Russian heat wave of 2010 due to natural causes: NOAA study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on March 10, 2011

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The deadliest heat wave in human history--the 2010 Russian heat wave, which killed approximately 56,000 people last summer--was due to a natural atmospheric phenomenon often associated with weather extremes, according to a new NOAA study. The study, titled "Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?" was accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, and used observations and computer climate models to evaluate the possible roles of natural and human-caused climate influences on the severity of the heat wave.


Figure 1. Daily Moscow temperature record from November 1 2009 to October 31 2010. Red and blue shaded areas represent departures from the long-term average (smooth curve) in Moscow. Temperatures significantly above the long-term average scorched Moscow for much of July and August. Image credit: NOAA.

Here's the body of the NOAA Press Release on the study:

"Knowledge of prior regional climate trends and current levels of greenhouse gas concentrations would not have helped us anticipate the 2010 summer heat wave in Russia," said lead author Randall Dole, deputy director of research at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division and a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). "Nor did ocean temperatures or sea ice status in early summer of 2010 suggest what was to come in Russia."

Temperatures in the upper 90s to above 100°F scorched western Russia and surrounding areas from July through mid-August, 2010. In Moscow, the long-term daily average temperatures for July range from 65-67°F; in 2010, daily average July temperatures soared up to 87°. Daily average temperatures include the night. The exceptional heat over such a long duration, combined with poor air quality from wildfires increased deaths by at least 56,000 in Moscow and other parts of western Russia, according to Munich Reinsurance, and led to massive crop failures in the region.

While a contribution to the heat wave from climate change could not be entirely ruled out, if it was present, it played a much smaller role than naturally occurring meteorological processes in explaining this heat wave's intensity.

The researchers cautioned that this extreme event provides a glimpse into the region's future as greenhouse gases continue to increase, and the signal of a warming climate, even at this regional scale, begins to emerge more clearly from natural variability in coming decades. Climate models evaluated for the new study show a rapidly increasing risk of such heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century.

"It appears that parts of Russia are on the cusp of a period in which the risk of extreme heat events will increase rapidly," said co-author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist, also from ESRL.

Dole called the intensity of this heat wave a "climate surprise," expected to occur only very rarely in Russia's current climate. With the possibility of more such events in the future, studying the Russian event better prepares scientists to understand climate phenomena that will affect the U.S. and other parts of the globe.

The team--led by Dole, Hoerling, and Judith Perlwitz from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder--sifted through long-term observations and results from 22 global climate models, looking for trends that might help explain the extraordinarily high temperatures in western Russia during the 2010 summer. They also ran atmospheric models that used observed global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice conditions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2010 to assess whether such factors might have contributed to the heat wave.

The heat wave was due primarily to a natural phenomenon called an atmospheric "blocking pattern," in which a strong high pressure system developed and remained stationary over western Russian, keeping summer storms and cool air from sweeping through the region and leading to the extreme hot and dry conditions. While the blocking pattern associated with the 2010 event was unusually intense and persistent, its major features were similar to atmospheric patterns associated with prior extreme heat wave events in the region since 1880, the researchers found.

They also found that western Russia has not experienced significant climate warming during the summer season over the 130 years from 1880-2009, despite significant warming of globally averaged temperatures during that time. Such a "warming hole" is not unique to that region and is not entirely unexpected, as the Earth is not uniformly warming and experiences distinct geographic areas that may be warmer or cooler than the average trend.

"We know that climate change is not taking place at the same rate everywhere on the globe," said Hoerling. "Western Russia is one of the parts of the world that has not seen a significant increase in summertime temperatures. The U.S. Midwest is another."

Dole compared his team's findings to trying to hear a quiet conversation underneath the roar of a noisy fan: a summertime signal due to climate change over western Russia was drowned out by the much larger climate "noise," or variability, resulting from natural processes.

Authors of the new paper, Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave? are Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Judith Perlwitz2, Jon Eischeid2, Philip Pegion2, Tao Zhang2, Xiao-Wei Quan2, Taiyi Xu2, and Donald Murray2. The team is part of a NOAA effort to better understand the underlying causes of high-impact weather and climate events, with the ultimate goal of better anticipating them.

NOAA Climate Attribution: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/



Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4, 2010 covered an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would have extended from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

Commentary
Climate change has fundamentally altered Earth's atmosphere in significant ways; the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere alters global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, making it difficult to disentangle to what degree an extreme weather event may be natural. The new NOAA attribution study on the Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is a reminder that the atmosphere is capable of generating extreme events on its own, without the aid of climate change. Attribution studies are difficult and take many months or years to complete. When an extreme weather event such as a great flood or deadly heat wave occurs, all we can say at the time is that climate change is loading the dice in favor of such extreme events. At the time of the Russian heat wave, I suspected that human-caused climate change was likely a significant factor, since a study of the world's previous deadliest heat wave, the 2003 European heat wave (Stott et al., 2004), found that human-caused climate change had increased the odds of that event occurring by a factor of four.

An important question to ask is if this type of natural atmospheric blocking event--where the jet stream gets "stuck" in particular contorted shape that contributes to extreme weather events--will increase or decrease in a future warmer climate. I asked climate modeling expert Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change blog, what the models say. His view was, "the physical basis, process, and cause and effect of blocking events are poorly understood in theory and observations and less well understood in models. It is very difficult problem, where the state-of-the-art understanding is low." So, we don't really know what will happen to blocking events in the future climate. Barnes and Hartman (2010) found that the computer models used in the 2007 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report generally showed a decrease in the frequency of blocking events in a future climate. This occurs because the jet stream moves poleward in a future warming climate, and the jet stream is less prone to getting "stuck" in a blocking event when it is closer to the pole. The paper summarizes previous studies on the subject thusly: "Previous studies have found evidence for blocking frequency to decrease with global warming, although they disagree on whether the duration of extreme blocking events will increase or decrease [Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009; Matsueda et al., 2009]." So, the models give us reason to hope that blocking events leading to extreme weather will decrease in the future, though the uncertainty in this prediction is high. However, the climate models used in 2010 Russian heat wave study showed a rapidly increasing risk of heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century. The authors conclude that warming attributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations "is very likely to produce more frequent and extreme heat waves later this century," a central finding of the 2007 IPCC report.

References
Barnes, E.A., and D.L., Hartmann, 2010, "Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and
blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations", GRL 37, L23802, doi:10.1029/2010GL045700, 2010

Stott, P.A. , D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen, 2004: Human Contribution to the European heat wave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017), 610-614

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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WEPA43 PAAQ 110558
TIBWCA

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
958 PM PST THU MAR 10 2011

...THIS TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT IS FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA ONLY...

NO WARNING... NO WATCH AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE STATES AND PROVINCES PREVIOUSLY LISTED.

EVALUATION
EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE ARE KNOWN TO GENERATE TSUNAMIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TO COASTS OUTSIDE THE SOURCE REGION.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS INVESTIGATING
THE EVENT TO DETERMINE THE LEVEL OF DANGER. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE ISSUED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 7.9
TIME - 2046 AKST MAR 10 2011
2146 PST MAR 10 2011
0546 UTC MAR 11 2011
LOCATION - 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
- NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
DEPTH - 6 MILES/10 KM

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PTWC.

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY TO KEEP YOU INFORMED OF
THE PROGRESS OF THIS EVENT. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

$$
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396. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIA

Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 5:16 PM EDT on

Friday 11 March 2011

************************************************* *******************************

SUMMARY:

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.5 has occurred at 4:46 PM EDT on Friday

11 March 2011 near OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.

THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.

For further information check the Bureau's website www.bom.gov.au/tsunami or

call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264).

No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.

************************************************* *******************************

DETAILS:

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.5 has occurred at 4:46 PM EDT on Friday

11 March 2011 near OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN (latitude 37.920N ,

longitude 142.390E ). The JATWC has assessed that there is NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO

THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES from this earthquake.

No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.
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000
WEHW40 PHEB 110557
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110757 -
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.A.0001.110311T0557Z-000000T0000Z/
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
756 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0756 PM HST.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 7.9 MOMENT
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.


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000
WEPA40 PHEB 110555
TSUPAC
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0555Z 11 MAR 2011
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
JAPAN / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / N. MARIANAS
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
GUAM / WAKE IS. / TAIWAN / YAP / PHILIPPINES / MARSHALL IS. /
BELAU / MIDWAY IS. / POHNPEI / CHUUK / KOSRAE / INDONESIA /
PAPUA NEW GUINEA / NAURU / HAWAII
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
REPORTED BY THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.
ORIGIN TIME - 0546Z 11 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 7.9
EVALUATION
IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WARNING IS
BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AN EARTHQUAKE OF THIS
SIZE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN
STRIKE COASTLINES NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN MINUTES AND MORE
DISTANT COASTLINES WITHIN HOURS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER
WILL MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA FROM GAUGES NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE TO
DETERMINE IF A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED AND ESTIMATE THE SEVERITY OF
THE THREAT.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
JAPAN KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0635Z 11 MAR
KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0642Z 11 MAR
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0700Z 11 MAR
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0756Z 11 MAR
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0912Z 11 MAR
RUSSIA URUP_IS 46.1N 150.5E 0714Z 11 MAR
SEVERO_KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0834Z 11 MAR
PETROPAVLOVSK_K 53.2N 159.6E 0836Z 11 MAR
UST_KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0840Z 11 MAR
MEDNNY_IS 54.7N 167.4E 0903Z 11 MAR
MARCUS IS. MARCUS_IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0757Z 11 MAR
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0853Z 11 MAR
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0909Z 11 MAR
WAKE IS. WAKE_IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0925Z 11 MAR
TAIWAN HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0932Z 11 MAR
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0933Z 11 MAR
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0936Z 11 MAR
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 1004Z 11 MAR
YAP YAP_IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0944Z 11 MAR
PHILIPPINES PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0955Z 11 MAR
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 1026Z 11 MAR
DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 1053Z 11 MAR
MARSHALL IS. ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 1013Z 11 MAR
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 1044Z 11 MAR
MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 1124Z 11 MAR
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 1025Z 11 MAR
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY_IS. 28.2N 182.6E 1026Z 11 MAR
POHNPEI POHNPEI_IS. 7.0N 158.2E 1027Z 11 MAR
CHUUK CHUUK_IS. 7.4N 151.8E 1034Z 11 MAR
KOSRAE KOSRAE_IS. 5.5N 163.0E 1043Z 11 MAR
INDONESIA GEME 4.6N 126.8E 1049Z 11 MAR
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 1058Z 11 MAR
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 1110Z 11 MAR
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 1118Z 11 MAR
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 1124Z 11 MAR
JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 1135Z 11 MAR
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 1135Z 11 MAR
PAPUA NEW GUINE MANUS_IS. 2.0S 147.5E 1124Z 11 MAR
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 1124Z 11 MAR
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 1134Z 11 MAR
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 1146Z 11 MAR
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 1154Z 11 MAR
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 1149Z 11 MAR
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.


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393. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tsunami Warning/Advisory

Issued at 14:49 JST 11 Mar 2011

******************Headline******************
Major Tsunami and Tsunami have been issued.
PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU
CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
IBARAKI PREF.
KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
IZU ISLANDS
Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.
Tsunami attentions are in effect at some of the other coasts now.

*******************Text********************
Tsunami Warning

*IWATE PREF.
MIYAGI PREF.
FUKUSHIMA PREF.

CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IBARAKI PREF.
KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
IZU ISLANDS
Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.

Tsunami Advisory

EASTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
WESTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
JAPAN SEA COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
OGASAWARA ISLANDS
SAGAMI BAY AND MIURA PENINSULA
SHIZUOKA PREF.
PACIFIC COAST OF AICHI PREF.
SOUTHERN PART OF MIE PREF.
WAKAYAMA PREF.
TOKUSHIMA PREF.
KOCHI PREF.
MIYAZAKI PREF.
TANEGASHIMA AND YAKUSHIMA AREA
AMAMI ISLANDS AND TOKARA ISLANDS
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Tsunami Warning Issued for areas near epicenter.
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To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 03/10/2011 at 9:58PM PST

This is a Tsunami Information Statement for California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Earthquakes of this size are known to generate tsunamis potentially dangerouse to coasts outside the source region. The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is investigating the event to determine the level of danger. More information will be issued as it becomes available.

At 9:46 PM Pacific Standard Time on March 10, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.9 occurred near the east coast of Honshu, Japan . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.

Messages will be issued hourly by the WCATWC until the event status is upgraded to a warning or advisory, or until the center has determined that the event poses no threat to the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave dangerous to the U.S. and Canadian coasts was generated.)

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Quoting xcool:
A 7.9-magnitude earthquake has struck Japan, the U.S. Geological Survey says. cnn.com


Do they have a location yet. That is a big one. I remember the one I think back in 1995. I don't think it was even that strong and did terrible damage in Kobi.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
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387. xcool
A 7.9-magnitude earthquake has struck Japan, the U.S. Geological Survey says. cnn.com
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Magnitude 7.9 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Link
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Quoting RTLSNK:


My lips are sealed. :)
Time to go horizontal, "Little Spock" wishes you well:


Good to have a laugh before lights out. Thanks. Take care guy.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


Glad they made it back. Got a little rough. You don't miss much there Snake. Some place isn't it. Haven't been there in many, many years. Glad they are maintaining it. Shh. Don't give away too much or they might figure out who I really am. LOL


My lips are sealed. :)
Time to go horizontal, "Little Spock" wishes you well:
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah, right. For a second I forgot how long you've lived. You've certainly got more experience and wisdom than any of us combined!


Boy, how times flies. Seems like yesterday. It is really looking good in the last few frames. Really odd for this time of year. Building a lot of convection.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


What do you mean 113 years. I remember one they had back in 1908.


Ah, right. For a second I forgot how long you've lived. You've certainly got more experience and wisdom than any of us combined!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
If this does develop, it will be the first March storm in 113 years.


What do you mean 113 years. I remember one they had back in 1908.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting RTLSNK:


Very well, thank you.
Kids made it back here from Miami yesterday through the storm.
Said they had a few interesting driving moments but nothing serious.

Noticed you made a comment the other day about our mutual friend Oscar Claude. How interesting is that? We spent some time touring his home in Giverny some years back. Was quite interesting to walk through the gardens and walk over the bridge across his pond. They have taken quite good care of it over the years.

An invest on the 11th of March?
This does not bode well.


Glad they made it back. Got a little rough. You don't miss much there Snake. Some place isn't it. Haven't been there in many, many years. Glad they are maintaining it. Shh. Don't give away too much or they might figure out who I really am. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Tazmanian:
is this going too be come are 1st cat 5 of the season?


oh brother!!! and complaining about poll posts? geez...
Anyways nhc would probably want it to look good for at least a full day at this point before classifying it. it will probably be a short lived entity. imo.
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If this does develop, it will be the first March storm in 113 years.
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Quoting Grothar:



this could be well on its way on being are 1st name storm of the seasone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
And now a message for all the trolls out there, "...It gets better..."
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo! Snake. It was the other guy. We all had sheets, who could tell. How you doing?


Very well, thank you.
Kids made it back here from Miami yesterday through the storm.
Said they had a few interesting driving moments but nothing serious.

Noticed you made a comment the other day about our mutual friend Oscar Claude. How interesting is that? We spent some time touring his home in Giverny some years back. Was quite interesting to walk through the gardens and walk over the bridge across his pond. They have taken quite good care of it over the years.

An invest on the 11th of March?
This does not bode well.
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is this going too be come are 1st cat 5 of the season?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting RTLSNK:


"Et Tu, Brute?"



Yo! Snake. It was the other guy. We all had sheets, who could tell. How you doing?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Some scary weather out there. Some surprising weather out there, (which has us crawling out of the woodwork)lol. Thanks for the wonderful world ( I sometimes forget that.) and the smile. :)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


OK, let's get it out of our systems now.

1. Is that an eye
2. You think it will hit South Florida
3. Will it pump the ridge.
4. It's going to be a fish storm
5. The Carolinas are overdue.
6. Looks big.

It is an odd feature for this time of year, though
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Quoting Grothar:


Beware the Ides!!!!!!


"Et Tu, Brute?"

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
starting march 15
i will start reloading tropical information on my blog page
i guess
funny how time flys


Beware the Ides!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
starting march 15
i will start reloading tropical information on my blog page
i guess
funny how time flys
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81 days till start of 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season
and look 2 invests one in south atlantic one in far north eastern atlantic seems a little on the early side got me thinking of the season ahead
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360. You consider geothermal to be a "green" energy
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G'Nite All, And good nite to you 90L...
Wonder what tomorrow will bring, You never know until it's a reality though.
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FLOOD EVENT


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Quoting jeffs713:
83.

Lets put things into context, and remove a bit of the sensationalism.

First off, wind and solar are not the ONLY ways to generate "green" power. The UK is at the forefront of technology and development of tidal power, which works every day, 24/7. There is also geothermal power and this AMAZING thing called conservation.

Secondly, I did some research, I've attached a link to his actual quotes. Please note that nothing is mentioned about some quasi-government agency deciding who gets electricity and who doesn't. The ONLY place I can find that is on OPINION websites, whom all seem to cite each other as sources.

So, don't believe everything you read on the internet.

Quoting Cochise000:


Context? Did he or did he not state that the era of constant electricity is over in the UK? The link you provided stated exactly that, which is what I said in the beginning. Your link is a pdf of a news article.



Posted this before, Britains power by how it is
generated and the problem of future compliance to
irrational EU directives.




Coal takes the strain...again.
16:44 UK time, Monday, 10 January 2011
Paul Hudson

On BBC Look North on friday I reported that during the recent intense cold weather, it's been our traditional coal and gas fired power stations that have been working flat out to keep our homes and businesses warm.

And for the third winter running, the intense cold has gone hand in hand with periods of little or no wind. This should come as no surprise since prolonged cold is invariably associated with areas of high pressure.

Peak demand also comes during summer heat waves - as we all turn on our air conditioning units - again usually associated with areas of high pressure, with little or no wind.

December 21st 2010 was one of the coldest days on record in Yorkshire. The bar chart below gives an idea of how much electricity was being generated by which type of power facility, when temperatures were at their lowest.


With much of the country experiencing very little wind, both onshore and offshore, wind turbines were largely inactive.

At the moment that is not a problem. Only 5% of electricity is currently generated by wind farms, and so other power stations can step in and ramp up output.

But in only 9 years time, the UK will legally have to generate around 30% of its electricity from renewable sources, of which 25% is expected to come from wind farms alone, as it is seen as a clean, carbon free energy source.

So what will happen then, when the wind doesn't blow?

If a similar meteorological situation occurred in 2020, then almost 25% of power would have to come from sources other than wind.

This means that there would have to be some power stations - using coal or gas, since nuclear power output can't be increased at short notice - that simply exist as a stand-by facility, in case the wind doesn't blow.

And that's a very expensive way of producing electricity.

And what happens if, as seems at least possible, the next 10-15 years sees an increase in the type of disrupted weather patterns that we have experienced recently, because of solar considerations?

Professor Mike Lockwood at Reading University thinks that the UK could indeed experience colder winters on average, compared with the last few decades because of the sun's low activity.

This would lead to a higher frequency of 'blocking' weather patterns leading to less frequent windy conditions than would normally be expected if one looks at climatological averages - suggesting we would have to continue to rely on coal and gas fired power generation well into the future - and possibly more than is currently envisaged.

Link
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Patrap:
Mark Kelly to CDR Endeavor's Last mission


That's right !..I remember that I knew that....lol.
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Quoting Patrap:
...


No update in WUnderground of that other Atlantic Invest East of Brazil...
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Mark Kelly to CDR Endeavor's Last mission
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90L WunderMap® animated Loop
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Just take a poll to see if we should poll or not ;] j/k
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Evening all. Interesting 2 c 90l in March.... Though I don't expect a TWO on this... really outside the TWO parameters, if u look carefully. Quite unusual nonetheless.
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How about we just not poll at all....
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Quoting Patrap:
I never Poll on a Thursday as a rule.


Pat, I see when they are going to launch Endeavor for a final voyage.....nice, but so sad at the same time...
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NRL isn't updating, but the CIMSS imagery seems to indicate that 90L is close to storm status. It would be incredible to see a storm form in March.

Arlene?


Few minutes old...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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