Favorable winds over Japan carrying radioactivity out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2011

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If there is going to be a major nuclear disaster with massive release of radioactivity into the atmosphere from Japan's stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, today would be the best day meteorologically for this to occur. The low pressure system that brought rain and several inches of snow to Japan yesterday has moved northeastwards out to sea, and high pressure is building in. The clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest is driving strong northwesterly winds of 10 - 20 mph over the region. These winds will continue through Thursday, and will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken reactors immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific. The contaminated air will remain over the ocean for at least five days, which is plenty of time for the radiation to settle out to the surface.


Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.

Thursday night and Friday morning (U.S. time), the high pressure system moves over Japan, allowing winds to weaken and potentially grow calm, increasing the danger of radioactivity building up over regions near and to the north of the nuclear plant. On Friday, the high departs and a moist southwesterly flow of air will affect Japan. These southwesterly winds will blow most of the radiation out to sea, away from Tokyo. Southwesterly winds will continue through Sunday, when the next major low pressure system is expected to bring heavy precipitation to the country. Beginning Thursday night, the sinking airmass over Japan will be replaced a large-scale area of rising air, and any radiation emitted late Thursday through Friday will be carried aloft towards Alaska and eastern Russia by this southwesterly flow of rising air.

Ground-level releases of radioactivity are typically not able to be transported long distances in significant quantities, since most of the material settles to the ground a few kilometers from the source. If there is a major explosion with hot gases that shoots radioactivity several hundred meters high, that would increase the chances for long range transport, since now the ground is farther away, and the particles that start settling out will stay in the air longer before encountering the ground. Additionally, winds are stronger away from ground, due to reduced friction and presence of the jet stream aloft. These stronger winds will transport radioactivity greater distances. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur from an explosion and fire from a Chernobyl-style incident. Given that the radioactivity has to travel 3000 miles to reach Anchorage, Alaska, and 5000 miles to reach California, a very large amount of dilution will occur, along with potential loss due to rain-out. Any radiation at current levels of emission that might reach these places may not even be detectable, much less be a threat to human health. A Chernobyl-level disaster in Japan would certainly be able to produce detectable levels of radiation over North America, but I strongly doubt it would be a significant concern for human health. The Chernobyl disaster only caused dangerous human health impacts within a few hundred miles of the disaster site, and the distance from Japan to North America is ten times farther than that.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Wednesday, March 16, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 3.5 km altitude by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Rare subtropical cyclone forms near Brazil
An unusual low pressure system that came close to becoming a tropical storm is in the South Atlantic, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Brazil. The Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center has officially named the system Subtropical Storm "Arani", but I'm not sure the low would have been named by NHC, since Arani has somewhat of a loose circulation and limited heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is expected to move slowly eastward out to sea, and does not pose a threat to South America. The latest run of the GFDL model shows little development of Arani, and the storm is now encountering a frontal system, which is bringing 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. It is unlikely that Arani will become a tropical storm. Some runs of the GFDL last weekend were predicting Arani would intensify into a Category 3 hurricane; that's the first time I've even seen such a prediction for a South Atlantic storm. The metsul.com blog has more info on Arani, for those of you who read Portugese.


Figure 5. During the daytime on Tuesday 15 March 2011 at 1820 UTC the TRMM satellite flew over a rare cyclone labeled Arani in the South Atlantic. Arani had the appearance of a tropical cyclone but has been classified as a subtropical cyclone. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service classified Arani as a T1 on the Dvorak intensity scale which would indicate an estimated wind speed of about 29 kt (~33 mph). TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data were used in the image above to show rainfall near Arani. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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415. RitaEvac
9:25 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
It's too bad there aren't live camera feeds coming outta those buildings (no power for one, and a luxury item that's not really needed) but I'd like to see what the hell is going on in there and what it looks like.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
414. Patrap
9:24 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
413. WeatherNerdPR
9:23 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Quoting CFLWX:



In other news while this guy above is wasting my time It looks as the powerline is almost ready to go so hopefully this works and our friends in Japan can breath easier.

That sounds great for Japan. Hopefully they will recover quickly.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
411. CybrTeddy
9:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


So however destructive, Alex, Earl, Hermine, Karl and Matthew will all be used once again. Unbelievable.


I'd certainly like to hear why Karl wasn't retired. Maybe Mexico forgot to request retirement under all the drug wars and stuff.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
410. WeatherNerdPR
9:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
How on Earth could Karl NOT be retired?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
409. AstroHurricane001
9:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Hmm, so shifts in ocean currents can affect Earth's rotation and axis! Very interesting indeed.

Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland, has now frozen over in sea ice...somewhat.



Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
407. RitaEvac
9:17 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Pretty soon someone will say radiation will keep the 2011 season numbers down, because basically the storms will be nuked/or cooked by doses of radiation. That's it! that is the missing link to weaken hurricanes! we discovered it after the Japan meltdown.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
406. cyclonekid
9:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Sub-tropical Storm Arani
Information courtesy of the ATCF site

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
405. MrMixon
9:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Hmmm... maybe you read 10 inches somewhere, but the shift in the earth's axis was certainly nowhere near 10 degrees (a shift of that magnitude would be catastrophic and immediately noticeable). The actual shift is certainly worth a mention, but it's closer to 7 inches according to Richard Gross of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Moreover, this 7 inch shift was to the "figure axis" of the earth, rather than the rotational axis. The "figure axis" refers to the center of mass around which the earth rotates and is distinct from the rotational axis. More below...

Gross's calculations...indicate the Japan quake should have shifted the position of the Earth's figure axis by about 17 cm (6.69 in), towards 133 degrees east longitude. Not to be confused with the Earth's north-south axis, the figure axis is that about which the Earth's mass is balanced. While the slight shift will cause the Earth to wobble a bit differently as it rotates, it won't cause a shift of Earth's axis in space, which can only be affected by external forces such as the gravitational pull of the sun, moon or planets.

Gross points out that the changes to the Earth's rotation and shift of its axis aren't anything to be worried about. "Earth's rotation changes all the time as a result of not only earthquakes, but also the much larger effects of changes in atmospheric winds and oceanic currents," he said. "Over the course of a year, the length of the day increases and decreases by about a millisecond, or about 550 times larger than the change caused by the Japanese earthquake. The position of Earth's figure axis also changes all the time, by about one meter (3.3 feet) over the course of a year, or about six times more than the change that should have been caused by the Japan quake."


More info

Quoting Seasidecove:
I haven't heard to much on this topic, but I was wondering. After the earthquake in Japan, it was reported by news medias, that the quake was so violent, that it caused the earth to tilt it axis some 10 degrees.
Does anyone have any idea as to how this may effect the upcoming 2011 hurricane season, as far as SST's or other factors goes?

It seems when something like these events occur, things take a turn for the worse during Hurricane Season.

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
404. Patrap
9:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2011



Save the Children opens first child-friendly space in Sendai, Japan

Source: Save the Children

Date: 16 Mar 2011


Media Contacts

Eileen Burke, eburke@savechildren.org, (o) 203-221-4233, (c) 203-216-0718

Lane Hartill, lhartill@savechildren.org, (o) 202-640-6608, (c) 202-294-9700

SENDAI, Japan. (March 16, 2011) — Save the Children has opened the first child-friendly space in Sendai, Japan, less than five days after the city was hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami.

The space opened Wednesday in a primary school currently being used as an evacuation center. Supervised by Save the Children staff, it contains toys and games aimed at 5-12 year olds affected by the disaster.

Child-friendly spaces are protective environments where children can gather to play and talk about their experiences with supervisors and each other, allowing them to establish a routine in a chaotic situation.

Play and routine are recognized as important ways for children to overcome traumatic experiences.

The supervised play areas also give parents time to concentrate on finding food, search for missing relatives and meet other pressing needs in the aftermath of a disaster.

Steve McDonald, Save the Children's team leader in Sendai said: "Children we've met are having nightmares and are terrified of another tsunami. It's essential that we do everything to help them come to terms with what's happened to them, and that's where the child-friendly spaces and other activities come in."

"Parents in Sendai can now leave their children in a safe place as they start putting their lives back together. This will be the first in a network of child friendly spaces across the affected area."

Save the Children is planning on setting up more child-friendly spaces over the coming days to complement the Japanese government-led relief effort helping the affected population.

Up to 100,000 children were displaced by last week's earthquake, which triggered devastating tsunamis and damaged nuclear power facilities on Japan's east coast.

The displaced population are living in some 2,500 evacuation centers set up across northeastern Japan in recent days.

Save the Children's relief operation is being run from Tokyo, with an operational base in Sendai, the closest city to the earthquake's epicenter.

Donate now to the Japan Earthquake Tsunami Children in Emergency Fund to support Save the Children's relief efforts and responses to children's ongoing and urgent needs.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
403. TampaSpin
9:15 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Gonna go contibute to global warming and also nuke myself.....gotta mow the grass.......bbl


Dont get me wrong i do feel for the people in Japan but, some of these post are so freaking funny!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
402. AstroHurricane001
9:13 PM GMT on March 16, 2011
Here are the current casualty numbers and damages from the 2010 Atlantic season, from Wikipedia:

Alex - 51 killed, 21 missing, $1.885 billion USD
TD 2 - 1 killed, unknown damage
Bonnie - 1 killed, $1.5 million USD
Colin - 1 killed, no damage
TD 5 - 2 killed, $7.1 million USD
Danielle - 1 killed, minimal damage
Earl - 8 killed, $45 million USD
Fiona - No deaths, minimal damage
Gaston - No deaths, minimal damage
Hermine - 102 killed (incl. TD 11-E), ~100 missing, $740 million USD
Igor - 4 killed, $200 million USD; RETIRED
Julia - No deaths, minimal damage
Karl - 22 killed, $5.6 billion USD
Lisa - No deaths, no damage
Matthew - 126 killed, 17 missing, $2.6 billion USD
Nicole - 13 killed, $235.4 million USD
Otto - No deaths, $22 million USD
Paula - 1 killed, unknown damage
Richard - 2 killed, $80 million USD
Shary - No deaths, minimal damage
Tomas - 69 killed, $626 million USD; RETIRED

Not a single storm that caused over $1 billion USD in damage or killed more than 100 people was retired.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
hey!!:nate dogg died of natural causes,he did not get shot you ignoraimus,probably a racist by the sound of your comment,could have easily been someone in your family,think about that!!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Does anyone know how long once the NUKE Rods have no Water on them does it take for a Total Melt down to occur?
not long first they fuse together then they go molten then drop down into bottom of the vessel there in then melt thought the vessel to floor then into the floor all the way to well you get the picture
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I for one am thrilled you're here to tell all of us idiots to calm down. Silly us getting all worked up over those insignificant little nuke plants in Japan. Is there any way that you could leave condescension out of your posts? It gets seriously annoying after a while. Did the earthquake and tsunami in Japan happen in your world? The nuclear plant situation in Japan is absolutely serious. Take a look at what's going on there and you might realize that.


You are completely missing the point.

Everyone is fear mongering about the reactors. Few know anything about the real risks of radiation, as can be seen by people rushing out to by pills or spreading over-hyped fear and sensationalization through media, email, and blogs posts. All this focus on the reactors and radiation, all this misinformation, is detrimental to the real serious problem in Japan, which is hundreds of thousands without power, clean water, food, and shelter.

People 3000 miles away from a major natural catastrophe are more worried about protecting themselves against the non-existent radiation bogeyman than they are about the people who are freezing to death in Japan and at much greater risk of exposure in the event of a significant radiation release.

If people really wanted to help, they would stop being fear-swilling apocalyptic ignoramuses propelled by FUD and media sensationalism and send the money they would waste on buying pills they don't need over to Japan where it might actually help and save lives.

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Wow look at the after hour Futures......HOLLY CRAP!

U.S. Stock Futures
Data as of 4:44pm ET
Dow -196.00 / -1.66%

For anyone to suggest that the US economy would not be severely hurt by this.....please email FloridaHeat
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Someone define "total melt down". I see the term used but have never seen a definition.

(queue the total melt down jokes)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaHeat:
I must go to my job at Publix now. I will try to update you tomorrow on the Japan situation. If you have an emergency, you can always email me because I do check my WUmail.

FloridaHeat.......Just why do you feel we need to email you? Do you have inside information that none of us know...I am confused
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5862
dos any one no if they have upgrade from level 6 too level 7 on there plant overe there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I haven't heard to much on this topic, but I was wondering. After the earthquake in Japan, it was reported by news medias, that the quake was so violent, that it caused the earth to tilt it axis some 10 degrees.
Does anyone have any idea as to how this may effect the upcoming 2011 hurricane season, as far as SST's or other factors goes?

It seems when something like these events occur, things take a turn for the worse during Hurricane Season.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Yet do you want a month's worth of radiation every day? A year's worth in 12? A decades' worth in 4 months time?

Not that it would stick around that long but you get the idea.

Duration of exposure to these readings hasn't been discussed.

Although who knows what any of us experience sitting face first into a computer monitor the majority of every day versus if we just simply mowed grass for a living.



Actually, if you're sitting in front of an LCD screen you aren't getting much at all. CRT's are a different matter of course, but even then the radiation exposure wasn't that much.

Long flights can give you a few chest x-rays worth, and tobacco can double you're radiation exposure or more. If you have a basement sitting on top of granite rock there's a good chance you're getting more radiation than the average bear.Bananas will also give a little nude in the radiation department.

The damage you get depends on the exposure, the radiation type, and the duration. Here's a a quick link to a list of radiation exposures:
Link

As you can see, it takes quit a bit before anything serious will happen. That doesn't mean there shouldn't be concern, but when you here things like "22 times normal", it should be put into context. For example, 22 times normal daily rate is equivalent to a cervical spine x-ray.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
What the heck are you talking about?


Uh, I think it was in jest. If anyone thinks he was serious (even if HE says he was) then the joke is on them! LOL!
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A lil Update on portlights's activity in regards to Japan.

After a converstaion with Presslord who is on the road from Atlanta,we continue to coordinate with in Country Disabled People's Organizations (DPO's) working in Japan to serve people with disabilities in the area's affected by the earthquake there.

Even a Great Society as the Japanese have issue's with the disabled in everyday normal Life,,and one can Imagine the difficulties those now face in the great destruction we see there now.

However there is one Lady among 4-6 others who has taken on the difficult task of meeting the disabled needs.

A Woman near the Sandei region has taking in Numerous Elderly Disabled survivors in a Place of safety and is caring for them awhile awaiting evacuation to relief areas set up outside the Impacted zone.

Paul spoke of numerous needs relayed to Him via this individual.

Please help us help them.


wunderground portlight entry
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Does anyone know how long once the NUKE Rods have no Water on them does it take for a Total Melt down to occur?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TampaSpin:


John, John, I qualify in that group of idiots..........Whats for dinner.....please not a microwave dinner!


you said it not me...
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Dude no one is going to email you. The only question someone will ask you is can you carry my bags to my car. You really are making allot of friends here.


Bro, he sounds very qualified......i think we should all email him for some advice........ROFLMAO YA THINK!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Patrap:
03/16/2011
GATHERING TO GO

Japanese soldiers gather for instruction on Kadena Air Base, Japan, March 16, 2011, before heading to mainland Japan with U.S. airmen to support humanitarian and recovery efforts. The U.S. has sent airmen, aircraft and thousands of pounds of relief supplies to northern Japan from Kadena Air Base. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Sara Csurilla







MIYAGI DAMAGE

U.S. Navy Petty Officer 3rd Class Garrett Krygier surveys the destruction in Miyagi prefecture, Japan, March 14, 2011, from an 8.9-magnitude earthquake and tsunami that struck northern Japan. Krygier is an aircrewman assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron 14, based on Naval Air Facility Atsugi, Tomodachi. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Ben Farone




From what I can make of that writing...
"No. 15 Brigade
Disaster Management/Rescue"?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting islander101010:
power line is almost ready to go good news probally need to evacuate the north part of that island basically move everyone south


i wonder if it will allow power to homes as well as the plant. at lunch I went to eat sushi and asked the waitress if her family was ok in japan and she said they had no power, didnt know when and or if they would, and they have an infant and it is so cold there, not to mention they are all afraid of the nuclear situation and afraid to go outside. that must be so scarey to have an infant in that situation.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Stories about radiation measurements should include when, where, how much, and for how long. But all the press asks is "can this happen in the U.S." and "What is the worst case scenario. Until we get answers to the important questions we are just speculating as to the severity of the situation. One thing is for sure in my opinion. It is not possible for it to get as bad as Chernoble because of the basic design of these plants, but it is probably worse than TMI (mostly because TMI was not very bad).


Amen.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I for one am thrilled you're here to tell all of us idiots to calm down. Silly us getting all worked up over those insignificant little nuke plants in Japan. Is there any way that you could leave condescension out of your posts? It gets seriously annoying after a while. Did the earthquake and tsunami in Japan happen in your world? The nuclear plant situation in Japan is absolutely serious. Take a look at what's going on there and you might realize that.


John, John, I qualify in that group of idiots..........Whats for dinner.....please not a microwave dinner!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I for one am thrilled you're here to tell all of us idiots to calm down. Silly us getting all worked up over those insignificant little nuke plants in Japan. Is there any way that you could leave condescension out of your posts? It gets seriously annoying after a while. Did the earthquake and tsunami in Japan happen in your world? The nuclear plant situation in Japan is absolutely serious. Take a look at what's going on there and you might realize that.


Stories about radiation measurements should include when, where, how much, and for how long. But all the press asks is "can this happen in the U.S." and "What is the worst case scenario. Until we get answers to the important questions we are just speculating as to the severity of the situation. One thing is for sure in my opinion. It is not possible for it to get as bad as Chernoble because of the basic design of these plants, but it is probably worse than TMI (mostly because TMI was not very bad).
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OK, now I really really have to go. I'm going to be late!
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03/15/2011
SUPPLY LINE

U.S. Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class Chris Carringer passes a case of fresh water from an HH-60H Sea Hawk helicopter to a Japanese citizen during relief efforts in northern Japan, March 15, 2011. Ships and aircraft from the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group are conducting search and rescue operations and resupply missions as directed to support Operation Tomodachi throughout northern Japan in the aftermath of an 8.9-magnitude earthquake and tsunami. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Alexander Tidd

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Dude no one is going to email you. The only question someone will ask you is can you carry my bags to my car. You really are making allot of friends here.


I've gotten several emails already...4 in fact.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Dude no one is going to email you. The only question someone will ask you is can you carry my bags to my car. You really are making allot of friends here.


hahahahaha
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Quoting TampaSpin:


May God help us all on this blog this Hurricane Season!......LOL


Lordy...lol....yes
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


Is my email not fairly self-explanatory?
Dude no one is going to email you. The only question someone will ask you is can you carry my bags to my car. You really are making allot of friends here.
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OK, now I really must go. If I am not there by 5 PM on the dot my boss gets all cranky.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
What the heck are you talking about?


May God help us all on this blog this Hurricane Season!......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I'm not talking to YOU.


I've long thought he was a troll as well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.