Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on March 17, 2011

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Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface over the next day or two as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific.


Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.

As the high pressure system moves northeastwards and passes just east of Japan on Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the west and then southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today and Friday could wind up over Alaska and eastern Siberia after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to Hawaii and California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.

The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan will occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday morning, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show that regions of Japan north of the disaster site would be most at risk of receiving radioactive fallout on Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, an approaching low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan, and it is uncertain at this time what direction the wind might blow during this rain storm.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 2 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plume emitted at 10 meters (red line) ends up getting caught in the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system situated north of Hawaii, and spirals down towards the surface in the high's sinking air. The plume emitted at higher altitudes (blue line) ends up escaping this high and making it over California at high altitude, getting caught in the southwesterly flow around a low pressure system predicted to affect California next week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Mumbai hits its hottest temperature of all-time
The temperature in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India skyrocketed to an all-time high of 107°F (41.6°C) yesterday, March 16, at the downtown Colaba observatory. Records at the observatory go back to 1847, which may be the longest time series of temperature observations at any location in Asia. Mumbai's previous all-time record temperature was 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on April 19, 1955. Mumbai's Santacruz Airport, located in the suburbs several miles inland, did not set an all-time high yesterday, hitting 41.3°C (all-time record: 42.2°C on April 14, 1952.) The record heat yesterday was due to an unusually hot and dry northeasterly flow of air from the center of India that kept the usual cooling sea breeze from establishing itself along the coast. Hot weather continued in Mumbai today, with the mercury hitting 102°F (39°C.) Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for supplying these statistics for me.

Jeff Masters

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U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Vontez Morrow preps U-2 pilot U.S. Air Force Capt. Beau Block for a humanitarian mission to Japan from Osan Air Base, South Korea, March 13, 2011. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Master Sgt. Paul Holcomb

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting NRAamy:
129. cat5hurricane 8:39 AM PDT on March 17, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
In other news, our President is on vacation....

nice....
No, I heard he was filling out his NCAA tournament bracket.





cat5.... yeah, that too.... I'm so glad he has the time for those simple pleasures while so many are suffering....


Where was all this complaining when the last one spent a full third of his terms away from the White House, mostly at his "ranch" in Crawford?

Complaining about presidents is like being mad because it's raining. You can complain all you want but regardless of which way the wind is blowing, it's still going to be raining...

Okay, off the soapbox and back to work...
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I was reading an ABC report that said they need 1200 tons of water to fill the spent fuel tank, but only about 1/3 of that to get the rods covered again. The report says that each helicopter load carried about 7500 liters of water. By doing some simple math in my head, that means that they would need at least 50 perfect drops just to get the rods covered, not counting the replacement water for any steam that evaporates. And as we all saw, the drops were no where near 100% on target. Maybe my math is off?
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Photobucket">
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

You'll most likely be exposed to more radiation in a year using your cell phone or standing near the microwave waiting for the timer to ring than folks here in the U.S. will be.


That may be true, but it has nothing to do with why we are or are not seeing IR images of the plant.
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183. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Video that appears to be from the helicopters that dropped water previously.

Link


Actually caught myself holding my breath at the :32 second mark when they flew in/just over a cloud of steam and/or smoke.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Video that appears to be from the helicopters that dropped water previously.

Link



also, it's 1:31am there. Any visible shots you see are from daytime missions. They can't just show nothing, that doesn't sell, lol. Most I can get is that all previous missions were scrubbed due to high radiation levels.
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Gas line explosion shoots fireball into Minneapolis sky

MINNEAPOLIS — Officials said a fiery blast in south Minneapolis Thursday morning was a natural gas line explosion and that there are no known injuries.

Assistant Fire Chief Cherie Penn said people are still being evacuated from the area, but he described the evacuations as precautionary.

TV reports showed flames shooting high into the air near the interchange of Interstate 35W and Highway 62, at 60th Street and Nicollet Avenue.

Video shot near the explosion reveals the size — and heat — of the towering fireball. Narrating as he drives by at a safe distance, Twitter user Robert Stephens said, "from about two blocks away I can feel the heat on my face, and as it got closer, you can hear the hissing sound."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
179. N3EG
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You'll most likely be exposed to more radiation in a year using your cell phone or standing near the microwave waiting for the timer to ring than folks here in the U.S. will be.


That's non-ionizing radiation - a completely different thing. You're comparing apples and pumpkins.

Still, I'm not expecting a hazard in my backyard.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Video that appears to be from the helicopters that dropped water previously.

Link



This is about the best straight shooting article I've seen on the latest goings on.

ABC
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* Earthquakes
* Hazards
* Learn
* Prepare
* Monitoring
* Research

Magnitude 5.0 - SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
2011 March 17 15:34:33 UTC

* Details
* Maps

Earthquake Details

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.0
Date-Time

* Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 15:34:33 UTC
* Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 11:34:33 PM at epicenter

Location 40.512°N, 79.057°E
Depth 18.7 km (11.6 miles)
Region SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
Distances

* 123 km (76 miles) SW (235°) from Aksu, Xinjiang, China
* 230 km (143 miles) SSE (165°) from Karakol (Przhevalsk), Kyrgyzstan
* 275 km (171 miles) ESE (110°) from Naryn, Kyrgyzstan
* 443 km (275 miles) SE (125°) from BISHKEK (Frunze), Kyrgyzstan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 14.7 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles)
Parameters NST=114, Nph=123, Dmin=394.1 km, Rmss=0.75 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source

* U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc000254v
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Note where the Spent Fuel Pools are located and remember the Hydrogen Explosions and the damage incurred from them.




Yeah,,the circulating pumps will work just fine here,,pppffth

Damaged Units Image
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
None of the 13 minute Helo drops hit their mark,,and the effort was scrubbed due to the High Rad readings .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Video that appears to be from the helicopters that dropped water previously.

Link
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172. beell
On a lighter note...

Certainly do not have the knowledge to evaluate all the information in this report and know nothing of "INESAP" but quite a bit of it seems familiar-given what I have read on SFP's over the last few days. Also contains a little bit more ancillary info as well that applies to current events.

International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation - Radiological Terrorism: Sabotage of Spent Fuel Pool
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Quoting Floodman:


With over 7 billion people on earth, there will have to be some Socialism, bappit...certainly not here (our poor folks can starve and die, no worries)
And here is a sur-Link-prise...U.S. millionaires population expanded by 8% in 2010...
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Quoting bappit:
Interesting idea about the IR images Floodman. Anyone know where to find the MODIS (?) IR images that show wildfires?



Japan Earthquake Project Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Actress Sandra Bullock sent a $1 million donation to the Amerian Red Cross this week to help with earthquake and tsunami relief efforts in Japan, the organization said Thursday. It is the largest celebrity donation to the Red Cross to be announced since the disaster struck last Friday, although the charity may have gotten large contributions that were kept confidential at the donors' request
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Quoting surfmom:
My amigo's "never teach a pig to sing, it only frustrates you and pisses off the pig"

I'm off - hope to come back and not wipe testosterone off the screen -- we are fortunate to have this blog for current information, a place to express our feeling & opinions and most importantly LEARN.

I know it's difficult not to wanna thump a few folks & w/out a human face to speak with -- we all, myself included, can get more venomous on the keyboard then we would in real time face to face

but the scrapping will not do either side of any disagreement any good.... our beautiful, beautiful earth is in trouble... more then ever it's important to put our angers aside and look to our commonality - we are humans, we have ONE PLANET. We are but specs, dandruff in the real scheme of things... the earth will have no problem continuing on w/out our species.

Let's continue to use this Forum for the Better Good of ALL and have gratitude for the opportunity to do so.

**POOF**


Nothing is better for the entire world than debate.
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Quoting Patrap:
Im sure the Walker from Wisconsin/Scott from Fla. ticket in 2012 will save the USA.

Relax.

All is well.

Enjoy a Fresca


They would sure put a hurtin" on the unions though!

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Interesting idea about the IR images Floodman. Anyone know where to find the MODIS (?) IR images that show wildfires?
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162. alfabob

Indeed bob,,and that cant be said enough,,though it isnt in Japan at all.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
My amigo's "never teach a pig to sing, it only frustrates you and pisses off the pig"

I'm off - hope to come back and not wipe testosterone off the screen -- we are fortunate to have this blog for current information, a place to express our feeling & opinions and most importantly LEARN.

I know it's difficult not to wanna thump a few folks & w/out a human face to speak with -- we all, myself included, can get more venomous on the keyboard then we would in real time face to face

but the scrapping will not do either side of any disagreement any good.... our beautiful, beautiful earth is in trouble... more then ever it's important to put our angers aside and look to our commonality - we are humans, we have ONE PLANET. We are but specs, dandruff in the real scheme of things... the earth will have no problem continuing on w/out our species.

Let's continue to use this Forum for the Better Good of ALL and have gratitude for the opportunity to do so.

**POOF**
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          Anyone remember who this is?
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Water Cannons Failed.

Firetrucks Failed.

Overhead drops prove insignificant.

Radiation rising to lethal levels.

New cooling systems 3 days away.


and now

Pentagon says it's offering voluntary evacuation flights to all US military family members on Japan main island, Honshu.



Not looking good at the moment. Hopefully the tide will turn.
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Japan on the brink
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah, I have an idea. Because there is nothing to show.


If there was nothing to show, they would be showing that to calm down the populace.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Do you understand how much money 95% of ceo's and billionaires give in charity every year? The number is astounding. Just because there are a couple of rich greedy bigots doesn't mean that all corporations are inherently evil.


Such a huge sacrifice for them, what with the tax write-offs and all. Man, I am a bit bitter today- maybe I shouldn't read the news.
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Quoting Floodman:


What causes me the most concern is the lack of IR satellite images of the plant and it's environs...we know the US has them; there can be only one real reason they aren't publishing them


Ugh. I had not thought of that.
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Quoting bappit:

It sounded like socialism. Just saying.


With over 7 billion people on earth, there will have to be some Socialism, bappit...certainly not here (our poor folks can starve and die, no worries)
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indeed surf,..indeed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Oh no, I know all about corporations...there is a difference between capitalism and unfettered greed. You might want to try figuring it out sometime. Anything said bad about the corporations immediately puts me in an anti-corporation category? Your right wing extremism is, well, EXTREME! Get a clue...


Do you understand how much money 95% of ceo's and billionaires give in charity every year? The number is astounding. Just because there are a couple of rich greedy bigots doesn't mean that all corporations are inherently evil.
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Quoting toddluck:
miss ya surf!!
smile....came of our lurkdom for a we bit : )
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Just be patient and let technology progress, the cheapest thing will always be the most consumed thing. It's just the laws of the free market. Eventually technology will catch up and other things will be cleaner and cheaper than gas, and they will be the most widely used. Just from advancements in technology, look how much cleaner we are than 30 years ago, and how much cleaner 30 years ago than it was 60 years ago. Technology will continue to progress, and things will continue to become cleaner and more efficient.


Speaking of patience, Plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,100 years. And can be quite deadly if inhaled or ingested.
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Quoting Patrap:
And the Political Pundits entered the Ark,,two by Two,,Glenn next to Rush in the Elephant line..


LOL
Pssssst - their boat has a big A-hole. & no life-jackets due to no enforced safety regulation

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Quoting aquak9:
P451- it's not over yet
it can't be


If the Zirconium casings in the spent fuel inventory at #4 light up, it is over, to all intents and purposes. If that happens, the waste will be scattered over a wide area and the trust me, the HYSPLIT models will become extremely important for everyone, even us in the eastern half of the US.

What causes me the most concern is the lack of IR satellite images of the plant and it's environs...we know the US has them; there can be only one real reason they aren't publishing them
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miss ya surf!!
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@hurricanejunky -- when there are enough hungry bellies people will wake-up
"When a majority of the people are hungry & cold they will take by force what they need. And the little screaming fact that sounds all through history: Repression works only to strengthen & knit the repressed." John Steinback

"How can you frighten a man whose hunger is not only in his own cramped stomach, but in the wretched bellies of his children? You can't scare him -he has know fear beyond every other." John Steinbeck

this Nuke disaster is happening in Japan's bread basket....exponentially increasing the horror of the earth quake & Tsunami -- the farm land may be poisoned for generations (as are our oyster beds in LA thx to BP) Where will the rice be grown to feed Japans population..... and yes, it's a small world -- we too will be affected. CHA-CHING
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Kinda like you understand capitalism with your anti-corporation rants??


Oh no, I know all about corporations...there is a difference between capitalism and unfettered greed. You might want to try figuring it out sometime. Anything said bad about the corporations immediately puts me in an anti-corporation category? Your right wing extremism is, well, EXTREME! Get a clue...
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U.S. Marine Corps Sgt. John Smith tightens a strap to secure relief supplies on Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Japan, March 16, 2011. The Marines are assigned to the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force’s Combat Logistics Regiment 37, 3rd Marine Logistics Group. They are helping to deliver more than 140 cases of bottled water and other aid to residents on mainland Japan as part of Operation Tomodachi following the recent earthquake and tsunami. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Matheus

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
And the Political Pundits entered the Ark,,two by Two,,Glenn next to Rush in the Elephant line..


LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452

Quoting NRAamy:
129. cat5hurricane 8:39 AM PDT on March 17, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
In other news, our President is on vacation....

nice....
No, I heard he was filling out his NCAA tournament bracket.





cat5.... yeah, that too.... I'm so glad he has the time for those simple pleasures while so many are suffering....


give me a break...George Bush was sipping Lemonade on a front porch with one of his rich buddies while thousands were dying in Katrina...you've got to be kidding with this crap...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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