U.S. heavy precipitation events are increasing, but drought is not

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2011

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Yesterday, I introduced the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, which uses temperature and precipitation records to see if the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. Today, I'll focus on how the drought and precipitation extremes that go into the Climate Extremes Index have changed over the past century. The three precipitation-related factors to go into the Climate Extremes Index are:

1) The sum of: (a) the monthly percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) the percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

2) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.

Items 1 and 3 have shown no change in annual average value over the past century, but there has been a marked increase in the number of heavy 1-day precipitation events in recent decades. Thus, the record and near-record values of the Climate Extremes Index in recent years have been due to a combination of the increase in heavy 1-day precipitation events and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for heavy 1-day precipitation events shows that these events, on average, have affected 10% of the U.S. over the past century (black line). However, heavy precipitation events have increased in recent decades. The seven most extreme years since 1910 have all occurred since 1995, with 2010 ranking as the 5th most extreme year in the past 100 years. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Heavy precipitation events
Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. The Climate Extremes Index plot for extreme 1-day precipitation events (Figure 1) does indeed show a sharp increase in heavy precipitation events in recent decades, with seven of the top ten years for these events occurring since 1995, and 2010 coming in 5th place in the past 100 years. The increases in heavy precipitation events have primarily come in the spring and summer, when the most damaging floods typically occur. This mirrors the results of Groisman et al. (2004), who found an increase in annual average U.S. precipitation of 7% over the past century, which has led to a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.

Drought and extreme wetness
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increases in drought and flooding are my top two concerns regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world in the coming century. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in a 2008 blog post).


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for drought. The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The good news is that the intensity and areal coverage of U.S. droughts has not increased in recent decades (blue bars in Figure 2). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. like this: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

Other portions of the globe have not not been so fortunate. Globally, Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from ~12 to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El NiƱo-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. According to the Global Drought Monitor, 98 million people world-wide currently live in areas experiencing the highest level of drought (exceptional).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895-2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

A new Nor'easter for New England
A low pressure system currently centered along the Gulf Coast near New Orleans is bringing heavy rain to much of the south. Rains in excess of 3 inches have fallen over central Mississippi, and the rain is expected to change to snow over northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and much of Tennessee late tonight. A swath of 2 - 4" of snow is expected in these regions, with higher amounts in the mountains. The low will move off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning, then northeastward out to sea, potentially bringing heavy snows of 4 - 8" to inland portions of New England and the mid-Atlantic. At this time, it appears that the storm will track far enough from the coast and there will be insufficient cold air in place for snowfall amounts of a foot or more to fall. A nasty mix of rain, sleet, and snow is likely for much of the coast, with the heaviest snows expected to miss New York City, Washington D.C., and Boston (Figure 3.) As the low drags its cold front over Florida this afternoon, a slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists, and Florida could see a few tornadoes.


Figure 3. Probability of more than 8 inches of snow falling, for the 24 hour period ending 7am EST Thursday January 27, 2011. Image credit: National Weather Service HPC.


Jeff Masters

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634. DEKRE
2:49 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
calusakat
Or MacOS w/built in firewall, Firefox and a Plug-in called NoScript.
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
633. calusakat
2:41 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
Morning.

Regarding that discussion about Norton Anti-virus vs Avast?

The answer is...neither.

Best solution?

Linux w/built in firewall, Firefox and a Plug-in called NoScript.

Source? Senior Oracle Database Programmer who works for a global company and has to deal with the internet all the time.

He said...'I realize that there are some things I cannot do as "easily" by never running Windows, but then, I have never had to waste so much money and time dealing with the security issues... I'd rather have the time and money to work on the house.

From what I have read, Windows 7 is finally about as good on its security as Linux was 10 years ago, which is pretty darn good for Windows.'


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632. Neapolitan
2:33 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
631. BobinTampa
1:42 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
Storms weren't too terrible last night. I do appreciate them showing up right at 5:00 though so as to maximize the crappiness of my drive home from work.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
630. Sergej7
12:24 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
Phil Jones - by CRU, the year 2010 was the equal third (see footnote) warmest on record (with 2003), exceeded by 1998 and 2005
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/
Link

Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
629. IKE
12:12 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
High pressure over the northern GOM this weekend.....





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628. IKE
12:11 PM GMT on January 26, 2011

Quoting severstorm:
Morning, All in all the storms were not that bad in my neck of the woods. Had 1.25 of rain and some wind. Heard there was some damage in lake county on the news this morning. A few houses hit by trees.St pete had some damage at a gas station and a car flip over there.
Glad it wasn't that bad. Looks like a nice weekend setting up.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
627. severstorm
12:05 PM GMT on January 26, 2011
Morning, All in all the storms were not that bad in my neck of the woods. Had 1.25 of rain and some wind. Heard there was some damage in lake county on the news this morning. A few houses hit by trees.St pete had some damage at a gas station and a car flip over there.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 976
626. jrweatherman
11:59 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting IKE:
One tornado report from yesterday.....




Considering that every county in Cent FL was under a tornado warning at some point yesterday, the confirmed tornado's and the damage was minimal.
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625. IKE
11:35 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
One tornado report from yesterday.....


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624. islander101010
11:05 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
except for one exceptionally loud boom the passing storms were not all that bad
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
623. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:41 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
18:00 PM FST January 26 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Four (940 hPa) located at 23.4S 176.0E has 10 minute winds of 95 knots and is reported as moving west southwest at 16 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant, 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and 120 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Eye well defined. WILMA continues to intensify with eye warming and convective tops cooling. Outflow good. WILMA steered by southeast deep layer mean regime. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast path. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on OW eye and B surround, eye adjustment of +0.5 yielding DT=6.0, MET=6.0, PT=6.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models move WILMA west southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 23.4S 173.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 25.4S 172.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 28.6S 170.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
622. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:40 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
3:00 PM WST January 26 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 19.4S 118.2E, or 110 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 205 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves quickly west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue to intensify overnight and on Thursday.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected for a period between De Grey and Whim Creek this afternoon, extending to Karratha late this afternoon or this evening and to Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Whim Creek and Mardie later today, moving further west overnight.

If the cyclone moves closer to the coast VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be experienced at Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday morning.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between De Grey and Mardie during this afternoon, extending further west overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.

Residents of Pilbara coastal communities west of Whim Creek, including Wickham, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from De Grey to Coral Bay.

The Cyclone WARNING from Wallal to De Grey has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.3S 115.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.2S 113.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.6S 108.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 29.4S 106.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================

1.1 banding on recent VIS imagery gives 4.0 DT. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend, PAT 4.0. FT is set to 4.0 within constraints and hence CI is 4.0. SATCON at 23Z indicated 60 knots 1-min wind, with ADT at 48 knots and CIMSS AMSU at 64 knots. 1-min winds at Bedout Island have reached a maximum of 54 knots [0405Z] as the system centre passed close by. Bedout is on the southern side and appears to have gone through the eyewall so will have likely experienced close to the maximum winds at that time. Final intensity estimate is set at 55 knots 10-min wind with relatively high confidence given the lower bounds provided by the offshore obs and the subjective assessment of the radar and microwave imagery in agreement with Dvorak estimates.

Radar shows inner eye wall radius of around 20-25nm with recent evidence that an intense Cb has generated an asymmetry in the NW of the eyewall. Shear has increased slightly [8.1m/s at 06Z] but is expected to increase only marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is forecast. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in beneath the mid level trough.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 9:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
621. CyclonicVoyage
5:59 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


next system at end of run may be trouble western gulf coast eastward


Approaching peak severe time in the SE. one would think La Nina put the Kaboshes on that but, not this year apparently.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
620. Skyepony (Mod)
5:42 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
FL lightning summary

Lightning/2000 v5.3.1 Summary (Tuesday, January 25, 2011 at 11:59:46 PM EST)

Since midnight (1439.8 mins.):
Total strokes: 62,705 (avg. 43.6/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 33,616 - 53.6% (avg. 23.3/min.)
IC: 22,057 - 65.6% (avg. 15.3/min.)
-IC: 11,559 - 34.4% (avg. 8.0/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 28,793 - 45.9% (avg. 20.0/min.)
CG: 5727 - 19.9% (avg. 4.0/min.)
-CG: 23,066 - 80.1% (avg. 16.0/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 216 - 0.3% (avg. 0.2/min.)

Total flashes: 37,371 (avg. 26.0/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 18,895 (avg. 13.1/min.)
CG flashes: 4532 (avg. 3.1/min.)
-CG flashes: 14,363 (avg. 10.0/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 18,260 (avg. 12.7/min.)
IC flashes: 11,681 (avg. 8.1/min.)
-IC flashes: 6579 (avg. 4.6/min.)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
619. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:32 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
storm is really dieing out, doubt 0.3 inches of rain will end a drought


yeah that it did
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
618. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
5:22 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
storm is really dieing out, doubt 0.3 inches of rain will end a drought
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 477
617. Skyepony (Mod)
5:16 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Wilma Bombed..
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 922.1mb/119.8kt


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
616. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:02 AM GMT on January 26, 2011


next system at end of run may be trouble western gulf coast eastward
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
615. Jedkins01
4:59 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Thank God weather is the subject for once instead of ridiculous Global Warming fights!

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
614. Jedkins01
4:58 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




CAPE isn't all that high right now (It could be, but its not for me since I live in Tx and CAPE values of 2000+ usually occur), but it will likely keep the thunderstorms around Severe limits for the next couple of hours.



lol dude that's cause its January, in Florida CAPE between 3000 and 5000 are pretty common during the wet season across central and southern Florida
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:56 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Hmmm, that avatar looks familiar...
its from a friend that no longer haunts the blog i believe it was refer too as a weather dragon i figured if he wont show up cannot say the dragon can not be here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:41 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
611. billsfaninsofla
4:35 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
That area is a magnet for bad stuff in South Florida.
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610. Zipstar
4:25 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
This could be worse than Y2K.

:(
Member Since: December 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
609. MiamiHurricanes09
4:21 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1145 PM EST

* AT 1057 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST RANCHES TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PENNSUCO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
MIRAMAR...
DORAL...
CAROL CITY...
HOLLYWOOD...

AVENTURA...
EL PORTAL...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
608. Skyepony (Mod)
4:17 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
News is showing some homes in Groveland (Lake County) that were destroyed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
607. Ossqss
4:10 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




CAPE isn't all that high right now (It could be, but its not for me since I live in Tx and CAPE values of 2000 usually occur), but it will likely keep the thunderstorms around Severe limits for the next couple of hours.


Thanks, we are certainly getting some much needed rain. Let's hope we have had minimal trouble from this as it moved through the state. L8R

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
606. 1900hurricane
4:09 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Hmmm, that avatar looks familiar...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:47 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
604. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:47 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting Ossqss:


Was there not a higher CAPE value pocket(shown earlier) to the W-SW or SW of the tip of Florida? How would that impact this line once tapped?




CAPE isn't all that high right now (It could be, but its not for me since I live in Tx and CAPE values of 2000+ usually occur), but it will likely keep the thunderstorms around Severe limits for the next couple of hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
603. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
3:44 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
lets see if this rain here in S florida can put a dent on the drought conditions, need 2.3 inches of rain here in wpb to meet the average for the month.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 477
602. Ossqss
3:39 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Defined couplet on radar approaching Western Broward suburbs.




Was there not a higher CAPE value pocket(shown earlier) to the W-SW or SW of the tip of Florida? How would that impact this line once tapped?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
600. cchsweatherman
3:33 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Defined couplet on radar approaching Western Broward suburbs.


Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
599. washingtonian115
3:31 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


weakening flag on
But that's still a nasty looking squall line.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
598. Jedkins01
3:27 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
the line hasn't completely run out of severe gas just yet...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
597. Ossqss
3:27 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Great gif! Watching the rapid low cloud inflow earlier as this thing passed over was quite impressive. Interesting to see the same influence on the back side. N-S nearly. Looks like a sideways tornado in its own right, across the state. It will be interesting to see how the influence of inflow over water, from nearly 3 sides, will impact it as it exits Florida.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
596. Jedkins01
3:27 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-099-260400-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0001.110126T0323Z-110126T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1023 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1100 PM EST

* AT 1019 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF WELLINGTON TO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PARKLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
GOLDEN LAKES...
HAVERHILL...
GREENACRES CITY...
MISSION BAY...
LAKE WORTH...
COCONUT CREEK...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2655 8003 2655 8004 2645 8005 2638 8007
2629 8007 2622 8009 2631 8044 2670 8027
2669 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 282DEG 22KT 2661 8022 2636 8035

$$

BAXTER
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
595. washingtonian115
3:24 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
I had just finished asking the president a qustion.But since this is a weather blog..anywho our local meteorologist Doug Kammerer said the 4-8" line could push futher south in the D.C area if the storm tracks further east.Do I count on it?.Defentially not.Also one time on the nbcwashington website it said "local residents are furious! about getting no snow".So you see I'm not the only crazy washingtonian all strung,and crazed out over snow!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
594. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:20 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
593. cchsweatherman
3:14 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah but they aren't as strong as they were earlier, the line is being mainly fueled by warm and very moist air at this point, rather than the upper support to provide widespread severe warnings.

A couple more warnings may still be issued though. Whatever the case, the line still needs to be watched carefully.


These storms are stronger than when they hit the West Coast.

Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
592. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:13 AM GMT on January 26, 2011


weakening flag on
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
591. BenBIogger
3:13 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Evening folks!

Weak squall (compared to earlier today) line moving through south Florida tonight.

Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
590. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:10 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
almost all DBZ's are in the low 40's now with one isolated area of 50's
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
589. Jedkins01
3:09 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Reflectivity, storm tops, and lighting count has lessened. Not to mention the warnings were all canceled. This line is still quite strong though, but the severe threat has diminished some I believe. I expect my forecast of that to hold into the night. But that doesn't mean down burst winds and maybe a tornado can't be ruled out.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
588. Jedkins01
3:06 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'd have to disagree especially with multiple TV signatures developing in the past hour.


Yeah but they aren't as strong as they were earlier, the line is being mainly fueled by warm and very moist air at this point, rather than the upper support to provide widespread severe warnings.

A couple more warnings may still be issued though. Whatever the case, the line still needs to be watched carefully.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
587. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:04 AM GMT on January 26, 2011


weakening flag flag
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
586. caneswatch
3:03 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
This is going to be a long night for South Florida. The line is fast approaching Royal Palm Beach.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:02 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
584. cchsweatherman
3:02 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like the line is beginning to weaken as a result of upper energy and low level jet lifting out to the northeast.

However, not to downplay the squall line, its still a line of strong storms, however it has lost punch obviously compared to earlier, when at one point up to 7 active tornado warnings at one time were present and even more severe thunderstorms warnings on top of that. Now all warnings have ended.


I'd have to disagree especially with multiple TV signatures developing in the past hour.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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