your mother's basement?
106. gbreezegirl
1:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
Good morning all! Fabulous weekend here. Went to Pensacola Beach Saturday and it was wonderful. Emerald blue water and no red tide! Not a cloud in the sky and 80 degrees Saturday. Well I see that we are up to "V".
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
105. oriondarkwood
12:35 PM GMT on October 10, 2005
(clinking bottles and driving in a cyberspacial car)

Lurkers...
Come out and Play
Lurkers..
Come out and Playyyy
Luckers...
Come out and PLAY!!

Bouns points for knowing what movie that line is a parody of
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
104. dcw
10:01 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Something to note about Global Warming: These storms are natures regulation for it.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
103. leftyy420
9:13 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
ok guys quick update on possible carribean storm now that all the major models are out

formation styill looks good in allmodels but looks to be a littlemore north and a little slower than befor. so 36-48 hrs from now. this later development has led to tracks that have shifted east and looks unlikley a landfall would occur. will need to see if its the same in the next model runs. remeber the track is merely pseculation as it has not formed and many things couldplay into it. the key is all globalmodels still predict formation in 36-48 hrs


gfs has it quite in the atlantic for days after this storm. uopdate u guys again in the morning
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
102. weatherwannabe
8:09 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
lefty - any more brilliant predictions?
101. weatherwannabe
8:08 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
hi bold - you wanna play?
100. theboldman
7:31 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
hello any lurkers lol come out hey
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
99. theboldman
7:26 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
hello all again whats new with vince
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
98. ProgressivePulse
5:41 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Code1 you might try alec's blog I think everyone here is about gone, where did you get this fog in ATL?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
97. code1
5:30 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Sorry for the off topic discussion and question here, but from following the storms all year and the great knowledge on WU, just have to ask. How does HEAVY fog form when the cloud formation looks almost like the hurricane images that have been posted on the NHC? Left Ft. Walton today for Miami, was held on the ground for an hour due to heavy fog in Atlanta (I know it is crazy to go from Fl to Atl to get back to Fl...Delta). Anyway, on the approach in, I have never seen such cloud formations other than pictures of canes. It was not raining there either, but when we finally got down, very heavy fog. Of course, missed connecting flight and just got in and had to feed my habit with WU to see what is going on before going to bed. Hope someone can explain this to me. It was a sight to see and I fly all the time.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
96. wxhatt
5:26 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Thanks, sure will...
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
95. guygee
5:25 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Thanks wxhatt, good night.

BTW, you may want to check out turtlecane's blog if you are interested in global warming, it is here:

Link
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
94. guygee
5:22 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Computermodelsfail2c - I was just on my way out and I remembered we did do some vegetation modeling based on Lindenmayer Systems (L-Systems). Kind of old-hat nowadays, but at least related to fractal systems.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
93. wxhatt
5:18 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Night guygee, have a good one.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
92. guygee
5:11 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
The last few frames before the eclipse showed the West Atlantic ULL w/LLvl swirl heading more north. Time for me to relax and sign off. Thanks everyone as usual for the good conversation and insights.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
91. prttyeyez2002
5:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I think he and sj are playin Halo
90. tornadoty
5:00 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hey, is Lefty around?
89. wxhatt
4:58 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I see your point Computermodels, I just think global warming is a bad thing anyway you slice it. What would the biggest impact be? Would it be the weather, or something else I'm missing.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
88. wxhatt
4:55 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Thanks Computermodelsfail2c,

I had heard and read several theories, but what you are saying seems to make a lot of sense. If the carbons are causing this also, I am quite concerned that we may see a sharper increase in SST's due to the quantitave emissions.

I also read an article on the BBC that said that the Glacial meltdown is something like 3 times faster, and that melting is exposing black 'dirt' on the glaciers which would allow for absorbtion of even more heat. That sounds like a vicious cycle, eh?

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
87. Computermodelsfail2c
4:49 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Nevertheless, looking for a direct correlation between global warming and a rise in the frequency of SSTs is a waste of time. It is like linking a 1% rise in unemployment to a specific person's job loss. Even if you could scientifically prove a link between the 2, would the massive expenditure of time be worth it?
86. guygee
4:48 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Computermodelsfail2c - Data was shown to me by Dr.John F. Weishampel, University of Central Florida in Orlando. He was a winner of NSF Young Investigator Award, this was a few years ago. He only showed my printouts, I never got the files, otherwise I would be happy to share, as I do not believe the data was confidential or classified.

If you are an academic, government researcher or government contractor in the field, you can look him up at www.ucf.edu and make a request. When such requests are accompanied by an offer to jointly write a grant proposal, they are usually most welcome ;-)

Fractals can also make for some cool-looking artificial terrain generation, but usually too unrealistic. You need to alter with some erosion simulation and some smoothing.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
85. Computermodelsfail2c
4:42 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Wx..The pulse vs change debate always generates controversy, but the data not surprisingly depicts natural upswings and downswings. However, the current oscillation most likely reflects the effect of the massive influx of carbon into Earth's atmosphere as well as natural processes.
84. tornadoty
4:39 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I'm back for noooowwww...
83. wxhatt
4:33 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Does anyone know if the slight global warming of our atmosphere correlates to the increase SST's? or is this just a decadal pulse.

Just wondering, being there has been recent talk on SST's.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
82. ProgressivePulse
4:33 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html Looks like a couple of Rams about to butt heads.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
81. tornadoty
4:32 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
This is an ULL becoming warm core.

And speaking of my stomach, be back soon...
80. dashwildwood
4:28 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
torns if im not mistaken the storms arent developing around 22 its a different system, i believe the swirl of low clouds SE of Bermuda or on the top left portion of the image is whats left of 22
79. Computermodelsfail2c
4:26 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I have been examining fractal elements in nature and would love to see the carbon data you speak of... I am a huge fan of image analysis and application
78. tornadoty
4:22 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hey Lefty, while my stomach cooperates, look at this:

Link

The storms are developing closer to the center.
77. guygee
4:20 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Skyepony - Not only am I a 2-finger and thumbs typist, but I eat dinner over my keybaord, so the keys are getting pretty sticky again.

Also, right hand types faster, so letters get reversed...
A hope they are not archiving this stuff on the wayback machine ;-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
76. guygee
4:17 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
OK, all the SST talk must be going over my head, I guess I really missed some hanging issue here, but no one will spell it out for me...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
75. leftyy420
4:17 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
k be there in a minute
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
74. Skyepony (Mod)
4:16 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
oh I second the spell check. As nature made me inept in this area, as well as many other science/art orintated people.

Sorry no pan on the forest 3-d models, sounds pretty interesting
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
73. StormJunkie
4:14 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Yeah in the lobby.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15819
72. leftyy420
4:14 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
sorry sj u still here
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
71. leftyy420
4:13 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
sh u still here man
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
70. guygee
4:12 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Skyepony - From your model links looks like FL in the clear for awhile, hope it holds...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
69. Skyepony (Mod)
4:11 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
the nogaps Link. They all seem pretty well agreed for 48 - 72 hrs then on a few ~ well watch out NE! Couldn't get the gfdl up. nite all
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
68. guygee
4:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Skyepony - A biology prefessor showed me those ladar images of some Central American rainforest. You could see the density of the foliage from the top of the canopy on down to the ground, in cross-section. It was very interesting. We were talking about making 3D interactive visualization software for his data, but it never panned out.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
67. tornadoty
4:06 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Also, I was planning to make the update longer and more indepth, but I habe not been feeling well tonight, with several peroids indiposed.
66. Skyepony (Mod)
4:05 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
the ukmet Link doesn't look pretty for the NE toward end of next week
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
65. Computermodelsfail2c
4:05 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Pick your data and plot your points...

64. tornadoty
4:03 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
No, not yet, they don't let 15/16 year-olds go pro..yet.
63. guygee
4:02 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
weatherwannabe - Was it something I said? Personally I can understand frustration of having to wait for this primitive blog to update, as you have to click "reload" every couple of minute to keep up. Wish they would add an edit feature, and an ignore/killfile feature to cut back on flamewars. Also a spellchecker would be a bonus.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
62. Skyepony (Mod)
4:02 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I'm purusing the models before sleep~ the Canadian Link seems to form a PR blob
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
61. Skyepony (Mod)
3:58 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Guygee maybe if i'd finished that physics degree:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
60. weatherwannabe
3:56 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
this blog needs a cleaning

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.