Renewed flooding in Sri Lanka kills 11, affects 1.05 million

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:21 AM GMT on February 07, 2011

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Renewed flooding in Sri Lanka due to heavy monsoon rains has killed at least 11 people and inundated the homes of 1.05 million people over the past week. The floods occurred over the central, north, and east portions of the island, and have the potential to devastate the rice crop and cause hundreds of millions in damage. Many of the areas affected were also hard-hit by January's 100-year flood, which killed 43 people, affected over 1 million people, and did at least $500 million in damage. Those floods destroyed 21% of Sri Lanka's rice crop. Heavy rains from the annual northeastern monsoon are common in the region from December through February, but this year's rains have been enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. According to the United Nations, the rains in January in Sri Lanka were the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping. The flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Satellite estimates of rainfall over Sri Lanka for the first week of February show that up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain has fallen. The latest rainfall forecast from the GFS model projects that a tropical disturbance (91B) near Sri Lanka will bring an additional 1 - 3 inches of rain to the flood area this week, so the flood waters will be slow to recede.


Figure 1. AP video of the latest flooding in Sri Lanka.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 7080734:
What do you think 2011's Severe Weather Season will be like with la Nina dieing down?


Similar to 2008's I would hazard to guess..
Higher than normal tornado season. Average amount (vs less than amount last season) of thunderstorms over the summer in Florida. And of course - a more active hurricane season, though probably less than 2010's, more like 15-17 named.
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Quoting 7080734:
What do you think 2011's Severe Weather Season will be like with la Nina dieing down?
I think we could see an active server weather season.Especially with this up coming pattern change.
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WPTV Storm Team 5
West Palm Beach

Gusty winds continue across Florida ahead of a cold front that will swing through overnight. Wind gusts approaching 40mph, but are not expected to get any higher. Much cooler tomorrow.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11321
What do you think 2011's Severe Weather Season will be like with la Nina dieing down?
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Quoting 7080734:

So, is the La Nina dieing down?


Correct, should be neutral by hurricane season.
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Nice lookin' storms are coming this way. It might be another stormy night.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Skyepony:
Region 1.2 is up to 0.


So, is the La Nina dieing down?
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Skyepony, did he explain where the pot of gold was.Thought I'd clear that up.
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Quoting Patrap:
We found this a tad interesting for a change of entry..


Do Indulge and stroll thru it if you will,..


How did I miss that one? I could have been on a roll for days with that material.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
We found this a tad interesting for a change of entry..


Do Indulge and stroll thru it if you will,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
65. Skyepony (Mod)
Region 1.2 is up to 0.

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Every Home should have at least 1 NOAA weather ALERT Radio.


It may save you and your Families Life .



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
63. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




He had a blog about rainbows once..
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KOG - Thanks for the warning. I just call my daughter-in-law to warn her and have her check her local weather station in Tampa.
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Magnitude 6.2 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2011 February 07 19:53:42 UTC
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Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Disaster is exiting to us. I feel it too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Funny you should mention that, did you see this?

DELRAY BEACH — With blue- and purple-colored, balloon-looking animals lining the beach all weekend, it's not hard to believe Delray Beach Ocean Rescue's James Scala when he says 197 people were stung by Portuguese man-of-war on Sunday alone.

Scala said 46 people were stung Friday, and another 84 on Saturday at Delray Beach.

Clint Tracy, a Boca Raton Ocean Rescue captain, said the man-of-war were first seen on the beach Thursday.

Lifeguards flew purple warning signs to notify swimmers.

He said many of the man-of-war were probably pushed to the shore by winds blowing east.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.





These are desperate times my friend!

And the weather/climate is the culprit.
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Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Back to the news axiom. "If it bleeds - it leads!"
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Quoting tkeith:
I just voted in the poll Doc has up, and when I saw the results, I was kinda shocked.
The comments on Wonderpress blog are overwhelmingly negative. The results of the poll are overwhelmingly positive.

"hanging chads"?



That seems to be consistent with the regulars around
here, par for the course.


http://sidc.oma.be/

Solar activity at all time low, I wonder what that
will be construed as, we'll see.
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Afternoon............Impressive looking squall line for this time of the year approching Central and South Florida. Hopefully nothing too severe emerge from this one but I don't like the pattern that seems to be setting up for March and April when the stronger ones will show up.
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51. Skyepony (Mod)
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 300 PM EST

* AT 212 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRESCENT CITY...OR 7 MILES EAST OF SALT
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CRESCENT CITY...ANDALUSIA...BUNNELL...PALM COAST AND FLAGLER BEACH.


radar
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We just got a surprise from the weather here in Flagler County, a Tornado Warning is now in effect for me.
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we dont have hills here on the east coast of florida but we got some serious winds todays bike ride was like riding in a wind tunnel if yu feel the pain you know your alive
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey everyone ... now that Superbowl is over, gearing up for The Season.

Hope everyone is enjoying a nice winter, be it snowy or otherwise.

Hey dont forget Nascar starts next weekend and the big race in 2 weeks. Very nice line of storms off the Tampa gulf. Look out Jedkins01 your first in line for those storms.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey everyone ... now that Superbowl is over, gearing up for The Season.

Hope everyone is enjoying a nice winter, be it snowy or otherwise.


WOW!!! It's DJ!!!! Great to see you again. You have been missed.
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This La Ninja event is turning out to be really bad for us we are getting very little moister
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST MON FEB 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071844Z - 072015Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CNTRL FL. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

A CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM THE FL COAST TO ABOUT 120 STATUTE
MILES TO THE WEST OF TAMPA BAY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY VEERED SFC WINDS...50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MAKE
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE
INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/07/2011
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16760
Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey everyone ... now that Superbowl is over, gearing up for The Season.

Hope everyone is enjoying a nice winter, be it snowy or otherwise.



DJ!

You gonna stick around this time?
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Solar activity forecasts for February are looking bleak:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Actually the SPC does have something to say about it...

Y 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST MON FEB 07 2011

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...FL...

90 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OBSERVED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH BASAL PORTION OF UPPER
TROUGH...SUPPORTING OVERALL INTENSIFICATION OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AS IT
TRANSLATES EWD ALONG GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
OBSERVED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO /S OF PNS/ AS OF MID MORNING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD TO VICINITY OF THE FL BIG BEND BY AFTERNOON
BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS
FEATURE LIKELY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE...RADAR AND LDS DATA INDICATE AN ACTIVE
CORRIDOR OF TSTMS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG AND S OF WARM
FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ATTENDANT TO
ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MOBILE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS TODAY WITHIN
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AOB 500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD BY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP SWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 45-50 KT. AS
SUCH...SOME RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED/LONGER-LIVED STORMS WILL EXIST
WITHIN BROADER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
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Quoting reedzone:
The SPC needs to issue a MESODISCUSSION for Florida very soon as a surprise squall line continues to strengthen as it moves east. At least they have a SEE TEXT on the convective outlooks, a watch may be required if the squall line gains more strength.


I know, it is ridiculous. I don't think there will be a bunch of severe warnings, but a warning or 2 for straight line wind warnings can't be ruled out, moisture levels are very high, the dew point is very high, plenty of warm air, and a significant low level jet will be feeding the line...

It's really weird, the local MET's have been showing multiple different computer models for the last few days that show a strong line of storms moving into Florida today, yet they too have been downplaying it and saying words like "some scattered showers developing like last night".

Really? A line of strong thunderstorms ahead of the cold front isn't exactly similar to the periods stable rain showers overrunning a warm front we had last night...


They are usually very good at being on top of things locally, but they just aren't getting it today for some reason, which is quite odd considering computer models have been saying the cold front will bring a significant line of thunderstorms.
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The SPC needs to issue a MESODISCUSSION for Florida very soon as a surprise squall line continues to strengthen as it moves east. At least they have a SEE TEXT on the convective outlooks, a watch may be required if the squall line gains more strength.
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Auz really left, right and center in the climate chaos now emerging...

Outback storms leave an inland sea in South Austrailia
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=108083612603530&id=139434822741700
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37. Skyepony (Mod)
Queensland (Toowoomba) is having more freak flooding. A thunderstorm dumped 2 1/2 inches in an hour & a 1/2.


pmagn~ The progression does seem stepwise.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

What about it don't you like? You can go here and list your grievances...but I like the new format. Great improvement overall...


I like it too. I think some people are just apposed to change in general. As for me I'm all for change if it is improvement.
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Scientist calls for more attention to climate change

By David Baugher, Special to the Beacon
Posted 10:42 am, Tue., 2.1.11


Ralph Cicerone is a pessimist when it comes to public awareness concerning climate change. “I don’t think enough people are paying attention,” he said in an interview.

But he is not without hope.

Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences and chair of the National Research Council, tried to capture some of that public attention during a presentation at the St. Louis Science Center Monday evening. Although the live audience may have been sparse because of the weather (more than 300 RSVP’d ), it was broadcast on HEC-TV and relayed live to 24 other science centers.




Ralph Cicerone has a long history on the issue of climate change.

The Franklin Institute recognized his work on greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in 1999 by naming him laureate for the Bower Award and Prize for Achievement in Science.

Two years later, he led a National Academy of Sciences study of the current state of climate change at the request of President George W. Bush.

In 2007, the University of Michigan created a distinguished professorship of atmospheric science in his honor.

He has also served as president of the Geophysical Union, the world’s largest society of Earth scientists.

His appearance was timed to coincide with an exhibit on climate change by the science center.

Backed by an array of charts, illustrations and cartoons, Cicerone demonstrated the shifts in temperature that have alternated in lengthy cycles of ice ages and warm periods throughout the planet’s history.

“These kinds of changes happen,” he said, “but we wouldn’t be here tonight if it weren’t for the fact that we know humans can cause these kinds of changes also and are becoming more potent at doing so.”

He said that strong evidence suggests human-produced greenhouse gases are affecting the world’s climate.

The amount of energy expended by humans from all sources from coal and gasoline to biomass and hydroelectric are only about 1/9000 the energy of the approximately 237 watts per square meter the sun delivers to the Earth. But the effect of that energy consumption, through production of such greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, may have more significant effects.

“The extra heat energy trapped in the atmosphere by the addition of greenhouse gases due to humans is now more than 1 percent as big as the sunlight total – 2.6 watts per square meter,” he said. “That’s causing us to realize that humans are capable of changing Earth’s climate.”

Carbon dioxide levels have risen by one-quarter since the 1950s, Cicerone said. Methane and nitrous oxide levels have also shown significant increases. Research on ice cores has demonstrated corresponding hikes in global temperature are associated with a boost in the amount of these gases.

About 85 percent of the excess carbon dioxide is thought to be the result of burning fossil fuels, while 15 percent is believed to occur from deforestation.

Cicerone said that the main alternate theory for temperature increase is no longer tenable. Research has revealed that the roughly 11-year solar cycle is not to blame for the changes in climate over the last few decades.

“The idea that the sun itself is causing this change is now disproven,” he said. “This 30-year period that I’ve been talking about is special in human history for another reason, namely that it’s the first period in history where we’ve been able to measure the sun well enough to be able to say if it is changing or not.”

Sea levels are certainly changing. Cicerone noted an approximately 16-centimeter increase since 1880. Since 1992, more accurate figures have shown a rise of 3.3 millimeters annually, double the previously believed rate. It’s thought an expansion of warmer sea water and the loss of ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica are factors in the change.

“We can see where sea level rise is coming from,” he said. “It doesn’t mean you can predict them but at least the numbers add up.”

WORLDWIDE RESPONSE needed

Meanwhile, solutions are difficult and increasingly must involve cooperation between technologically advanced nations and the Third World, he said.

“What’s in the atmosphere now has come from developed countries and what’s going to be in it in the future is coming much more from developing countries,” he said. “This presents a real challenge for people who are trying to reach some kind of equitable agreement on how to handle this problem.”

Coal presents a particularly thorny problem.

“Given that it’s a domestic energy source, there’s a powerful incentive to use it,” Cicerone said. “But it releases more carbon dioxide than virtually any other fossil fuel. This is the kind of challenge that we face if we are going to slow down climate change.”

Cicerone felt that climate science should play a dual role by both decelerating climate change and helping to study and prepare for the eventual results of alterations in the Earth’s climate.

“The biggest effects will probably be in what we call extreme events, like droughts and heat waves and floods and storm surges and so forth,” he said. “We’ll see a lot more things we’re not accustomed to.”

Cicerone took questions from the live audience and responded to email queries from other participating science centers.

One audience member asked about the involvement of scientists in taking their case into the political arena.

Cicerone said it was important for researchers to steer clear of political biases and remain nonpartisan. He said the general attitude today struck a good balance between direct involvement and the more reserved ethos prevalent in his youth.

“The unwritten rule was that you did not talk to the public about your research,” he said. “I would say scientists are more willing now to do the talking so I think we’ve got it about right.”

Cicerone said that taking steps on sustainability issues would likely require hard choices but could also represent a “win-win” situation. He suggested that increasing energy efficiency, which can save money and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, presents a possible benefit to national security.

Such advantages also support the idea that a lack of ironclad evidence doesn’t justify remaining idle.

“We have a lot of other types of human activity where we don’t require absolute proof before we take action,” he said.

Interviewed afterward, Cicerone said he was unsure whether people would act in time to make prudent choices on cutting back carbon emissions.

“I wish I could say yes but I don’t know,” he said. “There are two ways in which humans change their behavior. One is if they see crises and the other is if they can respond to a slow accumulation of rational indications. I hope there’s no crisis that comes. I’d rather see us respond to this slow accumulation of facts and rational conclusions.”

JUST THE FACTS

Phil Needleman, interim president of both the St. Louis Science Center and the Danforth Plant Science Center, said the presentation had been forthright and revealing.

“What people heard was facts. Science is about facts,” he said. “It wasn’t controversy. It wasn’t theories. It was a rich core of data that was elegantly laid out.”

Audience members Tom Applewhite and Steven Donner, each 24, agreed. The city residents are starting a renewable energy consulting company and said they stopped by to gain insight on the topic of global warming.

“One thing we’ve been doing is staying away from this issue so as not to cause clients any type of anger or frustration because we don’t know their views on climate change,” Applewhite said. “But after tonight I feel I can speak more freely about the issue because I have more of an informed opinion.”

David Baugher is a freelance writer in St. Louis. To reach him, contact Beacon health editor Sally J. Altman.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thank you, Dr. Masters. Very sad. Another disaster causing chaos, confusion, and heartache, while also devastating staple food crops, meaning that there'll be rising prices and more going hungry. These 1-in-100 year weather events sure do seem to be coming with increasing frequency. 1-in-20 year events? 1-in-10 years? 1-in-5? Or how about the new status quo: annually?

Sure do hope things stabilize soon... :-\


Yes, looking more like a 3-7yr cycle now. Seems to correspond to the warm peaks
1998, 2003, 2005, 2010.

We, however, also seem to be in a new climate state.
Also, is the progression stepwise rather than continuos?

Earth Watch: Arctic canary looking sicker than ever
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=108140875930735&id=139434822741700

"...for the region as a whole, the canary is already toppling off its perch."

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the system approaching the west coast of Florida is being downplayed, a 60% chance of showers? Yeah right, there's a squall line headed this way. I don't think there will be a severe weather out break or anything, but there will certainly be more than "showers". There will certainly be some strong thunderstorms, maybe an isolated severe thunderstorm or 2 is possible.

Thew point is 69 right now... Extremely high for winter time. The PWAT is 1.89, we are gonna get a nice line of storms!
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Quoting taistelutipu:
lilElla, just replace the www in the link with classic, so instead of having http://www.wunderground.com/ you'd type http://classic.wunderground.com/

Edit your bookmarks and they'll lead you straight to the old layout.


Thank you kindly! :)
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lilElla, just replace the www in the link with classic, so instead of having http://www.wunderground.com/ you'd type http://classic.wunderground.com/

Edit your bookmarks and they'll lead you straight to the old layout.
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Listen to all this alarmist bunk: the site has changed, the site has changed!

Can anyone prove the site has changed? Sites change all the time, every day CNN has a new page. You only have a few days (DAYS!) of data.

This is all part of a liberal plot to take over the internet.
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How can I change the view to "classic"?

Thanks!
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28. IKE
There...I just registered my complaint.
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27. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.



Have you reported this in the wunderpress blog? They are still looking for feedback...

........................................................................................

Nope.....not yet. I'm content using the classic set-up.

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Hmmm. No member info on me and I had to re-login to post this comment
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Looks like Zaka has pretty much disintegrated....

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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