Onshore winds push radioactivity towards Tokyo

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on March 21, 2011

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Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant are headed to the southwest towards Tokyo today, carried by onshore northeasterly winds. An elongated area of low pressure is located off the southeast coast of Japan, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low may bring several periods of onshore northeasterly winds through Tuesday to northern Japan. According to the latest trajectory plots from NOAA's HYSPLIT model, air moving towards Tokyo today will be lifted by the ascending air associated with the low pressure system, and the radioactive particles may not make it all the way to Tokyo before getting lifted high enough that they get caught in a strong upper-level flow of air from the southwest and carried out to sea. Latest radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a wide region of light rain affecting Tokyo and surrounding regions, and this rain will tend to remove the great majority of the radioactive particles from the air in a few hours, so it is uncertain how much radioactivity might make it to Tokyo. High pressure will begin building in on Tuesday over Japan, and wind will gradually shift to blow out the north, which would carry radioactivity offshore just to the east of Tokyo. Offshore winds are expected on Wednesday, but onshore winds could re-develop late in the week as a new weak low pressure system affects the region. Radiation at the levels being reported coming from the troubled plant are not high enough to be of concern to human heath outside of Japan, so I will not be posting further plots showing the long-range path of the radioactivity unless there is a major explosion resulting in a significant release of radioactive emissions.


Figure 1. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Monday, March 21, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get blown by northeasterly winds close to Tokyo, before getting lifted high enough to get caught in a strong flow of air from the southwest that carries the radioactive air out to sea. Image created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 2. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Tuesday, March 22, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Northerly winds are predicted to carry radioactivity just to the east of Tokyo. A modest wind shift could bring the radioactivity to the city. Image created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:


Also I just realized. Why did you pick March instead of February to match the previous graph of the 200mb geopotential heights? I'll answer that for you. The tripole was clearly not as defined or even there. Also the month of February actually reflected more of a La Nina-like pattern in contrast to what was observed in December and January of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies. Our concern and the primary questions concern, asked by Grothar, is not of these months but of the months of hurricane season. Simply stating a positive NAO results in less shear is careless and other factors need to be taken into consideration.


That was in response to your quoted post about recent 850mb wind activity.

I understand about Grothar's question. I was making a point that the positive NAO does not always increase wind shear, both during the hurricane season and the winter. My initial answer of "less" was insufficient, as I was talking about the winter and did not mention the hurricane season. That's my bad.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with this. What I'm thinking is that last year a lot of the "early" predictions re. numbers [which were mostly in the 17 - 21 range] weren't that far off the actual total. So I guess a lot depends on how accurate our ENSO forecast is, and also how well we interpret it and other factors...


Anyone have links for last years monthly shear? I'm thinking ENSO will be going neutral around mid-April to June, then heading back to a moderate la nina. With the amount of upwelling that has been occurring, I don't think it would even be possible to get a strong el nino signal.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.
Yeahhhh remember 2005.Mmmmmm.
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Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.


I agree with this
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah because the NAO so far this March has exhibited its tripole signature instead of a dipole one. It has many faces, which I keep stressing. The numerical value of the AO/NAO does far from telling the whole story, and is only a guide to how the polar annular mode is evolving overall.



Perhaps a more accurate way for me to state it is that the positive NAO can both reduce or increase vertical wind shear in different situations, though in the winter-time I suspect it reduces it more often than it increases it. Not that it matters much when it's the winter.



Also I just realized. Why did you pick March instead of February to match the previous graph of the 200mb geopotential heights? I'll answer that for you. The tripole was clearly not as defined or even there. Also the month of February actually reflected more of a La Nina-like pattern in contrast to what was observed in December and January of the 500mb geopotential height anomalies. Our concern and the primary questions concern, asked by Grothar, is not of these months but of the months of hurricane season. Simply stating a positive NAO results in less shear is careless and other factors need to be taken into consideration.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
Hmmm.... let's see....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
I'm also thinking about the WPAC performance last year, which was WAY below expectation. Again, I'm wondering data exists which would allow us to do some comparative analysis of storm activity during PDO cool phase...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
Quoting Levi32:


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.
I agree with this. What I'm thinking is that last year a lot of the "early" predictions re. numbers [which were mostly in the 17 - 21 range] weren't that far off the actual total. So I guess a lot depends on how accurate our ENSO forecast is, and also how well we interpret it and other factors...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
There was also a link posted on the previous blog from Xyrus which is informative Link. It is from the same author which I did the simulation off of, but he published this blog before #3 exploded.

"One particular concern with Unit 3 is the presence of mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel in the core. MOX is a mixture of plutonium and uranium oxides. In September 2010, 32 fuel assemblies containing MOX fuel were loaded into this reactor. This is about 6% of the core."

Except from using the numbers in Edwin Lyman's paper and the link about the amount of plutonium shipped, his estimate of 6% is wrong.

"Because of this, the number of latent cancer fatalities resulting from an accident could increase by as much as a factor of five for a full core of MOX fuel compared to the same accident with no MOX. Fortunately, as noted above, the fraction of the fuel in this reactor that is MOX is small. Even so, I would estimate this could cause a roughly 10% increase in latent cancer fatalities if there were a severe accident with core melt and containment breach, which has not happened at this point and hopefully will not."

So the actual increased latent cancer fatalities may be as high as 17.5%, but that's assuming they weren't secretly using the stuff since 2000; considering how a lot of their regulatory and reporting aspects have completely failed.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



If you have not, please check your security log and provide the information from the event via a ticket to the link below. I would be interested in seeing the log info also. They have incorporated the link notification that pops up now when clicking any of the embedded links from prior events. Thnx

http://wuhelp.wunderground.com/index.php?_m=ticke ts&_a=submit
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



That just scares people. Do you have the name of the malware? Are you using ad blocking, cookie blocking or similar software? How about your HOSTS file.

Sometimes it's best not to say anything, particularly if you can't even name the malware.

You might *ask* if anyone else is experiencing the problem, but it is irresponsible to say "you might have a problem" if you don't have PROFESSIONAL GRADE protection. Huh?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A question for Levi or Drakoen. We are in March,but by the analysis that you have made so far,in your best estimation,how do you see the 2011 Atlantic season in terms of how active it may be in the numbers,keeping in mind what is going on in the ENSO factor?


Less than last year, which is typical of the season following a moderate-strong La Nina year. I am currently thinking more along the lines of 14-16 storms are likely.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It could indeed.

BTW, it's been a pleasure to watch you and Xyrus going back and forth on this without making it personal. It sets a good example for the rest of us.


I've read back a bit, and am pleasantly surprised. Far cry from how the blog has been for quite a while now. And informative too. Nice!
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A question for Levi or Drakoen. We are in March,but by the analysis that you have made so far,in your best estimation,how do you see the 2011 Atlantic season in terms of how active it may be in the numbers,keeping in mind what is going on in the ENSO factor?
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Quoting alfabob:


Time to reinstall the armor again.. Link.


I just sprayed my computer with ArmorAll. Waiting to see how it works. ;)
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah because the NAO so far this March has exhibited its tripole signature instead of a dipole one. It has many faces, which I keep stressing. The numerical value of the AO/NAO does far from telling the whole story, and is only a guide to how the polar annular mode is evolving overall.



Perhaps a more accurate way of stating it is that the positive NAO can both reduce or increase vertical wind shear in different situations, though in the winter-time I suspect it reduces it more often than it increases it. Not that it matters much when it's the winter.



Exactly
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
Quoting Drakoen:
If we look at the 30 day 850mb wind speeds over the Tropical Atlantic they didn't reflect a typical positive NAO which would have made an anomalous increase in the 850mb winds.


Yeah because the NAO so far this March has exhibited its tripole signature instead of a dipole one. It has many faces, which I keep stressing. The numerical value of the AO/NAO does far from telling the whole story, and is only a guide to how the polar annular mode is evolving overall.



Perhaps a more accurate way for me to state it is that the positive NAO can both reduce or increase vertical wind shear in different situations, though in the winter-time I suspect it reduces it more often than it increases it. Not that it matters much when it's the winter.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
I was very popular among my friends with arthritis for several days until they realized it was not from me.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



Time to reinstall the armor again.. Link.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
If we look at the 30 day 850mb wind speeds over the Tropical Atlantic they didn't reflect a typical positive NAO which would have made an anomalous increase in the 850mb winds.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
Quoting Drakoen:


So with that statement you are saying that the subtropical high (Azores-Bermuda high) has presence at 200mb in the?


It doesn't have a circulation but that doesn't mean there can't be height rises/falls associated with the longwave pattern.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting Jedkins01:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.



Recently I had my email hacked and it sent everyone in my address book an email telling them to go to a pill clinic and get free medicines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just warning you guys, if you don't have professional grade internet protection, you may have gotten Malware from accessing the blogs, apparently the link to these blogs had Malware on it earlier, because my system notified me of it and blocked it. Its not on here anymore though.

I just thought I'd give everyone a heads up on that. Malware destroyed my last computer, it even downloaded tons of porn repeatedly before the computer crashed. I was very upset, Malware sucks.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


My understanding is that running MOX in a reactor like this requires modifications to the reactor. That understanding may not be correct. But if it is, it implies that reactor 3 is either running on MOX or not. Why make a series of gradual modifications?

If we ever see the profile of the isotopes being released, we will be in a position to better understand what is happening.


I'm hoping that the rate of beta decay can be used to find out exactly the amount of plutonium (and other isotopes) that were used in the fuel. At the beginning both types are similar but due to the different amount of each isotope, one will have a quicker decaying CPM rate. But this would probably take years until the data is available.

According to the link I posted, the amount of plutonium shipped must be enriched. The mass calculations come out to be about 14% of a fully loaded core (instead of 8%).
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
@ Dean07... one of the nicer things about blogging this time of year is u have time to read up on this stuff and ask questions while the blog is not whizzing along at the speed of sound.... easier to get feedback.

So the next question is, what does that relaxed phase of the NAO mean for wind shear?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
Quoting Levi32:


The stronger subtropical high is directly related to the NAO in the winter.


So with that statement you are saying that the subtropical high (Azores-Bermuda high) has presence at 200mb in the?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
172. flsky
Spoke to a number of students from Haiti visiting Embry Riddle Univ. yesterday who said that quake recovery is incredibly slow.

Quoting TampaSpin:


are you still online
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171. flsky
Florida water table rose after Japanese quake.
Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Right now the NAO is positive, or "excited."

So the models predict it will become more relaxed in the coming weeks/months. If this is wrong i'm sorry, I don't know much about this topic when it comes to the tropics... Lol. i do have other good qualities in storm tracking, but this isn't one of them...
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Quoting alfabob:


Best way to solve problems, although he may be somewhat right about the core not being loaded 100% with MOX (people are saying it's 8% MOX, but who really knows). It seems like they were planning on switching over in 2000, and even got the shipment; but ended up not using it (supposedly) Link. On the other hand, this website indicates that they started using MOX in September 2010 in reactor 3; and it claims MOX was also scheduled to be used in August 2010 for the #1 reactor. So they may have been secretly using MOX for a while now, and may also have a lot stored.


My understanding is that running MOX in a reactor like this requires modifications to the reactor. That understanding may not be correct. But if it is, it implies that reactor 3 is either running on MOX or not. Why make a series of gradual modifications?

If we ever see the profile of the isotopes being released, we will be in a position to better understand what is happening.

Edit: then again, perhaps 8% is the limit above which you cannot safely go without reactor modifications.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hope you got the same cell.......just sent you a text


You have mail.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11403
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

So are we in a relaxed or more exciting NAO. Don't keep track on that...


Right now the NAO is positive, or "excited."

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting Drakoen:


That has more to do with the dominance of the 200mb anticyclone in the subtropical Atlantic rather than a correlation between the NAO and wind shear, which Grothar's question explicitly stated.


The stronger subtropical high is directly related to the NAO in the winter.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting BahaHurican:
148. WatchingThisOne 6:50 PM EDT on March 21, 2011

ONe thing I realize by looking at the background information for this report is that we've made some strides in the understanding of influences on TC steering since it was written.

"Elsner et al. (2000) found that the Gulf Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during a relaxed NAO while the East Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during an excited NAO. In this work, the years of East Coast landfalls and Florida landfalls are also classified according to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase"; for relaxed I'm reading weak /negative, and for excited I'm reading strong /positive.


So are we in a relaxed or more exciting NAO. Don't keep track on that...
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


I'm not surprised to hear it's not as simple as it seems. I just found the conclusions interesting, and have been keeping them in the back of my mind as seasons develop. Last year was a complete miss.

WTO
Actually I don't agree completely with that. Two storms hit the Canadian seaboard last year, 1 as a hurricane, consistent with what I noticed in their track maps. The rest of the landfall activity was concentrated along the western side of the CAR and GoM, which is not atypical of storm tracks during the first year of a La Nina. What was unexpected was the weakness of storms. I think a lot of us equated many storms with powerful storms, which was just not the case. I'd really like to see someone approach the influence of the PDO on storm formation.

Again, neutral years tend to favor increased landfall across FL and The Bahamas. Even if we stay in the La Nina phase, landfall risks along the US coast increase during the second year of a multi-year la nina, IIRC.... What's going to be equally interesting is whether we get stronger systems this year....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
Let us remember the people in Japan during this difficult time for them. They have suffered three disasters: earthquake, tsunami, and radiation. Please click on my blog for an update on how we can all help. Any idea to raise funds is a great one.
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I hope this is not true:


SECRET SHIPMENT OF NUCLEAR BOMB MATERIAL FROM EUROPE TO JAPAN in 2010

"Last fall, two ships carrying a secret cargo of dangerous, nuclear weapons-usable plutonium fuel left ports in Britain and France and sail around the globe to Japan. On board will be fuel containing more plutonium than in the entire Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapons program.

The two British flagged vessels, the Pacific Teal and the Pacific Pintail, will leave Barrow in Britain and Cherbourg in France carrying the first commercial shipment to Japan of mixed-oxide (MOX) reactor fuel, made from plutonium and uranium. An estimated 446 kilograms of plutonium is contained in the 40 nuclear fuel elements – enough fissile material to construct 60 nuclear bombs.

The first plant to use MOX is scheduled to be Fukushima 1 plant. The date has been set to August 22nd, 2010.

The plutonium (MOX) fuel shipment is being conducted for the Japanese electrical utilities Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)."
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It could indeed.

BTW, it's been a pleasure to watch you and Xyrus going back and forth on this without making it personal. It sets a good example for the rest of us.


Best way to solve problems, although he may be somewhat right about the core not being loaded 100% with MOX (people are saying it's 8% MOX, but who really knows). It seems like they were planning on switching over in 2000, and even got the shipment; but ended up not using it (supposedly) Link. On the other hand, this website indicates that they started using MOX in September 2010 in reactor 3. So they may have been secretly using MOX for a while now, and may also have a lot stored.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yes Tim.


Hope you got the same cell.......just sent you a text
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Yes Tim.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
148. WatchingThisOne 6:50 PM EDT on March 21, 2011

ONe thing I realize by looking at the background information for this report is that we've made some strides in the understanding of influences on TC steering since it was written.

"Elsner et al. (2000) found that the Gulf Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during a relaxed NAO while the East Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during an excited NAO. In this work, the years of East Coast landfalls and Florida landfalls are also classified according to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase"; for relaxed I'm reading weak /negative, and for excited I'm reading strong /positive.



I'm not surprised to hear it's not as simple as it seems. I just found the conclusions interesting, and have been keeping them in the back of my mind as seasons develop. Last year was a complete miss.

WTO
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
US sees encouraging signs in Haiti elections


are you still online
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting alfabob:
This could end up being more important than previously thought. Data is from Link and Link:





It could indeed.

BTW, it's been a pleasure to watch you and Xyrus going back and forth on this without making it personal. It sets a good example for the rest of us.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
This would suggest that there is a dominant flow pattern during neutral years that tends to steer hurricanes toward Florida.

This almost by definition means that The Bahamas is more likely to be hit during neutral years as well. Looking at the maps of landfalling storms they include, only one hurricane makes landfall in The Bahamas during La Nina years [incidentally, it was one with a track remarkably similar to last year's Tomas]. The maps also suggest that the Canadian seaboard is more at risk of a direct hit [as opposed to storms which arrive in Canada overland] during a la nina year than a neutral year.

All in all it makes interesting reading....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
"What caused the smoke to billow first from Unit 3 at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant and later from Unit 2 is under investigation, nuclear safety agency officials said."

errrm... seawater? Loaded with algae, bacteria, plankton, and lots of other organics. Begins smoking after reaching 160to180degreesCelsius; before the reactor becomes hot enough to set the organics on fire; well before the pile becomes hot enough that water-Zircaloy4 oxidation becomes a serious problem, let alone zirconium-burning or fuel-rod meltdown.

Probably venting the reactors at noticeably less than the 374degreesCelcius when water becomes supercritical, can no longer exist as a liquid. Can't imagine them holding up to 218atmospheres when a BoilingWaterReactor's designed operating pressure is only 32-33atmospheres.
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148. WatchingThisOne 6:50 PM EDT on March 21, 2011

ONe thing I realize by looking at the background information for this report is that we've made some strides in the understanding of influences on TC steering since it was written.

"Elsner et al. (2000) found that the Gulf Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during a relaxed NAO while the East Coast was more likely to see a major hurricane strike during an excited NAO. In this work, the years of East Coast landfalls and Florida landfalls are also classified according to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase"; for relaxed I'm reading weak /negative, and for excited I'm reading strong /positive.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
US sees encouraging signs in Haiti elections
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11403
151. alfabob
11:11 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
This could end up being more important than previously thought. Data is from Link and Link (This is from a 100% MOX core, reactor #3 was most likely around 14%):



Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
150. Drakoen
11:09 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Less. Notice what happened to the wind shear in mid-January when the AO reversed from negative to positive. It has been averaging well below normal since then.

Notice the Caribbean shear coming up in recent weeks although the AO has still been positive. This may be indicative of the subtropical jet strengthening as convection increases slowly in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific as nino SSTs rise.





That has more to do with the dominance of the 200mb anticyclone in the subtropical Atlantic rather than a correlation between the NAO and wind shear, which Grothar's question explicitly stated.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
149. Levi32
10:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


U.S. temperatures so far in March are very La Nina-ish. It was more El Nino-like during the heart of the winter when it was cold in the eastern US.



500mb also looks La Nina-ish.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
148. WatchingThisOne
10:50 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:


That is a real possibility. A weak La-Nina. I looked at the CFS and GloSea model which takes us into neutral with a cool bias with the given rate of warming. An interesting thing to note is that the GloSea underestimated the rate of warming in its 3-month lead forecast. If we consider the Glosea to be an underestimation and the ECMWF members to be an overestimation then perhaps need to take the mean of the total ECMWF members and the Glosea members which I would see as a neutral with a slight warm biased which I think is what we will be looking at this hurricane season.

The March 2011 IRI ENSO forecast models have the average among the all dynamic models right around neutral, so this season could be absolutely neutral.



The very close agreement of the dynamical and statistical models strengthens the case for neutral conditions, with MJJ as the first 3-month period clearly above -0.5. We may be looking at neutral conditions for most or all of the season.

This "technical report" from 2002 has some interesting conclusions regarding regional disposition of LANDFALLING hurricanes under El Nino/La Nina/neutral conditions. I don't see it cited much. Reading the conclusions is a good way to spend 10 minutes, although the entire paper is interesting to my non-expert eyes:

FSU COPS landfalling hurricanes and ENSO

Expert commentary anyone?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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