U.S. heavy precipitation events are increasing, but drought is not

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2011

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Yesterday, I introduced the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, which uses temperature and precipitation records to see if the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. Today, I'll focus on how the drought and precipitation extremes that go into the Climate Extremes Index have changed over the past century. The three precipitation-related factors to go into the Climate Extremes Index are:

1) The sum of: (a) the monthly percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) the percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

2) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.

Items 1 and 3 have shown no change in annual average value over the past century, but there has been a marked increase in the number of heavy 1-day precipitation events in recent decades. Thus, the record and near-record values of the Climate Extremes Index in recent years have been due to a combination of the increase in heavy 1-day precipitation events and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for heavy 1-day precipitation events shows that these events, on average, have affected 10% of the U.S. over the past century (black line). However, heavy precipitation events have increased in recent decades. The seven most extreme years since 1910 have all occurred since 1995, with 2010 ranking as the 5th most extreme year in the past 100 years. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Heavy precipitation events
Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. The Climate Extremes Index plot for extreme 1-day precipitation events (Figure 1) does indeed show a sharp increase in heavy precipitation events in recent decades, with seven of the top ten years for these events occurring since 1995, and 2010 coming in 5th place in the past 100 years. The increases in heavy precipitation events have primarily come in the spring and summer, when the most damaging floods typically occur. This mirrors the results of Groisman et al. (2004), who found an increase in annual average U.S. precipitation of 7% over the past century, which has led to a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.

Drought and extreme wetness
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increases in drought and flooding are my top two concerns regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world in the coming century. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in a 2008 blog post).


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for drought. The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The good news is that the intensity and areal coverage of U.S. droughts has not increased in recent decades (blue bars in Figure 2). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. like this: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

Other portions of the globe have not not been so fortunate. Globally, Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from ~12 to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. According to the Global Drought Monitor, 98 million people world-wide currently live in areas experiencing the highest level of drought (exceptional).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895-2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

A new Nor'easter for New England
A low pressure system currently centered along the Gulf Coast near New Orleans is bringing heavy rain to much of the south. Rains in excess of 3 inches have fallen over central Mississippi, and the rain is expected to change to snow over northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and much of Tennessee late tonight. A swath of 2 - 4" of snow is expected in these regions, with higher amounts in the mountains. The low will move off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning, then northeastward out to sea, potentially bringing heavy snows of 4 - 8" to inland portions of New England and the mid-Atlantic. At this time, it appears that the storm will track far enough from the coast and there will be insufficient cold air in place for snowfall amounts of a foot or more to fall. A nasty mix of rain, sleet, and snow is likely for much of the coast, with the heaviest snows expected to miss New York City, Washington D.C., and Boston (Figure 3.) As the low drags its cold front over Florida this afternoon, a slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists, and Florida could see a few tornadoes.


Figure 3. Probability of more than 8 inches of snow falling, for the 24 hour period ending 7am EST Thursday January 27, 2011. Image credit: National Weather Service HPC.


Jeff Masters

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333. EYEStoSEA
9:38 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
From my experience, before a tornado hits, its gets still and hail comes..the tornado is usually wrapped in the rain following the hail
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
332. Ossqss
9:37 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
It is gonna be ugly at the mouth and up in Tampa Bay. Right at rush hour too :(

Time to hit the road >>> L8R

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
331. islander101010
9:35 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
those little cells springing up in cent fl. could be trouble good luck everyone
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4333
330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
329. RitaEvac
9:35 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Northern portion of line is still bowing
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
328. Jedkins01
9:33 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Quoting reedzone:
This is a "Moderate Risk" type severe weather outbreak, a Moderate Risk should have been issued this morning.


For sure its a Moderate Risk situation! I had a feeling it would be like this, but I tried to hope it would just be strong storms, not so much severe...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7281
327. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:32 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
...CENTRAL/N FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE

CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE

APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LEAD BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN

THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST N OF

TAMPA BAY AROUND 2030Z. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE

WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID

60S...AND MLCAPE HAS LIKEWISE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. THE

DESTABILIZATION AND A CONCURRENT GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR

WILL MAINTAIN THE ERN GULF SQUALL LINE ACROSS N/CENTRAL FL THIS

AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM

DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED

CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ALREADY OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND FAVORABLE TIMING

WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WILL INTRODUCE 30% DAMAGING WIND

PROBABILITIES IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS N/CENTRAL FL.



LOCAL VWP/S ALREADY SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS

WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 250 M2/S2 ACROSS CENTRAL

AND N FL. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER

THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT

POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPARENT MCV MOVING ENEWD OVER THE

FL BIG BEND. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH EMBEDDED

SUPERCELLS AND QLCS MESOVORTICES WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A

COUPLE OF TORNADOES.



THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK SCENARIO FROM 1630Z APPEARS ON TRACK

WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY.



..THOMPSON.. 01/25/2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
326. RitaEvac
9:31 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
325. RitaEvac
9:30 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Wonder if there is actual tornado on the ground for those cells
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
323. hcubed
9:30 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Y'all might want to take a look at the WunderMap.

With that Google map as a base, and the "cones of danger", it shows those areas that might want to take cover. The radars are good, but that map detail helps.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
322. reedzone
9:29 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
This is a "Moderate Risk" type severe weather outbreak, a Moderate Risk should have been issued this morning.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:26 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:25 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
SPC and NWS offices got caught with their pants down
thats not important now just keep the info flying out for those in the path
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
319. Patrap
9:25 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
317. reedzone
9:24 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
So impressive, multiple tornado warnings and the line is strengthening as it heads eastward towards me!!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
316. RitaEvac
9:23 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
A5 and R1 cells tornadic
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:23 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
314. Jax82
9:22 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry Jax.. I jinxed it... Tornado warnings now up for Duval and St. John Counties..


Ya sure did :) I'm just a few miles East of the St Johns river.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
313. charlottefl
9:22 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
312. Patrap
9:22 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Hang on,,they moving along about 33 mph to the Neast,,

Stay Safe
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
311. RitaEvac
9:21 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Winds going calm means those winds are being sucked upward into the storms, batten the hatches
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
310. Patrap
9:21 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.



TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 415 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 410 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 400 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 355 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 337 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
309. Jedkins01
9:21 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Slight chance of severe storms? Give me a break, lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7281
308. Jax82
9:20 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI — Map of All US Radar Sites



Yeah i'm right in the middle of that storm, lol
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
307. Patrap
9:19 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI — Map of All US Radar Sites

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
306. FLWaterFront
9:19 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
The line is now bearing down on me in New Port Richey.

Sky just got almost as dark as night. Thunder rumbling w/ estimated distance of about 5-7 WSW.

Winds were almost howling up until now but just went almost calm. Lights just flickered a few times.

(Not good)
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
305. RitaEvac
9:19 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
SPC and NWS offices got caught with their pants down
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
304. CybrTeddy
9:19 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:
Tornado warnings just got expanded all the way down to Pasco county, these are VERY nasty!

I'm very concerned at how large and violent the cells to the southwest of Pinellas County look...


Wouldn't be a shock if Hillsborough and Pinellas are both under tornado warnings soon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23572
303. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:18 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
302. Patrap
9:18 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
301. RitaEvac
9:17 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
2 tornados coming

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
640
WFUS52 KJAX 252115
TORJAX
FLC001-083-252145-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0002.110125T2115Z-110125T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
415 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

* AT 415 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OCALA
AIRPORT...OCALA...ANTHONY...SPARR...FORT MCCOY AND CITRA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2949 8207 2929 8180 2902 8236 2914 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 226DEG 33KT 2912 8233



ENYEDI


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Gotta wall of water heading for Tampa,
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Sorry Jax.. I jinxed it... Tornado warnings now up for Duval and St. John Counties..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
This is some freaky stuff here guys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon everyone. Left Tampa this morning. In Port Charlotte right at the moment. That line definitely looks nasty. Dew points here are running in the upper 60's.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
hellava line coming ashore now
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting RitaEvac:
Merging storms over the gulf look to possibly take place right over Tampa



Yeah I'm worried about those merging cells to my southwest, not only will it possibly merge into an even more intense line, but that can lead to tornadic development.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7281

583
WFUS52 KJAX 252110
TORJAX
FLC019-031-109-252200-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0001.110125T2110Z-110125T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 500 PM EST

* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
NEAR ORANGE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MANDARIN...SAN MARCO...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...UNF...ARLINGTON...
SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE BEACH...FORT CAROLINE...MAYPORT...TALBOT ISLAND
AND LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLZ023-025-030>033-036-037-252130-
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION-
353 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
ALACHUA...BRADFORD...NORTHEASTERN UNION...CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN
BAKER...NORTHERN PUTNAM...WESTERN ST. JOHNS AND SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 430 PM EST...

AT 354 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ELLERBEE TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORANGE HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WALDO...SANDERSON...SAMPSON...RAIFORD...ORANGE HEIGHTS...HAMPTON...
ELLERBEE...STARKE...MELROSE AND KEYSTONE HEIGHTS THROUGH 430 PM EST.
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA

I live in Melrose.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Merging storms over the gulf look to possibly take place right over Tampa
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Damage ongoing somewhere according to radar
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 400 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 355 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 337 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting RitaEvac:
Someone take pictures right before the squall line comes in


I live in Pinellas County, I plan on taking pictures!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7281

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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