Fire season is here: wildfires scorch Florida, Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on March 02, 2011

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It's March in the Southern U.S., and that means it's wildfire season. Strong winds and tinder-dry conditions in Northeast Florida near St. Augustine fanned a 10,000-acre fire that forced closure of I-95 yesterday morning. Other fires are burning in Texas and New Mexico, and a fire in West Texas earlier this week burned over 120,000 acres and caused a fatal traffic accident that killed one person. It promises to be an active fire season across the entire southern tier of states this spring due to a very dry winter. Dry winters in the Southern U.S. are common when unusually cold water is present in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean--La Niña conditions. This occurs because the unusually cold waters act to deflect the jet stream, keeping wintertime storm systems from traveling over the Southern U.S. La Niña is gradually weakening, but is expected to last through the spring months, meaning that drought conditions will continue into the summer. There is some relief in sight this weekend for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, where a storm system and associated cold front are expected to bring rains of 1/2 to 1 inch. However, Texas and most of the Florida Peninsula will miss the heaviest rains, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting much above average chances of dry weather across the Southern U.S. for the remainder of March.


Figure 1. NASA's Aqua satellite detected three large fires burning in eastern Florida on February 28, 2011. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, all three wildfires burned out of control and threatened homes. The largest of the fires is the Iron Horse Fire, burning in northern Brevard County. The 10,000-acre fire produced dense clouds of smoke that forced officials to close parts of US Highway 1 and Interstate 95, said news reports. As of March 1, the fire had destroyed one home and was burning towards more densely populated areas, reported CNN. In the north, the Keller Fire also closed roads, including Highway 1 and Interstate 95. The smaller Ferry-7 fire burned primarily in National Forests. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions as of February 22, 2011, showed large regions of drought over the southern tier of states, with the extreme drought conditions over portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, and Florida. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Out of control. (chargescenic)
Brush fire out of control in Central Florida. Looking East toward I-95 across Lake Harney. I-95 is about 14 miles away.
Out of control.
Matador TX Wild Fire (wpablo)
Notice the hogs running from fire
Matador TX Wild Fire
Iron Horse Fire (FotoFun47)
February 28, 2011 near I-95 Volusia and Brevard Counties, Florida 2
Iron Horse Fire

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802. cat5hurricane
2:57 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good morning/evening.

Nice post. Ike rocks.
Climate change science issues interest me, but I agree with the post completely.
Except that I like the animated weather map posts, and visualized climate graph posts. I don't object to following links though.

I hope we get the decaf tropical storm numbers.

LOL. Decaf for me too.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
801. biff4ugo
2:50 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Good morning/evening.

Nice post. Ike rocks.
Climate change science issues interest me, but I agree with the post completely.
Except that I like the animated weather map posts, and visualized climate graph posts. I don't object to following links though.

I hope we get the decaf tropical storm numbers.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1598
800. cat5hurricane
2:48 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Incoming showers for the Iron Horse fire..




As for the poll I'm leaning toward C. We are getting due for an early start. Probably not good for our numbers that the WPac has been so quiet.

Just what the doctor ordered...
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
799. cat5hurricane
2:38 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Good point nea about the corporate companies getting tax breaks.I for one work for one that gets that kind of break.Now not defending them, I will say a lot of the tax breaks on the state and county level comes from the idea of having these large companies in thier area provides jobs, employs suppiers and helps local businesses.Example in our area is all the money chevron and ngss have put back in the schools and communities.They have paid for the building of new schools and school related activities .Youth sports complexes and more.Now while I feel they should pay thier fair share of taxes, thier departure would cost a lot of areas more harm than recieving just thier tax money.One other note.We live in a country that sends billions of dollars overseas to help other countries.Now that is the decent and moral thing to do.On the other hand how do you explain that to the the poverty stricken in this country who could use that money?How about the homeless that did not choose that way of life?How about the disabled vets living in the streets?Or the welfare dependents who really do want to work and have a job and future?Seems to me a lot of us that are not in these situations worry more about people abroad than our own american people.Lets go back back to the old WWII slogan of fight for America put America first.It worked for the greatest generation, look what they accomplished!have a great day.

Very nicely put.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
798. Skyepony (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Incoming showers for the Iron Horse fire..




As for the poll I'm leaning toward C. We are getting due for an early start. Probably not good for our numbers that the WPac has been so quiet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 207 Comments: 39035
797. Neapolitan
2:32 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720
796. cat5hurricane
2:24 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

But in Poland it can be really great distance.Polish weather is very changable,and when here is sunny,80 miles to the east can rain.
I remember on 15 Aug 2008,while on the northwest side of Poland was 53 degress,400 miles to the southeast was 92 degress.This is the day of the strongest tornado ever recorded in Poland,a EF-3 that strucked Cz%u0119stochowa,a city 150 miles east of Wroclaw

An EF-3. Was not aware of the great instability present to produce a tornado that strong around there. Nevertheless, severe weather season is right on our heels though. The clashing of the airmasses is only a whisper away.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
795. ILwthrfan
2:17 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Really? Then I take it you haven't heard many speeches by certain U.S. politicians lately. ;-)

Looks like there's some possibly serious flooding about to start. Where we are now:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

This is for now through Thursday:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

And this is next week's happy news:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

(That's heavy snow for the Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, along with strong to severe storms, including heavy rain through the Mississippi River Valley and eastward on those same days.)


Image if these systems were transversing through the Dakota's and Upper Midwest right now, it would be biblical, although it's only a matter of time before the storm track gets up there.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1539
794. PolishHurrMaster
2:16 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Okay. That's not too far then.

But in Poland it can be really great distance.Polish weather is very changable,and when here is sunny,80 miles to the east can rain.
I remember on 15 Aug 2008,while on the northwest side of Poland was 53 degress,400 miles to the southeast was 92 degress.This is the day of the strongest tornado ever recorded in Poland,a EF-3 that strucked Częstochowa,a city 150 miles east of Wroclaw
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
793. cat5hurricane
2:10 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
And the poll:When we'll see the first tropical storm in 2011(in atlantic basin of course:) )
A-April
B-1 to 15 May
C-16 to 31 May
D-1 to 15 June
E-16 to 30 June
F-1 to 15 July
G-16 to 30 July
H-1 August or after.
My bet:C

Right now; PHM, I'm going to go with E.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
792. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:04 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Really? Then I take it you haven't heard many speeches by certain U.S. politicians lately. ;-)

Looks like there's some possibly serious flooding about to start. Where we are now:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

This is for now through Thursday:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

And this is next week's happy news:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

(That's heavy snow for the Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, along with strong to severe storms, including heavy rain through the Mississippi River Valley and eastward on those same days.)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
791. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:00 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Good point nea about the corporate companies getting tax breaks.I for one work for one that gets that kind of break.Now not defending them, I will say a lot of the tax breaks on the state and county level comes from the idea of having these large companies in thier area provides jobs, employs suppiers and helps local businesses.Example in our area is all the money chevron and ngss have put back in the schools and communities.They have paid for the building of new schools and school related activities .Youth sports complexes and more.Now while I feel they should pay thier fair share of taxes, thier departure would cost a lot of areas more harm than recieving just thier tax money.One other note.We live in a country that sends billions of dollars overseas to help other countries.Now that is the decent and moral thing to do.On the other hand how do you explain that to the the poverty stricken in this country who could use that money?How about the homeless that did not choose that way of life?How about the disabled vets living in the streets?Or the welfare dependents who really do want to work and have a job and future?Seems to me a lot of us that are not in these situations worry more about people abroad than our own american people.Lets go back back to the old WWII slogan of fight for America put America first.It worked for the greatest generation, look what they accomplished!have a great day.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
790. wunderkidcayman
2:00 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
I vote for C
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
789. PolishHurrMaster
1:59 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
When you want,you can call me PHM,ok?
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
788. cat5hurricane
1:59 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

For early march,it's rather warm.Wroclaw is 340 kilometers(215 miles) southwest of Warsaw.

Okay. That's not too far then.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
787. Neapolitan
1:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Nice to hear that:) Speaking english is easy:-)

Really? Then I take it you haven't heard many speeches by certain U.S. politicians lately. ;-)

Looks like there's some possibly serious flooding about to start. Where we are now:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

This is for now through Thursday:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

And this is next week's happy news:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

(That's heavy snow for the Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, along with strong to severe storms, including heavy rain through the Mississippi River Valley and eastward on those same days.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720
786. cat5hurricane
1:57 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
NWS Quad Cities, IA,IL: Spring Snowmelt Flood Outlook #3
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
785. cat5hurricane
1:55 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
at the end of the run it appears the cold air is on its retreat north as spring pushes in


Keeper - I think you just made many very happy.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
784. PolishHurrMaster
1:55 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I'll take that. For this time of year, that's rather balmy, no? And is Wroclaw near Warsaw, the capital?

For early march,it's rather warm.Wroclaw is 340 kilometers(215 miles) southwest of Warsaw.
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
at the end of the run it appears the cold air is on its retreat north as spring pushes in

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
782. cat5hurricane
1:47 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
What about weather in Wroclaw,my native city-50 degrees and sunny sky.

I'll take that. For this time of year, that's rather balmy, no? And, is Wroclaw anywhere near Warsaw, the capital?
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
781. Neapolitan
1:38 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:

More wasteful spending by the US government, what a disaster that is, $424 million down the drain....and we wonder why space programs get cut.

Scientific research? Wasteful? The way this American sees it, if Big Oil can reap billions of dollars per year in direct subsidies--often while paying zero dollars in corporate taxes--I don't mind a fraction of that amount being used to find out how we're messing with the environment. That $424 million works out to less than 4/10ths of a penny a day for every person in this country. That's hardly an onerous burden for something so important, is it?

P.S. -- The spacecraft was insured.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720
780. PolishHurrMaster
1:37 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
What about weather in Wroclaw,my native city-50 degrees and sunny sky.
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
779. PolishHurrMaster
1:35 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
You have the slang down alright:)

Nice to hear that:) Speaking english is easy:-)
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
778. cat5hurricane
1:31 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Reply post 765. Ike is going through some difficult times want post on the blog why out of respect.Ike is a fine man and maybe you should email him and if he chooses to he will let you know.I thank Ike is one of the best bloggers on here, AND HAS FOR A LONG TIME.He never brags or ridicules anyone.He is not out to be a blog glory hound like some.He doesnt come on just to make corny jokes ,make fun of the southern language by constantly mispelling or quoting you tube nonsense.Ike like a lot of the old bloggers is just fed up with the sarcasm, ridicule,and absolute nonsense that has came to this blog.Further more while I honestly admit I have my doubts about the GW theories contrary to belief it is about weather.Last time I checked all these posts from you tube music videos, movies, and other nonsense is not weather related.And a last thought: with hurricane season coming up and a lot of us not having the time to sit behind a computer blog all day due to we have jobs and resposibilties, and have to get up at early hours.Please lets try to be respectful of others and not have a couple people who stay on here 24-7 not monopolize the blog. And please reduce the constant repetitive paste of graphs charts.Post the website and we can go from there.I think this is a lot of what Ike would like to say and a lot of others who have left. Aquak if you are around good morning and God Bless.

IKE is a great blogger. Miss having him around. He's very smart and insightful.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
777. cat5hurricane
1:25 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

* FROM THIS 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY

* 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

* WITH SOIL CONDITIONS STILL QUITE MOIST FROM RECENT RAIN
EVENTS...IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR ANY HEAVY RAINS TO RESULT
IN A RUNOFF SITUATION. CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD RISE QUICKLY
AND ROADWAYS MAY BECOME FLOODED. IN ADDITION...THIS RAINFALL
WILL EXACERBATE THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING..ESPECIALLY IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
776. kwgirl
1:24 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Anyone,what you think about my english skills?(I'm a Pole,so english isn't my native language and i wanna know)
You have the slang down alright:)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
775. PolishHurrMaster
1:20 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting aquak9:


someone- please take away his coffee, redbull, sniff'ms, and every other energizer he has coursing thru his system.

Like a bull in a china shop!!

This extreme prediction was only ironical.It's rather impossible to have 41 tropical storms in year.But 18-11-4 seems reasonable for 2011.
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
774. severstorm
1:14 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Reply post 765. Ike is going through some difficult times want post on the blog why out of respect.Ike is a fine man and maybe you should email him and if he chooses to he will let you know.I thank Ike is one of the best bloggers on here, AND HAS FOR A LONG TIME.He never brags or ridicules anyone.He is not out to be a blog glory hound like some.He doesnt come on just to make corny jokes ,make fun of the southern language by constantly mispelling or quoting you tube nonsense.Ike like a lot of the old bloggers is just fed up with the sarcasm, ridicule,and absolute nonsense that has came to this blog.Further more while I honestly admit I have my doubts about the GW theories contrary to belief it is about weather.Last time I checked all these posts from you tube music videos, movies, and other nonsense is not weather related.And a last thought: with hurricane season coming up and a lot of us not having the time to sit behind a computer blog all day due to we have jobs and resposibilties, and have to get up at early hours.Please lets try to be respectful of others and not have a couple people who stay on here 24-7 not monopolize the blog. And please reduce the constant repetitive paste of graphs charts.Post the website and we can go from there.I think this is a lot of what Ike would like to say and a lot of others who have left. Aquak if you are around good morning and God Bless.

Best comment +1000000000000000
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
773. HIPPOCRITT
1:10 PM GMT on March 04, 2011

Quoting Neapolitan:
A setback for climate research:

NASA science satellite lost in Taurus launch failure

"The protective nose cone of an Orbital Sciences Corp. Taurus XL rocket carrying NASA's Glory environmental research satellite apparently failed to separate after launch Friday, preventing the spacecraft from achieving orbit in a $424 million failure. It was the second nose cone failure in a row for a Taurus XL rocket following the 2009 loss of another environmental satellite.

"The Glory mission got underway at 2:09:43 a.m. local time (5:09:43 a.m. EST) with a sky-lighting launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The rocket's first three solid-fuel stages ignited as planned, but the nose cone fairing did not separate as required two minutes and 58 seconds after liftoff."

Details...
More wasteful spending by the US government, what a disaster that is, $424 million down the drain....and we wonder why space programs get cut.
Member Since: January 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
772. cat5hurricane
1:10 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
771. cat5hurricane
1:09 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Numerous Flash Flood Watches, Flood Watches, and Flood Warnings out for much of the lower and upper Ohio Valley stretching into the part of the Northeast.

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
770. islander101010
1:07 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
2011 2 majors 11 storms plus two td's for some reason this yr they have a hard time spinning up. there will be a couple really bad floods due to stalled out troughs. unfornately thats all is can get without spotting her another 20$ "cystal balls are not cheap you know"
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4986
769. cat5hurricane
1:07 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Looks like the Northeast's turn now:

HPC Days 1-3:

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
768. Neapolitan
12:57 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
A setback for climate research:

NASA science satellite lost in Taurus launch failure

"The protective nose cone of an Orbital Sciences Corp. Taurus XL rocket carrying NASA's Glory environmental research satellite apparently failed to separate after launch Friday, preventing the spacecraft from achieving orbit in a $424 million failure. It was the second nose cone failure in a row for a Taurus XL rocket following the 2009 loss of another environmental satellite.

"The Glory mission got underway at 2:09:43 a.m. local time (5:09:43 a.m. EST) with a sky-lighting launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The rocket's first three solid-fuel stages ignited as planned, but the nose cone fairing did not separate as required two minutes and 58 seconds after liftoff."

Details...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13720
767. SAINTHURRIFAN
12:51 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Reply post 765. Ike is going through some difficult times want post on the blog why out of respect.Ike is a fine man and maybe you should email him and if he chooses to he will let you know.I thank Ike is one of the best bloggers on here, AND HAS FOR A LONG TIME.He never brags or ridicules anyone.He is not out to be a blog glory hound like some.He doesnt come on just to make corny jokes ,make fun of the southern language by constantly mispelling or quoting you tube nonsense.Ike like a lot of the old bloggers is just fed up with the sarcasm, ridicule,and absolute nonsense that has came to this blog.Further more while I honestly admit I have my doubts about the GW theories contrary to belief it is about weather.Last time I checked all these posts from you tube music videos, movies, and other nonsense is not weather related.And a last thought: with hurricane season coming up and a lot of us not having the time to sit behind a computer blog all day due to we have jobs and resposibilties, and have to get up at early hours.Please lets try to be respectful of others and not have a couple people who stay on here 24-7 not monopolize the blog. And please reduce the constant repetitive paste of graphs charts.Post the website and we can go from there.I think this is a lot of what Ike would like to say and a lot of others who have left. Aquak if you are around good morning and God Bless.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
766. severstorm
11:47 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Good Morning All, NRT. I haven't seen Ike in weeks on here. 53 in wcfl this am
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
765. nrtiwlnvragn
11:38 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
aquak9,

Have you seen any entries from IKE lately? Did he decide to take a break from WU?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11298
764. aquak9
11:36 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Like:13-8-3 or 24-14-8,yes?And maybe 41-25-15?


someone- please take away his coffee, redbull, sniff'ms, and every other energizer he has coursing thru his system.

Like a bull in a china shop!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26473
763. pcola57
11:35 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6907
762. PolishHurrMaster
11:11 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
How to change my avatar???
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
761. PolishHurrMaster
9:12 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Anyone,what you think about my english skills?(I'm a Pole,so english isn't my native language and i wanna know)
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
760. PolishHurrMaster
9:09 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
At weekend I'll try to put a more detailed discussion about 2011 AHS.
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
759. PolishHurrMaster
8:56 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


15/8/4. I'm thinking we'll see a lot more early season activity this year, but late season activity might slacken a bit due to the possibility of a developing El Nino.

If El Nino shows no apparent signs of development, however, these numbers will need to be adjusted upward.

I'll put the odds higher,at hmmm...18-11-4.I don't think El nino will develop by summer(maybe in late fall),so storms won't be killed by shear like in 2009(first season I watched).SSTs will be also very warm.As you say we'll probably see the hyperactive beginning.But they're still 3 months to 1 June,so as I say:It's to early to give accurate predictions.
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
758. KoritheMan
8:39 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
And next question:I know it's to early to give any prediction,but basing on actual knowledge,what's your TS-H-MH prediction???


15/8/4. I'm thinking we'll see a lot more early season activity this year, but late season activity might slacken a bit due to the possibility of a developing El Nino.

If El Nino shows no apparent signs of development, however, these numbers will need to be adjusted upward.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
757. PolishHurrMaster
8:36 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Like:13-8-3 or 24-14-8,yes?And maybe 41-25-15?
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
756. PolishHurrMaster
8:28 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
And next question:I know it's to early to give any prediction,but basing on actual knowledge,what's your TS-H-MH prediction???
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
755. PolishHurrMaster
8:20 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah this is basically the main reason.


aha.And now Levi,answer the poll,ok? I feel I'm in love with this season:P
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
754. Levi32
8:18 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
And the poll:When we'll see the first tropical storm in 2011(in atlantic basin of course:) )
A-April
B-1 to 15 May
C-16 to 31 May
D-1 to 15 June
E-16 to 30 June
F-1 to 15 July
G-16 to 30 July
H-1 August or after.
My bet:C


E, for now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
753. Levi32
8:16 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Why?
PS.I'm writing despite I'm on the chemistry lesson in school!


Yeah this is basically the main reason.

Quoting KoritheMan:


The atmosphere had just made the switch from El Nino (2002) to a warm neutral, for one thing. We have nothing like that this year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
752. KoritheMan
8:10 AM GMT on March 04, 2011
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
And the poll:When we'll see the first tropical storm in 2011(in atlantic basin of course:) )
A-April
B-1 to 15 May
C-16 to 31 May
D-1 to 15 June
E-16 to 30 June
F-1 to 15 July
G-16 to 30 July
H-1 August or after.
My bet:C


D
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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