Another amazingly snowy winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 11, 2011

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As northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas dig out from the two feet of snow dumped this winter's latest epic snowstorm, it's time to summarize how remarkable the snows of the past two winters have been. So far this winter, the Northeast U.S. has seen three Category 3 (major) or higher snow storms on the Northeast Snowfall Impact (NESIS) scale. This scale, which rates Northeast snowstorms by the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm, runs from Category 1 (Notable) to Category 5 (Crippling.) This puts the winter of 2010 - 2011 in a tie for first place with the winters of 2009 - 2010 and 1960 - 1961 for most major Northeast snowstorms. All three of these winters had an extreme configuration of surface pressures over the Arctic and North Atlantic referred to as a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). In this situation, the band of winds that circles the North Pole weakens, allowing cold air to spill southwards into the mid-latitudes.

In the past twelve months, we've had six major Category 3 or stronger storms on the NESIS scale, by far the most major snowstorms in a 12-month period in the historical record. Going back to 1956, only one 12-month period had as many as four major snowstorms--during 1960 - 1961. New York City has seen three of its top-ten snowstorms and the two snowiest months in its 142-year history during the past 12 months--February 2010 (36.9") and January 2011 (36.0"). Philadelphia has seen four of its top-ten snowstorm in history the past two winters. The Midwest has not been left out of the action this year, either--the Groundhog's Day blizzard nailed Chicago with its 3rd biggest snowstorm on record. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2010 saw the 7th greatest U.S. snow extent for the month in the 45-year record, and January 2011 the 5th most. December 2009 had the greatest snow extent for the month in the 45-year record, January 2010 the 6th most, and February 2010 the 3rd most. Clearly, the snows of the past two winters in the U.S. have been truly extraordinary.


Figure 1. The six major Category 3 Northeast snowstorms of the past twelve months. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold January in the U.S.
January 2011 was the coldest January in the contiguous U.S. since 1994, according to the National Climatic Data Center, and ranked as the 37th coldest January in the 117-year record. Despite the heavy snows in the Northeast U.S., January was the 9th driest January since 1895. This was largely due to the fact that the Desert Southwest was very dry, with New Mexico recording its driest January, and Arizona and Nevada their second driest.

A cold and record snowy winter (yet again!) in the U.S. does not prove or disprove the existence of climate change or global warming, as we must instead focus on global temperatures averaged over decades. Globally, January 2011 was the 11th warmest since 1880, but tied for the second coolest January of the past decade, according to NASA. NOAA has not yet released their stats for January. The cool-down in global temperatures since November 2010, which was the warmest November in the historical record, is largely due to the temporary cooling effect of the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. This event has cooled a large portion of the surface waters in the Pacific, leading to a cooler global temperature.

Some posts of interest I've done on snow and climate change over the past year:

Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Pattern is back (December 2010)
The future of intense winter storms (March 2010)
Heavy snowfall in a warming world (February 2010)

Have a great weekend, everyone, and enjoy the coming warm-up, those of you in the eastern 2/3 of the country!

Jeff Masters

Snow and icicle sun (emilinetdd)
Snow and icicle sun
Cardinal City (dypepper)
Another exciting day for me, shooting the Cardinals in the Snow!
Cardinal City

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The Images show easily the Co2 in the Northern Hemisphere near the industrialized World centers..and less near the equator and much less populated S. Hemisphere.
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But the royalties off the Humor I create and sell to network comedy keeps the income steady..

A good symbiotic relationship I think easily.
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This is an interesting map of CO2 concentrations. People used to comparing temperatures on maps with similar colors might be misled by this CO2 map, at least at first glance. The range of values is about 6.5 parts per million between the high and low values. That is about a 1.6 % spread. The seasonal variations between May and October are quite interesting.



A high rez pic is here.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5939
Phunny,,have met atmo personally and did a entry on it.

He's a nice Guy and even bought lunch.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Al served America in Vietnam,U.S. Congress and as VP last I checked.

I wonder how that matches up to a blogger ?


U werent on iggy,,but now we can be like Glenda da Good Witch and say,,

"Go Away,,you have no Power Here"


POOF

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lol I love that quote
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting hcubed:
"...Show me one peer-reviewed paper that has ruled out natural, internal climate cycles as the cause of most of the recent warming in the thermometer record..."

Like to see that, myself.

Scinetists sat we're responsible for about 85ppm (roughly) in the past 100 or so years.

Whre did the other 300ppm come from?

The other 300 ppm is more or less a baseline amount created by the carbon cycle. It includes the sequestration of carbon dioxide in rock and the expulsion of carbon dioxide by volcanoes.

The graph posted by Patrap illustrates the situation.



Weren't you listening earlier? Shame on you for not listening.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5939
Some dude on Fox News says we need to "abandon these silly inefficient new technologies that waste our government money and just drill off of Florida".


My gosh, is he serious? Some of these people should go form the "primitive party".

The internal combustion engine was invented over 100 years ago. But yet with all our modern technology its not time to move on to a cleaner more improved system?

I don't want a frikkin oil spill happening 10 miles off the coast I go fishing on every weekend either. Us getting oil off of Florida won't help gas prices and neither will it help get off the dependency.

Even crazier, they think the oil we can get in the gulf of Mexico can replace the oil we get from the Middle East? The volume we could draw from the gulf would not come close to what Saudi Arabia draws.

What we should do is not allow other nations to come and drill in the gulf, if we did, we should make money off of it to fun renewable energy or something like that.
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382. Skyepony (Mod)
RecordSeason~Check out Germany~ The electricity grid in Germany is actually in trouble because of too much solar power feeding into it. At least that's what the chairman of the DENA agency, which advises the government on energy, has warned.

Thanks in part to subsidies by the German government, solar installations have been spreading like wildfire. UPI reports that between eight and 10 gigawatts of solar capacity, which is equivalent to about 10 coal-fired power plants, are expected to be installed this year alone.

The network is facing congestion because of all this solar power, according to the DENA agency chairman, Stephan Kohler, although the solar industry disagrees.

Kohler has called on Germany to scale back the growth of solar power, and recommends the government impose a cap of 1 GW per year. UPI reports that at the current rate, Germany would have almost 50 GW of solar capacity by 2013, and Berlin recently agreed to reduce subsidies for rooftop solar panels by 16 percent—that's down from up to subsidies of 50 percent, in some cases.

Compare that with the U.S., where the tax incentives for solar vary but never come close to the benefits fossil fuels get: according to 1BOG, the average U.S. taxpayer has paid $521.73 toward fossil fuel subsidies over the last five years—and $7.24 towards solar.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37326
The ISS uses 0 coal,,0 oil,and O Pollution.


Humans been living there for way longer than a Decade now.

Continuously.


Talk to a person who Orbited the Earth every 90 minutes for 6 mths.

And ask them if man is capable of changing the planet in a serious damaging manner.






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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA (05-20102011)
4:00 AM Reunion February 11 2011
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bingiza (993 hPa) located at 15.3S 54.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 15.3S 53.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 15.4S 52.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.0S 51.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 16.6S 49.1E - 40 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
======================

Convection over the system was fluctuate during the past six hours. System has moved slowly southward. The track should turn west southwestward during the next hours thanks to the steering flow of the mid tropospheric ridge building in the southwest of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for this west southwest track towards the eastern coast of Madagascar and for a landfall between Masaola Peninsula and Sainte-Marie Island on Monday.

Environmental conditions are improving for a regular strengthening of the system until the landfall (upper level wind shear is weakening, upper level divergence is improving and an upper outflow channel should get in place in the south of the system today but it should weaken on Sunday).

THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IT BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting JohnTucker:
Anti-intellectualism - is hostility towards and mistrust of intellect, intellectuals, and intellectual pursuits, usually expressed as the derision of education, philosophy, literature, art, and science, as impractical and contemptible.

Politics — When orthodox democratic politics fail, populism flourishes in the left-wing, the centre, and the right-wing of a nation’s political spectrum — each variety emphasizing the virtues of the uncorrupted, unsophisticated “salt of the earth” folk against professional politicians and their intellectual helpers, public intellectuals, academics, think tanks.


Being an intellectual doesn't necessarily mean you have to follow the crowd and be an elitist either.

I'm an intellectual, but I'm a "common folk" also.

I would much rather spend my life as a "country folk" then lose my mind in the extremism and vanity of the big city.


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Quoting Patrap:


Wait till Dec 12th 2012

Were booked off World the 18th with a Sumerian ride
we got 678 days to find out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Re: 362. RecordSeason

What u posted is just my point. RIGHT NOW the solar-boiler concept is considered most efficient. Once the steam engine on trains was considered the most avant guarde approach. Is steam still powering today's trains? Of course not! So why should I feel limited by current limitations???

And what's this about not using solar if your climate is too hot to need heat energy??? You mean we are too limited to create a more efficient way of commuting solar to electrical?

I find this limited mindset puzzling...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21440
How the UAH Global Temperatures Are Produced

Do we want to discuss homogenization in more depth and perhaps 1200km smoothing where there are no sensors (vast areas) also?

So tell us Neacollagen, Watts wrong with the data show in the prior post? Is it wrong? If so, tell us how?
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371. Skyepony (Mod)
Solar can be less than $1 a watt now. Ever watched solar companys on the market? Always being sued by an oil company. Installers have their own woes..

In a new study, the industry estimates that the permit dance adds an average of $2,500 in costs to each installation, and streamlining things could provide a $1 billion stimulus to the residential and commercial solar power market over the next five years.

The industry’s analysis, which has been shared with officials at the White House and the Energy Department, urges the federal government to create incentive programs that would nudge municipalities to adopt common codes, fee structures and filing procedures. Germany, Japan and some other countries that aggressively promote solar power have already used such streamlined permitting.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37326
Quoting twincomanche:


Is your head going to explode?

Wow. Incredible comeback! I guess you showed me!
Quoting Ossqss:
Temp adjustments? Lets have a look at policy and reality :)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc n/ushcn.html

How not to measure temperature, part 51.

WattsUpWithThat. Again? Gee, I was really kind of hoping someone would link to some actual science. Silly me for getting my hopes up...
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Let me ask you, if I provided you with indisputable proof that our planet was warming would you believe it?


Quoting Cochise111:


So, it doesn't matter if the temperature stations are incorrectly placed? It doesn't matter if past temperature readings are adjusted? Nothing matters to you except that temperatures might be increasing slightly, which you want to change our entire way of life for. The fact is that temperatures haven't been increasing without manipulation. Temperatures were much warmer in the past, and they will warm again in the future. We need an entirely new system run by those who don't have a predisposition to massage the data. I seem to remember in the Climategate emails where one of the "scientists" proclaimed that he was perturbed that the climate manipulators were unable to account for the lack of warming.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
events of last four hours

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.1 2011/02/11 23:59:18 27.274 143.084 13.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
MAP 6.3 2011/02/11 23:39:21 -37.181 -73.484 13.5 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 5.3 2011/02/11 21:46:00 -36.544 -73.047 28.8 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 6.8 2011/02/11 20:05:31 -36.479 -73.000 28.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE


may see a larger event yet to come


Wait till Dec 12th 2012

Were booked off World the 18th with a Sumerian ride
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Temp adjustments? Lets have a look at policy and reality :)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc n/ushcn.html

How not to measure temperature, part 51.
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keeper- look back at post 325- I been fussin' since it first started rumblin'

nope, I don't feel'm...didn't feel the haiti quake, either

(bs)
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events of last four hours

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 2.8 2011/02/12 00:12:15 61.484 -146.564 15.4 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 2.7 2011/02/12 00:09:02 36.824 -121.546 4.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.9 2011/02/12 00:05:40 27.348 143.089 10.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

MAP 5.1 2011/02/11 23:59:18 27.274 143.084 13.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
MAP 6.3 2011/02/11 23:39:21 -37.181 -73.484 13.5 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 5.3 2011/02/11 21:46:00 -36.544 -73.047 28.8 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 6.8 2011/02/11 20:05:31 -36.479 -73.000 28.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE


may see a larger event yet to come
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296




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Quoting Cochise111:
The fact is that temperatures haven't been increasing without manipulation.

That's one of the the most ludicrous, baseless, and utterly false statements I have ever read on this site--and that's saying a lot. Congrats! ;-)

Seriously, do you have even one single verifiable shred of evidence to back up such a ridiculous assertion? Anything? Anything at all?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
One of my complaints about the estimates for available solar energy is that it always references CURRENT technology, which, quite frankly, can only be described as antiquated in terms of world needs.

Frankly, if we r going to convert to solar, we have to find more efficient ways to harvest the energy. I envision a society of the future where everything that moves, all upper surfaces of buildings are covered with solar tiles that constantly harvest solar energy; of converters and batteries/storage that rival cell phones and laptop computers in comparative size to early phones and computers; of airplanes and cars whose winds and rear compartments carry solar conversion equipment rather than gas tanks...

It's a dream, right? But I think the potential for reality is out there. Instead of this ridiculous infighting about whether or not GW is happening, THIS is what pple should be fighting for. After all, no matter what else happens, the end of "big oil" is fast approaching. Americans, and by that I mean all of us in the Americas, North and South, need to "get with the program". We're the "new world"; let's create our future instead of waiting for the Europeans, Chinese and Japanese to hand it to us...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21440
Quoting RecordSeason:


Well yes, but only because so many in the U.S. seems to think nuclear is a bad idea.


That condition is directly attributable to cognitive deterioration contracted from focal cortical dysplasia. Seems I have seen that somewhere else also :) LOL
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Quoting TomTaylor:



It doesn't matter if they are recording artificial heat, because the that is where the temperature gauge's have always been. 5 degrees of artificial heat was also present 40 years ago in the 1970s, and the 1980s, and the 1990s. Yet temperatures keep on climbing, why do you think that is?

Even without temperature gauges, satellite data shows warming. Ice cores show warming. Coral reefs show warming. And most importantly, the greatest areas of temperature anomalies almost always occur in polar regions, far away from any cities.

So, the urban heat effect argument is out.


Even if it were true, it doesn't matter because we know for a fact humans are contributing to the warmth of our planet. It has been scientifically proven.


So, it doesn't matter if the temperature stations are incorrectly placed? It doesn't matter if past temperature readings are adjusted? Nothing matters to you except that temperatures might be increasing slightly, which you want to change our entire way of life for. The fact is that temperatures haven't been increasing without manipulation. Temperatures were much warmer in the past, and they will warm again in the future. We need an entirely new system run by those who don't have a predisposition to massage the data. I seem to remember in the Climategate emails where one of the "scientists" proclaimed that he was perturbed that the climate manipulators were unable to account for the lack of warming.
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Wow.... almost as bad as the first one.... maybe these r "foreshocks"?

Hope pple in Chile are staying safe...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21440
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 2.7 2011/02/12 00:09:02 36.824 -121.546 4.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.1 2011/02/11 23:59:18 27.274 143.084 13.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
MAP 6.3 2011/02/11 23:39:21 -37.181 -73.484 13.5 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 2.8 2011/02/11 22:59:42 59.961 -152.936 100.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAP 5.3 2011/02/11 21:46:00 -36.544 -73.047 28.8 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 4.8 2011/02/11 21:01:19 -36.323 -73.314 27.6 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP 2.7 2011/02/11 20:58:52 64.516 -147.173 6.1 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 6.8 2011/02/11 20:05:31 -36.479 -73.000 28.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.