Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on March 17, 2011

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Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface over the next day or two as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific.


Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.

As the high pressure system moves northeastwards and passes just east of Japan on Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the west and then southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today and Friday could wind up over Alaska and eastern Siberia after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to Hawaii and California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.

The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan will occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday morning, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show that regions of Japan north of the disaster site would be most at risk of receiving radioactive fallout on Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, an approaching low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan, and it is uncertain at this time what direction the wind might blow during this rain storm.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 2 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plume emitted at 10 meters (red line) ends up getting caught in the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system situated north of Hawaii, and spirals down towards the surface in the high's sinking air. The plume emitted at higher altitudes (blue line) ends up escaping this high and making it over California at high altitude, getting caught in the southwesterly flow around a low pressure system predicted to affect California next week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Mumbai hits its hottest temperature of all-time
The temperature in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India skyrocketed to an all-time high of 107°F (41.6°C) yesterday, March 16, at the downtown Colaba observatory. Records at the observatory go back to 1847, which may be the longest time series of temperature observations at any location in Asia. Mumbai's previous all-time record temperature was 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on April 19, 1955. Mumbai's Santacruz Airport, located in the suburbs several miles inland, did not set an all-time high yesterday, hitting 41.3°C (all-time record: 42.2°C on April 14, 1952.) The record heat yesterday was due to an unusually hot and dry northeasterly flow of air from the center of India that kept the usual cooling sea breeze from establishing itself along the coast. Hot weather continued in Mumbai today, with the mercury hitting 102°F (39°C.) Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for supplying these statistics for me.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sunlinepr:
In my opinion, if you look around in the world, in every country you will find institutions and business where the inflow of money is less than the amount of money going out...
Make the math equation and see...
Taking sports as business; NBA, NFL, FIFA, The Barcelona soccer team in Spain, and many others for example...
How much money is paid to team members vs. income
There is no way you can balance that checking account..
In every country in the world money laundering is vital for maintaining the economy

That is the reason why repeat offenders go free and perpetuate multiple violent crimes over and over again.

It's also the reason why drug cartels and other corrupt organizations can operate so effectively for extended periods of time, decade after decade.
And the "underground" money is the reason governments would like to go to smart cards and do away with currency all together. Easier to tax everything. I would like to see our government do at least what the British did. When they got rid of their paper pound note and issued the coin, I was told that they had given the populace a certain amount of time to exchange them. We need to do that with our paper dollar. It would save us tons of money. "steps off soap box"
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Good Lord I hate Calculus word problems.


Just remember that the slope of the tangent line and the slope of the curve are the same thing. The rest is just visualizing the problem, rather just the application of the math. Don't you think solving Calculus word problems is helping those trying to figure out the solution to the current problem in Japan.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
Quoting guygee:
Everyone discussing background radiation effects in the USA is missing the point. It is true we do not expect large increases in radiation this far away from the accident. The real danger will be from certain dangerous radioactive isotopes, particularly Pu-239. Reactor #3 was being fueled by mixed oxide (MOX) fuel that contains plutonium, and every reactor had stored above it all of the "spent" atomic fuel from 40 years of use, that also includes plutonium. Plutonium-239 is a powerful alpha emitter that produces 0.06 microcuries/microgram, or roughly 2200 alpha particles per second. The half-life is 24200 years. Anyone that inhales even a small particle of plutonium is at great risk for developing cancer sooner or later. If you are older, you may die of other causes first, but if you are younger and inhale a small particle of Pu-239, your fate is sealed.

Oh yeah try to stay away from the Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 as well. Good Luck!


Good post guy, as with any toxic release events (oil spills, nuclear waste, fracking, etc.) there will always be effects no matter how many jaws flap to the contrary. You always hear about studies later that show cancer rates increasing at a dramatic rate or some sort of widespread negative health effects on the surrounding population. Never fails...but we're always spoonfed horse manure on the front end along with some type of cover up. Quite annoying really...
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Leave the nuke plants alone!! De-regulate, de-regulate, de-regulate! Cutting into profits is socialism!

Tongue firmly in cheek and sarcasm meter pegged!



Regulating business to make sure their operations are safe is no doubt socialism, maybe even communism! To say otherwise makes you a fool!

(massive doses of sarcasm)
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Tongue firmly in cheek and sarcasm meter pegged!

Is that like a geiger counter?
Is there an app for that, too?

(don't worry folks, the main act will be here soon-I'm just an opener)

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432. Skyepony (Mod)
98S is now 18S.CHERONO Headed toward Madagascar. Probably curve south before it gets there. Some to watch this week. After 48hrs should start tapping a little warmer water.
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Everyone discussing enhanced background radiation effects in the USA is missing the point. It is true we do not expect large increases in radiation this far away from the accident. The real danger will be from certain dangerous radioactive isotopes, particularly Pu-239. Reactor #3 was being fueled by mixed oxide (MOX) fuel that contains plutonium, and every reactor had stored above it all of the "spent" atomic fuel from 40 years of use, that also includes plutonium. Plutonium-239 is a powerful alpha emitter that produces 0.06 microcuries/microgram, or roughly 2200 alpha particles per second. The half-life is 24200 years. Anyone that inhales even a small particle of plutonium is at great risk for developing cancer sooner or later. If you are older, you may die of other causes first, but if you are younger and inhale a small particle of Pu-239, your fate is sealed.

Oh yeah try to stay away from the Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 as well. Good Luck!
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Quoting Grothar:


Just look at the post number, then look to the right of the number. It usually tells you the name of the blogger. LOL How you doing Canes?. Heard you got a job as a bag boy at Publix?


Doing good Grothar. I wasn't offered one but i'd gladly take it if it was offered at the one next to me ;)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, I know that. Very, very few things set me off but, that is one of them. I didn't even realize it was RecordSeason I was responding to until after I responded. Even with that, the link in my post still works.

I had a discussion with the wall (verbally) and I feel much better now.

Coffee, anyone?


LOL!!! I got a good chuckle out of that one...glad to hear you're squared away now...I could go for some ice coffee as long as it's Baby's Coffee!
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Quoting Floodman:


Predictions are relatively useless; conditions change too rapidly and incrementally for any long range forecast to be entirely accurate for anything other than a ballpark prediction of formation.

To make a precdiction of general landfall areas is useless as even now, with all of our technology, we can't say with any certainty that a storm will hit within 300 or 400 miles of a particular city or area more than 72-96 hours from landfall...hurricane season is at best a roller coaster ride.
I did not ask for a prediction, just thoughts. There is a difference. Thanks for the response anyway. So Floodman , how are you doing?
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Almost August??

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Good Lord I hate Calculus word problems.
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Quoting Skyepony:
#
1939: President Obama says he has ordered a review of US nuclear facilities as a precaution, but believes they are safe.



Does that include terrorists, earthquakes, house sweeping flooding events & meteors?


#
1944: Meanwhile, one of the world's most nuclear-friendly nations, France, announces it will look at tightening up its rules on the export of reactors, according to Reuters.


Leave the nuke plants alone!! De-regulate, de-regulate, de-regulate! Cutting into profits is socialism!

Tongue firmly in cheek and sarcasm meter pegged!

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This Reuters vid shows them dropping water from helicopters. Not a high percentage tactic.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5951
Japan radiation sets off O'Hare airport alarms - CBS News Chicago station reports trace amounts of radiation clinging to flights from country ravaged by earthquake,

Updated at 3:01 p.m. ET

Trace amounts of radiation from Japan have been detected in Chicago, CBS News station WBBM-TV reports.

Travelers coming in from Japan on Wednesday triggered radiation detectors at O'Hare International Airport as they passed through customs. Only very small amounts of radiation were detected.

"We are aware of the radiation," said Chicago Aviation Department spokeswoman Karen Pride. "We are adding screenings and precautionary measures."

In one instance, radiation was detected in a plane's air filtration system. Radiation was also found in luggage and on passengers on flights from Japan.

Mayor Richard M. Daley and other city officials wouldn't provide any additional details, saying federal authorities were handling the situation.

"Of course the protection of the person coming off the plane is important in regards to any radiation and especially within their families," Daley said at an unrelated event.

Link
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Quoting caneswatch:


Who wrote post number 300?

Nevermind, I saw who it is.


Just look at the post number, then look to the right of the number. It usually tells you the name of the blogger. LOL How you doing Canes?. Heard you got a job as a bag boy at Publix?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
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418. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Floodman:


Wow, so France is closing it's international nuclear house of ill repute? Where will all the disreputable thrid worlders get their stuff from now on?


Don't panic, they are saying they may consider it;)


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Looks like things are finally under control


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting JFLORIDA:


with what - a magic entomb button?


I think they have an app for that
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ITCZ off Africa.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


You're wasting your time. I know you mean well but you're going to find it's a lost cause.


Yes, I know that. Very, very few things set me off but, that is one of them. I didn't even realize it was RecordSeason I was responding to until after I responded. Even with that, the link in my post still works.

I had a discussion with the wall (verbally) and I feel much better now.

Coffee, anyone?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting JFLORIDA:


with what - a magic entomb button?


Classic!!
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412. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT of 90Q
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Burn bans are in effect in two-thirds of Texas
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5951
just like a few spokesman back in the 70's and early 80s said this will turn into a ball of hot energy burn a hole through the earth presto tennessee where it all started
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Quoting Skyepony:
#
1939: President Obama says he has ordered a review of US nuclear facilities as a precaution, but believes they are safe.



Does that include terrorists, earthquakes, house sweeping flooding events & meteors?


#
1944: Meanwhile, one of the world's most nuclear-friendly nations, France, announces it will look at tightening up its rules on the export of reactors, according to Reuters.


Wow, so France is closing it's international nuclear house of ill repute? Where will all the disreputable third worlders get their stuff from now on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5951
406. Skyepony (Mod)
#
1939: President Obama says he has ordered a review of US nuclear facilities as a precaution, but believes they are safe.



Does that include terrorists, earthquakes, house sweeping flooding events & meteors?


#
1944: Meanwhile, one of the world's most nuclear-friendly nations, France, announces it will look at tightening up its rules on the export of reactors, according to Reuters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFLORIDA:
The rundown from what I gathered (correct me with linked sources) :

reactors 1 - 3 that were operating during the quake all probably received damage to their fuel systems involving varying degrees of melt down. Containment at 3 is most likely breached. The other two reactors also possibly. Cooling ponds 4 5 and 6 have known/likely leak issues. 1-3 are too warm. There have been suspected fuel fires at 4 as the water level is suspected to be well below the tops of the rods.

New:

Tepco, the company that operates the plant, has increased its workforce at the power station from 180 to 322 and replaced those who have reached %u2013 or in some cases surpassed %u2013 the maximum allowed dose of radiation.

Sir John Beddington, the UK government's chief science adviser, who are most concerned about the storage pool at reactor 4, which they say is now completely empty.

"The water is pretty much gone," Beddington said, adding that storage pools at reactors 5 and 6 were leaking. "

Nah, not according to TEPCO; everything is just fine. This is a minor glitch, something that could happen anywhere. See this photo of Unit #4? It clearly shows just a minor ceiling collapse. Those aren't reinforced concrete beams all blasted apart; that's just drywall and insulation. And just because you don't see any water doesn't mean it's not there; it's just hidden from view and doing its job keeping things cool and stable. No, there's nothing to worry about. Nothing at all.:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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Quoting bappit:

I'm trying to get pointers from some WUBA's on that.


Yeah, he does have a few puppets here...LOL
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Using Admin like color for your post is not a good ideal. Are you trying to impersonate someone from Admin?
Even though your message is on point, your use of color is not.


Who wrote post number 300?

Nevermind, I saw who it is.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


_________________________________________________ _____

The Constitution is a changing document through the amendment process. You do not just say that times have changed and ignore the Constitution. Should the Constitution warrant an amendment, then the Constitution allows for this through a set guideline of procedures. Just because you think a part of the Constitution is outdated DOES NOT amend the Constitution. You either support our Constitution or you do not. You do not get to pick and choose. It is not a buffet line of guidelines. Eat all you want and throw the rest away? See how that works out for you.

I am a paid member of this blog. I do not set the guidelines for this blog. I am not one of the long time posters on this blog. I have no right to ask this of you but, perhaps, you would find one these blogs more to your liking for making your posts?

Link


You're wasting your time. I know you mean well but you're going to find it's a lost cause.
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6.36am Trace amounts of radiation from Japan have been detected in the mid-western US city of Chicago reported CBS. Japanese travellers landing at O'Hare airport reportedly triggered radiation detectors, however the amounts detected were very small.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1Gt6hRuY T
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DARN! I got to comment #300 too late. It has been removed for violating community standards. Hi everyone. Interesting blog today.
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High radiation levels hamper efforts to cool Japanese reactors
Workers are forced to pull back in their attempt to use helicopters and water cannons to spray the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant and stave off a meltdown. About 30 tons of seawater dumped from helicopters mostly miss their target.


High radiation levels at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant have forced workers to abandon at least temporarily their desperate efforts to spray water from helicopters and water cannons in a last-ditch effort to cool the plants and stave off a meltdown.

Helicopters supplied by Japan's military dumped only four loads of seawater, totaling about 30 tons, on the plant, before abandoning the effort Thursday morning, although officials said they would resume efforts when possible. Most of the water missed the reactors.

Shortly after the helicopters made their runs, police and military vehicles mounting water cannons normally used to control riots began spraying water at the reactors, but they too had to pull back because of the high radiation levels emanating from the plant.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting RecordSeason:


If you are a conservative then you ought to know that the constitution itself contains ammendments and articles concerning ammendments. Why? Because the people who wrote the thing realized it's just a piece of paper and is not all sufficient. That's why ammendments exist because they knew it was insufficient and that times change back when they wrote it.


In modern times, the 4th ammendment, and certainly the modern application and interpretation thereof, has essentially become a "hall pass" for criminal activity, and it needs to stop.


It's also completely irrational and ridiculous that you must hold a trial even in cases where you already know beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is guilty, such as in the case of Loughner.


_________________________________________________ _____

The Constitution is a changing document through the amendment process. You do not just say that times have changed and ignore the Constitution. Should the Constitution warrant an amendment, then the Constitution allows for this through a set guideline of procedures. Just because you think a part of the Constitution is outdated DOES NOT amend the Constitution. You either support our Constitution or you do not. You do not get to pick and choose. It is not a buffet line of guidelines. Eat all you want and throw the rest away? See how that works out for you.

I am a paid member of this blog. I do not set the guidelines for this blog. I am not one of the long time posters on this blog. I have no right to ask this of you but, perhaps, you would find one these blogs more to your liking for making your posts?

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
In my opinion, if you look around in the world, in every country you will find institutions and business where the inflow of money is less than the amount of money going out...
Make the math equation and see...
Taking sports as business; NBA, NFL, FIFA, The Barcelona soccer team in Spain, and many others for example...
How much money is paid to team members vs. income
There is no way you can balance that checking account..
In every country in the world money laundering is vital for maintaining the economy

That is the reason why repeat offenders go free and perpetuate multiple violent crimes over and over again.

It's also the reason why drug cartels and other corrupt organizations can operate so effectively for extended periods of time, decade after decade.
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Quoting RecordSeason:


Didn't congress cut like half of the NOAA and NHC funding for this year? Not to mention the weather satellite disasters...

The models probably arent going to be as reliable this year as they have been in the past. They are likely going to be set back 5 or 10 years in accuracy due to all of these issues. After all, the model's output is only as good as the resolution of the input data...


That wonderful new Congress. They've really got their finger on the pulse of the country. NOT!
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Seems the Publix guy has been found,,,

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting Floodman:


Wow, and I thought I was cynical...LOL

So how goes the campaign to be Bastardi's sock puppet?

I'm trying to get pointers from some WUBA's on that.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5951
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Sorry, I ain't taking that rap. Have a nice day.
:)


LMAO
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Quoting Patrap:
well Im no pysichits,Physichican,,..er, atom Guy.

LOL


Nice!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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