U.S. heavy precipitation events are increasing, but drought is not

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2011

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Yesterday, I introduced the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, which uses temperature and precipitation records to see if the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. Today, I'll focus on how the drought and precipitation extremes that go into the Climate Extremes Index have changed over the past century. The three precipitation-related factors to go into the Climate Extremes Index are:

1) The sum of: (a) the monthly percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) the percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

2) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.

Items 1 and 3 have shown no change in annual average value over the past century, but there has been a marked increase in the number of heavy 1-day precipitation events in recent decades. Thus, the record and near-record values of the Climate Extremes Index in recent years have been due to a combination of the increase in heavy 1-day precipitation events and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for heavy 1-day precipitation events shows that these events, on average, have affected 10% of the U.S. over the past century (black line). However, heavy precipitation events have increased in recent decades. The seven most extreme years since 1910 have all occurred since 1995, with 2010 ranking as the 5th most extreme year in the past 100 years. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Heavy precipitation events
Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. The Climate Extremes Index plot for extreme 1-day precipitation events (Figure 1) does indeed show a sharp increase in heavy precipitation events in recent decades, with seven of the top ten years for these events occurring since 1995, and 2010 coming in 5th place in the past 100 years. The increases in heavy precipitation events have primarily come in the spring and summer, when the most damaging floods typically occur. This mirrors the results of Groisman et al. (2004), who found an increase in annual average U.S. precipitation of 7% over the past century, which has led to a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.

Drought and extreme wetness
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increases in drought and flooding are my top two concerns regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world in the coming century. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in a 2008 blog post).


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for drought. The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The good news is that the intensity and areal coverage of U.S. droughts has not increased in recent decades (blue bars in Figure 2). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. like this: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

Other portions of the globe have not not been so fortunate. Globally, Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from ~12 to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. According to the Global Drought Monitor, 98 million people world-wide currently live in areas experiencing the highest level of drought (exceptional).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895-2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

A new Nor'easter for New England
A low pressure system currently centered along the Gulf Coast near New Orleans is bringing heavy rain to much of the south. Rains in excess of 3 inches have fallen over central Mississippi, and the rain is expected to change to snow over northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and much of Tennessee late tonight. A swath of 2 - 4" of snow is expected in these regions, with higher amounts in the mountains. The low will move off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning, then northeastward out to sea, potentially bringing heavy snows of 4 - 8" to inland portions of New England and the mid-Atlantic. At this time, it appears that the storm will track far enough from the coast and there will be insufficient cold air in place for snowfall amounts of a foot or more to fall. A nasty mix of rain, sleet, and snow is likely for much of the coast, with the heaviest snows expected to miss New York City, Washington D.C., and Boston (Figure 3.) As the low drags its cold front over Florida this afternoon, a slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists, and Florida could see a few tornadoes.


Figure 3. Probability of more than 8 inches of snow falling, for the 24 hour period ending 7am EST Thursday January 27, 2011. Image credit: National Weather Service HPC.


Jeff Masters

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The 8PM Miami observation soundings have now come in and they are incredibly impressive. All severe weather indices are much higher than at 2PM.


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Quoting Grothar:
The sky is really beginning to get dark at my place. Wonder what that means?


It should clear up in the morning.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 800 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LINE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 05Z.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
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Quoting Grothar:
The sky is really beginning to get dark at my place. Wonder what that means?
Night?
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Tornado Watch 8, S FLA until midnight
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Quoting Grothar:


You really want this???

Snow lover for life!!!.
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Tornado Watch for Palm Beach County.
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The sky is really beginning to get dark at my place. Wonder what that means?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Whew it's a good thing none to probally some of you only saw my rage yesterday when I was trashing Hypeuwea..Opps I mean accuweather.com.Anyway oh look what's this!?.My city is mentioned in the blog.But wait!!? what does it say?(some of the heaviest snows should miss D.C).Now that I'am not to happy about.Some one post the snow pictures please.


You really want this???

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Whew it's a good thing none to probally some of you only saw my rage yesterday when I was trashing Hypeuwea..Opps I mean accuweather.com.Anyway oh look what's this!?.My city is mentioned in the blog.But wait!!? what does it say?(some of the heaviest snows should miss D.C).Now that I'am not to happy about.Some one post the snow pictures please.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


seems like the top part is separating and weakening and the bottom is strengthening
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011


...SE FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL/NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS SE FL BY 26/12Z. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER... ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PASSAGE OF
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WELL TO THE N SUGGEST THAT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


right now this is a "See text" only, but may change with the new Day 1 outlook, due out in about a half hour.



More than likely will. Key phrase in bold below.

QLCS/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS CNTRL/SW
FL...WELL-AHEAD OF MESOSCALE MODEL TIMING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE HOW FAR S THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Satellite shows some low-level rotation there, plus the CIMSS 850mb vorticity maps shows increasing vorticity there as of the 0z map:



Been watching it develop since 3PM this afternoon. Although the pressures don't verify it yet, something must be the catalyst for the new, more intense southern squall line extending to the Yucatan.
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Florida is under there somewhere

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Quoting cchsweatherman:
The Storm Prediction Center needs to expand the Tornado Watch to include South Florida. Satellite imagery shows a new, more intense squall line forming from the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving towards South Florida with defined supercells within the line.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011


...SE FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL/NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS SE FL BY 26/12Z. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER... ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PASSAGE OF
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WELL TO THE N SUGGEST THAT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


right now this is a "See text" only, but may change with the new Day 1 outlook, due out in about a half hour.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Anyone noticing a second surface low attempting to form in the Central Gulf with the new southern extension of the squall line down to the Yucatan?
Yup. Satellite shows some low-level rotation there, plus the CIMSS 850mb vorticity maps shows increasing vorticity there as of the 0z map:

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276
WFUS52 KMLB 260022
TORMLB
FLC009-061-097-260115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0008.110126T0022Z-110126T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
722 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT CANAVERAL...MERRITT ISLAND...
CAPE CANAVERAL...SATELLITE BEACH...ROCKLEDGE...PATRICK AIRFORCE
BASE...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIALANTIC...GRANT...COCOA
BEACH...CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...BAREFOOT BAY...

EXTREME NORTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN INLET...ROSELAND...

EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE MARIAN...KENANSVILLE...

* UNTIL 815 PM EST.

* AT 715 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM COCOA BEACH TO VIERA TO CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP
TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF KENANSVILLE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER STORM CELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO AND
STRONG DAMAGAING WIND GUSTS WAS APPROACHING PALM BAY AND MALABAR
FORM THE SOUTHWEST.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SUNTREE...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...WEST MELBOURNE...MELBOURNE
BEACH...MICCO AND SEBASTIAN INLET RECREATION.

PEOPLE IN THE MENTIONED AREAS SHOULD WATCH AND LISTEN FOR THE
APPROACH OF THIS TORNADO OR OTHER TORNADOES AND BE READY TO TAKE
ACTION.

IF A TORNADO PASSES BY YOUR AREA...PLEASE INFORM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE SO THAT WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE UPDATED. YOUR REPORT COULD
SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 2794 8052 2783 8047 2780 8121 2784 8124
2812 8084 2822 8082 2837 8074 2834 8071
2843 8070 2844 8066 2827 8066 2823 8063
2842 8063 2845 8053 2840 8059 2820 8059
2808 8056 2782 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 261DEG 32KT 2833 8058 2823 8072
2814 8074 2797 8091




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The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page
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We're in the tornado warning until 7:45pm! Batten down the hatches!
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yes line dev out over gulf heading east towards se fla
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Mesoscale Discussion 45

< Previous MD
MD 45 graphic


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 260020Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

QLCS/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS CNTRL/SW
FL...WELL-AHEAD OF MESOSCALE MODEL TIMING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE HOW FAR S THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE.


HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
FROM AREAS NW-N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE VERO BEACH-MELBOURNE
REGION THROUGH 01Z. HERE...CORE OF SSWLY LLJ OF 40-50 KTS
EXISTS...YIELDING STRONGLY VEERING 0-1KM PROFILES WITH SRH OF
350-400 M2/S2 BASED OFF THE MLB VWP.

STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NE AWAY FROM FL BY
LATE EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM WAVE ACCELERATES ENE. AIR MASS ACROSS
S FL WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...AND WITH AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE S
OF THE CURRENT WATCH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME WITH AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF H85-H7
FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY AT LEAST POSE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS S FL.

..RACY.. 01/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
The Storm Prediction Center needs to expand the Tornado Watch to include South Florida. Satellite imagery shows a new, more intense squall line forming from the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving towards South Florida with defined supercells within the line.

They will cchs.They will
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The Storm Prediction Center needs to expand the Tornado Watch to include South Florida. Satellite imagery shows a new, more intense squall line forming from the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving towards South Florida with defined supercells within the line.
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945

NWUS22 KWNS 260006

STAHRY



SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST TUE JAN 25 2011 THRU 18CST MON JAN 24 2011



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....



1 *TORN 4 WNW MYAKKA HEAD FL (25 ENE SRQ) 25/1715

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAYTBW/LSR 2750 8214

64 AND WINGATE ROAD. N





.......LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS.............LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS......



3 WNDG SPRING HILL FL (35 NNE PIE) 25/1545

DAMAGE REPORTED TO TWO WINDOWS AND GARAGE DOOR.TBW/LSR 2844 8256

EXACT LOCATION NOT KNO

6 G 65 2 N SAINT PETERSBURG FL (8 S PIE) 25/1610

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 75 MPH. BRANCHES TBW/LSR 2779 8267

BREAKING OFF TREES.

7 G 52 4 SSE TAMPA FL (13 E PIE) 25/1624

60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED. TBW/LSR 2791 8245

4 WNDG 2 NNW SAINT PETERSBURG FL (9 S PIE) 25/1635

OF 38TH AVE N AND 24TH

8 G 55 SANFORD FL (16 N ORL) 25/1714

SANFORD/ORLANDO AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND MLB/LSR 2879 8128

27055/2314

9 G 52 PORT ORANGE FL (3 SSE DAB) 25/1731

MLB/LSR 2912 8103





.........OTHER SEVERE REPORTS..................OTHER SEVERE REPORTS.........



2 A100 6 W BROOKSVILLE FL (44 NNE PIE) 25/1540

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED TBW/LSR 2855 8249

5 G 50 2 NNE MASARYKTOWN FL (40 NNE PIE) 25/1544

50 KNOT WIND GUST REPORTED AT BROOKSVILLE TBW/LSR 2847 8245

HERNANDO COUNTY AIRPOR
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066
WFUS52 KTBW 260018
TORTBW
FLC015-027-055-071-260045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0013.110126T0018Z-110126T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
718 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 745 PM EST

* AT 714 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR CLEVELAND...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA GORDA...
AND ANOTHER TORNADO DEVELOPING 2 MILES SOUTH OF BOCA
GRANDE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLEVELAND.
BABCOCK RANCH.
TUCKERS CORNER.
FORT MYERS SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2665 8225 2674 8228 2676 8227 2679 8222
2670 8224 2672 8216 2666 8208 2680 8208
2678 8217 2681 8220 2687 8216 2681 8214
2681 8206 2692 8211 2706 8201 2706 8144
2702 8145 2702 8156 2663 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 294DEG 31KT 2688 8194




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The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page
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I usually see some weaking in this type of line when it gets into southern Florida, but this one is holding it's own (if not strenthening)...Quite impressive for this time of year.
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Looks like a few hook echoes on the west coast.maybe around Punta Gorda
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I think we're in the clear now. Very heavy rainfall rates. Wind were probably around 50, lightning. Intense but short lived.
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Severe Storm coverage in 1993Wow, even shows the watches... March 12-13, 1993

For some reason, wunderground will not show the embedded video, so there's the link..
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next
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1 TVS about to move over I-75 near Port Charlotte, Florida.

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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Why?


Easy, infrastructure. Remember those severe storms in the northeast? 60 mph winds did so much damage in New York. There been a lot of that around here, but most damage is isolated.

The trees down here are much stronger too, which helps also as far as power outage issues, and damage from flying debris.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Anyone noticing a second surface low attempting to form in the Central Gulf with the new southern extension of the squall line down to the Yucatan?


another look
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
654 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 730 PM EST

* AT 651 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FROSTPROOF...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVON PARK...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
AVON PARK.
FROSTPROOF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
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Winnipeg readies for flows akin to epic ’97 flood

WINNIPEG — The City of Winnipeg plans to raise 15 kilometres of dikes, fill three million sandbags and protect about 700 properties this spring to protect against river levels that could rise slightly higher than those experienced during the 1997 Red River flood, called Manitoba’s ‘Flood of the Century.’ .....
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490. flsky
All well in DBS - good luck everybody.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
The one thing about Florida is that it takes more severe weather to do damage here in northern states.


Why?
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Quoting Jedkins01:



no I never noticed! Are you sure that's what's going on out there?


Take a look at the loop posted in post 473. Take a look at 25 N and 87 W.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Anyone noticing a second surface low attempting to form in the Central Gulf with the new southern extension of the squall line down to the Yucatan?



no I never noticed! Are you sure that's what's going on out there?
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
We gusted to about 50 mph, had tons of lightning, the power went off then went back on. The one thing about Florida is that it takes more severe weather to do damage here in northern states. 60 TO 70 mph winds just don't do as much damage down here, but its still very violent to be in.

Because of that, there won't be as many reports like as if this had been further north in other states.

I remember in Michigan, 40 mph wind gusts in a thunderstorm completely wrecked havoc, knocking down trees and wires, here 70 mph winds do less.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
484. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like one paralleled I-4 from Orlando to Deltona. The storm that hit Oviedo has about made it to Oak Hill.

Just heard the 1st of the thunder.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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