Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on March 04, 2011

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No humans were present on the morning of August 4, 2010, in a remote fjord in Northwest Greenland, when the air vibrated with a thunderous crack as one of the largest icebergs in world history calved from the Petermann Glacier, the island's second largest ocean-terminating glacier. Where the glacier meets the sea, a 43 mile-long tongue of floating ice existed at the beginning of 2010. On August 4 2010, a quarter of this 43 mile-long tongue of floating ice fractured off, spawning a 100 square mile ice island four times the size of Manhattan, with a thickness half that of the Empire State building. According to Andreas Muenchow, associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, the freshwater stored in this ice island could have kept the Delaware or Hudson rivers flowing for more than two years, or kept all U.S. public tap water flowing for 120 days. There was speculation that the ice island could find its way into the open Atlantic Ocean in two years, and potentially pose a threat to oil platforms and ships. However, as the ice island made its turn to get from the narrow Petermann Fjord to enter Nares Strait between Greenland and Canada, the mighty iceberg split into thousands of small icebergs that will not pose an unusual threat to shipping when they emerge into the Atlantic.


Figure 1. The 100 square-mile ice island that broke off the Petermann Glacier heads out of the Petermann Fjord in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 21, 2010. Image credit: NASA. I've constructed a 7-frame satellite animation available here that shows the calving and break-up of the Petermann Glacier ice island. The animation begins on August 5, 2010, and ends on September 21, with images spaced about 8 days apart. The images were taken by NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.

Petermann Glacier spawned smaller ice islands in 2001 (34 square miles) and in 2008 (10 square miles). In 2005, the Ayles Ice Shelf, about 60 miles to the west of Petermann Glacier, disintegrated and became a 34 square-mile ice island. The August 2010 Petermann Glacier calving event created the largest iceberg observed in the Arctic since 1962, when the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf on the north coast of Canada's Ellesmere Island calved off a massive 230 square mile chunk. The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf also calved off a huge 21 square mile ice island a few days after the August 2010 Petermann Glacier calving event. According to an article in livescience.com, "Driftwood and narwhal remains found along the Ellesmere coast have radiocarbon dates from roughly 3,000 to 6,800 years ago, implying that the ice has been intact since those remains were deposited." All of the these calving events are evidence that the ice sheets in the Arctic are responding as one would expect to significantly warmer temperatures.

Warmer ocean temperatures cause significant melting of Greenland's glaciers
At a talk last December at the world's largest conference on climate change, the American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, glacier expert Eric Rignot of UC-Irvine implicated ocean warming as a key reason for the calving of the Petermann Glacier's ice island. The ocean waters near the glacier have warmed by 1 - 2°C over the past three years, he said, and all of the periphery of Greenland has seen ocean heat increases in recent years, with the result that 20 - 80% of all the mass lost by Greenland's glaciers in recent years could be attributed to melting of the glaciers by warmer waters attacking them from beneath. Ocean temperatures along the southwest coast of Greenland (60N to 70N, 60W to 50W) computed from the UK Hadley Center data set during 2010 were 2.9°C (5.2°F) above average--a truly remarkable anomaly, and far warmer than the previous record of 1.5°C above average set in 2003. Sea surface temperature records for Greenland began in the 1920s. A study earlier this year published in the journal Science (Spielhagen et al., 2011) found that ocean temperatures on the east side of Greenland are now at their warmest levels in at least 2,000 years. The researchers studied a sediment core containing fossil remains of planktic foraminifers, which vary as a function of water temperature. The study noted that not only have the waters flowing northward on the east side of Greenland warmed significantly, the volume of water flowing north has also increased, resulting in a large transport of heat into the Arctic. "Such an increased heat input has far-reaching consequences," they wrote.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for 2010 from the NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation SST Anomaly data set for October 2010. Areas colored red are warmer than the 1971-2000 average, areas colored blue are cooler than that average. A large region of record warm water temperatures extended along the west coast of Greenland, leading to record warm air temperatures and record melting along the western portion of Greenland in 2010. Ocean temperatures along the southwest coast of Greenland (60N to 70N, 60W to 50W) computed from the UK Hadley Center data set during 2010 were 2.9°C (5.2°F) above average--a truly remarkable anomaly, surpassing the previous record of 1.5°C set in 2003. Sea surface temperature records for Greenland began in the 1920s. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Record warmth and melting in Greenland during 2010
Greenland's climate in 2010 was marked by record-setting high air temperatures, the greatest ice loss by melting since accurate records began in 1958, and the greatest mass loss of ocean-terminating glaciers on record. That was the conclusion of the 2010 Arctic Report Card, a collaborative effort between NOAA and European Arctic experts that comes out each year. Was 2010 the warmest year in Greenland's history? That is difficult to judge. We know it was also very warm in the late 1920s and 1930s in Greenland, but we only have two stations, Godtahab Nuuk and Angmagssalik, with weather records that go back that far (Figure 3.) Godtahab Nuuk set a record high in 2010, but temperatures at Angmagssalik in 2010 were similar to what was observed during several years in the 1920s and 1930s. Marco Tedesco of the City College of New York's Cryosphere Processes Laboratory remarked that last year's record warmth and melting in Greenland began when an unusually early spring warm spell reduced and "aged" the snow on the surface of the ice sheet, so that the snow became less reflective, allowing it to absorb more heat from the sun. This accelerated snow melt even further, exposing the bare ice, which is less reflective than snow and absorbs more heat. This feedback loop extended Greenland's record melting season well into the fall.


Figure 3. Historic temperatures in Greenland for the six stations with at least 50 years of data, as archived by NASA. Three of the six stations set record highs in 2010. However, only two of the six stations (Godtahab Nuuk and Angmagssalik) have data going back beyond the 1930s, which was a period of warmth in Greenland similar to the warmth of the current decade. Godtahab Nuuk set a record high in 2010, but 2003 still ranks as Angmagssalik's hottest year on record.


Figure 4. The 2010 summer melt season was lasted more than 40 days longer (purple colors) than the mean melt season from 1979 - 2007. Image credit: Arctic Report Card.

Why Greenland matters: sea level rise
The major concern with a warming climate in Greenland is melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which currently contributes about 25% of the observed 3 mm/year (1.2 inches per decade) global rise in sea level. Higher sea levels mean increased storm surge inundation, coastal erosion, loss of low-lying land areas, and salt water contamination of underground drinking water supplies. Greenland ice mass loss is accelerating over the long term, according to independent estimates using three different techniques (Figure 5), with more mass being lost each year than the previous year. According to Rignot et al., 2011, ice mass loss is also accelerating in Antarctica, and "the magnitude of the acceleration suggests that ice sheets will be the dominant contributors to sea level rise in forthcoming decades, and will likely exceed the IPCC projections for the contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise in the 21st century." As I discussed in a 2009 blog post, How much will global sea level rise this century?, the IPCC in 2007 estimated that global sea level would rise 0.6 - 1.9 feet by 2100, but several studies since then predict a higher range of 1.6 - 6.6 feet.

During the warm period 125,000 years ago, before the most recent ice age, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted. This melting plus the melting of other smaller Arctic ice fields is thought to have caused 7.2 - 11.2 feet (2.2 - 3.4 meters) of the 13 - 20 foot (4 - 6 meter) sea level rise observed during that period. Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to 125,000 years ago. If this level of warming occurs, we can expect sea levels to rise 13 - 20 feet several centuries from now. There's enough water locked away in the ice sheet to raise sea level to rise 23 feet (7 meters), should the entire Greenland ice sheet melt.


Figure 5. Loss of mass from Greenland's ice sheet in gigatons per year from 1992 through 2009, as computed from satellite gravity measurements from the GRACE satellites (red line) and from a mass balance method. The mass balance method computes the amount of snow on the surface, the amount of ice mass lost to wind and melt, and the amount of ice lost computed from glacier velocity and ice thickness. Adding together these terms gives the total amount of ice lost or gained over the ice sheet. The acceleration is given in gigatons per year squared. Another paper by Zwally et al. (2011) used a third method, laser satellite altimetry, to determine Greenland mass loss. Between 2003 to 2007, the ice sheet lost 171 gigatons of mass per year. Between 1992 to 2002, Greenland was only losing only 7 gigatons per year. Image credit: Rignot et al., 2011, Geophysical Research Letters.

References
Rignot, E., et al., 2011: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, in press, doi:10.1029/2011GL046583.

Spielhagen, et al., 2011, Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water, Science 28 January 2011: Vol. 331 no. 6016 pp. 450-453 DOI: 10.1126/science.1197397

Zwally, J., et al., 2011, Greenland ice sheet mass balance: distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003 - 07 versus 19922 - 2002, Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 57, No. 201, 2011.

Wunderground's climate change section has a Greenland web page with detailed information and references.

Jeff Masters

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1089. HurricaneDean07
10:57 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
The subtropical system deepening...
850 MB: The vort is strengthening, but its really too late

The low level convergence is all over the place... notice the circle of 5 on the far west of the system, this is exactly where the main circulation which represents the lowering of the circulation(pulling it down to the surface.
Everyone Click on this and check out the RGB on the subtropical system; the circulation of the storm has formed, and there is multiple vortexes that are swinging into the T-storm, but it better hurry cuz the front will hit it in 18 to 36 hours.
Link
Although the shear has dropped by 5 to 15 knots
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1087. sirmaelstrom
10:44 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
For anyone that wants to watch the hearing without sifting through Joe Romm's opinions, I'm posting a link to the appropriate Energy & Commerce Committee link below:

http://energycommerce.house.gov/News/PRArticle.as px?NewsID=8309

Added: There is a new Blog Entry.



Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
1085. JupiterKen
10:37 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
"Republican dementia"? You mean like, Don't spend more money than you have?
Member Since: May 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
1084. washingtonian115
10:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
So did they annouce he retired names yet or not?
SMH I keep thinking that today is the 8th.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
1076. EYEStoSEA
9:31 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ides of march



Sure does have a good-looking set of teeth..:0) ...if ya can't say anything nice, say nothing at all.......
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
1075. washingtonian115
9:31 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
So did they annouce he retired names yet or not?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
1073. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:27 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
Well that explains all the crazies. And I guess it will get worse by the look of it. "BEWARE" the Ides 4 of March!
ides of march

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
1072. nrtiwlnvragn
9:22 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

Do you have another link as that one does not open for me.


It opens, it is a powerpoint file you have to download to your computer.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11112
1070. Patrap
9:15 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Dave Scott performs Galileo's famous experiment on the moon, using a hammer and a feather.

Original courtesy NASA.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1069. Patrap
9:11 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Shuttle Discovery undocked at 6am this morning CDT. Afterward, Pilot Eric Boe flew the shuttle around the space station, allowing the shuttle crew to take photos of the station with its newest addition, the Leonardo Permanent Multipurpose Module.

The fly around began at 6:29 a.m. When it was completed, the shuttle had performed two engine firings, one at 7:15 a.m. and 7:43 a.m., respectively, to begin increasing the distance between the two vehicles.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1067. kwgirl
9:08 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting KennyNebraska:
Extreme Super (Full) Moon to Cause Chaos?
Mar 1, 2011; 7:54 AM ET

Coming up later this month (March 19 to be exact) the moon will make its closest approach to Earth (called lunar perigee) in 18 years. A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a "SuperMoon" by astrologer Richard Nolle. This term has been recently picked up by astronomers. An extreme "SuperMoon" is when the moon is full or new as well as at its 100% greater mean perigee (closest) distance to earth. By this definition, last month's full moon, this month's and next month's will all be extreme "SuperMoons".

Please visit Richard's website by clicking here.

I have read several "new age" forecasts that go something like this: "Extreme SuperMoon this month (March 2011) will bring strong earthquakes and storms and/or unusual climate patterns." Google the term 'extreme SuperMoon March 2011' and see for yourself what comes up. The validity of these types of forecasts can be debated ad nauseum.

There were SuperMoons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. These years had their share of extreme weather and other natural events. Is the Super Moon and these natural occurences a coincidence? Some would say yes; some would say no. I'm not here to pick sides and say I'm a believer or non-believer in subjects like this, but as a scientist I know enough to ask questions and try to find answers.

We obviously know that there are scientific laws that say the moon affects the Earth (i.e. tides). There are also less proven theories that propose that the moon affects the Earth in other ways (i.e. abnormal behavior during a full moon). Can the Super (full) Moon contribute to extreme weather and other natural phenomenon?

AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned. Something BIG could happen on or around this date. (+/- 3 Days is my guess)"

So what can we expect this time? Earthquakes? Volcanic eruptions? I guess we can only wait and see.

Well that explains all the crazies. And I guess it will get worse by the look of it. "BEWARE" the Ides +4 of March!
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1066. KennyNebraska
8:59 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
US farmers fear the return of the Dust Bowl
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1065. KennyNebraska
8:57 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Extreme Super (Full) Moon to Cause Chaos?
Mar 1, 2011; 7:54 AM ET

Coming up later this month (March 19 to be exact) the moon will make its closest approach to Earth (called lunar perigee) in 18 years. A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a "SuperMoon" by astrologer Richard Nolle. This term has been recently picked up by astronomers. An extreme "SuperMoon" is when the moon is full or new as well as at its 100% greater mean perigee (closest) distance to earth. By this definition, last month's full moon, this month's and next month's will all be extreme "SuperMoons".

Please visit Richard's website by clicking here.

I have read several "new age" forecasts that go something like this: "Extreme SuperMoon this month (March 2011) will bring strong earthquakes and storms and/or unusual climate patterns." Google the term 'extreme SuperMoon March 2011' and see for yourself what comes up. The validity of these types of forecasts can be debated ad nauseum.

There were SuperMoons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. These years had their share of extreme weather and other natural events. Is the Super Moon and these natural occurences a coincidence? Some would say yes; some would say no. I'm not here to pick sides and say I'm a believer or non-believer in subjects like this, but as a scientist I know enough to ask questions and try to find answers.

We obviously know that there are scientific laws that say the moon affects the Earth (i.e. tides). There are also less proven theories that propose that the moon affects the Earth in other ways (i.e. abnormal behavior during a full moon). Can the Super (full) Moon contribute to extreme weather and other natural phenomenon?

AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned. Something BIG could happen on or around this date. (+/- 3 Days is my guess)"

So what can we expect this time? Earthquakes? Volcanic eruptions? I guess we can only wait and see.

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1064. RitaEvac
8:56 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Galveston

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1062. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:47 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 21U
5:00 AM EST March 8 2011
======================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 15.7S 159.8E, or 1050 km east of Willis Is and 1270 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.1S 162.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.0S 165.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 19.7S 170.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 22.2S 172.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================

Location from IR and microwave is poor. Little discernable organization at the moment with lack of deep convection near LLCC. System in a low to moderate shear environment but in a strong upper divergent flow. Deep moist inflow to the northeast, ensure that the system likely to intensify. System expected to move east-northeast due to deep southwesterly caused by an upper trough to the south.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Low 21U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
1060. Neapolitan
8:45 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:


And MSNBC is the fountain of all truth. You are such a sad little person. Why do you feel it necessary to attack everyone? You claim to have three children yet you spend countless hours on this blog. Go be a real person.

1) When you get a spare moment, can you kindly tell me what having kids has to do with being here?

2) My hours here aren't "countless"; I'm a writer by trade, so I'm on the internet many hours a day. I have a triple-monitor setup, and WU is on one of those monitors. I may spend 20 minutes per day posting comments here, and another 40 or so reading them during breaks. So, say an hour per day--far less than most people spend polluting their minds with Fox, I might add.

3) Is a "sad little person" not a "real person"? I'm confused. (And while I may occasionally get sad, I'm definitely not little; I'm 6'2".)

4) I don't attack "everyone". Not even close. Just those who don't deal in intellectual honesty. (And even some of them I leave alone after I discover they're not, er, all there; you should feel honored, then, that I still reply to you.)

5) More of a rhetorical question: why do people who post frequently not see the utter hypocrisy in chastising others for posting frequently?

I'm out for a few hours for a meeting with a client (feel free to mark that down in your diary and send it in, ye Neapolitan-obsessed few). But I'll be back later. Be nice, be smart, be honest. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
1059. aquak9
8:42 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
keeper- if you are here-

thank you for changing you avatar, that other one was making me dizzy and wooozy
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25866
1058. kwgirl
8:37 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it can be done


lol
Where do they store the ladder?
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1054. Tropicsweatherpr
8:31 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC may remove NOGAPS from the TCON and TVCN consensus models (slide 13), and may (gasp) add CMCI to TVCN (slide 14).



Link

Do you have another link as that one does not open for me.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14225
1052. Neapolitan
8:29 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:
Let us review. All the people driving two miles to work will buy electric cars. Saves very little energy. All the people driving long distances cannot use electric cars because of lack of range. Use much energy. Herein lies the problem.

Over the road trucks is easy. There are two solutions. Solution number one is go to natural gas for over the road trucks. Solution number two is ship by rail, way more energy efficient way to go. Why don't we do these things?

Why have there been no permits issued for any nuclear plants? And don't start with the waste problems because I know how to do this also. Anyone who comments on that is just too lazy to google or agenda driven. Shut off your computer and go to your cave.

So--you ask a question, but then say that anyone who answers you is a lazy, agenda-driven cave dweller? Gee, I cannot for the life of me imagine why you're not more highly liked around these parts... ;-)

I will agree with your comment about rail; it's very fuel-efficient in the big picture, though it's not practical for many uses. (And call me lazy all you want, but nuclear is dirty. I mean long time dirty.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
1051. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:28 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:
Let us review. All the people driving two miles to work will buy electric cars. Saves very little energy. All the people driving long distances cannot use electric cars because of lack of range. Use much energy. Herein lies the problem.

Over the road trucks is easy. There are two solutions. Solution number one is go to natural gas for over the road trucks. Solution number two is ship by rail, way more energy efficient way to go. Why don't we do these things?

Why have there been no permits issued for any nuclear plants? And don't start with the waste problems because I know how to do this also. Anyone who comments on that is just too lazy to google or agenda driven. Shut off your computer and go to your cave.
its easy to overcome long range appilcations hydro wires always run along roadways you could tap into the supply from small charge stations along the path on each pole these are manless totally automated using smart card tech to access an account to have charges applied right to home electric bill
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
1048. DDR
8:21 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
2 inches forcasted over the next 2 days,6-8 long range for Trinidad,March average is 1.2 inches.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
1047. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:19 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
1046. Skyepony (Mod)
8:19 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
97S in between Madagascar & Africa
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
1045. Neapolitan
8:19 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


This is a good thing. Would be nice to see some NOGAPS upgrades, can't think of a single storm last year it out-preformed the others on.. Nice to see CMC being utilized more. It's been improving steadily.


NOGAPS = NO Good At Predicting Storms. Or so I've been told... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
1044. RitaEvac
8:18 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
How do you fill up or plug in that thing? hose wont reach that high

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1043. Neapolitan
8:17 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:


Black helicopters, don't forget them.


Well, as most any thinking person knows, there's no need for black helicopters and tinfoil hats so long as the media/propaganda/disinformation arm of the Republican Party--i.e. Fox "News"--is in full swing.

To reiterate: "That insane inequality allows those wealthy few to control the...minds of far too many, most of whom are now convinced that those wealthy few have their best interests...at heart." Your response is a perfect case in point; thanks for the validation. ;-)

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
1041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:14 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
I laugh at anyone driving a smart car as well. Especially when their along side a Semi.


it can be done


lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
1040. Skyepony (Mod)
8:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I agree, NOGAPS has not kept up in terms of model improvements. Find it ironic that not many years ago the CMC was referred to as "Can't Model Crap".


This is a good thing. Would be nice to see some NOGAPS upgrades, can't think of a single storm last year it out-preformed the others on.. Nice to see CMC being utilized more. It's been improving steadily.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
1039. nrtiwlnvragn
8:07 PM GMT on March 07, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:


Good news. The NOGAPS is a poor forecast model anyways. The CMC has proven to be somewhat competent with a skill score not too dissimilar from the GFS.


I agree, NOGAPS has not kept up in terms of model improvements. Find it ironic that not many years ago the CMC was referred to as "Can't Model Crap".
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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