The winter of 2010 - 2011 officially over, but winter-like weather continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on March 01, 2011

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It's March 1, and meteorological winter--the 3-month December, January, February period--is officially over. However, below-average temperatures and winter-like conditions will continue to affect most of the U.S. through the middle of March, and the groundhog definitely messed up his end-of-winter forecast when he failed to see his shadow on February 2 and predicted an early end to winter. While the latest computer forecast models are not showing any new Nor'easters will affect coastal New England in the coming ten days, Chicago and Detroit may see a major winter storm on Saturday, and additional significant snows are likely next week over the Upper Midwest. The potential for additional heavy snows over the Upper Midwest next week is a major concern for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, where winter snows 200% - 400% of average have piled up a snowpack that is among the wettest on record. December-January precipitation ranked in the top ten over the past 116 years. If you take all the snow that is piled up an melt it all at once, it would amount to more than six inches of rain over large swaths of the region. The NWS is predicting a 10 - 30% chance that Fargo, Grand Forks, St. Paul, and portions of South Dakota will see their highest floods in history this spring when that massive snowpack melts.


Figure 1. The amount of water locked in the current snowpack if one were to melt all the snow on the ground. Snow depths in excess of 18 inches with a very high water content lie across much of the Upper Midwest. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

Severe weather, floods hit Midwest, Southeast
Severe weather swept through the Midwest and Southeast yesterday, with six reports of tornadoes in Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. One tornado-related death was reported in Franklin County, Tennessee. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 154 reports of high winds, and 24 reports of large hail. Heavy rains of 2 - 3 inches fell over a large swath of Indiana and Ohio, leading to moderate to major river flooding.


Figure 2. Severe weather reports logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center on February 28, 2011.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Special Effects (chopper5654)
More reported funnel clouds in the St. Louis, MO, area last night. These came in with a squall line bowing out just before midnight. The storms were moving about 70mph and carried straight-line winds to match....along with some rain-wrapped funnels. No reported touchdowns and isolated damage despite 40,000 people area-wide losing power for a few hours. And, it's not even spring! Ronnie's Cine is a long-standing movie plex in the South St. Louis County area at the intersections of Lindbergh Blvd. and Baptist Church Rd. Photo taken 2/28/11 and 900am.
Special Effects
Flooding 2-28-11 (RLR)
Auglaize River Flooding Wapakoneta Ohio
Flooding 2-28-11

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59 Patrap .."Shove me into Shallow water, before I get too Deep"..

And I say, "Hey! What's goin' on?"
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
In the upper tier states and to the far west it will be runoff too. Into the waterways where its not needed.



Excuse me, but... There is no need to dwell on possible negative impacts. If the snow melt from the Sierra Nevada/Siskiyous did not run off into the rivers to valleys where it can be routed for irrigation and SoCal city water, more of California would be desert, and you'd not likely be able to buy good raisins and prunes, cauliflower and broccoli, strawberries, artichokes, almonds, rice. Just to name (add: more than) a few items produced in CA that need water to grow.
:)

Have a nice day.
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caneswatch...And get rid of that Dodge
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caneswatch....How did you get into weather? Me, My ex was a weather observer in the USAF many years ago. I spent a few years at Eielson AFB, Alaska with him...Brrr, I froze my **** off up there...
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
caneswatch....And you probably know my buddy and neighbor Greg Rice.the little guy


Yes I do, the Hulett guy! That's cool. I've always seen him around and on commercials ever since I was a little guy.
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Though the recent rain and flooding happening in and around the Louisville Metro area, it could have been a lot worse. ( Not speaking of why the tornado sirens did not function when the N.W.S. issued a tornado warning at 4:31am Tuesday. )


1 March 1997 → Kentucky's wettest calendar day with 10.48 inches of rain at Louisville, and Lexington's wettest March day with 5.56 inches. In addition, an F2 tornado hit near Bugtussle and Gamaliel, an F1 struck outside Hardyville, and F0 tornadoes were seen in Warren County and Washington County, KY.


If you need some rain, you can have all ours for the next month. :(
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Grother.....tell the "NO SHARKS" to the snorklers
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Quoting caneswatch:


I know. Second straight year I went to it. Went to the beach first, but the shark action, while fun to watch, made my plans go elsewhere.


We never get sharks in Ft. Lauderdale. We have underwater signs that read, "This way to West Palm Beach"
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caneswatch....And you probably know my buddy and neighbor Greg Rice.the little guy
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

I haven't missed one in the last 15 years.....But don't ask me what I saw, "Damn Dave's Last Resort"..BTW.. Not a guy


I know.

Second straight year I went to it. Went to the beach first, but the shark action, while fun to watch, took my plans elsewhere.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I know where you are. It's definitely a nice place. Did you happen to catch the street painting festival this weekend?

I haven't missed one in the last 15 years.....But don't ask me what I saw, "Damn Dave's Last Resort"..BTW.. Not a guy
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Quoting nocaneindy:


Fingers crossed!


Won't even be a problem.
(till it melts!)
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I sure don't care about peoples vacation plans or wasting time on social fodder. Especially when others lives and property are threatened.

How callow. Would be embarrassing if the professionals actually still came to the blog part and didn't just read Dr M and leave.


are we sure JFLORIDA isn't just a computer, based on these types of responses? lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8631
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
caneswatch.....I am in downtown Lake Worth...(one of the few nice places) 100 yards from the Intracoastal...South Palmway


I know where you are. It's definitely a nice place. Did you happen to catch the street painting festival this weekend?
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Phunny how one guy can rattle so many.

I'll have to observe this phenom some more in Depth.

All in one state too.

Phascinating stuff.

Lunch Update,NOLA

sniff,,I smell GUMBO!
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Quoting beell:


Aw, don't worry. Most of it N of 40N will be snow!
;- )


Fingers crossed!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

If you enjoy maps, 2010 sure was a toasty (Figure 1), muggy (Figure 2) one for much of the Eastern US from Florida up through the Carolinas through the Mid-Atlantic states.

These maps below synchronize temperature data directly from the NCDC climate database from weather stations around the US. They even have 1971-2000 climate data maps.

Link

Figure 1:


Figure 2:


I believe it, last summer was very hot, we had many days with temps in the 96 to 98 degree range with 75 to 78 degree dewpoints on top of that. And the Florida sun as you know is the biggest factor of all the makes you feel so hot, even more than heat index does from high temp + dewpoint.

I remember on my trip to central America, when I was in the mountains in Guatemala, we had highs in the low 80's with dew points in the mid 70's, but that sun made it feel like 110. The sun is even much more powerful there than in Florida.

That's also why, no matter what the numbers tell you, it always seems to feel hotter in Florida than northern heat waves. However, northern heat waves are far more dangerous because they slam people who's bodies are not adjusted to the heat.

When it gets to 90 degrees in the deep tropics of Central America, you would swear its 115 to 120, it feels unbearably hot, even a lot worse than Florida when its 90. I was not adjusted to the deep tropics obviously, the native people wouldn't even be sweating much, while I was sweating buckets from doing nothing but walking! lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8631
caneswatch.....I am in downtown Lake Worth...(one of the few nice places) 100 yards from the Intracoastal...South Palmway
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
caneswatch.Palm Beach county here...I hope the line of storms helped with the brush fires around Cocoa..Maybe JFLORIDA has a solution...I just cleaned of my bumper to make room for my new sticker


HAHA, you guys are just making my day even better! I hope it's helping with the dry situation everywhere in Florida.

PBC here too. I'm in Royal Palm Beach, where are you?
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Quoting nocaneindy:
Man if this qpf comes to be, lots of us are in trouble!



Aw, don't worry. Most of it N of 40N will be snow!
;- )
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.callow......New vocabulary word of the week...Last week it was "JFLORIDA".I like this one much better...
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The north south flow of air will speed the melting of the greenland ice cap. The warm moist air flowing north will cause the melting to accelerate to a point that so much freshwater enters the north atlantic that the ocean conveyor belt will shut down.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427344.80 0-mini-ice-age-took-hold-of-europe-in-months.html
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/0902 25132239.htm
The impacts will be global.

http://www.bobkingsley.co.uk/blog/?p=159
http://news.scotsman.com/scitech/Last-Ice-Age-hap pened-in.4351045.jp
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13 48000/Mammoth-Japanese-scientists-resurrect-extinc t-giant-frozen-DNA-5-years.html
"The Kyoto University researchers are planning an expedition to the Siberian permafrost this summer in search of a flash-frozen specimen still rich in DNA."
http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~www-glac/ngrip/presse_07080 4_eng.html
http://www.terradaily.com/2004/040807175825.lneck lp2.html Apparently the Greenland ice sheet formed very fast.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sciencetoday/ 2010/0121/1224262767023.html
http://www.gizmag.com/mini-ice-age-hit-in-months/ 13489/
"Those who scoffed at the swiftness with which the world was plunged into an ice age in the film The Day After Tomorrow may need to rethink their disbelief with new research showing that such a scenario may not be so far from the truth. A new study reveals that switching off the North Atlantic circulation can force the Northern hemisphere into a mini ‘ice age’ in a matter of months rather than the tens of years indicated by previous research."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34242705/ns/technolog y_and_science-science/
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-n asa/2004/05mar_arctic/
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.ph p?id=41518

If the conveyor belt shuts off an ice age/younger dryas is a near certainty.
The worst case scenario is a real life "The Day After Tomorrow"


The THC shutting down would leave the heat in the tropics. The areas that used to be warmed by the THC will get colder. The cold air will collide with the very warm moist air. The storms generated by the colliding air masses will penetrate the stratosphere. The superchilled snowflakes will flash freeze anything the touch. Therefor the ideal gas law is not violated. The storm will bury much of the northern hemisphere with snow. The albedo will stabilize the climate at temperatures not seen since the younger dryas. Since civilization will be devastated by the storm the emission of ghgs will slow. The short lived ground level O3 and black carbon will dissipate in days. The colder oceans will over a longer period absorb much of our CO2. The climate will have stabilized, but at a great cost.
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Quoting Patrap:
Well the thread was going along prety well.

The ignore feature is NOT Broken.


Lordy,...


Don't be so callow. LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
Virgin Galactic signs deal with scientists for space travel

by Melanie Nayer (RSS feed) on Feb 28th 2011 at 11:00AM






While NASA's Discovery made its final frontier into space on Friday, Virgin Galactic was inking its own space deal, this time substituting space tourists for scientists.

Southwest Research Institute, a nonprofit research organization, signed a deal with Virgin Galactic to conduct experiments in suborbital space. Two $200,000 tickets aboard the six-passenger SpaceShipTwo will be handed to Southwest scientists, who will conduct various scientific experiments during the flight.

In a statement obtained by Space.com:

"This agreement signals the enormous scientific potential of the Virgin spaceflight system," Virgin Galactic president and CEO George Whitesides said in a statement. "Science flights will be an important growth area for the company in the years to come, building on the strong commercial success already demonstrated by deposits received from over 400 individuals for Virgin's space experience."

While no date for the commercial space flight has been set, the deal is already generating buzz. The scientist experiments onboard Virgin Galactic hold a value of about $1.6 million.

So, what exactly will the scientists be "experimenting"? The agreement will allow scientists to use SpaceShipTwo as a flying laboratory for experiments in weightlessness, biology, astronomy and climate research, officials said.

Alan Stern, one of the scientists who will be on board the flight, said: "Initially, two of our payload specialists will be flying on Virgin Galactic, conducting biomedical monitoring, atmospheric imaging, and microgravity planetary regolith experiments."

So... kind of like an astronaut? God speed, scientists!

[via Space.com]



Personally I'm excited about the whats developing for the future in space travel, though I doubt you'll find enough courage in me to leave this planet anytime soon, lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8631
caneswatch.Palm Beach county here...I hope the line of storms helped with the brush fires around Cocoa..Maybe JFLORIDA has a solution...I just cleaned of my bumper to make room for my new sticker
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Well the thread was going along prety well.

The ignore feature is NOT Broken.


Lordy,...
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Quoting Grothar:
Looks like somebody lost their book "How to Win Friends and Influence People" again. Canes, I am going to send you a bumper sticker for your car.

"I would rather be callow than shallow"


ROFL, send it ASAP!
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
caneswatch..How are you? JFLORIDA is one of the (guys?) that read in between the lines to make him look better(not). jflorida is only one of the many hundreds that post here that may have a small amount of weather intelligence ,BUT, has "NO" common sence how to deal with people. If I had my druthers"I CHOOSE PEOPLE" JFLORIDA is known as a "Non-people person" Must be the overflowing of the color "PINK"


Good, how about you? Enjoying this nice weather we're having for the next couple of hours.

I've had my experience with non-people persons in life and it never was pleasant. Thankfully, i'm not dealing with them any longer.
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Grother..I want one
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Looks like somebody lost their book "How to Win Friends and Influence People" again. Canes, I am going to send you a bumper sticker for your car.

"I would rather be callow than shallow"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Virgin Galactic signs deal with scientists for space travel

by Melanie Nayer (RSS feed) on Feb 28th 2011 at 11:00AM






While NASA's Discovery made its final frontier into space on Friday, Virgin Galactic was inking its own space deal, this time substituting space tourists for scientists.

Southwest Research Institute, a nonprofit research organization, signed a deal with Virgin Galactic to conduct experiments in suborbital space. Two $200,000 tickets aboard the six-passenger SpaceShipTwo will be handed to Southwest scientists, who will conduct various scientific experiments during the flight.

In a statement obtained by Space.com:

"This agreement signals the enormous scientific potential of the Virgin spaceflight system," Virgin Galactic president and CEO George Whitesides said in a statement. "Science flights will be an important growth area for the company in the years to come, building on the strong commercial success already demonstrated by deposits received from over 400 individuals for Virgin's space experience."

While no date for the commercial space flight has been set, the deal is already generating buzz. The scientist experiments onboard Virgin Galactic hold a value of about $1.6 million.

So, what exactly will the scientists be "experimenting"? The agreement will allow scientists to use SpaceShipTwo as a flying laboratory for experiments in weightlessness, biology, astronomy and climate research, officials said.

Alan Stern, one of the scientists who will be on board the flight, said: "Initially, two of our payload specialists will be flying on Virgin Galactic, conducting biomedical monitoring, atmospheric imaging, and microgravity planetary regolith experiments."

So... kind of like an astronaut? God speed, scientists!

[via Space.com]
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah, and you're right in the 'bullseye, nocaneindy.

I'm hoping this 4-5 day projection backs off a bit by evening.


You and me both. We're still in a flood warning as I type. Our rivers and creeks are supposed to crest today, but it appears it'll be short lived if that comes about.
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Man if this qpf comes to be, lots of us are in trouble!

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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I sure don't care about peoples vacation plans or wasting time on social fodder. Especially when others lives and property are threatened.

How callow. Would be embarrassing if the professionals actually still came to the blog part and didn't just read Dr M and leave.


Didn't you see the part where I said "That's not good at all, especially in some places in the NE. No one needs it again?"

I guess not. It just shows exactly who you are.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Over time individual snowflakes settle and compact, becoming denser and denser as they are forced together. It's how glaciers are formed: what starts as light and fluffy snow becomes impenetrably thick ice with a very high water content.
  Not only that,snow still melts in temps below freezing. 
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canes... yes she does!

:)

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Quoting NRAamy:
Don't forget to wear your helmet, keep your boots dry, don't forget your scarf. If you feel a cold coming on, wrap you neck in Vicks, and please watch out for those trees on the downslopes. Other than that, have a good time.

yes, Grandma....

;)


Grandma knows best, doesn't she ;) LOL
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I sure don't care about peoples vacation plans or wasting time on social fodder. Especially when others lives and property are threatened.

How callow. Would be embarrassing if the professionals actually still came to the blog part and didn't just read Dr M and leave.

"He's back" Look who's talkin' about caring about the fellow man" "MAN"?
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Holly-wood?

Comes to wu.






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Quoting NRAamy:



ridin' in style.....

:)
I've never looked closely at that pic...that's looking toward Navarre Beach just over the bridge
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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