2010: tied with 2005 for warmest year in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2011

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The year 2010 was tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, according to separate calculations performed by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures during 2010 were 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. NOAA reported that the Northern Hemisphere had its warmest year on record in 2010, the Southern Hemisphere its 6th warmest, land areas their 2nd warmest, and the oceans their 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures of the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere during 2010 were virtually tied with 1998 for warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The 1998 temperatures were 0.01°C warmer than 2010, but the difference is so small that the two years should be considered tied for first place. These measurements are very sensitive to the effect of major El Niño events that warm the waters and atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific. Thus the 1998 El Niño--the strongest such event ever recorded--set a global lower atmospheric temperature record that had been impossible to match until 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Earth's warmest temperatures in 2010, relative to average, occurred in western Greenland and eastern Canada, where record-duration sea ice loss contributed to temperatures that were 9°F (5°C) above average for the year (Figure 1.) The coolest temperatures, relative to average, were in central Siberia, 5.4°F (3°C) below average. In addition to being the warmest year on record globally, it was also the wettest (Figure 4.)


Figure 2. The latest rankings by NOAA of the hottest years globally since 1880. Earth's ten hottest years have all come since 1998, and the decade of the 2000s was by far the warmest decade in the historical record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. Global departure of temperature from average for 1880-2010, as computed by NASA.


Figure 4. Global departure of precipitation from average for 1900 - 2010. The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year in Earth's history. The difference in precipitation from average in 2010 was about 13% higher than that of the previous record wettest year, 1956. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A record warm year during a deep solar minimum: an unusual occurrence
The 2010 record warmth was unusual in that it occurred during a period when energy from the sun was at its lowest levels since satellite measurements began in the 1970s. The 11-year sunspot cycle causes a 0.1% variation in the amount of energy reaching the Earth. White et al. (1997) found that sea surface temperatures varied by about 0.04 - 0.07°C on time scales of 11 - 22 years due to this change in solar energy, with temperatures lagging the sunspot cycle by 1.5 - 3 years (because the ocean is slow to heat up and cool down in response.) So, although solar activity began to pick up somewhat in 2010, the 1.5 - 3 year lag in ocean temperature response meant that the record low solar activity of 2008 - 2009 was what affected global temperatures in 2010. Given that the departure of Earth's temperature from average during 2010 was 0.62°C, this difference would have been perhaps 10% greater had we been 2 - 3 years past the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The previous global temperature record, set in 2005, occurred 3 - 5 years after the twin-peaked previous solar cycle. It is very difficult to get a record warm year during a deep solar minimum, making the 2010 record one likely to be broken later this decade as the sun begins to exert a greater warming influence on the planet.


Figure 5. During 2008 - 2009, the energy from the sun arriving at the top of Earth's atmosphere (Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI) as measured by satellites fell to its lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1978. Image credit: Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center.

References
Skepticalscience.com has an in-depth discussion of Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?

Wunderground climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a comprehensive 5-part series on how the sun affects climate.

Gray, L.J., J. Beer, M. Geller, J.D. Haigh, M. Lockwood, 2010, "Solar Influences on Climate", Accepted in Rev. Geophys, 2010.

White, W.B., J. Lean, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger (1997), Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255-3266.

Thunderstorms hurl antimatter into space
NASA announced this week that mature thunderstorms can produce antimatter when exceptionally powerful lightning bolts occur. The antimattter beams were detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. The amount of antimatter produced is tiny, though, and probably not enough to help power a starship.

"Cap'n, we're running low on antimatter to power the warp engines. Can you fly in low over those thunderstorms to replenish our reserves? We'll use the transporters to gather the antimatter and funnel it into the antimatter containment vessel."

"OK, Scotty!"

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting xcool:



Thanks for posting that.If that's correct then it looks like we could have another strong cape verde season.
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Once again, HaloReachFan, none of your points refuted anything I said :) But your effort is appreciated :)


Actually all my points did. I pointed you out as a liar ;)

Number 270 is the greatest example.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I didn't ask for the real definition of it. Just which hit the U.S. and in fact it still remains as one weak system as all of the storms that hit just south of Texas had the left part of the hurricane just missing the state.
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I said Loehle had studied foresty. And David H. Douglass is climatologist for Arizona, but he got his degree in astronomy and physics, not

Which was a political appointment---he got his degree in neither climatology or meteorology.


David H. Douglass was apart of the 6th article which also has many other authors.

Also he has none of which you posted this is his wikipedia

David H. Douglass is an American physicist at the University of Rochester. Prof. Douglass received his B.S. in Physics from the University of Maine and his Ph.D. in Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. After positions at MIT Lincoln Laboratories and MIT, he was appointed Assistant Professor of Physics at the University of Chicago. At Chicago, he was promoted to Associate Professor and Professor. Prof. Douglass joined the University of Rochester as a Professor of Physics in 1968. Prof. Douglass was a recipient of the Alfred P. Sloan Award (junior) for 4 years, the Alfred P. Sloan Award (senior), and the University of Rochester's Bridging Fellowship to the Eastman School of Music. He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and the New York Academy of Sciences.

Does any of that look what you wrote. Again another lie.
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Quoting xcool:




What are those showing ????
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Quoting HaloReachFan:


How many storms made a direct hit with the U.S. this season? By direct I mean Eye Wall as a hurricane slamming into the U.S.


None. And a direct hit is not a landfall:

Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.

Glossary of NHC Terms

There were 13 direct hits and 16 landfalls elsewhere.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season
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Quoting calusakat:
Quoting Patrap:

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.


Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



Boring.

How many times have you posted the same thing now.

10 times?

Sure seems like it.

Maybe you could find another source authority for a change?




At least now there's a link to the paper that uses the image. No data or info as to who ran the simulations.

"...Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line)..."

Apparently, none of the models or experiments were able to hind-cast the spike in observed.

BTW, exactly when were these experiments run?
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263. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting pottery:

You are just trying to get a rise out of Calusakat, are'nt you? LOL


Why?

Were her comments peer reviewed?

No?

Her comments are now ignored.

Thanks you for calling my attention to her post.

Just kidding :-)


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
For HaloReachFan. You're welcome. Link


So one person out of 5 and you think that's enough? I think he didn't write the whole article because he didn't know enough that is why 4 others joined in. ;)
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So LoveStormsatNight is lying to everybody on this blog. By not giving everybody all the information about what the articles are about and why the authors are allowed to comment on the subject.

Numbers 1-3 are about tree rings the author has a M.S. in forest management seems like he should be allowed to talk about tree rings

Number 4 is by Robert Balling Jr. and the article is about (Redirected from Environmental geoscience)
Environmental geology, like hydrogeology, is an applied science concerned with the practical application of the principles of geology in the solving of environmental problems.
Balling is a professor of geology at ASU and also ran the Climatology department there for a while too.

Number 5 has a bunch of authors all of which I can't find anything on them mainly because of no first names so how did he find anything on them?
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Heavy persistent rains in the Philipines have so far killed over 50 people and affected 1.6 million.
Dec and Jan are usually dryseason months.....

from CNN

Extreme weather continues to create havoc all over the place.
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Number 3 is about tree rings which is what Craig Loehle specializes in

Loehle "received a B.S. in forest science from the University of Georgia, a M.S. in forest management from the University of Washington, and a Ph.D. in range management (mathematical ecology) from Colorado State University"

Your character assassination is looking horrible right now.

Edit

Added this. Article 1 and 2 also are from Craig Loehle which are also about tree rings. Get over yourself right now seriously.
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we have become so smart we are stupid
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And number 4 was the former director of Climatology at ASU.
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Alright Lovestormsatnight.

I went to the 5th one on the list and got back this for the Author but actually in this case Authurs.

G. G. Anagnostopoulosa; D. Koutsoyiannisa; A. Christofidesa; A. Efstratiadisa; N. Mamassisa

Just a little something I couldn't find anything on them because of you know no first names so how did you find so much on them. Unless you magically have their first names you can really find nothing on them an easy google search did it for me.
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252. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 24.9S 165.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots and is reported as moving southeast at 30 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in northern semi-circle, within 120 NM in southeast quadrant, and 60 NM in the southwest quadrant

Additional Information
========================

Organization has decreased slightly past 24 hours. Primary bands to the north and south decreasing significantly with north band influenced by New Caledonia land mass. Eye remains cloud filled. Outflow fair but decreasing to the north and south. System is being steered southeastward by the deep layer mean northwesterly regime. Cyclone is accelerating into a weak sheared environment and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Dvorak assessment based on embedded center with MG SURR, yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southeast with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours and then rapid weakening after 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 28.9S 168.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 33.2S 170.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 41.3S 177.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at around 7:00 AM UTC By TCWC Wellington..
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Quoting hcubed:
To me, this is the telling phrase:

"...In practice, climate science has numerous examples where authors of highly influential papers have refused to reveal their complete set of data or the processing methods that they used. Even worse, the journals in question not only allowed this to happen, but have subsequently defended the lack of disclosure when other researchers attempted to replicate the work..."

And yes, these are the "peer-reviewed" journals.


Why would they hide information, and that of which was paid with public monies ? Just wait on the UVA item. It will be a doosie :) out>>>>>

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185


Maybe Kurt Vonnegut was right and cockroaches will rule the universe.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11172
248. DEKRE
Quoting calusakat:


Obviously you are not part of a family of engineers like myself.

Four generations to be exact.

I have lived my life hearing the question' Do you have a degree in that subject?'

Especially at parties and large get-togethers. Kind of like going to a wedding between two employees of Disney. The only thing being discussed is Disney related topics. Changing the subject isn't even on the menu.




Unfortunately, this is a problem which is very common in north america. The education system tend to form what we call "educated idiots", people who are very good in a small field of specialization, without any knowledge outside their field. Of course, they have only one subject.
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To me, this is the telling phrase:

"...In practice, climate science has numerous examples where authors of highly influential papers have refused to reveal their complete set of data or the processing methods that they used. Even worse, the journals in question not only allowed this to happen, but have subsequently defended the lack of disclosure when other researchers attempted to replicate the work..."

And yes, these are the "peer-reviewed" journals.
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Quoting pottery:

I think I understand your situation.
But it should not prejudice you against ALL people with degrees.
That's silly.


I don't think of it as prejudice at all.

Whenever a person attempts to stifle amiable conversation with that stupid refrain about 'is that peer reviewed or that person can't be right because they don't have a degree in the subject, I see it as nothing but an attempt at violating a persons free speech rights.

If you don't like what is being presented, then, by all means feel free to present your side in like manner.

Freedom of speech should reign supreme even when it is about AGW.




Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting Chicklit:

Evening folks.
Nice blog from Dr. Masters.
That we are seeing global warming during solar minimum is a lot more convincing than we haven't been around long enough to trust our observations.
Of course when I say "our" I mean we as humans with specific reference to specialists in meteorological and atmospheric science with degrees from accredited universities and years of professional experience in the field with the latest technologies at their service.


You are just trying to get a rise out of Calusakat, are'nt you? LOL
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Evening folks.
Nice blog from Dr. Masters.
That we are seeing global warming during solar minimum is a lot more convincing than we haven't been around long enough to trust our observations.
Of course when I say "our" I mean we as humans with specific reference to specialists in meteorological and atmospheric science with degrees from accredited universities and years of professional experience in the field with the latest technologies at their service.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11172
Quoting KoritheMan:


Which is why I wish there were better ways for us to predict synoptic scale steering. That's far more important than numbers.

Good point.
Matters more to everyone, in the end.
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
So you knew then that the list you posted was mostly by people who are neither climatologists or meteorologists then.

I appreciate the honesty of your answer to my question.



That is simply a wrong statement. You have 845 to go bro, but then again, you don't read them anyhow. Neither qualifications are required to study and provide pertinent, meaningful information/data about climate let alone the impacts of the obvious corruption going on in today's disappointing science community on the subject. Confining the science to a term climate scientist/meteorologist is actually quite humorous. Kinda like an air pollution meteorologist, No? Have fun, I will waste no more CO2 on you :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting calusakat:


Sure looks like you are putting words into his mouth.

Isn't putting words into someones mouth kind of like telling a lie?

Doesn't that make you a...nevermind.

When arguing with a fool...boy that was close.




Glad you caught yourself there!
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Oss is that godzilla?
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
So you knew then that the list you posted was mostly by people who are neither climatologists or meteorologists then.

I appreciate the honesty of your answer to my question.



Sure looks like you are putting words into his mouth.

Isn't putting words into someones mouth kind of like telling a lie?

Doesn't that make you a...nevermind.

When arguing with a fool...boy that was close.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting pottery:

True.
But steering currents have a minimal effect on Hurricane formation, once the storm is below say 25 N..
They affect where the storm will end up, if it forms.


Which is why I wish there were better ways for us to predict synoptic scale steering. That's far more important than numbers.
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Quoting calusakat:


BTW HaloReachFan my comments were not directed at you. I simply chose your comment to open up the floor for my comments.

My comments were directed 'out there' where the lurkers and travelers exist.

I meant you no disrespect.





Oh no. I didn't see any disrespect in my eyes your all good.
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Quoting calusakat:


Obviously you are not part of a family of engineers like myself.

Four generations to be exact.

I have lived my life hearing the question' Do you have a degree in that subject?'

Especially at parties and large get-togethers. Kind of like going to a wedding between two employees of Disney. The only thing being discussed is Disney related topics. Changing the subject isn't even on the menu.



I think I understand your situation.
But it should not prejudice you against ALL people with degrees.
That's silly.
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Quoting HaloReachFan:


I see.


BTW HaloReachFan my comments were not directed at you. I simply chose your comment to open up the floor for my comments.

My comments were directed 'out there' where the lurkers and travelers exist.

I meant you no disrespect.



Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting KoritheMan:


Mean steering currents are harder to predict than seasonal activity. This is at least partially because of our relative skill in predicting ENSO events.

True.
But steering currents have a minimal effect on Hurricane formation, once the storm is below say 25 N..
They affect where the storm will end up, if it forms.
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Ossqss here's a question for you. Did you know in advance that most of the papers in your list are not by climatologists or meteorologists? Or did you do a quick google search for skeptical papers and post it without reading it and knowing what it was?


Oh the comfort of a closed mind. It's about physics bro. BTW, I have read most of the free ones and many of the payed versions from that list, let alone hundreds of others that are not on that list. You apparently only read propaganda, so stay there and enjoy your paradise while you can, and keep that dewy decimal system straight in that library. LOL
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting pottery:

You are back-pedalling here.....


Obviously you are not part of a family of engineers like myself.

Four generations to be exact.

I have lived my life hearing the question' Do you have a degree in that subject?'

Especially at parties and large get-togethers. Kind of like going to a wedding between two employees of Disney. The only thing being discussed is Disney related topics. Changing the subject isn't even on the menu.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting calusakat:


You missed my point.

This is not a blog solely populated by degreed individuals.

It is a blog provided so that people can gather and blog about their views of the weather. Be they right or wrong, it matters not.

Expecting people to adhere to the standards of a specialized blog is nothing short of "CENSORSHIP OF FREE SPEECH".

If I remember correctly, long ago, those who insisted, against CTW, that the world was round, risked being burned at the stake for such heresy.

If you want this to become a 'Degrees Only' blog, by all means, get the Doctor to make those changes immediately.

Otherwise stop trying to censor the free speech of those who visit here.

Harry Potter is a fictional character, so is the belief that being degreed in a subject makes your views above challenge by others who are not so degreed.

CTW - Current Thinking and Writing



What you say cuts both ways.....
I saw no censorship, but rather a continued attempt to correct what he sees as erroneous views.
Like what you are trying to do.
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Quoting calusakat:


You missed my point.

This is not a blog solely populated by degreed individuals.

It is a blog provided so that people can gather and blog about their views of the weather. Be they right or wrong, it matters not.

Expecting people to adhere to the standards of a specialized blog is nothing short of "CENSORSHIP OF FREE SPEECH".

If I remember correctly, long ago, those who insisted, against CTW, that the world was round, risked being burned at the stake for such heresy.

If you want this to become a 'Degrees Only' blog, by all means, get the Doctor to make those changes immediately.

Otherwise stop trying to censor the free speech of those who visit here.

Harry Potter is a fictional character, so is the belief that being degreed in a subject makes your views above challenge by others who are not so degreed.

CTW - Current Thinking and Writing




I see.
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
After last season, with 19 named storms and only one weak landfall in the USA, I am reserving my forecast for the 2011 season until Thanksgiving.


Mean steering currents are harder to predict than seasonal activity. This is at least partially because of our relative skill in predicting ENSO events.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I do.I think our La nina will stay in place,and sst have stayed above average in the atlantic.La nina/warm sst=bad hurricane season.

Agree.
But those conditions can change in 6 months.
And other conditions can come into play, like SAL, weather over the SAHEL in the next couple of months, the extent of the Polar ice by March, etc etc.
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Quoting HaloReachFan:


Peer-reviewed papers are true and accurate
The peer-review process was established for the benefit of editors who did not have good knowledge across all the fields that their journals addressed. It provided a "sanity check" to avoid the risk of publishing papers which were so outlandish that the journal would be ridiculed and lose its reputation.
In principle this notion seems entirely reasonable, but it neglects certain aspects of human nature, especially the tendency for reviewers to defend their own (earlier) papers, and indirectly their reputations, against challengers. Peer review also ignores the strong tendency for papers that disagree with a popular hypothesis, one the reviewer understands and perhaps supports, to receive a closer and often hostile scrutiny.
Reviewers are selected from practitioners in the field, but many scientific fields are so small that the reviewers will know the authors. The reviewers may even have worked with the authors in the past or wish to work with them in future, so the objectivity of any review is likely to be tainted by this association.
Some journals now request that authors suggest appropriate reviewers but this is a sure way to identify reviewers who will be favourable to certain propositions.
It also follows that if the editor of a journal wishes to reject a paper, then it will be sent to a reviewer who is likely to reject it, whereas a paper that the editor favours to be published will be sent to a reviewer who is expected to be sympathetic. In 2002 the editor-in-chief of the journal "Science" announced that there was no longer any doubt that human activity was changing climate, so what are the realistic chances of this journal publishing a paper that suggests otherwise?
The popular notion is that reviewers should be skilled in the relevant field, but a scientific field like climate change is so broad, and encompasses so many sub disciplines, that it really requires the use of expert reviewers from many different fields. That this is seldom undertaken explains why so many initially influential climate papers have later been found to be fundamentally flawed.
In theory, reviewers should be able to understand and replicate the processing used by the author(s). In practice, climate science has numerous examples where authors of highly influential papers have refused to reveal their complete set of data or the processing methods that they used. Even worse, the journals in question not only allowed this to happen, but have subsequently defended the lack of disclosure when other researchers attempted to replicate the work.
Link


You missed my point.

This is not a blog solely populated by degreed individuals.

It is a blog provided so that people can gather and blog about their views of the weather. Be they right or wrong, it matters not.

Expecting people to adhere to the standards of a specialized blog is nothing short of "CENSORSHIP OF FREE SPEECH".

If I remember correctly, long ago, those who insisted, against CTW, that the world was round, risked being burned at the stake for such heresy.

If you want this to become a 'Degrees Only' blog, by all means, get the Doctor to make those changes immediately.

Otherwise stop trying to censor the free speech of those who visit here.

Harry Potter is a fictional character, so is the belief that being degreed in a subject makes your views above challenge by others who are not so degreed.

CTW - Current Thinking and Writing


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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