Another amazingly snowy winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on February 11, 2011

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As northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas dig out from the two feet of snow dumped this winter's latest epic snowstorm, it's time to summarize how remarkable the snows of the past two winters have been. So far this winter, the Northeast U.S. has seen three Category 3 (major) or higher snow storms on the Northeast Snowfall Impact (NESIS) scale. This scale, which rates Northeast snowstorms by the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm, runs from Category 1 (Notable) to Category 5 (Crippling.) This puts the winter of 2010 - 2011 in a tie for first place with the winters of 2009 - 2010 and 1960 - 1961 for most major Northeast snowstorms. All three of these winters had an extreme configuration of surface pressures over the Arctic and North Atlantic referred to as a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). In this situation, the band of winds that circles the North Pole weakens, allowing cold air to spill southwards into the mid-latitudes.

In the past twelve months, we've had six major Category 3 or stronger storms on the NESIS scale, by far the most major snowstorms in a 12-month period in the historical record. Going back to 1956, only one 12-month period had as many as four major snowstorms--during 1960 - 1961. New York City has seen three of its top-ten snowstorms and the two snowiest months in its 142-year history during the past 12 months--February 2010 (36.9") and January 2011 (36.0"). Philadelphia has seen four of its top-ten snowstorm in history the past two winters. The Midwest has not been left out of the action this year, either--the Groundhog's Day blizzard nailed Chicago with its 3rd biggest snowstorm on record. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2010 saw the 7th greatest U.S. snow extent for the month in the 45-year record, and January 2011 the 5th most. December 2009 had the greatest snow extent for the month in the 45-year record, January 2010 the 6th most, and February 2010 the 3rd most. Clearly, the snows of the past two winters in the U.S. have been truly extraordinary.


Figure 1. The six major Category 3 Northeast snowstorms of the past twelve months. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold January in the U.S.
January 2011 was the coldest January in the contiguous U.S. since 1994, according to the National Climatic Data Center, and ranked as the 37th coldest January in the 117-year record. Despite the heavy snows in the Northeast U.S., January was the 9th driest January since 1895. This was largely due to the fact that the Desert Southwest was very dry, with New Mexico recording its driest January, and Arizona and Nevada their second driest.

A cold and record snowy winter (yet again!) in the U.S. does not prove or disprove the existence of climate change or global warming, as we must instead focus on global temperatures averaged over decades. Globally, January 2011 was the 11th warmest since 1880, but tied for the second coolest January of the past decade, according to NASA. NOAA has not yet released their stats for January. The cool-down in global temperatures since November 2010, which was the warmest November in the historical record, is largely due to the temporary cooling effect of the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. This event has cooled a large portion of the surface waters in the Pacific, leading to a cooler global temperature.

Some posts of interest I've done on snow and climate change over the past year:

Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Pattern is back (December 2010)
The future of intense winter storms (March 2010)
Heavy snowfall in a warming world (February 2010)

Have a great weekend, everyone, and enjoy the coming warm-up, those of you in the eastern 2/3 of the country!

Jeff Masters

Snow and icicle sun (emilinetdd)
Snow and icicle sun
Cardinal City (dypepper)
Another exciting day for me, shooting the Cardinals in the Snow!
Cardinal City

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Quoting Neapolitan:

I do to--though as I said earlier, any putative climate science project bankrolled in part by the likes of petro-kings such as the Kochs and the Gettys needs to be closely watched.


What a combination, commies and billionaires. Now that's a combination to be trusted.
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Quoting Levi32:
Mainland Alaska actually hasn't warmed much at all since the mid-1990s, and peaks during the last two decades failed to top the record annual means of the 1920s and 1930s, according to the GISS data set.



Koninklijk, Netherlands Meteorological Institute Climate Data Explorer

If I'm interpreting your plot correctly, you're showing temperatures for the entire 60N to 72N band. Yes, that includes Alaska but it also includes a whole lot of other real estate as well. I'm not saying that you're wrong but the plot that you show does not support your assertion.

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Quoting Levi32:
Study finds Alaska summer temperatures to have been higher than today during the last 3000 years.

"The authors conducted a high-resolution analysis of midge assemblages found in the sediments of Moose Lake (61°22.45′N, 143°35.93′W) in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve of south-central Alaska (USA), based on data obtained from cores removed from the lake bottom in the summer of AD 2000 and a midge-to-temperature transfer function that yielded mean July temperatures (TJuly) for the past six thousand years."


I see you've chosen an image from WUWT! Link

I think there's better images in the report ! Link
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Quoting Patrap:
Fredo, you're my older brother, and I love you. But don't ever take sides with anyone against the Family again.


Ever.


Hey, Mikey, I'm smart. I was passed over!
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Quoting Levi32:


I look forward to the results of that project.

I do to--though as I said earlier, any putative climate science project bankrolled in part by the likes of petro-kings such as the Kochs and the Gettys needs to be closely watched.
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Quoting Levi32:
Study finds Alaska summer temperatures to have been higher than today during the last 3000 years.

"The authors conducted a high-resolution analysis of midge assemblages found in the sediments of Moose Lake (6122.45%u2032N, 14335.93%u2032W) in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve of south-central Alaska (USA), based on data obtained from cores removed from the lake bottom in the summer of AD 2000 and a midge-to-temperature transfer function that yielded mean July temperatures (TJuly) for the past six thousand years."


Your headline is a more than a bit misleading. You might want to try something like "Study finds Moose Lake summer temperatures to have been higher than today during the last 3000 years." But even that is not really correct. From the Quaternary Science Reviews paper by Clegg et al:

"The Moose Lake TJuly record is of limited value for assessing anthropogenic warming in the context of the long-term natural variability because of the relatively coarse temporal resolution and potential impacts of human activity on the lake chemistry."



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Quoting Cochise111:


How would you do that? It seems to me that objective websites do show little or no warming. With the new independent temperature monitoring system we will soon see. With a name like "Berkeley" I don't have much faith, but I hope they will post temperature trends without data adjustment.


Unfortunately with their communist leanings they are already suspect. They will have about as much credibility as the studies sponsored by the oil companies. Do we have no institutions left we can trust?
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neapolitan:

You aren't seriously trying to claim that thing is reliable or that there have been any reliable world wide temperature data for 100+ years? And no, sorry, a contraption like that certainly doesn't qualify for what has been in use in modern times.

Mercury thermometers are prone to bad data from something as simple as being bumped or tilted, which could easily happen because of wind or some other event.

Stuff like this happens all the time. I got a spring thermometer in the back yard that always says 95f. It doesn't make it accurate just because it says so. In fact, it's a piece of garbage.

If you've ever had to calibrate instruments, you should know that even brand new instruments can be broken, or have terrible inconsistencies or loss of calibration. In QC, we used to be required to re-calibrate micrometers, scales, and other custom instruments for EVERY measurement, because they lose calibration that fast, even in a climate controlled environment. It used to annoy the hell out of me, because we literally recalibrated EVERY instrument 12 times per shift.

You people are basing an entire theory on interpretation of data sets from instruments that sit in a box in all the variable forces of weather all day long, and act as if there's no uncertainty in calibration issues or bad instrumentation.


A personal experiencial connection:

Yes, temperature and pressure gauges and minimum and maximum indicators and similar things get stuck too. This happens all the time in manufacturing, even with almost fully automated modern systems, which is one reason why half the people in a plant are Quality Control and do nothing other than check the work of other people or machines. You can have a whole line of product that is defective, and yet it passed EVERY gauge and every fail safe in the automated testing process. And if you're not paying attention, you've already made an hour's worth of garbage, instruments be damned.

We used to also be required to not even scratch out a mistake on paper, but single line through it, because QC wants to see the process tech's mistake, and QC manager wants to see the QC tech's mistake, because their "corrections" could be mistakes.

The point I'm making is I've at least some experience in dealing with instruments that give wrong values.

Does anyone here not get the obvious contradiction of how you can be claiming record high world wide temperatures while simultaneously having record snow falls and accumulations?

We had icicles, 100% natural icicles, in Springfield, Louisiana, and people on this site are trying to claim this winter is somehow warmer than average. I call BS.

It's certainly one of the 3 coldest winters in my memory.

Did it not occur to you that either the records are wrong or your interpretation is wrong?


I guess we'll have to put up with another 30 years of this crap before you guys finally catch on...
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting JohnTucker:


Really it is - Ive never seen such misrepresentation and incorrect information posted here. Ever.

No sources, no links just pure conspiracy and garbage.

Thats just a taste of "Science" under a denial type political regime. Nothing but the worst continuously attacking the best when it suits a political agenda.


I'm glad I raised the ire of the blog's greatest examples of what did not make this country great. I feel honored.
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Quoting hcubed:


Really? ALL of it?

"...Hurricane Katrina killed 320 million trees in Mississippi and Louisiana, and the die-off is affecting the atmosphere as well as the landscape. Decaying trees will release about 367 million tons of carbon dioxide, equal to the amount released in a whole season of US forest fires, the LA Times reports. "In some areas, it was 100% damage," says one expert..."

Link


367 milllion tons? LOL! Human emissions - every year - are only 100 times greater than that!

You obviously also need to look up the definition of "primarily"...

Definition of PRIMARILY
1: for the most part : chiefly
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744



A Kum bah ya moment............


Lets sing together,


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Quoting MrMixon:
Let me ask you, if I provided you with indisputable proof that our planet was warming would you believe it?





How would you do that? It seems to me that objective websites do show little or no warming. With the new independent temperature monitoring system we will soon see. With a name like "Berkeley" I don't have much faith, but I hope they will post temperature trends without data adjustment.
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Fredo, you're my older brother, and I love you. But don't ever take sides with anyone against the Family again.


Ever.
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Quoting Levi32:
Alaska actually hasn't warmed much at all since the mid-1990s, and peaks during the last two decades failed to top the record annual means of the 1920s and 1940s, according to the GISS data set.



a href="Koninklijk, Netherlands Meteorological Institute Climate Data Explorer


Thanks, I don't have that information at hand but thought that's what I was told.
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Quoting Cochise111:


We shall soon find out with the new Berkeley temperature site coming online.


I look forward to the results of that project.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's one of the the most ludicrous, baseless, and utterly false statements I have ever read on this site--and that's saying a lot. Congrats! ;-)

Seriously, do you have even one single verifiable shred of evidence to back up such a ridiculous assertion? Anything? Anything at all?


We shall soon find out with the new Berkeley temperature site coming online.
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Mainland Alaska actually hasn't warmed much at all since the mid-1990s, and peaks during the last two decades failed to top the record annual means of the 1920s and 1930s, according to the GISS data set.



Koninklijk, Netherlands Meteorological Institute Climate Data Explorer
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting hcubed:


Just as people might question yours...

Which I sincerely hope they do. Question everything, especially that with which you agree; to do otherwise is purest folly.
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There are still some of the glaciers advancing. Whether glaciers are advancing or retreating is more a function of how much snow falls in the snow field than a function of temperature.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, this is a correct statement. Recent research using isotope analysis has shown that the additional CO2 in the atmosphere has come primarily from burning fossil fuels (the C13 to C12 ratio).



Really? ALL of it?

"...Hurricane Katrina killed 320 million trees in Mississippi and Louisiana, and the die-off is affecting the atmosphere as well as the landscape. Decaying trees will release about 367 million tons of carbon dioxide, equal to the amount released in a whole season of US forest fires, the LA Times reports. "In some areas, it was 100% damage," says one expert..."

Link
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Journeymanpictures | August 27, 2007

August 2007

Alaska is feeling the effects of global warming more than anywhere else. The tiny village of Shismaref is literally being swallowed by the sea. Villagers will soon have to be relocated. According to one villager, the sea reclaims; "20 to 100 feet" of coastline every year. Just as the foundations of this Inuit village are being eroded so too is the villagers' ability to hunt. "Due to the dangerous ice conditions, we have to be very careful", states one hunter. Recently, a man died after plunging through the ice. The situation is now so bad, there are plans to move the entire community to mainland America. "It's got to be the whole community moving to one place", states islander Dennis Davis. Villagers are committed to preserving their Inuit culture.

Video,YouTube
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm sorry if it "peeves" you or anyone else. But the source has to be considered in things of this import. I always question the motives of anyone trying to sell me anything. Always.


Just as people might question yours...
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Study finds Alaska summer temperatures to have been higher than today during the last 3000 years.

"The authors conducted a high-resolution analysis of midge assemblages found in the sediments of Moose Lake (61°22.45′N, 143°35.93′W) in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve of south-central Alaska (USA), based on data obtained from cores removed from the lake bottom in the summer of AD 2000 and a midge-to-temperature transfer function that yielded mean July temperatures (TJuly) for the past six thousand years."

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
The Psychology of Climate Change Denial

* By Brandon Keim Email Author
* December 9, 2009


Even as the science of global warming gets stronger, fewer Americans believe it’s real. In some ways, it’s nearly as jarring a disconnect as enduring disbelief in evolution or carbon dating. And according to Kari Marie Norgaard, a Whitman College sociologist who’s studied public attitudes towards climate science, we’re in denial.

“Our response to disturbing information is very complex. We negotiate it. We don’t just take it in and respond in a rational way,” said Norgaard.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared in 2007 that greenhouse gases had reached levels not seen in 650,000 years, and were rising rapidly as a result of people burning fossil fuel. Because these gases trap the sun’s heat, they would — depending on human energy habits — heat Earth by an average of between 1.5 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by century’s end. Even a midrange rise would likely disrupt the planet’s climate, producing droughts and floods, acidified oceans, altered ecosystems and coastal cities drowned by rising seas.

“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future,” said Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, when the report was released. “This is the defining moment.”

Studies published since then have only strengthened the IPCC’s predictions, or suggested they underestimate future warming. But as world leaders gather in Copenhagen to discuss how to avoid catastrophic climate change, barely half the U.S. public thinks carbon pollution could warm Earth. That’s 20 percent less than in 2007, and lower than at any point in the last 12 years. In a Pew Research Center poll, Americans ranked climate dead last out of 20 top issues, behind immigration and trade policy.

Wired.com talked to Norgaard about the divide between science and public opinion.

Wired.com: Why don’t people seem to care?

Kari Norgaard: On the one hand, there have been extremely well-organized, well-funded climate-skeptic campaigns. Those are backed by Exxon Mobil in particular, and the same PR firms who helped the tobacco industry (.pdf) deny the link between cancer and smoking are involved with magnifying doubt around climate change.

That’s extremely important, but my work has been in a different area. It’s been about people who believe in science, who aren’t out to question whether science has a place in society.

Wired.com: People who are coming at the issue in good faith, you mean. What’s their response?

Norgaard: Climate change is disturbing. It’s something we don’t want to think about. So what we do in our everyday lives is create a world where it’s not there, and keep it distant.

For relatively privileged people like myself, we don’t have to see the impact in everyday life. I can read about different flood regimes in Bangladesh, or people in the Maldives losing their islands to sea level rise, or highways in Alaska that are altered as permafrost changes. But that’s not my life. We have a vast capacity for this.

Wired.com: How is this bubble maintained?

Norgaard: In order to have a positive sense of self-identity and get through the day, we’re constantly being selective of what we think about and pay attention to. To create a sense of a good, safe world for ourselves, we screen out all kinds of information, from where food comes from to how our clothes our made. When we talk with our friends, we talk about something pleasant.

Wired.com: How does this translate into skepticism about climate change?

Norgaard: It’s a paradox. Awareness has increased. There’s been a lot more information available. This is much more in our face. And this is where the psychological defense mechanisms are relevant, especially when coupled with the fact that other people, as we’ve lately seen with the e-mail attacks, are systematically trying to create the sense that there’s doubt.

If I don’t want to believe that climate change is true, that my lifestyle and high carbon emissions are causing devastation, then it’s convenient to say that it doesn’t.

Wired.com: Is that what this comes down to — not wanting to confront our own roles?

Norgaard: I think so. And the reason is that we don’t have a clear sense of what we can do. Any community organizer knows that if you want people to respond to something, you need to tell them what to do, and make it seem do-able. Stanford University psychologist Jon Krosnick has studied this, and showed that people stop paying attention to climate change when they realize there’s no easy solution. People judge as serious only those problems for which actions can be taken.

Another factor is that we no longer have a sense of permanence. Another psychologist, Robert Lifton, wrote about what the existence of atomic bombs did to our psyche. There was a sense that the world could end at any moment.

Global warming is the same in that it threatens the survival of our species. Psychologists tell us that it’s very important to have a sense of the continuity of life. That’s why we invest in big monuments and want our work to stand after we die and have our family name go on.

That sense of continuity is being ruptured. But climate change has an added aspect that is very important. The scientists who built nuclear bombs felt guilt about what they did. Now the guilt is real for the broader public.

Wired.com: So we don’t want to believe climate change is happening, feel guilty that it is, and don’t know what to do about it? So we pretend it’s not a problem?

Norgaard: Yes, but I don’t want to make it seem crass. Sometimes people who are very empathetic are less likely to help in certain situations, because they’re so disturbed by it. The human capacity of empathy is really profound, and that’s part of our weakness. If we were more callous, then we’d approach it in a more straightforward way. It may be a weakness of our capacity as sentient beings to cope with this problem.
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Winfree is helping lead a new three-year, $500,000 climate scenario project in Alaska intended to identify and cope with the warming trend. That is part of a $10 million program to plan for and mitigate climate change in parks nationwide.

In some Alaska parks, the climate transformation is too gradual to be detected by casual visitors, Winfree said. But many experts see it.

"Those of us that go into these places over time can definitely notice the changes," said Jim Stratton, Alaska regional director for the National Parks and Conservation Association, an environmental organization.

Some changes are obvious in Kenai Fjords National Park, a popular destination south of Anchorage known for its ice-capped peaks, tidewater glaciers and abundant marine life.

The retreat of Exit Glacier, one of the park's best-known features, has forced park managers to reroute trails through areas that were under ice just a few years ago. The glacier's retreat also has left a sheltered pavilion that was built in the 1990s far from the spectacular views of blue ice.

"We used to build these things with a sense of permanence," said Jeff Mow, the park's superintendent.

A more ominous concern has been runoff from glacier melt. Spring and fall floods have long been common, but over the past two summers, at the peak of tourist season, the Exit Glacier entrance has been swept by big, road-closing floods, Mow said.

There are similar hazards elsewhere, according to the Park Service's climate strategy report. Shrinking glaciers and heavy snowmelt make it more likely that the frozen walls of glacial lakes will fail, triggering flash floods and debris flows that could endanger park workers and visitors, the report said.

At Denali National Park, one of the state's top tourist destinations, once-frozen hillsides are unleashing cascades of mud as they thaw, causing problems along the lone road that snakes through the heart of the park.

Another big headache is newly sprouted roadside vegetation, said Elwood Lynn, assistant superintendent at the park.

"There's a dramatic difference, if you look in old photos, in the amount of vegetation," Lynn said. "We've got full-time crews cutting brush that we didn't have in the early '80s."

Elsewhere, accelerated erosion is taking its toll on thawed shoreline under assault from surf once held back by sea ice.

At the remote Bering Land Bridge National Preserve and Cape Krusenstern National Monument in northwestern Alaska, coastal erosion poses risks to archeological resources thousands of years old and to some modern structures near the shore, according to the Park Service strategy.

Erosion woes in Shishmaref, an Inupiat village perched atop rapidly thawing coastal permafrost in northwestern Alaska, also pose a threat to nearby parkland, Stratton said. Plans to relocate the village to firmer ground farther inland include, at least tentatively, transport of huge loads of gravel across a stretch of Bering Land Bridge National Monument.

Other problems identified by the Park Service include acidification of marine waters as they absorb atmospheric carbon and become potentially less hospitable to resident fish populations, and increased commercial activity in newly ice-free waters adjacent to parks.

(Editing by Steve Gorman and Greg McCune)
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Quoting Patrap:
Climate change keenly felt in Alaska's national parks

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) – Thawing permafrost is triggering mudslides onto a key road traveled by busloads of sightseers. Tall bushes newly sprouted on the tundra are blocking panoramic views. And glaciers are receding from convenient viewing areas, while their rapid summer melt poses new flood risks.

These are just a few of the ways that a rapidly warming climate is reshaping Denali, Kenai Fjords and other national parks comprising the crown jewels of Alaska's heritage as America's last frontier.

These and some better-known impacts -- proliferation of invasive plants and fish, greater frequency and intensity of wildfires, and declines in wildlife populations that depend on sea ice and glaciers -- are outlined in a recent National Park Service report.

Since the mid-1970s, Alaska has warmed at three times the rate of the Lower 48 states, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. And with nearly two-thirds of U.S. national parkland located in Alaska, the issue of climate change is especially pressing there, officials say.

In some far northern parks such as Gates of the Arctic, average temperatures are expected to shift in coming years from below freezing to above freezing, crossing a crucial threshold, said Bob Winfree, Alaska science adviser for the Park Service.

"The effects of melting ice and thawing permafrost, I think, will be major," Winfree said


The temperature has changed by how much?
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Climate change keenly felt in Alaska's national parks

By Yereth Rosen Yereth Rosen Sat Feb 12, 12:43 pm ET

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) Thawing permafrost is triggering mudslides onto a key road traveled by busloads of sightseers. Tall bushes newly sprouted on the tundra are blocking panoramic views. And glaciers are receding from convenient viewing areas, while their rapid summer melt poses new flood risks.

These are just a few of the ways that a rapidly warming climate is reshaping Denali, Kenai Fjords and other national parks comprising the crown jewels of Alaska's heritage as America's last frontier.

These and some better-known impacts -- proliferation of invasive plants and fish, greater frequency and intensity of wildfires, and declines in wildlife populations that depend on sea ice and glaciers -- are outlined in a recent National Park Service report.

Since the mid-1970s, Alaska has warmed at three times the rate of the Lower 48 states, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. And with nearly two-thirds of U.S. national parkland located in Alaska, the issue of climate change is especially pressing there, officials say.

In some far northern parks such as Gates of the Arctic, average temperatures are expected to shift in coming years from below freezing to above freezing, crossing a crucial threshold, said Bob Winfree, Alaska science adviser for the Park Service.

"The effects of melting ice and thawing permafrost, I think, will be major," Winfree said
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Despite higher F10 flux and SSN, geomagnetic activity (AP index) remains a flat-line overall:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting Levi32:
Dry air partially due to upwelled cold water is disrupting all the inner core bands. The eye wall hasn't been significantly affected yet, but that may come later.


I don't see much over a category 2 either. I think this thing's only saving grace really is the fact that it does have a relatively tight, dense, inner-core. However, it is rather small and beginning to look more ragged along with losing it's circular structural appearance.

I think those adverse elements - upwelling and that dry air entrainment through the mid-levels - will further constitute dissipating of Bingiza up until landfall or thereabouts.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting RecordSeason (#643):
639:

No you missed the point...That was EXACTLY my point...

No such devices existed several decades ago, nevermind 80 or 100 years ago...

Good God you people are dense...

Are you not aware that Six's maximum-minimum thermometer was invented in 1782? That's 229 years. Or, you know, almost 23 decades ago.

I haven't seen where you apologized yet. In the future, before you to use disparaging terms like "dense", you might want to do some homework first. I've heard it's no fun to look foolish... ;-)
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Quoting Patrap:
www.solarcycle24.com

Sunspots (Saturday)


[SDO] Magnetogram



Solar Activity on the Rise
02/12/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 22:15
Comment on Message Board

Solar Update - The solar flux on Saturday stands at 96 which ties a Cycle 24 record set exactly 1 year ago on Feb 12, 2010. A solar flux of 96 is not all that high, but perhaps a step in the right direction.

Several B-Class flares and atleast one C-Class flare have taken place within the past 24 hours around Sunspot 1159 and newly numbered 1160 which is located on the eastern limb and rotating into view. A few of these flares caused some CME's that are seen in the latest Lasco C2 movie blasting off the eastern limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an M-Class event.

Old sunspot region 1149 has rotated back into view and it appears to be spotless at this time.


On the other hand, this current flash of activity may be short-lived as STEREO-Behind doesn't look promising:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting Chicklit:


I love the new site.

It is faster alright.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
www.solarcycle24.com

Sunspots (Saturday)


[SDO] Magnetogram



Solar Activity on the Rise
02/12/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 22:15
Comment on Message Board

Solar Update - The solar flux on Saturday stands at 96 which ties a Cycle 24 record set exactly 1 year ago on Feb 12, 2010. A solar flux of 96 is not all that high, but perhaps a step in the right direction.

Several B-Class flares and atleast one C-Class flare have taken place within the past 24 hours around Sunspot 1159 and newly numbered 1160 which is located on the eastern limb and rotating into view. A few of these flares caused some CME's that are seen in the latest Lasco C2 movie blasting off the eastern limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an M-Class event.

Old sunspot region 1149 has rotated back into view and it appears to be spotless at this time.
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Quoting Levi32:
Something tells me the intensity forecasts are too high. The latest IR image shows a flimsy core with an outer spiral band feeding off of the warmer non-upwelled waters to the north that puts the eye wall to shame.


Yeah, as you pointed out before, when the outer feeder bands have deeper, cooler cloud tops associated with the convection than the inner core region surrounding the eye, that's usually a sign the storm is definitely not without it's fair share of adverse affects inflicted upon it.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
711:

Your post was referring to global warming, which allegedly does have something to do with hurricanes and other severe weather. Unless the alarmists have suddenly reversed their claims about the impacts on cyclones, etc...


Just so you know, scientific and socio-political history is full of "majorities", even overwhelming majorities, who were most certainly wrong.

History of and "Science of the Impossible"
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336


I love the new site.
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Dry air partially due to upwelled cold water is disrupting all the inner core bands. The eye wall hasn't been significantly affected yet, but that may come later.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Something tells me the intensity forecasts are too high. The latest IR image shows a flimsy core with an outer spiral band feeding off of the warmer non-upwelled waters to the north that puts the eye wall to shame. High-end Cat 1 or low-end Cat 2 may be as strong as this gets.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting RecordSeason:
703:

LOL @ you. "peer review".

Just look at the 1944 to 1973 hurricanes data vs 1981 to 2010...no change...

Epic fail.

Search Your Feelings...


Huh? What are you talking about? My post had nothing to do with hurricanes.

I think you messed up the post number you're responding to.
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Quoting Patrap:
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR


The power brokers of the United States cater to the needs of energy interests first and foremost.

They do not care about rights or democracy.

As long as the oil is there, the support will be there, and women will still be sentenced to 100 lashes for having the the audacity to be raped_by a man.

I listen to the talking heads on the Right complaining about the risk of Sharia_law but mum is the word when anyone brings up Saudi Arabia.

Oil is sacred.



Egyptian Army Commits To Civilian Power Transfer, Peace With Israel




Uh Uh Uh. Hang on Pat. Not every well off individual, corporation, or entity follows that ethical line of thought.

It's very easy to paint with a broad brush. I get that.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting Patrap:
Until Oil and Old Men are NOT in control,,and the driving force of men and Nations changes from the accumulation of wealth and power,,spect nothing much to change in our lives sadly.


Truth over "power and control" is the New wave Globally.


Oil like a gun is not evil, it's the old men tho I doubt the young men will be any smarter. Our problem is that we have no energy policy not that we have a bad one. There are plenty of answers out there. We just need to find someone with sense enough to start doing some of the answers.

Maybe if the Mid East goes up in chaos we will start taking steps in the right direction.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Iraq has 4 times as much water area per capita as Madagascar, at 16778 persons per square mile water.

Ethiopia, another nation with a history of poverty and severe drought, has much more water per person, at 28559 persons per square mile water, which means Ethiopia has more than 2.5 times as much water per capita.


Square miles of water doesn't tell you much. It's volume that's more telling. Additionally, water per capita doesn't tell you anything about the quality of water, nor the accessibility of that water.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR


The power brokers of the United States cater to the needs of energy interests first and foremost.

They do not care about rights or democracy.

As long as the oil is there, the support will be there, and women will still be sentenced to 100 lashes for having the the audacity to be raped_by a man.

I listen to the talking heads on the Right complaining about the risk of Sharia_law but mum is the word when anyone brings up Saudi Arabia.

Oil is sacred.



Egyptian Army Commits To Civilian Power Transfer, Peace With Israel



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Until Oil and Old Men are NOT in control,,and the driving force of men and Nations changes from the accumulation of wealth and power,,spect nothing much to change in our lives sadly.


Truth over "power and control" is the New wave Globally.

Furthermore, others who worked extremely hard throughout their life and thus garnered their great wealth and power in America also have the freedom and will to share it with others less fortunate if they so rightly choose. And yes, it does happen. Everyday.

That to me is the best part. Everyone has a choice here in the US to mold their imprint upon the communities within the world.

Just thought I'd throw that tidbit in the benevolent tray being passed around. Cheers.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
703:

LOL @ you. "peer review".

Just look at the 1944 to 1973 hurricanes data vs 1981 to 2010...no change...

Epic fail.

Search Your Feelings...
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Until Oil and Old Men are NOT in control,,and the driving force of men and Nations changes from the accumulation of wealth and power,,spect nothing much to change in our lives sadly.


Truth over "power and control" is the New wave Globally.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


It should have a modifier, one that bans egomaniacs from shoving their secular GW religion down peoples throats.


First, there is no such thing as a secular religion. Secularity is separation from religion.

Second, a religion is based on faith. Global warming is based on science. Your personal belief/faith/religion may not agree with the scientific research and its conclusions, but that does not invalidate the science nor make it a "religion". If you can scientifically refute the current research and results, then by all means write a paper and do so.

No one is "shoving it down your throat". You've been posting your thoughts and opinions on the subject, and others have been pointing out inconsistencies and inaccuracies based on the current science, admittedly some with more tact than others. You may disagree with the science. You may not like the science. But unless you have your own research that can stand up to the critiques of the experts in the field (or can produce peer reviewed sources to back up your assertions) and can summarily refute the current science and results, your personal beliefs and opinions are, scientifically speaking, incorrect.

And no, that is not being egotistical. The science is the result of our best research and data. It is the best "answer" we have. Can the science be wrong? Of course. Is the science wrong? Not until research can demonstrate otherwise, and so far it hasn't.
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Iraq has 4 times as much water area per capita as Madagascar, at 16778 persons per square mile water.

Ethiopia, another nation with a history of poverty and severe drought, has much more water per person, at 28559 persons per square mile water, which means Ethiopia has more than 2.5 times as much water per capita.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
701. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Peak forecast from RSMC is 105 knots (120 knots - 1 min)
JTWC is around 95 knots..

hmm.. someone is wrong.
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700. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL BINGIZA (05-20102011)
22:00 PM Reunion February 12 2011
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza (963 hPa) located at 15.6S 53.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the northern semi-circle and the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D 2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 15.8S 52.7E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 16.1S 51.3E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 16.5S 48.4E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS: 17.5S 45.8E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
======================

BINGIZA is intensifying very rapidly. An eye is clearly visible on satellite imagery since this afternoon; current manual Dvorak analysis gives a raw T number at 5.5 at 18:00 PM UTC.. 3 hours mean of T-number give 5.5 and 6 hour mean gives T5.0. ADT is at 3.9 at 1730 PM UTC but with a misplaced center until 15:30 PM UTC. Since that time the center is located at the right place and raw T number is at 5.9.. so current intensity may be somewhat conservative. The system is still quasi-stationary. After its small loop of this afternoon, the system should resume tonight on a west southwestward track under the influence of the steering flow generated by the rebuilding southwestward mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for this west southwest track towards the eastern coast of Madagascar and for a landfall between Masaola Peninsula and Sainte-Marie Island on Monday.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a rather rapid strengthening of the system until the landfall (no upper level wind shear, very good upper level divergence - good oceanic potential).

THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IT BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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