Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I am waiting for it to show up on the map here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww /Maps/10/145_35.php
they are about 1 hour delayed sometimes less
Magnitude 5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:27:53 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:27:53 PM at epicenter
Location 37.626°N, 142.320°E
Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 140 km (87 miles) ENE (63°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
144 km (89 miles) ESE (118°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
163 km (102 miles) E (94°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
316 km (196 miles) NE (46°) from TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.9 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles)
Parameters NST=335, Nph=337, Dmin=385.2 km, Rmss=1.38 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Event ID usc00023fq
Nothing, its just part of living in a dangerous world and a dangerous Universe. Sadly, we are reminded just how dangerous the natural world can really be sometimes.
I wasn't aware earthquakes were sentient, and could choose where to strike, and when.
Good Morning everyone! I don't like what might be coming to the West Coast of the ConUs for a big one as well. Its really the only sector of the Ring of Fire that has not had a large quake for some time. Not putting out fear just stating the facts.
They perched their country right at the edge of a subduction zone. That's all.
True. I think another thing holding back relief effors is the simple shock of it. The magnitude is just staggering.
Also, in talking with others, many people dismissed the severity, because "its Japan, they get quakes all the time", and "Japan is a rich country, its not like Haiti or some other third-world country". Its sad, but that is how many people feel. Whenever I hear that kind of drivel, I am quick to remind them about the international support the US got after Katrina, 9/11, and the two most recent major quakes on the west coast. We're a rich country too, but disasters are disasters. People still need help.
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.1 2011/03/15 13:31:46 35.322 138.552 1.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/15 13:27:54 37.626 142.320 1.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 12:51:46 38.925 144.209 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 12:33:11 38.977 142.631 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 11:46:20 40.530 142.689 13.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 11:43:48 37.819 145.118 18.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.9 2011/03/15 11:32:53 62.741 -149.474 65.2 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 11:06:16 37.145 142.375 22.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 10:50:00 35.593 141.889 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.8 2011/03/15 10:31:28 35.798 140.647 42.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.0 2011/03/15 09:49:54 37.348 142.406 15.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 09:46:27 37.777 143.819 34.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 09:16:01 35.601 141.887 30.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.3 2011/03/15 08:48:25 37.500 143.642 35.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.8 2011/03/15 08:36:23 36.654 142.537 35.3 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 08:01:47 40.436 143.240 29.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 07:35:45 37.485 142.324 37.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 07:18:14 36.100 142.295 37.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 07:08:29 38.336 142.211 30.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 07:03:48 36.814 140.383 22.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 06:56:32 36.864 140.363 30.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 06:40:27 37.517 143.732 29.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 06:34:03 57.988 -154.219 60.6 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 05:47:49 18.638 -66.731 73.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 05:40:25 37.944 141.965 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.0 2011/03/15 05:37:47 19.123 -66.485 21.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 05:32:50 -3.587 131.289 33.2 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 05:31:25 36.162 142.232 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 03:25:20 1.781 31.298 10.1 LAKE ALBERT REGION, UGANDA
MAP 5.1 2011/03/15 03:21:35 37.680 143.941 25.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 02:17:15 36.037 141.615 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.7 2011/03/15 01:35:45 39.550 142.698 25.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 00:54:56 32.512 -115.697 5.2 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Link
Exactly. When I point out that the quake moved a section of sea floor THREE HUNDRED MILES LONG up an average of 10 feet, they pause. When I say that the quake moved the ENTIRE island of Honshu 13 feet to the east... they think again about their comments.
I know a 6.8 will bounce you off of a very heavy sofa. It will break your poptarts, too.
AND make you lose your mind.
6.1
Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:31:46 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM at epicenter
Location 35.322°N, 138.552°E
Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile) set by location program
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 40 km (25 miles) NNE (20°) from Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
42 km (26 miles) S (182°) from Kofu, Honshu, Japan
104 km (65 miles) NE (48°) from Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
115 km (72 miles) WSW (251°) from TOKYO, Japan
Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile) set by location program
WOW. That is a VERY shallow quake, especially of that size. No wonder why they listed it as a magnitude 6 on their scale. (as a note, the Christchurch quake of last month was a 6.3 at only 3 miles deep)
I'm also willing to bet there was some significant surface faulting on that quake, too.
We are as prepared for a quake this magnitude as I am prepared to become a neurosurgeon. (in other words, we're doomed, and the patient is gonna die)
I always take care of my poptarts. These aftershocks are really very strong. I wish I knew more about how these swarms are. They seem to be on nearby faults. I just don't remember the Indonesian quake having so many strong ones after. I know they did have many for a long time after the initial one.
That's the one that caused the Tidal wave in Port Alberni BC
1964 Alaska earthquake
That's the worst aftershock they've had, I believe.
I was in college. I think Easter was early that year, if I am not mistaken. How old were you? LOL
that is on a different fault line completely
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 13:37:54 37.678 141.957 21.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.1 2011/03/15 13:31:46 35.322 138.552 1.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.8 2011/03/15 13:27:54 37.626 142.320 1.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 3.0 2011/03/15 13:07:51 18.284 -68.046 105.4 MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAP 4.6 2011/03/15 12:51:46 38.925 144.209 25.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/03/15 12:33:11 38.977 142.631 24.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.2 2011/03/15 11:46:20 40.530 142.689 13.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/15 11:43:48 37.819 145.118 18.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
They're on a thing called the Ring of Fire, and this is where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. No one deserves an earthquake, and the effects, especially the unbelievable effects this one is causing, it's just a matter of where they are.
Keep up with the program, Canes.
MAP 6.8 2011/03/12 01:47:16 37.588 142.682 24.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAP
Imagine if--or rather when--there's a repeat of the New Madrid series of quakes: four separate tremors of between 7.2MM and 8.1MM over a period of seven weeks. Given how easily the shaking propagates through the solid bedrock, they'd be felt as far away as Pennsylvania, Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin. Some estimates put damage from a repeat quake nowadays at around a trillion dollars or so, as several large cities would suffer severe damage (Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock, Indianapolis, Nashville, and so on).
Church bells rang as far away as Boston. It is not just the sold bedrock. Because the underlying ground has less fractures than in the west, the enery is not broken up and is therefore able to travel much further. That is the main reason quakes in the East are felt over a much greater range.
There have been stronger like: Link
but the Loma Prietta was the last to significantly affect a large metro area in the US (also Northridge 6.8). The one I refer to was near Joshua Tree, but still a 7.1.
Did it take? j/k
You quoted the wrong comment LOL (I had to get ya, and I said I believe LOL).
The government of Japan told residents within a 19-mile radius of the nuclear power plant to seal themselves off indoors. The numbers given said that 140,000 people, and I don't know why they didn't tell them to evacuate just after the earthquake.
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