Renewed flooding in Sri Lanka kills 11, affects 1.05 million

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:21 AM GMT on February 07, 2011

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Renewed flooding in Sri Lanka due to heavy monsoon rains has killed at least 11 people and inundated the homes of 1.05 million people over the past week. The floods occurred over the central, north, and east portions of the island, and have the potential to devastate the rice crop and cause hundreds of millions in damage. Many of the areas affected were also hard-hit by January's 100-year flood, which killed 43 people, affected over 1 million people, and did at least $500 million in damage. Those floods destroyed 21% of Sri Lanka's rice crop. Heavy rains from the annual northeastern monsoon are common in the region from December through February, but this year's rains have been enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. According to the United Nations, the rains in January in Sri Lanka were the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping. The flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Satellite estimates of rainfall over Sri Lanka for the first week of February show that up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain has fallen. The latest rainfall forecast from the GFS model projects that a tropical disturbance (91B) near Sri Lanka will bring an additional 1 - 3 inches of rain to the flood area this week, so the flood waters will be slow to recede.


Figure 1. AP video of the latest flooding in Sri Lanka.

Jeff Masters

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225. Neapolitan
2:05 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
224. Neapolitan
1:03 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989:


Good thing it didnt happen in Manila.

I don't image the residents of Jolo and Leyte share your sentiments... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
222. islander101010
12:48 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
time to start looking for candles at the garage sales it would be kind of scary if the solar flares are forecasted in dec 2012
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4722
221. BahaHurican
11:18 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Morning all...

It's hitting me this morning that shape matters... If the coastline of New Zealand was reversed, that is, with the long Northland peninsula on the eastern side of the North Island rather than the western, NZ would get hit with TCs all the time.... lol

Glad to see OZ is getting a bit of a break from the eastern flooding... now if they could get some rain in the SW!

Ya'll have the best possible day....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
220. IKE
11:04 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
6-10 day temperature outlook......


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
218. Chicklit
4:23 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Yes, the site is messed up Geoffrey.
cannot post photos or links.
nite all.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
217. sunlinepr
4:20 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Ossqss:
Dang it,,,,,,,,,, ya made me check on the Sun stuff and poof, that 2012 thing keeps coming up. It is like a magnet!!!! Interesting, none the less, and about that dynamo thing?


Michio Kaku said - we will go back 150 years, paralizing the US and will take years to get back - 10 Katrinas in damage...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
216. Chicklit
4:20 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Hi and bye...busy as heck and have to get some sleep cuz got to get up early and do it all over again!
Just reporting in to say we had a pretty strong cold front blow through ECFL about 4 p.m. today.
We've had a some much-needed rain which is great. Not complaining, but we could use some more.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11346
215. sunlinepr
4:13 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
With water up to the roof and your are hanging there.... Katrina

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
214. GeoffreyWPB
4:11 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Did something happen with the site?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
213. Ossqss
3:53 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Dang it,,,,,,,,,, ya made me check on the Sun stuff and poof, that 2012 thing keeps coming up. It is like a magnet!!!! Interesting, none the less, and about that dynamo thing? :)

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/29dec_magneticfield/

Edit~~~~ wrong vid the first post, LOL




Out>>>>>>>>
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
212. Grothar
3:51 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good night my friend.


Good Night, Geoff-Boy. Don't forget to feed the chickens.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
211. Grothar
3:49 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Night Grandpa...

I Mean Grothar


Take your pick. LOL Take care!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
210. caneswatch
3:48 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Nite, hydrus, nite, Geoff, nite Patrap, nite canes and anyone else. Got to go. Say hello to the night shift for me. And Canes........GO TO SLEEP!!!!!


Good night good sir, and how many times do I have to say NO? LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
209. GeoffreyWPB
3:47 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Nite, hydrus, nite, Geoff, nite Patrap, nite canes and anyone else. Got to go. Say hello to the night shift for me. And Canes........GO TO SLEEP!!!!!


Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
208. GeoffreyWPB
3:46 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Nite, hydrus, nite, Geoff, nite Patrap, nite canes and anyone else. Got to go. Say hello to the night shift for me. And Canes........GO TO SLEEP!!!!!


Good night my friend.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
207. Patrap
3:45 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Night Grandpa...

I Mean Grothar
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
206. Grothar
3:44 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Nite, hydrus, nite, Geoff, nite Patrap, nite canes and anyone else. Got to go. Say hello to the night shift for me. And Canes........GO TO SLEEP!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
205. GeoffreyWPB
3:43 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


We could've got the same thing from Ike, but that high saved us big time.


img src="Hurricane Ike">
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
204. caneswatch
3:39 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Good night to all..:)


Night Hydrus!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
203. caneswatch
3:38 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, and one of them being trying to find someone to go outside and hold one of those things.

Personally, I think Andrew remains very close to those of us who experienced it. Never do I want to see anything like that again.


We could've got the same thing from Ike, but that high saved us big time.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
202. hydrus
3:37 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Good night to all..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
201. hydrus
3:35 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, and one of them being trying to find someone to go outside and hold one of those things.

Personally, I think Andrew remains very close to those of us who experienced it. Never do I want to see anything like that again.
Cyclone Oz comes to mind..I remember that night very well...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
200. hydrus
3:33 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

Not to mention that Andrew was moving at a relatively swift forward speed while traversing southern Florida. As such, the wind speed would be enhanced along the eastern half of the storm.
There were other indications of Andrews winds being over 200 mph. One of them was bark damage on palm trees from wind driven rain. They found concrete poles with the surface permeated from the rain blasting them.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
199. Grothar
3:28 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
LOL..Thats right.! A gust of 230 mph is realistic...I own several anemometers. I have a Maxima from the late 70,s.(which still works great)all the way up to a 2010 model. I know they tested a model identical to the one that measured the gust to 212, but the are to many mitigating factors to dismiss the reading recorded during the hurricane. The force of the torrential rain smashing against the backside of the cups could slow the instrument down. And if it was a pressure gauge, there still are possible problems for measuring winds at that speed.


Yes, and one of them being trying to find someone to go outside and hold one of those things.

Personally, I think Andrew remains very close to those of us who experienced it. Never do I want to see anything like that again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
198. hydrus
3:23 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It does not seem that long ago ..18 and a half years went pretty fast for me.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
196. GeoffreyWPB
3:15 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
195. Grothar
3:14 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For those who remember...the best ending to a T.V. show ever...



It is the funniest.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
194. hydrus
3:14 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

Not to mention that Andrew was moving at a relatively swift forward speed while traversing southern Florida. As such, the wind speed would be enhanced along the eastern half of the storm.
LOL..Thats right.! A gust of 230 mph is realistic...I own several anemometers. I have a Maxima from the late 70,s.(which still works great)all the way up to a 2010 model. I know they tested a model identical to the one that measured the gust to 212, but the are to many mitigating factors to dismiss the reading recorded during the hurricane. The force of the torrential rain smashing against the backside of the cups could slow the instrument down. And if it was a pressure gauge, there still are possible problems for measuring winds at that speed.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
192. pottery
3:10 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting presslord:


you make me sick...

hehehehehhh
Here, have a sip of this.
Make you feel better in no time at all....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24373
191. Grothar
3:08 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Tired. Way to much to do and not enough time to do it in...Did you happen to read the post I typed about Andrews wind speed?...


Most certainly did.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
190. hydrus
3:06 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, she rocked. How you doing hydrus? Saw you sneaking in.
Tired. Way to much to do and not enough time to do it in...Did you happen to read the post I typed about Andrews wind speed?...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
189. GeoffreyWPB
3:04 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
For those who remember...the best ending to a T.V. show ever...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
188. KoritheMan
3:04 AM GMT on February 08, 2011

Quoting hydrus:
And logically, if the storm had sustained winds of 165 mph, and the gusts are usually 20% to 25% higher, a gust well over 177 mph is a very good possibility.
Not to mention that Andrew was moving at a relatively swift forward speed while traversing southern Florida. As such, the wind speed would be enhanced along the eastern half of the storm.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
187. Patrap
3:04 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
www.solarcycle24.com


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Feb 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1153 (N15W56) produced several low level B-class
events. Region 1153 showed an increase in areal coverage, sunspot
count, and magnetic complexity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight change for C-class activity for the
next three days (08-10 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(08-10 February).

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
186. Grothar
3:01 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
I still think Betty was a better dish than Wilma.....Hurricane Betty ??


Yeah, she rocked. How you doing hydrus? Saw you sneaking in.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
185. hydrus
2:58 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting Grothar:



But Wilma was bad, too. It was no Andrew but worse than we expected. I swear that storm had TWO eyes.

I still think Betty was a better dish than Wilma.....Hurricane Betty ??
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
184. hydrus
2:56 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting presslord:


you make me sick...
The waves on the Carolinas are much more bigger...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
183. hydrus
2:54 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Like you, I believe that gusts were over 200 mph in Andrew. That hurricane was way too powerful and compact not to have 200+ mph gusts.
And logically, if the storm had sustained winds of 165 mph, and the gusts are usually 20% to 25% higher, a gust well over 177 mph is a very good possibility.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408
182. Grothar
2:54 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Like you, I believe that gusts were over 200 mph in Andrew. That hurricane was way too powerful and compact not to have 200 mph gusts.



But Wilma was bad, too. It was no Andrew but worse than we expected. I swear that storm had TWO eyes.

.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
181. sunlinepr
2:53 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Website: Chechen rebel leader claims airport bomb

MOSCOW – A website affiliated with Chechen rebels has released a video in which insurgent leader Doku Umarov claims responsibility for last month's deadly suicide bombing at Russia's largest airport and threatens more bloodshed if Russia does not leave the region.

Yahoo

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
180. presslord
2:49 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting pottery:

hehehehhhh.
Nice weather again today.
Max temp 88f
20 mph winds easterly (big waves, to 12 feet in open waters)
Occasional showers.
Great visibility.
Bliss!


you make me sick...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
179. GeoffreyWPB
2:42 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Andrew had practically no impact in my area. I was young and dumb…driving around in the storm and going to the beach watching the waves.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
178. Ossqss
2:36 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
174, gotta balance out Rick :)

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
177. caneswatch
2:30 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
It is my belief that there were gusts over 200 mph during Andrew, and probably higher. If my long term memory still works, I believe one of the giant stacks there was demolished because of structural damage. Those are not cheap. I drove right by the plant after the hurricane. The destruction in that area was so bad, It taxes satisfactory verbal description .


Like you, I believe that gusts were over 200 mph in Andrew. That hurricane was way too powerful and compact not to have 200+ mph gusts.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
176. Ossqss
2:22 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:
Two questions, this should stump someone here:

1. The Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant was hit by the severe part of Hurricane Andrew and yet, it wasn't significantly damaged and a bigger disaster was avoided. How so?

2. From Wiki:

The highest recorded surface gust, within Andrew's northern eyewall, occurred at the home of a resident about a mile from the shoreline in Perrine, Florida. During the peak of the storm, a gust of 212 miles per hour (341 km/h) was observed before both the home and anemometer were destroyed. Subsequent wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. The observed value was officially corrected to be 177 miles per hour (285 km/h).

Since Andrew was so powerful, what if it was 212 mph?


It is discussed here and specifically in the notes section, 13 and 14 :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Containment_building


"The Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station was hit directly by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Turkey Point has two fossil fuel units and two nuclear units. Over $90 million of damage was done, largely to a water tank and to a smokestack of one of the fossil-fueled units on-site, but the containment buildings were undamaged."
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
175. hydrus
2:21 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:
Two questions, this should stump someone here:

1. The Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant was hit by the severe part of Hurricane Andrew and yet, it wasn't significantly damaged and a bigger disaster was avoided. How so?

2. From Wiki:

The highest recorded surface gust, within Andrew's northern eyewall, occurred at the home of a resident about a mile from the shoreline in Perrine, Florida. During the peak of the storm, a gust of 212 miles per hour (341 km/h) was observed before both the home and anemometer were destroyed. Subsequent wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. The observed value was officially corrected to be 177 miles per hour (285 km/h).

Since Andrew was so powerful, what if it was 212 mph?
It is my belief that there were gusts over 200 mph during Andrew, and probably higher. If my long term memory still works, I believe one of the giant stacks there was demolished because of structural damage. Those are not cheap. I drove right by the plant after the hurricane. The destruction in that area was so bad, It taxes satisfactory verbal description .
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21408

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.