Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today
Traces of radioactive substances emitted by Japan's damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant will likely arrive over the Western U.S. today, carried by the prevailing west to east winds that have blown over the Pacific Ocean during the past week. Rainfall is expected over California this weekend, and it is likely that the rain will wash radioactive particles out of the air to the surface in quantities that will be detectable at several locations. I want to strongly emphasize that the radioactivity from Japan arriving over the U.S. over the next few days poses absolutely no threat to human health, and is present in only miniscule quantities. The radioactive plumes from Japan have had seven days to dilute over a 5000+ mile journey, and have been subject to deposition to the ocean due to gravity and rainfall along the way. Natural radiation is present in our environment every day, and the extra radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant will cause much less than a 1% increase this background radiation. Radioactive particles from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 were detected in North America ten days after that event, and caused no harmful effects. The radiation from Japan over U.S. during the next week should be at levels even lower than the Chernobyl fallout.
Figure 1. Backward trajectories for the air arriving at the surface (red line) and 300 meters altitude (blue line) in San Francisco, California on Saturday, March 19, at 11am PDT. According to the latest run of the GFS model, the air arriving in San Franciso tomorrow will have originated near the surface in northern Japan last Saturday, when radioactive emissions from the Fukushima nuclear plant began. The radioactive particles arriving in California will be in trace quantities, and will have no harmful effects on human health. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant continue to move offshore to the east over the Pacific Ocean today, thanks to predominantly west winds blowing at 5 - 15 mph. These winds are being driven by the clockwise flow of air around a surface high pressure system centered just southeast of Tokyo. As this high pressure system moves northeastwards, parallel to the Japanese coast, today through Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today could wind up over Alaska after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.
Of much greater concern is the possibility of dangerous level of radiation over Japan. The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan may occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show winds on Sunday may carry radiation from the disaster site southwards over Tokyo. A low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan on Sunday, and this rain is likely to remove most of the radioactivity from the air where rain and radioactivity are both present. The winds associated with this low are difficult to predict at this time, since the winds will be light and variable.
Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 4 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 19, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plumes are predicted to move over California and Mexico at high altitude. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught northerly winds, and the two lower altitude plumes move over Tokyo by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant
The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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In this blog, I've seen bloggers call wetbacks, roaches to Latins.
I've seen bloggers classified themselves as American citizens "From the north", suggesting that American citizens from the islands are inferior.... I've seen comments like a black is not supposed to give orders to a white American...
And now your prejudiced comment against religious groups including Jehovahs Witnesses..
I agree with you, THIS IS NOT the blog to talk about religion...
I have black, white, American, Latin, Witnesses, Catholic, Buddhist, Pentecostal, Baptist, communist, atheists, skinny, fat friends and family; And I really don't judge them or make jokes about their beliefs or the way they look and think...
I personally are against and do no approve Racism and religious prejudice and coments like the one that started this.... And I hope the Administrator does the same....
Do one more for the record LOL
Right! "Does this dress make my butt look big?" "Ummm...stutter stutter... 'motor boat sounds' what are the SST's in the GOM"
Yes, Socrates did drink one too many. The last time I saw him he was trying to get the king's crown to float in a bathtub. He never did get it float but, he sure got the floor all wet.
Like I said before, while the two of us have to salute each other, only one of us really means it.
Anyone have updates on the reactor situation. Even the news is just repeating the same info. Nothing new.
Inhale a microgram-size speck, and your adjacent tissues are bombarded by 2200 alpha particles per second.
There is a lot of corporate propaganda out there that people can quote, but just the fact that you have to compare Pu-239 to cyanide should be cluing you in that you are being gamed.
that depends upon the type of salute....
;)
This is a first. Someone asking me a weather question. Here you go jitter:
Oh, my brother, when we salute one another, it's simply a social nicety...neither of us means it!
LOL
As for the situation in Japan, like everyone else, we're waiting for the other shoe to drop...I'm afraid we may see another upgrade to the level of the event
I put the link at the top because you should, and because, the source is important for perspective.
* Operation Tomodachi (all) (554)
Oh, jitter, we have to talk...there is only one non-suicidal answer to that question:
"Of course not! Why would you think such a thing?"
Skypony is, and always will be a class act. Nice of you to point it out on the blog.
Absolutely! Skye is a class act!
I would roll on the floor, but I wouldn't be able to get up. I will have to delete this post soon.
currently embarked aboard the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), hugs a Japanese citizen March 15, 2011, after delivering humanitarian aid supplies to a coastal Japanese city affected by the tsunami caused by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake in northern Japan. Ships and aircraft from the Ronald Reagan Strike Group were conducting search and rescue operations and resupply missions throughout northern Japans affected areas in support of Operation Tomodachi. (DoD photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Kevin B. Gray, U.S. Navy /Released)
The difference between ingestion of Pu-239 and cyanide? You can survive ingestion of a 3 micron grain of cyanide (lethal dosage for cyanide is 50-300mg, depending on form).
I agree...She's a very balanced blogger.. A model to follow on how to behave here...
Link
IT is all goood….
Plutonium has often been called the most toxic element known to man. However, in the normal meaning of “toxic” -- that is, a poison with a fairly fast, often fatal, effect -- scientists do not consider plutonium as very toxic at all. It is not comparable, for instance, to botulism, poison mushrooms, or certain chemicals, where very small amounts will cause immediate death. In referring to small amounts of radioactive materials, such as plutonium, the words “toxic” and “toxicity” are used to describe their relative abilities to damage biological material rather than to kill rapidly. The effects of low-level exposures to plutonium, as well as other radioactive material, may not be detected for many years, if at all.
WELL maybe not….. ( I added the italics and bold)
The risk of plutonium, particularly that which is maintained in temporary above ground storage facilities around the country, is that it and other transuranic isotopes have the potential to be inadvertently released to the biosphere. Without proper control and permanent disposal, plutonium can be of great risk if it were accidently released and dispersed with subsequent exposure to nearby populations.
Nuclear Plant Chief Weeps as Japanese Finally Admit People Will Die From Radiation
March 18, 2011 · 0 comments
You are right, I apologize and retract.
"It's just not that easy," Murray Jennex, a professor at San Diego State University in California. "They (reactors) are kind of like a coffee maker. If you leave it on the heat, they boil dry and then they crack."
"Putting concrete on that wouldn't help keep your coffee maker safe. But eventually, yes, you could build a concrete shield and be done with it."
"Chernobyl solution" may be last resort for Japan reactors
Link
Ugh... the image for that article is heart-breaking. The man's grief looks genuine. Let's just hope the mistakes he and the others at the top have made will serve as lessons to future nuclear regulators and plant administrators.
After Tokyo Electric Power Company Managing Director Akio Komiri cried as he left a conference to brief journalists on the situation at Fukushima, a senior Japanese minister also admitted that the country was overwhelmed by the scale of the tsunami and nuclear crisis.
He said officials should have admitted earlier how serious the radiation leaks were.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said: ‘The unprecedented scale of the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, frankly speaking, were among many things that happened that had not been anticipated under our disaster management contingency plans.
‘In hindsight, we could have moved a little quicker in assessing the situation and coordinating all that information and provided it faster.’
Nuclear experts have been saying for days that Japan was underplaying the crisis’ severity.
ILwthrfan~ I don't know if there is a timelime. Looks like some shallow, hard quakes happened on Fujiyama. Not finding alot about it yet, nothing from an agency. The spins remind me of the storm surge of fire scenario with the oil spill. In a few days when the wind is right...blowing huge amounts of radiation toward the volcano.. It blows it sky high in a massive volcano explosion.. quickly across the earth. Burning ash covering Tokyo, Fukushima & other reactors..doom(of the moon).
This is worrying- Prof Chris Busby, a British scientist who specialises in the health effects of radiation, tells the BBC that he fears authorities are playing down the scale of the disaster: This is already a radiological catastrophe. Particularly when talking about the plutonium reactor. Plutonium can't be detected by the Geiger counter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Busby
Link
the orginal one got lost and replaced by a picture that is not.
thanks in advance...
You're welcome (though thanks were not necessary; it was well deserved praise)...
As for the Fuji-about-to-explode issue, you're right: regardless of the event there are always some "scientists" who predict final dissolution for the human race (or the Gulf coast, or Washington state or *insert favortie locale upon which to visit biblical destruction here*)...
Coal is Safe! Yippy!
Highest reading at monitoring station 32. Approx 30km NW of Fukushima.
170 microsieverts.
MEXT appears to be tasked with a wide variety of items!
I dont remember how to do it 1911...but I will see if I can figure it out and message you.
Hey RecordSeason, my friend;
In my opinion, you sound like a Christian who is very jealous of your faith and following God's principles...
But this is not the place for exposing your beliefs, cause this is a weather blog
Ecclesiastes Chapter 3 even teaches us that...
A Time for Everything
1 There is a time for everything,
and a season for every activity under the heavens:
3 a time to tear down and a time to build,
5 a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing,
7 a time to tear and a time to mend,
a time to be silent and a time to speak,
8 a time to love and a time to hate,
a time for war and a time for peace
I won't do it, but some bloggers here are going to put you on ignore... That's my opinion...
One step at a time, if there is equipment that could be helpful the first step is to get power to it.
Some people on here. Sigh..........
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