Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on March 17, 2011

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Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface over the next day or two as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific.


Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.

As the high pressure system moves northeastwards and passes just east of Japan on Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the west and then southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today and Friday could wind up over Alaska and eastern Siberia after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to Hawaii and California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.

The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan will occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday morning, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show that regions of Japan north of the disaster site would be most at risk of receiving radioactive fallout on Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, an approaching low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan, and it is uncertain at this time what direction the wind might blow during this rain storm.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 2 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plume emitted at 10 meters (red line) ends up getting caught in the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system situated north of Hawaii, and spirals down towards the surface in the high's sinking air. The plume emitted at higher altitudes (blue line) ends up escaping this high and making it over California at high altitude, getting caught in the southwesterly flow around a low pressure system predicted to affect California next week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Mumbai hits its hottest temperature of all-time
The temperature in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India skyrocketed to an all-time high of 107°F (41.6°C) yesterday, March 16, at the downtown Colaba observatory. Records at the observatory go back to 1847, which may be the longest time series of temperature observations at any location in Asia. Mumbai's previous all-time record temperature was 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on April 19, 1955. Mumbai's Santacruz Airport, located in the suburbs several miles inland, did not set an all-time high yesterday, hitting 41.3°C (all-time record: 42.2°C on April 14, 1952.) The record heat yesterday was due to an unusually hot and dry northeasterly flow of air from the center of India that kept the usual cooling sea breeze from establishing itself along the coast. Hot weather continued in Mumbai today, with the mercury hitting 102°F (39°C.) Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for supplying these statistics for me.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bappit:

Who would've thought there were sock puppets among WUBA's?????????????


LOL...I read the article and thought of a great number of people here...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Bully :)


Crud! I forgot to tell him to use COLD water...
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Quoting Orcasystems:



GASP!! Pat?

Who would've thought there were sock puppets among WUBA's?????????????
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6029
Coping skills and the way we all react changes over time as the calamity unfolds,..

PTSD and suffering on a large scale will and is manifesting in Japan as the event closes in on a week come tomorrow for them,,in a few hours.

Whole communities are devastated with debris piles to heights Biblical in scope.

The Human toll is terrible and the first responders and S and R teams are not finding survivors,,but remains in the large debris fields.

A earthquake,Tsunami and now a Radioactive Disaster are unprecedented in Human history as a trio.

Tokyo has a deafness to its day light hours and the Nation teeters on the brink of uncertainty.

How the World reacts to the relief needs is going to make a Huge difference in Lives.

And families, and communities.








Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
Quoting kellnerp:
Perspective Folks, Perspective

Link

Hourly Dose Examples

* Reported radiation at Fukushima I on March 15–16, 2011: 3–10 mSv/hr[7]
* Highest radiation reported at Fukushima I: 400 mSv/hour (briefly)[8]
* Approximate radiation levels near Chernobyl reactor 4 and its fragments, shortly[clarification needed] after explosion: ≈ 10,000–300,000 mSv/hr

Compare this to the Castle Bravo 5Mt blast in 1954
Radiation values in Rad






Castle Bravo was a 300 foot tower shot, wasn't it?
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NPR
Japan Quake Sparks Nuclear Energy Worries In Calif.

Link
Southern California Edison spokesman Steve Conroy says the company understands residents are worried, but the plant has never been safer. "Our main focus, and it has been since this plant has operated, is safety — safe operation of this facility," Conroy says.

But San Onofre has been fraught with problems. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has cited it for repeated safety violations. Employees were caught falsifying logs, and managers were reprimanded for retaliating against workers voicing safety concerns.

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Quoting Orcasystems:



GASP!! Pat?


I knew pat was a robot... hahahaha
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Quoting Patrap:
Im downloading a Fried Shrimp Po-boy,,but it's taking a tad longer than I expected


Have you cleared your browser cache? .... Oooops! I think he is affecting my responses now.
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Quoting Floodman:


Crap, I hate it when that happens! I had to stop getting the Roast Beef cause the gravy was a mess


SWMBO got an app that lets her turn her iphone into a remote for her Chevy Cruze... She was not impressed when I used it to set off the alarm :)
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Floodman, take a snort of this, it will calm you down son.
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Note to self - cats do not like baths.
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Quoting surfmom:
"The situation we're in now, w/multiple disasters, both natural & political, will become the norm for the next couple of years. We are at a cross-roads of history, where major forces affecting humanity are intersecting at the same temporal point. Now is the time for our species to chose wisely the means by which we will transmit our knowledge to the future. Certainly, bankers, lawyers and politicians are incapable of such selfless and insightful acts. It is up to us, the real & true inheritors of the future." BernardGrover

HEADS-UP!!! just the msgr folks
Published on Thursday, March 17, 2011 by The Guardian/UK
Revealed: US Spy Operation That Manipulates Social Media
Exclusive: Military's 'sock puppet' software creates fake online identities to spread pro-American propaganda

by Nick Fielding and Ian Cobain
Link
The US military is developing software that will let it secretly manipulate social media using fake online personas designed to influence internet conversations and spread pro-American propaganda.

General David Petraeus has said US efforts to spy on social media are aimed at 'countering extremist ideology and propaganda'. (Cliff Owen/AP) A Californian corporation has been awarded a contract with the US Central Command (Centcom) to develop what is described as an "online persona management service" that will allow one serviceman or woman to control up to 10 separate identities at once.



GASP!! Pat?
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Quoting Patrap:
Domilise's has a App now floodman and so does Guy's on Magazine.

But I should have just walked as the remoulade is everywhere now


Crap, I hate it when that happens! I had to stop getting the Roast Beef cause the gravy was a mess
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Quoting Floodman:


Is he declawed? I hope not; it's cruel to the cat and decreases the entertainment value of you washing him because your Gieger Counter app indicates that you should do so...


Bully :)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Floodman quit playing games with the kiddo


You deal with a global disaster your way, I'll deal with it my way...as, apparently, FloridaHeat is as well

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Perspective Folks, Perspective

The Sievert

Hourly Dose Examples

* Reported radiation at Fukushima I on March 15-16, 2011: 3-10 mSv/hr[7]
* Highest radiation reported at Fukushima I: 400 mSv/hour (briefly)[8]
* Approximate radiation levels near Chernobyl reactor 4 and its fragments, shortly[clarification needed] after explosion: 10,000-300,000 mSv/hr

Compare this to the Castle Bravo 5Mt blast in 1954
Radiation values in Rad




A ride through Chernobyl's aftermath.

Kid of Speed
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Domilise's has a App now floodman and so does Guy's on Magazine.

But I should have just walked as the remoulade is everywhere now
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
You have to give him credit. FlaHeat is good. His satirical responses are somewhat humorous. "Family Guy" may feel challenged?
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Floodman quit playing games with the kiddo
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Quoting toddluck:
Iodine/Potassium tablets

bet they have an app for that too


I really don't want to know where you have to put the phone for that
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Quoting Patrap:
Im downloading a Fried Shrimp Po-boy,,but it's taking a tad longer than I expected


It's not the Po-Boy, it's the remoulade...takes forever to download. You got it from Monster? They have the best downloads
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Quoting Floodman:


Is he declawed? I hope not; it's cruel to the cat and decreases the entertainment value of you washing him because your Gieger Counter app indicates that you should do so...


He is not declawed but don't worry I have him cornered on the lanai. I am making a bucket with water in it and mixing in some shampoo. I'm going to try to use the car washer with a long handle to wash him so I don't get scratched. Wish me luck! Gotta run before he contaminates the whole lanai! I'd hate to drain the pool!
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Allen's take on the explosions:

Allen agrees with reports that explosions caused by a hydrogen buildup likely blew the roof off the outer containment buildings at least two of the reactor sites, exposing pools that store highly radioactive spent nuclear fuel rods to the environment. But, based on reports he's heard or read, he thinks the explosion that occurred March 14 at the Daiichi Unit 2 reactor was a steam explosion inside the reactor pressure vessel that probably occurred when part of the exposed fuel core melted and allowed some of the liquefied fuel or super-hot fragments to drop into the water below.

"When that happens, you're going to have a massive steam explosion, which creates extremely high pressure in the reactor pressure vessel," Allen said. As has been noted in various news reports, the pressure dropped inside the reactor and radiation levels outside the unit rose significantly at about that time. That, he said, would seem to support conjecture that the vessel protecting the nuclear core may have been damaged or possibly ruptured and released some of the radioactive constituents.

"I've done many of these experiments," he said. "When you drop a molten core into water, there's a big explosion."

The worst of the worst could come if Japan can't come up with a way to sufficiently cool down the reactor fuel cores. That has reportedly become increasingly difficult with workers evacuating the sites -- at least temporarily -- because of high radiation fields.

"These things play out over a long period of time, longer than people would think," Allen said. "You have an earthquake that lasts maybe a minute, a tsunami that lasts maybe 15 minutes. But these things could go on for months. You could lose all six of the reactors."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6029
Quoting FloridaHeat:


I re-checked myself after a shower and my levels were very low. I just checked my cat and he had a high level. I am going to go wash him now. Be back later folks. I highly recommend downloading the app.


Is he declawed? I hope not; it's cruel to the cat and decreases the entertainment value of you washing him because your Gieger Counter app indicates that you should do so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
General David Petraeus has said US efforts to spy on social media are aimed at 'countering extremist ideology and propaganda'. (Cliff Owen/AP) A Californian corporation has been awarded a contract with the US Central Command (Centcom) to develop what is described as an "online persona management service" that will allow one serviceman or woman to control up to 10 separate identities at once.


Thats been in works here for a few years now..easily.

..why I saw one in a Publix recently using a I-phone close to the Lettuce.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, I did...
Japan Earthquake And Tsunami Disaster Death-Missing Toll Passes 12,000

(AFP) Posted Wednesday March 16, 2011 - 9:03am
The official number of dead and missing after a devastating earthquake and tsunami that flattened Japan's northeast coast has topped 12,000, police said Wednesday, but reports hinted at a much higher toll.

The number of confirmed dead from Friday's twin disasters stood at 4,277, while the official number of missing hit 8,194. A total of 2,282 people were injured in the disaster.

But reports continued to come in which indicated that the final toll could be much higher.

The mayor of the coastal town of Ishinomaki in Miyagi prefecture said Wednesday that the number of missing there was likely to hit 10,000, Kyodo News reported.

On Saturday, public broadcaster NHK reported that around 10,000 people were unaccounted for in the port town of Minamisanriku in the same prefecture.

Amid a mass rescue effort there were grim updates indicating severe loss of life along the battered east coast of Honshu island, where the monster waves destroyed or damaged more than 55,380 homes and other buildings....:(
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Interesting article on what would be the worst possible thing to happen. It's an interview of Dr. Michael Allen.

Allen has been at MTSU since 2007, but earlier in his career he worked more than 14 years at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico, where -- among other assignments -- he headed the federal lab's work on "severe accident phenomenology." That work included using a research reactor to actually melt the core of another reactor to better assess how the core relocates in an accident, as well as the release of fission products. He also conducted hydrogen and steam explosions at desert test sites outside Albuquerque, using reactor fuel simulants to assess the results.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6029
Iodine/Potassium tablets

bet they have an app for that too
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212 FloridaHeat "I have used my Geiger Counter phone...I got the highest readings when I held the phone directly against my chest."

It's that radioactive coffee. Sure to put hair on your chest.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Im downloading a Fried Shrimp Po-boy,,but it's taking a tad longer than I expected
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
"The situation we're in now, w/multiple disasters, both natural & political, will become the norm for the next couple of years. We are at a cross-roads of history, where major forces affecting humanity are intersecting at the same temporal point. Now is the time for our species to chose wisely the means by which we will transmit our knowledge to the future. Certainly, bankers, lawyers and politicians are incapable of such selfless and insightful acts. It is up to us, the real & true inheritors of the future." BernardGrover

HEADS-UP!!! just the msgr folks
Published on Thursday, March 17, 2011 by The Guardian/UK
Revealed: US Spy Operation That Manipulates Social Media
Exclusive: Military's 'sock puppet' software creates fake online identities to spread pro-American propaganda

by Nick Fielding and Ian Cobain
Link
The US military is developing software that will let it secretly manipulate social media using fake online personas designed to influence internet conversations and spread pro-American propaganda.

General David Petraeus has said US efforts to spy on social media are aimed at 'countering extremist ideology and propaganda'. (Cliff Owen/AP) A Californian corporation has been awarded a contract with the US Central Command (Centcom) to develop what is described as an "online persona management service" that will allow one serviceman or woman to control up to 10 separate identities at once.
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250. auburn (Mod)
Here is the latest US map update Heat...

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Quoting FloridaHeat:


Luckily I have the day off today!


Well, that's fortunate...you probably want to get to the hospital right away if your "Gieger Counter" indicates you've been exposed...you'll have to take some Iodine/Potassium tablets for a while to decrease your risk of thyroid cancer; Iodine 131 is a killer
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FlaHeat- the car wash is a good idea. And recheck yourself afterwards.

This is serious- you could affect your family, your pets, and your friends.
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Quoting Floodman:


There's an app called "Ghost Radar" too...might want to get that one too


I will check it out. My favorite app is Angry Birds. I am very good at it and I hope to play in an Angry Birds tournament some day.
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What I want to know is how they make the scintillator crystal downloadable. Instantaneous matter transport and integration... wow!

There is a way a smart phone could be used as a detector... the semiconductor electronics would change in the presence of ionizing radiation. I just wouldn't want to be anywhere near a source that strong. Yikes.
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Quoting aquak9:
FlaHeat- you can not go to work if you are emitting radiation.

You've GOT to tell your manager to let you bring in carts or something- you can't bag groceries if you are irradiating the produce.


Luckily I have the day off today!
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sorry heat i was being sarcastic
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241. auburn (Mod)
Quoting FloridaHeat:


You have been scammed. I just looked at a map and Arizona does not have ocean front property. Perhaps you bought lake front?


If I know Todd...he got the real deal...perhaps your map is out of date?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its a cheap trick the phone cannot detect rad levels but you go ahead and believe what you want to believe
hold it next to your ear maybe you will hear voices too


At least now it is fairly clear that he is spoofing us. Clever fellow, if a little annoying.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


There's an app called "Ghost Radar" too...might want to get that one too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.