Russian heat wave of 2010 due to natural causes: NOAA study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on March 10, 2011

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The deadliest heat wave in human history--the 2010 Russian heat wave, which killed approximately 56,000 people last summer--was due to a natural atmospheric phenomenon often associated with weather extremes, according to a new NOAA study. The study, titled "Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?" was accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, and used observations and computer climate models to evaluate the possible roles of natural and human-caused climate influences on the severity of the heat wave.


Figure 1. Daily Moscow temperature record from November 1 2009 to October 31 2010. Red and blue shaded areas represent departures from the long-term average (smooth curve) in Moscow. Temperatures significantly above the long-term average scorched Moscow for much of July and August. Image credit: NOAA.

Here's the body of the NOAA Press Release on the study:

"Knowledge of prior regional climate trends and current levels of greenhouse gas concentrations would not have helped us anticipate the 2010 summer heat wave in Russia," said lead author Randall Dole, deputy director of research at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division and a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). "Nor did ocean temperatures or sea ice status in early summer of 2010 suggest what was to come in Russia."

Temperatures in the upper 90s to above 100°F scorched western Russia and surrounding areas from July through mid-August, 2010. In Moscow, the long-term daily average temperatures for July range from 65-67°F; in 2010, daily average July temperatures soared up to 87°. Daily average temperatures include the night. The exceptional heat over such a long duration, combined with poor air quality from wildfires increased deaths by at least 56,000 in Moscow and other parts of western Russia, according to Munich Reinsurance, and led to massive crop failures in the region.

While a contribution to the heat wave from climate change could not be entirely ruled out, if it was present, it played a much smaller role than naturally occurring meteorological processes in explaining this heat wave's intensity.

The researchers cautioned that this extreme event provides a glimpse into the region's future as greenhouse gases continue to increase, and the signal of a warming climate, even at this regional scale, begins to emerge more clearly from natural variability in coming decades. Climate models evaluated for the new study show a rapidly increasing risk of such heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century.

"It appears that parts of Russia are on the cusp of a period in which the risk of extreme heat events will increase rapidly," said co-author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist, also from ESRL.

Dole called the intensity of this heat wave a "climate surprise," expected to occur only very rarely in Russia's current climate. With the possibility of more such events in the future, studying the Russian event better prepares scientists to understand climate phenomena that will affect the U.S. and other parts of the globe.

The team--led by Dole, Hoerling, and Judith Perlwitz from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder--sifted through long-term observations and results from 22 global climate models, looking for trends that might help explain the extraordinarily high temperatures in western Russia during the 2010 summer. They also ran atmospheric models that used observed global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice conditions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2010 to assess whether such factors might have contributed to the heat wave.

The heat wave was due primarily to a natural phenomenon called an atmospheric "blocking pattern," in which a strong high pressure system developed and remained stationary over western Russian, keeping summer storms and cool air from sweeping through the region and leading to the extreme hot and dry conditions. While the blocking pattern associated with the 2010 event was unusually intense and persistent, its major features were similar to atmospheric patterns associated with prior extreme heat wave events in the region since 1880, the researchers found.

They also found that western Russia has not experienced significant climate warming during the summer season over the 130 years from 1880-2009, despite significant warming of globally averaged temperatures during that time. Such a "warming hole" is not unique to that region and is not entirely unexpected, as the Earth is not uniformly warming and experiences distinct geographic areas that may be warmer or cooler than the average trend.

"We know that climate change is not taking place at the same rate everywhere on the globe," said Hoerling. "Western Russia is one of the parts of the world that has not seen a significant increase in summertime temperatures. The U.S. Midwest is another."

Dole compared his team's findings to trying to hear a quiet conversation underneath the roar of a noisy fan: a summertime signal due to climate change over western Russia was drowned out by the much larger climate "noise," or variability, resulting from natural processes.

Authors of the new paper, Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave? are Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Judith Perlwitz2, Jon Eischeid2, Philip Pegion2, Tao Zhang2, Xiao-Wei Quan2, Taiyi Xu2, and Donald Murray2. The team is part of a NOAA effort to better understand the underlying causes of high-impact weather and climate events, with the ultimate goal of better anticipating them.

NOAA Climate Attribution: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/



Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4, 2010 covered an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would have extended from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

Commentary
Climate change has fundamentally altered Earth's atmosphere in significant ways; the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere alters global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, making it difficult to disentangle to what degree an extreme weather event may be natural. The new NOAA attribution study on the Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is a reminder that the atmosphere is capable of generating extreme events on its own, without the aid of climate change. Attribution studies are difficult and take many months or years to complete. When an extreme weather event such as a great flood or deadly heat wave occurs, all we can say at the time is that climate change is loading the dice in favor of such extreme events. At the time of the Russian heat wave, I suspected that human-caused climate change was likely a significant factor, since a study of the world's previous deadliest heat wave, the 2003 European heat wave (Stott et al., 2004), found that human-caused climate change had increased the odds of that event occurring by a factor of four.

An important question to ask is if this type of natural atmospheric blocking event--where the jet stream gets "stuck" in particular contorted shape that contributes to extreme weather events--will increase or decrease in a future warmer climate. I asked climate modeling expert Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change blog, what the models say. His view was, "the physical basis, process, and cause and effect of blocking events are poorly understood in theory and observations and less well understood in models. It is very difficult problem, where the state-of-the-art understanding is low." So, we don't really know what will happen to blocking events in the future climate. Barnes and Hartman (2010) found that the computer models used in the 2007 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report generally showed a decrease in the frequency of blocking events in a future climate. This occurs because the jet stream moves poleward in a future warming climate, and the jet stream is less prone to getting "stuck" in a blocking event when it is closer to the pole. The paper summarizes previous studies on the subject thusly: "Previous studies have found evidence for blocking frequency to decrease with global warming, although they disagree on whether the duration of extreme blocking events will increase or decrease [Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009; Matsueda et al., 2009]." So, the models give us reason to hope that blocking events leading to extreme weather will decrease in the future, though the uncertainty in this prediction is high. However, the climate models used in 2010 Russian heat wave study showed a rapidly increasing risk of heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century. The authors conclude that warming attributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations "is very likely to produce more frequent and extreme heat waves later this century," a central finding of the 2007 IPCC report.

References
Barnes, E.A., and D.L., Hartmann, 2010, "Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and
blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations", GRL 37, L23802, doi:10.1029/2010GL045700, 2010

Stott, P.A. , D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen, 2004: Human Contribution to the European heat wave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017), 610-614

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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the cloud structure almost looks tropical however it is more of a sub tropical system since seas surface temps are not that warm to support a warm core imo however as it moves nearer to the coast it might just squeeze a tropical status lol but its march anything cud happen
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The only saving grace is that Japan is quite possibly the most earthquake prepared nation in the world. That will possibly make the difference between a huge tragedy and a smaller one.

Of course the economic and social aspects of huge devastation like this are immense.
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495. P451
Uhmmm...it's March, but there it is.




Tropical Invest 90L


Do we have a Tropical Storm?

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Wow. Amazing to read / see reports from Japan this morning. Pple in Christchurch [NZ] are still digging out from their devastating quake, with death toll exceeding 200 in a population of under 1/2 million. The area in Japan where the tsunami struck was much more populated..... lots of prayers going up.
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Morning all. Looks like the line of storms associated with the front fizzled as it moved out into the ATL.... we got only a few relatively light showers a couple hours ago.



However, the temps are nicely cool, and are supposed to remain that way as the winds pick up behind the front.

Going to read back now to see the latest on our two March invests....
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The official death toll is 32, but it will doubtlessly--and very sadly--climb far higher; the helicopter video of the tsunami rolling across land is terrifying, as roads full of cars trying to flee are overwhelmed, areas packed with homes are inundated, and industrial parks are overwhelmed...

As stated earlier, this is the 7th largest quake ever recorded, but it's by far the largest that's ever happened near such a densely populated area.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
I hope Japan gave out warnings
90L still looks pretty tropical, I kinda think it might get a name
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Al Jazeera is all over this:

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

re: Channel Islands ... tsunamis are very good at wrapping around islands due to their long wave length. The Channel Islands should not be expected to protect much in southern California, but So Cal is in a watch, not a warning, area.

Correct; there's a low-level tsunami advisory south of Point Conception. Some of the reported wave heights, while huge in and around the earthquake area, haven't been too high at all elsewhere. But it remains to be seen; depending on local geography and tidal conditions, wave heights can be amplified in certain areas far away from the epicenter.

(And, yes, AJ is great; I've been signing every petition possible to get my local cable provider to carry it. Look online; there are several large-scale efforts.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Al Jazeera is all over this:

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

re: Channel Islands ... tsunamis are very good at wrapping around islands due to their long wave length. The Channel Islands should not be expected to protect much in southern California, but So Cal is in a watch, not a warning, area.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
One of Japan's nuke plants is unable to provide cooling water to one of the reactor units, so Japan has declared its first nuclear emergency ever. There's no leakage yet; here's hoping it stays that way...


Yes, let's hope for that.
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One of Japan's nuke plants is unable to provide cooling water to one of its reactor units, so Japan has declared its first nuclear emergency ever. There's no leakage yet; here's hoping it stays that way...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
The 8.9 MM quake is the largest to hit Japan in recorded history--and recorded history in Japan goes back several thousand years. It's also the fifth largest worldwide since 1900, and the 7th largest since records began. (By way of comparison, the quake that caused the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was 9.1).

The tsunami warning area is huge, encompassing Japan, Russia, Marcus Is., N. Marianas, Guam, Wake Is., Taiwan, Yap, Philippines, Marshall Is., Belau, Midway Is., Pohnpei, Chuuk, Kosrae, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Nauru, Johnston Is., Solomon Is., Kiribati, Howland-baker, Hawaii, Tuvalu, Palmyra Is., Vanuatu, Tokelau, Jarvis Is., Wallis-futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue, Fiji, New Caledonia, Tonga, Mexico, Kermadec is, Fr. Polynesia, Pitcairn, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Antarctica, Panama, Honduras, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru.

Wow.

The video and images out of Japan are incredible. Such as this video grab from an aerial shot of the tsunami moving across a port. Note the buildings at the wave's vanguard.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Tsunami Advisory

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 6
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
230 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2011

THIS MESSAGE KEEPS THE WARNING ADVISORY REGIONS FIXED
AND ADDS NEW OBSERVATIONS. A LINK TO FORECAST AMPLITUDES IS
ALSO GIVEN.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM POINT CONCEPCION
CALIFORNIA TO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER...

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF ALASKA FROM AMCHITKA PASS ALASKA/125 MILES W OF
ADAK/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
POINT CONCEPCION CALIFORNIA...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF WASHINGTON - BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE
OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER TO AMCHITKA PASS ALASKA/125 MILES
W OF ADAK/...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGE
TO THE WARNING AND/OR ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE.
PERSONS IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- PERSONS IN TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MOVE INLAND TO
HIGHER GROUND.

- PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY

LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
TOSASHIMIZU JAPAN 32.8N 132.9E 0747UTC 00.9FT/00.27M
TOKAI JAPAN 33.8N 137.6E 0645UTC 00.8FT/00.25M
OFUNATO JAPAN 39.0N 141.8E 0605UTC 10.8FT/03.29M
HANASAKI JAPAN 43.3N 145.6E 0643UTC 09.3FT/02.82M
BOSO JAPAN 34.8N 140.8E 0609UTC 02.6FT/00.78M
MINAMITORISHIMA JAPAN 24.3N 154.0E 0747UTC 01.5FT/00.45M
NAHA JAPAN 26.2N 127.7E 0902UTC 00.7FT/00.20M
SAIPAN USA 15.2N 145.7E 0901UTC 02.6FT/00.79M
WAKE IS. USA 19.3N 166.6E 0918UTC 01.6FT/00.50M
SHEMYA ALASKA 52.7N 174.1E 1028UTC 01.3FT/00.43M

TIME - TIME OF MEASUREMENT
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).

TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER
INITIAL ARRIVAL ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST.
FORECAST TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WCATWC WEB SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 8.9
TIME - 2046 AKST MAR 10 2011
2146 PST MAR 10 2011
0546 UTC MAR 11 2011
LOCATION - 38.3 NORTH 142.4 EAST
- NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
DEPTH - 12 MILES/20 KM

TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. WARNINGS INDICATE THAT
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL
CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE
WATER IS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS... BOATS... AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PTWC.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 60 MINUTES OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WAZ001-021-510-514>517-BCZ130-230-250-260-280-160 -142-141-
150-121-122-220-210-922-912-921-911-110-AKZ026>02 9-023-024-
019>022-025-017-131-135-125-121-171-181-185-187-1 11200-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE OREGON-WASHINGTON
BORDER TO AMCHITKA PASS ALASKA/125 MILES W OF ADAK/
230 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF WASHINGTON - BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE
OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER TO AMCHITKA PASS ALASKA/125 MILES
W OF ADAK/...

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

ADAK-AK 0110 AKST MAR 11 VALDEZ-AK 0435 AKST MAR 11
DUTCH HARBOR-AK 0220 AKST MAR 11 LANGARA-BC 0535 PST MAR 11
SAND PT.-AK 0257 AKST MAR 11 CORDOVA-AK 0445 AKST MAR 11
COLD BAY-AK 0329 AKST MAR 11 HOMER-AK 0508 AKST MAR 11
KODIAK-AK 0351 AKST MAR 11 CRAIG-AK 0526 AKST MAR 11
SEWARD-AK 0416 AKST MAR 11 TOFINO-BC 0658 PST MAR 11
ELFIN COVE-AK 0418 AKST MAR 11 NEAH BAY-WA 0710 PST MAR 11
YAKUTAT-AK 0425 AKST MAR 11 WESTPORT-WA 0725 PST MAR 11
SITKA-AK 0425 AKST MAR 11

FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

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From the latest tsunami advisory:

The Tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of California and Oregon from Point Concepcion, California to the Oregon-Washington border.

The Tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of Alaska from Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak) to Attu, Alaska.

The Tsunami Advisory continues in effect for the coastal areas of California from the California-Mexico border to Point Concepcion, California.

The Tsunami Advisory continues in effect for the coastal areas of Washington, British Columbia and Alaska from the Oregon-Washington border to Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak).

Link
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This doesn't look good for Japan. I'm afraid the tsunami will be affecting other nations too.

BBC has live coverage (sorry if this has already been posted).

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And this one is a link to JMA - has weather, earthquakes etc with multiple side links.

Link
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Death toll in Japan expected to rise.
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Keep this link and use refresh to see new aftershocks - last one measured 6.2, no shake map as yet on that one.
Link
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Shake map for 8.9 earthquake
Link
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Live video and news from ABC ( Australia )
Link
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Look at the size of the tsunami!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VopzGcBkfnE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJCyWbUEdCM


Wish they allowed youtube at work!
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Look at the size of the tsunami!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VopzGcBkfnE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJCyWbUEdCM
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Time for some ZZZZ's.
Hoping for the best that can be for Japan.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1080
They have some huge refinery tanks on fire, sure hope
they can keep those from blowing.



Link
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1080
tampa's link to al jazeera is excellent coverage, no commercials.

i just found out that al jazeera is actually all ex bbc people.
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Yeah so far no warnings of tsunami for the West Coast of North America. A little concerned here (Victoria BC Canada, not too sure if we are quite high enough above sea level where I live. Off to bed for now here's hoping I don't wake up to being on a small island in the morning. Keep safe everyone.
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Sorry, it worked for me. Try a copy & paste of this:

http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/6810.htm
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Google.


LMFAO
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Quoting MjOregon:
I never post here so don't know how to do the linky thing. Let me try again:

NHK World

It doesn't seem to work if you're using rich text.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Google.


I did and couldn't find anything.
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Wow, since my country is quite close to japan, the tsunami may strike our country.
God Bless Japan.
Pray for the victims of the earthquake.
Edit: There's a lot of VERY STRONG earthquakes happening, i think the plates has become active these days.
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I never post here so don't know how to do the linky thing. Let me try again:

NHK World
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Link

It is swamped.

503 Service not available
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1080
Quoting victoriahurricane:


Link please?
Google.
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NHK World live broadcast from Tokyo is here:

http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/6810.htm
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Nuke plant shutdown auto, no leaks detected, Japan's PM
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1080
Quoting iceagecoming:


CNBC Asia has live footage.

Keep, I hope they are right about no alerts for Cali.
I am less than a half mile from the beach in Goleta.
I am on the second floor but I'd rather boot it up the slope if they post a warning. No beach walking for me.


Link please?
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Robert Cessaro is on TWC explaining that the beam is going to focus on south america more than western US.
Also Channel Islands provide a block according to local News. Thanks.
Meter and a half wave in Hawaii +/- according above
expert.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1080
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
Quoting xcool:
A sign of very bad things to come :((((


Could be!!
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TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110931 -
/O.CAN.PHEB.TS.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.W.0001.110311T0731Z-000000T0000Z/

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
931 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0931 PM HST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.2 NORTH 142.5 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 8.8 MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
DART 21413 30.5N 152.1E 0659Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 32MIN
HANASAKI HOKKAIDO J 43.3N 145.6E 0657Z 2.79M / 9.2FT 76MIN
DART 21401 42.6N 152.6E 0643Z 0.67M / 2.2FT 40MIN
DART 21418 38.7N 148.7E 0619Z 1.08M / 3.5FT 06MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
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455. xcool
brb
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The following list gives estimated times of arrival for
locations along the North American Pacific coast from a
tsunami generated at the given source location. The
list is ordered by arrival time starting with the earliest.
Since tsunami speed is directly related to
water depth, tsunami ETAs can be computed independent of
tsunami amplitude. THE LISTING OF A TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME
BELOW DOES NOT INDICATE A WAVE IS IMMINENT. The listed arrival
time is the initial wave arrival. Tsunamis can be dangerous
for many hours after arrival, and the initial wave is not
necessarily the largest.

Source:
Lat: 38.0N
Lng: 142.9E
Mag: 7.9
O-time: 0546UTC
Date: MAR 11

Estimated times of initial tsunami arrival:

DART 21415 2348 AKST MAR 10 0848 UTC MAR 11
Shemya, Alaska 0020 AKST MAR 11 0920 UTC MAR 11
Attu, Alaska 0020 AKST MAR 11 0920 UTC MAR 11
DART 21414 0020 AKST MAR 11 0920 UTC MAR 11
Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak) 0034 AKST MAR 11 0934 UTC MAR 11
Amchitka, Alaska 0037 AKST MAR 11 0937 UTC MAR 11
DART 46413 0059 AKST MAR 11 0959 UTC MAR 11
Atka, Alaska 0116 AKST MAR 11 1016 UTC MAR 11
Adak, Alaska 0118 AKST MAR 11 1018 UTC MAR 11
DART 46408 0119 AKST MAR 11 1019 UTC MAR 11
DART 46402 0145 AKST MAR 11 1045 UTC MAR 11
Nikolski, Alaska 0159 AKST MAR 11 1059 UTC MAR 11
DART 46403 0219 AKST MAR 11 1119 UTC MAR 11
Akutan, Alaska 0224 AKST MAR 11 1124 UTC MAR 11
Dutch Harbor, Alaska 0228 AKST MAR 11 1128 UTC MAR 11
Unimak Pass, Alaska (80 miles NE of Dutch Harbo 0236 AKST MAR 11 1136 UTC MAR 11
St. Paul, Alaska 0239 AKST MAR 11 1139 UTC MAR 11
DART 46409 0300 AKST MAR 11 1200 UTC MAR 11
King Cove, Alaska 0303 AKST MAR 11 1203 UTC MAR 11
Sand Point, Alaska 0304 AKST MAR 11 1204 UTC MAR 11
Perryville, Alaska 0326 AKST MAR 11 1226 UTC MAR 11
DART 46410 0326 AKST MAR 11 1226 UTC MAR 11
Cold Bay, Alaska 0337 AKST MAR 11 1237 UTC MAR 11
Chignik Bay, Alaska 0357 AKST MAR 11 1257 UTC MAR 11
Kodiak, Alaska 0358 AKST MAR 11 1258 UTC MAR 11
Cape Suckling, Alaska (75 miles SE of Cordova) 0359 AKST MAR 11 1259 UTC MAR 11
Old Harbor, Alaska 0400 AKST MAR 11 1300 UTC MAR 11
Hinchinbrook Entrance, Alaska (90 miles E of Se 0409 AKST MAR 11 1309 UTC MAR 11
Seward, Alaska 0423 AKST MAR 11 1323 UTC MAR 11
Alitak, Alaska 0425 AKST MAR 11 1325 UTC MAR 11
Elfin Cove, Alaska 0425 AKST MAR 11 1325 UTC MAR 11
Kennedy Entrance, Alaska (40 miles SW of Homer) 0428 AKST MAR 11 1328 UTC MAR 11
Saint Matthew Island, Alaska 0433 AKST MAR 11 1333 UTC MAR 11
Cape Fairweather, Alaska (80 miles SE of Yakuta 0433 AKST MAR 11 1333 UTC MAR 11
Yakutat, Alaska 0433 AKST MAR 11 1333 UTC MAR 11
Sitka, Alaska 0433 AKST MAR 11 1333 UTC MAR 11
Salisbury Sound, Alaska (25 miles NW of Sitka) 0434 AKST MAR 11 1334 UTC MAR 11
Port Alexander, Alaska 0434 AKST MAR 11 1334 UTC MAR 11
the Alaska/British Columbia border 0538 PST MAR 11 1338 UTC MAR 11
Valdez, Alaska 0443 AKST MAR 11 1343 UTC MAR 11
Langara Island, British Columbia 0543 PST MAR 11 1343 UTC MAR 11
Cordova, Alaska 0452 AKST MAR 11 1352 UTC MAR 11
Cape Decision, Alaska (85 miles SE of Sitka) 0455 AKST MAR 11 1355 UTC MAR 11
DART 46419 0608 PST MAR 11 1408 UTC MAR 11
Homer, Alaska 0516 AKST MAR 11 1416 UTC MAR 11
DART 46404 0625 PST MAR 11 1425 UTC MAR 11
the north tip of Vancouver Island, British Colu 0626 PST MAR 11 1426 UTC MAR 11
DART 46407 0632 PST MAR 11 1432 UTC MAR 11
Craig, Alaska 0534 AKST MAR 11 1434 UTC MAR 11
Ketchikan, Alaska 0540 AKST MAR 11 1440 UTC MAR 11
Juneau, Alaska 0543 AKST MAR 11 1443 UTC MAR 11
DART 46411 0656 PST MAR 11 1456 UTC MAR 11
Tofino, British Columbia 0706 PST MAR 11 1506 UTC MAR 11
Gambell, Alaska 0606 AKST MAR 11 1506 UTC MAR 11
Prince Rupert, British Columbia 0711 PST MAR 11 1511 UTC MAR 11
the Washington-British Columbia border 0712 PST MAR 11 1512 UTC MAR 11
Neah Bay, Washington 0718 PST MAR 11 1518 UTC MAR 11
Clatsop Spit, Oregon 0719 PST MAR 11 1519 UTC MAR 11
La Push, Washington 0719 PST MAR 11 1519 UTC MAR 11
Cape Blanco, Oregon 0719 PST MAR 11 1519 UTC MAR 11
the Oregon-Washington border 0720 PST MAR 11 1520 UTC MAR 11
Point Grenville, Washington 0721 PST MAR 11 1521 UTC MAR 11
Port Moller, Alaska 0622 AKST MAR 11 1522 UTC MAR 11
Charleston, Oregon 0723 PST MAR 11 1523 UTC MAR 11
Douglas/Lane County Line, Oregon (10 miles SW o 0724 PST MAR 11 1524 UTC MAR 11
Cape Mendocino, California 0724 PST MAR 11 1524 UTC MAR 11
Cascade Head, Oregon (70 miles SW of Portland) 0724 PST MAR 11 1524 UTC MAR 11
Tillamook Bay, Oregon 0726 PST MAR 11 1526 UTC MAR 11
Horse Mountain, California (50 miles SW of Eure 0727 PST MAR 11 1527 UTC MAR 11
Fort Bragg, California 0728 PST MAR 11 1528 UTC MAR 11
Humboldt Bay, California 0729 PST MAR 11 1529 UTC MAR 11
Crescent City, California 0730 PST MAR 11 1530 UTC MAR 11
Seaside, Oregon 0731 PST MAR 11 1531 UTC MAR 11
the Oregon-California border 0731 PST MAR 11 1531 UTC MAR 11
Westport, Washington 0732 PST MAR 11 1532 UTC MAR 11
Point Arena, California 0733 PST MAR 11 1533 UTC MAR 11
Newport, Oregon 0733 PST MAR 11 1533 UTC MAR 11
Gualala Point, California (80 miles NW of San F 0735 PST MAR 11 1535 UTC MAR 11
Point Reyes, California 0746 PST MAR 11 1546 UTC MAR 11
Davenport, California (10 miles NW of Santa Cru 0747 PST MAR 11 1547 UTC MAR 11
Point Sur, California 0749 PST MAR 11 1549 UTC MAR 11
Astoria, Oregon 0751 PST MAR 11 1551 UTC MAR 11
Monterey, California 0752 PST MAR 11 1552 UTC MAR 11
Port Angeles, Washington 0755 PST MAR 11 1555 UTC MAR 11
Ragged Point, California (45 miles NW of San Lu 0758 PST MAR 11 1558 UTC MAR 11
DART 46412 0759 PST MAR 11 1559 UTC MAR 11
Point Concepcion, California 0805 PST MAR 11 1605 UTC MAR 11
Port San Luis, California 0811 PST MAR 11 1611 UTC MAR 11
Bella Bella, British Columbia 0812 PST MAR 11 1612 UTC MAR 11
San Francisco, California 0816 PST MAR 11 1616 UTC MAR 11
Cape Newenham, Alaska 0723 AKST MAR 11 1623 UTC MAR 11
Santa Barbara, California 0824 PST MAR 11 1624 UTC MAR 11
Rincon Point, California (15 miles SE of Santa 0835 PST MAR 11 1635 UTC MAR 11
San Pedro, California 0839 PST MAR 11 1639 UTC MAR 11
Santa Monica, California 0839 PST MAR 11 1639 UTC MAR 11
Newport Beach, California 0845 PST MAR 11 1645 UTC MAR 11
La Jolla, California 0848 PST MAR 11 1648 UTC MAR 11
Seattle, Washington 0851 PST MAR 11 1651 UTC MAR 11
Alamitos Bay, California (20 miles SE of L.A.) 0854 PST MAR 11 1654 UTC MAR 11
the California-Mexico border 0854 PST MAR 11 1654 UTC MAR 11
Hooper Bay, Alaska 0854 AKST MAR 11 1754 UTC MAR 11
Little Diomede Island, Alaska 0904 AKST MAR 11 1804 UTC MAR 11
Dillingham, Alaska 0946 AKST MAR 11 1846 UTC MAR 11
Nome, Alaska 1059 AKST MAR 11 1959 UTC MAR 11
Unalakleet, Alaska 1430 AKST MAR 11 2330 UTC MAR 11

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Can someone link me to the video of the tsunami?


CNBC Asia has live footage.

Keep, I hope they are right about no alerts for Cali.
I am less than a half mile from the beach in Goleta.
I am on the second floor but I'd rather boot it up the slope if they post a warning. No beach walking for me.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1080
452. xcool
A sign of very bad things to come :((((
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WEHW40 PHEB 110731
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110931 -
/O.CAN.PHEB.TS.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.W.0001.110311T0731Z-000000T0000Z/
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
931 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0931 PM HST.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.2 NORTH 142.5 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 8.8 MOMENT
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
DART 21413 30.5N 152.1E 0659Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 32MIN
HANASAKI HOKKAIDO J 43.3N 145.6E 0657Z 2.79M / 9.2FT 76MIN
DART 21401 42.6N 152.6E 0643Z 0.67M / 2.2FT 40MIN
DART 21418 38.7N 148.7E 0619Z 1.08M / 3.5FT 06MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
EVALUATION
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.
THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
000
WEPA40 PHEB 110730
TSUPAC
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 003
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0730Z 11 MAR 2011
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
... A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
JAPAN / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / N. MARIANAS / GUAM / WAKE IS. /
TAIWAN / YAP / PHILIPPINES / MARSHALL IS. / BELAU / MIDWAY IS. /
POHNPEI / CHUUK / KOSRAE / INDONESIA / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
NAURU / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. / KIRIBATI / HOWLAND-BAKER /
HAWAII / TUVALU / PALMYRA IS. / VANUATU / TOKELAU / JARVIS IS. /
WALLIS-FUTUNA / SAMOA / AMERICAN SAMOA / COOK ISLANDS / NIUE /
AUSTRALIA / FIJI / NEW CALEDONIA / TONGA / MEXICO /
KERMADEC IS / FR. POLYNESIA / NEW ZEALAND / PITCAIRN /
GUATEMALA / EL SALVADOR / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / ANTARCTICA /
PANAMA / HONDURAS / CHILE / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PERU
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0546Z 11 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.2 NORTH 142.5 EAST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 8.8
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
DART 21413 30.5N 152.1E 0659Z 0.76M / 2.5FT 32MIN
HANASAKI HOKKAIDO J 43.3N 145.6E 0657Z 2.79M / 9.2FT 76MIN
DART 21401 42.6N 152.6E 0643Z 0.67M / 2.2FT 40MIN
DART 21418 38.7N 148.7E 0619Z 1.08M / 3.5FT 06MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED
WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM
ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND
THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.
FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
JAPAN KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0635Z 11 MAR
KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0642Z 11 MAR
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0700Z 11 MAR
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0756Z 11 MAR
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0912Z 11 MAR
RUSSIA URUP_IS 46.1N 150.5E 0714Z 11 MAR
SEVERO_KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0834Z 11 MAR
PETROPAVLOVSK_K 53.2N 159.6E 0836Z 11 MAR
UST_KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0840Z 11 MAR
MEDNNY_IS 54.7N 167.4E 0903Z 11 MAR
MARCUS IS. MARCUS_IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0757Z 11 MAR
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0853Z 11 MAR
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0909Z 11 MAR
WAKE IS. WAKE_IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0925Z 11 MAR
TAIWAN HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0932Z 11 MAR
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0933Z 11 MAR
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0936Z 11 MAR
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 1004Z 11 MAR
YAP YAP_IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0944Z 11 MAR
PHILIPPINES PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0955Z 11 MAR
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 1026Z 11 MAR
DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 1053Z 11 MAR
MARSHALL IS. ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 1013Z 11 MAR
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 1044Z 11 MAR
MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 1124Z 11 MAR
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 1025Z 11 MAR
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY_IS. 28.2N 182.6E 1026Z 11 MAR
POHNPEI POHNPEI_IS. 7.0N 158.2E 1027Z 11 MAR
CHUUK CHUUK_IS. 7.4N 151.8E 1034Z 11 MAR
KOSRAE KOSRAE_IS. 5.5N 163.0E 1043Z 11 MAR
INDONESIA GEME 4.6N 126.8E 1049Z 11 MAR
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 1058Z 11 MAR
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 1110Z 11 MAR
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 1118Z 11 MAR
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 1124Z 11 MAR
JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 1135Z 11 MAR
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 1135Z 11 MAR
PAPUA NEW GUINE MANUS_IS. 2.0S 147.5E 1124Z 11 MAR
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 1124Z 11 MAR
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 1134Z 11 MAR
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 1146Z 11 MAR
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 1154Z 11 MAR
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 1205Z 11 MAR
AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 1211Z 11 MAR
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 1215Z 11 MAR
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 1254Z 11 MAR
PORT_MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 1429Z 11 MAR
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 1149Z 11 MAR
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON_IS. 16.7N 190.5E 1202Z 11 MAR
SOLOMON IS. PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 1221Z 11 MAR
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 1222Z 11 MAR
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 1239Z 11 MAR
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 1248Z 11 MAR
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 1309Z 11 MAR
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 1314Z 11 MAR
KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 1318Z 11 MAR
KIRIBATI TARAWA_IS. 1.5N 173.0E 1228Z 11 MAR
KANTON_IS. 2.8S 188.3E 1329Z 11 MAR
CHRISTMAS_IS. 2.0N 202.5E 1443Z 11 MAR
MALDEN_IS. 3.9S 205.1E 1518Z 11 MAR
FLINT_IS. 11.4S 208.2E 1613Z 11 MAR
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND_IS. 0.6N 183.4E 1243Z 11 MAR
HAWAII NAWILIWILI 22.0N 200.6E 1259Z 11 MAR
HONOLULU 21.3N 202.1E 1313Z 11 MAR
KAHULUI 20.9N 203.5E 1320Z 11 MAR
HILO 19.7N 204.9E 1339Z 11 MAR
TUVALU FUNAFUTI_IS. 7.9S 178.5E 1330Z 11 MAR
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA_IS. 6.3N 197.6E 1346Z 11 MAR
VANUATU ESPERITU_SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 1407Z 11 MAR
ANATOM_IS. 20.2S 169.9E 1502Z 11 MAR
TOKELAU NUKUNONU_IS. 9.2S 188.2E 1409Z 11 MAR
JARVIS IS. JARVIS_IS. 0.4S 199.9E 1427Z 11 MAR
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS_IS. 13.3S 183.8E 1427Z 11 MAR
FUTUNA_I. 14.3S 181.8E 1440Z 11 MAR
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 188.2E 1445Z 11 MAR
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO_PAGO 14.3S 189.3E 1452Z 11 MAR
COOK ISLANDS PUKAPUKA_IS. 10.8S 194.1E 1452Z 11 MAR
PENRYN_IS. 8.9S 202.2E 1525Z 11 MAR
RAROTONGA 21.2S 200.2E 1626Z 11 MAR
NIUE NIUE_IS. 19.0S 190.0E 1526Z 11 MAR
AUSTRALIA CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 1528Z 11 MAR
BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 1620Z 11 MAR
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 1651Z 11 MAR
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 1730Z 11 MAR
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 1811Z 11 MAR
HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 1826Z 11 MAR
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 1528Z 11 MAR
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 1531Z 11 MAR
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 184.8E 1557Z 11 MAR
MEXICO ENSENADA 31.8N 243.2E 1644Z 11 MAR
PUNTA_ABREOJOS 26.7N 246.4E 1732Z 11 MAR
CABO_SAN_LUCAS 22.8N 250.0E 1809Z 11 MAR
SOCORRO 18.8N 249.0E 1819Z 11 MAR
MAZATLAN 23.2N 253.6E 1858Z 11 MAR
MANZANILLO 19.1N 255.7E 1924Z 11 MAR
ACAPULCO 16.9N 260.1E 1959Z 11 MAR
PUERTO_MADERO 14.8N 267.5E 2134Z 11 MAR
KERMADEC IS RAOUL_IS. 29.2S 182.1E 1648Z 11 MAR
FR. POLYNESIA PAPEETE 17.5S 210.4E 1706Z 11 MAR
HIVA_OA 10.0S 221.0E 1744Z 11 MAR
RIKITEA 23.1S 225.0E 1913Z 11 MAR
NEW ZEALAND NORTH_CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 1714Z 11 MAR
EAST_CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 1814Z 11 MAR
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 1814Z 11 MAR
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 1821Z 11 MAR
MILFORD_SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 1839Z 11 MAR
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 1845Z 11 MAR
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 1856Z 11 MAR
NEW_PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 1900Z 11 MAR
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 1908Z 11 MAR
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 1929Z 11 MAR
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 2021Z 11 MAR
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2055Z 11 MAR
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 2113Z 11 MAR
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2206Z 11 MAR
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN_IS. 25.1S 229.9E 2000Z 11 MAR
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 268.8E 2150Z 11 MAR
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 270.2E 2156Z 11 MAR
COSTA RICA CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 2209Z 11 MAR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 2235Z 11 MAR
CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 2237Z 11 MAR
NICARAGUA CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 2217Z 11 MAR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 2223Z 11 MAR
SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 2233Z 11 MAR
ANTARCTICA CAPE_ADARE 71.0S 170.0E 2222Z 11 MAR
THURSTON_IS. 72.0S 260.0E 0121Z 12 MAR
PANAMA PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 2248Z 11 MAR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 2334Z 11 MAR
PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 2344Z 11 MAR
BALBOA_HTS. 9.0N 280.4E 0155Z 12 MAR
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 272.4E 2253Z 11 MAR
CHILE EASTER_IS. 27.1S 250.6E 2255Z 11 MAR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0244Z 12 MAR
IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0249Z 12 MAR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0254Z 12 MAR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0314Z 12 MAR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0315Z 12 MAR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0323Z 12 MAR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0338Z 12 MAR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0352Z 12 MAR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0359Z 12 MAR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0552Z 12 MAR
PUERTO_WILLIAMS 54.8S 291.8E 0855Z 12 MAR
PUNTA_ARENAS 53.2S 289.1E 1700Z 12 MAR
ECUADOR BALTRA_IS. 0.5S 269.7E 2331Z 11 MAR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0003Z 12 MAR
LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0024Z 12 MAR
COLOMBIA BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 2347Z 11 MAR
TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0012Z 12 MAR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0030Z 12 MAR
PERU TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0033Z 12 MAR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0138Z 12 MAR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0139Z 12 MAR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0144Z 12 MAR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0153Z 12 MAR
MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0226Z 12 MAR
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
Quoting victoriahurricane:


I'm not seeing this "35 feet" I'm seeing pictures of the aftermath.
The initial tsunami was 10 meters at least which is roughly 32 feet. It's on every news outlet, unless they are lying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i wonder where the planes are in the footage of sundai airport?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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