Drought in China adds pressure to world food prices

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 AM GMT on February 23, 2011

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The soil lies cracked and broken in China's Shangdong Province, thirsting for rains that will not come. China's key wheat producing region, lying just south of Beijing, has received just 12 millimeters (1/2 inch) of rain since September, according to the Chinese news service Xinhua. If no rains come during the remainder of February, it could become the worst drought in 200 years. The latest precipitation forecast from the GFS ensemble model predicts the possibility of rains of around 1/2 inch for Shandong Province early next week, but these rains would help only a little. A longer-range 2-week forecast from the operational GFS model shows little or no rain for the region from late next week well into March. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects that spring in Eastern China has an enhanced probability of being dry, with only a 20% - 25% chance that the region will see above average precipitation, and a 40% - 45% chance of below average precipitation. So the great drought will likely continue, and China's ability to feed itself may be greatly challenged this year.


Figure 1. A dried cornfield in a mountainous area of Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province, Jan. 18, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua/Zhu Zheng.


Figure 2. Drought conditions in China's Shandong Province this February have reached the "Severe" category. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

Impact on global food supplies and food prices
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the drought in north China seems to be putting pressure on wheat prices, which have been rising rapidly in the past few months. This has helped push global food prices to their highest levels since the FAO Food Price Index was created in 1990 (Figure 3.) China is the world's largest producer of wheat, and if they are forced to import large amounts of food due to continued drought, it could severely impact world food prices. However, the FAO's regional representative for Asia and the Pacific said in an interview with Reuters last month that the situation is not as severe as in 2008, when global food riots erupted. "In general, the supply/demand situation of food grains has become very tight at the moment but enough stocks means there is no cause for alarm," Konuma said. "We still maintain sufficient stocks, which is about 25 percent of annual production. As long as there are sufficient stocks, that means the world has enough food still to feed the people." However, he said that if food stocks continued to decline over the next few years, there would be cause for concern.

The record food global food prices have been partially driven by two other huge weather disasters, the Russian summer heat wave and drought of 2010, and the Australian floods of December - January 2011. Both Russia and Australia are major exporters of grain. Russia issued a ban last summer on grain exports because of their drought, which slashed the wheat harvest by 40% and damaged soils to such an extent that 10% of Russian wheat fields could not be planted this year. The Russian heat wave of 2010 is now estimated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters to be the deadliest in human history, with 55,736 deaths. The Australian floods caused at least $1.7 billion in agricultural damage, reducing their wheat crop significantly. Fortunately, bumper crops were harvested in non-flooded areas of Australia, and the winter crop harvest in country was up 19% over the previous year's crop, and was the biggest since 2003 - 2004. Australia has been struggling with severe drought in recent years that caused more agricultural damage than the floods did.


Figure 3. The global price of food between 1990 - January 2011, as measured by the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of price indices for Cereals, Oils and Fats, Sugar, Dairy, and Meat, weighted by the average export shares of each group. Food prices between 2002 - 2004 are given a benchmark value of "100". Global food prices in January 2011 were the highest since the FAO Index was established in 1990. Image credit: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Drought outlook for Northern Hemisphere summer of 2011
The spike in global food prices this winter raises the concern that a severe drought in a major grain producing region in North America, Europe, or Asia this summer could severely impact grain supplies and food prices. Fortunately, with La Niña conditions over the Eastern Pacific weakening, and possibly abating by summer, the chances for such a drought are lower than they would have been if La Niña were to stay strong into the summer. The latest precipitation forecast from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Figure 4) shows few areas of drought concern for the coming Northern Hemisphere summer. However, our skill at predicting drought months in advance is limited. For example, IRI's February 2010 forecast of precipitation for the summer of 2010 did not highlight Russia as an area of possible concern for drought, and Russia ended up having one of its worst droughts in history. IRI did highlight the Amazon as a region likely to have below-average summer rains, though, and the Amazon ended up having a 100-year drought last summer.


Figure 4. Global precipitation forecast for June, July and August of 2011, made in February 2011. Only a few scattered regions of the globe are predicted to have above-average chances of drought (yellow colors.) These areas include the Northwest U.S., Southern Brazil, and Northwest China. Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Commentary
The recent unrest in the Middle East, which has been attributed, in part, to high food prices, gives us a warning of the type of global unrest that might result in future years if the climate continues to warm as expected. A hotter climate means more severe droughts will occur. We can expect an increasing number of unprecedented heat waves and droughts like the 2010 Russian drought in coming decades. This will significantly increase the odds of a world food emergency far worse than the 2007 - 2008 global food crisis. When we also consider the world's expanding population and the possibility that peak oil will make fertilizers and agriculture much more expensive, we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, with droughts made significantly worse by climate change contributing to events that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.

I will be doing another post on Thursday or Friday.

The New York Times' Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth Blog has a more in-depth look at the food and climate change issue that I recommend.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Floridahhhhh

This fog product is just kewl. Clear which areas are clouds and which are fog: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_640_anis.asp?product=goes-east_4km_fog_reflecti vity
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More fun stuff coming over the wire this morning:

All Coral Reefs Extinct by 2050

"The world's coral reefs could be wiped out by 2050 unless action is taken to stop threats posed to the 'rainforests of the sea'.

"Warmer seas caused by global warming; ocean acidification blamed on carbon dioxide pollution; shipping, overfishing, coastal development and agricultural runoff all pose a threat to coral reefs, which hundreds of millions of people depend on for a living, says the report.

"'If left unchecked, more than 90 per cent of reefs will be threatened by 2030 and nearly all reefs will be at risk by 2050,' says the 'Reefs at Risk Revisited' report, which was compiled by dozens of research, conservation and educational groups led by the World Resources Institute think-tank."

Article...
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Neopolitan just curious?Is global warming the only thing on this earth you are interested in?Not trying to pick at you I could have swore I said a lot more in my post than just global warming.You know I was taught if you put your faith and all your support behind man you are doomed to fail.I read that in the 4 chapters of he book I referenced that those 4 scientist 2000 years ago pasted.Seems like everything masters said was seen by those scientist.I believe these scientist only have what they have because of the higher Diety.And maybe just maybe this Diety has had enough of mans arrogance.Once again ask not what your country can do for you ask what you can do for your country.And lip service and sitting behind a computer all day getting calices on our behind is not helping.Roll up our sleeves ,go to work and worry about America first.That ole God, family, country seem to work fine.Just think our society when this country was built and founded did pretty well without computers,cell phones and other modern technology, that has made our society including you and I spoiled and lazy.To give you and example: NGSC. sent a group of us to japan too see why thier factories and Industry produce at such a higher level than ours.Well what we observed was they all did thier part,worked together and did not spend most of thier time trying to get out of work or complaining about thier job.Thier factory leaders told us point blank That we had to much overhead(aka to top heavy, and basically a spoiled and lazy work force.) this really made me mad at first but after I got back to my company and sat down with other managers and talked about it we realized they were exactly right.Sad to say my father a ww2 vet and member of Americas greatest generation had told me that for years.To bad it was after he was dead I found he was exactly right.And in closing in the orient the elders are considered wise and are listened to shame that does not apply to us anymore.

?????????????? !
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U.S. State CO2 Emissions: Top 10 Polluters From Power Plants In 2010 (PHOTOS)

Joanna Zelman Posted: 02-23-11 09:03 AM


Carbon dioxide emissions from power plants rose in 2010 by over 5% -- this is the biggest annual increase since the EPA started tracking emissions in 1995. In part, this increase can be explained by warmer weather and a recovering economy. But the statistics are worrisome. 2010 was one of the hottest years ever recorded, and while in 2010 coal-fired boilers accounted for 45% of U.S. electricity, they were reportedly responsible for 81% of CO2 emissions from electricity generation.

A recent study released by The Environmental Integrity Project has listed the 10 states whose power plants emitted the most CO2 in 2010, based on EPA data. Did your state manage to dodge the list?




#10 Missouri power plants emitted 83,279,658 tons of CO2 emissions in 2010, rising from 75,774,756 tons in 2009.

#9 In 2009, Alabama power plants emitted 74,033,748 tons of CO2 emissions. In 2010, that number rose to 84,734,38 tons.

#8 In 2010, Georgia power plants emitted 86,826,424 tons of CO2 -- in 2009, the state emitted 81,906,514 tons.

#7 In 2009, Kentucky power plants emitted 92,614,351 tons of CO2. In 2010, the state emitted 99,246,065 tons.

#6 Illinois power plants emitted 102,752,939 tons of CO2 in 2009 - that number rose to 107,082,729 tons in 2010.

#5 Pennsylvania power plants emitted 114,331,904 tons of CO2 in 2009. In 2010, it emitted 123,345,741 tons.

#4 Indiana power plants emitted 117,544,009 tons of CO2 in 2009, and in 2010, the state emitted 123,695,438 tons.

#3 In 2010, Ohio power plants emitted 124,966,156 tons of CO2. In 2009, the state emitted 119,793,429 tons.

#2 Florida power plants emitted 119,960,137 tons of CO2 in 2009. In 2010, the state emitted 130,324,532 tons.

#1 Texas power plants emitted 244,248,050 tons of CO2 in 2009. They emitted 256,903,967 tons in 2010. According to the report, Texas power plants emitted more than 7 times the total CO2 emissions from power plants in California. The state has a favorable climate for wind energy, and yet Texas reportedly opened three new coal plants near the end of 2010.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
I'm sorry, Nea...yeah that definitely counts.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Corn and cereal grain ethanol is a good use for excess crop and by-crop - also its byproducts are used in feed. It adds value to farmed products.

However,

Its not good to subsidize it for fuel use or to exclusively grow it for fuel though. I think the current number quoted is about 40 percent of the US corn crop is used for fuel.


And given the energy and materials for growing that 40%, they could grow A LOT more switch grass which is basically a weed that grows anywhere and has a much higher yield.

But they don't give subsidies for growing switchgrass.
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Quoting aquak9:
meteorlogy, geology, astronomy, music, computer software development, avation, photography, cooking, sports

he didn't list gardening, or myelodysplasias...hopes are fading fast...

My sister had myelodysplastic syndrome; does that count?
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meteorlogy, geology, astronomy, music, computer software development, avation, photography, cooking, sports

he didn't list gardening, or myelodysplasias...hopes are fading fast...
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Exellent blog!!labels=1 labels=1 labels=1:)
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l

Link
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Quoting pottery:
Those drought areas, as modeled above, are bad news if they come to pass.
Some of the Worlds most vulnerable areas are highlighted there.
(Australia being the only exception, although drought there will affect many other countries).




This map? Are you looking at the pink areas with a "D"?

That's not drought, those are areas that will be in their dry season so there was no forecast calculated for those areas (i.e. no precipitation is expected anyway during that time period). It's only the yellow, orange, and red areas that may see dry conditions during June, July, August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Neopolitan just curious?Is global warming the only thing on this earth you are interested in?Not trying to pick at you I could have swore I said a lot more in my post than just global warming.You know I was taught if you put your faith and all your support behind man you are doomed to fail.I read that in the 4 chapters of he book I referenced that those 4 scientist 2000 years ago pasted.Seems like everything masters said was seen by those scientist.I believe these scientist only have what they have because of the higher Diety.And maybe just maybe this Diety has had enough of mans arrogance.Once again ask not what your country can do for you ask what you can do for your country.And lip service and sitting behind a computer all day getting calices on our behind is not helping.Roll up our sleeves ,go to work and worry about America first.That ole God, family, country seem to work fine.Just think our society when this country was built and founded did pretty well without computers,cell phones and other modern technology, that has made our society including you and I spoiled and lazy.To give you and example: NGSC. sent a group of us to japan too see why thier factories and Industry produce at such a higher level than ours.Well what we observed was they all did thier part,worked together and did not spend most of thier time trying to get out of work or complaining about thier job.Thier factory leaders told us point blank That we had to much overhead(aka to top heavy, and basically a spoiled and lazy work force.) this really made me mad at first but after I got back to my company and sat down with other managers and talked about it we realized they were exactly right.Sad to say my father a ww2 vet and member of Americas greatest generation had told me that for years.To bad it was after he was dead I found he was exactly right.And in closing in the orient the elders are considered wise and are listened to shame that does not apply to us anymore.

Is GW the only thing I'm interested in? Not in the least; I have a seriously wide-ranging number of interests, among them meteorlogy, geology, astronomy, music, computer software development, avation, photography, cooking, sports, and so on, and so forth. And when I'm in venues related to those subjects, I write copiously on them. It may seem that I have a GW obsession to some here--especially in the hurricane off-season--as that's the only interaction they have with me, but that's far from the truth. However, I am deeply concerned with warming; it irritates me to no end when otherwise clear-thinking people refuse to remove their blinders of political ideology and see where things have been and clearly are headed. And for the record, I take no issue with those who choose to put their full faith in one or more of the 2,000 or se deities man has invented over the millennia; as I've said before, I only take exception when they let that personal faith guide decisions that affect those of us who don't share that faith.
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Complete Update

If you miss seeing snow.. and I am not one of those people.. go look at the Koi cam link on my blog :(





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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #58
TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (17U)
9:00 PM WST February 23 2011
===============================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 22.8S 112.8E, or 165 km southwest of Exmouth and 250 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is now over open water and moving away from the coast. Carlos is likely to reintensify overnight and on Thursday as it moves in a general southwest direction.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are no longer expected in coastal parts between North West Cape and Coral Bay.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are being experienced between North West Cape and Coral Bay and are likely to extend down the coast as far as Cape Cuvier. GALES may extend as far south as Carnarvon overnight if the system tracks further towards the south.

People on the west coast south of North West Cape, including residents of Carnarvon, are warned that tides will be higher than normal and may rise above the normal high tide mark during Thursday.

HEAVY RAINFALL will continue to cause localised flooding for western Pilbara coastal streams. Significant stream rises are not expected as rivers remain below flood level. Conditions will ease from the east overnight Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Carnarvon and adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Exmouth has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 23.6S 111.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.8S 109.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 27.7S 105.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 31.0S 103.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Carlos has crossed the North West Cape and is now over open water.

Dvorak estimates based on VIS/IR curved band. Visible images between 0730 and 0830 UTC yielded DTs of 4.0 based on 1.1 wrap. More recent IR imagery yielded DTs of 3.5 based on 0.7 wrap. MET is 4.5 based on a trend of D-, PAT is 4.0, FT is constrained to 3.5 with CI held at 4.0. Intensity estimate is 60 knots [10-min]. This is in general agreement with SATCON with intensity of 65 knots [1-min] at 0900 UTC.

At 1200 UTC, CIMSS indicated easterly shear of 9.3 m/s.

In the last 3 hours the system has shown signs of intensification with deep convection starting to wrap around the LLCC. Carlos is over open water with ocean heat content remaining high east of 110E. Once Carlos moves west of 110E it should begin to weaken under the prevailing shear as SSTs decrease.

The forecast track shows steady southwest motion under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Carlos will be issued at 15:00 PM UTC..
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Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU (11F)
1:00 AM NZDT February 24 2011
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu, Category Three (945 hPa) located at 29.8S 177.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving southeast at 20 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in sector from east through south to north

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in sector from east through south to north

The next Hurricane Warning from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
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Climategate goes SERIAL: now the Russians confirm that UK climate scientists manipulated data to exaggerate global warming


Climategate just got much, much bigger. And all thanks to the Russians who, with perfect timing, dropped this bombshell just as the world’s leaders are gathering in Copenhagen to discuss ways of carbon-taxing us all back to the dark ages.
Feast your eyes on this news release from Rionovosta, via the Ria Novosti agency, posted on Icecap. (Hat Tip: Richard North)
A discussion of the November 2009 Climatic Research Unit e-mail hacking incident, referred to by some sources as “Climategate,” continues against the backdrop of the abortive UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen (COP15) discussing alternative agreements to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that aimed to combat global warming.
The incident involved an e-mail server used by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich, East England. Unknown persons stole and anonymously disseminated thousands of e-mails and other documents dealing with the global-warming issue made over the course of 13 years.
Controversy arose after various allegations were made including that climate scientists colluded to withhold scientific evidence and manipulated data to make the case for global warming appear stronger than it is.
Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.
The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory. Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations.
The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.
The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations.
On the whole, climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations.
IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.
The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world’s land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration.
Global-temperature data will have to be modified if similar climate-date procedures have been used from other national data because the calculations used by COP15 analysts, including financial calculations, are based on HadCRUT research.
What the Russians are suggesting here, in other words, is that the entire global temperature record used by the IPCC to inform world government policy is a crock.








Link



Historical cold waves
[edit] Modern cold waves (2001-date)
2009-2010 European Cold Wave - At least 90 are confirmed dead after record low temperatures and heavy snowfall across Europe causes travel disruption to much of the continent including the British Isles, France, the Low Countries, Germany, Austria, Italy, Poland, the Baltic States, the Balkans, Ukraine and Russia. Coldest winter for 30 years in the UK with the longest sustained cold spell since 1981. Temperatures in the Italian Alpine peaks have reached low to an extreme of -47 °C.
December 2009 North American Blizzard - heaviest blizzard for a decade causes power outages and travel chaos along the U.S Eastern Seaboard and Eastern Canada killing at least five people.
Early 2009 European Cold Wave - Early January gave most of Europe, especially in central and south very cold temperatures. Some places like Germany, France, Italy, Romania and Spain had record cold temperatures well below 0°C. Most of the places were covered in snow and ice which caused school closings and airport delays. Large cities like Paris, Madrid, Berlin and even Marseille saw very cold temperatures with lots of snow and ice in Northern Italy, most of Germany, in northern Portugal and even along the coasts of the Mediterranean. In early February another cold front brought heavy snowfall to much of Western Europe with the heaviest snow falling in France, Northern Italy, the Low Countries and the United Kingdom, where parts of Southern England had seen the worst snowfall in over 18 years causing widespread travel disruption particularly around London.
2008 North American Cold Wave - In December, Canada and large parts of the United States experienced very heavy snowfall and plummeting temperatures. Snowfall was seen in unusual areas along the Great Plains, the Gulf Coast, and even in the deserts in and around Las Vegas. Also, over a foot of snow fell in Seattle and other parts of the lowland Pacific Northwest. Mexico experienced a number of cold waves in October, December and January, with temperatures below 0°C.
2008 Alaska - In early February Alaska experienced some of the coldest temperatures for 8 years, with Fairbanks nearing (-50 °F (-46 °C) and Chicken, Alaska bottoming out at -72 °F (-58 °C), a mere 8 degrees away from the record of -80 °F (-62 °C). The first half of January also brought unusual cold weather and heavy snow to widespread regions of China and the Middle East.
2007 Argentine cold wave - An interaction with an area of low pressure systems across Argentina during the July 6, July 7 and 8 of 2007, and the entry of a massive polar cold snap resulted in severe snowfalls and blizzards, and recorded temperatures below -30º C. The cold snap advanced from the south towards the central zone of the country, continuing its displacement towards the north during Saturday, July 7. On Monday July 9, the simultaneous presence of very cold air, gave place to the occurrence of snowfalls. This phenomenon left at least 23 people dead.[3][4]
2007 Northern Hemisphere cold wave - All of Canada and most of the United States underwent a freeze after a two-week warming that took place in late March & early April. Crops froze, wind picked up, and snow drizzled much of the United States. Some parts of Europe also experienced unusual cold winter-like temperatures, during that time.
2005-2006 European cold wave - Eastern Europe and Russia saw a very cold winter. Some of them saw their coldest on record or since the 1970s. Snow was an abundance in unusual places, such as in southern Spain and Northern Africa. All the winter months that season saw temperatures well below average across the continent.
2004-2005 Southern Europe cold wave - All areas of Southern Europe saw an unusually hard winter. This area saw an ice storm which have a 1 in 1000 chance of happening.[citation needed] This cold front caused snow in Algeria, which is extremely unusual. The south of Spain and Morroco also recorded freezing temperatures, and record freezing temperatures were observed on the north of Portugal and Spain.
2004 January cold outbreak, Northeast United States - New England was near a record month when frequent Arctic fronts caused unusually cold weather. Boston was one of their coldest in 114 years. Virginia Beach had an unusually long period of below freezing weather. One area of New York saw 150 inches of snow in a month. Many parts of the western and midwestern area of the country seen the effect as well.


Reasons to be sceptical, 1,2,3

Why don't you get back into bed
Why don't you get back into bed
Why don't you get back into bed
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But wait, there's more...
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

VALID 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SWRN STATES ON SAT/D4...AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON D5
AND D6. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS...SO PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DENOTE ANY SEVERE AREAS.
HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...AN AREA
WILL EVENTUALLY BE ADDED...SOMEWHERE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THIS
POWERFUL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SUN INTO MON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Neopolitan just curious?Is global warming the only thing on this earth you are interested in?Not trying to pick at you I could have swore I said a lot more in my post than just global warming.You know I was taught if you put your faith and all your support behind man you are doomed to fail.I read that in the 4 chapters of he book I referenced that those 4 scientist 2000 years ago pasted.Seems like everything masters said was seen by those scientist.I believe these scientist only have what they have because of the higher Diety.And maybe just maybe this Diety has had enough of mans arrogance.Once again ask not what your country can do for you ask what you can do for your country.And lip service and sitting behind a computer all day getting calices on our behind is not helping.Roll up our sleeves ,go to work and worry about America first.That ole God, family, country seem to work fine.Just think our society when this country was built and founded did pretty well without computers,cell phones and other modern technology, that has made our society including you and I spoiled and lazy.To give you and example: NGSC. sent a group of us to japan too see why thier factories and Industry produce at such a higher level than ours.Well what we observed was they all did thier part,worked together and did not spend most of thier time trying to get out of work or complaining about thier job.Thier factory leaders told us point blank That we had to much overhead(aka to top heavy, and basically a spoiled and lazy work force.) this really made me mad at first but after I got back to my company and sat down with other managers and talked about it we realized they were exactly right.Sad to say my father a ww2 vet and member of Americas greatest generation had told me that for years.To bad it was after he was dead I found he was exactly right.And in closing in the orient the elders are considered wise and are listened to shame that does not apply to us anymore.
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N.T and W.A has a much wetter than normal dry season, So did Qld.

Dr. Masters, Why no mention about the Christchurch Quake. Last year there was a blog on Haiti, Samoa, Chile and others. Yet no mention of the Christchurch quake.
Also no mention of STC Atu or the re-born TC Carlos.

If China isn't able to sustain themselves, would they let there people stave or import food????
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Small Moderate Risk area for tomorrow.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN
MS...AND WRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD
INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE
PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING
NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL
AT 00Z.

...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK
THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.

A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..JEWELL.. 02/23/2011
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(leaning towards the "running around naked" approach, esp since I think we hit 81 here in Jax yesterday)

maybe I could borrow a pair of that barber's tennis shoes, though
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I can always understand ya, SaintHurrifan

always a warm smile for me, when you post

besides, it's keeper the one, who needs a boxfulla punctuation, I oughtta mail him some

:)
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@Aquak9: right on as usual. Some fear those days of reckless consumerism are coming to an end; others hope they are.

@SAINTHURRIFAN: while it may be true that some here cite only pieces of information that support their personal points-of-view, I try my very best to only reference actual science. It just so happens that science generally supports my points-of-view, and vice versa. To put it plainly, there have been tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers that support to a lesser or greater degree the theory of AGW. Conversely, there have been no peer-reviewed papers that refute any of the three basic tenets of that theory (the world is warming rapidly; that warming is caused primarily by a rise in CO2; that rise in CO2 is primarily from the burning of fossil fuels).

Anyway, this:

Poll: Climate emails spurred TV meteorologist's global warming doubts

"A climate science brouhaha over emails stolen from climate scientists led to more doubt about global warning among TV weathercasters, suggests a new poll. Hacked in 2009, the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit cache of roughly 1,000 emails (and computer code) sparked investigations after climate naysayers complained the researchers spoke about harshly about their critics and schemed to obscure shortcomings in their own research. A series of high-profile investigations cleared the "climategate" researchers of the scientific misconduct charges. But the damage to public perception of climate science may have been felt, at least briefly, suggests the poll of TV meteorologists.

"In particular, politically conservative weathercasters expressed more climate change doubts, finds the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society poll analysis led by Ed Maibach of George Mason University (GMU) in Fairfax, Va. ""Most members of the public consider television weather reporters to be a trusted source of information about global warming%u2014only scientists are viewed as more trustworthy," says Maibach, in a statement. "Although subsequent investigations showed that the climate scientists had done nothing wrong, the allegation of wrongdoing undermined many weathercasters' confidence in the conclusions of climate science, at least temporarily."

"Since political views have largely driven U.S. global warming views in the last decade, it may be that TV weathercasters are not immune to ideology guiding the response to such scandals, they conclude."


Article...
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Morning all.
Quoting aquak9:
cause the media keeps drilling into our heads- how to keep up with the Jones's.

Buy it- bigger louder faster shinier sexier tastier

buy it buy it buy it, so WHAT if it's using up every damn natural resource on the planet

it's all gotta be made in a factory somewhere

I bet if all the clothing companies in the world, quit making clothes for a year? ain't NONE of us would go around naked.

Well...unless we chose to, heh heh heh...
You gotta point... we buy a lot more than perishables... a lot of that stuff we don't really need. Met a guy once... buys 4 - 5 pairs of tennis shoes each year, whenever something new comes out. On a barber's salary. Granted, he didn't have any dependents, but still....

Unfortunately, our society is predicated on "get, get get". It's only when some disaster happens that some people are willing to give / share. And even then [witness the 1/2 dozen pple who went to the earthquake-ravaged CBD in Christchurch, not to help rescue efforts, but to steal things] there are some pple who only want to get.

While I don't assume drought is man-made, IMO it's more likely for it to be the result of human activity than just about any other wx pattern. I think no matter how prosperous the world as a whole is, there will always be some people who are suffering from famine, partly because of climate changes, partly because of human attitudes.

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Sorry english was never my strong suit.Spent a lot of money on tutors to help me get my papers and thesis written on the way to a Mba lol.Also have some very good Admin aids that work for me to get my english straight thank God.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Have to admit Dr. Masterspost is pretty chilling.But everything he posted sounded very familiar to me.Seems like it came out of a book ive read and been taught about all my life< for that matter it seems like a lot of people have read all of this in the same book for the last 2000 years.Famine, unrest in the middle East, wars and rumours of wars, and global catastrophes.now in the current times where we live in the world based on the gospel of science, those scientist that saw all of this 2000 years ago must have been genuises or did they have divine intervention? well believe or not believe is everyones choice but for some of our very intelligent bloggers that paste every piece of information supporting thier views are actually quoting from a post that was written 2000 years ago .Makes you think? as far as current situation;well as our country is really run by the oil companies, we will never see a changein that dont be so naive as to think one party is not tied to the oil industry more than the other.if you think that you are naive.All these major political canidates recieve big campaign donations and make promises to get elected.In a rather simple term they are all in bed with the oil companies.The internal combustible engine has been obselete for decades.Alternative energy has been available for decades.So do the math , thier is to much money and power to lose for it to change.I admit ive have been a conservative,but have not been proud to say that since Ronald Reagan.Although I did have great respect for George H. Bushs service to this country in WW11.As for as the democrats? i have not had respect for any of them since JFk even though he was a little before my time.His inauguaral speech sticks with me today."Ask not what your country can do for you.Ask what you can do for your country.Seems in my opinion thats what we need to do.We are now a generation that whines and complains, instead of rolling up our sleeves AND GOING TO WORK.Hopefully someone will organize succesfull and appeasing third party to choose from, for these two we have are not getting it done nor will they ever.In closing to this rant maybe Americans should start worrying about feeding our own people,employing our own people,educating our own people and when we can do that then we will be more than able to help the others.If you dont agree with America first then go to the Ms. delta region,the coal mine areas of kENTUCKY and West Virginia.Pasting things that makes us feel good about our views to basically cause dissagreement will never help.This country must be united once again not as divided as it is now.Goodmorning and God bless.



I think you have some good ideas in there, but crickey mate, a paragraph mark or two wouldn't hurt.
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75 confirmed deaths so far in the aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake, with 300 still missing of which more than 100 are presumed dead within the collapsed CTV building.
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Have to admit Dr. Masterspost is pretty chilling.But everything he posted sounded very familiar to me.Seems like it came out of a book ive read and been taught about all my life< for that matter it seems like a lot of people have read all of this in the same book for the last 2000 years.Famine, unrest in the middle East, wars and rumours of wars, and global catastrophes.now in the current times where we live in the world based on the gospel of science, those scientist that saw all of this 2000 years ago must have been genuises or did they have divine intervention? well believe or not believe is everyones choice but for some of our very intelligent bloggers that paste every piece of information supporting thier views are actually quoting from a post that was written 2000 years ago .Makes you think? as far as current situation;well as our country is really run by the oil companies, we will never see a changein that dont be so naive as to think one party is not tied to the oil industry more than the other.if you think that you are naive.All these major political canidates recieve big campaign donations and make promises to get elected.In a rather simple term they are all in bed with the oil companies.The internal combustible engine has been obselete for decades.Alternative energy has been available for decades.So do the math , thier is to much money and power to lose for it to change.I admit ive have been a conservative,but have not been proud to say that since Ronald Reagan.Although I did have great respect for George H. Bushs service to this country in WW11.As for as the democrats? i have not had respect for any of them since JFk even though he was a little before my time.His inauguaral speech sticks with me today."Ask not what your country can do for you.Ask what you can do for your country.Seems in my opinion thats what we need to do.We are now a generation that whines and complains, instead of rolling up our sleeves AND GOING TO WORK.Hopefully someone will organize succesfull and appeasing third party to choose from, for these two we have are not getting it done nor will they ever.In closing to this rant maybe Americans should start worrying about feeding our own people,employing our own people,educating our own people and when we can do that then we will be more than able to help the others.If you dont agree with America first then go to the Ms. delta region,the coal mine areas of kENTUCKY and West Virginia.Pasting things that makes us feel good about our views to basically cause dissagreement will never help.This country must be united once again not as divided as it is now.Goodmorning and God bless.
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February 15: Why do some people still deny anthropogenic climate change is happening?
Haneen posted this in Uncategorized on February 22nd, 2011



This week focused on the issue of human denial when dealing with climate change. The readings gave a good overview of the topic and the class lecture and videos allowed for more development and discussion regarding the reasons behind this phenomenon. As an open-minded, knowledgeable student, I am aware of the climate change taking place during the past 100 years or so and the introduction class sessions showed me that it is mainly due to human activity. However, many people still refute this claim, even though there is a plethora of evidence supporting this view.

The various articles assigned for this week were interesting; many were short yet some were lengthier and dived into the issue in more detail. The article “Challenging Global Warming as a Social Problem: An Analysis of the Conservative Movement’s Counter-Claims” summarized the issue of climate denial in the conservative political aspect. It “examines the nature of the counter-claims used by the conservative movement in its efforts to delegitimize the claim that global warming is a serious threat deserving government action” (Dunlap/McCright 500). It talks about the movement’s counter-claims regarding global warming (critiques of science, “benefits” of global warming, and negative consequences of policy change) and how these claims strengthen their movement (515). The book “Climate Cover-up” discusses the ways in which this issue has been deemed insignificant by certain scientists and others who have a stake in the arena and compared it to the former belief that smoking is not dangerous and does not cause cancer (Hoggan 34). It also talks about the action think tanks are taking regarding climate change, the importance of language use, and of course, denial arguments. One example was a petition claiming “500 Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares”; yet, many of them wrote to the author of this document and refuted that they signed it or even agreed with it (Hoggan 94). Just because a person is a scientist does not mean their work is reputable and correct; many distort the facts to serve their own needs and beliefs.

The 4 newspaper/magazine articles outlined the relationship between political party views and climate denial. The NYT article “Climate Change Doubt Is Tea Party Article of Faith” discussed the issue of how “skepticism and outright denial of global warming are among the articles of faith of the Tea Party movement, here in Indiana and across the country.” (Broder 1). These members are driven by their religious beliefs, distrust in elites, as well as the belief of a conspiracy to enact a worldwide government. A NYT/CBS news poll showed that “only 14 percent of Tea Party supporters said that global warming is an environmental problem that is having an effect now, while 49 percent of the rest of the public believes that it is” (Broder 2). Fossil fuel industries have similar views, mainly because they have an agenda to deny climate change. Freedomworks, a group supported by oil industries, claims on their website that “Any effort to make electricity and fuel more expensive or to cap or regulate CO2 will only exacerbate an already critical situation and cause tremendous economic damage,” (Broder 2). These examples tie in with the reasons behind skepticism. Even Sarah Palin, a member of the Tea Party, expressed her view that “while we recognize the occurrence of these natural, cyclical environmental trends, we can’t say with assurance that man’s activities cause weather changes” (Leshner 1).

Figure 4 This graph is a clear indication that the issue of anthropogenic climate change is a belief held more strongly by democrats than republicans, which is not a surprise due to the content of the readings for the week.

In class, Professor McElwee presented on this issue in a clear, logical manner that was easy for me to understand as well as an outsider with no previous knowledge on the matter. She outlined that there exists a broad science consensus (since 1993) that climate change is indeed anthropogenic and the different reasons on why there are still skeptics (climate deniers). These include: 1) no proof 2) no consensus 3)warming is not anthropogenic 4) humans can adapt to any change and 5) controlling GHG (Greenhouse gases) emissions would ruin U.S. economy (McElwee 3). However, these are self-contradictory and go against the basic standards of science. Other concerns express the fear that nothing can be done to solve climate change, that warming stopped in 1998 with El Nino, and the patterns of local weather (colder winter–> no global warming. There was also the refutation of the claim that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a pollutant: people believed that the increase in CO2 led to an increase in the growth of fruits, vegetables and other crops (McElwee 9). This is true; however, plants need a certain amount of sunlight and water to grow, and not just CO2. This idea that this greenhouse gas is a fertilizer is an example of cherry picking: taking one idea out of an entire spectrum and using that to support one’s claims.

Other arguments people use to deny climate change are as follows: 1) ice cores show that warming precedes increase in CO2 (partly, but CO2 is a major driver overall) 2) IPCC summary does not reflect the body of the report (yes, it does) 3) scientists used to say that the Earth was cooling (this is a part of the natural climactic cycle) 4) it hasn’t warmed since 1998 (2005 is the hottest year on record, 2010 being a close tie) 4) Antarctica is cooling, therefore the rest of the world isn’t warming (it will start warming again in 2030, all part of the climactic cycle) (McElwee 11). Famous deniers such as Lord Monckton demonstrate that even respected scientists and intellectuals do not accept climate change and there are reasons behind this motive. These include business interests, conservative think tanks conflating politics with science, deliberate misreading of science by non-scientists, skepticism of UN, environmentalists, world governance and contrariness or advancing one’s individual prestige (McElwee 14). It is important to also look at if publications are peer-reviewed and where the research is published (quality of the journal). These are two necessary qualities in order to deem one as an expert on an issue.

We watched a substantial-length documentary titled “Science Under Attack” that discussed the issue of climate denial and it stressed the different of denial and skepticism. The narrator believed that skepticism is necessary in science in order for one to do the research and to figure out the answers using the correct scientific method. It is natural to question and to be hesitant on issue, the important thing is to try and answer these inquiries and to be sure about the facts. One of the climate deniers in the video claimed that “consensus is not science” which I found to be baffling. Science is all about consensus: that is what the scientific method ensures. By having a universal step-by-step process of conducting research and testing out theories, the final result should be the same for anyone doing the experiment; otherwise, it would not be proven correct.

In conclusion, the readings for this week did a good job of answering the question “why do some people still deny anthropogenic climate change is happening?”. With all of these fact available, it is quite easy to see the effects human have on the emission of greenhouse gases, the increase of CO2, and other factors that contribute to this rising trend. Unfortunately, people will always have their personal beliefs and motives for having other views that attribute these changes to mainly natural forces, which will be a destructive choice as the future continues to look more bleak if swift action is not taken to reduce carbon emissions.
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I thought they used a drunken chicken to make the MJO graph up, glad there is some science behind it.
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I thought financial disclosure vocabulary was hard. Little did I know.
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The MJO Moving graph on the Mercator maps usually helps,,now where I hid it on 3 systems is the challenge diz am
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
It was a little fuzzy to me before you cleared that MJO thing up for me Patrap.I'm with Neo,I've got to get back to school,although from that MJO discussion probably to little to late.
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cause the media keeps drilling into our heads- how to keep up with the Jones's.

Buy it- bigger louder faster shinier sexier tastier

buy it buy it buy it, so WHAT if it's using up every damn natural resource on the planet

it's all gotta be made in a factory somewhere

I bet if all the clothing companies in the world, quit making clothes for a year? ain't NONE of us would go around naked.

Well...unless we chose to, heh heh heh...
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Perhaps we could make some progress toward solving our problems if only people would learn to learn...

Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed on the Topic of Climate Change?)

"As glaciers melt and island populations migrate from shores to escape rising seas, many scientists remain baffled as to why the research consensus on human-induced climate change remains contentious in the U.S.

"The frustration revealed itself during a handful of sessions at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C., this past weekend, and it came to a peak during a Friday session, 'Science without borders and media unbounded.'

"Near the session's conclusion, Massachusetts Institute of Technology climate scientist Kerry Emanuel asked a panel of journalists why the media continues to cover anthropogenic climate change as a controversy or debate, when in fact it is a consensus among such organizations as the American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Chemical Society, American Meteorological Association, National Research Council and the national academies of more than two dozen countries."

Article
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Nonlinear principal component analysis applied to the tropical MJO cycle

Monday, 24 January 2011: 11:45 AM
2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Johannes Jenkner, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. J. Cannon
Recorded Presentation
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant pattern of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere. Traditionally, linear principal components (LPCs) are derived in tropical atmospheric fields to identify the dynamical signal of the MJO. The restriction to a leading subset of the LPCs provides a reduction of dimensionality and ideally discards all computational modes without a physical background.

Here, an alternative MJO definition is presented based on a nonlinear principal component (NLPC) computed by a neural network with a circular bottleneck node. The bandpass–filtered input data encompass 30 years with zonal winds on 850 hPa and 200 hPa plus outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The NLPC is conditioned on an active MJO and is computed both for the pooled dataset and for the dataset stratified into seasons. Seasonal modulations are derived from the full solutions and then corroborated by means of a residual bootstrap with 250 repetitions.

The NLPC for all data depicts a circular mode within the first pair of LPCs and marginally projects onto the higher–order LPCs. The NLPC for individual seasons shows additional variability which mainly arises from a stronger contribution of the higher–order LPCs. In reference to the all–year solution, the difference of resolved variability approximately accounts for 9% in solstitial seasons and 3% in equinoctial seasons. A secondary oscillation is evoked by the third and fourth LPC and superimposed on the annual MJO signal. The third LPC contributes to the NLPC with a changing sign throughout the year. The spatial structure of the third LPC is characterized by OLR anomalies over the Maritime Continent and baroclinic wind modulations which peak in phase over the Indian and eastern Pacific Oceans. The phase lag in the NLPC is such that convective activity oscillations over the Maritime Continent as well as wind oscillations over the Indian Ocean appear to be enhanced (suppressed) during boreal winter (summer). The fourth LPC contributes less to the NLPC than the third LPC, but causes the upper– level westerlies over the Atlantic region to be more persistent during boreal spring than during other seasons.

Overall, the presented approach provides a clearly arranged mapping of the MJO cycle and sheds some new light on the seasonal variations of the MJO.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting hurricane23:


The MJO behavior will certainly be worth watching over the coming months.If i had to make an early call i'd bet on cool neutral.


Lets see if MJO gets stuck in our basin again this season. I think that we're going to see a fairly active July, neutral years in the last few years are pretty active in July. 2008 and 2005 for example.
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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #56
TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (17U)
3:00 PM WST February 23 2011
===============================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 22.5S 113.4E, or 2100 km southwest of Exmouth and 265 km north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center in northern quadrant
15 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is now over open water and moving away from the coast. Carlos weakened a little as it moved over North West Cape but is likely to reintensify as it moves into open waters.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are possible on the western side of North West Cape during this afternoon possibly extending south to Coral Bay during the afternoon.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the North West Cape and are likely to extend down the coast as far as Cape Cuvier later this afternoon and during the evening. GALES may extend as far south as Carnarvon tonight if the system tracks further towards the south.

People on the west coast south of North West Cape including residents of Carnarvon are warned that tides will rise higher than expected, and may rise above the normal high tide mark during Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible localised flooding for western Pilbara coastal streams. Conditions will ease from the east during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Carnarvon and adjacent inland parts.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 23.4S 111.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.4S 109.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 27.1S 105.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 29.7S 103.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Carlos has crossed the North West Cape and is now over open water. The strongest winds remain on the eastern and northern side, somewhat removed from the centre of the cyclone.

Dvorak estimates based on VIS curved band [wrap of 0.7-0.8] gives a DT of 3.0-3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a trend of W-, PAT is 3.0, FT is set to 3.0 but CI is held at 4.0. Intensity is reduced to 55 knots [10-min].

The system weakened a little as it passed over North West Cape but is likely to re-intensify now that it is over open water with ocean heat content remaining high east of 110E. Once Carlos moves west of 110E it should begin to weaken under the prevailing shear as SSTs decrease.

The forecast track persists steadily to the southwest under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Carlos will be issued at 10:00 AM UTC..
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Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU (11F)
19:00 PM NZDT February 23 2011
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu, Category Three (945 hPa) located at 28.5S 176.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving south southeast at 20 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in sector from east through south to north

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in sector from east through south to north

The next Hurricane Warning from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
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2011 World Hunger and Poverty Facts and Statistics

Number of hungry people in the world - 925 million hungry people in 2010

Link



Does the world produce enough food to feed everyone?


The world produces enough food to feed everyone. World agriculture produces 17 percent more calories per person today than it did 30 years ago, despite a 70 percent population increase. This is enough to provide everyone in the world with at least 2,720 kilocalories (kcal) per person per day (FAO 2002, p.9). The principal problem is that many people in the world do not have sufficient land to grow, or income to purchase, enough food.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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