Drought in China adds pressure to world food prices

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 AM GMT on February 23, 2011

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The soil lies cracked and broken in China's Shangdong Province, thirsting for rains that will not come. China's key wheat producing region, lying just south of Beijing, has received just 12 millimeters (1/2 inch) of rain since September, according to the Chinese news service Xinhua. If no rains come during the remainder of February, it could become the worst drought in 200 years. The latest precipitation forecast from the GFS ensemble model predicts the possibility of rains of around 1/2 inch for Shandong Province early next week, but these rains would help only a little. A longer-range 2-week forecast from the operational GFS model shows little or no rain for the region from late next week well into March. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects that spring in Eastern China has an enhanced probability of being dry, with only a 20% - 25% chance that the region will see above average precipitation, and a 40% - 45% chance of below average precipitation. So the great drought will likely continue, and China's ability to feed itself may be greatly challenged this year.


Figure 1. A dried cornfield in a mountainous area of Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province, Jan. 18, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua/Zhu Zheng.


Figure 2. Drought conditions in China's Shandong Province this February have reached the "Severe" category. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

Impact on global food supplies and food prices
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the drought in north China seems to be putting pressure on wheat prices, which have been rising rapidly in the past few months. This has helped push global food prices to their highest levels since the FAO Food Price Index was created in 1990 (Figure 3.) China is the world's largest producer of wheat, and if they are forced to import large amounts of food due to continued drought, it could severely impact world food prices. However, the FAO's regional representative for Asia and the Pacific said in an interview with Reuters last month that the situation is not as severe as in 2008, when global food riots erupted. "In general, the supply/demand situation of food grains has become very tight at the moment but enough stocks means there is no cause for alarm," Konuma said. "We still maintain sufficient stocks, which is about 25 percent of annual production. As long as there are sufficient stocks, that means the world has enough food still to feed the people." However, he said that if food stocks continued to decline over the next few years, there would be cause for concern.

The record food global food prices have been partially driven by two other huge weather disasters, the Russian summer heat wave and drought of 2010, and the Australian floods of December - January 2011. Both Russia and Australia are major exporters of grain. Russia issued a ban last summer on grain exports because of their drought, which slashed the wheat harvest by 40% and damaged soils to such an extent that 10% of Russian wheat fields could not be planted this year. The Russian heat wave of 2010 is now estimated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters to be the deadliest in human history, with 55,736 deaths. The Australian floods caused at least $1.7 billion in agricultural damage, reducing their wheat crop significantly. Fortunately, bumper crops were harvested in non-flooded areas of Australia, and the winter crop harvest in country was up 19% over the previous year's crop, and was the biggest since 2003 - 2004. Australia has been struggling with severe drought in recent years that caused more agricultural damage than the floods did.


Figure 3. The global price of food between 1990 - January 2011, as measured by the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of price indices for Cereals, Oils and Fats, Sugar, Dairy, and Meat, weighted by the average export shares of each group. Food prices between 2002 - 2004 are given a benchmark value of "100". Global food prices in January 2011 were the highest since the FAO Index was established in 1990. Image credit: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Drought outlook for Northern Hemisphere summer of 2011
The spike in global food prices this winter raises the concern that a severe drought in a major grain producing region in North America, Europe, or Asia this summer could severely impact grain supplies and food prices. Fortunately, with La Niña conditions over the Eastern Pacific weakening, and possibly abating by summer, the chances for such a drought are lower than they would have been if La Niña were to stay strong into the summer. The latest precipitation forecast from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Figure 4) shows few areas of drought concern for the coming Northern Hemisphere summer. However, our skill at predicting drought months in advance is limited. For example, IRI's February 2010 forecast of precipitation for the summer of 2010 did not highlight Russia as an area of possible concern for drought, and Russia ended up having one of its worst droughts in history. IRI did highlight the Amazon as a region likely to have below-average summer rains, though, and the Amazon ended up having a 100-year drought last summer.


Figure 4. Global precipitation forecast for June, July and August of 2011, made in February 2011. Only a few scattered regions of the globe are predicted to have above-average chances of drought (yellow colors.) These areas include the Northwest U.S., Southern Brazil, and Northwest China. Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Commentary
The recent unrest in the Middle East, which has been attributed, in part, to high food prices, gives us a warning of the type of global unrest that might result in future years if the climate continues to warm as expected. A hotter climate means more severe droughts will occur. We can expect an increasing number of unprecedented heat waves and droughts like the 2010 Russian drought in coming decades. This will significantly increase the odds of a world food emergency far worse than the 2007 - 2008 global food crisis. When we also consider the world's expanding population and the possibility that peak oil will make fertilizers and agriculture much more expensive, we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, with droughts made significantly worse by climate change contributing to events that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.

I will be doing another post on Thursday or Friday.

The New York Times' Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth Blog has a more in-depth look at the food and climate change issue that I recommend.

Jeff Masters

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You know the situation with Texas is worrisome.You know as a huge history buff one of the best quotes that I ever read,and one that sticks with me is "If we dont learn from history,then history is doomed to repeat itself."I really dont think this country has become this divided in political views and ideals since the Civil War.Is that what we really want?This weather blog is just a tiny voice in the crowd but look at the division and closed mindedness thats on here.Also world economic disaster and global and polictical chaos lead to what?In 1933 it led to Adolph Hitler.People easily forget history if they never experienced it.And im afraid in this country with the pitiful state of our two major polictical parties something like this could be a real and frightening possibility.maybe we should realize that we ar all americans, and put America first.
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"We still maintain sufficient stocks, which is about 25 percent of annual production. As long as there are sufficient stocks, that means the world has enough food still to feed the people." However, he said that if food stocks continued to decline over the next few years, there would be cause for concern

Soylent Green....
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Hmmmm,Politics and Religion,Certainly won't be any arguments there!
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Doom and Gloom is in the forecast!
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The political unrest Dr. Masters talks about is due to a variety of factors. I would argue that the great surge in population over the last century or so is a bigger hurdle than global warming itself. How has this population surge been acheived? The production of hydrocarbons which has supplied the human population with the energy needed to swell its population. Now we have almost 7 billion people on this planet, and these hydrocarbons are running out. I wish more people would address this issue instead of constantly focusing on global warming, which is a by-product of the primary problem.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



It takes more faith to not believe in God then it does to believe in God, science itself in its complexity reflects the beauty and nature of God. The more I study and pursue science the more it moves me to glorify God.

i wholeheartedly disagree, and that statement reminds me a lot of the mindset that argues for 'intelligent design' as a precursor to evolution; particularly the debate of irreducibly complex systems.

you need to believe in a God first to think such a thought. it is only when at the beginning of all questioning one states 'there was a creator', that upon viewing the complexities and beauty of nature would one say those observations further the idea that there was a creator. i do not believe there was (or is), and the more i view the magnificence of this universe, the less i see there being a creator.

i think the avenue to qualifying perception has a split in the road. one path follows an idea that human's can fully comprehend this reality by their own lenses; the other path follows an idea that our lenses are skewed and reality is beyond our natural comprehension. religion follows the path where we define through the human lens, that which is all around us. science follows the path that says we need external verification to define all that is around us.

to observe with the assistance of mechanical magnifications, complex computations, and theory testing, a very different universe unfolds from the version we observed thousands of years ago. if you've never once believed in a god, there is no element in the sources of information from such assisted observations that says there is one. you have to believe first to think that way Jed.

i can see how, after fully embracing that a Creator is behind all this, it would take an act of faith to think otherwise. well, that's why there will continue to be strife between the science and religion.

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Remember to get a desk with a window seat :)


hahaha good point!

Oh I will if I can! I would try and make sure I could have a clear view of the sky as well.

I wonder if they allow meteorologists to take "observation breaks", cause I would be out getting my job clothes wet :)

When we get stormy days here in Central Florida, especially strong thunderstorm days, I always run between the computer, and looking outside, everyone always gets mad and says "make up your mind and stay with one, either outside or the radar".

I try and get as much of both as possible!
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136. Skyepony (Mod)
RecordSeason~ Electric & hybrid cars have regenerative braking that feed energy back into the battery. Saving resources by harvesting otherwise wasted energy every time the car coasts or brakes. Also with the battery set up it's really easy to charge from solar panels or a little wind turbine.

Check out these new solar carports. Create jobs, cool down parking lots, depend less on foreign oil & etc. The benefits for driving electric are far reaching if we can just get out of this oil pit..
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#1 Texas power plants emitted 244,248,050 tons of CO2 in 2009. They emitted 256,903,967 tons in 2010. According to the report, Texas power plants emitted more than 7 times the total CO2 emissions from power plants in California. The state has a favorable climate for wind energy, and yet Texas reportedly opened three new coal plants near the end of 2010.

Texas has around 29 winds farms, including the world's largest, The Roscoe Wind Farm.


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Quoting Jedkins01:



haha I love to laugh when that happens with forecasts, maybe I shouldn't laugh or that may happen a lot to me one day when my job calls for judgment calls on forecast(YIKES!)


Remember to get a desk with a window seat :)
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the storm that dropped the world record hailstone, those ranchers must have been freakin' out!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
The local mets have changed their forecast for Victoria BC... from 1-3 cm of snow.. to 25 cm of snow.. one of them must have looked out the window, there is already 6" of snow on the ground.



haha I love to laugh when that happens with forecasts, maybe I shouldn't laugh or that may happen a lot to me one day when my job calls for judgment calls on forecasts(YIKES!)
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The local mets have changed their forecast for Victoria BC... from 1-3 cm of snow.. to 25 cm of snow.. one of them must have looked out the window, there is already 6" of snow on the ground.
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Quoting Minnemike:


science is the word used to describe a search for information that correlates with reality. it is a procedural guideline to verification, the result being such that information believed in then lines up with the reality observed and unfolding on a daily basis.

science is not something tangible. it is not an idol. it is not an 'it' ironically. only people who have embraced the belief in a Creator are the ones who have these misconceptions. they have a belief in an entity that is both tangible and intangible. they have a conceptual basis for idolization and worship that defines their full knowledge base and conceptual understanding. to the believer, the questions and the answers are one in the same.

but this is not science. science cannot be worshiped. science is not an answer. it is a process to reconciling that which is information and that which is observation. the only reason this is not understood, and frequently mislabeled by religious people is that they have accepted an ultimate source of information that needs no reconciliation with observation.

simply put, they simply don't have the mental ability to comprehend that science is a process, not a religion. therefore, it is well within their comfort zone to make false statements that cannot be supported because their entire belief system is faith based. faith is belief without support. that is the very definition of faith, and why you need faith to have faith. but faith is not knowledge... get it??!



It takes more faith to not believe in God then it does to believe in God, science itself in its complexity reflects the beauty and nature of God. The more I study and pursue science the more it moves me to glorify God.

To clarify, I am not not knocking science, or its processes. I have been obsessed with science all my life. In fact I don't think enough Christians are educated enough about science or the Bible, so they then think science is somehow an enemy of the Bible. That's hardly the case. The Bible was written for man to understand as well as to seek God to live for God. The Bible is on purposely very general about scientific things, because it is not written about science. Therefore fore some creationists to say the Bible says the earth is 6000 years old and God created the earth in 6 days really isn't sound. The Bible says that a day is a thousand years and a thousand years is a day. That terminology is there because the creation in 6 days is left open to many possibilities. I choose to have an open mind and not even oppose evolution its sense. The only thing the Bible says is that man is set apart from other Creation on earth, made in Gods image.

Science is left for us to pursue and explore. Einstein had a hard time imagining God to be a personal God the way I believe, but he was very much upset with people who said he was an atheist.

Whether or not he ever came to look at God the way I do, he certainly had his mind open enough to see there is something awesome behind this vast and complex world we know as science. Science really cannot be used as a way of disproving God, when it reflects the awesome nature of God.


I don't use this to be militant against you are anything, just clarifying where I come from.
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Quoting Floodman:


Texas doesn't have the right to secede, despite what "Moneybags" Perry may think
I thought we settled this question a few years ago. Lots of monuments to that debate scattered around this area of the country.
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#1 Texas power plants emitted 244,248,050 tons of CO2 in 2009. They emitted 256,903,967 tons in 2010. According to the report, Texas power plants emitted more than 7 times the total CO2 emissions from power plants in California. The state has a favorable climate for wind energy, and yet Texas reportedly opened three new coal plants near the end of 2010.

Texas has 10 winds farms, including the world's largest, The Roscoe Wind Farm.


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Quoting Floodman:


Texas doesn't have the right to secede, despite what "Moneybags" Perry may think

True--but I say let 'em go if they really want; I have a well-worn passport that I'm certain would be honored for purposes of visiting my many family members in the Nation of Texastan. ;-)

So far as "debating" certain people here, I won't waste my time right now; I try to engage only those interested in discussing things honestly and openly, not people who have an unmovable political or religious ideology they feel needs defending. Instead, I'll just leave with the following undeniable facts:

1) The planet is warming rapidly.

2) That rapid warming is due primarily to increasing concentrations of CO2.

3) Those increasing concentrations of CO2 are due primarily to unimpeded burning of fossil fuels.

I'm still waiting for one single shred of legitimate and credible evidence that refutes any one of those three.

Ah, well...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Jed sarcasm is not the awnser if you awnser arrogance with arrogance what have you accomplished.Good healthy debate and open mindedness is a virtue.In my very unimportant opinion, a person who is closed minded with no room for change is in a sad state.No matter what life altering changes he has endured belive me I can speak of that from personal experience. But as bad as I thought i had it just one look at the documentary of DDay put it in prospective how really blessed I was at the supreme sacrafice of others.if you want a real jump start on devotion and personal drive watch Pattons speech to the 3rd army it sure will make you think.


hmm I only responded in that way to get a laugh? Maybe I can be too much of a clown sometimes.
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Without science we would be a ignorant and dark ages type society.But without faith we would be a even unrulier and desperate society.Have a good day enjoyed the discussion.

i can get behind this statement SAINTHURRIFAN. but for the record, Einstein did not split the atom... it was only the applicability of his relativity theory that enabled other scientists to discover such a feat ;)
your point remains though.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Texas might just have to recede from the Union Pat, we'll have all the jobs and let the unemployed sheep and worry warts worry about other things


Texas doesn't have the right to secede, despite what "Moneybags" Perry may think
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Jed sarcasm is not the awnser if you awnser arrogance with arrogance what have you accomplished.Good healthy debate and open mindedness is a virtue.In my very unimportant opinion, a person who is closed minded with no room for change is in a sad state.No matter what life altering changes he has endured belive me I can speak of that from personal experience. But as bad as I thought i had it just one look at the documentary of DDay put it in prospective how really blessed I was at the supreme sacrafice of others.if you want a real jump start on devotion and personal drive watch Pattons speech to the 3rd army it sure will make you think.
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115, Washington DC will probably burn where it stands if it comes to that
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Quoting TomTaylor:


Then who was the idiot warning intended for?


I didn't catch that...

That's very disrespectful, and wrong.
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Quoting kwgirl:
I have a question, How do they know how much it weighed? Is it done mathematically? I imagine you would need to know the depth as well as width and heighth to get the correct measurement.

Well, as they say, it's an estimate (30-40 metric tons), and it is based on the length, width, and height of the chunk of ice that sloughed off. (A metric ton is roughly the weight of one cubic meter of cold water, so it's not too difficult to get a rough idea of overall mass.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting RitaEvac:
114, you just starting WWIII with NEA
That is his goal. Nea, don't take the bait. You have both stated your views exhaustively on past blogs.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Good to see there are some who still have wisdom...

+1

You will be attacked for this, but who cares, that's what you expect from people bent on disproving Who made the very thing called science that they worship so much in the first place.


science is the word used to describe a search for information that correlates with reality. it is a procedural guideline to verification, the result being such that information believed in then lines up with the reality observed and unfolding on a daily basis.

science is not something tangible. it is not an idol. it is not an 'it' ironically. only people who have embraced the belief in a Creator are the ones who have these misconceptions. they have a belief in an entity that is both tangible and intangible. they have a conceptual basis for idolization and worship that defines their full knowledge base and conceptual understanding. to the believer, the questions and the answers are one in the same.

but this is not science. science cannot be worshiped. science is not an answer. it is a process to reconciling that which is information and that which is observation. the only reason this is not understood, and frequently mislabeled by religious people is that they have accepted an ultimate source of information that needs no reconciliation with observation.

simply put, they simply don't have the mental ability to comprehend that science is a process, not a religion. therefore, it is well within their comfort zone to make false statements that cannot be supported because their entire belief system is faith based. faith is belief without support. that is the very definition of faith, and why you need faith to have faith. but faith is not knowledge... get it??!
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114, you just starting WWIII with NEA
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Hey guys Ive been hearing a chorus of all kinds of frogs croaking from leopard to bullfrog all around my area lately. The thing is, Ive never heard this before, looks like I better go right an essay stating how these frogs croaking so early can be linked to GW. Oh and just to make sure my essay has supreme authority. I will request other biased GW scientists to peer review it. Therefore when it becomes peer reviewed it is elevated to a God-like status. If anyone disagrees, they are suffering from republican anti-science denial.

I will particularly ignore though, all scientists who disagree, I will try and pretend in my arrogance that there is some sort of overwhelming agreement that my essay is accurate, I will deny the voice of other scientists, and call those scientists deniers at the expense of my dogma. I will continue to shove my beliefs down others throats, yet I will get mad at anyone who mentions God around me to get their religion out of my face.

I am an open minded progressive person, I believe all GW supporters and supporters of liberal theology should have all rights. But all other people, not just republicans, but included balanced moderates, do not deserve to have their voices heard, and do not deserve to voice their scientific viewpoints. I do this because I know I am severely biased, so I pretend to be a supporter of rights, but only if they agree with me. That is because whenever someone else voices there look on things, it bothers my conscience how deceitful I am.

Long live the man-caused GW theory! It reigns supreme!
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Massive iceberg shears off after N. Zealand quake
Tue Feb 22, 11:30 pm ET

CHRISTCHURCH (AFP) - A 30 million tonne block of ice sheared off a New Zealand glacier just minutes after a violent earthquake devastated the city of Christchurch, officials said Wednesday.

The huge iceberg crashed into a lake shortly after the 6.3 magnitude tremor rocked the South Island on Tuesday and created waves up to three metres high for 30 minutes which rocked two sightseeing boats on the lake at the time.

The enormous iceberg -- estimated to weigh 30 to 40 million tonnes -- began ripping off the Tasman Glacier at Aoraki Mount Cook National Park accompanied by a loud noise which sounded like a rifle shot, a local tourism official said.

Link
I have a question, How do they know how much it weighed? Is it done mathematically? I imagine you would need to know the depth as well as width and heighth to get the correct measurement.
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As pat said the realist saw it 2000 years ago and we are trying to accomplish it as we speak.Time to start helping ourselves and put America back to work .To bad we cant let God let us borrow FDR for a while His blueprint still works.
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Oh I forgot were in a 25 billion dollar debt, nevermind
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AMY!!!!!
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Texas might just have to recede from the Union Pat, we'll have all the jobs and let the unemployed sheep and worry warts worry about other things
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If gas nears $4 a gallon before a major hurricane gets in gulf, we're screwed.
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Massive iceberg shears off after N. Zealand quake
Tue Feb 22, 11:30 pm ET

CHRISTCHURCH (AFP) - A 30 million tonne block of ice sheared off a New Zealand glacier just minutes after a violent earthquake devastated the city of Christchurch, officials said Wednesday.

The huge iceberg crashed into a lake shortly after the 6.3 magnitude tremor rocked the South Island on Tuesday and created waves up to three metres high for 30 minutes which rocked two sightseeing boats on the lake at the time.

The enormous iceberg -- estimated to weigh 30 to 40 million tonnes -- began ripping off the Tasman Glacier at Aoraki Mount Cook National Park accompanied by a loud noise which sounded like a rifle shot, a local tourism official said.

Link
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Let the war games begin
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It just keeps going up...


OIL ($/bbl)

Nymex Crude Future $97.56 up $2.14


we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.

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Climate Change Affecting Food Safety

ScienceDaily (Feb. 22, 2011) — Climate change is already having an effect on the safety of the world's food supplies and unless action is taken it's only going to get worse, a Michigan State University professor told a symposium at this year's meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Ewen Todd, an MSU professor of advertising, public relations and retailing, organized a session titled "How Climate Change Affects the Safety of the World's Food Supply" at which several nationally known experts warned that food safety is already an issue and will worsen unless climate change is confronted.

"Accelerating climate change is inevitable with implications for animal products and crops," said Todd, who also is an AAAS Fellow. "At this point, the effects of climate change on food safety are poorly understood."

However, Todd said there are already a number of examples of climate change taking its toll on the world's food supply. One is Vibrio, a pathogen typically found in warm ocean water which is now becoming more common in the north as water temperatures rise.
"It's been moving further up the coast these past few years," he said. "There was an outbreak of it near Alaska in 2005 when water temperature reached 15 degrees Celsius."
Todd also said that extreme weather -- droughts and heavy rains -- is having an impact on the world's food supply. In some areas crops are being wiped out, resulting in higher prices and other issues.
"Mycotoxins are molds that can sometimes cause illness in humans, and where you have drought and starvation there can be a mycotoxin problem," he said. "That's because people will store their meager resources of crops for longer than they should."
Speakers at the symposium included Raymond Knighton of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture; Sandra Hoffman of the USDA's Economic Research Service; and Cristina Tirado from the University of California, Los Angeles.
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Commentary
The recent unrest in the Middle East, which has been attributed, in part, to high food prices, gives us a warning of the type of global unrest that might result in future years if the climate continues to warm as expected. A hotter climate means more severe droughts will occur. We can expect an increasing number of unprecedented heat waves and droughts like the 2010 Russian drought in coming decades. This will significantly increase the odds of a world food emergency far worse than the 2007 - 2008 global food crisis. When we also consider the world's expanding population and the possibility that peak oil will make fertilizers and agriculture much more expensive, we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, with droughts made significantly worse by climate change contributing to events that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.


Here,here,,and Kudos for speaking it as the realist see it Dr. Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Fair enough neo the Creator gives us the option to choose.Maybe those people that have faith and believe which more than 90% of Americans belive in God in different names and religions.Maybe they want to see the fact that man is only man no matter how smart he is and hope and pray thier is a wiser and greater force behind everything that is.As far as science: well science has created as much fear and in the last 100 years as the fights over religion has .I would think you would agree Joseph Mengeles was a scientist.Do we need to heed his teachings.Also Albert Speer was one of the great Architects of our time his biggest design was the creation of the terrible devices that were the final solution.Albert Einstien was a great scientist.Not by his doing or choice but his splitting of the atom caused how many wars and conquest,and deaths for its science?Dr Kervorkian?Not trying to argue with you just enjoying the mature debate.I just feel you fail to realize sometimes for those that irritate you because they ignore science for thier faith,you come across to irritate with your constant worship of the flawlessness of science.Now i am a happy medium .i am a believer in God as well as science.Without science we would be a igonorant and dark ages type society.But without faith we would be a even unrulier and desperate society.Have a good day enjoyed the discussion.



Good to see there are some who still have wisdom...

+1

You will be attacked for this, but who cares, that's what you expect from people bent on disproving Who made the very thing called science that they worship so much in the first place.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
6,000-Year Climate Record Suggests Longer Droughts, Drier Climate for Pacific Northwest

ScienceDaily (Feb. 21, 2011) — University of Pittsburgh-led researchers extracted a 6,000-year climate record from a Washington lake that shows that the famously rain-soaked American Pacific Northwest could not only be in for longer dry seasons, but also is unlikely to see a period as wet as the 20th century any time soon.

In a new report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team linked the longer dry spells to the intensifying El Niño/La Niña climate pattern and concluded that Western states will likely suffer severe water shortages as El Niño/La Niña wields greater influence on the region.
The researchers analyzed a sediment core from Castor Lake in north central Washington to plot the region's drought history since around 4,000 BCE and found that wet and dry cycles during the past millennium have grown longer. The team attributed this recent deviation to the irregular pressure and temperature changes brought on by El Niño/La Niña. At the same time, they reported, the wet cycle stretching from the 1940s to approximately 2000 was the dampest in 350 years.
Lead researcher Mark Abbott, a Pitt professor of geology and planetary science, said those unusually wet years coincide with the period when western U.S. states developed water-use policies. "Western states happened to build dams and water systems during a period that was unusually wet compared to the past 6,000 years," he said. "Now the cycle has changed and is trending drier, which is actually normal. It will shift back to wet eventually, but probably not to the extremes seen during most of the 20th century."

Link



poor pacific northwesterners!
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Fair enough neo the Creator gives us the option to choose.Maybe those people that have faith and believe which more than 90% of Americans belive in God in different names and religions.Maybe they want to see the fact that man is only man no matter how smart he is and hope and pray thier is a wiser and greater force behind everything that is.As far as science: well science has created as much fear and in the last 100 years as the fights over religion has .I would think you would agree Joseph Mengeles was a scientist.Do we need to heed his teachings.Also Albert Speer was one of the great Architects of our time his biggest design was the creation of the terrible devices that were the final solution.Albert Einstien was a great scientist.Not by his doing or choice but his splitting of the atom caused how many wars and conquest,and deaths for its science?Dr Kervorkian?Not trying to argue with you just enjoying the mature debate.I just feel you fail to realize sometimes for those that irritate you because they ignore science for thier faith,you come across to irritate with your constant worship of the flawlessness of science.Now i am a happy medium .i am a believer in God as well as science.Without science we would be a igonorant and dark ages type society.But without faith we would be a even unrulier and desperate society.Have a good day enjoyed the discussion.
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Southern Calif. Weather Report:

cloudy with a chance of SQUAWK!!!!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

If you miss seeing snow.. and I am not one of those people.. go look at the Koi cam link on my blog :(





looks like winter to me is the pond freezing over can't tell on the cams by the way it looks like the driveway needs to be shovel :)
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6,000-Year Climate Record Suggests Longer Droughts, Drier Climate for Pacific Northwest

ScienceDaily (Feb. 21, 2011) — University of Pittsburgh-led researchers extracted a 6,000-year climate record from a Washington lake that shows that the famously rain-soaked American Pacific Northwest could not only be in for longer dry seasons, but also is unlikely to see a period as wet as the 20th century any time soon.

In a new report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team linked the longer dry spells to the intensifying El Niño/La Niña climate pattern and concluded that Western states will likely suffer severe water shortages as El Niño/La Niña wields greater influence on the region.
The researchers analyzed a sediment core from Castor Lake in north central Washington to plot the region's drought history since around 4,000 BCE and found that wet and dry cycles during the past millennium have grown longer. The team attributed this recent deviation to the irregular pressure and temperature changes brought on by El Niño/La Niña. At the same time, they reported, the wet cycle stretching from the 1940s to approximately 2000 was the dampest in 350 years.
Lead researcher Mark Abbott, a Pitt professor of geology and planetary science, said those unusually wet years coincide with the period when western U.S. states developed water-use policies. "Western states happened to build dams and water systems during a period that was unusually wet compared to the past 6,000 years," he said. "Now the cycle has changed and is trending drier, which is actually normal. It will shift back to wet eventually, but probably not to the extremes seen during most of the 20th century."

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.