Vince: a first

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2005

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Tropical Storm Vince
Tropical Storm Vince's formation today marks the first time that a storm beginning with the letter "V" has been given name. With 20 named storms, the Hurricane Season of 2005 is now in sole possession of second place on the list of busiest hurricane seasons of all time. Only 1933, with 21 storms, had more (back before they started naming storms). Vince formed in a very unusual location, not far from the coast of Spain, and in a region where water temperatures are only 23 - 24 C. I know I always harp on the rule that a water temperature of at least 26C is needed for tropical storm formation to occur, but we can bend that rule a little when a tropical storm forms from a pre-existing non-tropical low pressure system that sits over water for many days, and gradually acquires a warm core. As we've already seen, the Hurricane Season of 2005 doesn't care much about what is usual, and Vince's formation is certainly ample evidence of that. The storm was too far east to fit on our newer tracking maps, and just barely appears on one of our old tracking charts I had to dust off this morning, special for the occasion!

Vince won't be with us for long. A cold front approaching Europe will pick up Vince Tuesday morning, and cold water and wind shear will tear Vince apart. Vince's remains should bring Portugal and Spain heavy rains and winds gusts to 45 mph on Tuesday. Portugal gets the remains of tropical storms every 5 - 10 years, on average. This occurred most recently in October 1998 with Jeanne.

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22 dissipated Saturday evening, torn apart by wind shear. Its remnants will continue west towards the Carolinas, but are not expected to regenerate or bring significant rains to the U.S., as the wind shear is too high (30 knots) for re-development to occur.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following near 15N 53W, about 450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a low level circulation, but the cloud pattern is disorganized. Development is not expected today or Monday, but some slow development after that is possible.

A strong upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating a large curved band of disturbed weather from the Bahamas through the central Caribbean to the Leeward Islands. No development is likely in this area until Tuesday, when the low is expected to weaken and move north and reduce the amount of wind shear over the area. Several of the computer models predict that a tropical storm could form from this disturbed area of weather by mid-week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains at about 1500. Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time. Stan now surpasses Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana.


Figure 2.Total precipition for the year (PC = precipitation in incehs) from a station in Guatemala. During a 5-day period of rain from Stan, this station picked up 17 inches of rain.

The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. The entire village may be declared a mass grave, as rescuers move on to find victims of more survivable mudslides. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala.

The next update will be Monday around 10 am.

Jeff Masters

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363. guygee
3:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I've got a 64-bit Opteron w/ 2 Gig RAM, linked to internet on cable modem, so pics do not bother me, but links serve the same purpose, and you can skip them by choice. I feel for dial-up users, been there: minutes seem like hours as the image slowly downloads. And THIS blog - very primitive, you have to reload constantly, no ignore/.kill file, no editing, no spell-checker...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
362. guygee
2:54 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Bizarro-world scenario: Vince moves south of forecast, mid-level vortex survives passage through Straits of Gibralter, storm reforms in Med Sea. :-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
361. guygee
2:46 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Progressive - Was off to visit "888..gg" blog. Nice and peaceful (and friendly) there.

As for continental ULL over Tenn-Ohio valley vs. West Atlantic ULL, standard interaction is for ULL to rotate around each other, east ULL north, west ULL south, if same strength. If very different strengths, stronger ULL pulls weaker ULL around periphery (sort of the same thing).

In this case, continental ULL definitely beginning to pull more north. I though earlier the strong continental ULL and associated SE trough would definitely pull developing Atlantic system towards mid-Atlantic, now I am not so sure, as Atlantic ULL has maintained steady W course, estimate center at 25.45N 64.34W at 1:45 UTC. Check that against my last observation above.


Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
360. Computermodelsfail2c
2:42 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
So..back to the discussion... Multimedia posts are welcome on my PC... So what are your thoughts on this weather system?
359. leftyy420
2:32 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
lol ok weannabe well i am going into the new entry so u stay here and talk to ur self some. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
358. leftyy420
2:31 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
and i know i am not the only eprson on the blog but if some one has a problem opening the images they need to tweak their settings, not me stop posting pics. duh
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
357. weatherwannabe
2:30 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
lefty you need to work on your predictions - they are not your strong point.
356. weatherwannabe
2:29 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
lefty can't you understand that you are not the only person on the blog?
355. leftyy420
2:28 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
wannabe never sai there would be a gulf of mexico cane. thats what i have been telling you. i said if one goit into the gulf it could be a major based on sst alone but the chance of another getting into the gulf anf having upper air support is low. u didn;t care what i said. so if no hurricane gets into the gulf neither one of us wins. duh
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
354. leftyy420
2:27 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
wannabe i have a right to post picture like any one else. so if ur comp or internet is so slow than compress images. takes 2 second for u to tweak ur settings. its not selfish its p[assing info to those who want it and ur claim is base less as thye can alleviate the situation with a simple tweak of there internet options
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
353. weatherwannabe
2:26 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
btw, lefty, where is you G o Mex Hurricane? Seen one lately tropical weather pro?
352. weatherwannabe
2:25 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
lefty this isn't just your blog. dont be so f'ing selfish
351. leftyy420
2:24 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
pa thats casue thats just ine run of one model. the track is anywehre form a nc landfall to a ne land fall to afish storm. i say cat or 2 at most and late in the period it could encounter alot of shear so thats questionable as well.
trackwill be a timming issue with an approaching cold forn and a retreating high. exact timming will teel where if any landfall will be


guys ther eis a new blog entry. we should all move there
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
350. paweatherfan
2:21 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Lefty looks like the latest run has the storm sitting off the Carolinas and then taking a turn to the N Ne. What's your thoughts on this? also let's say that it does make to the MidAtlantic how strong best estimate(I know it's early just want an opinion).
349. leftyy420
2:19 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
wannabe, if it messes up peoples comp so what. they can go into there browser and have it compress those images so it does not load them duh.


progressive what are u talking about? u rattled off a bunch of hurricanes but i don;t see anything the models did or didn;t do woith those storms. maybe because ur only method of seeing whats happeniong is this blog u don;t see alot of what actually happens like what all themodels are saying. thats why u don;t make statements like you did based on little if any knowledge of the models as i am talking about them and some people might think the models are completely lost when infact they have been right on including everything that has happened this week.

1. formation and disspation of std 22- all in the models
2. formation of vince all in the models
3. now formation of a new cyclone near pr looks to be par per all the global models.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
348. hurricanecrab
2:18 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
St. Simmons - yes, that unnamed hurricane of '32 hit the Cayman Islands (Cayman Brac in particular) and also killed 110 people here in Cayman. It hit here on 08 Nov.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9242
347. ProgressivePulse
2:16 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
the ULL question was just that, a question, I am trying to learn. I was looking at the WV loop on NHC.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
345. weatherwannabe
2:14 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
lefty stop posting those huge images. It screws up the blog for everyone. Thanks.
344. ProgressivePulse
2:13 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I am an amature lefty, I don't follow the moedels at all just by what is posted here, but have lived here in south fla for 3 years and visited grandparents for many years before. Just saying when has the Katrina, Ophillia and Rita thing happened? Just the latest occuance of weather in the past 2 years. I went through Francis and Jeanne last year, did not sleep a wink for either, my first hurricanes, it was an awesome experience. I guess I was more posting a question on the models and how they can be accurate if there are so many first time occurances. Right the GFS had Vince but did anyone at all even pass a thought at it being a Hurricane??
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
343. Weathermandan
2:12 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
wxhatt-Mount Place isn't actually the town hahaha it's Mount Sinai/Miller Place. I just combine the two because I have lots of friends in both and a lot of people reference both areas at the same time. plus I thought Mount Place sounds cool :-D hehe (yeah I have too much free time...)
342. CaneJunky
2:11 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Thank you Lefty. I have been watching this blog for quite sometime now, and I have read what you have weitten, and I have to say I am impressed. You are very knowledgable. I am going on a trip on Thursday and I really didnt want to leave my family home if there was a chance of a storm hitting the Orlando area. THANK YOU!!!
341. leftyy420
2:11 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
progressive what map are u talking about. so i could explain to u what it says as i have not seen anything thats anything that will affect florida any time soon
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
340. wxhatt
2:10 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I looked at your Blog Weathermandan; looks good and very detailed. Is Mount Place in the upstate of NY?
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
339. tornadoty
2:09 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Dr. Masters has a new post.
338. leftyy420
2:08 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
right now there is no cyclone to threaten fl in 5-10 days. everythign will be forced north of florida and most likley affect themid atlantic if it affects the us at all. i will have a full up date at 100am when the rest of the global models come out.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
337. leftyy420
2:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
progressive the next storm to form will be a new low that will form south of pr in 36 hrs. the ull is moving north and will weaken as will the llc from std 22. this low is forcasted to form a cyclone and possibly hit the east coast, say va or north. to early to tell but i have been talking about this system for days. its the only system to form in the atlantic for 5 days per the gfs and ll the other global models. if u look at ir imagery u can see the convection that has persisted for 30+ hours now. most if that convection is due to convergence from the ull and a troipical wave. that is where our next storm will form. none of this was a suprise to me like it was you, i just though he was extratropical. any questions i be glad to answer.

here is a link to the latest gfs sp you can see what i am talking about

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
336. CaneJunky
2:06 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
This is only my second time on here, so please bare with me, can anyone tell me if Fla is in the path of ANY of these waves?
335. CaneJunky
2:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hello all
334. wxhatt
2:03 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Ok Lefty, break out the snow shovels then! Woo Hoo!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
333. ProgressivePulse
2:03 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
So right guygee, how can you answer the question. No way, just sit and be marveled by the weeks occurance, what's around the next corner. Off subject for all. The ULL of 22 is tracking west, the Low tracking east in the midwest is looking like a semi direct hit, would these two lows act like opposing magnets persay and force ULL 22 to the south? Just wondering what the models are picking up on off the Fla. coast in the map on Jeff's Blog.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
332. leftyy420
2:02 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
here is the gfs image from 3 days ago for today.notice vince right where he is now in the gfs image for today. now i assumed that was extratropical but we all just miss read themodels


Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
331. Weathermandan
2:01 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
If anyone wants to talk winter weather or any weather basically, you can go to my blog. I put some stuff up there about the tropics and the snow lol

Link
330. hurricanecrab
2:00 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
WX... you bet.... of course, just the manner in which I sorted these storms skews the stats a bit.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9242
329. wxhatt
1:59 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Very interesting hurricanecrab, thanks for the stats. :)
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
328. leftyy420
1:58 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
progressive, all the models had vince forming, just with his lattitude he like i assumed he was extratropicla. thats why oi gave him no thought. i even said to sj the other day spain was going to be hammered by a strong extratropical; storm. i was refering to vince.

the models have been really good wioth formation this year. i don;t know what models ur looking at but mostly the gfs and thew uk met have formed almost all storms that formed. even the gfs called for both nate and ophelia and rita and katrina. only one i can rem,ebr that got by was stan
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
327. hurricanecrab
1:57 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
p.s. Hurricane Lenny (1999) was a cat 5, as was Hurricane Mitch (1998). Again, WU archives were primary source.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9242
326. wxhatt
1:57 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hey 8, you might want to turn on the Weather Channel now. I think they are going to do another Live Update from Colorado. ;)
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
325. leftyy420
1:55 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
wx thanks but we have already all agredd to this and i tend to look more at the lack of elnino as part of it as much as the warm sst. we have nor'easters every year but tracks with the jet stream rae the big players and when there is no el nino the jets stream is set up for massive nor'easters. i belive 3-5 days ago i said to expect 3 strong nor'easters and to have atleast 1+foot of snow from each storm thru va where i live.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
324. guygee
1:55 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Progressive - So many good questions, so many controversial answers.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
322. hurricanecrab
1:54 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hi All....just a little food for thought. Did a little research (source is primarily WU archives).

1) Since 1990, there have been 17 hurricanes form in the Atlantic/Carib. on or after Oct. 14th. There were numerous TS formed that I did not count.

2) Of those, 7 formed in November.

3) Of the total 17, many were fish storms, however 10 made landfall. Only two made landfall on the U.S.

4) Hurricane Olga (2001) survived until appx. 04 Dec; Hurricane Nichole (1998) survived until appx. 02 Dec.

Just thought that was interesting.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9242
321. wxhatt
1:53 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
He said he was to the west of Denver or something. Don't remeber the city, only that it was somewhat west of that.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
320. ProgressivePulse
1:52 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
opposing concern is Vince, not just Vince but the whole year. Things forming when predicted not to, so many large scale storms when shoulden't be. With all those new trends how can any model or forcast be accurate? Seems like once a week there is a new first in the Hurricane season.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
319. leftyy420
1:52 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
st that ir. its not visble just bw ir and is recent as of 30 mins
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
318. CrazyC83
1:50 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
I'm making my guess on this strange system (based on the 5:00 advisory):

Current - 34.2/18.6 - 987mb - 75mph
6 hrs - 35.0/18.0 - 985mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 35.6/17.0 - 990mb - 65mph
24 hrs - 37.3/14.9 - 989mb - 65mph Becoming Extratropical
36 hrs - 39.5/11.5 - 982mb - 75mph Extratropical
48 hrs - 42.6/8.6 - 985mb - 70mph Extratropical
60 hrs - 44.5/4.2 - 991mb - 60mph Extratropical
72 hrs - Absorbed by a front
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
317. leftyy420
1:49 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
st no.vonce is not over 25-26 degree sst. i have looked at all sst maps that are upto date and he is 200+ miles from any water close to 25 let alone 26 degree temps. this is just one of those things and i think it has tropical chrateristics but is not trully tropical but its a hurricane none the less. so go figure. i think steve is doing what i was doing this morning and trying to figure out how this one formed and has maintained its strength and intensified over sst it is over. tells u we do not know as much as we think we know and that maybe sst are not as big as we thought. maybe its a combo of things but we may neevr know for sure how this happened
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
315. wxhatt
1:46 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
Hi Lefty,

Nice to see your back on. Get ready for some big snows this winter. JB is going to put out the Accuweather Winter forcast soon. Maybe we will see a couple Nor Easters pop this winter during cold outbreaks. He was hinting about the warm waters in the north atlantic lending to that.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
314. 8888888889gg
1:45 AM GMT on October 10, 2005
wxhatt where is he at in co? and is it snowing there right now nic to see it in the snow for a lol and not doing a live up dat on a hurricane

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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