Nor'easter poised to dump heavy snows; Australian tropical cyclone season heats up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on January 26, 2011

Share this Blog
3
+

A developing low pressure system along the North Carolina coast will intensify today and move northeast towards Cape Cod, Massachusetts, bringing heavy rain and snow to the mid-Atlantic and New England. A swath of 6 - 10" of snow is expected over inland regions of New England, from Philadelphia to Boston. A storm surge of up to 2.5' is expected along the Massachusetts coast, which will cause mostly minor coastal flooding, but considerable erosion damage.

The 1.9" of snow that fell in Hartford, Connecticut yesterday brought that city's January snowfall total to 44.9", a new record for the month. With an additional 6 - 10 inches expected today, Hartford will surpass its record for snowiest month of all-time, the 45.3" that fell in December 1945.

The storm brought heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches to much of the Southeast yesterday, easing that region's La Niña-related drought. The low swept a cold front across Florida last night, bringing severe thunderstorms with damaging winds gusts of up to 75 mph to twenty locations in the state. One tornado was reported, but no significant damage was reported.


Figure 1. The cold front from today's Nor'easter swept across Florida last night, bringing a line of severe thunderstorms that spawned one tornado and numerous reports of damaging winds.

Tropical Cyclone activity heats up near Australia
The year's first Category 4 tropical cyclone is Tropical Cyclone Wilma, which is churning the waters near Tonga in the Southern Hemisphere with sustained winds of 135 mph (minimum Category 4 strength.) Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm. Substantial damage has been reported on Tonga, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is recurving out to sea, and will not affect Australia.

Australia is keeping an eye on Tropical Cylone Bianca, which is expected to skirt the northwest coast of the country over the next few days. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm late this week and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. This is potentially terrible news for Australia, which is attempting to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Wilma, the globe's first major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 01:45 GMT on January 26. 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 66 - 16

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


Please see Comment 27 LOL


And please don't tell me what to do! LOL

You know my English is not that good. What is a manbearpig? I translated it into German and it came out Mannbärschwein and Norwegian it was mannbjørnplugg. Doesn't make sense.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Quoting Grothar:


Thor??


Please see Comment 27 LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Production is only one half the total force needed,,Refining ,,a major Contributor to Co2 as well,is Limited in the US.

As the last refinery built in the USA was in 1978.

One cant get a EPA clearance to build one period today.

So the Saudi are smart folks.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I do like dat un Os..

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gee, NOAA has Facts and Stuff on Climate Change.

Go Fig'ya ?


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center



Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I Liked Linux in "The Great Pumpkin".


LOL, me too

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i kinda like climate shift myself how about one of those to put a loop on things but then again maybe its been loopie enough


Personally I like "Global destruction caused though innocent initial igorance and then caused by ignorance, arrogance and the stupidity of those who listen to people who have more money than them that tell them (the stupid people) not to worry, buy more stuff."

USeless as an acronym though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I Liked Linux in "The Great Pumpkin".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
god of thunder
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


Haha, thanks. Remember, you can only blame the thunderstorms on one thing only ;)


Thor??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually, I am a factualist, in all things. Religion, Life and even Politics (which is really hard to do). If it can be proven (beyond a reasonable doubt) I believe it... if it can't be... then I make my own conclusions on the available data.

Is GW entirely man's fault... NO
is GW happening.. YES
Is man contributing.. of course, we are one of the variables to any equation.
Can man alone stop it... NO

BTW, the term "man" (no offence meant Ladies) includes all Humans.

PS.. I don't like the term Global Warming.. we have beaten it to death... people ignore it now. I prefer the term "Climate Change" as the Climate has always "Changed"

i kinda like climate shift myself how about one of those to put a loop on things but then again maybe its been loopie enough
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
I love you caneswatch....

;)


Haha, thanks. Remember, you can only blame the thunderstorms on one thing only ;)
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Hurricaneblast:

Exceedingly heavy snow band moving onshore in Suffolk County, NY...

If that's all snow, I'm going to be very impressed. To me, it looks like some bright-banding may be taking place, and indication that some sleet (which is much more reflective than snow) may be trying to mix in. It'll be interesting to see what the reports show.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666

Exceedingly heavy snow band moving onshore in Suffolk County, NY...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/features/gogreen/story.html?id=b29f2a10-5447-4f6b-aa2b-af099ae683 87                                                                                                                                                                                      This more than likely was already posted before,but after reading it myself ,  My first thought was how did the forest get underneath the glacier in the first place?      
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You mean you wouldn't hire me, no matter how smart I am. tsk tsk. Gee, atmo, that is kind of harsh. Even Torvalds wouldn't think that is very fair.
Hah! He'd love it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:
Looks like ice extent is near it's peak, I'm sure volume has already begun to decline. Also looks like that pattern which had setup earlier over the Pacific ocean is setting up again. More moisture and heat will be sent northward again, resulting in even quicker melting. The Atlantic ocean has already been dumping warm moist air northward as can be seen from the recent melting.


Yeah, I don't think so...



This is only a mean of 80N and poleward, but where in the Arctic is it warm enough to melt anything, except for a tiny part of northern Europe? (To Norway: the gulf stream says "you're welcome").

The rest of the Arctic, all 98% of it, is at least 10C below zero, most of it 20C, or more, below zero.

I'll save you some time, click on the yellow circles for a current weather report: http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
! You're joking, right?

Heck, we won't even consider an applicant with zero UNIX/Linux user experience...


You mean you wouldn't hire me, no matter how smart I am. tsk tsk. Gee, atmo, that is kind of harsh. Even Torvalds wouldn't think that is very fair.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Quoting Jedkins01:



yeah but according to the Lords of Global Warming, there are either deniers, those who oppose Global Warming, and those who are for Global Warming, infallible scientists who never lie or distort data.

If you support Global Warming, you automatically have discovered what its like to be an infinite genius, so Orca, you must be a denier :)


Actually, I am a factualist, in all things. Religion, Life and even Politics (which is really hard to do). If it can be proven (beyond a reasonable doubt) I believe it... if it can't be... then I make my own conclusions on the available data.

Is GW entirely man's fault... NO
is GW happening.. YES
Is man contributing.. of course, we are one of the variables to any equation.
Can man alone stop it... NO

BTW, the term "man" (no offence meant Ladies) includes all Humans.

PS.. I don't like the term Global Warming.. we have beaten it to death... people ignore it now. I prefer the term "Climate Change" as the Climate has always "Changed"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
! You're joking, right?

Heck, we won't even consider an applicant with zero UNIX/Linux user experience...


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


I never stated he was right... actually as far as a good fiction book.. I would rate it as a 6-7 at best.

As I stated...

"The Appendix's and Bibliography would put to shame a lot of our GW posters on here. It should be mandatory reading for a few of the "stuff it down our throat" people on here."

I was just impressed with be ability to back up the story plot line in the appendix's and bibliography. It just goes to show you... you can use "legitimate" published works to prove any theory.

As for Chrichton distorted an misrepresented their research. We are fully aware both sides are guilty of this.



yeah but according to the Lords of Global Warming, there are either deniers, those who oppose Global Warming, and those who are for Global Warming, infallible scientists who never lie or distort data.

If you support Global Warming, you automatically have discovered what its like to be an infinite genius, so Orca, you must be a denier :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


who cares about Linux, you waste your life doing it. Only compute geeks that have no life use Linux, its pretty much useless
! You're joking, right?

Heck, we won't even consider an applicant with zero UNIX/Linux user experience...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can always count on you, jed.....


:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I love you caneswatch....

;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


I have kids under 10 that have mastered Ubuntu. After 3 days of it myself, felt like second nature. People saying it's hard haven't tried or want you to pay for windoze.
Yep. Not that hard.

Never saw this in Ubuntu...enjoy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
did Global Warming cause last nights storm in Florida?


oh of course! and I'm sure I can get peer review publications to back it up too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
HeHe. That's me! (Though I am not running NoScript...would kill a lot of things I want to happen).

(This message brought to you by Linux)


who cares about Linux, you waste your life doing it. Only compute geeks that have no life use Linux, its pretty much useless
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Excellent post as usual, Dr. Masters.

I'm thinking the Great Florida 2011 Winter Superstorm doomcasters/hypercasters must be resting and recuperating on oxygen somewhere. ;-) I know it was rough in a few areas--though it could have been far worse. But here in Naples, at least, it was just three minutes of heavy rain, another 100 minutes of light rain, very little wind, and maybe five lightning flashes, all so far off as to be silent. IOW, NBD.

On the plus side, the grasses and trees damaged by frost the first week of the month are coming back nicely; pleasant greening is everywhere. The temperature is a mild 68 right now, though we're headed for a few more nights with lows in the mid 40s.


yeah well not everything revolves around what happened in Naples :)


I agree though, it was over hyped yesterday, it was a very strong squall line, but it was not the worst one since the super storm of 1993( some were crazy enough to say it was actually gonna rival it lol).

I was worried that there was gonna be a lot more tornado damage, but thankfully it looks like that stable marine layer did help to keep things in check. There were so many reports of funnel clouds in those tornado warned areas last night, but hardly any of them touched down from what we know. It is believed that is thanks to that stable surface layer.


Even still, don't down play it either, it could have been worse, it just didn't. It was very exciting around here in Pinellas County I'll tell you that. The storm get bad enough to make my power go out temporarily. My power rarely goes out unless it gets really bad. There were some limbs down here and there around my place.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30. JRRP

6.1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
29. Skyepony (Mod)
Bazaar~ this hog operation fire started with a snow collapsed roof..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
28. Skyepony (Mod)
I thought we'd already decided this, looks like it is getting published..

Rogue storm system caused devastating Pakistan floods

Washington, Jan 26 : Scientists have found that the disastrous floods that hit Pakistan last summer were caused by a rogue weather system that wandered hundreds of miles farther west than is normal for such systems.

The terrible floods killed more than 2,000 people and left more than 20 million injured or homeless in Pakistan.

The flooding began in July and at one point it was estimated that 20 percent of Pakistan's total land area was under water. more here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
did Global Warming cause last nights storm in Florida?


I believe Manbearpig caused it.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
26. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting atmoaggie:
There's one script I'd rather not kill... ;-)Well, that depends if we're talking about Ubuntu or Slackware. I know a few folks that are deathly afraid of a terminal, but are happy with their switch from Windoze to Ubuntu. And the "how do I" documentation is exactly what it should be. Clear, thorough, accessible. (much better than Windoze documentation, IMHO)


I have kids under 10 that have mastered Ubuntu. After 3 days of it myself, felt like second nature. People saying it's hard haven't tried or want you to pay for windoze.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SQUAWK!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AMY!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
23. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Looks like my hype yesterday was accurate


I missed your hype yesterday. What occured was pretty in line with what I posted day before yesterday. A few tornadoes. Best chance I-4 corridor, not a widespread devastating event. Should be interesting to see what the field trips come up with today.

Here's some highlighrs of the damage reports..(note to self..must get night vision glasses)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW MALABAR 28.00N 80.65W
01/25/2011 BREVARD FL NEWSPAPER
FLORIDA TODAY REPORTED A TREE FELL ON HOUSE CAUSING THREE
HOLES IN ROOF ON HAWTHORNE LANE IN PALM BAY.

FLORIDA TODAY REPORTED TRAMPOLINE LIFTED OUT OF BACKYARD
AND THROWN 200 YARDS INTO HOUSE IN INDIGO CROSSING
SUBDIVISION IN VIERA.

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG TITUSVILLE 28.58N 80.83W
01/25/2011 BREVARD FL BROADCAST MEDIA
NEWS 13 REPORTED CARPORT THROWN INTO POWER LINES NEAR
TOMOKA AVE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG GROVELAND 28.56N 81.85W
01/25/2011 LAKE FL EMERGENCY MNGR
INTERSECTION OF SR 19/50 TREES DOWN ON 12 TO 20 HOMES.
REPORT FROM LAKE COUNTY EM.

0726 PM FUNNEL CLOUD PATRICK AIRFORCE BASE 28.24N 80.61W
01/25/2011 BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL
OFFICAL METAR/SPECI FROM KCOF/PATRICK AFB. FUNNEL CLOUD
OBSERVED SW MOVING NE. NIGHT VISION GLASSES USED IN THIS
OBSERVATION.

0812 PM FLOOD WNW INDIALANTIC 28.09N 80.57W
01/25/2011 BREVARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER
ALONG A1A SOUTH AND AROUND SR192. FLOODED, WATER UP TO
DOORS ON MOST CARS. POWER OUTAGE ALSO.

0613 PM TSTM WND DMG WINTER SPRINGS 28.68N 81.27W
01/25/2011 SEMINOLE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
SANFORD PD REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN AT HAYES ROAD AND
EAST BAHAMA ROAD. THIS IS A CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS REPORT
WHICH INADVERTENTLY LISTED THE EVENT AS DENSE FOG.

$$

JRC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
did Global Warming cause last nights storm in Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're about a 7 years late on this one. The scientists whose research was used in that book weren't very happy about the way Chrichton distorted an misrepresented their research. They even publicly stated as much, but no apology was forthcoming from the author.

Also of note, Chrichton is a fiction writer, not a peer reviewed scientists. In that regard, even Watt's and McIntyre have more credibility because at least they have published peer reviewed research under their names before.

My "books" on science related issues are peer-reviewed articles written in science journals such as Nature. Until I see Chrichton publishing in one of those, he's just a fiction author espousing his own personal opinions on the subject.


You won't be seeing Crichton writing anything these days. He died two years ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just added it (NoScript), I can see it being a bit of a pain to setup... but I was surprised how many scripts were running... 4 for this page alone... especially using the "quote" function.
There's one script I'd rather not kill... ;-)
Quoting Floodman:


Linux is not used universally by large corporations because of the cost issue; IT protocols call for a homogenous environment for ease of use and maintenance. Your Oracle guy is the exception and if hes building Data structures it isn't for financial intitutions as they are all "Microsoft Farms"...again, easier to maintain, security protocols are standardized to DoD specs and you don;t need an IT staff trained in multiple platforms (other than client-server and mainframe)

Everyone likes to talk about Linux, but in practical applications it is over the heads of most end users
Well, that depends if we're talking about Ubuntu or Slackware. I know a few folks that are deathly afraid of a terminal, but are happy with their switch from Windoze to Ubuntu. And the "how do I" documentation is exactly what it should be. Clear, thorough, accessible. (much better than Windoze documentation, IMHO)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's video of the homes destroyed in Groveland, FL lastnight.


Looks like my hype yesterday was accurate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting calusakat:
Morning.

Regarding a discussion about Internet Security and Norton Anti-virus vs Avast?

The answer is...neither.

Best solution?

Linux w/built in firewall, Firefox and a Plug-in called NoScript.

Source? Senior Oracle Database Programmer who works for a global company and has to deal with the internet all the time.

He said...'I realize that there are some things I cannot do as "easily" by never running Windows, but then, I have never had to waste so much money and time dealing with the security issues... I'd rather have the time and money to work on the house.

From what I have read, Windows 7 is finally about as good on its security as Linux was 10 years ago, which is pretty darn good for Windows.'


Linux is not used universally by large corporations because of the cost issue; IT protocols call for a homogenous environment for ease of use and maintenance. Your Oracle guy is the exception and if hes building Data structures it isn't for financial intitutions as they are all "Microsoft Farms"...again, easier to maintain, security protocols are standardized to DoD specs and you don;t need an IT staff trained in multiple platforms (other than client-server and mainframe)

Everyone likes to talk about Linux, but in practical applications it is over the heads of most end users
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're about a 7 years late on this one. The scientists whose research was used in that book weren't very happy about the way Chrichton distorted an misrepresented their research. They even publicly stated as much, but no apology was forthcoming from the author.

Also of note, Chrichton is a fiction writer, not a peer reviewed scientists. In that regard, even Watt's and McIntyre have more credibility because at least they have published peer reviewed research under their names before.

My "books" on science related issues are peer-reviewed articles written in science journals such as Nature. Until I see Chrichton publishing in one of those, he's just a fiction author espousing his own personal opinions on the subject.


I never stated he was right... actually as far as a good fiction book.. I would rate it as a 6-7 at best.

As I stated...

"The Appendix's and Bibliography would put to shame a lot of our GW posters on here. It should be mandatory reading for a few of the "stuff it down our throat" people on here."

I was just impressed with be ability to back up the story plot line in the appendix's and bibliography. It just goes to show you... you can use "legitimate" published works to prove any theory.

As for Chrichton distorted an misrepresented their research. We are fully aware both sides are guilty of this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
For the GW crowd on both sides of the fence...

While I was in Mexico, laying back on the beach having a few... and running out of books to read...I was given a copy of a book called "State of Fear" by Michael Crichton.

Not a bad book.. not my normal cup of tea.. but a very interesting read. he bases the story on published facts and figures in regards to Global warming.

The Appendix's and Bibliography would put to shame a lot of our GW posters on here. It should be mandatory reading for a few of the "stuff it down our throat" people on here.



Best laugh of the week so far! To begin with, as Xyrus said in comment #13, you gotta remember that Crichton was a writer of fiction. You know, made-up stuff. That's not to say fiction writers have nothing to add to any conversation, but when a person's primary goal is to entertain and sell books, movie tickets, or TV shows, science becomes secondary.

Anyway, I won't go into great detail about Crichton's laughably wrong book, but I'll point out a few of the more ridiculous issues:

1) Crichton dismisses--or is ignorant of--the proven part pollution aerosols played in the slight cooling between 1940 and 1970.

2) Crichton repeatedly confuses instances of local cooling with global cooling. As much as denialists wish it were so, that's not the way it is.

3) Crichton repeatedly misrepresents what Dr. Jim Hansen said about the rate of climate change.

4) Crichton repeatedly lies by claiming that a majority of climate scientists believed in the 1970s that an ice age was coming. That's demonstrably wrong.

5) Crichton repeatedly lies about the Urban Heat Island Effect.

6) Crichton lies about sea level rise (or confuses it with something else).

7) In the afterword, Crichton states the foolish denialist fallacy that since we don't know everything, we don't know anything, so our best bet is to just keep things going the way they are.

8) Crichton's ridiculously asserts in the appendix that climate change science now is where the "science" of eugenics was back in the 1800s, so they're clearly equally invalid.

Oh, well. For those who prefer to get their climate science from fiction writers, State of Fear should work well. For everyone else, there are always actual climate scientists.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 66 - 16

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.