Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on March 17, 2011

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Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface over the next day or two as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific.


Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.

As the high pressure system moves northeastwards and passes just east of Japan on Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the west and then southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today and Friday could wind up over Alaska and eastern Siberia after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to Hawaii and California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.

The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan will occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday morning, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show that regions of Japan north of the disaster site would be most at risk of receiving radioactive fallout on Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, an approaching low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan, and it is uncertain at this time what direction the wind might blow during this rain storm.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 2 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plume emitted at 10 meters (red line) ends up getting caught in the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system situated north of Hawaii, and spirals down towards the surface in the high's sinking air. The plume emitted at higher altitudes (blue line) ends up escaping this high and making it over California at high altitude, getting caught in the southwesterly flow around a low pressure system predicted to affect California next week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Mumbai hits its hottest temperature of all-time
The temperature in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India skyrocketed to an all-time high of 107°F (41.6°C) yesterday, March 16, at the downtown Colaba observatory. Records at the observatory go back to 1847, which may be the longest time series of temperature observations at any location in Asia. Mumbai's previous all-time record temperature was 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on April 19, 1955. Mumbai's Santacruz Airport, located in the suburbs several miles inland, did not set an all-time high yesterday, hitting 41.3°C (all-time record: 42.2°C on April 14, 1952.) The record heat yesterday was due to an unusually hot and dry northeasterly flow of air from the center of India that kept the usual cooling sea breeze from establishing itself along the coast. Hot weather continued in Mumbai today, with the mercury hitting 102°F (39°C.) Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for supplying these statistics for me.

Jeff Masters

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First and only fatal nuclear accident in the U.S.

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Ice Ensnares Dozens of Vessels in Gulf

Ten icebreakers are leading the ships to open water in convoys, Rosmorrechflot said.

By Irina Titova

The St. Petersburg Times

Published: March 16, 2011 (Issue # 1647)

At least 97 ships were stranded in the ice in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland while waiting for help from icebreakers Tuesday, the administration of the St. Petersburg seaport reported.

On Monday, there were 138 ships awaiting help, and two days ago, the line consisted of 160 ships. The problem has been particularly serious during the last month.

Ten icebreakers, including the nuclear ship the Vaigach, which came to the rescue from Murmansk, are currently trying to ease the maritime traffic jam.

The icebreakers are leading the ships to open water in convoys, the Federal Agency of Sea and River Transport, or Rosmorrechflot, said.

The severe winter in Western Europe this year has had consequences across the region, including in the Baltics. Meteorologists said in January that the area saw a lot of winds coming from the west that compacted the ice in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland. Such dense ice was last registered in the area in 1992, Rosmorrechflot said.

The ice is most dense close to St. Petersburg, where in some places it is more than a meter thick. The strength of the pressure exerted by the ice is measured at three points — a serious threat for the exteriors of the vessels.

Most of the ships trapped in the ice are cargo vessels, but some are passenger ferries. The Princess Maria ferry that travels between St. Petersburg and Helsinki reportedly arrived seven hours late in the Finnish capital last week. The vessel’s operators then decided to temporarily postpone its trips through Tuesday, March 15.

Another ferry — the St. Petersburg — that carries passengers between the port of Ust-Luga in the Leningrad Oblast and the city of Baltiisk in the Kaliningrad Region waited for help from icebreakers for six days from March 3 through March 9 — triple its usual journey time of two days. The ferry’s 12 passengers, who included a pregnant woman, were reportedly running out of food.

A tanker and a dry cargo ship collided in the Gulf of Finland on Sunday due to the situation. As a result of the collision, the tanker sustained a three-meter-wide hole and the front part of the cargo ship was damaged. No fuel leaks or injuries were reported, according to the 100 TV local television station.

The captains and crews of some ships in the Gulf of Finland, especially large cargo vessels, turned out to be unprepared for navigation under conditions of thick ice, as well as for traveling in a convoy and under manual operation, Rosmorrechflot said.




Link


You anti-coolies call this regional, DA?
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An article from the The Australian, eight hours ago, that contains some info I hadn't seen.

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
Quoting RecordSeason:


Ridiculous.

Industrialization has EVERYTHING to do with CO2, as industrialization would not have been possible without coal and oil, which...powered...all of thos early steam engines, and later modern boilers and turbines.


Industrialization was not even remotely possible without fossil fuels, and consequently the production of CO2.
I mean CO2 has nothing to do directly with health, it has everything to do with industrialization, I really should have clarified my sentence
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Quoting RecordSeason:


Ridiculous.

Industrialization has EVERYTHING to do with CO2, as industrialization would not have been possible without coal and oil, which...powered...all of thos early steam engines, and later modern boilers and turbines.


Industrialization was not even remotely possible without fossil fuels, and consequently the production of CO2.


Key word, WAS.

In the olden days Fossil fuels were just about the only source of energy.

Now we have nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, and tide which all produce little to no CO2 relative to fossil fuels.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Actually I have a class in this, CO2 is directly correlated with industry and factories, the reason countries with low C02 have high mortality rates is that they haven't been industrialized, and has almost nothing to do with the CO2 content in the air


Please stop! You're making too much sense. That can be confusing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
531. N3EG
Quoting RecordSeason:



The countries who have the highest rates of consumption of gasoline and coal, and therefore the highest emission rates, also have the highest life expectancies.

CO2 correlates VERY strongly to a two-fold increase in life expectancy. Infant mortality and birth defects in the U.S. are at an all time low. Our infant mortality is so low that it is one of the few things actually driving our population growth. Around 99.4% of all children born live to adulthood. Compare this to the pre-industrial era, when half or more of all chidren died before the age of 5.

The rate of death from pollution and "natural causes" is much lower than the rate of death from murders and accidents in the nations who consume and pollute the most, while in those nations who have very little CO2, the average life expectancy is around 40 years...roughly the same it was 500 years ago, and this in spite of us giving them free medicines, antibiotics, and vaccines...including annihilating polio, smallpox, and several nasty parasites on their behalf...and they still die at 40 years old...


CO2 correlates to very long life expectancy. It is a good thing.


Our country is also the most overweight country - therefore, obesity must prolong life.

Logic is really getting it's butt kicked today, isn't it?
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Quoting RecordSeason:


Ordinarily, you might be correct, but the ting is, the CO2 is produced in the process of all the goods adn services which make long life possible.

The fact laborers are not doing back-breaking 8000 calorie per day labor the way they did 100 years ago increases life span. This is made possible by coal and oil, which produce CO2.

Our abundance of wealth and food is possible due to automation, especially in agriculture, and this is possible because of coal and oil, which make CO2.

CO2 and long life correlate because the same things which produce CO2 produce long life.


No...

Let's pull up some numbers (since I know how much you love math):

Top 5 CO2 emissions by country (in thousands of metric tons) :

1 China 6,538,367.00 22.30%
2 United States 5,830,381.00 19.91%
3 India 1,612,362.00 5.50%
4 Russia 1,537,357.00 5.24%
5 Japan 1,254,543.00 4.28%

OR we could look at Top 5 CO2 emitters per capita per country in tons:

1. Qatar 55.4
2. Netherlands Antilles 32.5
3. United Arab Emirates 31.1
4. Kuwait 30.2
5. Bahrain 29.6


Top 5 countries life expectancies:

1 Japan 82.6 78.0 86.1
2 Hong Kong 82.2 79.4 85.1
3 Iceland 81.8 80.2 83.3
4 Switzerland 81.7 79.0 84.2
5 Australia 81.2 78.9 83.6



...So, not only is there little to no correlation at all, the causation is off because fossil fuels (biggest source of CO2) are not the only source of energy. You left out nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, tide, etc
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Here's some good news, with a bonus via Wikileaks: Fukushima nuclear plant owner falsified inspection records. Of course, that's kind of academic now.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
hmmmmm....These guys might want to work on their timing...
Congressional update: Nuclear power touted in bipartisan bill

From Communications & Governmental Affairs:

Legislation requiring the U.S. Department of Energy to work more actively with the private sector on nuclear energy partnerships has been introduced in the U.S. Senate. Idaho Senators Mike Crapo and Jim Risch have co-sponsored the Nuclear Power 2021 Act.

The bill would increase the number of small modular nuclear reactors available to produce clean, alternative energy. More than half of the development costs would be paid for by private investors. Other sponsors of the bill include both Democratic and Republican senators.

Both Crapo and Risch cited INL's work in nuclear energy research in their support of the bill. You can read their remarks and get more information about the bill in Crapo's full news release linked below.
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Haven't been around much lately being a junior in meteorology at college will do that to you but I found a rather interesting link on east coast tsunami's. Havent viewed the entire thing yet but thought I'd share.Link
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Actually I have a class in this, CO2 is directly correlated with industry and factories, the reason countries with low C02 have high mortality rates is that they haven't been industrialized, and has almost nothing to do with the CO2 content in the air


...exactly.
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Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono
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Quoting bappit:
They measure the water by weight/mass which is misleading. A cubic meter of water is a metric ton, 1000 kilograms. Really, 3 cubic meters is not a lot of water, maybe a bit more than in Grothar's water bed.


Caught that.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Actually I have a class in this, CO2 is directly correlated with industry and factories, the reason countries with low C02 have high mortality rates is that they haven't been industrialized, and has almost nothing to do with the CO2 content in the air
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Quoting Grothar:



Careful. You are getting close to my age with those numbers.


(10^10) - (10^3) /

Better?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting RecordSeason:
505:

The cascadia is DEFINITELY a subduction zone and produces a catastrophic destructive tsunami every few centuries.

The Japanese have records of "orphan" tsunamis which have been correlated to sand deposits in oregon, as well as 300 year old dead "ghost forests" which were killed when they were submerged below the ocean (and later uplifted again since then).


yea yea, I edited my post

Found a wikipedia article on it too, quite interesting...
Quoting Wikipedia:Recent findings concluded the Cascadia subduction zone was more hazardous than previously suggested. The feared next major earthquake has some geologists predicting a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9 or higher in the next 50 years,[11] however the most recent studies suggest that this risk could be as high as 37%.[12][13] Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such a colossal earthquake. The tsunami produced may reach heights of approximately 30 meters (100 ft).[14]"


San Andres is still strike skip though

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Quoting RecordSeason:



That couldn't be farther from the truth.

The countries who have the highest rates of consumption of gasoline and coal, and therefore the highest emission rates, also have the highest life expectancies.

CO2 correlates VERY strongly to a two-fold increase in life expectancy. Infant mortality and birth defects in the U.S. are at an all time low. Our infant mortality is so low that it is one of the few things actually driving our population growth. Around 99.4% of all children born live to adulthood. Compare this to the pre-industrial era, when half or more of all chidren died before the age of 5.

The rate of death from pollution and "natural causes" is much lower than the rate of death from murders and accidents in the nations who consume and pollute the most, while in those nations who have very little CO2, the average life expectancy is around 40 years...roughly the same it was 500 years ago, and this in spite of us giving them free medicines, antibiotics, and vaccines...including annihilating polio, smallpox, and several nasty parasites on their behalf...and they still die at 40 years old...


CO2 correlates to very long life expectancy. It is a good thing.


Correlation =/= causation


...and if that's the point you are trying to make with temps and co2 levels, the greenhouse gas theory proves your weak attempt wrong
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Please excuse my comparison.BUT, Earthquakes are not like having gas...Even though it is released and all is better, not the case with earthquakes...The pressure is still there. I'm sorry if I offended anyone ,but I think it is a perfect example.comparing having gas /vs earthquakes

Whatever.
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Quoting bappit:
Correction: Cascadia is a subduction zone. Subduction zones generate the strongest earthquakes.

San Andreas is strike slip.

I stand corrected then.

guess I better go edit my post
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Correction: Cascadia is a subduction zone. Subduction zones generate the strongest earthquakes.

San Andreas is strike slip.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
A La Palma collapse is overhyped. I read a paper on a full Navier-Stokes simulation of the collapse. The tsunami height potential for the US east coast was quite small -- a meter or so. The landslide collapse wave dissipates more rapidly than an earthquake tsunami. Portugal would still get quite a whallop, though.
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link

Plutonium is much less of a hazard in water than in air. Even if a kilogram of plutonium were introduced into a reservoir, it would be unlikely to reach concentrations that could cause acute health effects or even significantly increase the risk of death from cancer. Three factors diminish the dangers from reservoir contamination:

1. Most of the plutonium would settle out.

2. The plutonium remaining in solution would be greatly diluted in the large volumes of water available.

3. The ingestion pathways to man (drinking the water, or ingesting aquatic organisms) discriminate strongly against plutonium.[25]

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Quoting bappit:

Seems just as logical to think that the other quakes have released the tension.

yep
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Quoting bappit:

Seems just as logical to think that the other quakes have released the tension.

Please excuse my comparison.BUT, Earthquakes are not like having gas...Even though it is released and all is better, not the case with earthquakes...The pressure is still there. I'm sorry if I offended anyone ,but I think it is a perfect example.comparing having gas /vs earthquakes
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Lower right watch



sun, those Intellicast maps are usually posted by GeoffWPB. It gives him something to do. We try to let him have his fun. Isn't there some other map you can post. (LOL)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
They measure the water by weight/mass which is misleading. A cubic meter of water is a metric ton, 1000 kilograms. Really, 3 cubic meters is not a lot of water, maybe a bit more than in Grothar's water bed.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
Quoting RecordSeason:
Seeing as how the other three corners of the Pacific have all blown in the past 6.25 years, It seems highly likely that the cascadia and san andreas region will go soon now.

I figure there have been two other "great quakes" in the ring of fire since the Indonesia quake, so this averages out to about one great quake every 3 years since then. This would suggest the cascadia and/or san andreas region may be next, and may be happening in maybe 2 or 3 years time.

Can you imagine if the San Andreas slipped by 8 to 13 feet in one day?

A 9.0 quake on the cascadia subduction zone can allegedly make a 100ft high tsunami hit washington and oregon.

FEMA is doomed, since they never even run that scenario. They only ever actually plan for about a 7.5 quake.

What if La Palma Cumbre Vieha, however it's spelled, collapses? Most people do not realize the EAST coast of the U.S. is actually vulnerable to a mega-tsunami much, much bigger than what hit Japan. The government never even talks about it.

Could this be the apparent volcanic landslide mentioned in Revelation 8:8-9? The atlantic is probably close to 1/3rd of all the world's "sea"...


The San Andres region you are referring to is a totally different type of plate boundary.

It's a strike/skip boundary, where the plates slide past each other. Over in Japan, Indonesia, and Chile, the plate boundaries are convergent which are known to cause earthquakes of larger magnitude.




So, even if your theory was correct (that the San Andres region should see a significant earthquake in 2-3 years), it is unlikely it would be of a similar magnitude of the ones in Japan, Chile, and Indonesia.


edit: cascadia region maybe...
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


(10^10) - (10^3)

Better?



Careful. You are getting close to my age with those numbers.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting twincomanche:


And how about the reruns? LOL.



Cheers is on late at night.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
As you can see, most of the nuclear power plants and research facilities lie in the middle of the country. A good number that lie the West Coast are in the most seismically active parts of the nation, as this map from the United States Geological Survey shows:

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
457. RitaEvac 8:31 PM GMT on March 17, 2011
Fools trying to hook up the damn power line and think everything is gonna be fine, not talking about the people in there trying to cool it, read what I write.


putting themselves in harms way.....at least they are trying something and putting their lives on the line to do it.....


heros....

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This is a sign right here, natures way of giving heads up.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
I wonder how 6 meltdowns or slumped fuel rods will affect the GFS,The NAO,the MJO,ENSO, and the Curtain/TVCN Runs this season?

where is that slide rule...?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting Grothar:



Math majorcaster! LOL


(10^10) - (10^3)

Better?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting RecordSeason:
Seeing as how the other three corners of the Pacific have all blown in the past 6.25 years, It seems highly likely that the cascadia and san andreas region will go soon now.

Seems just as logical to think that the other quakes have released the tension.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
I'd like to see a model run on that La Palma Cumbre Vieha boulder off Africa. East coast would be wiped out, and there's tons of population there too.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting belizeit:
What makes me wonder of this disturbance its not associated with the itz


They are not unusual this time of year, but if anyone has been watching them, they are becoming more frequent.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Lower right watch

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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