Groundhog's Day blizzard pounds U.S.; Category 4 Yasi hits Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on February 02, 2011

Share this Blog
5
+

The great Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011 continues to pound a huge swath of the U.S. with heavy snows, destructive freezing rain, and dangerously cold and windy conditions. Over 1/2” of ice has caused power outages in Indianapolis, and up to .9” of ice has hit Columbus, Ohio. Ice amounts in excess of 1/2” have also affected Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey New York, and Pennsylvania. Blizzard conditions continue in Chicago, where heavy snows of up to two inches per hour in high winds have crippled the city's transportation system. As of 9am CST this morning, Chicago's O'Hare Airport had received 19.5” of snow, making it city's third greatest snowstorm on record. Only the January 2 - 4 1999 blizzard (21.6") and January 2 – 4, 1967 blizzard (23”) have dumped more snow on Chicago. Today's blizzard had stronger winds than Chicago's other two record snowstorms, and thus this storm is probably the worst snowstorm ever to affect the city, as far as impacts on travel go. Huge drifts in excess of 6 feet are common in the city, and residents are finding it difficult to leave their houses, much less travel on area roads. Winds last night at Chicago's Calumet Harbor were sustained at tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 51 mph, and high winds tore off part of a fiberboard roof panel behind home plate at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs. The Chicago buoy, 10 miles offshore in Lake Michigan, had sustained winds of 54 mph, gusting to 66 mph, last night. Winds are slowly decreasing across Chicago, and the blizzard will be over by early afternoon.


Figure 1. Lake Shore Drive in downtown Chicago on the night of February 1, 2011. Image credit: Viewer uploaded photo from WGN.

According to the National Weather Service, since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 43 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 20 years. The closest back to back 10 inch
snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 9-10, 2009.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 19.5 inches Feb 1-2, 2011
4. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
5. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
6. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
7. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
8. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
9. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
10. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970

The great storm's fury now turns to New England. Boston received 9.7” of snow as of 7am from the storm, and another 4 – 8” is on the way today. Heavy snows in excess of 6 inches are expected in a swath extending from central New York through Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine today. Up to 1/4” of ice is expected through New England along the southern edge of the heavy snow belt. Cities near the coast such as New York City and Philadelphia will receive mostly rain from the storm, though.

Some selected snowfall totals from the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011, as of 9am EST:

Spring Grove, IL 20.8”
Miami, OK 20”
Jefferson City, MO 18.3”
S. Fort Scott, KS 18”
Tulsa, OK 15”
Schenectady, NY 9.6”
Boston, MA 9.7”
Detroit, MI 7.5”
Oklahoma City, OK 7”
West Hartford, CT 6.5”
Abilene, TX 6”
Cedar Rapids, IA 4.5”


Figure 2. Satellite image of the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011, taken at 10am EST February 2. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time this morning as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. Yasi is incredibly strong, its winds falling just 5 mph short of Category 5 status. This makes the storm one of the top-ten strongest cyclones to hit Australia since accurate records began in 1970.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had this to say about Yasi in their advisory last night:

YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 03:35 UTC February 2, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.

On Wednesday morning at 9:30am local time, Yasi hit tiny Willis Island, where a minimum pressure of 938 mb and a peak wind gust of 115 mph was observed before Yasi cut communications and damaged the radar.

Queensland faces three major threats from Yasi. The cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to a region with saturated soils that saw record flooding earlier this month. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA using satellite-based rainfall estimates shows 4 – 6” of rain falling along Yasi's track over the next 24 hours. The GFS model is predicting that a wide swath of Queensland will receive 5 - 10 inches of rain over the next week, due to the combined effects of Yasi and a moist flow of tropical air over the region. Fortunately, Yasi is moving with a rapid forward speed, about 21 mph, and is not expected to linger over Queensland after landfall. The heaviest rainfall will miss Queensland's most populated regions to the south that had the worst flooding problems earlier this month, including the Australia's third largest city, Brisbane.

Yasi brought highly destructive winds to a region of coast between the cities of Cairns (population 150,000) and Townsville (population 200,000). Strong building codes have been in place in Queensland since the 1960s, which will help reduce the damage amounts. The fact that Yasi's eyewall missed these two major cities is lucky, since the coast is less populous between the cities.

A dangerous storm surge in excess of ten feet likely occurred along the left front quadrant of the storm where it came ashore. The tidal was going out when the storm struck, and the inundation from the storm surge will be about 1 meter (3 feet) less than it would have been had the storm hit at high tide.

Yasi is larger and more dangerous than Cyclone Larry of 2006, which hit Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Larry killed one person and caused $872 million in damage (2011 U.S. dollars.) Yasi will bring heavy rains to a region with soils already saturated from record rains, and may become a billion-dollar cyclone.


Figure 4. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Yasi at landfall in Queensland, Australia. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Links to follow:

Live streaming video from Channel 9 in Cairns, Australia

A new look for wunderground
The Weather Underground was the first commercial weather company to set up an Internet web site, way back in 1995. In the sixteen years since, we've steadily expanded our content, but today—in honor of Groundhog's Day—we've launched our first major site re-design. The WunderPress blog has a introduction to the new site, including a slide show that explains the new layout. You can click through the demo by hitting the “>” button. The launch of the redesigned wunderground.com also features our unique forecasting technology, BestForecast. Utilizing Weather Underground's network of personal weather stations (the largest in the world), BestForecast provides the industry's most localized weather forecasts by producing a forecast for every place in the world that has an airport or personal weather station—over 19,000 locations worldwide. We also provide the latest National Weather Service forecast for each county in the U.S., so users can choose which forecast works best for them. Coming soon: verification statistics, so you can see exactly how well the forecasts are doing for your location. We realize that not everyone will be happy with the newly redesigned site, so we still offer the old design at classic.wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

BLIZZARD! (farmerjen)
Blizzard in SE Kansas. The bird bath will be swallowed by nightfall for sure...
BLIZZARD!
Windswept (jadnash)
A desolate stretch of highway 32 in NE Nebraska
Windswept
School's Out! (jadnash)
A wild bus ride home today! High winds and heavy snow in NE Nebraska. Can't believe I'm actually out here driving, much less snapping pictures...
School's Out!
2011 Chicago Blizzard (weatherzoid1)
2011 Chicago Blizzard

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 491 - 441

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

491. greentortuloni
2:40 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting whtAmaroon:
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.


since I agree with most of Nea's thoughts on AGW (though my political views are shot gun scatttered over any spectrum you'd care to bring up), I thought I'd chime in with my predictions:

Scenario 1: Stay the same as we are:

Climate: Arctic Ice melts in 3-5 years, accelerating Greenland Ice sheet melt. Current rates of melt accelerate from 1mm/year (just Greenland) to 20mm/year. Methane release from permafrost and near land hydrates is released. Temperatures continue to climb resulting in massive changes to eco systems worldwide: coral bleaching, loss of fisheries, drought and deluge both.

Politically: Oil imports stop or slow down enourmously as a result of rising need in heavy industry in third world countries, backlash terrorism against Western oil refineries and rising prices that put casual oil consumption beyond the reach of many. (Yeah odd that but that is actually how I see it) Deulge and dought kill billions around the world through lack of food, disease, and fighting. The electric revolution comes anyway but ineffectively now. American society becomes more segregated and polarized. Financial crisis as physical and sociopolitical risk levels drive investment away innovation. Climate refugee crisis overwhelms infrastucture.

Basically, the world returns to the dark ages feudalism (in terms of isolated communities) and any idea of American dream or Norman Rockwell is trashed. Though with nice tech gadgets.


Scenario 2:


Stay the same but AGW is fixed, Deus ex machina style, let's say 10 years from now. Not necessarily Deux but for example the Chinese put up a big space umbrella to save us. Point of scenario is we continue in this path and AGW isn't a big deal.

Cimate:

Artic ice melts (irrevopcable at this point, I think). Coral bleaching, loss of many fisheries. Some flooding or coastal areas, more frequent weather changes. Loss of many species, thousands/millions die due to loss of agriculture, food price upheavals, and unsanitary conditions. Still climate refugees but not as bad as scenario 1.

Politically:
US continues to import oil. Slowly worldwide green renewable revolution takes place. People become self sufficient and understand the value of self sufficiency economically. Eventually this revolution comes to the US as well. US will be a financial wreck for generations since our only product that sells internationally is technology and we will lose that leadership thanks to 1) the law of averages (1 billion Chinese on the average will invent more than 500 million Americans given same education and entropreneurial system) and 2) the continual squashing of American science and rationality by polticians who have discovered how to sell their ideals for the votes of the ignorant. [At some point, technology will remove the need for workers or work. At that point an asset independent country with no debt will be able to survive just fine. After that point, debt will spiral out of control.]

Scenario 3:

The world comes togather, admits there is AGW and agrees on stopping AGW togather. All the climate problems of scenario 2 continue however, but the world works togather to fix the problems. Debt will still be a problem but with the anti-science climate removed politically, the US will stand a fighting chance to regain our economic independence.


*Author's note. I realize this post makes me seem a semi-nutcase. But if you remove the 'everything is magically ok' solution, making projections somehow makes everyone sound like that, I hope (at least, I hope it isn't just me). I think it would be fun, perhaps on another blog, to debate futurism re global warming because I think it is one of hte most overlooked parts of what will happen because of AGW.

Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
490. AussieStorm
2:36 PM GMT on February 03, 2011






























Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
489. kwgirl
2:27 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Good morning everyone. I see the people who have been up all night need to go to bed. Tempers are short. It is another beautiful CoC day in the Keys. I am looking at the forecast for next week and wonder how cold it will get down here. Maybe not too much. It is definitely beginning to feel like spring here:)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
488. Patrap
2:13 PM GMT on February 03, 2011


... Houston Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Warning for snow... sleet and freezing rain... which
is in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
lower atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing
rain across southeast Texas this afternoon through Friday
morning. The precipitation is expected to begin during the early
afternoon near the coast... and spread area wide by evening. The
wintry mix will continue Thursday night then taper off late
morning Friday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
487. Drakoen
2:07 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


Hey Drak,..

Keep um coming.


Geaux Sneaux.



A lot of time to watch this one but I like the setup that is being displayed by the models. Cold air coming down from Canada and a GOM low far enough south to allow the 850mb freezing line to really come south.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30084
486. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 06z starting to agree with the ECMWF for a Deep South Snow storm with snow possible all the way down to the coast.





Hey Drak,..

Keep um coming.


Geaux Sneaux.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
485. Patrap
2:03 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting kellnerp:
Lakeshore is still closed in one lane in Chicago. Look at the good side. All those cars parked there will not be getting in the way of the plows in the neighborhoods.




Thats a good angle,,

Looked just like in 67 save for the SUV's.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
483. Drakoen
2:01 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
GFS 06z starting to agree with the ECMWF for a Deep South Snow storm with snow possible all the way down to the coast.



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30084
482. Neapolitan
2:01 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting whtAmaroon:
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.

Ummm--what? I'm really not "all-knowing"; I may just seem that way when compared to, say, JB. ;-) But, okay, my ironclad* climate prediction: in 10 years, the overall global climate will be warmer than now. In 20 years, the overall global climate will be both much warmer than now, and warmer than where it will be in 10 years.

There you go. Write it down, and look me up in 2031.

* - Should an extremely rare though possible large-scale event occur that would drive global temps downward for a large number of years, this prediction is invalid. Such events include all-out thermonuclear war, a high-speed collision between earth and a space object larger than 3 miles across, or a long-term supervolcano eruption.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13505
481. Sergej7
1:50 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
480. whtAmaroon
1:46 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.
Member Since: February 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
479. kellnerp
1:40 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Lakeshore is still closed in one lane in Chicago. Look at the good side. All those cars parked there will not be getting in the way of the plows in the neighborhoods.

Member Since: September 1, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
478. Sergej7
1:31 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Feb 3:
Unofficially, there are currently 52 stations that have broken their daily low record, 2 that are tying it, and 23 that are near it.
http://coolwx.com/record/
Link
Link

Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
477. aquak9
1:31 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
hi hydrus

I am so thankful for my warm weather- no sunshine, but at least it's not cold
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
476. BigToe
1:28 PM GMT on February 03, 2011

maybe it is
but one thing for sure its one of the last anyway
we got 47 days till spring pushes in
at the end of the run looks like warm air is getting stronger to fla. west
and each push of warm air should soon get stronger and stronger
until it pushes the cold air further and further north
----------------------
Folks in Fl should get the smudge pots ready for next week!!
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
475. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:25 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting BigToe:
Keep, that looks like some Mighty cold snap for the SE next week. Hope it's the last for the season.

maybe it is
but one thing for sure its one of the last anyway
we got 47 days till spring pushes in
at the end of the run looks like warm air is getting stronger to fla. west
and each push of warm air should soon get stronger and stronger
until it pushes the cold air further and further north
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
474. ScottLincoln
1:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

As I've so often said: JB needs to stick with short-term weather forecasting--which he's good at--and leave the long-term climate forecasting to those who know what they're talking about. Either that, or be prepared to be challenged. Simple enough, no?

You, too, have a great day...


Exactly. If someone wants to play scientist in a new field for them, then they should be prepared to be criticized by the scientists already established in the field who know much more about it. This becomes especially true when someone makes many a hypothesis that turn out to be wrong with little basis in already established theory. Peer review and literature review are both parts of the foundation of science.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3190
473. hydrus
1:20 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
hi keeper, g'morning, that's exactl;y what I wanted.

well not really the temps or the blues but

thank you for posting that
Good morning Aquak9..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
472. BigToe
1:20 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Keep, that looks like some Mighty cold snap for the SE next week. Hope it's the last for the season.
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
471. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:18 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
morning hydrus
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:16 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
aquak9 your welcome
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
469. BigToe
1:13 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
@ #464, Cantore ALMOST let go w/ the B word. LOL
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
468. hydrus
1:13 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning wunder bloggers
Good morning Keep.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
467. aquak9
1:08 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
hi keeper, g'morning, that's exactl;y what I wanted.

well not really the temps or the blues but

thank you for posting that
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
466. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:05 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ike, nea, if ya'll are still here

we got any better tweaking for the end'o'next'week's cold snap for our area?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
465. aquak9
1:04 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
geoffrry- thanks - I saw it last night and it still makes me smile
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
464. GeoffreyWPB
12:59 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11097
463. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:59 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
morning wunder bloggers
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
462. Neapolitan
12:59 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting BigToe:
Neo, re; #453.. The rants against JB read like an MSNBC blog. Nothing but far left leaning name calling against anyone right of center. Really, rants against Sarah, Rush and anybody on the right are featured. Soooo, any one center right HAS to be wrong. I'd give it a little more credence if all the responses were not progressive temper trantrums. BTW, I'm all for finding ways to get off of fossil fuels. Not because of climate change, but to quit sending money to peoples who would do our country harm, so we agree on that. You have a great day!!!

I don't recall anyone bringing politics into this discussion; it began--and should stay with--weather. I merely called out a popular, though very often wrong, meteorologist on yet another of his very wrong forecasts. In this case, that forecast--that January 2011 would be the coldest month out of the last 300--was picked up and loudly trumpeted by both "global cooling" wishers and that forecaster's sycophants. But now that forecast has been proven wrong, I believe the absence of a mea culpa from that meteorologist is deafening, and in any case certainly says a lot about both his abilities and his prejudices.

As I've so often said: JB needs to stick with short-term weather forecasting--which he's good at--and leave the long-term climate forecasting to those who know what they're talking about. Either that, or be prepared to be challenged. Simple enough, no?

You, too, have a great day...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13505
461. aquak9
12:57 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
g'morning ike, nea, if ya'll are still here

we got any better tweaking for the end'o'next'week's cold snap for our area?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
460. islander101010
12:57 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
the hottest meteorologist in the world? others? twc girl at night miss egger
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4476
459. kellnerp
12:51 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Thanks for the blizzard list. I was in the blizzard of 79 in Chicago. Just started school. Mayor Bilandic lost his job because of that blizzard. The city was reporting side streets plowed when they weren't. (Well that's not entirely true. City official's side street were plowed.) If you just focus on one city you miss the bigger picture. There was the blizzard of 78 which extended from Chicago to the east coast. I was caught in Fort Wayne for 4 days as I was on a road trip. It took 12 hours to travel 130 miles during that storm. Another blizzard the same year struck a week later and shut down Pennsylvania and New Jersey. NJ had the best plowing system for it's freeways that I have ever seen. Going back some more, there was the blizzard of 73 that hit Milwaukee in April. 36 inches fell in one day. In three days it had melted significantly. I didn't make it all the way home and ended up staying at a friends house. There was the blizzard of 93 that hit an area south and east of Lake Michigan. Stayed at a fellow workers house for a day.

When traveling in these areas it quickly becomes apparent that how the local highway department handles the snow makes all the difference between whether things stay open or not. Traveling home from the blizzard in 93 there was a distinct difference in how well plowing had been done when crossing the county line. When caught in Fort Wayne in 78 the Sheriff had enlisted local ham radio operators with 4 wheelers to do mundane service tasks like delivering medicine and shoveling out elderly people's doors. In 79 in Chicago you shoveled out a parking space in front of your house. Heaven help the person who parked in someone else's parking space. When the city started doing side streets a year later they really couldn't plow the snow anywhere so they just drove down the streets with the sanders going full blast pelting the parked cars with large pieces of rock salt.
Member Since: September 1, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
457. GeoffreyWPB
12:37 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
From the Miami NWS Discussion:

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT, HOWEVER A MUCH DRIER AND
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION. THE GFS
INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WITH A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT MID WEEK, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF IS A TOUCH WEAKER (WARMER) WITH A PAIR OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN THURS. ATTM TIMING AND TEMPS ARE
HARD TO NAIL DOWN, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11097
456. BigToe
12:37 PM GMT on February 03, 2011
Neo, re; #453.. The rants against JB read like an MSNBC blog. Nothing but far left leaning name calling against anyone right of center. Really, rants against Sarah, Rush and anybody on the right are featured. Soooo, any one center right HAS to be wrong. I'd give it a little more credence if all the responses were not progressive temper trantrums. BTW, I'm all for finding ways to get off of fossil fuels. Not because of climate change, but to quit sending money to peoples who would do our country harm, so we agree on that. You have a great day!!!
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
455. DDR
11:58 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Good morning
The gfs shows 6 inches of rain accumulation over Trinidad for the next 7 days,interesting but not impossible.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
454. IKE
11:18 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
From Birmingham,AL....

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE QUITE A RANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST THAT WE WILL BE FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. AFTER THAT...A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THE LATTER ONE POTNETIALLY BRINGING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER.

FIRST ITEM OF ORDER...MOS GUIDANCE IS RUNNING WAY TOO WARM DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO IT BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMO.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDELING
THIS BETTER.

SECOND ITEM...PRECIPITATION. MORE THAN LIKELY...MOST IF NOT ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEING SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTION MARKS THOUGH AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO SPLIT FAR FROM
EACH OTHER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AREA WIDE TO
SUPPORT A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH WHATEVER LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS LEFT. THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO TO
SEE ANY KIND OF HEAVY SNOW. THE GFS DOES WANT TO BRING A POST
FRONTAL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF AREA...BUT BOTH GEM AND
ECMWF NOT SUPPORTING THIS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT EVERYTHING PRECIP
FREE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION AND IT IS ALSO WHEN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE
(GEM IS NOT AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD). THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE AND BOTH MODELS BRING IN MOISTURE BACK WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST...BRINGING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL ALL BE SNOW.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW NO SIGNS OF ANY WARM AIR INTRUSION BY EITHER
MODEL.

NOW...THE REASON BOTH MODELS DIVERGE IS THAT THE ECMWF HITS US WITH
A WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF. THE GFS IS NOWHERE NEAR THAT AS
IT ONLY SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH SUCH A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL...WILL
NOT BITE ON A PARTICULAR SOLUTION. I WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE THE GFS AT LEAST SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT AND COLD AIR IN PLACE.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BOTH MODELS PROJECT WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS WINTER. DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY.

10/ARM

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
453. Neapolitan
10:39 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Stop the name calling.

I read the article in question and am aware of the logical flaws.

What does a pure ad hominer attack have to do with science?

This is meant as a purely rhetorical question, but are you a troll for the Koch's?

Umm---what? "Name calling"? I merely rearranged the letters in his name to suit my needs--which is pretty much what he does with the scientific facts to suit his.

Try and prove me wrong. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13505
452. Leafgreen
10:30 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Let's see... my job was $7,000 (I had to fix an unsafe solar hot water system so don't let that scare you)....

The unit will cost you minimum 1,500 (since I heat my house with water 2,500), less 500 cost for a tank unit. Thus at least 1,000

1,000 installation.

So that is at least 2,000 dollars.

And is your house up to electric code? You will need to plug the tankless in somewhere (your old tank unit probably works with a pilot light).

I just want to be as honest as possible (for a new build putting in a tank is silly).

CFLs quickest payout.


@EnergyMoron, can you take a look at this tankless water heater, please? It's $550, not $1500. Also, I've already got the "27 KW 3x9000 112.5 Amp" service for the Eco 27 model. I'm looking at the installation manual (but it's clear from the pics...you don't need to read that). I can run the wire myself. And the plumbing hookup seems quite straightforward for a plumber. I can go to Craigslist and get a licensed weekender to do the job for $300 MAX. Whatcha think?
Member Since: July 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
451. IKE
10:15 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Per CNN....no deaths in Australia from the tropical cyclone. I heard yesterday that the death toll from the winter storm in the USA was at 10. It's probably risen by now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
450. greentortuloni
9:28 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
I think even if I knew how to post the video, I wouldn't since it might be taken as if I was making light of the situation. But listening to the Beeb while rading this site, the announcer refered to the fire's in Cairo. So with all due respect: Fire In Cairo.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
449. greentortuloni
8:59 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
EnergyMoron~ I thought I'd about finished with making this old house efficient. Let a energy guru in that pointed out I still had a solar attic fan to go. Would save me ~2/3rd of what a solar water heater would a year & cost $500 or less.

I also spent ~$50 at Silicon Solar the other week on education kits, broken bits of solar panels, diodes, leds, photocells, the wire to solder them together panels with & a larger panel that needs encased. We're beginning to dismantle unwanted battery operated toys too. I took the YouTube courses on soldering & making panels from scrap (~20 mins).

So far we've made solar panels for battery chargers that double as a fan & nightlight. I think I changed the way we will camp, charge batteries & some of these little electronics. It's a start.


You rock.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
448. reasonmclucus
8:44 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone notice the tongue of warm water into the loop current in the Gulf. Anyone have a comparison to last year's SST in the Gulf? Come on, there is nothing on TV but NCIS reruns.



The Unisys site has SST archives including anomalies. the Gulf has been cooler than normal for several weeks.
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

The site also has daily SST data
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssd&inv=0&t=cur

the cold fronts have been going well into Gulf this year and reducing water temperature. The Northwestern end of the Gulf has been getting subfreezing dry air which is then heated by the warmer Gulf waters. The dry air allows more evaporation which further increases cooling.

The weather in the Northern hemisphere is consistent with a shift to a cooler sun. As solar heating declines the land areas cool faster than the oceans creating an expanded version of the lake effect snows.
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:11 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
5:00 PM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 20.0S 141.6E, or 180 km west northwest of Richmond and 235 km east northeast of Mt Isa has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Yasi continues to weaken but damaging wind gusts are still possible about the tropical interior.

DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts to 100 km/h, are occurring through much of the tropical interior. These winds are forecast to contract from the east, and extend towards the Northern Territory border west of Mount Isa this evening. Overnight Tropical Cyclone Yasi will weaken below cyclone intensity as it approaches the border, although strong gusts will still be possible to its south.

HEAVY RAINS are forecast to move with the cyclone and cause localised flooding across the tropical interior.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for communities across the tropical interior from west of Hughenden to the Northern Territory border, including Mt Isa and Longreach.

The Cyclone WARNING in the area between Hughenden towards Charters Towers has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 21.0S 138.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 22.1S 136.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 23.5S 133.8E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Cyclone Yasi remains a symmetric system as it moves across the north Queensland interior. Convection has weakened around the system and cloud top temperatures have warmed since Yasi crossed the coast earlier this morning.

Yasi is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track as it moves towards central Australia over the next couple of days. Although the cyclone is weakening over land strong and gusty conditions are expected to the south of the system with mixing of low level winds to the surface, particularly during daylight hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45206
446. Leafgreen
7:59 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Looks like the cold air will be on the march near the middle of next week into the weekend heading towards the southeast.. Should be watch.. IMO

Look at those isotherms in North Mexico! Could that be the most extreme non-elevation temperature variation ever??
Member Since: July 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
445. AnthonyJKenn
7:57 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
This is getting more than a bit serious now here in South Central Louisiana/Acadiana. Quoting from the latest discusion from the NWS Lake Charles office:

A COUPLE OF CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS HAVE EMERGED IN LATEST MODELDATA FOR TOMORROW...LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

GIVEN THE INCREASING PROBABILITY THAT WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET FROM THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE INTO LAKE CHARLES...HAVE REPLACED THE ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...WITH MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOWING UP IN DETERMINATION METHODS THAN SNOW. WILL LET THE MIDSHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE THIS AS ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.


Also, they have tweaked the forecast for my portion of the woods (Opelousas) to call for 2" accumulations of sleet and up to 1/2" accumulation of ice. Though, I wouldn't rule out snow by any means.

We already have cherry pickers running to trim the trees from the power lines in anticipation of the icing.

They've cancelled school for tomorrow in St. Landry and Lafayette Parishes, and I'm sure that Friday will be called off, too.

And yet, I have an evening work shift which I can't avoid, so I'll probably have to work through all this. Nice.

Later today should be real interesting down here. Wish me luck.


Anthony
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
444. FLPandhandleJG
7:17 AM GMT on February 03, 2011


Looks like the cold air will be on the march near the middle of next week into the weekend heading towards the southeast.. Should be watch.. IMO
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
443. FLPandhandleJG
7:11 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting Grecojdw:


Is that for this upcoming storm or that one that is the "hypothetical storm"sometime next week? If it is this week, are the forecast temperatures going to drop a few degrees if it does pan out for NW Florida?


No its for next week.. Just most models are point this out for a few days now.. maybe 2 days b4 we will know a lil better.. B/c we need the right ingredients for this to happen here.. So there is potential that we need to watch..

Right now that band hasn't moved are way for the past 30mins and we might need see any precipitation.. Might see chilly rain all day tomorrow unless are temps somehow stay in the 30's.. Most likely not..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
442. Grecojdw
7:07 AM GMT on February 03, 2011
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Even though I live in the FL panhandle, I wouldn't mind seeing some snow.. Would be a sight down here.. :)


Is that for this upcoming storm or that one that is the "hypothetical storm"sometime next week? If it is this week, are the forecast temperatures going to drop a few degrees if it does pan out for NW Florida?
Member Since: January 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
441. 1900hurricane
7:02 AM GMT on February 03, 2011


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE APPROACH
OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
WEST...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...
MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY.

TXZ250-251-253>257-031115-
/O.UPG.KBRO.WS.A.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE LONE STAR STATE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...
WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON
THURSDAY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR THAT RUNS FROM MCALLEN
TO FALFURRIAS. WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR...SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY.
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...AND SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF THE
CORRIDOR. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

ALSO...MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15
DEGREES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR BELOW 20 FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. PERSONS NOT
ACCLIMATED TO THESE EXTREME VALUES MAY EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE IF NOT
PROTECTED...AND COULD DIE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE INCH ON ROADS OR
WALKWAYS...AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION...OR ICE
ACCRETION OF ONE EIGHTH INCH OR MORE ON EXPOSED SURFACES.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE THEM
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666

Viewing: 491 - 441

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
63 °F
Mostly Cloudy