-28° to 72° in 6 days: a wild ride in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on February 17, 2011

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The plants and animals of northeast Oklahoma are officially freaking out. Cold air pouring in behind last week's remarkable snowstorm over northeast Oklahoma brought unprecedented cold to the state on February 10, with a bone-chilling -31°F recorded at Nowata and -28°F at Bartlesville. These were the coldest temperatures ever measured in Oklahoma. But what a difference a week makes! Yesterday afternoon, just six days after experiencing -28°F, Bartlesville hit 72°F--an incredible 100°F temperature swing in just six days. Nearby Ponca City, which hit -25°F six days previously, hit 75°F yesterday, also achieving a 100°F temperature swing in just six days.


Figure 1. Record snows of 25" piled up in northeast Oklahoma near Afton on February 9, 2011. The fresh coasting of snow, which is a very excellent emitter of infrared radiation to space, enabled temperatures in Northeast Oklahoma to plunge to record lows on the morning of February 10. Image credit: wunderphotographer Bladerider.

A 100+ degree temperature change in just six days is a phenomenally rare event. I checked the records for over twenty major cities in the Midwest in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana, and could not find any examples of a 100-degree temperature swing in so short a period of time. The closest I came was a 108° swing in temperature in fourteen days at Valentine, Nebraska, from -27°F on March 11, 1998 to 82°F on March 25, 1998. Valentine also had a 105°F temperature swing in fifteen days from November 29, 1901 (71°F) to December 14, 1901 (-34°F.) Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, lists the world record for fastest 24-hour change in temperature as the 103°F warm-up from -54° to 49° that occurred on January 14 - 15, 1972, during a chinook wind in Lowe, Montana. This week's remarkable roller coaster ride of temperatures in Oklahoma is truly a remarkable event that has few parallels in recorded history.

Darwin sets its all-time 24-hour rainfall record
Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Over the past three days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 25.37" (644.6 mm) of rain on the Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Carlos has moved slowly inland today, and continues to dump rain on Darwin, but these rains will gradually subside over the next few days as the storm weakens and moves farther inland. Not surprisingly, the rains have triggered major flooding in the Darwin area. The heavy rains in Darwin are due to the very slow motion of the storm, which has been able to keep a significant portion of its circulation over the warm 30°C (86°F) waters off the coast. These water temperatures are near normal for this time of year. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Carlos taken at 14:35 UTC on February 17, 2011. Spiral bands from Tropical Storm Carlos were rotating clockwise onto shore near Darwin, adding to that city's record rainfall totals. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.



Carlos' deluge add to the misery of flood-weary Australia, which has suffered from some of its greatest natural disasters in history in 2011. Earlier this month, Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi smashed into Queensland with 155 mph winds, making it the strongest hurricane to hit Queensland since at least 1918. Yasi was the second most expensive tropical cyclone ever to hit Australia, with damages currently estimated near $3 billion. Australia is still reeling from torrential deluges that affected the states of Queensland and Victoria November - January, triggering flooding that caused the most expensive natural disaster in Australian history. Damage estimates of the flood are speculative, but range from $10 - $30 billion. The floods were spawned by the rainiest September - November (spring) and December in Queensland's history, driven in part by La Niña-enhanced sea surface temperatures along the coast that were the warmest on record. However, all rivers in the flooded eastern half of Queensland have now fallen below flood level. Rainfall amounts in the coming week are expected to be in the 1 - 4 inch range, which should not cause any significant new flooding problems.

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza makes a 2nd landfall in Madagascar
On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for six deaths, has left 15,000 homeless, and has destroyed 8,500 buildings. After re-emerging over the waters of the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, Bingiza re-intensified, and made a second landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar early today as a tropical storm. Bingiza is expected to dissipate over Madagascar tomorrow, but not before dumping very heavy rains capable of causing additional flooding problems on Madagascar's deforested mountain slopes.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Bingiza making its second landfall over Madagascar at 14 UTC on February 17, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. According to an email I received from Sebastien Langlade of the tropical cyclone forecasting office on La Reunion Island, January 2011 was the first January since accurate records began in 1998 that the Southwest Indian Ocean failed to record a single tropical storm. The only other storm in the basin so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza was the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.

Jeff Masters

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205. NttyGrtty
4:50 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
Blue sky, 65 degrees with a light southerly breeze. Stay at work or take the afternoon off and head to the golf course?...Hmmmmm, conflicted
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 828
204. Midweststorm
3:08 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
@Xyrus2000 : Excellent post definately one of the best I have seen on here on that particular subject. it has a lot of similar parallels to AGW.

Other than that, its a decent weather day here in Kansas City, though 15-20 degrees cooler for highs today (and looks to be ugly this weekend). anyone know if the hurricane outlook has been posted from the docs in CSU yet? I havent had much time to keep up with weather outside of snow storms here :)
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 98
203. hurricanejunky
2:36 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
It looks like AGW denialists have a friend and a champion in Montana. House Bill 549, introduced by newbie Representative Joe Read, says the following:

NEW SECTION. Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
  1. The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
  2. The legislature finds:
    1. global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
    2. reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
    3. global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.

So, to summarize: only by spewing even more carbon dioxide Montana's economy grow; and warmer weather sounds absolutely peachy.

The only problem with this bill is, of course, the fact that it's based on stupidity, shortsightedness, greed, arrogance, and a complete ignorance of science. Other than that, however, it's fine. And I suppose some props are in order; at least the clowns in Big Sky Country have given up on the denialist platform of "It's not warming!" Not that that gives me much hope...


UGH. That's disturbing but not surprising.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
202. hurricanejunky
2:16 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You know, a long time ago people were told, and they believed, that smoking was good for them. The stars made smoking glamorous. Commercials implied that you would be more of man. The tobacco companies spent a lot of money to make sure the general public believed smoking was a good thing.

But do you know who started to think that smoking wasn't a good thing? Doctors and scientists. Study after study and research article after research article came out showing increasingly bad news for tobacco smokers.

And who did the public listen to? The commercials. The billboards. The stars. The companies. They even got their own "doctors" and "scientists" to show that smoking was still a good thing. Of course, the studies produced by these charlatans were a joke, and just about every real doctor and scientist investigating the matter knew this, but the people didn't want to hear it. And of course, the elected reps of big tobacco states weren't going to stand for the demeaning of their state's big cash cow.

It took decades. Having those big stars they looked up to dying of cancer and looking 30 years older than they should finally had people starting to get the message. And even now, despite all the known dangers and issues, tobacco use is still one of the leading causes of preventable death in the world according to the WHO.

So what is the moral of this story? If your guessing big corp conspiracy theory, you're wrong. The moral of this story is that a lot of people would rather believe a happy lie than a terrible truth, no matter how much proof or evidence you show them.

So JFLORIDA, it won't matter how much evidence there is. It doesn't matter how many warning signs are out there, or how much peer-reviewed research has been done, or how many world recognized science organizations agree. When someone has couched their position in faith and fantasy, there is nothing that will convince them otherwise. Just look at the Birthers, or the Truthers, or the moon landing hoaxers. No amount of reason or logic will prevail.

The combined climate science community has given its equivalent of the Surgeon General's Warning. It remains to be seen whether or not it is listened to.

And if current budget proposals are anything to go by, it isn't being listened to. Se la vi.


WOW!! You REALLY hit the nail on the head with this post!! +100,000...couldn't have said it better myself. Very insightful and sadly true. Try to limit the number of these posts, however, as I am trying to avoid depression. LOL!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
201. Neapolitan
1:53 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
It looks like AGW denialists have a friend and a champion in Montana. House Bill 549, introduced by newbie Representative Joe Read, says the following:

NEW SECTION. Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
  1. The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
  2. The legislature finds:
    1. global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
    2. reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
    3. global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.

So, to summarize: only by spewing even more carbon dioxide Montana's economy grow; and warmer weather sounds absolutely peachy.

The only problem with this bill is, of course, the fact that it's based on stupidity, shortsightedness, greed, arrogance, and a complete ignorance of science. Other than that, however, it's fine. And I suppose some props are in order; at least the clowns in Big Sky Country have given up on the denialist platform of "It's not warming!" Not that that gives me much hope...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
200. biff4ugo
1:15 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
100% : if it ain't man-made, it ain't AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.

Does that mean that algae blooms aren't man made since we don't fertilize our lakes, just our lawns next to the lakes?

Parts of Florida are having control burn bonanzas, thanks to a wet la nina winter. We got ash snow yesterday.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1559
198. BahaHurican
12:07 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
You are trapped underwater. Common sense tells you to swim as hard as you can for the surface - after all, that's where the air is. Someone is trying to push you down, down into the depths where you will drown. You fight against them. After all, it's only common sense that you can't get up to the top if you go down instead.

And so you drown, not realizing that the person was pushing you down to free you from the objects that had hooked into your clothing and were tethering you to the bottom....


Every thing that seems like common sense isn't sensible.

Have a nice day.... see u at Starbucks!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21668
197. islander101010
11:19 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
prey for good weather http://www.waneefestival.com/ been watching the ocean water level for 30 yrs at this spot there is still no sign of a water level rise.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4377
196. greentortuloni
9:55 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Cochise111:
Deconstructing the Global Warming Fraud

By Alan Caruba

I have been reviewing books for fifty years and have long since lost count of how ....

From the earliest days the global warming “theory” was proposed I knew that it was a complete hoax. It never made any sense to me that an element of the earth’s atmosphere, carbon dioxide that measured an infinitesimal 0.0389%, could have an effect on the planet’s climate. .........to more than twenty years of global warming lies.


The fatal dose for humans of hydrocyanic acid is 50 mg. On a percent basis, that is far less than the CO2 man has added to the atmosphere.

You get the point probably but I'll go ahead and be probably annoyingly explicit: systems involving mechanisms, or non heterogeneous systems never have size as part of their boundary. Or, more accuratly, the effects of disturbances are non linear. My pellet stove, for example, gets a thin film of soot on the glass if I don't wipe it off. That thin film reduces the radiation heat output considerably, to the point that if it is dirty, I can sit in front of the stove, if it is clean, it is way too hot. The same goes for dust on solar panels, etc..

The thing is, Cochise111, you know this. Just because the system has non-linear mechanisms in it doesn't mean that CO2 will cause the atmosphere to heat. But anyone rejecting a huge body of work by some of the world's most intelligent people based on their personal common sense, at the least should bother to find out why their common sense objections haven't been considered by the people modeling the situation. Chances are they have, and chances are there is a good reason why the objections aren't valid.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
195. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:29 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
18:00 PM FST February 18 2011
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (999 hPa) located at 15.1S 169.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The cyclone was reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization improved past 24 hours with primary bands struggling to wrap around low level circulation center. Convection has not increased much in the past 6 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System lies along a surface trough and under the diffluent region. System slightly steered south southeast by a weak northwest deep layer mean regime. CIMSS analysis indicate weak shear to south of system and strong shear over the system. Mid-level ridge to south of system is expected to weaken and retrogress to the west as system moves south.

Dvorak assessment based on 0.3 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on a south southeast movement before moving it southeastward with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.9S 169.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.8S 169.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.8S 170.8W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
194. xcool
8:18 AM GMT on February 18, 2011



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:35 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
3:00 PM WST February 18 2011
==========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 20.2S 109.8E, or 490 km west northwest of Exmouth and 660 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

he risk of a coastal impact is much less now that Dianne is moving steadily toward the southwest. Model guidance indicates that it is unlikely to move close to the coast. TC Dianne will be closely monitored to ensure it does not pose a threat to coastal communities. Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Maps will continue to be issued.

Although no direct weather impacts are expected, tides along the entire west coast are likely to exceed the high water mark over the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse has been CANCELLED.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.9S 108.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.9S 108.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 23.1S 107.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 25.3S 105.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

LLCC is embedded in MG giving DT 4.0. 24hr trend is S hence MET is 3.5. Applying an EIR analysis to the 0330Z image [despite not being a true eye pattern] gave a similar DT. PAT is 3.5 and FT is set to PAT. ADT is running lower than this but AMSU estimates are running higher.

There is a significant area of convection to the northwest of the CDO that is likely to influence the motion and intensity of the system. Dianne has been near stationary for some time now and upwelling may be reducing the ocean heat content and affecting intensity.

Shear at 00Z was analysed as remaining steady at 6.7m/s from the east southeast. This is consistent with appearance in IR imagery. Shear should improve slightly during Friday night and then by Sunday the system should be experiencing northerly shear and be over much cooler waters.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
192. Ylee
7:20 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Hoosiers would do that.....:)
"Pi are not square, Pi are round!"
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 92 Comments: 15389
191. TomTaylor
7:00 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reminds of Indiana when they tried to pass a bill to make pi equal exactly 3.


LOL
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
190. Xyrus2000
6:52 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Montana Considers Repealing Reality in the Interest of Economic Development

Another nomination for not bill of the week award..

A bill for an Act entitled: "An Act Stating Montana's Position on Global Warming"

Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
(1) The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
(2) The legislature finds:
(a) global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
(b) reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
(c) global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.


Reminds me of Indiana when they tried to pass a bill to make pi equal exactly 3.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1468
189. Xyrus2000
6:47 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Oss First of all that is not me and the only reason I saw they quoited you as I had you on ignore for joining in that troll fest the other day.

Second I have this ID for my blog and my name ID Only. Do not insinuate otherwise.

I accept the scientific consensus.

I dont feel like being in here today.

So here is a recent article:



And as we have experienced a net solar dimming that would be the vast majority, if not all of warming since 1950 at least man made.


You know, a long time ago people were told, and they believed, that smoking was good for them. The stars made smoking glamorous. Commercials implied that you would be more of man. The tobacco companies spent a lot of money to make sure the general public believed smoking was a good thing.

But do you know who started to think that smoking wasn't a good thing? Doctors and scientists. Study after study and research article after research article came out showing increasingly bad news for tobacco smokers.

And who did the public listen to? The commercials. The billboards. The stars. The companies. They even got their own "doctors" and "scientists" to show that smoking was still a good thing. Of course, the studies produced by these charlatans were a joke, and just about every real doctor and scientist investigating the matter knew this, but the people didn't want to hear it. And of course, the elected reps of big tobacco states weren't going to stand for the demeaning of their state's big cash cow.

It took decades. Having those big stars they looked up to dying of cancer and looking 30 years older than they should finally had people starting to get the message. And even now, despite all the known dangers and issues, tobacco use is still one of the leading causes of preventable death in the world according to the WHO.

So what is the moral of this story? If your guessing big corp conspiracy theory, you're wrong. The moral of this story is that a lot of people would rather believe a happy lie than a terrible truth, no matter how much proof or evidence you show them.

So JFLORIDA, it won't matter how much evidence there is. It doesn't matter how many warning signs are out there, or how much peer-reviewed research has been done, or how many world recognized science organizations agree. When someone has couched their position in faith and fantasy, there is nothing that will convince them otherwise. Just look at the Birthers, or the Truthers, or the moon landing hoaxers. No amount of reason or logic will prevail.

The combined climate science community has given its equivalent of the Surgeon General's Warning. It remains to be seen whether or not it is listened to.

And if current budget proposals are anything to go by, it isn't being listened to. Se la vi.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1468
188. Skyepony (Mod)
5:48 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Montana Considers Repealing Reality in the Interest of Economic Development

Another nomination for not bill of the week award..

A bill for an Act entitled: "An Act Stating Montana's Position on Global Warming"

Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
(1) The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
(2) The legislature finds:
(a) global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
(b) reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
(c) global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:47 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:45 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Magnitude 4.0 - ARKANSAS
2011 February 18 04:59:49 UTC
Versión en Español
DetailsSummaryMapsScientific & TechnicalEarthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 4.0
Date-Time Friday, February 18, 2011 at 04:59:49 UTC
Thursday, February 17, 2011 at 10:59:49 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.248°N, 92.408°W
Depth 3.2 km (2.0 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region ARKANSAS
Distances 20 km (10 miles) N of Conway, Arkansas
55 km (35 miles) N of LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas
60 km (40 miles) W of Searcy, Arkansas
65 km (40 miles) E of Russellville, Arkansas

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth +/- 9.1 km (5.7 miles)
Parameters NST= 78, Nph= 87, Dmin=12.2 km, Rmss=0.84 sec, Gp= 36°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=5
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID usb0001gkl
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
185. Skyepony (Mod)
5:43 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Sea level versus temperature
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
184. Orcasystems
5:41 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Orcasystems:


I got an answer finally from them the other after asking the same question numerous times... drum roll please.... 80 - 120%

IHNFI how you get more then 100%, but that's what he said.


RETRACTION/CORRECTION ON MY PART.. IT SHOULD SAY "THEY" SAID, NOT "HE" SAID in line 2


595. Neapolitan 5:46 PM GMT on February 12, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, maybe you can give me an answer.. and believe it or not, I actually want to know. What percentage of GW is attributed to man.


I tend to agree with NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt on this one. He was asked in 2009 what percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes. His response: "Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been...is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I'd say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming."
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:41 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
MAP 4.0 2011/02/18 04:59:50 35.248 -92.408 3.2 ARKANSAS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:40 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
181. Skyepony (Mod)
5:39 AM GMT on February 18, 2011


Taking Action for a Coal Free Future

This morning Greenpeace activists have scaled the Bridgeport Harbor Generating Station coal elevator and unfurled a huge banner reading "Shut it Down: Quit Coal." The coal plant is an aging, inefficient plant that endangers the health of Bridgeport residents, including the children attending the six schools located within a one mile radius of the plant.

The protest is happening as Greenpeace's ship, the Arctic Sunrise, sailed up the East Coast for its Coal Free Future Tour. Nationwide, pollution from coal is responsible for more than 13,000 deaths per year – one person every forty minutes.

The plants owners Public Service Enterprise Group should protect public health and stop allowing the toxic plant to continue operating against the wishes of the people of Bridgeport.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
180. Skyepony (Mod)
5:33 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Rising seas threaten 180 U.S. cities by 2100: study
Reuters

By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent – Wed Feb 16, 5:29 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Rising seas spurred by climate change could threaten 180 U.S. coastal cities by 2100, a new study says, with Miami, New Orleans and Virginia Beach among those most severely affected.

Previous studies have looked at where rising waters might go by the end of this century, assuming various levels of sea level rise, but this latest research focused on municipalities in the contiguous 48 states with population of 50,000 or more.

Cities along the southern Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico will likely be hardest hit if global sea levels rise, as projected, by about 3 feet (1 meter) by 2100, researchers reported in the journal Climate Change Letters.

Sea level rise is expected to be one result of global warming as ice on land melts and flows toward the world's oceans.

Using data from the U.S. Geological Survey, the scientists were able to calculate in detail how much land could be lost as seas rise, said study author Jeremy Weiss of the University of Arizona.

Rising coastal waters threaten an average of nine percent of the land in the 180 coastal cities in the study.

Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Florida, and Virginia Beach, Virginia could lose more than 10 percent of their land area by century's end, the study found.

New York City, Washington DC and the San Francisco Bay area could face lesser impacts, according to the study...more here
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
179. Skyepony (Mod)
5:30 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Scientists connect global warming to extreme rain
By SETH BORENSTEIN , 02.16.11, 03:24 PM EST

WASHINGTON --

Extreme rainstorms and snowfalls have grown substantially stronger, two studies suggest, with scientists for the first time finding the telltale fingerprints of man-made global warming on downpours that often cause deadly flooding.

Two studies in Wednesday's issue of the journal Nature link heavy rains to increases in greenhouse gases more than ever before...more



Wow~ 2.3 million died from flooding since 1950.. models underestimated the amount of rain we should be seeing.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
178. Orcasystems
5:27 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Ossqss:


And your % answer is? ? ? ?

Remember, science is not a consensus sport. Consensus of opinion has nothing to do with science, only opinion.

So what is the percentage that man contributes to the warming you reference? No graphs needed, just a number........ What is it?


I got an answer finally from them the other after asking the same question numerous times... drum roll please.... 80 - 120%

IHNFI how you get more then 100%, but that's what he said.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
177. OCF
5:10 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Reminiscences of a childhood in Bartlesville -

Biggest short-term change I remember was 80° in the other direction: about 75° on a Wednesday afternoon, snow starting abruptly Thursday afternoon and continuing to midday Friday with 9" accumulated, then -5° by Saturday morning; all of that happening in late December one year.

As for this year's case: I still don't really understand how it got that cold in a narrow region along the Kansas-Oklahoma border, and why the low didn't settle in the -5° to -10° range. That would have been plenty cold enough, but the extra 20° or so beyond that is the mystery.

As for the warmup into the 70's - of course, those things happen. That high temperature isn't all that unheard of. And I can remember some pretty spectacular winter warmups. I remember a couple of occasions in which the south wind returned during the night on a cold night and by morning all the trees, tree limbs, telephone poles and everything else above ground was coated on the south side by a thick layer of frost that spent the rest of the morning falling off in big chunks.

But wasn't there 20" or so of snow on the ground this time? It seems that should have slowed the rate of warmup and possibly created a dense bank of ground fog. I guess it didn't happen that way.
Member Since: February 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
176. TomTaylor
5:03 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Ossqss:


And your % answer is? ? ? ?

Remember, science is not a consensus sport. Consensus of opinion has nothing to do with science, only opinion.

So what is the percentage that man contributes to the warming you reference? No graphs needed, just a number........ What is it?

I'm just curious, why are you asking for a specific percent?

Earth's systems are obviously far too complicated to try and come up with a specific, and accurate, percentage as to how much we are contributing.

Your guess is as good as his...
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
175. TomTaylor
4:56 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting RecordSeason:
I calculated that it should take something like 10,100 hp to push a container ship at 10kts.

But if the entire surface of a container ship was covered in 66% efficient solar steam boiler power plants that would only provide a maximum of 2760 horse power, and only during the day. This is actually only about enough power to get to a MAXIMUM day time speed of 5kts or so, and since they would be drifting at night time, they may average 2.5kts or less all together.

It woudl seem far more practical to use land based solar power, or platforms in the ocean, to make hydrogen fuel to power the ships, but then you will lose very much in the process.


platforms over the ocean may not be that bad of an idea...

No idea how it would work, but to illustrate just what I'm talking about, here is a satellite image of the total absorbed daily solar radiance mean for last month:



as you can see the oceans get a lot more than land areas, due to cloud cover
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
174. aspectre
4:54 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
100% : if it ain't man-made, it ain't AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:51 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:51 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2011 Feb 18 0450 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Feb 18 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 112
Issue Time: 2011 Feb 18 0139 UTC


SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Feb 18 0136 UTC
Deviation: 33 nT
Station: Boulder



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
171. Ossqss
4:49 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Oss First of all that is not me and the only reason I saw they quoited you as I had you on ignore for joining in that troll fest the other day.

Second I have this ID for my blog and my name ID Only. Do not insinuate otherwise.

I accept the scientific consensus.

I dont feel like being in here today.

So here is a recent article:



And as we have experienced a net solar dimming that would be the vast majority, if not all of warming since 1950 at least man made.


And your % answer is? ? ? ?

Remember, science is not a consensus sport. Consensus of opinion has nothing to do with science, only opinion.

So what is the percentage that man contributes to the warming you reference? No graphs needed, just a number........ What is it?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
168. TomTaylor
4:34 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting RecordSeason:
I am very serious though.

Our container ships use ridiculous 95,000 horse power engines. Bio fuels don't hit on jack. That thing will burn through an entire farm's worth of fuel in a day. What a waste of valuable phosphorous and other life-sustaining nutrients!

It makes no sense to burn an entire cargo ship full of corn so you can move a cargo ship full of wheat across the ocean. You'd quite literally be better off sending a bunch of sail boats and selling both the wheat and the corn for food....


I actually agree with you, biofuels are an alternative, but honestly, they don't seem very efficient or realistic as a solution for oil.

Anyway, back to weather...

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
165. TomTaylor
4:08 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Ossqss:


I have a question for you JF.

How much, as a percent, do you attribute to the current stated global warming from the normal temperature expectation, as mans part of the equation?

Now, the warming number does not really matter since it is a percentage based answer we seek.

Just askin, so we can put perspective on things :)

If you're asking me I have no damn idea.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
164. sunlinepr
4:03 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Actual Economy issues....
Link

Special report: China flexed its muscles using U.S. Treasuries
Reuters


NEW YORK (Reuters): Confidential diplomatic cables from the U.S. embassies in Beijing and Hong Kong lay bare China's growing influence as America's largest creditor.....

"China is America's biggest foreign lender, playing a crucial role in the U.S.Treasury auctions that allow Washington to borrow what it needs to keep its government running. At the same time, the United States is China's top export destination: America's trade deficit with the nation reached a record $273.1 billion in 2010. Most economists describe the two economies as co-dependent".


And....

Government shutdown? GOP, Democrats swap charges

WASHINGTON: In a deepening struggle over spending, Republicans and Democrats swapped charges Thursday over a possible government shutdown when money runs out March 4 for most federal agencies.

Link

AND (Posted yesterday)

Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.
The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9745
163. Ossqss
3:58 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:

I know, you already said this. BUT, my question (which you still haven't answered) is HOW do you know how much it would drop?


I have a question for you JF.

How much, as a percent, do you attribute to the current stated global warming from the normal temperature expectation, as mans part of the equation?

Now, the warming number does not really matter since it is a percentage based answer we seek.

Just askin, so we can put perspective on things :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
162. TomTaylor
3:54 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Well, luckly for the rest of the bloggers, that fire was extinguished fast.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
161. JRRP
3:53 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:
here we go

lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5486
160. TomTaylor
3:41 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Cochise111:


It works for me. Not sure why it doesn't work for you. Maybe your computer is brainwashed.


Yeah that makes perfect sense.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
159. TomTaylor
3:37 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Cochise111:


My proof? If the temperature were not adjusted the graph would be almost flat.

I know, you already said this. BUT, my question (which you still haven't answered) is HOW do you know how much it would drop?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
158. Cochise111
3:36 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
This link doesn't even work


It works for me. Not sure why it doesn't work for you. Maybe your computer is brainwashed.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 328
157. Cochise111
3:34 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:


To the bold part, what is your proof?


My proof? If the temperature were not adjusted the graph would be almost flat.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 328
156. TomTaylor
3:31 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Cochise111:


http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request -audit-bom.pdf

The above is a link that shows the manipulation of temperatures all over the globe. If not for the adjustments, the temperatures would not have risen.
This link doesn't even work
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
155. TomTaylor
3:28 AM GMT on February 18, 2011
Quoting Cochise111:


http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request -audit-bom.pdf

The above is a link that shows the manipulation of temperatures all over the globe. If not for the adjustments, the temperatures would not have risen.


To the bold part, what is your proof?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.