Russian heat wave of 2010 due to natural causes: NOAA study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on March 10, 2011

Share this Blog
3
+

The deadliest heat wave in human history--the 2010 Russian heat wave, which killed approximately 56,000 people last summer--was due to a natural atmospheric phenomenon often associated with weather extremes, according to a new NOAA study. The study, titled "Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?" was accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, and used observations and computer climate models to evaluate the possible roles of natural and human-caused climate influences on the severity of the heat wave.


Figure 1. Daily Moscow temperature record from November 1 2009 to October 31 2010. Red and blue shaded areas represent departures from the long-term average (smooth curve) in Moscow. Temperatures significantly above the long-term average scorched Moscow for much of July and August. Image credit: NOAA.

Here's the body of the NOAA Press Release on the study:

"Knowledge of prior regional climate trends and current levels of greenhouse gas concentrations would not have helped us anticipate the 2010 summer heat wave in Russia," said lead author Randall Dole, deputy director of research at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division and a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). "Nor did ocean temperatures or sea ice status in early summer of 2010 suggest what was to come in Russia."

Temperatures in the upper 90s to above 100°F scorched western Russia and surrounding areas from July through mid-August, 2010. In Moscow, the long-term daily average temperatures for July range from 65-67°F; in 2010, daily average July temperatures soared up to 87°. Daily average temperatures include the night. The exceptional heat over such a long duration, combined with poor air quality from wildfires increased deaths by at least 56,000 in Moscow and other parts of western Russia, according to Munich Reinsurance, and led to massive crop failures in the region.

While a contribution to the heat wave from climate change could not be entirely ruled out, if it was present, it played a much smaller role than naturally occurring meteorological processes in explaining this heat wave's intensity.

The researchers cautioned that this extreme event provides a glimpse into the region's future as greenhouse gases continue to increase, and the signal of a warming climate, even at this regional scale, begins to emerge more clearly from natural variability in coming decades. Climate models evaluated for the new study show a rapidly increasing risk of such heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century.

"It appears that parts of Russia are on the cusp of a period in which the risk of extreme heat events will increase rapidly," said co-author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist, also from ESRL.

Dole called the intensity of this heat wave a "climate surprise," expected to occur only very rarely in Russia's current climate. With the possibility of more such events in the future, studying the Russian event better prepares scientists to understand climate phenomena that will affect the U.S. and other parts of the globe.

The team--led by Dole, Hoerling, and Judith Perlwitz from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder--sifted through long-term observations and results from 22 global climate models, looking for trends that might help explain the extraordinarily high temperatures in western Russia during the 2010 summer. They also ran atmospheric models that used observed global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice conditions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2010 to assess whether such factors might have contributed to the heat wave.

The heat wave was due primarily to a natural phenomenon called an atmospheric "blocking pattern," in which a strong high pressure system developed and remained stationary over western Russian, keeping summer storms and cool air from sweeping through the region and leading to the extreme hot and dry conditions. While the blocking pattern associated with the 2010 event was unusually intense and persistent, its major features were similar to atmospheric patterns associated with prior extreme heat wave events in the region since 1880, the researchers found.

They also found that western Russia has not experienced significant climate warming during the summer season over the 130 years from 1880-2009, despite significant warming of globally averaged temperatures during that time. Such a "warming hole" is not unique to that region and is not entirely unexpected, as the Earth is not uniformly warming and experiences distinct geographic areas that may be warmer or cooler than the average trend.

"We know that climate change is not taking place at the same rate everywhere on the globe," said Hoerling. "Western Russia is one of the parts of the world that has not seen a significant increase in summertime temperatures. The U.S. Midwest is another."

Dole compared his team's findings to trying to hear a quiet conversation underneath the roar of a noisy fan: a summertime signal due to climate change over western Russia was drowned out by the much larger climate "noise," or variability, resulting from natural processes.

Authors of the new paper, Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave? are Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Judith Perlwitz2, Jon Eischeid2, Philip Pegion2, Tao Zhang2, Xiao-Wei Quan2, Taiyi Xu2, and Donald Murray2. The team is part of a NOAA effort to better understand the underlying causes of high-impact weather and climate events, with the ultimate goal of better anticipating them.

NOAA Climate Attribution: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/



Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4, 2010 covered an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would have extended from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

Commentary
Climate change has fundamentally altered Earth's atmosphere in significant ways; the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere alters global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, making it difficult to disentangle to what degree an extreme weather event may be natural. The new NOAA attribution study on the Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is a reminder that the atmosphere is capable of generating extreme events on its own, without the aid of climate change. Attribution studies are difficult and take many months or years to complete. When an extreme weather event such as a great flood or deadly heat wave occurs, all we can say at the time is that climate change is loading the dice in favor of such extreme events. At the time of the Russian heat wave, I suspected that human-caused climate change was likely a significant factor, since a study of the world's previous deadliest heat wave, the 2003 European heat wave (Stott et al., 2004), found that human-caused climate change had increased the odds of that event occurring by a factor of four.

An important question to ask is if this type of natural atmospheric blocking event--where the jet stream gets "stuck" in particular contorted shape that contributes to extreme weather events--will increase or decrease in a future warmer climate. I asked climate modeling expert Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change blog, what the models say. His view was, "the physical basis, process, and cause and effect of blocking events are poorly understood in theory and observations and less well understood in models. It is very difficult problem, where the state-of-the-art understanding is low." So, we don't really know what will happen to blocking events in the future climate. Barnes and Hartman (2010) found that the computer models used in the 2007 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report generally showed a decrease in the frequency of blocking events in a future climate. This occurs because the jet stream moves poleward in a future warming climate, and the jet stream is less prone to getting "stuck" in a blocking event when it is closer to the pole. The paper summarizes previous studies on the subject thusly: "Previous studies have found evidence for blocking frequency to decrease with global warming, although they disagree on whether the duration of extreme blocking events will increase or decrease [Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009; Matsueda et al., 2009]." So, the models give us reason to hope that blocking events leading to extreme weather will decrease in the future, though the uncertainty in this prediction is high. However, the climate models used in 2010 Russian heat wave study showed a rapidly increasing risk of heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century. The authors conclude that warming attributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations "is very likely to produce more frequent and extreme heat waves later this century," a central finding of the 2007 IPCC report.

References
Barnes, E.A., and D.L., Hartmann, 2010, "Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and
blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations", GRL 37, L23802, doi:10.1029/2010GL045700, 2010

Stott, P.A. , D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen, 2004: Human Contribution to the European heat wave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017), 610-614

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 447 - 397

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

i wonder where the planes are in the footage of sundai airport?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoriahurricane:


I'm not seeing this "35 feet" I'm seeing pictures of the aftermath.


i just saw the debris field that is at the lead of that tsunami - it is incredible. i also didn't see the 34ft, but live footage of the 1m wave that just hit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
445. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
443. boyzNme 7:26 AM GMT

those were oil refineries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
an oil refinery fire now being shown on tv from Japan.


We gotta get a TV at work!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:


is anyone watching tampa's link? what are those ball type containers / buildings that are on fire? is that at the nuclear plant?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
442. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
an oil refinery fire now being shown on tv from Japan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:


I'm not seeing this "35 feet" I'm seeing pictures of the aftermath.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


iam afraid so
loss of life with this one for sure



anyone still on? that is quite amazing for the magnitude to jump a whole digit!

on another note, does that blue square in arkanasas mean that they are still having quakes in that area? i am guessing that it is a current map.

i was in a 5 quake one time in tokyo. being from cali i knew what it was, but it wasn't any fun being on the 54th floor in one!!

i do hope there is limited loss of life and wish all there the best thoughts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Another live link.... Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HOLY CRAP.....IT'S AT LEAST 35 FEET!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Can someone link me to the video of the tsunami?


?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
436. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
It's 4:20 PM JST right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Nhk Japan has the tsunami live......I never saw a tsunami live before!


The Hell U say!! What is it Middle of the evening over there??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another live link.... Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
433. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Major Tsunami warnings for most of eastern coast of Japan and Iwo Jima island
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can someone link me to the video of the tsunami?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOD BLESS JAPAN! Watching the coverage on CNN has left me stunned. Definitely a historic earthquake and one that has devastated Japan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On a lighter note....The blog actually feels like one of those Sept/OCT nights when a few ADULTS are sitting around waitin on the next update. Nice to see it can happen out of H season!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nhk Japan has the tsunami live......I never saw a tsunami live before!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
428. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

New Warnings for Japan


Tsunami Warning/Advisory

Issued at 16:08 JST 11 Mar 2011

******************Headline******************
Major Tsunami and Tsunami have been issued.
JAPAN SEA COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
OGASAWARA ISLANDS
SAGAMI BAY AND MIURA PENINSULA
SHIZUOKA PREF.
WAKAYAMA PREF.
TOKUSHIMA PREF.
SETONAIKAI COAST OF OITA PREF.
WESTERN PART OF KAGOSHIMA PREF.
Tsunami attentions are in effect at some of the other coasts now.

*******************Text********************
Tsunami Advisory

AKITA PREF.
*YAMAGATA PREF.
NIIGATA PREF.,EXCEPT SADOGASHIMA ISLAND
SADOGASHIMA ISLAND
TOYAMA PREF.
NOTO AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
HIROSHIMA PREF.
SETONAIKAI COAST OF YAMAGUCHI PREF.

Changed;
Tsunami Advisory --> Tsunami Warning
Tsunami>
SETONAIKAI COAST OF OITA PREF.
WESTERN PART OF KAGOSHIMA PREF.
Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.

Tsunami Warning --> Tsunami Warning
Major Tsunami>
JAPAN SEA COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
OGASAWARA ISLANDS
SAGAMI BAY AND MIURA PENINSULA
SHIZUOKA PREF.
WAKAYAMA PREF.
TOKUSHIMA PREF.

At the following coasts (* marks) tsunamis are
expected to arrive right away.
YAMAGATA PREF.

*******Tsunami forecast now in effect********

IWATE PREF.
MIYAGI PREF.
FUKUSHIMA PREF.
CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IBARAKI PREF.
KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
IZU ISLANDS
EASTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
WESTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
JAPAN SEA COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
OGASAWARA ISLANDS
SAGAMI BAY AND MIURA PENINSULA
SHIZUOKA PREF.
WAKAYAMA PREF.
TOKUSHIMA PREF.

PACIFIC COAST OF AICHI PREF.
SOUTHERN PART OF MIE PREF.
KOCHI PREF.
MIYAZAKI PREF.
TANEGASHIMA AND YAKUSHIMA AREA
AMAMI ISLANDS AND TOKARA ISLANDS
SOUTHERN PART OF JAPAN SEA COAST OF HOKKAIDO
MUTSU BAY
TOKYO BAY
ISE BAY AND MIKAWA BAY
SOUTHERN PART OF AWAJI ISLAND
BUNGO STRAIT COAST OF EHIME PREF.
SETONAIKAI COAST OF OITA PREF.
BUNGO STRAIT COAST OF OITA PREF.
EASTERN PART OF KAGOSHIMA PREF.
WESTERN PART OF KAGOSHIMA PREF.
OKINAWA ISLANDS
DAITOJIMA AREA
MIYAKOJIMA AND YAEYAMA AREA

OKHOTSK SEA COAST OF HOKKAIDO
OSAKA PREF.
SETONAIKAI COAST OF HYOGO PREF.
OKAYAMA PREF.
KAGAWA PREF.
SETONAIKAI COAST OF EHIME PREF.
ARIAKE SEA AND YATSUSHIRO SEA
WESTERN PART OF NAGASAKI PREF.
AMAKUSA NADA COAST OF KUMAMOTO PREF.
AKITA PREF.
YAMAGATA PREF.
NIIGATA PREF.,EXCEPT SADOGASHIMA ISLAND
SADOGASHIMA ISLAND
TOYAMA PREF.
NOTO AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
HIROSHIMA PREF.
SETONAIKAI COAST OF YAMAGUCHI PREF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow the wave going into the coast now is really big...amazing!!!! :( cnn
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My local news channel is showing footage of the tsunamis coming in, pretty intense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
425. xcool
brb
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
424. xcool
wow 8.9 wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
423. skook
Wow... the video out of Japan is unreal. I couldn't believe my eyes when i saw the tsunami on fire.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
may god have mercy on there souls


amen!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
421. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
12:06 PM WST March 11 2011
=====================================

The monsoon trough lies over the Kimberley, connecting to a weak tropical low [22U] over central parts of the Northern Territory. The low is expected to drift westwards over the Kimberley during the weekend, but remain overland and weak.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very Low

Another tropical low [23U] near 8S 94E is expected to remain slow moving for the next couple of days. It is expected to briefly enter the Western Region early next week and may develop further before moving west of 90E on Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
may god have mercy on there souls
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any quake close to the number 9 is going to be epic!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
crazy video on headline news CNN. Buildings, cars, and other objects sweep away
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's bad there, already videos on YouTube showing cars under water and buildings on fire.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WEHW40 PHEB 110645
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110845 -
/O.CON.PHEB.TS.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
844 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH SUPPLEMENT
A TSUNAMI WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.2 NORTH 142.5 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 8.8 MOMENT
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
DART 21418 38.7N 148.7E 0619Z 1.08M / 3.5FT 06MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Initial earthquake now upgraded to 8.9 magnitude.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WEPA40 PHEB 110643
TSUPAC
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0643Z 11 MAR 2011
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
JAPAN / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / N. MARIANAS / GUAM / WAKE IS. /
TAIWAN
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
YAP / PHILIPPINES / MARSHALL IS. / BELAU / MIDWAY IS. /
POHNPEI / CHUUK / KOSRAE / INDONESIA / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
NAURU / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. / KIRIBATI / HAWAII
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0546Z 11 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.2 NORTH 142.5 EAST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 8.8
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
DART 21418 38.7N 148.7E 0619Z 1.08M / 3.5FT 06MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
JAPAN KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0635Z 11 MAR
KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0642Z 11 MAR
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0700Z 11 MAR
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0756Z 11 MAR
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0912Z 11 MAR
RUSSIA URUP_IS 46.1N 150.5E 0714Z 11 MAR
SEVERO_KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0834Z 11 MAR
PETROPAVLOVSK_K 53.2N 159.6E 0836Z 11 MAR
UST_KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0840Z 11 MAR
MEDNNY_IS 54.7N 167.4E 0903Z 11 MAR
MARCUS IS. MARCUS_IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0757Z 11 MAR
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0853Z 11 MAR
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0909Z 11 MAR
WAKE IS. WAKE_IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0925Z 11 MAR
TAIWAN HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0932Z 11 MAR
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0933Z 11 MAR
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0936Z 11 MAR
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 1004Z 11 MAR
YAP YAP_IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0944Z 11 MAR
PHILIPPINES PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0955Z 11 MAR
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 1026Z 11 MAR
DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 1053Z 11 MAR
MARSHALL IS. ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 1013Z 11 MAR
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 1044Z 11 MAR
MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 1124Z 11 MAR
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 1025Z 11 MAR
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY_IS. 28.2N 182.6E 1026Z 11 MAR
POHNPEI POHNPEI_IS. 7.0N 158.2E 1027Z 11 MAR
CHUUK CHUUK_IS. 7.4N 151.8E 1034Z 11 MAR
KOSRAE KOSRAE_IS. 5.5N 163.0E 1043Z 11 MAR
INDONESIA GEME 4.6N 126.8E 1049Z 11 MAR
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 1058Z 11 MAR
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 1110Z 11 MAR
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 1118Z 11 MAR
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 1124Z 11 MAR
JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 1135Z 11 MAR
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 1135Z 11 MAR
PAPUA NEW GUINE MANUS_IS. 2.0S 147.5E 1124Z 11 MAR
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 1124Z 11 MAR
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 1134Z 11 MAR
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 1146Z 11 MAR
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 1154Z 11 MAR
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 1205Z 11 MAR
AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 1211Z 11 MAR
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 1215Z 11 MAR
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 1149Z 11 MAR
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON_IS. 16.7N 190.5E 1202Z 11 MAR
SOLOMON IS. PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 1221Z 11 MAR
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 1222Z 11 MAR
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 1239Z 11 MAR
KIRIBATI TARAWA_IS. 1.5N 173.0E 1228Z 11 MAR
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:
USGS business is good 8.8, two 6.4's, 6.8 and a 7.1 in forty minutes??

KOG am I reading that right??


iam afraid so
loss of life with this one for sure

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
USGS business is good 8.8, two 6.4's, 6.8 and a 7.1 in forty minutes??

KOG am I reading that right??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
411. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


90L near Portugal and Morocco (lower left "T" identified low)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
another 7.1

Update time = Fri Mar 11 6:47:02 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 7.1 2011/03/11 06:25:51 38.074 144.559 26.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.8 2011/03/11 06:15:46 36.126 140.234 30.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:07:22 36.401 141.862 35.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:06:11 39.025 142.316 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 8.8 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.322 142.369 24.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
408. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
at Occurred at Region Name Magnitude Maximum Seismic Intensity
(JMA Seismic Intensity)
14:53 JST 11 Mar 2011 14:46 JST 11 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M7.9 7
03:17 JST 11 Mar 2011 03:14 JST 11 Mar 2011 Miyagi-ken Hokubu M3.5 3
06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011 06:24 JST 10 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M6.6 4
03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011 03:45 JST 10 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M6.1 3
13:42 JST 09 Mar 2011 13:37 JST 09 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M6.1 3
12:24 JST 09 Mar 2011 12:19 JST 09 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M5.3 --
12:17 JST 09 Mar 2011 12:08 JST 09 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M5.9 --
12:11 JST 09 Mar 2011 12:02 JST 09 Mar 2011 Sanriku Oki M5.2 --

quite a few earthquakes reported in the last 3 days for near Japan, O_O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8.8 now. That's ridiculous. Heard tsunami reached 20ft in some areas on my local news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #2 issued 03/8/2011 at 8:02PM PST

new sea level data

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Sea level observations indicate a tsunami was generated which may have been destructive along coasts in the source region. A damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts although some of these areas may experience non-damaging sea level changes.

Measurements or reports of tsunami activity:


Location Lat. Lon. Time Amplitude ------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
Ofunato Japan 39.0N 141.8E 0311UTC 01.8FT/00.54M

Time - Time of measurement.
Amp. - Tsunami amplitudes are measured relative to normal sea level. It is NOT crest-to-trough wave height. Values are given in both meters (M) and feet (FT).

At 6:45 PM Pacific Standard Time on March 8, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.2 occurred off the east coast of Honshu, Japan . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.

This will be the final statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buildings on fire near Tokyo. A 50cm tsunami swept cars into a bay near Tokyo suburb. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Update time = Fri Mar 11 6:39:29 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:07:22 36.401 141.862 35.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 6.4 2011/03/11 06:06:11 39.025 142.316 25.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 8.8 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.322 142.369 24.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN



the last 20 mins or so been 8.8 and 2 6.4's
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Magnitude 8.8 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Apparently the USGS upgraded it from the 7.9?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
A 7.9-magnitude earthquake has struck Japan, the U.S. Geological Survey says. cnn.com


Wow Two big quakes in what...three days?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmmmmmm... tis Second week of March.
Why am I here?
and are Grothar's lights really out?
and will this be a truly

LONG March?

CRS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Magnitude 8.8 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011 March 11 05:46:23 UTC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
398. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad
Phone: 040 2389 5011; Fax: 040 2389 5012

EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION BULLETIN

TWC BULLETIN NUMBER: 01 Date of issue: 09-Mar-2011
Time of issue: 08:22:04

Earthquake Information

Earthquake Origin Time: 09-Mar-2011 08:15:20 (IST) 09-Mar-2011 02:45:20 (UTC)
Magnitude:7.2 Mw(mB) (preferred) Category (MODERATE / GREAT): Great
Network Magnitude(s): 7.2 (MLv), 7.2 (Mwp), 7.5 (Mw(Mwp)), 7.2 (mB), 7.2 (Mw(mB))
Location: Latitude: 38.52 N Longitude: 142.87 E
Focal Depth: 10 km
Land/Ocean : Ocean part Water Level Depth (if Ocean): 1541 m
Region: Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan

(Of course no threat to Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, or Arabian Sea..)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEPA43 PAAQ 110558
TIBWCA

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
958 PM PST THU MAR 10 2011

...THIS TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT IS FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA ONLY...

NO WARNING... NO WATCH AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE STATES AND PROVINCES PREVIOUSLY LISTED.

EVALUATION
EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE ARE KNOWN TO GENERATE TSUNAMIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TO COASTS OUTSIDE THE SOURCE REGION.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS INVESTIGATING
THE EVENT TO DETERMINE THE LEVEL OF DANGER. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE ISSUED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 7.9
TIME - 2046 AKST MAR 10 2011
2146 PST MAR 10 2011
0546 UTC MAR 11 2011
LOCATION - 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
- NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
DEPTH - 6 MILES/10 KM

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PTWC.

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY TO KEEP YOU INFORMED OF
THE PROGRESS OF THIS EVENT. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 447 - 397

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
75 °F
Scattered Clouds