Ice storm cripples Houston; Yasi the 2nd costliest Australian storm on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on February 04, 2011

Share this Blog
5
+

A significant ice storm is in progress across southeast Texas, much of Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and southern Arkansas this morning, as the latest onslaught from the memorable winter of 2010 - 2011 continues. Houston, Texas recorded 1/10" - 1/4" inch of ice so far from the storm, resulting in a crippling of that city's transportation system. Numerous crashes have closed many area roads, and flights at local airports have been largely halted. Snowfalls of 1 - 3 inches will occur today along the northern edge of the ice storm region, in a swath from northeast Texas to western Kentucky. The storm will move into New England on Saturday, but will not bring heavy snow. The next chance for heavy snow occurs next Wednesday and Thursday, when the GFS model is predicting the formation of a winter storm capable of dropping a foot of snow in the Appalachians and inland areas of New England. However, it is too early to put much faith in this forecast.


Figure 1. Trees snapped off along the Chicago lakefront by winds from the Blizzard of 2011. Image credit: viewer uploaded photo from WGN.

Revisiting the Chicago blizzard
This week's blizzard in Chicago dropped 20.2" of snow on the city, Chicago's third-greatest snowstorm on record. But the tremendous winds that accompanied the blizzard--gusting to 61 mph at O'Hare Airport, and 70 mph at the Lakefront--made the storm Chicago's worst-ever blizzard as far as impacts on travel. Another remarkable feature of the storm were the intense thunderstorms that developed. According to an excellent write-up on the storm posted by the Chicago National Weather Service office, the Blizzard of 2011 had 63 lightning strikes, and several reports of hail. The most extraordinary hourly observation I've ever seen in a U.S. winter storm came at 9:51pm on February 1 at Chicago's Midway Field: A heavy thunderstorm with lightning, heavy snow, small hail or ice pellets, freezing fog, blowing snow, visibility 300 feet, a wind gust of 56 mph, and a temperature of 21°F. Welcome to the Midwest! Thanks go to meteorologist Steve Gregory for pointing this observation out to me.


Figure 2. Snow amounts from the February 1 - 3 blizzard of 2011 peaked at over 2 feet along the shore of Lake Michigan between Chicago and Milwaukee. Strong northeasterly winds pulled moist air off of the Lake in this region, allowing the "lake effect" to enhance the blizzard's snows in this region. Image credit: Chicago National Weather Service office.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi the second most damaging storm in Australia's history
Tropical Cyclone Yasi has dissipated, but the damage totals from the storm make it Australia's second most expensive tropical cyclone of all-time, according to Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. The storm's $3.5 billion price tag is second only to Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, doing $3.6 billion in damage (2011 dollars.) Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time on Thursday as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. The cyclone missed the most populous cities on the coast, Cairns and Townsville, but damaged up to 90% of the buildings in the small towns near where the eye passed--Tully, Mission Beach, and Cardwell. A storm surge of 5.4 meters (17.7 feet) was observed at Cardwell, and there was substantial surge damage at the coast. Fortunately, the storm surge hit near low tide, resulting in a storm tide--the height of the water above land--of about 4.5 meters, more than 2 meters below what would have occurred had Yasi hit at high tide. Yasi moved quickly enough across Queensland after landfall so that major flooding was limited to just three locations near the coast. Yasi's central pressure of 930 mb at landfall made the storm the most intense recorded in Queensland since at least 1918, and possibly since 1899. In 1918, there were two cyclones (at Mackay and Innisfail) with measured pressures in the upper 920s/low 930s, but it is quite plausible that the minimum central pressures were lower than that. The 1899 (Mahina/Bathurst Bay) cyclone had a measured pressure (ship near shore) of 914 mb.


Figure 3. The tide gauge at Carwell, Australia during passage of Tropical Cyclone Yasi recorded a 5.4 meter (17.7') storm surge (red line). Since the surge came near low tide, the storm tide--the height of the surge above mean water--was only 4.5 meters (blue line). The storm tide would have been more than 2 meters higher had Yasi hit at high tide, and the damage from coastal flooding would have been huge. The green line shows the expected water levels at Cardwell due to the tide. Image credit: Queensland government.


Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 04:15 UTC February 3, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

Yasi Damage Tully Nth Qld (AliHirst62)
Butler St Tully Nth Qld
Yasi Damage Tully Nth Qld
Chicago Blizzard 2011 (ChicagoMike)
Digging out....over 20 inches of snow and drifts in the 3 to 5 foot range.
Chicago Blizzard 2011
()
Snow Drifts in Central Missouri (tucktan)
Looking outside our front door in Columbia, MO.
Snow Drifts in Central Missouri
RoofShovel (luvne32)
Ice dams are forming, not good for water infiltrating walls
RoofShovel

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 331 - 281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index


.."It is the Summer of my Smile,,Flee from me, keeper's of the Gloom"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
The Washington Post

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen , Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

====================
I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922 , as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post - 88 years ago!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


You obviously haven't read the news. AGW is being blamed for the snow. That's a fact.

How to win any argument:

3. Ignore your opponent's proposition, which was intended to refer to some particular thing. Rather, understand it in some quite different sense, and then refute it. Attack something different than what was asserted.

AGW is global warming. It is not Snowmageddon even if people relate warming to increased water vapor to increased precipitation to increased wintry precipitation to increased snow. Hmmmm, that's a long chain to reach increased snow from AGW. The issue is AGW, not increased snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
328. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting guygee:




P.S. we are all small farmers so why raise inedible and useless centipede grass when we could be supplementing our diet with healthy, low-maintenance alternatives?



Hey neighbor..

Haven't had a gas lawn mower in a few years now. The winter rye is the pasture variety so I don't have to feed a bunch of hay all winter to the ponies. Summer I grow Bermuda/Bahia with some clover. My neighbors complain how bad grass grows here..how much they spend on it & they all had that instant centipede/St Augustine lawn you ripped up. It's really just a nice carpet the developers can lay & say done. Terrible grass to try & keep on the Space Coast.

Wood sorrel grows good in the lawn here, fixes nitrogen & is edible. I've got Dandelion too. If you want some local seed~ WUmail me. People used to grow edible lawns til they were convinced by big ag that was all weeds, that they needed round-up & to go buy some less nutritious iceberg lettuce.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnbone:
img src="Photobucket">
LOL!From Feb 3

Why stop at the Canadian border? Typical cherry-picking, like an updated "How to lie with Geo-Spatial Statistics". Ever read the original? Let's see the same data for the Northern Hemisphere all the way up to 90 degree North. Oops!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Dr. Jeff Masters on "Heavy snowfall in a warming world"
February 8, 2010


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Map's wrong. No way there's 2-4" of snow in southern NC. There was only some light freezing rain/sleet yesterday.


Ok, you're right. I think the radar thought a lot of the precip there yesterday was snow. Must've had inaccurate upper-atmospheric obs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How extreme weather could create a global food crisis


KARACHI (updated on: 2011-02-05 15:41:30 PST):

United States National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration reported that 2010 tied 2005 for the hottest year on record – and was the wettest year on record. This is no coincidence.

As Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis of National Centre for Atmospheric Research, explained:

There is a systematic influence on all of these weather events nowadays because there is more water vapour lurking around in atmosphere than there used to be, say, 30 years ago. It's about a 4% extra amount, provides plenty of moisture for these storms and it is unfortunate that public is not associating this with the fact that this is one manifestation of climate change. And prospects are that these kinds of things will only get worse in the future.

Globally, 2010 saw 19 nations – a record number – set temperature records including Pakistan, which hit 53.5C, the hottest temperature ever reliably measured in Asia's history. From mid-December to mid-

January of this year, National Centre for Atmospheric research NCAR reported that parts of north-eastern Canada were 21C above average, "which are very large values to be sustained for an entire month." In mid-December, Greenland experienced the most extreme high-pressure system of its kind ever recorded anywhere on the planet. Last year saw the greatest ice melt on record for Greenland.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Quoting johnbone:
There is only one state in the CONUS with no snow on the ground. Care to take a guess which one it it? ;)

Link


Map's wrong. No way there's 2-4" of snow in southern NC. There was only some light freezing rain/sleet yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866

Warm weather breaks 60-year record


Mild January is in stark contrast to 2009 when city was hit with major snow
Danielle Bell, Daily News; with a file from Canwest News Service
Published: Monday, February 01, 2010

Nanaimo celebrated its warmest January on record in more than six decades, since data from this city was first compiled by Environment Canada.

Record temperatures last month were warmer than those seen in an average March.

The city plowed through the normally coldest month of the year with the mercury far above average levels, often hitting the double digits.


It is a far cry from last winter, when Nanaimoites were bombarded with record amounts of snow. The white stuff in 2008 cancelled school classes, shut down streets, sold out snow shovels and led to headaches for emergency crews, who scrambled to cope after a metre of snow fell.

This year Nanaimoites may have El Nino, a warm Pacific Ocean current that occurs every few years, to thank for the milder temperatures.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
img src="Photobucket">


LOL!

From Feb 3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DEKRE:


Obviously, this is as silly as your insistence that it is not.

It will take at least a decade before we can form an opinion.

You know that. And I know you know that.


You obviously haven't read the news. AGW is being blamed for the snow. That's a fact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My fingers keep hitting the wrong keys....In the words of the reknowed Dr. Bones McCoy.......Dammit Jim
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
Another south-east snow potential for Thursday.





Anyone know the record for SEUS snow storms in a single season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Its too late! Man is not going to change. Too arrogant!

I love when people say it is too late. Scott39 maked the rules so I guess I need to obey them.....Scott.......Let's talk.or not
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

I am in Palm Beach county...........number 8 in the most disliked place in the USA.....


Is it really that bad there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
On last night's Real Time with Bill Maher, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson nicely summed up my feelings when he said the following in response to someone who said they didn't believe in either AGW or evolution: "See, the thing about science is that it doesn't care whether or what you or I or anyone else believes. It just is."

IOW: all the denialism and Big Energy dollars and right-wing political obfuscation in the universe isn't going to cool the planet. The only thing that will cause that to happen is immediate action--if, that is, it's not too late...
Its too late! Man is not going to change. Too arrogant!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

johnbone..I don't recall your name...BUT..I hope you are one of the good guys......OR....


I've been on WU since 2005 as a lurker.....but never got to much posting. Trying to become a little more active recently.

So, yeah, I hope I'm one of the good guys.....lol
(;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnbone:
There is only one state in the CONUS with no snow on the ground. Care to take a guess which one it it? ;)

Link

I am in Palm Beach county...........number 8 in the most disliked place in the USA.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is only one state in the CONUS with no snow on the ground. Care to take a guess which one it it? ;)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnbone:


LOL

Welcome to the off-season!

johnbone..I don't recall your name...BUT..I hope you are one of the good guys......OR....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another south-east snow potential for Thursday.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Bueller, Bueller, Bueller
Anyone..Anyone...Anyone..
Looks like a Silverback battle .AGAIN


LOL

Welcome to the off-season!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bueller, Bueller, Bueller
Anyone..Anyone...Anyone..
Looks like a Silverback battle .AGAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Only insofar as some politicians--and one party--have inserted themselves into the science behind AGWT.


From my perspective, it seems that BOTH parties are invested in the "science" of AGW, just on differing sides. Just as they are on many other issues that really shouldn't be political to begin with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh, and comparing the validity of natural selection with AGW is absurd. One of those is almost undeniably true (to a certain extent), while the other is still, for all intents and purposes, still a hypothesis undergoing testing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnbone:


Once again, you're inserting politics into the blog.

Only insofar as some politicians--and one party--have inserted themselves into the science behind AGWT.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
Quoting Neapolitan:
On last night's Real Time with Bill Maher, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson nicely summed up my feelings when he said the following in response to someone who said they didn't believe in either AGW or evolution: "See, the thing about science is that it doesn't care whether or what you or I or anyone else believes. It just is."

IOW: all the denialism and Big Energy dollars and right-wing obfuscation in the universe isn't going to cool the planet. The only thing that will cause that to happen is immediate action--if, that is, it's not too late...


Once again, you're inserting politics into the blog.

That said, I agree with your premise here: all the whining and arguing in the world isn't going to clean up the planet. Society needs less "talk" and more "do."

Everyone should do their part in reducing their carbon dioxide footprint, regardless of his/her beliefs on the validity of AGW....or even man's impact on our environment in general.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On last night's Real Time with Bill Maher, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson nicely summed up my feelings when he said the following in response to someone who said they didn't believe in either AGW or evolution: "See, the thing about science is that it doesn't care whether or what you or I or anyone else believes. It just is."

IOW: all the denialism and Big Energy dollars and right-wing political obfuscation in the universe isn't going to cool the planet. The only thing that will cause that to happen is immediate action--if, that is, it's not too late...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
Quoting Patrap:



Climate Maker Ocean Conveyor Belt NASA Thermohaline Circulation




A major climate maker Thermohaline Circulation. The oceans are mostly composed of warm salty water near the surface over cold, less salty water in the ocean depths. These two regions don't mix except in certain special areas. The ocean currents, the movement of the ocean in the surface layer, are driven mostly by the wind. In certain areas near the polar oceans, the colder surface water also gets saltier due to evaporation or sea ice formation. In these regions, the surface water becomes dense enough to sink to the ocean depths. This pumping of surface water into the deep ocean forces the deep water to move horizontally until it can find an area on the world where it can rise back to the surface and close the current loop. This usually occurs in the equatorial ocean, mostly in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This very large, slow current is called the thermohaline circulation because it is caused by temperature and salinity (haline) variations.

This animation shows one of the major regions where this pumping occurs, the North Atlantic Ocean around Greenland, Iceland, and the North Sea. The surface ocean current brings new water to this region from the South Atlantic via the Gulf Stream and the water returns to the South Atlantic via the North Atlantic Deep Water current. The continual influx of warm water into the North Atlantic polar ocean keeps the regions around Iceland and southern Greenland mostly free of sea ice year round.




Cool stuff, this deserves a repost.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


"A key belief of climate science theology"...

NEXT!!


Perfect example of "ignore (no matter the science) what I don't like". LOL


Physicist U.R. Rao, has no credentials, right!

Year Positions held
1988, Chairman, PRL Council, ISRO-DOS
2005 - Chairman, Karnataka Science & Technology Academy
2007 - Additional Director, Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Pvt. Ltd., Bangalore
2007 - President, Centre for Space Physics, Kolkata
2006-2011 Chancellor, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow
2006-2010 Member, Central Board of Directors, Reserve Bank of India.
2007 Chairman, Governing Council of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
1997 - Co-Chairman, Governing Council of National Center for Antarctic & Ocean Research, Goa
1981-2001 Member, Space Commission, Government of India
2001-2002 Chairman, Prasar Bharati Board
1997-2001 Member, Prasar Bharati Board
1998-2001 Member, National Security Advisory Board
1997-2000 Chairman, United Nations - Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN-COPUOS)
1994-1999 Dr. Vikram Sarabhai Distinguished Professor of the Department of Space
1984-1994 Chairman, Space Commission/Secretary, Department of Space, Government of India &
Chairman, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)
1975-1984 Director, ISRO Satellite Centre, Bangalore
1972-1975 Project Director, Indian Scientific Satellite Project, Bangalore
1969-1972 Professor, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad
1966-1969 Associate Professor, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad.
1963-1966 Asst. Professor at S.W. Centre for Advanced Research, Dallas, Texas
1961-1963 Post Doctoral Fellow MIT, USA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
UNYSIS 10-Day 1000-50mb GFSx Loop


Showing a nice break from the constant barrage of storms in mid-February.

The Troughs seem to be taking a more SW-NE type course across the US as well, typical of a LA Nina winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
The loss of a massive "tongue" of glacial ice on the Antarctic coast a natural protective barrier nearly four times the size of New York City could affect ocean circulation patterns and be a harbinger of changes to come from global warming, scientists on a mission to the frozen continent say. more here


Thank you Skyepony for keeping us all up-to-date on the consequences of our rapidly changing climate. Even neglecting the other very dire future effects of AGW, a slowdown or shutdown of the thermohaline circulation will have very terrible consequences in the long-term. I wish all the good god-fearing people on this blog would pull their heads out of the swamp of highly-financed corporate propaganda and start realizing how their current choices constitute a great sin against future generations, involving the almost unimaginable suffering and deaths of billions of our descendants. The first order effect of a shutdown in the thermohaline circulation would be a closing off of the vast majority of ocean water as a carbon sink. It gets worse from there. Look into the science of former mass extinction events for further details.

As was the case last year, the mid-latitudes are experiencing cold conditions and record-breaking winter storms, while many Arctic areas experience the warmest weather in the historical record. Some areas are smashing records with daytime high temperatures over 22C (~40F)above normal Meanwhile, on the Space Coast the same weather that killed my six coconut trees last winter persisted into December this year, with a freeze killing of my new mango and cashew trees I put in as replacements.

Quoting Skyepony:

I got 86F here at the moment. I think I can hear my winter rye dying...


I killed my invasive Chinese-imported centipede-grass lawn this winter and planted a variety of low-growing edibles, as well as nitrogen fixers such as several clovers and the native "sensitive plant", along with a couple of halophytes such as (edible) sea purslane. I threw in a few Arugula seeds for good measure, and now I have at least a years supply of Arugula, somewhat like spinach except spicier and lacking the anti-nutritive oxalic acid.. It is all one big experiment, and the summer heat will determine the final outcome.

P.S. we are all small farmers so why raise inedible and useless centipede grass when we could be supplementing our diet with healthy, low-maintenance alternatives? Thomas Jefferson's vision of the United States is being validated by recent events. but is being blocked by the self-appointed temporary "Masters of the Universe". My advice: hone your third-world skill-set.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Climate Maker Ocean Conveyor Belt NASA Thermohaline Circulation




A major climate maker Thermohaline Circulation. The oceans are mostly composed of warm salty water near the surface over cold, less salty water in the ocean depths. These two regions don't mix except in certain special areas. The ocean currents, the movement of the ocean in the surface layer, are driven mostly by the wind. In certain areas near the polar oceans, the colder surface water also gets saltier due to evaporation or sea ice formation. In these regions, the surface water becomes dense enough to sink to the ocean depths. This pumping of surface water into the deep ocean forces the deep water to move horizontally until it can find an area on the world where it can rise back to the surface and close the current loop. This usually occurs in the equatorial ocean, mostly in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This very large, slow current is called the thermohaline circulation because it is caused by temperature and salinity (haline) variations.

This animation shows one of the major regions where this pumping occurs, the North Atlantic Ocean around Greenland, Iceland, and the North Sea. The surface ocean current brings new water to this region from the South Atlantic via the Gulf Stream and the water returns to the South Atlantic via the North Atlantic Deep Water current. The continual influx of warm water into the North Atlantic polar ocean keeps the regions around Iceland and southern Greenland mostly free of sea ice year round.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
UNYSIS 10-Day 1000-50mb GFSx Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
295. Skyepony (Mod)
Levi~ I think a strong Neg or Pos AO both could cause ice loss. It has to be strong so there is a wicked gradient to produce winds to push the ice. The difference was that ice is lost in different areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Serving America was my greatest Privilege friend.


Sharing here is a pleasure.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Quoting Patrap:
I go with the Published known data from the Source files on the Solar input and its role.


That Data is on Filer and increased everyday.

NOAA and others Peer reviewed and accepted Agency's words are explicit as to that "Null" rate of influence.

I dont need to go to any Wu-blogs for "Biased" info in that regard.

Ever.


OK, I guess we'll see what the future holds, and if your government agency's' "explicit" statements are as infallible as you make them out to be, seeing how humans are only wrong when they don't work for NOAA or are peer-reviewed by their like-minded counterparts in the field.

That said, I'll do my part in cleaning the earth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:
Psssttt!

Cosmic rays contribute 40 p.c. to global warming: study

Sorry, can't share the paper :)


"A key belief of climate science theology"...

NEXT!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I go with the Published known data from the Source files on the Solar input and its role.


That Data is on Filer and increased everyday.

NOAA and others Peer reviewed and accepted Agency's words are explicit as to that "Null" rate of influence.

I dont need to go to any Wu-blogs for "Biased" info in that regard.

Ever.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Psssttt!

Cosmic rays contribute 40 p.c. to global warming: study

Sorry, can't share the paper :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Climate models are pretty bad at predicting the uncertainties that exist even in a deterministic complex system. That's why human predictions and studies of natural variabilities are equally necessary.


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..Though their course may change some time, Rivers alway's reach the Sea"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866




Climate Change Impacts



Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: Report Home Page

The most comprehensive, authoritative report on Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States was released on Tuesday June 16th, 2009. This report presents, in plain language, the science and impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It focuses on climate change impacts on U.S. regions and various aspects of society and the economy such as energy, water, agriculture, and health. A comprehensive series of web-pages were developed that highlight the findings and major conclusions of the report and contain complete downloadable files of the report, as well as a host of additional content on climate change impacts on the U.S.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
By the way, which was warmer, January 2011 or 2008?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.



Let's see what happens over the prolonged solar minimum this decade. Solar energy builds at a "normal" wavelength-let's see what happens when the earth has time to actually discharge energy. After all, the Sun's energy received by the atmosphere is FAR from constant, and is a variable often overlooked by biased climatologists.

Levi has posted much information on this topic in prior blogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i know its a ways out,but im going up to nyc feb18-24th are the long range models hinting at colder snowy pattern i'd love a snow storm while im up there,of course as long as it doesnt effect my travels???,levi,anyone???...thanks in advance fellow wunderbloggers!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnbone:


You post that chart quite a bit,
patrap. So do you really think man-made climate models are truly accurate enough to use as proof of AGW? IMO, there's no way humanity has enough knowledge and measurements of the world in the 20th century to make such "small-errored" projections of the future.


Climate models are pretty bad at predicting the uncertainties that exist even in a deterministic complex system. That's why human predictions and studies of natural variabilities are equally necessary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:

why the have the solar cycle since 1980 ???


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 331 - 281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
55 °F
Overcast