The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 28, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

For thirty days and thirty nights the rain fell in unending torrents. By the end of the biblical deluge, rivers of water ten feet deep flowed through the streets of Sacramento, and an astounding 29.28 inches of rain had fallen on San Francisco. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in the Sierras, the moist flow of air from Hawaii--often called an "atmospheric river" or the "Pineapple Express"--hit the steeply sloping mountainsides and rose upwards. The air expanded and cooled, causing truly prodigious rains, with the mining town of Sonora receiving 8.5 feet of rain over a 2-month period. The resulting floods inundated California's Central Valley with a lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.

The above event occurred in January 1862, and similar extreme rain events have deluged in California seven times in the past 2,000 years--about once every 300 years. Great storms like the flood of 1862 will happen again. If the planet continues to warm, as expected, the odds of such an event will at least double by 2100, due to the extra moisture increased evaporation from the oceans will add to the air. A group of scientists, emergency managers, and policy makers gathered in Sacramento, California earlier this month to discuss how the state might respond to a repeat of the 1862 rain event--the ARkStorm Scenario. The "AR" stands for "Atmospheric River", the "k" for 1,000 (like a 1-in-1000 year event), and of course "ARkStorm" is meant to summon visions of biblical-scale deluge, similar to the great flood of 1862. The team's final report envisions the most expensive disaster in world history, with direct damages and loss of economic activity amounting to $725 billion.

"Atmospheric Rivers" was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.


Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are "Atmospheric Rivers", and are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. This Atmospheric River occurred on December 21, 2010, and brought very heavy flooding rains to Southern California. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

California's Delta Region levees at high risk of failure
Much of Central California's water supply and agricultural areas are protected by an antiquated and poorly maintained set of levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers that are in serious danger of failure during an extreme flood or major earthquake. The 1,600 miles of levees protect 500,000 people, 2 million acres of farmland, and structures worth $47 billion. Of particular concern is the delta at the confluence of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, about 80 miles inland from San Francisco Bay. The Delta Region receives runoff from more than 40% of California, and is the hub of California's water supply system, supplying water to 25 million people and 3 million acres of farmland. Key transportation and communication lines cross the region. The Delta Region is home to dozens of islands with highly productive farms that have subsided to elevations as much as 25 feet below sea level. Jeffrey Mount, director of the Center for Integrated Watershed Science and Management at the University of California at Davis, said in a recent interview with MSNBC, "The chances of a catastrophic flood occurring in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sometime in the next 50 years are about two out of three." He called Sacramento, which is only protected to a 1-in-80 year flood by its levees, "the most at-risk large metropolitan area in the country, with less than half the protection that New Orleans had. It is at extreme risk due to levee failure and subsidence."" The most serious catastrophe for the levees in the Delta Region would be a major earthquake occurring during the dry season. Such a quake would allow salt water to intrude from San Francisco Bay, shutting off the fresh water supply for millions of Californians for months. Collapse of the levees during the wet season would be less devastating, as water pressure from the relatively high flow rates of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers would keep salt water from intruding into the Delta Region. There are no good solutions to California's Delta Region water vulnerabilities, but a new $10 billion dollar canal that would route fresh water around the region is being proposed as a possible way Califoria could avoid losing its fresh water supply if a catatrophic failure of the Delta Region levees allowed salt water intrusion to occur.

A 2009 study by the California Department of Water Resources concluded:

The Delta Region as it exists today is unsustainable. Seismic risk, high water conditions, sea level rise and land subsidence threaten levee integrity. A seismic event is the single greatest risk to levee integrity in the Delta Region. If a major earthquake occurs, levees would fail and as many as 20 islands could be flooded simultaneously. This would result in economic costs and impacts of $15 billion or more. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to Delta Region levees, winter storms and related high water conditions are the most common cause of levee failures in the region. Under business-as-usual practices, high water conditions could cause about 140 levee failures in the Delta over the next 100 years. Multiple island failures caused by high water would but could still be extensive and could cause approximately $8 billion or more in economic costs and impacts. Dry-weather levee failures [also called sunny-day events] unrelated to earthquakes, such as from slumping or seepage, will continue to occur in the Delta about once every seven years. Costs to repair a single island flooded as the result of a dry-weather levee failure are expected to exceed $50 million. The risk of flooding in the Delta Region will only increase with time if current management practices are not changed. By the year 2100, Delta levee failure risks due to high water conditions will increase by 800 percent. The risk of levee failure from a major earthquake is projected to increase by 93 percent during the same period.


The ARkStorm scenario and Great Flood of 1862 are discussed in much more detail by weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post.


Figure 2. Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, 2004. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources. A 1997 flood in the Delta Region did $510 million damage, damaged or destroyed 32,000 homes and businesses, and left 120,000 homeless.

Wilma pounding New Zealand; Australia eyes two potential new tropical cyclones
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here. Activity has picked up markedly this week, with the formation of the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is currently pounding New Zealand's North Island with heavy rains and strong winds, and is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to skirt the west coast of Australia over the next few days and rapidly weaken, but could bring heavy rains to the coast near Perth when it makes landfall on Sunday as a tropical storm. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast by the European model to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction of such a storm forming. If the cyclone were to form, it would be a serious blow for Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Bianca, the globe's second major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 06:30 GMT on January 28, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Biana is expected to rapidly weaken and hit the Australian coast near Perth as a tropical storm on Sunday. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 455 - 405

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Quoting Skyepony:


The burning of coal for power really ramped up in 1712. The heavy use of coal began in the Middle ages. Thick air pollution, especially from cities is well documented from the late 1500s forward.

Hadn't realized this had been run over already. Very recent article. Really intriguing considering how Atlantic Ocean temps drive our season.


Air pollution tends to reflect more solar radiation back into space than it traps in the troposphere.

Also, Mann's own famous hockey-stick reconstruction shows no temperature increase until after 1900. That doesn't seem to fit with your reasoning. Global warming is considered to have been caused by humans since the 20th century, not before.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
451. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


I don't care if it's from calcific pneumosystemic acidification aquifers. He still won't like it. LOL J/K


Yeah I should have put an evil laugh in there..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 311 Comments: 41443
.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #48
TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
6:00 AM WST January 30 2011
=======================================

At 5:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category One (990 hPa) located at 31.1S 111.4E, or 435 km west northwest of Perth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Bianca is rapidly weakening and is expected to be below cyclone intensity today before it reaches the coast.

However, tides between Jurien Bay and Dunsborough will be higher than normal and are likely to rise above the highest astronomical tide level on Sunday evening. ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF, COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS are possible. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for further information.

Heavy rainfall is expected south of a line Bunbury to Albany this morning however extensive flooding is not expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany, including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton has been CANCELLED.

No further advices will be issued for this system.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 1:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
448. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
8:00 AM EST January 30 2011
=========================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (988 hPa) located 17.5S 151.5E, or 530 km east northeast of Townsville and 445 km northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently moving southwest and is expected to continue moving in this direction. It may intensify as it approaches the Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast late tonight.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Proserpine late today.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast abnormally high tides are expected between Townsville and Bowen. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCAL FLOODING is expected to develop about the coast and adjacent inland near and to the south of the cyclone, extending as far south as Sarina, as it approaches and crosses the coast overnight Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

The Cyclone WARNING has been extended to coastal and island communities from Cardwell to Proserpine.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities between Innisfail and Lucinda and Proserpine to St Lawrence has been CANCELLED.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Anthony will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherboy1992:


Neither do I. It looks like a chain email someone faked and spread around.

Some cool articles posted today. Can't read hcubed's article. That's annoying.


I read everything, even if it is annoying. That is why most people considered me a PITA.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28794
446. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hcubed:


And, according to sources, (http://www.springerlink.com/content/jkh7704833557126/), these planktic foraminifers: "...most species live in the surface to sub-thermocline layer of the open ocean, and in marginal seas like the Mediterranean, Caribbean, South China Sea, and Red Sea. Planktic foraminifers are absent in shallow marginal seas, for example, the North Sea. Planktic foraminifers respond to food, temperature and chemistry of the ambient seawater. Species abundance varies according to seasons, water masses, and water depths. Symbiont-bearing species depend on light and are restricted to the euphotic zone..."

Makes you wonder how they were able to discount all the other factors, and center on temp alone.


I would think because they all have a life cycle, go where they should each season (this being the same for the next generation) & then die to settle in a layer in the bottom. Comparing like to like. I've had a lot of biology but not so much Marine Biology.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 311 Comments: 41443
444. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


Again, as when Michael posted this, I will point out that the hockey-spike that jets upward at 1850 on that graph doesn't seem to fit well with current theory, since our greenhouse emissions were next to nothing up to 1920, and our spike in emissions did not begin to take on a hockey stick shape until 1950, a hundred years after this reconstruction shows Atlantic SSTs skyrocketing.


The burning of coal for power really ramped up in 1712. The heavy use of coal began in the Middle ages. Thick air pollution, especially from cities is well documented from the late 1500s forward.

Hadn't realized this had been run over already. Very recent article. Really intriguing considering how Atlantic Ocean temps drive our season.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 311 Comments: 41443
Quoting Skyepony:


That graph is derived from “planktic foraminifers in a sediment core”.


And, according to sources, (http://www.springerlink.com/content/jkh7704833557126/), these planktic foraminifers: "...most species live in the surface to sub-thermocline layer of the open ocean, and in marginal seas like the Mediterranean, Caribbean, South China Sea, and Red Sea. Planktic foraminifers are absent in shallow marginal seas, for example, the North Sea. Planktic foraminifers respond to food, temperature and chemistry of the ambient seawater. Species abundance varies according to seasons, water masses, and water depths. Symbiont-bearing species depend on light and are restricted to the euphotic zone..."

Makes you wonder how they were able to discount all the other factors, and center on temp alone.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Quoting Skyepony:


That graph is derived from planktic foraminifers in a sediment core.


I don't care if it's from calcific pneumosystemic acidification aquifers. He still won't like it. LOL J/K
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28794
440. Skyepony (Mod)
hcubed ~ The one I posted is backing you up that these events weren't always so global. The Little Ice Age is barely noticeable in the Atlantic Ocean temp record.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 311 Comments: 41443
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know of any book published by Albert Einstein with the title of God v Science.
Lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know of any book published by Albert Einstein with the title of God v Science.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28794
Quoting Skyepony:
Temperatures of North Atlantic %u201Care unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming%u201D %u2014 Science
The 3.5�F warming of Fram Strait water over the past century is "not just the latest in a series of natural multidecadal oscillations."

Temperature reconstructions of upper Atlantic Water in the eastern Fram Strait over the past ~2100 years



Again, as when Michael posted this, I will point out that the hockey-spike that jets upward at 1850 on that graph doesn't seem to fit well with current theory, since our greenhouse emissions were next to nothing up to 1920, and our spike in emissions did not begin to take on a hockey stick shape until 1950, a hundred years after this reconstruction shows Atlantic SSTs skyrocketing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
Quoting misanthrope:


I won't have access to the full paper until Monday but, going by the abstract, the results in this paper seem to be in agreement with previous findings. I'm not sure what you think the big deal is.

For the record, the term "midge transfer function" cracks me up.

" Over the past 2000 years, our TJuly record displays patterns similar to those inferred from a wide variety of temperature proxy indicators at other sites in Alaska, including fluctuations coeval with the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and the First Millennial Cooling (centered around 1400 cal BP). "



The problem is, there are some who want to say the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were not GLOBAL periods.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
434. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Don't let atmoaggie see this.


That graph is derived from planktic foraminifers in a sediment core.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 311 Comments: 41443
Rebuttal in Works Houston..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
Quoting Skyepony:
Temperatures of North Atlantic “are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming” — Science
The 3.5°F warming of Fram Strait water over the past century is "not just the latest in a series of natural multidecadal oscillations."

Temperature reconstructions of upper Atlantic Water in the eastern Fram Strait over the past ~2100 years


Don't let atmoaggie see this.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28794
..Turn this Blog around, back to my loving ground..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
We're talking about religion here. "I have a bad feeling about this."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
429. Skyepony (Mod)
Temperatures of North Atlantic %u201Care unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming%u201D %u2014 Science
The 3.5F warming of Fram Strait water over the past century is "not just the latest in a series of natural multidecadal oscillations."

Temperature reconstructions of upper Atlantic Water in the eastern Fram Strait over the past ~2100 years

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 311 Comments: 41443
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Why's there a religious debate on a weather blog?


God only knows! Odd isn't it?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28794
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Why's there a religious debate on a weather blog?


Because some people have a problem keeping science and faith separate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So is Quaternary Science Reviews considered a "peer reviewed" journal?

New paper demonstrates that the Current Warm Period (CWP) is not unprecedented, at least for Alaska

They're finding that traces of the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age are showing up in Alaska — and all were warmer than the CWP (current warming period).

So what will be criticized first - the paper's findings, or the scientists?
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Well,dang!! There is a pooper in every crowd.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
423. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 AM EST January 30 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (988 hPa) located 17.1S 152.0E, or 600 km east northeast of Townsville and 510 km northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently moving southwest and is expected to continue moving in this direction. It may slightly intensify as it approaches the Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast early Monday morning.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Lucinda and Proserpine late today.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast abnormally high tides are expected between Townsville and Bowen. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCAL FLOODING is expected to develop about the coast and adjacent inland near and to the south of the cyclone, extending as far south as Sarina, as it approaches and crosses the coast overnight Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Lucinda to Proserpine.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Innisfail to Lucinda and Proserpine to Saint Lawrence.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 18.9S 149.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 19.5S 146.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.2S 141.9E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 25.9S 140.7E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Disorganised convection has persisted on the southern side of the system though cloud top temperatures remain relatively warm. In the absence of any organisation of convection around the centre in the next few hours, the intensification to category 2 remains uncertain.

Unable to resolve DT due to weak banding. Pattern T would result in T2.5. FT based on unadjusted MET.

Models continue to maintain a consistent southwestward movement towards the Queensland coast.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Anthony will be issued at 21:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #47
TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
3:00 AM WST January 30 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category One (985 hPa) located at 30.8S 110.8E, or 495 km west northwest of Perth and 535 km west northwest of Bunbury has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS

Tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste will be higher than normal and are likely to rise above the highest astronomical tide level on Sunday evening. ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF, COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS are possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible south of a line Bunbury to Albany with LOCALISED FLOODING. Extensive flooding is not expected.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible for a brief period southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.

VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast north of Bunbury and through the Central Wheat Belt. Please refer to Fire Weather Warning [IDW30000] for further information.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany, including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 31.8S 114.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 32.0S 118.1E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: -- --- --
72 HRS: -- --- --

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on persistence from previous microwave imagery. Recent microwave and IR imagery show deep convection to the southeast of the LLCC. Dvorak intensity: Recent shear pattern gives DT=2.0; adjusted MET is 2.5 based on W+ trend. FT constrained to 3.0 with CI held at 3.5. Maximum wind estimated at 45 knots consistent with latest SATCON value.

Weakening is likely to continue due to the cooler ocean temperatures [<26C] combined with strong NW shear of 30 knots. The system is being steered towards the southeast by a mid level trough approaching from the west.

The most likely scenario is that Bianca will weaken below cyclone intensity in the next 12 hours before it crosses the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push in and markedly increase the shear. However, there still remains the risk of an impact over the warning area on Sunday particularly for higher than normal tides on the high tide Sunday evening.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 21:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
421. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
6:00 AM FST January 30 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (1003 hPa) located at 14.3S 171.3E is reported as moving west at 11 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization improved slight past 12 hours. Convection has increased significantly in the past 6 hours. System lies along a surface trough and under a 250 HPA ridge axis in a weak sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. System expected to be steered westward mainly by the deep layer mean easterlies. Global model gradually develop the depression and maintain a west southwest track.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nevermind; I see Misanthrope beat me to it...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14511
Jedkins! Re: 408.


Best post ever, IMHO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The hide and other controls are there fer a reason.


Use them.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
Neo, I just want to personally thank you for being very civil on here. We all have different opinions on theorys and even facts. I appreciate that you didn't start jumping on me, I respect you for that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why's there a religious debate on a weather blog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
State of the Climate
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Selected Global Highlights for 2010

* For 2010, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record, at 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). 1998 is the third warmest year-to-date on record, at 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average.

* The 2010 Northern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest year on record, at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average. The 2010 Southern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the sixth warmest year on record, at 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average.

* The global land surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the second warmest on record, at 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average. The warmest such period on record occurred in 2007, at 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average.

* The global ocean surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average.

* In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which influences temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. A moderate-to-strong El Niño at the beginning of the year transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
The Truth is out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Rules of the Road

1. Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.
2. Threats, intimidation, especially that which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.

3. Foul language is not allowed.

4. Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.
5. Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.
6. No spam.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
Quoting Levi32:
Oh check it out! La Nina finally starts to show herself in the northern hemisphere longwave pattern on the GFS in 15 days:

This would mean a return of arctic cold to Alaska and western Canada, while the eastern U.S. would finally start warming up.

I hope that eastern warmth reaches Fargo, It's been solid cold for the past month except for the previous 3 days, and now the temp has dropped from 35F last night to near 0F this morning and all the slush has become a dangerous icy mess. might get down to -15 early next week. :-(

And worst of all, the ground is saturated with frozen groundwater and we have had lots of snow. We are planning for ANOTHER flood, 3rd in a row, god-dang-it!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jedkins......That is magnificent....I have to print that out and cherish it many, many more times....Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's 73 here.. In January!
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
"Let me explain the problem science has with religion." The atheist

professor of philosophy pauses before his class and then asks one of his new

students to stand.



'You're a Christian, aren't you, son?'



'Yes sir,' the student says.



'So you believe in God?'



'Absolutely '



'Is God good?'



'Sure! God's good.'



'Is God all-powerful? Can God do anything?'



'Yes'



'Are you good or evil?'



'The Bible says I'm evil.'



The professor grins knowingly. 'Aha! The Bible! He considers for a moment.

'Here's one for you. Let's say there's a sick person over here and you can

cure him. You can do it. Would you help him? Would you try?'



'Yes sir, I would.'



'So you're good...!'



'I wouldn't say that.'



'But why not say that? You'd help a sick and maimed person if you could.

Most of us would if we could. But God doesn't.'



The student does not answer, so the professor continues. 'He doesn't, does

he? My brother was a Christian who died of cancer, even though he prayed to

Jesus to heal him. How is this Jesus good? Can you answer that one?'



The student remains silent. 'No, you can't, can you?' the professor says.

He takes a sip of water from a glass on his desk to give the student time to

relax. 'Let's start again, young fella. Is God good?'



'Er..yes,' the student says.



'Is Satan good?'



The student doesn't hesitate on this one.. 'No.'



'Then where does Satan come from?'



The student falters. 'FromGod'



'That's right. God made Satan, didn't he? Tell me, son. Is there evil in

this world?'



'Yes, sir.'



'Evil's everywhere, isn't it? And God did make everything, correct?'



'Yes'



'So who created evil?' The professor continued, 'If God created everything,

then God created evil, since evil exists, and according to the principle

that our works define who we are, then God is evil.'



Again, the student has no answer. 'Is there sickness? Immorality? Hatred?

Ugliness? All these terrible things, do they exist in this world?'



The student squirms on his feet. 'Yes.'



'So who created them ?'



The student does not answer again, so the professor repeats his question.

'Who created them?' There is still no answer. Suddenly the lecturer breaks

away to pace in front of the classroom. The class is mesmerized. 'Tell me,'

he continues onto another student. 'Do you believe in Jesus Christ, son?'



The student's voice betrays him and cracks. 'Yes, professor, I do.'



The old man stops pacing. 'Science says you have five senses you use to

identify and observe the world around you. Have you ever seen Jesus?'



'No sir. I've never seen Him.'



'Then tell us if you've ever heard your Jesus?'



'No, sir, I have not.'



'Have you ever felt your Jesus, tasted your Jesus or smelt your Jesus? Have

you ever had any sensory perception of Jesus Christ, or God for that

matter?'



'No, sir, I'm afraid I haven't.'



'Yet you still believe in him?'



'Yes'



'According to the rules of empirical, testable, demonstrable protocol,

science says your God doesn't exist... What do you say to that, son?'



'Nothing,' the student replies.. 'I only have my faith.'



'Yes, faith,' the professor repeats. 'And that is the problem science has

with God. There is no evidence, only faith.'



The student stands quietly for a moment, before asking a question of His

own. 'Professor, is there such thing as heat? '



' Yes.



'And is there such a thing as cold?'



'Yes, son, there's cold too.'



'No sir, there isn't.'



The professor turns to face the student, obviously interested. The room

suddenly becomes very quiet. The student begins to explain. 'You can have

lots of heat, even more heat, super-heat, mega-heat, unlimited heat, white

heat, a little heat or no heat, but we don't have anything called 'cold'. We

can hit down to 458 degrees below zero, which is no heat, but we can't go

any further after that. There is no such thing as cold; otherwise we would

be able to go colder than the lowest -458 degrees. Every body or object is

susceptible to study when it has or transmits energy, and heat is what makes

a body or matter have or transmit energy.. Absolute zero (-458 F ) is the

total absence of heat. You see, sir, cold is only a word we use to describe

the absence of heat. We cannot measure cold. Heat we can measure in thermal

units because heat is energy. Cold is not the opposite of heat, sir, just

the absence of it.'



Silence across the room. A pen drops somewhere in the classroom, sounding

like a hammer.



'What about darkness, professor. Is there such a thing as darkness?'



'Yes,' the professor replies without hesitation. 'What is night if it isn't

darkness?'



'You're wrong again, sir. Darkness is not something; it is the absence of

something. You can have low light, normal light, bright light, flashing

light, but if you have no light constantly you have nothing and it's called

darkness, isn't it? That's the meaning we use to define the word. In

reality, darkness isn't. If it were, you would be able to make darkness

darker, wouldn't you?'



The professor begins to smile at the student in front of him. This will be a

good semester. 'So what point are you making, young man?'



'Yes, professor. My point is, your philosophical premise is flawed to start

with, and so your conclusion must also be flawed.'



The professor's face cannot hide his surprise this time. 'Flawed? Can you

explain how?'



'You are working on the premise of duality,' the student explains.. 'You

argue that there is life and then there's death; a good God and a bad God.

You are viewing the concept of God as something finite, something we can

measure. Sir, science can't even explain a thought.' 'It uses electricity

and magnetism, but has never seen, much less fully understood either one. To

view death as the opposite of life is to be ignorant of the fact that death

cannot exist as a substantive thing. Death is not the opposite of life, just

the absence of it.' 'Now tell me, professor. Do you teach your students

that they evolved from a monkey?'



'If you are referring to the natural evolutionary process, young man, yes,

of course I do.'



'Have you ever observed evolution with your own eyes, sir?'



The professor begins to shake his head, still smiling, as he realizes where

the argument is going. A very good semester, indeed.



'Since no one has ever observed the process of evolution at work and cannot

even prove that this process is an on-going endeavor, are you not teaching

your opinion, sir? Are you now not a scientist, but a preacher?'



The class is in uproar. The student remains silent until the commotion has

subsided. 'To continue the point you were making earlier to the other

student, let me give you an example of what I mean.' The student looks

around the room. 'Is there anyone in the class who has ever seen the

professor's brain?' The class breaks out into laughter. 'Is there anyone

here who has ever heard the professor's brain, felt the professor's brain,

touched or smelt the professor's brain? No one appears to have done so.. So,

according to the established rules of empirical, stable, demonstrable

protocol, science says that you have no brain, with all due respect, sir.'

'So if science says you have no brain, how can we trust your lectures, sir?'



Now the room is silent. The professor just stares at the student, his face

unreadable. Finally, after what seems an eternity, the old man answers. 'I

Guess you'll have to take them on faith.'



'Now, you accept that there is faith, and, in fact, faith exists with life,'

the student continues. 'Now, sir, is there such a thing as evil?' Now

uncertain, the professor responds, 'Of course, there is. We see it Everyday.

It is in the daily example of man's inhumanity to man. It is in The

multitude of crime and violence everywhere in the world.. These

manifestations are nothing else but evil.'



To this the student replied, 'Evil does not exist sir, or at least it does

not exist unto itself. Evil is simply the absence of God.. It is just like

darkness and cold, a word that man has created to describe the absence of

God. God did not create evil. Evil is the result of what happens when man

does not have God's love present in his heart. It's like the cold that comes

when there is no heat or the darkness that comes when there is no light.'



The professor sat down.



PS: The student was Albert Einstein. Albert Einstein wrote a book titled

'God vs. Science' in 1921.....



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'll take that, this winter has felt dreadfully long here in Florida. We had a very cold one last year, and this winter has been bad too, a little warming trend on top of above average rain will really be appreciated to farmers, regular people, and wild life alike in Florida.
it show it before as well but failed to happen now as we head into feb there is only a month and a half of winter left anyway before it normally starts to warm with the changing of the seasons
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Oh check it out! La Nina finally starts to show herself in the northern hemisphere longwave pattern on the GFS in 15 days:

This would mean a return of arctic cold to Alaska and western Canada, while the eastern U.S. would finally start warming up.




I'll take that, this winter has felt dreadfully long here in Florida. We had a very cold one last year, and this winter has been bad too, a little warming trend on top of above average rain will really be appreciated to farmers, regular people, and wild life alike in Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Jedkins....just read about your illness. You mentioned several friends also have had it, which leads one to believe it is a virus that has spread to you...which is what a virus does....and all may have different symtoms. Probably the reason it seems to come and go is because you are temporarily diquising the symtoms with meds. Drink, drink, drink lots of liquids. A virus will run its course,eventually. Hope you get better very soon.



Thanks! Its definitely not meds though, I don't take meds of any kind and haven't all my life. The only time I really have is one time I got a sinus infection and I got some antibiotics. But I don't drug my body full of pain killers and other pills, unless I absolutely would need them. Meds were designed to help people overcome what their body can't.

For whatever reason, this illness just comes in waves of pain. Who knows why, I'm not an expert on biology.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 455 - 405

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser