U.S. heavy precipitation events are increasing, but drought is not

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2011

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Yesterday, I introduced the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, which uses temperature and precipitation records to see if the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. Today, I'll focus on how the drought and precipitation extremes that go into the Climate Extremes Index have changed over the past century. The three precipitation-related factors to go into the Climate Extremes Index are:

1) The sum of: (a) the monthly percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) the percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

2) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.

Items 1 and 3 have shown no change in annual average value over the past century, but there has been a marked increase in the number of heavy 1-day precipitation events in recent decades. Thus, the record and near-record values of the Climate Extremes Index in recent years have been due to a combination of the increase in heavy 1-day precipitation events and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for heavy 1-day precipitation events shows that these events, on average, have affected 10% of the U.S. over the past century (black line). However, heavy precipitation events have increased in recent decades. The seven most extreme years since 1910 have all occurred since 1995, with 2010 ranking as the 5th most extreme year in the past 100 years. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Heavy precipitation events
Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. The Climate Extremes Index plot for extreme 1-day precipitation events (Figure 1) does indeed show a sharp increase in heavy precipitation events in recent decades, with seven of the top ten years for these events occurring since 1995, and 2010 coming in 5th place in the past 100 years. The increases in heavy precipitation events have primarily come in the spring and summer, when the most damaging floods typically occur. This mirrors the results of Groisman et al. (2004), who found an increase in annual average U.S. precipitation of 7% over the past century, which has led to a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.

Drought and extreme wetness
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increases in drought and flooding are my top two concerns regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world in the coming century. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in a 2008 blog post).


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for drought. The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The good news is that the intensity and areal coverage of U.S. droughts has not increased in recent decades (blue bars in Figure 2). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. like this: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

Other portions of the globe have not not been so fortunate. Globally, Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from ~12 to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. According to the Global Drought Monitor, 98 million people world-wide currently live in areas experiencing the highest level of drought (exceptional).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895-2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

A new Nor'easter for New England
A low pressure system currently centered along the Gulf Coast near New Orleans is bringing heavy rain to much of the south. Rains in excess of 3 inches have fallen over central Mississippi, and the rain is expected to change to snow over northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and much of Tennessee late tonight. A swath of 2 - 4" of snow is expected in these regions, with higher amounts in the mountains. The low will move off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning, then northeastward out to sea, potentially bringing heavy snows of 4 - 8" to inland portions of New England and the mid-Atlantic. At this time, it appears that the storm will track far enough from the coast and there will be insufficient cold air in place for snowfall amounts of a foot or more to fall. A nasty mix of rain, sleet, and snow is likely for much of the coast, with the heaviest snows expected to miss New York City, Washington D.C., and Boston (Figure 3.) As the low drags its cold front over Florida this afternoon, a slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists, and Florida could see a few tornadoes.


Figure 3. Probability of more than 8 inches of snow falling, for the 24 hour period ending 7am EST Thursday January 27, 2011. Image credit: National Weather Service HPC.


Jeff Masters

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484. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like one paralleled I-4 from Orlando to Deltona. The storm that hit Oviedo has about made it to Oak Hill.

Just heard the 1st of the thunder.
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Anyone noticing a second surface low attempting to form in the Central Gulf with the new southern extension of the squall line down to the Yucatan?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
1 hr rate rainfall




rainfall rate is way underestimated on radar, my rain gauge recorded an inch in about 8 minutes, which is a rain rate of about 7 inches per hour in the core of the cell, but it didn't last long.

This line blows by in about 5 to 10 minutes but that's long enough to dump an inch, because this line has blinding rain.
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We now have 2 TVS signatures... both heading my way.
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Note the Hourly projections on the TVS,,90degrees


Severe Right Movers on the Ground apparently
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L Page
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 715 PM EST

* AT 632 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ENGLEWOOD.
WARM MINERAL SPRINGS.
NORTH PORT.
PORT CHARLOTTE.
PUNTA GORDA.
CLEVELAND.


Alright folks, thinking about moving to an interior room now. I'm in Port Charlotte.
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That cell that came in just south of Sarasota looked like fun...
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32 Doppler Radar Detected Storms
ID Max Top VIL Severe Hail Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
0 [Tornado Vortex Signature] V3 61 dBZ 19,000 ft. 29 kg/m² 0% chance 40% chance <0.50 in. 43 knots W (265)
0 [Tornado Vortex Signature] K6 58 dBZ 14,000 ft. 13 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 21 knots WSW (243)

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That one TVS is gonna move right over top of us here in about 20 mins.
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GOM IR Loop

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We just barely escaped the squall line here in Palm Coast, folks in Bunnell and Flagler Beach got the worst of it.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 627 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MYAKKA CITY...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATED A TORNADO 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF MYAKKA HEAD AND 4 MILES SOUTH OF HIDDEN
RIVER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MYAKKA CITY.
LILY.
ONA.
ARCADIA.
ZOLFO SPRINGS.
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273
WFUS52 KTBW 252330
TORTBW
FLC027-049-081-115-260000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0010.110125T2330Z-110126T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
630 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 627 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MYAKKA CITY...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATED A TORNADO 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF MYAKKA HEAD AND 4 MILES SOUTH OF HIDDEN
RIVER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MYAKKA CITY.
LILY.
ONA.
ARCADIA.
ZOLFO SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2757 8166 2706 8168 2706 8235 2758 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 276DEG 32KT 2738 8210




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The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page
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TVS Signatures in Sarasota and Costal Charlotte County. 4 of them last radar image.
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465. flsky
Lights are flickering.
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Triple Trouble TVS sig's...

..edit. 4 TVS Sigs.

Seek Shelter Immediately if in these Storms Path.


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line mainly confined to the 40 to 45 DBZ range 55 or greater needed for severe with 70 or more for extreme some 55 DBZ readings nw of space centre along ne sector of front

rain strong winds main threat
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WFUS52 KMLB 252321
TORMLB
FLC009-095-117-127-260015-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0006.110125T2321Z-110126T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
621 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...MIMS...HAULOVER
CANAL
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
CONWAY...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO...AZALEA PARK...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
LAKE JESSUP...GOLDENROD...GENEVA...
EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...SPORT
ORANGE...PONCE INLET...OSTEEN...ORMOND BEACH...MAYTOWN...LAKE
MONROE...LAKE HELEN...HOLLY HILL...EDGEWATER...DELTONA...DAYTONA
BEACH...

* UNTIL 715 PM EST.

* AT 619 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES FROM
JUST WEST OF PORT ORANGE TO SANFORD TO NEAR LAKE MARY. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ORMOND BY THE SEA...KLONDIKE BEACH...ELDORA...BETHUNE BEACH...
WILBUR BY THE SEA...MIDWAY...DAYTONA BEACH INTL SPEEDWAY...DAYTONA
INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY AND APOLLO BEACH

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AT ANY TIME.
PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD ACT NOW IN ORDER TO PROTECT
THEMSELVES. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE TORNADO TO DEVELOP BEFORE
ACTING...YOU MAY NOT SEE OR HEAR ITS APPROACH. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF
GUARD!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO SEE. BE SMART AND REACT NOW!



LAT...LON 2915 8096 2854 8056 2853 8058 2858 8061
2853 8062 2850 8073 2860 8073 2859 8076
2864 8079 2869 8079 2871 8075 2879 8084
2849 8077 2834 8139 2927 8119 2927 8115
2942 8116 2943 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 180DEG 0KT 2872 8091



15


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460. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like a tornado is hitting Oviedo.
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459. IKE

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Rotating cell getting ready to move onshore in southern sarasota county near VENICE/NORT PORT
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456. flsky
Don't forget to unplug your computers if you have lightning.
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Cells moving NE of Orlando gonna merge with main line. Big ones getting ready form as they collide
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Winds at 18k feet overplotting on surface obs (the barbs with a circle attached):



Some shear present.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 630 PM EST

* AT 555 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL TORNADOS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUETTE.
FORT GREEN.
FORT LONESOME.
LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK.
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689
WFUS52 KMLB 252308
TORMLB
FLC093-097-260000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0005.110125T2308Z-110126T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
608 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...YEEHAW JUNCTION...LAKE MARIAN...
KENANSVILLE...

* UNTIL 700 PM EST.

* AT 605 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO SEE. BE SMART AND REACT NOW!



LAT...LON 2754 8121 2757 8119 2758 8116 2764 8114
2772 8116 2773 8118 2778 8119 2804 8087
2773 8088 2773 8087 2761 8086 2748 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 230DEG 29KT 2756 8128




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The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 630 PM EST

* AT 559 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR SIESTA KEY...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF SARASOTA...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIESTA KEY.
VAMO.
BEE RIDGE.
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK.
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448. flsky
Lots of lightning now...
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Cool how the radar dims weak and then comes back

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
VERY intense rain and wind in Sarasota.
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32 Doppler Radar Detected Storms
ID Max Top VIL Severe Hail Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
1 [Mesocyclone] X7 60 dBZ 26,000 ft. 16 kg/m 30% chance 70% chance 0.75 in. 39 knots SW (233)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Even though I recognize that Northern and Central Florida currently are getting some incredibly nasty weather, South Floridians should be on alert and prepared overnight. Current satellite imagery over the Gulf of Mexico shows the impressive squall line forming a new intense southern extension near the Yucatan Channel and continuing to build.
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Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements. TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 601 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 600 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 558 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 555 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 549 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 545 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 543 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 530 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 528 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 509 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 500 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 445 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 439 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 436 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 432 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 430 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 428 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 415 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 410 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 400 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 355 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 337 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Also, the closer you are to a radar site, the lower into the storm you see. Just cause of how radars are angled. If your close to the radar you see the bottom of a storm, if you're far away you're seeing the upper portion of a storm.
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183
WFUS52 KTBW 252301
TORTBW
FLC049-057-081-105-252330-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0009.110125T2301Z-110125T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
601 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 630 PM EST

* AT 555 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL TORNADOS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUETTE.
FORT GREEN.
FORT LONESOME.
LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2773 8220 2774 8206 2769 8206 2769 8184
2738 8206 2739 8252 2764 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 262DEG 27KT 2756 8228




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The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting atmoaggie:
? Yeah, if they're better than 35 years old. Mostly plastic, otherwise. (Unless it's a special)


Try a magnet on them, you will be surprised what is under the coatings. I just put a Kohler in a few years ago, and it was a beast to move :)

L8R, getting hit hard here south of Tampa
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Hail and wind


Thanks!! Honestly, I'd never seen skies so green before. This happened as I was coming home, and the squall line was coming in... East Pasco, around 4:45pm.
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Rotation just off the coast to my west next couple of hours should be interesting.
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Check out the dimming and it all comes back



You can see how the radar colors dim as if weakening as it goes over the Dopplar site and now it's starting to brighten back up to more intense storms as that torrential rain moves outta the way of the site
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
You can see how the radar colors dim as if weakening as it goes over the Dopplar site and now it's starting to brighten back up to more intense storms as that torrential rain moves outta the way of the site
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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