Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on March 04, 2011

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No humans were present on the morning of August 4, 2010, in a remote fjord in Northwest Greenland, when the air vibrated with a thunderous crack as one of the largest icebergs in world history calved from the Petermann Glacier, the island's second largest ocean-terminating glacier. Where the glacier meets the sea, a 43 mile-long tongue of floating ice existed at the beginning of 2010. On August 4 2010, a quarter of this 43 mile-long tongue of floating ice fractured off, spawning a 100 square mile ice island four times the size of Manhattan, with a thickness half that of the Empire State building. According to Andreas Muenchow, associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, the freshwater stored in this ice island could have kept the Delaware or Hudson rivers flowing for more than two years, or kept all U.S. public tap water flowing for 120 days. There was speculation that the ice island could find its way into the open Atlantic Ocean in two years, and potentially pose a threat to oil platforms and ships. However, as the ice island made its turn to get from the narrow Petermann Fjord to enter Nares Strait between Greenland and Canada, the mighty iceberg split into thousands of small icebergs that will not pose an unusual threat to shipping when they emerge into the Atlantic.


Figure 1. The 100 square-mile ice island that broke off the Petermann Glacier heads out of the Petermann Fjord in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 21, 2010. Image credit: NASA. I've constructed a 7-frame satellite animation available here that shows the calving and break-up of the Petermann Glacier ice island. The animation begins on August 5, 2010, and ends on September 21, with images spaced about 8 days apart. The images were taken by NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.

Petermann Glacier spawned smaller ice islands in 2001 (34 square miles) and in 2008 (10 square miles). In 2005, the Ayles Ice Shelf, about 60 miles to the west of Petermann Glacier, disintegrated and became a 34 square-mile ice island. The August 2010 Petermann Glacier calving event created the largest iceberg observed in the Arctic since 1962, when the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf on the north coast of Canada's Ellesmere Island calved off a massive 230 square mile chunk. The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf also calved off a huge 21 square mile ice island a few days after the August 2010 Petermann Glacier calving event. According to an article in livescience.com, "Driftwood and narwhal remains found along the Ellesmere coast have radiocarbon dates from roughly 3,000 to 6,800 years ago, implying that the ice has been intact since those remains were deposited." All of the these calving events are evidence that the ice sheets in the Arctic are responding as one would expect to significantly warmer temperatures.

Warmer ocean temperatures cause significant melting of Greenland's glaciers
At a talk last December at the world's largest conference on climate change, the American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, glacier expert Eric Rignot of UC-Irvine implicated ocean warming as a key reason for the calving of the Petermann Glacier's ice island. The ocean waters near the glacier have warmed by 1 - 2°C over the past three years, he said, and all of the periphery of Greenland has seen ocean heat increases in recent years, with the result that 20 - 80% of all the mass lost by Greenland's glaciers in recent years could be attributed to melting of the glaciers by warmer waters attacking them from beneath. Ocean temperatures along the southwest coast of Greenland (60N to 70N, 60W to 50W) computed from the UK Hadley Center data set during 2010 were 2.9°C (5.2°F) above average--a truly remarkable anomaly, and far warmer than the previous record of 1.5°C above average set in 2003. Sea surface temperature records for Greenland began in the 1920s. A study earlier this year published in the journal Science (Spielhagen et al., 2011) found that ocean temperatures on the east side of Greenland are now at their warmest levels in at least 2,000 years. The researchers studied a sediment core containing fossil remains of planktic foraminifers, which vary as a function of water temperature. The study noted that not only have the waters flowing northward on the east side of Greenland warmed significantly, the volume of water flowing north has also increased, resulting in a large transport of heat into the Arctic. "Such an increased heat input has far-reaching consequences," they wrote.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for 2010 from the NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation SST Anomaly data set for October 2010. Areas colored red are warmer than the 1971-2000 average, areas colored blue are cooler than that average. A large region of record warm water temperatures extended along the west coast of Greenland, leading to record warm air temperatures and record melting along the western portion of Greenland in 2010. Ocean temperatures along the southwest coast of Greenland (60N to 70N, 60W to 50W) computed from the UK Hadley Center data set during 2010 were 2.9°C (5.2°F) above average--a truly remarkable anomaly, surpassing the previous record of 1.5°C set in 2003. Sea surface temperature records for Greenland began in the 1920s. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Record warmth and melting in Greenland during 2010
Greenland's climate in 2010 was marked by record-setting high air temperatures, the greatest ice loss by melting since accurate records began in 1958, and the greatest mass loss of ocean-terminating glaciers on record. That was the conclusion of the 2010 Arctic Report Card, a collaborative effort between NOAA and European Arctic experts that comes out each year. Was 2010 the warmest year in Greenland's history? That is difficult to judge. We know it was also very warm in the late 1920s and 1930s in Greenland, but we only have two stations, Godtahab Nuuk and Angmagssalik, with weather records that go back that far (Figure 3.) Godtahab Nuuk set a record high in 2010, but temperatures at Angmagssalik in 2010 were similar to what was observed during several years in the 1920s and 1930s. Marco Tedesco of the City College of New York's Cryosphere Processes Laboratory remarked that last year's record warmth and melting in Greenland began when an unusually early spring warm spell reduced and "aged" the snow on the surface of the ice sheet, so that the snow became less reflective, allowing it to absorb more heat from the sun. This accelerated snow melt even further, exposing the bare ice, which is less reflective than snow and absorbs more heat. This feedback loop extended Greenland's record melting season well into the fall.


Figure 3. Historic temperatures in Greenland for the six stations with at least 50 years of data, as archived by NASA. Three of the six stations set record highs in 2010. However, only two of the six stations (Godtahab Nuuk and Angmagssalik) have data going back beyond the 1930s, which was a period of warmth in Greenland similar to the warmth of the current decade. Godtahab Nuuk set a record high in 2010, but 2003 still ranks as Angmagssalik's hottest year on record.


Figure 4. The 2010 summer melt season was lasted more than 40 days longer (purple colors) than the mean melt season from 1979 - 2007. Image credit: Arctic Report Card.

Why Greenland matters: sea level rise
The major concern with a warming climate in Greenland is melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which currently contributes about 25% of the observed 3 mm/year (1.2 inches per decade) global rise in sea level. Higher sea levels mean increased storm surge inundation, coastal erosion, loss of low-lying land areas, and salt water contamination of underground drinking water supplies. Greenland ice mass loss is accelerating over the long term, according to independent estimates using three different techniques (Figure 5), with more mass being lost each year than the previous year. According to Rignot et al., 2011, ice mass loss is also accelerating in Antarctica, and "the magnitude of the acceleration suggests that ice sheets will be the dominant contributors to sea level rise in forthcoming decades, and will likely exceed the IPCC projections for the contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise in the 21st century." As I discussed in a 2009 blog post, How much will global sea level rise this century?, the IPCC in 2007 estimated that global sea level would rise 0.6 - 1.9 feet by 2100, but several studies since then predict a higher range of 1.6 - 6.6 feet.

During the warm period 125,000 years ago, before the most recent ice age, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted. This melting plus the melting of other smaller Arctic ice fields is thought to have caused 7.2 - 11.2 feet (2.2 - 3.4 meters) of the 13 - 20 foot (4 - 6 meter) sea level rise observed during that period. Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to 125,000 years ago. If this level of warming occurs, we can expect sea levels to rise 13 - 20 feet several centuries from now. There's enough water locked away in the ice sheet to raise sea level to rise 23 feet (7 meters), should the entire Greenland ice sheet melt.


Figure 5. Loss of mass from Greenland's ice sheet in gigatons per year from 1992 through 2009, as computed from satellite gravity measurements from the GRACE satellites (red line) and from a mass balance method. The mass balance method computes the amount of snow on the surface, the amount of ice mass lost to wind and melt, and the amount of ice lost computed from glacier velocity and ice thickness. Adding together these terms gives the total amount of ice lost or gained over the ice sheet. The acceleration is given in gigatons per year squared. Another paper by Zwally et al. (2011) used a third method, laser satellite altimetry, to determine Greenland mass loss. Between 2003 to 2007, the ice sheet lost 171 gigatons of mass per year. Between 1992 to 2002, Greenland was only losing only 7 gigatons per year. Image credit: Rignot et al., 2011, Geophysical Research Letters.

References
Rignot, E., et al., 2011: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, in press, doi:10.1029/2011GL046583.

Spielhagen, et al., 2011, Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water, Science 28 January 2011: Vol. 331 no. 6016 pp. 450-453 DOI: 10.1126/science.1197397

Zwally, J., et al., 2011, Greenland ice sheet mass balance: distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003 - 07 versus 19922 - 2002, Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 57, No. 201, 2011.

Wunderground's climate change section has a Greenland web page with detailed information and references.

Jeff Masters

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RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO SOUTH OF ANTIOCH AND TIGER BEND ROADS IN SHENANDOAH SUBDIVISION NEAR EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH AND ASCENSION PARISH LINE.
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New one...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CST

* AT 1250 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MATHEWS...
OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL ST. CHARLES PARISH AT 110 PM CST
RURAL LAFOURCHE PARISH AT 110 PM CST
RURAL JEFFERSON PARISH AT 120 PM CST
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Quoting afj3:

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar /WUNIDS_map?station=LIX&brand=wui&num=6&am p;delay=15&t ype=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter= 0&t=12993510 31&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorm s=0&map.x=400&ma p.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx =0&transy=0& showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&light ning=0&smoot h=0
Try the image button?

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Quoting xcool:
Tornado reported in Louisiana; at least 9 hurt
Where? link?
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483. afj3
href="http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/r adar/WUNIDS_map?station=LIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay= 15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1299 351031&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=40 0&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&trans y=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&s mooth=0" target="_blank">Link
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482. afj3
Quoting afj3:
Link

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar /WUNIDS_map?station=LIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&t ype=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=12993510 31&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&ma p.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0& showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smoot h=0
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THIBODAUX...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAHNVILLE...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1245 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO
NEAR SHRIEVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF THIBODAUX.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EDGARD BY 100 PM CST...
NORCO...HAHNVILLE...NEW SARPY AND LAPLACE BY 105 PM CST...
DESTREHAN BY 110 PM CST...
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I can agree with much of that eloquently penned post.
Quoting chuckles:
The Sahara according to infrared images was once a thriving tropical rain forest.
We also have found many fossils of tropical fruits, etc. in the Sahara. Dating to about 1500 years ago.

Clearly something was very different WRT to atmospheric circulation patterns. I do not believe any water bodies can account for it not being desert at 30 degrees N (as in GoM being why the SE US isn't desert), though subsiding atmosphere at 30 N and S is why deserts are at 30 N and S.

So what was different? The atmospheric circulation? (I don't think we know. Heck, I don't think any solid theories have been put forth, for that matter.)
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I am looking forward to this front bringing some good rain to Central Florida tomorrow. Of course, as is usually the case, because its the dry season, most of the dynamics and support will be lifted well to the north when it gets here. But there should be just enough when combined with high moisture for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Not expecting too high of rain totals because it will be short lived. However the rainfall will be very heavy and we will take what we can get.

1o minute downpours once a week is usually all we get this time of year.
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478. afj3
Link
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You would do well to look at this particular part of his statement.. unlike yourself.. he is trying to stop the argument that's its "your way or the Highway"

The way you respond.. and I have seen it many times.. anyone who does not agree with you 100% is either a denialist or a fool.


Of course, and that is the kind of thinking that leads to wars and suffering. Pride and selfishness is the root of suffering and war.

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476. xcool
brb
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475. xcool
Tornado reported in Louisiana; at least 9 hurt
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I am a skeptic, unconvinced if you will, although I do believe that global warming is taking place. The evidence that the various sea, land and air temperatures together with ice melt at the poles is irrefutable. I do believe that there are cyclical periods of cooler and warmer periods in between the major ice ages for example and we are moving into a warmer cycle. When compared to the geological lifespan of this plane, recorded civilization (and weather history) as we know it, spans only a paltry few seconds.

I posit that we are missing the bigger picture. While science tends to view various scientific data from meteorological and geological perspectives in studying climate changes, I advocate another theory. That earth in and of itself is a unique living, breathing organism with various needs and appetites for survival similar to human processes. That climate cycles are a necessary byproduct or reaction of this life form.

There is credible science that an increase in carbon dioxide levels does lend to warmer temperatures on average. However I do not believe that increasing carbon dioxide levels are the primary cause, or that these higher levels are all from fuel consumption.

Theoretically, the buildup of toxic gases alone from natural sources over thousands, if not millions of years provides evidence that earth’s climate should not be inhabitable. Yet there is no good overall explanation offered as to how this buildup has been reduced or maintained at habitable levels. Is there something unique about our atmosphere or the processes of earth we do not understand? Other planets are gas trapped, we’re not.

We know the dramatic impact major volcanic eruptions of ash and sulfur into the atmosphere can affect the climate. What about the collective actions of mankind in sum the past several hundred years alone. For example, the declining natural processes which help reduce carbon dioxide in general – plant life. Documented massive reductions in plankton from sea and water pollution runoff or dumping. Add the effects of massive planetary deforestation overall. Slashing and burning of tropical rain forests releasing trapped CO2, while also dramatically reducing the ability to convert into oxygen.

The tropical rain forests in my view are the natural air conditioners of the planet. The Sahara according to infrared images was once a thriving tropical rain forest. It is continuing to expand as ongoing deforestation in neighboring countries consumes trees which attract moisture and create mini eco-climates. Reforest the desert and the tropics and rains may likely return. Will the Amazon Basin begin to resemble the Sahara in several decades? Poor jungle soil; no vegetation; drier, arid conditions persist and average temperatures climb higher. How dramatic will it affect Nino/Nina patterns then?

In review of these propositions, I can not wholly accept that “fossil fuel green house gases” are the primary reason for this change. And so, I will remain unconvinced.

I believe there are other factors needing evaluation, here’s just two examples:

1. Aspects we do not know or understand regarding the earth’s climate and geological history.
    a. “Accurate” records are only several hundred years old versus the millions and billions of years of the earths’ life.
    b. Despite the fossil or geological evidence, we can only surmise or assume certain historical shifts in climate change. Not enough long term data!
    c. We do not have an accurate pattern of minor shifts, hiccups lasting only 1-5,000 years in between significant and easily detectable ice ages or warm periods. It may be we are moving into one now!
    d. We had the dramatic alarms of ozone depletion and the ever widening hole over the south pole due to “bad science – (read paid science) blaming CFC’s. The hole has closed up, and is proving to be cyclical as data now suggests. Who benefitted? U.S. chemical companies with new Freon patents on file. Majority of world still uses cheaper generic Freon.

2) While the acceleration of carbon dioxide levels has grown due to the use of various fuels, what else has changed in the last several hundred years that has not been given equal research or theoretical value?

    a) The lack of studies on the effects of deforestation and CO2 levels.
    b) The unexplainable absence of toxic gas that should have rendered the planet uninhabitable over eons.
    c) The effects of a  smaller S. Am. tropical rain forests on Nino/Nina weather patterns.
    d) Has a depletion of oil basins and water aquifers affected temperatures in the earth’s crust?
    e) Changing ocean currents appear to be the basis for many weather patterns, but is greenhouse gas the sole culprit?

3. The formation of a study or branch of science purporting the earth to be a living organism. Applying theories and data to how best predict and cope with changes, and even repair the damage we have caused.

All said, this debate will rage for years to come, and at this rate, we will come up short in planning and preparing for sea level rise as we exit the Age of Aquarius and begin the Age of Neptune!
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

* AT 1227 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF
WHITEHALL...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GONZALES...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITEHALL BY 1240 PM CST...
SPRINGFIELD BY 1255 PM CST...
PONCHATOULA AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF HAMMOND BY 100 PM CST...
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THIBODAUX...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1218 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LABADIEVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MORGAN CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SCHRIEVER AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LABADIEVILLE BY 1230 PM CST...
THIBODAUX BY 1235 PM CST...
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Quoting jwh250:
Already upwards of 5.5 inches estimated rainfall in southern Tangipahoa parish near Hammond
Some house flooding last night from that, according to Doorman
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craaaack-boommmmmmm

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Va-rooom,va-rooom..,,

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You would do well to look at this particular part of his statement.. unlike yourself.. he is trying to stop the argument that's its "your way or the Highway"

The way you respond.. and I have seen it many times.. anyone who does not agree with you 100% is either a denialist or a fool.


P.S. I have no idea what your (JFLORIDA) qualifications may or may not be... but I think its safe to assume Dr. Seitter's, are well above yours.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I have seen cases of climate scientists who have swept aside reasonable counter hypotheses as irrelevant, or even silly, without giving them proper consideration. Neither situation represents the way a truly skeptical scientist should behave. All of us in the community should expect better.



If Dr. Seitter would have qualified that statement I would not have felt the need for 389. It sounds more like triangulation than an attempt at an acceptable resolution, and indeed perhaps resolution is not the correct term;



There may be other neutral terms that can be applied to those engaged in the climate change discussion, but convinced and unconvinced are the best I have seen so far. I have adopted this terminology in the hope of reducing some of the polarization in the discussion.



That itself is a slanted and incorrect conclusion arrived at by arguing poorly made premises. Several times people here have told me "you'll never win converts" with your tone. Indeed winning converts by opinion is a political process that necessitates propaganda and facilitates conversationally dishonest practices.

It is a argument that tilts possible outcomes towards failure.

Separating and removing opinion from science has always been the underlying object whether admitted to or not. Both in this circumstance and within the historical narrative.


You would do well to look at this particular part of his statement.. unlike yourself.. he is trying to stop the argument that's its "your way or the Highway"

The way you respond.. and I have seen it many times.. anyone who does not agree with you 100% is either a denialist or a fool.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511



My personal favorite picture of all time. :)
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SPC Mesoscale Discussion 190

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...PARTS OF SRN MS AND SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...

VALID 051712Z - 051845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 39 CONTINUES.

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EXPAND...
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
EASTWARD MOTION HAS BEEN PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
SUGGESTED...BUT A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND AN EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18-20Z. THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THIS
OCCURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WITH CELLS
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF... BEFORE MERGING INTO...THE CONVECTIVE
LINE.

WITHIN THE BROAD COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM...LATEST RUC
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
/30-40 KT/ ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR ONGOING STORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI UNTIL THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE
ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/05/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29099178 29839117 30719109 30859108 31189038 31338881
30788830 29838826 28788856 27838900 27418949 27309083
27769320 28319355 28629254 29099178
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting Ylee:
Quoting Orcasystems:
"Did you send him the design you have for the Ark?"
It's not KOG's design, he stole it from Grothar...


I think Grothar has the originals he helped draft :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
stand still behold he's mighty hand


Lot of weather around here....need to extend that watch....just had a hail storm that stripped many of the blooms from many of my fruit trees...keep radars going for south ty
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Quoting GetReal:


Congrats Pat, your continual posting of that article has finally moved me into the "convinced " column... I now know for sure, and without any doubt, that climate change has never ever occurred on planet Earth before...

Thank goodness for those modern instruments, and scientist to read and interprit the findings... i.e. we all know that never before, in the history of the planet, that Greenland was never actually green... Just like there never was forest covering much of Antartica...


What are you talking about?

You will not find any climatologists that say climate has never changed before. In fact, there is a whole branch of climate studies (paleoclimatology) that studies historical climate changes and their causes. It's due to those studies that give us a better handle as to what induces changes in climate, how fast it can occur, etc. .

Pro tip: Before making statements about a topic, you may want to research that topic. Otherwise you run the risk of making yourself look rather silly.

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I've written out my thoughts on the upcoming 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season, with my March predictions, and thoughts on what the ENSO state will be come season.
3/5/11 Spring nears, what might be in store for Hurricane season?
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looks like at the end of the run the cold air will finally be lifting up and out as spring takes a slow hold
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Quoting Xyrus2000:
The planet is warming, which implies something has changed to cause the planet trap more heat. Current research shows that the warming is in line with predictions based on greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Until someone can develop another hypothesis that can explain the current observations and research, while simultaneously showing that a different mechanism is responsible for the additional heat, then the current science stands.

Excellent synopsis.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
what would the undecided be called, "fence sitters"?
;-) That's a good one.

Seriously, though, there truly are more than two groups where climate science is concerned. These are the ones as I see them (and of course there are various degrees and subgroups in each of these):

A) Those who've looked at the overwhelming science that supports the theory and have agreed that it looks mostly right, and that we are on a collison course with disaster if we don't immediately do something about the billions of tons of CO2 we pump into the atmosphere each year;

B) Those who've looked at the overwhelming science that supports the theory and have decided that something about it doesn't look right to them. In response, they've proposed well-formed, scientifically-valid alternate theories to explain the current warming, and they are working diligently to seek multiple indepenent verifications of their findings. NOTE: This group, entirely unassociated with Big Energy interests, comprises roughly 0% of all people.

C) Those who steadfastly refuse to look at any of the signals or the science behind them, and wouldn't admit that the planet was warming even if every speck of polar and glacial ice melted, sea levels rose 200 feet, and the average winter daytime high in Antarctica was 130 degrees;

D) Those who simply don't care about any of this as they're too involved keeping up with Charlie Sheen's tweets and who's going to get kicked off of American Idol this week;

E) Those who may or may not believe any of the signals, but aren't concerned as they feel they won't be affected no matter what happens;

F) Those who believe their chosen deity will protect them and the planet, so we don't need to worry about anything bad happening to us because of our actions;

G) Those who do agree with scientists in private, but know that stating as much publicly could result in a loss of future billions for them, so they instead spend millions of dollars trying to cloud the issue and convince everyone that AGWT is all scam. This group is--as evidenced here on this very forum--sadly succeeding.

If you want labels, then, try these work, but feel free to choose your own: A) The Mostly Convinced; B) The True Skeptics; C) The Willfully Ignorant; D) The Woefully Ignorant; E) The Blissfully Ignorant; F) The Faithfully Ignorant, and G) Big Energy.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.