Stan one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes; TD 22 continues WNW

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2005

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Stan
Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time, with over 1500 deaths caused. Stan will proabably far surpass Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana. The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala. In a freakish double whammy, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala Friday, causing additional damage, but no deaths. Also bizzare is the volcanic eruption that occured during the height of Stan rains in El Salvador on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens. When you add these events to the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that rocked Taiwan at the height of Tyhoon Longwang on October 1, one might wonder if there is a connection between seismic activity and hurricane activity! There isn't.

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22, located about 300 miles southeast of Bermuda this evening, is not entirely tropical in nature. There are some substantial horizontal changes in temperature like one finds in regular mid-latitude low pressure systems, and the maximum winds are found in a curved band to the storm's northeast, well away from the center. Storms of this nature are called subtropical. If this system continues to intensify and attain maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, it wil be named Subtropical Storm Vince. See the Hurricane FAQ for more information on subtropical storms.

Wind shear over the system is about 15 knots this evening, which is barely favorable for tropical storm development. Wind shear is expected to fluctuate around 10-15 knots through Monday, which should allow some slow intensification. After that time, higher shear is expected. TD 22 is over water of 26 - 27C, which is just warm enough to support a tropical storm. However, its current track will push the storm just south of Bermuda on Sunday, where water temperatures fall below 26C, which may cause some temporary weakening before the waters warm up again. By Tuesday, when the storm is expected to turn north, water temperatures again fall below 26C, and slow weakening should result. However, the forecast beyond three days has a higher than usual level of uncertainty, because most of the computer models are forecasting that a second tropical cyclone may form behind TD 22 by Monday and steer the storm more to the west. In any case, intensification beyond a strong tropical storm is unlikely given the marginal sea surface temperatures and wind shear, and the worst the U.S. is likely to get from this storm is a repeat of Tropical Storm Tammy.


Figure 1.Sea Surface temperatures below TD 22 are just barely high enough to support a tropical storm. The blue color (26C) is the dividing line between temperatures that are warm enough and not warm enough to support a tropical storm.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown disorganized today, and now has 20 knots of shear over it. Development is not expected through Sunday of this system.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

October outlook
Historically, 20% of all Atlantic tropical storms have occured in the month of October. In a nomal year, this means we can expect two tropical storms, one of which becomes a hurricane. According to Dr. Bill Gray's October 2005 hurricane forecast issued on October 3, this year we can expect an above average October, with three tropical storms, two of which become hurricanes--one of those a major hurricane. We have already had two named storms this month, Stan and Tammy. Vince seems like a good bet by Sunday. Long range computer model forecasts continue to show that conditions for breeding tropical storms will be excellent until at least the last week of October, so two more named storms--Vince and Wilma--will likely result by October 21. This would tie 2005 with 1933 as the busiest hurricane season ever. It is interesting to note that in 1933, the final three storms all showed up after October 25. If 2005 follows a similar pattern, we'll have Alpha, Beta and Gamma in addition to Vince and Wilma before it's all over. Dr. Bill Gray is not forecasting any November storms to form. However, we should get at least one, given the current pattern and continued above-normal sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Typical tropical storm formation areas for October.

The next update will be Sunday around 11 am.

Jeff Masters

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134. KansasSoldier
3:25 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Good morning Stateside people... Woke up to a magnitude 4.4 earthquake here yesterday, shook people but caused no damage, and it was what was left of the 7.6 that shook up Pakistan.
Other than that, all is well.
More laters
133. CosmicEvents
3:21 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
If Vince does happen to spin up......his vertical development will interact with the remnants of Tammy, causing an STD.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5672
132. guygee
3:18 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Jupiter - I will try to keep a limited subset of comments to myself, the ones I feel are not relevent here. Post-hurricane emergency management and privitization of the NWS seem to be relevent topics. Also, no-bid contracts for hurricane reconstruction would seem to be relevent. I am sorry if some here to not like to hear about these things. Please feel free to complain to the system admininstrator in the future, I will be happy to submit my comments to their judgement.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
131. CosmicEvents
3:12 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
leftyy......i know what the global models are. My point is that the global models(take the GFS for example), are not right 100% of the time. My point is that they are signifigantly statistically correct more in the high season storms than in the late season storms.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5672
130. Weathermandan
3:11 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
strange...all of a sudden there's like nothing in the tropics of imminent concern lol

areas of interest though...
1. Surface trough stretching from the Bahamas to Puerto Rico
2. Remnant circulation of Tammy producing a small cluster of showers/thunderstorms just off of Cape Canaveral, FL
3. Low pressure between the Azores and Canaries has an outside chance of becoming a subtropical storm
4. Does the ULL north of the Lesser Antilles (that ripped apart STD 22) have a chance to itself become a STD/STS?
129. tornadoty
3:08 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
I knew that Lefty. I've been talking about Invest96.
128. fflattiger
3:08 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Jupiter,
Well said.
127. AySz88
3:07 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
(Dr. Masters has a new post up.)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
126. leftyy420
3:05 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
lol i amabout 95 percent sure it will not be named. lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
125. JupiterFL
3:05 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Guygee, I don't really think it should be privatized but it was the other comments that pissed me off. That plus all the other articles that you post on here. It is obvious to all that you dislike the current administration but please keep your comments to yourself.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
124. guygee
3:04 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Thank you, iyou, a simple answer to a simple question.
Hope we all all done with the bickering now.


Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
123. leftyy420
3:04 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
here u go torn. std 22 bye bye lol


satellite imagery this evening indicates that the depression is no
longer producing any deep convection... and what convection there
had been earlier this evening was not at all organized about the
low level center... which is now completely exposed. Therefore...
the system no longer has the characteristics of either a
subtropical or tropical cyclone. The demise of the depression has
been brought on by strong easterly shear on the northern periphery
of the large mid/upper-level low to its south. This shear is not
forecast to abate any time soon... so regeneration appears
unlikely... but the remant low will be monitored for the seemingly
remote possibility of developing new convection.
The track forecast assumes the system will remain a shallow remnant
low and anticipates a general west-northwestward motion... in the
low level flow around the southwestern periphery of high pressure
over the north-central Atlantic... for the next two to three days
until the low dissipates.
Additional information on the this system can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

Forecaster Knabb
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
122. Weathermandan
3:04 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
STD 22 went bye-bye :(

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
121. seflagamma
3:04 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Jupiter, thanks again, mistake mine..I just so use to everything being ".com" I should know better because my own personal email is a ".net"...

You all please keep the info coming. I will check back in later. Got to go see the beginning of my St.Louis Cardinals game.
I really do enjoy lurking most of the time and sometimes getting involved and asking questions. When you all post links, I always look at them. Not sure where all of those personal blogs/websites are located people mention. can't find those. I have really enjoyed this over the past 2 months and I think I will lurk while we are discussing winter snow stormes in a few months.!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
120. tornadoty
3:03 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
I'll have the defibrillator ready, Lefty.
119. guygee
3:02 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
JupiterFL - Should I tak ethat to mean you agree the NWS should be privatized, then?


Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
118. Weathermandan
3:01 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
I wonder...will these showers over the ocean consolidate into a band that'll set up over me? (Suffolk County, Long Island) or will it swing off to the east and leave me dry for tomorrow? I heard more heavy rain...so I'm guessing bandage? lol whoa that's actually a word...not what it means though..oh well =)
117. iyou
3:00 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
guygee - this might help you out somewhat - http://slate.msn.com/id/2123557/ - 'Santorum's Mighty Wind : The AccuWeather Protection Act of 2005'
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
116. leftyy420
2:59 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
still waiting on the nhc discussion for an update on ur system, torn.


i will say if some how it gets named i would be shocked lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
115. paweatherfan
2:59 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Gamma
rain anyway!!!In my area between 6 to 12 inches depending on location. pretty nasty
114. seflagamma
2:58 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Jupiter, thanks for the support. This is a non-partician blog site for weather nerds!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
113. Weathermandan
2:57 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
It's actually pretty breezy here lol it was windier earlier though...much windier...(LaGuardia Airport had a gust to about 45 mph this afternoon)
112. JupiterFL
2:57 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
seflagamma its actually moveon.org. I think.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
111. leftyy420
2:56 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
cause iots a low, just like a noreaster just not as strong or developed. had it tracked over the gulf stream u would really have gotten hammered like i thought would happen earlier but it tracked more inland and did not bomb out
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
110. hurigo
2:56 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
thank you left. Confused, new to entries, and difficulty in keeping current w/models, info. So, not NE, but dissabled? Appreciate the info. Need to get better so that I can better participate.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6731
109. JupiterFL
2:55 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
I see you just can't keep your mouth shut guygee. Always coming on here with your articles and political stuff. I tried to warn you but you just keep going and going so no your getting pissed when the other guys get on you. What goes around comes around.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
108. tornadoty
2:54 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
I meant hurricane strength. And if you knew that, shame on you. I'm very tired.
107. seflagamma
2:54 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Pa and Dan,
Are you in the NE getting tails of all that stuff floating up from down here? That radar looked pretty impressive. You are getting worse wind and rain that we got in South Fla. Hold on tight.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
106. paweatherfan
2:54 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Weatherman
looks more to me like a Nor easter when it bombs out the way it's wrapped up. I'm just suprised by the lack of wind! Winding down here as well .12 inches hr rainfall rate, just about over. Dry area just to my west. Good excitement for 2 days!!
105. Weathermandan
2:53 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Sorry i guess "wrapped up" wasn't the right term to use I meant why is it all...swirly lookin..lol
104. leftyy420
2:53 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
torn for a subtropical system to reach hurricane status it would have to become fully tropical and no longer be tropical and it would be called hurricane **** enter name here ****
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
103. Weathermandan
2:52 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
ok now I just had a wind gust to 30 WHAT'S GOING ON LOL. I opened the window and leaves started flying in HAHA..not a good idea... :-D
102. tornadoty
2:52 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
TWC just mentioned my system, Lefty. Yes, it is now "my system".
101. leftyy420
2:52 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
maiden its not wrapped up. there is a very strong ridge to your east that has been making the winds gusty at times
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
100. tornadoty
2:51 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Hey Lefty, I was thinking. In the ultra-rare and unlikely event that a subtropical storm reached hurricane status, what would it be called?
99. Weathermandan
2:49 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
paweatherfan
I'm on Long Island. The rain just wound down a little bit but it's still steady light to moderate rain. Highest wind gust was around noon today (about 40 mph). Some small branches down and what not but nothing of any real consequence. My only question is...why is this storm so wrapped up??

F.Y.I.-just had a gust to about 25 mph lol
98. guygee
2:49 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Hey seflagamma - Feel fre to moveon yourself. I asked for the bill number that will privatize the NWS. Seems pretty relevent to me?

Admin, agree?

I never mentioned "Bush", it was in your mind seflagamma.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
97. seflagamma
2:49 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
lefty, thank you, it might be worth it to get back to normal for a few days...sefla gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
95. leftyy420
2:48 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
told u man. lol. the models all forcasted her to fall apart.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
94. fflattiger
2:48 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Lefty.
That is good news and thank you for it :)
93. tornadoty
2:47 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
She's dead, Lefty:

Link

I think I answered my own question.
92. leftyy420
2:46 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
sefl, nothing right now. i see no storm anywhere near florida for 10 days ateleast
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
91. seflagamma
2:46 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
guygee, keep your anti-bush off of this blog, there are others you can go to like "moveon.com" for that kind of propaganda.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
90. paweatherfan
2:45 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
weathermandan,
Where are u out of? I'm located in northern Bucks Pa. This event surpassed remenants of Floyd in my opinion. Thank god the ground was so dry!! your right though no wind at all.highest gust I got all day was 11mph
89. leftyy420
2:45 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
u mean std 22. thats hwta we have now std 22 and it will dissipate in 24 hrs maybe less. but there is a ridge that will block the system that will form south of it from veering ne
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
88. tornadoty
2:44 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Hey Lefty, why hasn't the NHC issued the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook?
87. guygee
2:43 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Skyepony or anyone else - What is this about a bill to "privatize" NWS?? Like N.O. "Emergency Preparedness Plan"
was privatized?? Who gets the contract, Haliburton?

Sorry I know, no politics, but this is war!

Anyone know of the bill # or have any links?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
86. seflagamma
2:43 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Lefty, it is about 10 40pm and the beautiful grand daughter is sleeping for awhile and the St. Louis Cardinal Game doesn't come on until 11pm.

I want to know as much as you can predict; what is coming to SE Fl in the near future. I really want to re-claim my back yard but not to just spit in the wind and have to bring everything back in again a few days later.
Please give me in plain English what your gut tells you for the next few weeks.
Thanks,
SE Fla Gamma (will my name Gamma be used this year?)
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
85. hurigo
2:42 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
Pardon me left, re std21+
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6731
84. leftyy420
2:42 AM GMT on October 09, 2005
and torn its not the same area. just north of brmuda is different than north of africa very different
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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