2011: Year of the flood

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

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The year 2010 was one the worst years in world history for high-impact floods. But just three weeks into the new year, 2011 has already had an entire year's worth of mega-floods. I'll recap here six remarkable floods that have already occurred this year.

Brazil
Brazil suffered its deadliest natural disaster in history on January 11, when torrential rains inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. Flash floods and mudslides from the heavy rains have claimed 902 lives, including at least 357 in Nova Friburgo and 323 in Teresópolis. Rainfall amounts of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) fell in just a few hours in the hardest-hit regions. Damage estimates are currently $1.2 billion, and 13,000 were left homeless. Latest rainfall forecasts from the GFS model show the heaviest rains during the coming week staying well south of the Rio de Janeiro area, which will give the flood region time to dry out and recover.


Figure 1. Flooded stream in Teresópolis. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Australia Queensland
Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history is now the Queensland flood of 2010 - 2011, with a price tag now as high as $30 billion. At least 31 have been killed since December in the floods, and another 40 are missing. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in 2010 Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM noted, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined, and 3/4 of the region has been declared a disaster zone. The latest GFS precipitation forecast for the coming week shows new heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches can be expected over the extreme northern portion of Queensland, but the majority of the state will receive lesser rains that should not further aggravate the flooding situation.


Figure 2. The airport, the Bruce Highway, and large swaths of Rockhampton, Australia, went under water due to flooding from the Fitzroy River on January 9, 2011. The town of 75,000 was completely cut off by road and rail, and food, water and medicine had to be brought in by boat and helicopter. Image credit: NASA.

Australia Victoria
From January 12 - 14, extremely heavy rains over the southern Australian state of Victoria caused major flooding that killed one person and caused hundreds of millions in damage. Kevin Parkyn, a senior forecaster with the Bureau of Meteorology said "Victoria is experiencing one of its worst flood events in its history" after "a week in which rainfall totals have been smashed in parts of Victoria". Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Terry Ryan said "It's the worst flood in western Victoria in their history as far as our records go in terms of the depth of water and the number of places affected." According to atmospheric moisture expert Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, extratropical storm systems like the one that affected Victoria get 70% of their moisture from the surrounding atmosphere, and 30% due to evaporation from the surface. Since the airmass that supplied Victoria with its flooding rains traveled over the already-flooded portions of Queensland to the north before reaching Victoria, the moisture from the Queensland floods contributed significantly to the Victoria floods. Little rain is predicted over Victoria during the coming week, fortunately.

100-year flood in Sri Lanka
As I reported in my previous post, at least 43 are dead and damage estimates are at $500 million in Sri Lanka, which suffered a 1-in-100 year flood this month.

South Africa
Heavy rains of up 345 mm (13.6") have fallen in South Africa so far this month, resulting in deadly floods that have killed 40 people. Seven of the country's nine provinces have been declared disaster zones. Agricultural damage alone from the floods is estimated at $145 million. Heavy rains and severe flooding have also affected neighboring Mozambique, where 13 people are dead and 13,000 homeless or suffering damaged homes. Neighboring Zimbabwe has seen its heaviest rains in 30 years in recent weeks, according to the nation's Civil Protection Unit, but severe flooding has not yet hit that nation. La Niña events commonly cause heavy rains in southern Africa. Sea surface temperatures off the east coast of South Africa were 0.2 - 0.4°C above average during December 2010--nowhere near record levels, but warm enough to contribute to enhanced rainfall.

Philippines
Very heavy rains since late December have triggered a major flooding disaster in the Philippines, where 40 are dead, 453,000 people displaced, and 1.2 million people affected. The heavy rains were caused when a cold front moved over the eastern Philippines and lingered for many days. Heavy rains are common in the Philippines during La Niña events, as unusually warm waters accumulate by the islands. This winter, the waters in the central Philippines (10N to 15N, 120E to 130E) were at the warmest levels in history--1.0°C above average during December. The exceptionally warm waters allowed more moisture than usual to evaporate into the air, enhancing rainfall.

Commentary
The year 2011 has begun with a remarkable number of high-impact floods world-wide, and much of the blame for this can be placed on the current La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center currently puts the La Niña event in the "strong" category, and whenever a La Niña or El Niño event reaches the strong category, major perturbations to global weather patterns occur. This typically results in record or near-record flooding in one or more regions of the globe. When one combines the impact of La Niña with the increase of global ocean temperatures of 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the past 50 years, which has put 4% more water vapor into the atmosphere since 1970, the result is a much increased chance of unprecedented floods. A 4% increase in atmospheric moisture may not sound like much, but it turns out that precipitation will increase by about 8% with that 4% moisture increase. Critically, it is the extreme rainfall events that tend to supply the increased rainfall. For example, (Groisman et al., 2004) found a 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century, and a 36% rise in cold season (October - April) "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events. These extreme rainfall events are the ones most likely to cause floods.

References
Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Jeff Masters

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447. IKE
5 day QPF for today through Thursday....

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446. IKE
Quoting goosegirl1:


I feel so sorry for you- it's 7 right now with a wind chill of -10 and I'm about to go walk my little dog... 40 would feel like August right now. (sigh- life in the mountains)


Walk your dog...wth? If you mean take him out to do his business...I hear ya.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As predicted, the past 24 hours have seen more record daily lows or low maximums than record highs or high minimums; so far, the lows outnumber the highs by just 18 to 3. Those numbers will change as more stations report, but it'll take a lot of cold temps to reverse the trend of this past week, which has seen record highs outnumbering lows by 447 to 61.

61 here in Naples this morning, with a cold front coming through today plunging us into the low 40s tonight. That'll be our coldest night in two weeks, but nowhere near a record. Thankfully. ;-) The next ten days sees highs between the upper 60s and the mid 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sounds good to me...


I feel so sorry for you- it's 7 right now with a wind chill of -10 and I'm about to go walk my little dog... 40 would feel like August right now. (sigh- life in the mountains)
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24.0 degrees here in northeast N.C.  Not expected to get above freezing all day! Not a good day to argue AGW. lol
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443. IKE
28.8 my low...sunshine now:)
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As predicted, the past 24 hours have seen more record daily lows or low maximums than record highs or high minimums; so far, the lows outnumber the highs by just 18 to 3. Those numbers will change as more stations report, but it'll take a lot of cold temps to reverse the trend of this past week, which has seen record highs outnumbering lows by 447 to 61.

61 here in Naples this morning, with a cold front coming through today plunging us into the low 40s tonight. That'll be our coldest night in two weeks, but nowhere near a record. Thankfully. ;-) The next ten days sees highs between the upper 60s and the mid 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sounds good to me...
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441. IKE
29.1 my low so far.

To folks on here arguing over GW or anything else, have another hit...of Fresh Air..Link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygH6prkcIs
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What faith the atheist has! How close he is to God!, that by believing in himself, he can render the universe and his own judgement meaningless. That red is a color, that blue explains the sky, that the little particles, (if thats what they are) bouncing around inside his skull can understand themselves!
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Especially since said entity lacks falsifiable evidence for existence.


Does he now? I admit, it's rather hard to falsify most gods, particularly the Abrahamic one, but recently I've thought of two possible ways this can be done in the context of the Abrahamic god:

1. Prove that such a being is logically impossible.

2. Disprove one or more of his qualities. If you can do this, it will show that he's not what his respective holy books claim he is.

Good luck doing either, though. It's a place to start, at least.

EDIT: I'm very tired, and I realize that's not exactly what you were trying to convey. But I'll leave this here nonetheless, as others (and possibly yourself) may glean something beneficial from it. Who knows.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Seawall writes:
I see we've went from climate change to religeon



For some on this blog, "climate change" is a religion.
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437. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
4:00 pm CST January 22 2011
======================================

At 3:30 pm CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) was located at 14.8S 129.5E, or about 35 NM south of Port Keats and 75 NM northeast of Kununurra. The low is reported as moving east northeast at 3 knots.

The low is expected to remain near the coast, and is expected to start moving west towards the northern Kimberley during Sunday. The low may intensify if it moves further offshore.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, I could choose to be an atheist if I wanted to, God isn't going to stop me, that's part of the glory of us humam beings, we choose to become who we want to be.

What we can't choose is how we are physically, but what goes in our mind is a different story.

I'm not really sure what makes you say that, but it is your choice to not believe in God.



It's not a choice. It's coercion through fear, eternal punishment, and everlasting torture.

If this were a trial, the Judea-Islmo-Christian god would be found guilty of federal crimes. Warning someone your going to put them through excruciating torture if they didn't do as you say, doesn't absolve you of the fact that you put them through excruciating torture when they refused.

Sure there is talk of love and forgiveness, but behind it all is the fear of eternal damnation and suffering. That fear and uncertainty can be (and has been) used as a crowbar to mess with people's minds. It does worse to impressionable children.

From a psychological standpoint, a relationship with any entity with that kind of mentality is unhealthy. "Do this and daddy will love. Don't do it and I'll beat you with a belt."

My choice is not to be cowed into a never ending worry, guilt, and fear fest for the rest of my life because some bipolar invisible super fairy says they're going to burn me for eternity if I don't prostrate myself before it. Especially since said entity lacks falsifiable evidence for existence.

If I were a religious type, my inclinations would be towards religions that didn't threaten eternal punishment and world ending destruction.

But that's just me.
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Nothing to see here. Move along.
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434. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
12:00 PM FST January 22 2011
========================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TONGA.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (998 hPa) located at 14.1S 174.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots close to the center, 30-35 knots in sectors in northeast through east to southwest within 80-150 NM away from the center. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 6 knots but expected to turn southward in the next 24 hours. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. System lies along surface trough and under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.0, PT=2.0. Final Dvorak T number is based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

Most global models move tropical depression 06F south southeast in the next 36-42 hours then southwest with some intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is HIGH.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
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I see we've went from climate change to religeon.. or seems like it from a quick glance.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a hard freeze warning in SW LA, and SE TX
Hard Freeze Warning
Statement as of 11:46 PM CST on January 21, 2011


... Hard freeze warning remains in effect until 9 am CST
Saturday...

A hard freeze warning remains in effect until 9 am CST Saturday.

Freezing temperatures are returning once again as cold high
pressure settles over the area. Below freezing temperatures are
expected to persist through the next 6 to 9 hours... with hard
freeze conditions expected for 3 to 5 hours across interior
portions of southeast Texas and central Louisiana and 2 to 3 hours
along and south of the I-10 corridor. The coldest temperatures are
expected to occur around daybreak.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A hard freeze warning means temperatures in the mid 20s or colder
are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops
and other sensitive vegetation. People should take measures to
protect plants by covering them or bringing them inside.
Also... pets should be protected or moved indoors.

Be careful heating your home. Keep space heaters at least
36 inches away from anything that can burn. Turn it off anytime
you leave the room or go to bed.

To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water
pipes... pipes should be wrapped or drained.




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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm promoting human rights by preaching equality for all. I try and get people to see the "light", so to speak: no racism, no discrimination, etc. All that good stuff.

I'll be honest about the carbon footprint thing: I'm not doing much, much to my chagrin (I've been meaning to change). I don't recycle, drive a more environmentally friendly vehicle, or those kinds of things. This doesn't, however, mean that I don't consider climate change a very real and impending threat. On the contrary.


My family is also multi-racial. I'm 1/8 (not much but still) Native American. I'm glad that you are doing this.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


So, there is no choice that determines a humanoid units (sorry if there are those who object... I am only taking the philosophy seriously) fundamental option.

Are we are units without choice?

I don't believe that.



My only argument was that beliefs aren't choices. And I've seen nothing tonight, nor any other night, to contradict that. Until I do, I won't change.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Thanks for being honest... there are many that are not (this is a modification of the original... my bad for forgetting to say this)

My family is multi racial.

Talk is cheap try living it.

Good night


Good night. I haven't debated this passionately in awhile. I enjoyed it!

And I am opposed to neither honesty nor humility.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm promoting human rights by preaching equality for all. I try and get people to see the "light", so to speak: no racism, no discrimination, etc. All that good stuff.

I'll be honest about the carbon footprint thing: I'm not doing much, much to my chagrin (I've been meaning to change). I don't recycle, or those kinds of things. This doesn't, however, mean that I don't consider climate change a very real and impending threat. On the contrary.


Thanks for being honest... there are many that are not (this is a modification of the original... my bad for forgetting to say this)

My family is multi racial.

Talk is cheap try living it.

Good night
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


What are you doing to promote human rights?

I do agree you have no animosity nor opposition to human rights.

And (adding daughters question) what is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it?

Philosophical thesis: on how to reduce humanities carbon in a way that respect human rights.


I'm promoting human rights by preaching equality for all. I try and get people to see the "light", so to speak: no racism, no discrimination, etc. All that good stuff.

I'll be honest about the carbon footprint thing: I'm not doing much, much to my chagrin (I've been meaning to change). I don't recycle, drive a more environmentally friendly vehicle, or those kinds of things. This doesn't, however, mean that I don't consider climate change a very real and impending threat. On the contrary.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting KoritheMan:


Beliefs are shaped by experiences, upbringing, and other external factors. Not choice. It's not so simple a matter.


So, there is no choice that determines a humanoid units (sorry if there are those who object... I am only taking the philosophy seriously) fundamental option.

Are we are units without choice?

I don't believe that.

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Quoting Jedkins01:



To keep it simple, I have struggled with being quick to anger much of my life, as a kid, I had trouble being destructive, this continued into my teenage years, however as I grew into an Adult, I learned to deny my anger issues.

Before I believed my anger was a problem was when it was such a problem, I insisted it was everyone else that wrong.

However today I now know, that no, it was me with anger problem that was the issue, just as my parents always told me. You can't control how your emotions react, but you can control them.

You yourself said that you became an atheist through research. How then do you say you didn't choose?

Seriously man, everything we do, the decisions we make, what we eat, what job we work, what kind of education we get. Its choice. Certain things may or may not influence that choice, but it doesn't change that its choice.

Belief, or lack thereof is choice. I mean, maybe as an atheist, you choose to accept whatever your emotions or thoughts tell you.



But as Christian, everything is different, in fact, the Bible says to deny yourself, because the heart is deceitfully wicked.

That being said, yes we have emotions and thoughts, but based on the Bible, it doesn't mean that I should accept them all.

You can't really use that basis to prove me wrong then, because we can choose to deny what we feel. Millions of people have done it, you know.

I may have a certain feeling towards a woman that I am not married to, but I choose to deny my lust for for adultery every day.


Sir, we are discussing matters that cannot be debated, and this is a weather blog, so I don't plan on going any further.

We just both know where we stand.


I chose to research. I didn't choose the conclusion.

As for your example about adultery, while it's undoubtedly true that you can deny to give your lustful feelings a solid foundation for growth, I'd wager you would be hard-pressed to change those feelings in their entirety. The only thing you would accomplish is to quell any potential to act on those feelings; the lust itself would still be there.

Beliefs are shaped by experiences, upbringing, and other external factors. Not choice. It's not so simple a matter.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting KoritheMan:


My philosophy bears no animosity or opposition to the idea of human rights. What's your point?


What are you doing to promote human rights?

I do agree you have no animosity nor opposition to human rights.

And (adding daughters question) what is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it?

Philosophical thesis: on how to reduce humanities carbon in a way that respect human rights.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


The same author also owned slaves.

The passage is fundamental to promotion of human rights.

So, how will your philosophy promote human rights?


My philosophy bears no animosity or opposition to the idea of human rights. What's your point?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting KoritheMan:


*sigh*

It's NOT a choice. Anyone should know this. You can't change your emotions. You can try and blot out thoughts that go against your worldview or desires, sure, but that isn't at all tantamount to changing your emotions and the state of your heart.



To keep it simple, I have struggled with being quick to anger much of my life, as a kid, I had trouble being destructive, this continued into my teenage years, however as I grew into an Adult, I learned to deny my anger issues.

Before I believed my anger was a problem was when it was such a problem, I insisted it was everyone else that wrong.

However today I now know, that no, it was me with anger problem that was the issue, just as my parents always told me. You can't control how your emotions react, but you can control them.

You yourself said that you became an atheist through research. How then do you say you didn't choose?

Seriously man, everything we do, the decisions we make, what we eat, what job we work, what kind of education we get. Its choice. Certain things may or may not influence that choice, but it doesn't change that its choice.

Belief, or lack thereof is choice. I mean, maybe as an atheist, you choose to accept whatever your emotions or thoughts tell you.

But as Christian, everything is different, in fact, the Bible says to deny yourself, because the heart is deceitfully wicked.

That being said, yes we have emotions and thoughts, but based on the Bible, it doesn't mean that I should accept them all.

I may have a certain feeling towards a woman that I am not married to, but I choose to deny my lust for for adultery every day.


Sir, we are discussing matters that cannot be debated, and this is a weather blog, so I don't plan on going any further.

We just both know where we stand.

Lets keep the peace, and just talk about weather, you know I am a follower of Jesus, and I know you are an atheist, its as simple as that.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


You said you cannot change your emotions, which my comment does not disprove.

However, my emotions about smoking (I love it... I really do!) do not definitively determine my behavior, although they did do so for years.


Emotions are certainly only a part of the collective whole (read: a fancy, perhaps unnecessary metaphor for "belief" in this case), true.

I also argue, however, that you cannot change your mindset, either, which seems to be the most important piece of the puzzle when it comes to belief.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting Chicklit:
Congrats on quitting smoking EM.
Smoking is hell, deceit.
Connect with your breathing and good things happen.


Thank you... 6 months into the process there is the weight gain :(

But you are correct... smoking is hell and perhaps with the topic of conversation tonight folks out to reflect on their own little hells.
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Congrats on quitting smoking EM.
Smoking is hell, deceit.
Connect with your breathing.
First off, you become more honest.
Pain is just a part of life.
Accepting this will help you to appreciate it to the fullest.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Did I ever deny that?


You said you cannot change your emotions, which my comment does not disprove.

However, my emotions about smoking (I love it... I really do!) do not definitively determine my behavior, although they did do so for years.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


This particular excerpt of the DoI only proves that the people of the time believed in god. Nothing more.


The same author also owned slaves.

The passage is fundamental to promotion of human rights.

So, how will your philosophy promote human rights?
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


I quit smoking. I love to smoke.

I really love to smoke (outdoors, where it doesn't kill others, of course).

I love to smoke. I love it!

I quit.

Choices exist.


Did I ever deny that?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Um... I only will get into this on the philosophical level.

Declaration of Independence:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

Now, if somebody claims that the US is a certain religion the counterargument is that the person who wrote those words denied the biblical resurrection in writing (he wrote his own version of the bible).

The statement is a philosophical one and central to American thought.


This particular excerpt of the DoI only proves that the people of the time believed in god. Nothing more.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting KoritheMan:


*sigh*

It's NOT a choice. Anyone should know this. You can't change your emotions. You can try and blot out thoughts that go against your worldview or desires, sure, but that isn't at all tantamount to changing your emotions and the state of your heart.


I quit smoking. I love to smoke.

I really love to smoke (outdoors, where it doesn't kill others, of course).

I love to smoke. I love it!

I quit.

Choices exist.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, I could choose to be an atheist if I wanted to, God isn't going to stop me, that's part of the glory of us ham beings, we choose to become who we want to be.

What we can't choose is how we are physically, but what goes in our mind is a different story.

I'm not really sure what makes you say that, but it is your choice to not believe in God.



*sigh*

It's NOT a choice. Anyone should know this. You can't change your emotions. You can try and blot out thoughts that go against your worldview or desires, sure, but that isn't at all tantamount to changing your emotions and the state of your heart.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
As long as you're being esoteric, I don't see any harm posting this:
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I know it seems hard, but please, realize that your god is not self-evident. If he were, we'd all be believers. And that's clearly not the case.


Um... I only will get into this on the philosophical level.

Declaration of Independence:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

Now, if somebody claims that the US is a certain religion the counterargument is that the person who wrote those words denied the biblical resurrection in writing (he wrote his own version of the bible).

The statement is a philosophical one and central to American thought.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Also Jedkins, I want to correct you on one very important point. You said:

What I don't understand is why people would want to deny something that is offered to all people. I guess its that human pride factor that we don't want to admit we are all guilty and deserve judgment in the first place.

Could you "choose" to be an atheist tomorrow? Of your own volition? Could you honestly wake up and say "I don't believe in god", and then live your life as an atheist subsequent to that point? Seriously consider the implications of that question, and try not to say something so ignorant and ill-conceived next time.

Atheists do not "choose" to disbelieve in god anymore than you "choose" to believe in him. Technically yes, belief is a choice, but only when it comes to specific things. When it comes to religion, that choice can only be made after the realization of what you believe comes to you. I became an atheist about two and a half years ago, not by choice, but when my mind just sort of told me "Hey, I don't believe in god anymore." That "decision" was brought upon by years of experience and theological study. It was not a conscious choice on my part, nor was it an act of rebellion. Rebellion would imply a hidden, subtle theistic belief, which I lack. ;)

I know it seems hard, but please, realize that your god is not self-evident. If he were, we'd all be believers. And that's clearly not the case.



Actually, I could choose to be an atheist if I wanted to, God isn't going to stop me, that's part of the glory of us humam beings, we choose to become who we want to be.

What we can't choose is how we are physically, but what goes in our mind is a different story.

I'm not really sure what makes you say that, but it is your choice to not believe in God.

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Quoting captainhunter:
380. Jedkins01

I am not mocking and I certainly don't think Christians are fools. I just think we should all be comfortable enough with ourselves to except the beliefs of others without judging one another. Which is why I often wonder why Christians are so quick to judge themselves when their own religion says only Christ can judge. And no, I won't be begging for God's forgiveness on my death bed as that would make me a hypocrite and hypocrisy is another thing that Christianity frowns upon.


Well the Bible doesn't so much say to accept others beliefs. What it does say is to accept others though. Consider this, you don't believe what I believe. But if what I believe is the truth to me, why would I not tell others that they have to give an account to God on their death bed?

As a Christian, I hope that you and others that don't believe will come to believe. However, I can't change that, and therefore I'm not gonna reject you because you don't. After all, based on the Bible, God loves all people, just those who don't believe are the ones rejecting God, not God rejecting them.

Since we are all equal, all human beings with successes and failures, I am not right to judge you, and I am not.

However, the Bible never says that Christians will always treat others the way they should, in fact, it makes it clear that Christians are also still sinners and make mistakes like non-believers. In fact, even the Bible's most well known "Bible heros" made some pretty bad mistakes because they were, human.

So if you have had Christians try and shove it down your throat, I agree, it is judgmental, and is not right, but it doesn't make it God's fault, and neither is it my fault that you have had that experience.

I am not constantly proclaiming how you and others who don't believe will burn in hell. All I said was that all have to give an account to God.

So if you feel I am shoving it down your throat, well then that's your choice, however, I never became judgmental about anything.


Some here on these blogs may also say to me, yeah you don't always behave like a Christian, that's true. But that's the whole point of being a Christian, its supposed to be relying on God's grace, because us Christians are pretty darn flawed too, in fact in some ways we can be worse, because sometimes we can be judgmental, acting like we are somehow better. That is also a problem very well addressed in the Bible.

Whatever the case, I respect who you are as person whether you believe or not, and I never intend to force you or anyone else to believe.

An attempt to force others to believe is just as anti-Christ as anything. Jesus Himself declared the pharasees, who were the most religious of all, to be actually the most wicked of all, because they had judgmental self righteous hearts.

However, the self righteousness of some professing Christians is not a region to reject Christians. Because we are no more righteous then non believers.

I have atheist friends, as much as I hope they will change, I don't reject them, because I am human like them, and I enjoy who they are as people.
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Oh, beware the Ides of Tax Credits.

I had assumed that the hybrid tankless (heat with water in the deep south... it was a solar water thing) would be a tax credit this year.

Nope... $1500 over a two year period max.

So (being a conservative it is obligatory to show government stupidity!) I got a tax credit for a solar water heater that slightly increased my carbon footprint...

And no tax for something that is twice as efficient.

Heck, perhaps those tax credits are for those of us are into research...

Solar PV (provided your state has good net metering rules) is good.

Don't bother with solar thermal.... gobble, gobble.

So, I am whole with the tax credits :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it won't be long now feb is a short month and next weekend is the end of jan before we know it it will be the start of march then spring an onward to summer and cane season


Can't wait!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Also Jedkins, I want to correct you on one very important point. You said:

What I don't understand is why people would want to deny something that is offered to all people. I guess its that human pride factor that we don't want to admit we are all guilty and deserve judgment in the first place.

Could you "choose" to be an atheist tomorrow? Of your own volition? Could you honestly wake up and say "I don't believe in god", and then live your life as an atheist subsequent to that point? Seriously consider the implications of that question, and try not to say something so ignorant and ill-conceived next time.

Atheists do not "choose" to disbelieve in god anymore than you "choose" to believe in him. Technically yes, belief is a choice, but only when it comes to specific things. When it comes to religion, that choice can only be made after the realization of what you believe comes to you. I became an atheist about two and a half years ago, not by choice, but when my mind just sort of told me "Hey, I don't believe in god anymore." That "decision" was brought upon by years of experience and theological study. It was not a conscious choice on my part, nor was it an act of rebellion. Rebellion would imply a hidden, subtle theistic belief, which I lack. ;)

I know it seems hard, but please, realize that your god is not self-evident. If he were, we'd all be believers. And that's clearly not the case.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
What about all that money I have been putting in the basket?
that kinda works like this what ever god wants we will toss it into the air and he takes whatever comes back down well thats ours for bringing it in for him
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Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
What about all that money I have been putting in the basket?


what kind of car does your pastor drive? notice also that most of the tithes will go towards programs that benefit the church only, or its members. there ploy to say they serve the community is the claim that they save souls while others dont... its pretty typical for a religious organization to claim openness too all, only to subtly tell you everything your doing wrong...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I, too, am particularly tired of winter at this point.
it won't be long now feb is a short month and next weekend is the end of jan before we know it it will be the start of march then spring an onward to summer and cane season
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Something wonderful indeed Keep. The world is changing.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
OK, I say we cancel winter and move right into early May everyone..

The Dallas-Ft Worth AP in TX was 3.3F above normal in Nov 2010, 2.6F above normal in Dec 2010. Jan is at 2.6F BELOW normal and I am just ready for it to be 85F every day :O)!!!


I, too, am particularly tired of winter at this point.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting Jedkins01:



Hey, at least you aren't a bitter atheist, I have hope for people like you :)


;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21684
Quoting Bordonaro:
OK, I say we cancel winter and move right into early May everyone..

The Dallas-Ft Worth AP in TX was 3.3F above normal in Nov 2010, 2.6F above normal in Dec 2010. Jan is at 2.6F BELOW normal and I am just ready for it to be 85F every day :O)!!!


I agree wholeheartedly. I e-mailed my local TV met in PC Beach this evening and asked if it was going to freeze near the immediate coast and he replied, 'get your plants in.' That's just wrong. Off to bring the plants into the garage. Night all.
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