Groundhog's Day blizzard pounds U.S.; Category 4 Yasi hits Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on February 02, 2011

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The great Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011 continues to pound a huge swath of the U.S. with heavy snows, destructive freezing rain, and dangerously cold and windy conditions. Over 1/2” of ice has caused power outages in Indianapolis, and up to .9” of ice has hit Columbus, Ohio. Ice amounts in excess of 1/2” have also affected Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey New York, and Pennsylvania. Blizzard conditions continue in Chicago, where heavy snows of up to two inches per hour in high winds have crippled the city's transportation system. As of 9am CST this morning, Chicago's O'Hare Airport had received 19.5” of snow, making it city's third greatest snowstorm on record. Only the January 2 - 4 1999 blizzard (21.6") and January 2 – 4, 1967 blizzard (23”) have dumped more snow on Chicago. Today's blizzard had stronger winds than Chicago's other two record snowstorms, and thus this storm is probably the worst snowstorm ever to affect the city, as far as impacts on travel go. Huge drifts in excess of 6 feet are common in the city, and residents are finding it difficult to leave their houses, much less travel on area roads. Winds last night at Chicago's Calumet Harbor were sustained at tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 51 mph, and high winds tore off part of a fiberboard roof panel behind home plate at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs. The Chicago buoy, 10 miles offshore in Lake Michigan, had sustained winds of 54 mph, gusting to 66 mph, last night. Winds are slowly decreasing across Chicago, and the blizzard will be over by early afternoon.


Figure 1. Lake Shore Drive in downtown Chicago on the night of February 1, 2011. Image credit: Viewer uploaded photo from WGN.

According to the National Weather Service, since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 43 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 20 years. The closest back to back 10 inch
snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 9-10, 2009.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 19.5 inches Feb 1-2, 2011
4. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
5. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
6. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
7. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
8. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
9. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
10. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970

The great storm's fury now turns to New England. Boston received 9.7” of snow as of 7am from the storm, and another 4 – 8” is on the way today. Heavy snows in excess of 6 inches are expected in a swath extending from central New York through Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine today. Up to 1/4” of ice is expected through New England along the southern edge of the heavy snow belt. Cities near the coast such as New York City and Philadelphia will receive mostly rain from the storm, though.

Some selected snowfall totals from the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011, as of 9am EST:

Spring Grove, IL 20.8”
Miami, OK 20”
Jefferson City, MO 18.3”
S. Fort Scott, KS 18”
Tulsa, OK 15”
Schenectady, NY 9.6”
Boston, MA 9.7”
Detroit, MI 7.5”
Oklahoma City, OK 7”
West Hartford, CT 6.5”
Abilene, TX 6”
Cedar Rapids, IA 4.5”


Figure 2. Satellite image of the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011, taken at 10am EST February 2. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time this morning as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. Yasi is incredibly strong, its winds falling just 5 mph short of Category 5 status. This makes the storm one of the top-ten strongest cyclones to hit Australia since accurate records began in 1970.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had this to say about Yasi in their advisory last night:

YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 03:35 UTC February 2, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.

On Wednesday morning at 9:30am local time, Yasi hit tiny Willis Island, where a minimum pressure of 938 mb and a peak wind gust of 115 mph was observed before Yasi cut communications and damaged the radar.

Queensland faces three major threats from Yasi. The cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to a region with saturated soils that saw record flooding earlier this month. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA using satellite-based rainfall estimates shows 4 – 6” of rain falling along Yasi's track over the next 24 hours. The GFS model is predicting that a wide swath of Queensland will receive 5 - 10 inches of rain over the next week, due to the combined effects of Yasi and a moist flow of tropical air over the region. Fortunately, Yasi is moving with a rapid forward speed, about 21 mph, and is not expected to linger over Queensland after landfall. The heaviest rainfall will miss Queensland's most populated regions to the south that had the worst flooding problems earlier this month, including the Australia's third largest city, Brisbane.

Yasi brought highly destructive winds to a region of coast between the cities of Cairns (population 150,000) and Townsville (population 200,000). Strong building codes have been in place in Queensland since the 1960s, which will help reduce the damage amounts. The fact that Yasi's eyewall missed these two major cities is lucky, since the coast is less populous between the cities.

A dangerous storm surge in excess of ten feet likely occurred along the left front quadrant of the storm where it came ashore. The tidal was going out when the storm struck, and the inundation from the storm surge will be about 1 meter (3 feet) less than it would have been had the storm hit at high tide.

Yasi is larger and more dangerous than Cyclone Larry of 2006, which hit Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Larry killed one person and caused $872 million in damage (2011 U.S. dollars.) Yasi will bring heavy rains to a region with soils already saturated from record rains, and may become a billion-dollar cyclone.


Figure 4. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Yasi at landfall in Queensland, Australia. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Links to follow:

Live streaming video from Channel 9 in Cairns, Australia

A new look for wunderground
The Weather Underground was the first commercial weather company to set up an Internet web site, way back in 1995. In the sixteen years since, we've steadily expanded our content, but today—in honor of Groundhog's Day—we've launched our first major site re-design. The WunderPress blog has a introduction to the new site, including a slide show that explains the new layout. You can click through the demo by hitting the “>” button. The launch of the redesigned wunderground.com also features our unique forecasting technology, BestForecast. Utilizing Weather Underground's network of personal weather stations (the largest in the world), BestForecast provides the industry's most localized weather forecasts by producing a forecast for every place in the world that has an airport or personal weather station—over 19,000 locations worldwide. We also provide the latest National Weather Service forecast for each county in the U.S., so users can choose which forecast works best for them. Coming soon: verification statistics, so you can see exactly how well the forecasts are doing for your location. We realize that not everyone will be happy with the newly redesigned site, so we still offer the old design at classic.wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

BLIZZARD! (farmerjen)
Blizzard in SE Kansas. The bird bath will be swallowed by nightfall for sure...
BLIZZARD!
Windswept (jadnash)
A desolate stretch of highway 32 in NE Nebraska
Windswept
School's Out! (jadnash)
A wild bus ride home today! High winds and heavy snow in NE Nebraska. Can't believe I'm actually out here driving, much less snapping pictures...
School's Out!
2011 Chicago Blizzard (weatherzoid1)
2011 Chicago Blizzard

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, no, no that isn't how it usually is.

The record lows move with the seasons, too. So a record low can be bested in any season with only well below average temps. -10 F isn't needed to set a record low in the summer.


just like how record highs are set in the winter,

you don't need 110 degrees in January to set record highs


good point
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


19 degrees, snow, and windy!

I would do some more broadcasting, but I have to work in an hour.

The temperature at 9PM last night was 33 degrees. At 10PM, the low from this storm passed directly overhead and the temperature rose to 52 degrees, pressure reached its lowest, and the wind was at it's peak.

at 12:45AM, the temperature was down to 25 degrees



Cool info...work comes first! Keep me posted on conditions...be safe...
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey Tdude...how are the conditions there now?


19 degrees, snow, and windy!

I would do some more broadcasting, but I have to work in an hour.

The temperature at 9PM last night was 33 degrees. At 10PM, the low from this storm passed directly overhead and the temperature rose to 52 degrees, pressure reached its lowest, and the wind was at it's peak.

at 12:45AM, the temperature was down to 25 degrees

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Neapolitan:

You mean the tally that shows that, despite Blow Jastardi's breathless predictions that the month would be the coldest out of the last 300, and in spite of a few cold blasts--Jan. 8-14, Jan. 21-25--there were still more record daily highs than record daily lows in January? Yeah, that's me. ;-)

It's true that, yes, record lows outnumbered record highs yesterday--for the first time in a week. (In fact, even factoring in yesterday, over the past seven days, record daily highs and high minimums have outnumbered record daily lows and low minimums 325 to 80.) Of course, there will likely be many more record cold temps today--but that's usually how it is in the dead of winter, no?
Umm, no, no that isn't how it usually is.

The record lows move with the seasons, too. So a record low can be bested in any season with only well below average temps. -10 F isn't needed to set a record low in the summer.
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Saw this one and kinda liked it:

"Volcanic lightning or a dirty thunderstorm is seen above Shinmoedake peak as it erupts, between Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, in this photo taken from Kirishima city and released by Minami-Nippon Shimbun January 28, 2011. Ash and rocks fell across a wide swathe of southern Japan straddling the prefectures of Miyazaki and Kagoshima on Thursday, as one of Mount Kirishima's many calderas erupted, prompting authorities to raise alert levels and call on for an evacuation of all residents within a 2 km (1.2 miles) radius of the volcano. Click for more images:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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Hey Tdude...how are the conditions there now?
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Quoting kwgirl:
I believe it is going on to a New Moon. Lunatics, like myself, are sensitive to the pull and it does cause sniping about little things. I have my tin-foil hat on so it doesn't bother me so much:)


LOL! That was funny!
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Quoting NRAamy:
junky.... PLEASE...count to 10.... take a deep breath.....

ok?

:)





I'm doing just fine...in fact, I have no stress associated with the new web site so I am doing great!
Thanks for your unwarranted concern though.
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I'm really digging this banding thing that the ECMWF is putting over my head on Thursday andFriday:

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Quoting SQUAWK:


Well, actually, I am. I do care about the people I know and the ones that I can actually help. I am not going to get all teary eyed over something I have no control over and can do nothing about. Using your logic, there were supposedly 27,000 children that died last night from malnutrition and related diseases. TWENTY-SEVEN THOUSAND IN ONE NIGHT. If you need a cause to cry over, try that one. I tend to be a realist. If I can do nothing about it, I am not going to lose sleep over it.


I'm not going to lose sleep over it either, I just thought it might be a more worthwhile use of energy to care so vehemently about people dying than minor changes to a website. Guess I was wrong.

Out of site out of mind. Interesting motto to live by. Ooh and thanks for the heavy touch of condescension. I would expect nothing less from you.

I know it pains you to actually give a hoot about anything you don't have control over but that doesn't stop millions of people each day from doing it. You think anyone had any control over Haiti's Earthquake, Katrina, the Indonesian Tsunami, TC Yasi or any number of other terrible events?

According to YOUR logic, we shouldn't care about any of those events because we "have no control over them". Glad everyone doesn't share your same logic circuit.

I guess you shouldn't care about what the government is doing either since you "have no control" over alot of it. Gimme a break. Save your lectures for someone else.
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Quoting aquak9:
drak- how about a typewritten commentary on that last post, please...


The ECMWF 12z run is showing a low track through the northern Gulf of Mexico with very cold air behind the low supporting back end snow all the way to the Gulf Coast. Here's the precipitation forecast. Notice the comma head back into Louisiana and Mississippi. That's snow.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Where is the daily record highs and lows tally, I wonder. Who usually contributes that?

You mean the tally that shows that, despite Blow Jastardi's breathless predictions that the month would be the coldest out of the last 300, and in spite of a few cold blasts--Jan. 8-14, Jan. 21-25--there were still more record daily highs than record daily lows in January? Yeah, that's me. ;-)

It's true that, yes, record lows outnumbered record highs yesterday--for the first time in a week. (In fact, even factoring in yesterday, over the past seven days, record daily highs and high minimums have outnumbered record daily lows and low minimums 325 to 80.) Of course, there will likely be many more record cold temps today--but that's usually how it is in the dead of winter, no?
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Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting run of the 12z ECMWF for the Deep South:


Is this what you were trying to post?



*EDIT* Well, now it's deciding to show up...
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drak- how about a typewritten commentary on that last post, please...
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Interesting run of the 12z ECMWF for the Deep South:

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Quoting pipelines:
locations in the greater Chicago area reporting 22+ inches of snow on the ground after this mornings lake effect band moved through


not my picture

Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, Illinois

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
28 degrees at 1PM in Texas City, TX
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locations in the greater Chicago area reporting 22+ inches of snow on the ground after this mornings lake effect band moved through
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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL

how ya doing?
Busy. bbl..
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Yasi down to Cat. 3.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
day late dollar short uptxcoast, already know in here


Oh My apologies then. I did not see that watch posted on the forums yet. Thank you for taking the time to point it out. That is very useful.
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Quoting surfsidesindy:


Inland cat.4...yuck. You can tell the folks calling into the radio station are getting weary. They just want it to end of course but it's such a huge storm, that won't be happening real soon. Daylight is right around the corner. Early reports from Tully are devastating.
I hope it doesn't stall on them. I have been through three days of hurricane conditions.
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The current temperature in Jefferson City, MO: 0 F
Snow cover: 19.5" (at this location)


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Quoting hydrus:
Uh, the featured weather blog for humans that pre-date the solar system is at -I witnessed the Big Bang dot Com....Lol..Good afternoon...:)


LOL

how ya doing?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Floodman:


Gro, we have never cast shadows, you and I...part of the Faust deal to get as old as we are...LOL
Uh, the featured weather blog for humans that pre-date the solar system is at -I witnessed the Big Bang dot Com....Lol..Good afternoon...:)
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BA BOOM!! getting closer to hurricane season and were going ass backwards

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Quoting RecordSeason:
107:

The south side has always been a little asymetric. There is a really strong feeder band on the south side.

Wind maps of Yasi


Inland cat.4...yuck. You can tell the folks calling into the radio station are getting weary. They just want it to end of course but it's such a huge storm, that won't be happening real soon. Daylight is right around the corner. Early reports from Tully are devastating.
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Quoting Floodman:


Gro, we have never cast shadows, you and I...part of the Faust deal to get as old as we are...LOL


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Where is the daily record highs and lows tally, I wonder. Who usually contributes that?
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Quoting Grothar:


I hear ya HJ. I'm so old I don't even cast a shadow anymore.


Gro, we have never cast shadows, you and I...part of the Faust deal to get as old as we are...LOL
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The NHC just released their Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Karl. There weren't a lot of changes: the storm is still listed as a Cat 3 with maximum winds of 110 knots and a minimum pressure of 956 mb. Among the highlights:
  • After passing over the Yucatan, Karl winds rose by 65 knots in just 30 hours, which is more than double the threshold for rapid intensification. During this time, Karl's eye shrank from 20 nm to 8 nm.
  • Karl is the strongest hurricane, and the only major hurricane, ever recorded in the Bay of Campeche.
  • 22 deaths and about $206 million in damage were caused by Karl.
  • Karl was at or above TS strength a few hours longer than previously thought, though the storm was at hurricane strength for a few hours less than previously thought.
  • Karl's ACE is increased slightly from 5.8 to 6.25 (though the storm's HDP drops from 4.48 to 4.135).
  • Overall seasonal ACE is increased just a bit to 164.11.
Now we just wait for TCRs for Igor and Tomas, two of the season's most complex storms.
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People in Townsville are reporting conditions are worsening now as Yasi moves inland. They are caught in the large backside of this storm.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Doesn't look like any of that is falling to the surface in the face of a large dewpoint depression from this morning's sounding from KLIX. Freezing temperatures only from 950mb to the surface with a large inversion in the mid levels.
Well, a reliable source said 30 minutes ago that they were seeing flurries in Mandeville (20 miles west of KASD).

But, yeah, is quite shallow. 10 to 20 dBz is all we'll see today.
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Quoting Patrap:
Stay Classy KRLD...
Link enclosed for your viewing and listening pleasure Link
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Stay Classy KRLD...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Bord..Did you see the GFS..Look at the last few frames..It lookks like an invasLinkion from the North Pole...I just saw that, OMG :o)
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day late dollar short uptxcoast, already know in here
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Quoting Bordonaro:

YES, indeed. A Winter Storm Watch is up for y'all. It would not surprise me to see 3-6" in a widespread swath from North Central TX all the way to the S TX coast.

Welcome to the Super Storm Feb 2011 PT II
Hello Bord..Did you see the GFS..Look at the last few frames..It lookks like an invasLinkion from the North Pole...
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Was hoping for snow rather than ice, snow is more fun but ice is dangerous and not as pretty
Sorry, Rita, just be very careful. This may get quiet ugly in S TX especially.

Newsradio KRLD 1080 AM in the DFW Metroplex have dubbed this weather episode "Super-Storm 2011"
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... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing rain
across southeast Texas Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
The precipitation is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
especially across the southern half of the area... and spread area
wide by early evening. The wintry mix will continue Thursday night
then taper off around mid morning Friday.

A mixture of snow... sleet... and freezing rain is expected east of
a line from Matagorda to downtown Houston to Rye in Liberty
County. Over the coastal sections of Brazoria County... and most of
Galveston... Chambers... and Liberty counties this could end up a
primarily ice event with significant glazing on roadways. To the
north and west of this line... a mix of snow and sleet are
expected... with all snow across the northwest half of southeast
Texas.

Snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected... with
locally higher amounts possible. In the freezing rain threat
area... ice accumulations of up to one-tenth of an inch are
expected. This includes the southern and eastern portions of the
Metro Houston area and the Galveston area as well.

Surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s to lower
30s through the duration of the event. This means that
roadways... especially elevated surfaces like bridges and
overpasses... are much more likely to ice over than during the
events southeast Texas experienced last winter. Roadways will
likely become icy and hazardous Thursday night and Friday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
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Also snow in the forecast for Pensacola, FL...Link
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Was hoping for snow rather than ice, snow is more fun but ice is dangerous and not as pretty
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get nasty in SE TX

YES, indeed. A Winter Storm Watch is up for y'all. It would not surprise me to see 3-6" in a widespread swath from North Central TX all the way to the S TX coast.

Welcome to the Super Storm Feb 2011 PT II
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From New Orleans, LA...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LIGHT SLEET COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE ...RIVER PARISHES...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...OVER THE NORTHSHORE...BATON ROUGE METRO...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGER IMPACT FOR THE BATON ROUGE METRO...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF THE EVENT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.

Link
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Gonna get nasty in SE TX
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The Wu Nation Wins a Round in the Clash of the "New Format Revolution"

Wunderpress Blog is back OPEN for comments

"Notice Anything Different?"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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