Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on March 18, 2011

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Traces of radioactive substances emitted by Japan's damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant will likely arrive over the Western U.S. today, carried by the prevailing west to east winds that have blown over the Pacific Ocean during the past week. Rainfall is expected over California this weekend, and it is likely that the rain will wash radioactive particles out of the air to the surface in quantities that will be detectable at several locations. I want to strongly emphasize that the radioactivity from Japan arriving over the U.S. over the next few days poses absolutely no threat to human health, and is present in only miniscule quantities. The radioactive plumes from Japan have had seven days to dilute over a 5000+ mile journey, and have been subject to deposition to the ocean due to gravity and rainfall along the way. Natural radiation is present in our environment every day, and the extra radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant will cause much less than a 1% increase this background radiation. Radioactive particles from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 were detected in North America ten days after that event, and caused no harmful effects. The radiation from Japan over U.S. during the next week should be at levels even lower than the Chernobyl fallout.


Figure 1. Backward trajectories for the air arriving at the surface (red line) and 300 meters altitude (blue line) in San Francisco, California on Saturday, March 19, at 11am PDT. According to the latest run of the GFS model, the air arriving in San Franciso tomorrow will have originated near the surface in northern Japan last Saturday, when radioactive emissions from the Fukushima nuclear plant began. The radioactive particles arriving in California will be in trace quantities, and will have no harmful effects on human health. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant continue to move offshore to the east over the Pacific Ocean today, thanks to predominantly west winds blowing at 5 - 15 mph. These winds are being driven by the clockwise flow of air around a surface high pressure system centered just southeast of Tokyo. As this high pressure system moves northeastwards, parallel to the Japanese coast, today through Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today could wind up over Alaska after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.

Of much greater concern is the possibility of dangerous level of radiation over Japan. The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan may occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show winds on Sunday may carry radiation from the disaster site southwards over Tokyo. A low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan on Sunday, and this rain is likely to remove most of the radioactivity from the air where rain and radioactivity are both present. The winds associated with this low are difficult to predict at this time, since the winds will be light and variable.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 4 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 19, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plumes are predicted to move over California and Mexico at high altitude. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught northerly winds, and the two lower altitude plumes move over Tokyo by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Jeff Masters

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Oh, gosh. Now we got the Moon involved.
:)

Thanks, nrt.

Thanks, Pat.

All this=way beyond my brain.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From this site appears Denver is just naturally higher.


Interesting that you can see the floodplains of the Mississippi river so well in that. Clearly suggests sediment transport from the Missouri and Mississippi watersheds is the primary reason for the levels in LA, MS, AR.

Oh, and, hi nrt.
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The moon will be closest to the earth tonight than it has been in twenty years? Is this correct? My "conspiracy nut" neighbor just went on a tyrade about how the moon is responsible for the Japanese tsunami, earthquake, etc. etc. Nutcase.
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Moon Poses Radiation Risk to Future Travelers
Rather than blocking cosmic rays, the moon itself is a powerful source of radiation, measurements show.

Irene Klotz
By Irene Klotz
Thu Dec 17, 2009 04:04 AM ET



Future lunar explorers counting on the moon to shield themselves from galactic cosmic rays might want to think about Plan B.

In a surprising discovery, scientists have found that the moon itself is a source of potentially deadly radiation.

Measurements taken by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter show that the number of high energy particles streaming in from space did not tail off closer to the moon's surface, as would be expected with the body of the moon blocking half the sky.

Rather, the cosmic rays created a secondary -- and potentially more dangerous -- shower by blasting particles in the lunar soil which then become radioactive.

"The moon is a source of radiation," said Boston University researcher Harlan Spence, the lead scientist for LRO's cosmic ray telescope. "This was a bit unexpected."

While the moon blocks galactic cosmic rays to some extent, the hazards posed by the secondary radiation showers counter the shielding effects, Spence said at a press conference at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco this week.

Overall, future lunar travelers face a radiation dose 30 percent to 40 percent higher than originally expected, Spence said.

Galactic cosmic rays, believed to be caused by supernova explosions, are fast-moving electrically charged electrons and atomic nuclei. They are found throughout the solar system, though their numbers are particularly high at the present time due to an unusually quiet period of solar activity.

The lack of solar magnetic fields and reduced solar wind pressure means cosmic rays have been able to more easily penetrate the inner solar system.

"We are in a period when the radiation risks are elevated, but still tolerable," Spence said, adding that the levels were about what an X-ray technician or uranium miner might normally experience in a year.

The sun cycles through periods of high and low magnetic activity about every 11 years. The next period of maximum activity, characterized by increasing number of sunspots and other disruptions of the sun's surface, is expected in 2013.

LRO found about twice as many of the highest energy cosmic rays -- those that could punch through the telescope itself -- as expected. NASA plans to use the information to design shelters and operating procedures for future human excursions to the moon.

LRO is about halfway through a one-year primary mission to scout for landing spots, find potential resources and characterize radiation and other hazards.

"The work being done in heliophysics areas is important to keeping astronauts safe," said Michael Wargo, who oversees NASA's lunar research programs. "One of the holy grails would be to be able to predict the sun's activities and give an 'all clear' on how many days astronauts could be on (spacewalks)."
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hi BFOTR.

Hmm, altitude...after all of the atmosphere above Denver, could there really be that much difference from 1 mile up and sea level? (*shrug* I dunno. Gamma absorption is not something well studied by myself, nor presented in my met curriculum, IIRC.)


Maybe the particles from Japan are more concentrated at a higher atmospheric level. Who knows? Certainly not me, so I think I'll stop guessing.
:)

Good Saturday to you and everyone.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hi BFOTR.

Hmm, altitude...after all of the atmosphere above Denver, could there really be that much difference from 1 mile up and sea level? (*shrug* I dunno. Gamma absorption is not something well studied by myself, nor presented in my met curriculum, IIRC.)


From this site appears Denver is just naturally higher.


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Quoting MagicFan:
BBC is reporting lots of hot girls at the pool right now!



LOL
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


The EPA website states there are filters in place at each RADNET site, presumably to "catch" particles which may be examined. (?)

Thanks for the good comments, bl.
:)

And atmo.
:)

Maybe just altitude catching cosmic gamma rays- add: at Denver?
Hi BFOTR.

Hmm, altitude...after all of the atmosphere above Denver, could there really be that much difference from 1 mile up and sea level? (*shrug* I dunno. Gamma absorption is not something well studied by myself, nor presented in my met curriculum, IIRC.)
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IAEA Update on Japan Earthquake


Japanese Earthquake Update (19 March 2011 12:00 UTC) - Corrected

Contamination in Food Products around Fukushima

(Please note correction posted 19 March at 15:30 UTC in bold in text below. Apologies for the inconvenience.)

The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has confirmed the presence of radioactive iodine contamination in food products measured in the Fukushima Prefecture, the area around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. According to the latest data, the food products were measured from 16-18 March and indicated the presence of radioactive iodine. To date, no other radioactive isotopes have been shown to increase in the analysis of food products around Fukushima.

Though radioactive iodine has a short half-life of about 8 days and decays naturally within a matter of weeks, there is a short-term risk to human health if radioactive iodine in food is absorbed into the human body. If ingested, it can accumulate in and cause damage to the thyroid. Children and young people are particularly at risk of thyroid damage due to the ingestion of radioactive iodine.

Japanese authorities have implemented two critical measures to counter the contamination of food products by radioactive iodine. First, on 16 March, Japan's Nuclear Safety Commission recommended local authorities to instruct evacuees leaving the 20-kilometre area to ingest stable (not radioactive) iodine. As an established method of prevention, the ingestion of stable iodine can help to prevent the accumulation of radioactive iodine in the thyroid. Stable iodine pills and syrup (for children) have been made available at evacuation centres. Second, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has requested an investigation into the possible stop of sales of food products from the Fukushima Prefecture.

The IAEA has passed this information to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and will continue to report on this development.

According to materials on its website, the FAO is prepared to respond upon request from the Government of Japan in the following areas:

* - assessing radioactive contamination of the agricultural environment, especially foods
* - providing technical advice and determining appropriate medium- and long-term measures for agriculture -- including soil, land, forests, crops, fisheries, animal health and welfare and food safety
* - facilitating international trade of foods, including agricultural produce

The IAEA continues to gather information on this development and will report further as events warrant.
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Quoting beell:
Morning, atmo,



5-28 uR/hr considered "normal". So maybe a little high between the the 16th and 17th.

A US Map for Isotopes Cs 137 and Co 60 - Same units.
Accuracy/Veracity is unknown.

Link
Same source as compared in my previous post. Veracity of either one unknown.
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Quoting guygee:
Thank you for the informative post. I wish we could get some spectroscopy data so we had a better idea precisely what we are dealing with.


The EPA website states there are filters in place at each RADNET site, presumably to "catch" particles which may be examined. (?)

Thanks for the good comments, bl.
:)

And atmo.
:)

Maybe just altitude catching cosmic gamma rays- add: at Denver?
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Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:


I've noticed that Denver has had higher radiation levels than any of the west coast geiger counters the last few days, at 37 uR/hr now, more than double any west coast reading and was at 64 uR/hr yesterday which is common occurrence there and well within safe levels for animals and the food supply there, so CA should alright IMO.
Source
Big difference between that source and this map (constantly updated). Link (Note the values shown for N Cali)

And Denver's readings may simply be due to mineral content of the area? ( <--- WAG, not my area of expertise.)
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773. beell
Morning, atmo,

Quoting atmoaggie:

Records for Tokyo bear little of interest.

Last 3 days:


24 hours:


5-28 uR/hr considered "normal". So maybe a little high between the the 16th and 17th.

A US Map for Isotopes Cs 137 and Co 60 - Same units.
Accuracy/Veracity is unknown.

Link
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Quoting beell:

direct link to graphic

A simple line graph from a query off the RADNET site.
[...]
Thank you for the informative post. I wish we could get some spectroscopy data so we had a better idea precisely what we are dealing with.
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Quoting beell:
Photobucket

direct link to graphic

A simple line graph from a query off the RADNET site. A network of radiation monitoring instruments scattered across the US. This one is from the San Jose, CA site and begins on Correction: March 9th and ends with todays date.

The measurement units are in Counts Per Minute (CPM). In simple terms, same as the number of clicks on a geiger counter.

There is no simple way to convert CPM to Sieverts. It must be calculated isotope by isotope. If you dont know which isotopes, it can't be done.

Still on the simple theme, at the same rate of emission or decay, an isotope that emits more and higher energy gammas will give a higher rem/hr or Sv/hr.

So the CPM data from the RADNET site is sorted by Gamma Energy Ranges 2 through 10

Commonly accepted guidelines from folks smarter than me:

2-6, not unusual to see between 500 and 5000 and are typically transient atmospheric phenom, but can be from local radioactive elements. Local as "drifting in on the wind or rain". (?)

7-10 are typically cosmic in nature and high levels are generated from GRB's (Gamma Ray Bursts).

Doc M's current blog subject is "Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today". And that appears to be born out by the line graph. A spike in the CPM's on the 17th across Gamma Energy Ranges 2-6, followed by CPM levels remaining elevated. No day to day up/down variation as displayed prior to the 17th.

"Trace" would seem to be an accurate description-at least for San Jose! A few more of these for different locations would be required. Comparing the trend lines pre and post event is a simple approach to radiation monitoring but it may help a little.

Records for Tokyo bear little of interest.

Last 3 days:


24 hours:
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Quoting guygee:
I have to agree, the West needs to walk a fine line and use the minimum of force to prevent the slaughter of innocent human beings that was imminent. The West already loses credibility by allowing Saudi Arabia and the UAE to invade Bahrain, "invited" by the isolated greedy rulers but not by the people who are being killed there.

In any event seeing all this war-cheering saddens me, as war is the most horrific of all human endeavors, even when it is necessary.


A Department of Peace is desperately needed in these turbulent times. Please, no more war!
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Quoting islander101010:
not sure about this libya gig? touches of colonialism. just heard french jets are flying over the country. well didnt libya fight the french back in the 50s and won their freedom. so what are we going to get? a open spicket of oil? doubt it
I have to agree, the West needs to walk a fine line and use the minimum of force to prevent the slaughter of innocent human beings that was imminent. The West already loses credibility by allowing Saudi Arabia and the UAE to invade Bahrain, "invited" by the isolated greedy rulers but not by the people who are being killed there.

In any event seeing all this war-cheering saddens me, as war is the most horrific of all human endeavors, even when it is necessary.
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MSNBC: French taking immediate action against Libya
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I don't know what would constitute for such a dramatic drop in sea surface temperature in the Caribbean, given that yes the NAO has been at some of its highest levels this year since about February 25th or so, but the dramatic drop in sea surface temperatures since about March 16th is quite astonishing. It's possible that that NOAA is just having problems with its instrument. Anybody know?



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765. Skyepony (Mod)
TOKYO – The government said Saturday that small but safe amounts of radioactive iodine turned up in tap water in Tokyo and five other areas, amid concerns about radiation leaking from a damaged nuclear power plant.

The trace amounts were found in Tokyo and the other prefectures on Friday, the first day since the government ordered nationwide daily sampling due to the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology said.

A ministry statement said the amounts found did not exceed government safety limits. But tests on water, which for decades were only done once a year, usually show no iodine.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39432
Assuming that trace radioactive material is indeed over US west coast as reported, can we then deduce that this radioactive matter will soon be in our food chain as California is a huge source of fruits, veggies, meat & dairy products?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Good. I saw Obama speak on the matter yesterday. He said this isn't a negotiable matter, and the U.S. and others will use force if Qadaiffi doesn't stop this nonsense. I think he's actually handling this well.


Obama is going to speak on this in a few minutes.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Intervention in Libya has begun.


Good. I saw Obama speak on the matter yesterday. He said this isn't a negotiable matter, and the U.S. and others will use force if Qadaiffi doesn't stop this nonsense. I think he's actually handling this well.
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760. beell
Photobucket

direct link to graphic

A simple line graph from a query off the RADNET site. A network of radiation monitoring instruments scattered across the US. This one is from the San Jose, CA site and begins on Correction: March 9th and ends with todays date.

The measurement units are in Counts Per Minute (CPM). In simple terms, same as the number of clicks on a geiger counter.

There is no simple way to convert CPM to Sieverts. It must be calculated isotope by isotope. If you dont know which isotopes, it can't be done.

Still on the simple theme, at the same rate of emission or decay, an isotope that emits more and higher energy gammas will give a higher rem/hr or Sv/hr.

So the CPM data from the RADNET site is sorted by Gamma Energy Ranges 2 through 10

Commonly accepted guidelines from folks smarter than me:

2-6, not unusual to see between 500 and 5000 and are typically transient atmospheric phenom, but can be from local radioactive elements. Local as "drifting in on the wind or rain". (?)

7-10 are typically cosmic in nature and high levels are generated from GRB's (Gamma Ray Bursts).

Doc M's current blog subject is "Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today". And that appears to be born out by the line graph. A spike in the CPM's on the 17th across Gamma Energy Ranges 2-6, followed by CPM levels remaining elevated. No day to day up/down variation as displayed prior to the 17th.

"Trace" would seem to be an accurate description-at least for San Jose! A few more of these for different locations would be required. Comparing the trend lines pre and post event is a simple approach to radiation monitoring but it may help a little.
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Libyan jet shot down over Benghazi

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758. Skyepony (Mod)
At least 15 people were killed and 30 others injured when a fierce thunderstorm hit the city of Sialkot in east Pakistan Saturday afternoon. As most of the cable TV operators in the country are currently on a one-day strike against the country's Supreme Court decision to grant the broadcasting right of the on-going world cup cricket matches to a single local TV channel Geo, details about the thunderstorm are very scarce at this point. Sialkot is a city located some 100 kilometers north of Lahore in Pakistan's eastern province of Punjab. Many roofs of houses in the area were blown away by the fierce wind coupled with heavy rains. Most of the casualties were caused by the collapsed buildings, said local sources, adding that many people are still being buried under the debris of the collapsed buildings. A rescue team has been dispatched to the area hit by the thunderstorm and some of the injured people have been shifted to hospitals. A severe thunderstorm also hit the country's capital city Islamabad Saturday afternoon, but no casualties or damage have been reported. The local meteorological department has not issued any forecast for the weather in the affected area in the coming days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39432
Complete Update

Only MAG 5+ displayed

HYSPLIT set at 0,30,300 meters





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756. Skyepony (Mod)
In one of the worst infernos in northeastern India, more than 14 persons have been burnt to death and many were believed to be still buried under debris in a Reang refugee camp at Gachhirampara-Naisingpara in Tripura on Saturday. Eyewitness put the death figure at 19. More than 100 persons were injured. Most of the deceased were children. The devastating fire completely gutted Gachhirampara-Naisingpara Bru refugee camp in North Tripura on Saturday at around 12.10 pm.The camp is located about 185 kms from Agartala, adjoining Mizoram and 17 kms from Kanchanpur subdivision. There were 3700 inmates in the camp. The camp is located in several hillocks and all houses and huts were turned to ash in about 1 km radius. Nepal Chandra Das, DIG operations said, "So far we have recovered 14 charred bodies. But many more bodies could have been still there". District magistrate of North Tripura Soumya Gupta and all senior district officials have rushed to the camp. Subdivisional magistrate of Kanchanpur Dilip Chakma said that the death toll likely to rise as the situation was virtually beyond control. The camp for the displaced Brus- Reang tribesmen from Mizoram- was heavily crowded and there were virtually no water source in the dry hilly region.

The fire is suspected to have begun from a kitchen and immediately engulfed the series of thatched huts where the displaced Brus were sheltered. Soon after the fire broke out, fire fighters from all adjoining subdivisions rushed to the spot but could not do much in absence of adequate water and the entire camp was reduced to ashes. "The fire went beyond control immediately as the entire area is dry and windy. Worst is there is no water source near the camp to help the fire fighters. The fire service vehicles had to rush back to far off places for water and then return to the camp, which ultimately could not help douse the devastating flames", said Amitabha Kar, DG fire service. Sources from Gachhirampara-Naishingpara said the main task for the fire service, policemen and security forces is now concentrated on recovering the bodies that could still have been buried in the burning debris. "It was virtually hell fire of Biblical proportion. The flames kept on devouring huts after huts, acrid smoke billowed up and then covered the area. And then there was stench of burnt human flesh. It was a nightmare coming true even as fire service, police, camp inmates and locals stood helpless in absence of water", said Rjendra Reang, a local over telephone. He said minimum 500 huts were completely reduced to ashes.

"Besides humans, chicken and pigs could not escape the hell fire. Deaths could have been many more had not the youths had already gone for jhum (shifting) cultivation", he added. "But so many deaths in a fire incident in the region is unheard of", he added. Senior official from Agartala have left for Kanchanpur. The Brus (Reangs) had fled Mizoram on October 15, 1997 night following fierce communal riots between the Brus and Lushais (Mizos) in adjoining North Tripura. They were sheltered in six camps in Kanchanpur subdivision since then. Several tripartite talks with active involvement of the Central government failed to ensure repatriation of the Brus to their homeland as Aizwal was overtly reluctant to take them back. At a point of time there were about 45,000 displaced Brus in the six camps. At present there are about 34,000 Brus in the six camps. There was no exact official figure of Bru inmates in Gachhirampara-Naishingpara camp which caught fire on Saturday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39432
Quoting MagicFan:
BBC is reporting lots of hot girls at the pool right now!


Now this is my kind of report !!!
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BBC reporting...Link
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not sure about this libya gig? touches of colonialism. just heard french jets are flying over the country. well didnt libya fight the french back in the 50s and won their freedom. so what are we going to get? a open spicket of oil? doubt it
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Quoting tkeith:
I see a banner on MSN saying French planes in Libyan air space, but I can find any more reports. You got a link or a site Geoffrey?


I'm watching CNN.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Intervention in Libya has begun.
I see a banner on MSN saying French planes in Libyan air space, but I can find any more reports. You got a link or a site Geoffrey?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Exactly what I think. But, why fight if you know you're going to lose power?


Intervention in Libya has begun.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



He knows he is going down, he is going to fight till they get to him.


Exactly what I think. But, why fight if you know you're going to lose power?
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Video of Libya aircraft being shot down by rebal forces of the city of Benghazi. Crashes and blows up in neighborhood.


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743. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 19 2011
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (997 hPa) located at 19.5S 66.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
120 NM from the center in the southern sector

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 63.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.5S 60.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.3S 55.1E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.9S 51.7E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Latest animated satellite pictures show that the system is undergoing a strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear. Low level clockwise circulation is partially exposed west of the convection. According to the ASCAT data at 4.32z, Maximum winds near the circulation center are from 20-25 knots, but there is still near gale force and locally gale force winds in the southern semi-circle so system is downgraded at the stage of tropical depression.

According to CIMSS analyze on Numerical Weather Prediction models, vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen gradually aloft as the system is approaching an upper level trough. Environmental conditions are not favorable for a regeneration. However, strong near gale force should exist in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure until Monday. Available Numerical Weather Prediction models are in fair good agreement for a track west southwest on the northern edge of the low to mid troposphere subtropical high pressure up to J+2/J+3. The more realistic forecast beyond is a recurve of the track southeastward in relation with a gap in the subtropical high pressure and dissipation of the system.

UNHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting P451:
Aussie I am sure you would take that over the extreme heat and forest fires of past season you always report to us. Although watch those lightning strikes while driving! ;-)


dont forget the flooding and cyclones. Yeah, we get some great conditions for some nice lightning storms.
The local creek has been bone dry the past 6 weeks, it ain't anymore.
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Raining here at my place quiet heavy.


Click for Radar loop.
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Kyodo news is reporting that radioactive iodine has been found in tap water in Tokyo and elsewhere.

No details yet. Might just be a rumor.
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Pro-Gaddafi tanks enter the rebel stronghold of Benghazi

... gonna be nobody left to save
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Agricultural side effects have begun: FukushimaPrefecture milk and IbarakiPrefecture spinach have already been found to exceed radioactive contamination limits set by the Japanese government.

If they don't shut down the contaminant dispersal problem within a week or two, world food prices are gonna go through the roof.
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