January global temperatures 11th - 17th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on February 18, 2011

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January 2011 was the globe's 17th warmest January on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January the 11th warmest on record. January 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 29th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were average,the 16th or 17th coolest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to the on-going moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. Notably, the January 2011 global ocean temperature was the warmest on record among all Januaries when La Niña was present. The ten warmest Januaries occurred during either El Niño or neutral conditions.


FIgure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

The coldest places on the globe in January, relative to average, were Mongolia, Southern Siberia, and China. China recorded its coldest January since 1977, and second coldest January since national records began in 1961. Record or near-record warm conditions were experienced in Northeast Canada, Western Greenland and Northern Siberia.

A cold and dry January for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., January temperatures were the 37th coldest in the 116-year record, and it was the coldest January since 1994, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Despite the heavy snows in the Northeast U.S., January was the 9th driest January since 1895. This was largely due to the fact that the Desert Southwest was very dry, with New Mexico recording its driest January, and Arizona and Nevada their second driest.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic lowest on record during January
January 2011 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This was the second consecutive month of record low extent. Satellite records extend back to 1979. The area of missing ice was about twice the size of Texas, or 60% the size of the Mediterranean Sea. Ice was notably absent in Northeast Canada and Western Greenland, and Hudson Bay did not freeze over until mid-January, more than a month later than usual. This was the latest freeze-up on record, and led to record warmth over much of Northeast Canada. Frobisher Bay on Baffin Island had its warmest January on record, 1.1°C above the previous record set in 1985. Weather records for the station go back to 1942.

An incredible 110° temperature swing in 1 week in Oklahoma
The temperature in Bartlesville, Oklahoma shot up to a record 82°F yesterday, just seven days after the city hit -28°F on February 10. This 110°F temperature change has to be one of the greatest 1-week temperature swings in U.S. history. The -31°F that was recorded in nearby Nowata last week has now been certified by the National Weather Service as the new official all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. What's more, the 27 inches of snow that fell on Spavinaw, Oklahoma during the February 8 - 9 snowstorm set a new official state 24-hour snowfall record. The previous record was 26", set on March 28, 2009, in Woodward and Freedom.

A 100+ degree temperature change in just six days is a phenomenally rare event. I checked the records for over twenty major cities in the Midwest in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana, and could not find any examples of a 100-degree temperature swing in so short a period of time. The closest I came was a 108° swing in temperature in fourteen days at Valentine, Nebraska, from -27°F on March 11, 1998 to 82°F on March 25, 1998. Valentine also had a 105°F temperature swing in fifteen days from November 29, 1901 (71°F) to December 14, 1901 (-34°F.) Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, lists the world record for fastest 24-hour change in temperature as the 103°F warm-up from -54° to 49° that occurred on January 14 - 15, 1972, during a chinook wind in Lowe, Montana. This week's remarkable roller coaster ride of temperatures in Oklahoma is truly a remarkable event that has few parallels in recorded history.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos' deluge abates
Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Carlos has now dissipated, and brought only an additional 1.50" (38 mm) of rain yesterday to Darwin. Over the past four days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 26.87" (682.6 mm) of rain on Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain well offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.


Figure 2. Solar flare of February 15, 2011, as captured by the SOHO and SDO spacecraft. Image credit: NASA.

Space weather: biggest solar flare in 4 years
The strongest solar flare in more than four years erupted on the sun at 0156 UTC on Tuesday, when giant sunspot 1158 unleashed an X2-class eruption. X-class flares are the strongest type of x-ray flare, and this week's flare is the first X-class flare of the new 11-year sunspot cycle 24, which began in 2009 - 2010. The flare was accompanied by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which means that a portion of the sun's atmosphere was ripped away and thrown into space. High-energy particles from the CME arrived at Earth at 01 UTC this morning, and sky watchers at high northern latitudes may be able to see auroras over the coming few nights. Consult NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center or spaceweather.com for updates.

Jeff Masters

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608. BahaHurican
5:02 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting BtnTx:
Wow, some people actually eat at McDonalds!
I only eat the fries, I swear. And I do the drive-through with my car turned off....

Thanks 4 the McCartney tune, Pat... really hit the spot...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:28 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Link Confirmed Between Warming and Heavy Storms
By Stephen Leahy

UXBRIDGE, Canada, Feb 16, 2011 (IPS) - Human-induced heating of the planet has already made rainfall more intense, leading to more severe floods, researchers announced Wednesday.

Two new studies document significant impacts with just a fraction of the heating yet to come from the burning of fossil fuels. Fortunately, another new report shows the world can end its addiction to climate-wrecking fossil-fuel energy by 2050.

"Warmer air contains more moisture and leads to more extreme precipitation," said Francis Zwiers of the University of Victoria.

Extreme precipitation and flooding over the entire northern hemisphere increased by seven percent between 1951 and 1999 as a result of anthropogenic global warming. That represents a "substantial change", Zwiers told IPS, and more than twice the increase projected by climate modeling.

Zwiers and Xuebin Zhang of Environment Canada used observations from over 6,000 weather stations to measure the impact of climate warming on the intensity of extreme precipitation for the first time. The study was published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

The planet is currently 0.8 degrees C hotter from the burning of fossil fuels. However, global temperatures had not yet started to increase in 1951, the first year of rainfall data Zwiers and Xuebin examined. By 1999, global temperatures had climbed by about 0.6 degrees C. The average temperature increase over that 50-year period is relatively small compared to the present but major impacts have been documented in terms of storm and flood damage even with this small increase in temperatures.

This suggests that the Earth's climatic system may be more sensitive to small temperature increases than previously believed.

The global costs of extreme weather events shot up from less than five billion dollars a year during the 1950s to 45 billion dollars a year during the 1990s, according to Munich Re, a major reinsurance company in Germany. Not all of this increase is due to climate change. Some is due to population and infrastructure growth and better disaster reporting. However, the number of significant floods has tripled in the past 30 years.

Those costs came during a time when the planet was cooler than present - a period of "relatively weak anthropogenic forcing", Zwiers said. But as temperatures climbed, there was a sharp increase in intense rainfall events during the 1990s, suggesting an acceleration in flooding and damaging rainfall. Zwiers said it is too soon to know if the 1990s increase represents a new trend.

Global temperatures are guaranteed to increase further from today's 0.8 degrees C to at least 1.0 degree C by 2020. This will boost the amount of water vapour and heat in the atmosphere, which are the fuel for even more and harder rainfall events.

Scientists have long known extreme events would increase with a hotter planet but have maintained that a single flood or storm could not be explicitly linked to climate change. Now another study published Wednesday in Nature lays odds they've found the "smoking gun" behind Britain's severe flooding in 2000.

During the fall of 2000, the UK experienced some of its most damaging floods and wettest weather since the first records began in 1766. Using the distributed computing power from thousands of personal computers around the world, researchers at Oxford University and others determined that human emissions of greenhouse gases had more than doubled the odds of the devastating 2000 flood.

"We simulated a parallel world in which there were no greenhouse gas emissions," said lead researcher Pardeep Pall of Oxford University.

Thousand of computer simulations were tested against reality and the results revealed that climate change more than doubled the odds of the 2000 flooding, Pall said at a press conference.

"This study was 20 times more demanding than anything we're tried before. It is not easy to precisely say what caused what when it comes to a single weather event," added Myles Allen of Oxford University.

The UK Met Office is developing new methods for assessing extreme weather events and determining the factors that caused them in hopes of improving predictions. In future, the Met Office may be able to predict such events and explain why they happened, said Allen.

With human-induced heating of the planet expected by many to reach at least 2.4 degrees C in the coming decades, extreme events of the recent past will seem very tame indeed. However, this calamitous future can be avoided with a rapid transition to a renewable global energy system.

A detailed new study demonstrates that 95 percent of global energy needs can be meet with renewables utilising today's technologies alone.

The Energy Report by Ecofys, a leading energy consulting firm in the Netherlands, is the first to show that 95 percent of all energy can be renewable by 2050, while offering comfortable lifestyles for a growing global population and allowing a tripling of the global economy.

"We can do this by using and improving the technologies that are already at hand," said Manon Janssen, CEO of Ecofys. "It is a business opportunity, as much as it is a technological challenge."

Ecofys spent two years preparing the report in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund.

Paramount will be major increases in energy efficiency in all sectors so that by 2050 energy use is 15 percent less than the energy use in 2005. And this is all possible with existing technology, the report noted. Emissions from burning fossil fuels for energy will fall more than 80 percent by 2050, offering a real chance of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees C, the report said.

While the transition will be costly, the savings from lower energy use will amount to a five- to six-trillion-dollar "windfall" for humanity by 2050.

The move to renewable energy is already well underway in places like California, where the cost of generating solar energy is now as cheap as fossil fuels, said Justin Gerdes, a California journalist specialising in energy issues.

"Renewables already benefit from lower upfront costs to install - especially onshore wind - compared to huge one- gigawatt fossil fuel or nuclear plants," Gerdes said. "And, then, of course, the renewables have no cost for fuel."

And this is happening in the U.S., where climate change is a non-issue politically and there is no price or cap on carbon emissions.

"In short, this can happen," Gerdes said.

(END)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
606. BtnTx
2:23 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:


Duh. Go back and read your post. It makes no reference to starving people.
You are right. Nevermind. Not having a good night. I stand corrected.
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 890
605. Patrap
2:21 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
er,,pssssssssst

New BLOG entry by Dr. Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
601. EYEStoSEA
2:14 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Keeper, I'm waiting on a model....what's coming down?
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
600. GeoffreyWPB
2:12 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Yes…God is illogical….That makes sense. A human trait.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
599. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:12 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
598. BtnTx
2:11 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:


Millions every day. Get a grip.
And millions are starving: Get a Grip
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 890
597. gordydunnot
2:08 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Why should God work in a logical way. That would be defiant to all those that need to justify to the rest, the sins of man. Remember man has a free will.Does that imply his ability to renounce the will of God, I think not. God doesn't play dice with the universe.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:07 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting alfabob:


If something like this were to happen there would be no way to prepare. Lots of zombie satellites would be in orbit and most methods of communication would be out. I generally take the route of not paying attention to unlikely events such as these, where there is no way to actually prepare.




My question to you is how is Earth going to feed 6 billion people by 2020? Most people don't realize that our food situation is approaching a critical point much quicker than previously predicted. I was attempting to fund-raise money to build aeroponic greenhouses for high efficiency food production (and flood / drought resistance), although I've come to realize that 90%+ of individuals are completely useless and would rather watch tv or get drunk than secure our food sources. Guess they will just have to starve like the rest of the undeveloped world.

IQALUIT — Nunavut's MP and officials from the Northwest Company went into damage control mode Tuesday after photos of expensive food at a Northern Store in Arctic Bay caused outrage in the North and awe in the South.


Among the items pictured were a $13 bag of spaghetti, a $29 jar of Cheez Whiz, a $77 bag of breaded chicken and a $38 bottle of cranberry juice.


David Anderson, the manager of major market stores for the Northwest Co., told a meeting of Baffin mayors in Iqaluit that prices on those items went up when the supply shipped last summer by sealift ran out.



Read it on Global News: Arctic communities choking on sky-high food prices
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
594. BtnTx
2:03 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Wow, some people actually eat at McDonalds!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 890
593. Patrap
1:59 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
When In the USMC Chow line,,I remember getting nervous as the Line got closer to the Steaks,,and then Suddenly they ran out and some got Fried Veal Patties instead.


Such sadness from tough guys was always Phun to observe...,

As I chomped on the last Ribeye across from the Guy who got the first Fried Veal Slider.


Urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp..





Hey Dude, no cutting in !
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
592. geepy86
1:59 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I like grits, bacon and eggs for breakfast.

Yep
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1701
591. scott39
1:56 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I think when a McDonald's hamburger costs what a pound of Kobe beef costs now, minds may be changed. You think people are complaining about Taco Bell using filler now? Wait until there's not a speck of beef in anything that costs less than $100 a serving.
Now that would really suck!! I love my McDouble for a buck! See Im part of the problem too. LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
590. Patrap
1:55 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Banned on the run
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
588. pipelines
1:51 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Argument on evolution? really? If you even have a basic understanding of reproduction and gene mutation, common sense will tell you that evolution is not only a fact, but happens everyday..... I'll go even further and say that it is impossible for evolution to not occur given how our genetics work (our = the animal kingdom, not so much humans).
Member Since: July 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227
587. gordydunnot
1:51 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
God bless the man who got his own. Signed Blood Sweat and Tears.No plagiarism intended.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
586. scott39
1:50 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting Patrap:



I best stash some of my Best Chianti and some fava beans then.
LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
584. Neapolitan
1:46 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Some of those flavors sound good. I never see much of the media, reporting on a food crisis in this worlds very near future. I read that we will have to produce more food in the next 40 years than what was produced in the last 8000! I think this is the USA is the greatest country in the world, but lets face it, our economy is built on waste and that includes food. Our Country is on top of the food chain and I dont know what will change that mindset,to help in the future?

I think when a McDonald's hamburger costs what a pound of Kobe beef costs now, minds may be changed. You think people are complaining about Taco Bell using filler now? Wait until there's not a speck of beef in anything that costs less than $100 a serving.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
582. scott39
1:38 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we start eating each other
Go for the Hams first--They are the best!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
581. scott39
1:36 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I've traveled quite a bit in South America along with a little in Africa, and have eaten lots of insects: dried, fried, roasted, stewed, ground, powdered, sweetened, hot and spicy, pureed into soup, whatever. Yes, it sounds disgusting at first, but to an outsider, it's really no more disgusting than slaughtering a large animal, grinding its muscle fibers to an even consistency, shaping them into patties, grilling them, and eating them between two slices of bread. ;-) It's all relative...
Some of those flavors sound good. I never see much of the media, reporting on a food crisis in this worlds very near future. I read that we will have to produce more food in the next 40 years than what was produced in the last 8000! I think this is the USA is the greatest country in the world, but lets face it, our economy is built on waste and that includes food. Our Country is on top of the food chain and I dont know what will change that mindset,to help in the future?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
580. EYEStoSEA
1:35 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Hello all, hope all had a great weekend. Been beautiful here in Ms. The Daytona 500 was great, although my guys didn't win....and LONG LIVE the "Classic View".......:}
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
579. Patrap
1:33 AM GMT on February 21, 2011



I best stash some of my Best Chianti and some fava beans then.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:30 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting scott39:
How is the Earth going to feed 8 Billion people by 2050?
we start eating each other
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
577. Patrap
1:28 AM GMT on February 21, 2011

Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased


The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.



Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
576. Patrap
1:24 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Sensationalism of a Solar Flare.

Fascinating.



www.solarcycle24.com

Solar Update - Huge Sunspot 1158 which produced Cycle 24's first X-Class Flare is rotating onto the western limb and will soon be out of direct earth view.

Sunspots 1161 + 1162 persist in the northern hemisphere and there is a chance for M-Class flares.

Sunspot 1161 +1162 (Saturday)



Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Feb 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1161 (N11W28) grew slightly in areal coverage and maintained
a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1162 (N18W32) remained
stable throughout the period. Both regions produced C-class
activity and Region 1161 produced a long duration B6 event at
20/1837Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (21-23 February). Regions 1161
and 1162 are both capable of producing M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (21-23
February).

III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
575. scott39
1:23 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:
There you go. This has not been peer reviewed and comes from a newspaper so therefore is of no relevance of course.

Scientists warn of $2,000bn solar ‘Katrina’

By Clive Cookson in Washington

Published: February 20 2011 17:50 | Last updated: February 20 2011 17:50

The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn.

Senior officials responsible for policy on solar storms – also known as space weather – in the US, UK and Sweden urged more preparedness at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Scientists project humans into avatars - Feb-17
Listen to the FT Science podcast - Jun-03
Sun throws new light on global warming - Oct-07
A disastrous truth - Jan-21
Governments warned on cyber crime - Jan-17
Jamming of GPS signals threatens vital services - Feb-23

“We have to take the issue of space weather seriously,” said Sir John Beddington, UK chief scientist. “The sun is coming out of a quiet period, and our vulnerability has increased since the last solar maximum [around 2000].”

“Predict and prepare should be the watchwords,” agreed Jane Lubchenco, head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “So much more of our technology is vulnerable than it was 10 years ago.”

A solar storm starts with an eruption of super-hot gas travelling out from the sun at speeds of up to 5m miles an hour. Electrically charged particles hit earth’s atmosphere 20 to 30 hours later, causing electromagnetic havoc.

Last week’s solar storm may have been the biggest since 2007, but it was relatively small in historical terms.

It caused some radio communications problems and minor disruption of civil aviation as airlines routed flights away from the polar regions, said Dr Lubchenco.

A more extreme storm can shut down communications satellites for many hours – or even cause permanent damage to their components. On the ground, the intense magnetic fluctuations can induce surges in power lines, leading to grid failures such as the one that blacked out the whole of Quebec in 1989.

The 11-year cycle of solar activity is quite variable and the present one is running late, with the next maximum expected in 2013.

The peak was not expected to be very strong but that should not cause complacency, said Tom Bogdan, director of the US Space Weather Prediction Center.

The most intense solar storm on record, which ruined much of the world’s newly installed telegraph network in 1859, took place during an otherwise weak cycle. An 1859-type storm today could knock out the world’s information, communications and electricity distribution systems, at a cost estimated by the US government at $2,000bn.

In terms of terrestrial vulnerability, the biggest change since the 2000 peak is that the world has become more dependent on global positioning system satellites – and not just for navigation. The world’s mobile phone networks depend on ultra-precise GPS time signals for their co-ordination.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
Ok, So how do we better prepare for such an event?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
574. Neapolitan
1:23 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Ive eaten Chocolate covered crickets before. They were pretty tasty. The developing countries are the ones that will suffer even more. It takes 7 pounds of grain to make 1 pound of meat and about 3 pounds to make eggs and milk. I wonder how long it would take to deplete our supply of insects? It would take alot of insects for this big boy to eat! LOL

I've traveled quite a bit in South America along with a little in Africa, and have eaten lots of insects: dried, fried, roasted, stewed, ground, powdered, sweetened, hot and spicy, pureed into soup, whatever. Yes, it sounds disgusting at first, but to an outsider, it's really no more disgusting than slaughtering a large animal, grinding its muscle fibers to an even consistency, shaping them into patties, grilling them, and eating them between two slices of bread. ;-) It's all relative...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
573. hcubed
1:19 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Definition of "abiogenesis" (noun)

1. the now discredited theory that living organisms can arise spontaneously from inanimate matter; spontaneous generation.

"...the hypothetical process by which living organisms develop from nonliving matter; also, the archaic theory that utilizes this process to explain the origin of life. Pieces of cheese and bread wrapped in rags and left in a dark corner, for example, were thus thought to produce mice, according to this theory, because after several weeks, there were mice in the rags. Many believed in spontaneous generation because it explained such occurrences as the appearance of maggots on decaying meat..."

Well, that's what the observations told them...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
570. scott39
1:10 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

From today's Wall Street Journal

"Could beetles, dragonfly larvae and water bug caviar be the meat of the future? As the global population booms and demand strains the world's supply of meat, there's a growing need for alternate animal proteins. Insects are high in protein, B vitamins and minerals like iron and zinc, and they're low in fat. Insects are easier to raise than livestock, and they produce less waste. Insects are abundant. Of all the known animal species, 80% walk on six legs; over 1,000 edible species have been identified. And the taste? It's often described as 'nutty'." (Article...)

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

We can raise them on spacious bugmeat farms spread out along the Gulf Coast of Tennessee...
Ive eaten Chocolate covered crickets before. They were pretty tasty. The developing countries are the ones that will suffer even more. It takes 7 pounds of grain to make 1 pound of meat and about 3 pounds to make eggs and milk. I wonder how long it would take to deplete our supply of insects? It would take alot of insects for this big boy to eat! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
569. GeoffreyWPB
1:09 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Rest in Peace Uncle Leo...



Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
568. PcolaDan
1:08 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I like grits, bacon and eggs for breakfast.

+1
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
567. hcubed
1:06 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
About that Journal article, here's the link:

THE GREAT LOUISIANA
HURRICANE OF AUGUST 1812


Abstract

Major hurricanes are prominent meteorological hazards of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. However, the official modern record of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones starts at 1851, and it does not provide a comprehensive measure of the frequency and magnitude of major hurricanes. Vast amounts of documentary weather data extend back several centuries, but many of these have not yet been fully utilized for hurricane reconstruction. These sources include weather diaries, ship logbooks, ship protests, and newspapers from American, British, and Spanish archives. A coordinated effort, utilizing these historical sources, has reconstructed a major hurricane in August 1812, which is the closest to ever pass by New Orleans, Louisiana, including Hurricane Katrina. The storm became a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea, passed south of Jamaica as a tropical storm, and then strengthened to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall about 65 km southeast of New Orleans and passed just to the west of the city. Historical storm surge and damage reports indicate it as a major hurricane at landfall. Given that conditions during 1812 include having lower sea level, higher land elevation prior to human-induced subsidence, and more extensive wetlands, a recurrence of such a major hurricane would likely have a greater detrimental societal impact than that of Hurricane Katrina. The 1812 hurricane study provides an example of how historical data can be utilized to reconstruct past hurricanes in a manner that renders them directly comparable with those within our modern record.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
566. GeoffreyWPB
12:59 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
I like grits, bacon and eggs for breakfast.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
565. Xyrus2000
12:57 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting hcubed:


And in creation's place is the idea that all life developed from a single cell.

A single cell that turned into both plant life and animal life.

A single cell that evolved into both skeletal and exo-skeletal creatures.

A single cell that formed both warm-blooded and cold blooded animals.

A single cell that allowed creatures to both swim and fly.

Where's the fossil record that shows this orderly progression from one to the next? Plant life first, then animal life?

Herbivores, omnivores or carnivores first?

What set of nature's conditions determined that an exoskeleton was better, and still kept an internal skeleton?

Seems to be a few holes in the theory.


You're initial premise is incorrect. Abiogenesis doesn't begin with cells, and neither does evolution. It took over a billion years for the first cells to appear. It's also likely that life began in multiple places spread out over time. Natural selection drove differentiation over billions of years to form more complex life forms.

You also assume that plants came first, which isn't correct. The clear delineation between plant and animal didn't happen for some time. Early life forms (eukaryotes and such) had no such distinction

The fossil record shows evolution pretty clearly over time. Is the fossil record complete? Of course not, nor will it ever be. It takes a perfect set of circumstances for fossilization to occur, and between Earth's seismic activity and weathering most organisms over the course of Earth's history have left little if any trace.

But the real test of any theory is whether or not it can explain observations and make useful predictions, which evolution does.

Now if you have a better scientific hypothesis to explain observations and make predictions without invoking magical sky wizards and such, by all means research and publish it. But you're going to need a very very very solid case to show that evolution is incorrect.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1480
563. Neapolitan
12:56 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting scott39:
How is the Earth going to feed 8 Billion people by 2050?

From today's Wall Street Journal

"Could beetles, dragonfly larvae and water bug caviar be the meat of the future? As the global population booms and demand strains the world's supply of meat, there's a growing need for alternate animal proteins. Insects are high in protein, B vitamins and minerals like iron and zinc, and they're low in fat. Insects are easier to raise than livestock, and they produce less waste. Insects are abundant. Of all the known animal species, 80% walk on six legs; over 1,000 edible species have been identified. And the taste? It's often described as 'nutty'." (Article...)

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

We can raise them on spacious bugmeat farms spread out along the Gulf Coast of Tennessee...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
562. hcubed
12:54 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
BTW - since this a tropical weather blog, thouth this story interesting:

Geographer re-creates ‘The Great Louisiana Hurricane of 1812

Geographer re-creates ‘The Great Louisiana Hurricane of 1812’

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA

Nearly 200 years before Hurricane Katrina, a major storm hit the coast of Louisiana just west of New Orleans. Because the War of 1812 was simultaneously raging, the hurricane’s strength, direction and other historically significant details were quickly forgotten or never recorded.

But a University of South Carolina geographer has reconstructed the storm, using maritime records, and has uncovered new information about its intensity, how it was formed and the track it took.

Cary Mock’s account of the “Great Louisiana Hurricane of 1812” appears in the current issue of the Journal of the American Meteorological Society, a top journal for meteorological research.

“It was a lost event, dwarfed by history itself,” said Mock, an associate professor in the College of Arts and Sciences. “Louisiana was just in possession by the United States at the time, having been purchased from France only years before, and was isolated from the press.”

Mock said historians have long known a hurricane hit New Orleans on Aug. 19, 1812, but they didn’t know the meteorological details about the storm.

“Hurricane Katrina is not the worst-case scenario for New Orleans, as its strongest winds were over water east of the eye,” he said. “The 1812 hurricane was the closest to the city, passing just to the west. It wasn’t as big as Katrina, but it was stronger at landfall, probably a mid-three or four category hurricane in terms of winds.”

Detailed information about past hurricanes is critical to helping climatologists today forecast and track hurricanes. But until recently, little was known of hurricanes that occurred before the late 19th century, when weather instrumentation and record keeping became more sophisticated and standardized. Mock’s research has shed light on much of the nation’s hurricane history that has remained hidden for centuries.

“A hurricane like the one in August 1812 would rank among the worst Louisiana hurricanes in dollar damage if it occurred today,” Mock said. “Hurricane Betsy was 100 miles to the west. Katrina was to the east. A 1915 hurricane came from the south. By knowing the track and intensity, as well as storm surge, of the August 1812 hurricane, we have another worst-case-scenario benchmark for hurricanes. If a hurricane like it happened today -- and it could happen -- it would mean absolute devastation.”

Mock has spent the last decade creating a history of hurricanes and severe weather of the eastern U.S. that dates back hundreds of years. Using newspapers, plantation records, diaries and ships’ logs, he has created a database that gives scientists the longitudinal data they’ve lacked. His research has been funded by nearly $700,000 in grants from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Mock began researching the August 1812 hurricane, along with other early Louisiana hurricanes, in 2006.

Newspaper accounts, which included five from Louisiana and 17 from other states, described hourly timing of the storm’s impact, wind direction and intensity, rainfall, tide height and damage to trees and buildings.

The Orleans Gazette description of the impact of storm surge on the levees is one example:

“The levee almost entirely destroyed; the beach covered from fragments of vessels, merchandize (sic), trunks, and here and there the eye falling on a mangled corpse. In short, what a few hours before was life and property, presented to the astonished spectator only death and ruin,” the newspaper reported.

The environmental conditions of the Louisiana coast were different in 1812; the sea level was lower, elevation of the city was higher and the expanse of the wetlands far greater. These conditions would have reduced the storm surge by at least several feet, Mock said.

Some of the most valuable sources to Mock’s research were maritime records, which include ship logbooks and ship protests, records submitted by ship captains to notaries detailing damage to goods as a result of weather. Ship logs, updated hourly, include data about wind scale, wind direction and barometric pressure.

Because of the war, England bolstered its naval presence, providing Mock, the first academic researcher to conduct historical maritime climate research, with a bounty of records to help him re-create the storm’s path and intensity.

“The British Royal Navy enforced a blockade of American ports during the War of 1812,” Mock said. “The logbooks for ships located in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea had all sorts of valuable information.”

In addition to 12 British navy logbooks, he was able to use information from logbooks of the USS Enterprise and from an American merchant vessel. Ship protest records from the New Orleans Notarial Archives provided Mock with some surprising contributions.

“I was initially pretty pessimistic on what I would find in the ship protests,” Mock said. “I thought I’d find a few scraps and be in and out in two days. I was wrong. I found a trove of material and ended up going back eight times.”

Archivists presented Mock with upward of 100 books for every year, each 800 pages in length and none indexed with the word hurricane. After scouring the records, Mock uncovered nearly 50 useful items related to the 1812 hurricane, including accounts from the schooner Rebecca, which described the storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico in a protest that was filed with notary Marc Lafitte.

It described a 4 p.m. heavy gale that increased to a perfect hurricane wind, with the shifting of winds by noon the next day. The shift of winds from the northeast to the northwest told Mock the storm track passed to the east of the Rebecca.

Using the logs and protests, Mock was able to correlate the precise location of ships with the hourly weather and create a map of the storm’s path through the Gulf of Mexico.

“Its initial approach was toward Mississippi, but then it turned northwest toward Louisiana as it approached landfall in the afternoon on Aug. 19,” Mock said. “The USS Enterprise had the most detailed wind observations at New Orleans. A change in winds to the southwest around local midnight tells me that the storm center skimmed as little as five kilometers to the west of New Orleans.”

To further understand the hurricane’s formation and dissipation, Mock reviewed records stretching north to Ohio and east to South Carolina. Included among them were meteorological records by James Kershaw in Camden, S.C., which are part of the collections of USC’s South Caroliniana Library.

“I wanted to collect data from a wide area to understand the weather patterns, pressure systems and the very nature of the 1812 hurricane,” Mock said. “A better understanding of hurricanes of the past for a wide area provides a better understanding of hurricane formation and their tracks in the future.”

***********************************
More pictures listed at the site.

I'm going to try and find the link to the Journal of the American Meteorological Society, and post it here.

Just one more hurricane track to add to the history.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
561. scott39
12:51 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
How is the Earth going to feed 8 Billion people by 2050?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
560. scott39
12:47 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah the push of warm air has begun the cold winter this season for you is done
What about Lower Al?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
559. bappit
12:44 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
Funny, those ice cores also store information about previous solar storms. Wikipedia:

Ice cores contain thin nitrate-rich layers that can be used to reconstruct a history of past events before reliable observations. These show evidence that events of this magnitude — as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect — occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.[3] Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6031
558. bappit
12:40 AM GMT on February 21, 2011
The Carrington Event listed in Wikipedia as the Solar Storm of 1859. The Doc blogged on it a while back.

From Wikipedia:

On September 1%u20132, 1859, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, most notably over the Caribbean; also noteworthy were those over the Rocky Mountains that were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[4]

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed in some cases even shocking telegraph operators.[5] Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire.[6] Some telegraph systems appeared to continue to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.[7]
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6031

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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