At least 611 dead in Brazilian floods: Brazil's deadliest natural disaster in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:05 PM GMT on January 14, 2011

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Torrential rains inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday and Wednesday, triggering flash floods and mudslides that have claimed at least 611 lives. Rainfall amounts of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) fell in just a few hours in the hardest-hit regions, Teresopolis and Nova Friburgo. Many more people are missing, and the death toll is expected to go much higher once rescuers reach remote villages that have been cut off from communications. The death toll makes the January 2011 floods Brazil's worst single-day natural disaster in its history. Brazil suffers hundreds of deaths each year due to flooding and mudslides, but the past 12 months have been particularly devastating. Flooding and landslides near Rio in April last year killed 246 people and did about $13 billion in damage, and at least 85 people perished last January during a similar event.


Figure 1. Flooding at Sao Jose do Vale do Vale do Rio Preto in Brazil, photographed on Thursday, January 13, 2011.

Role of near-record sea surface temperatures in Brazil's flood
This week's heavy rains occurred when a storm system crossing from west to east over southern Brazil drew in a moist southerly flow air off the Atlantic Ocean over southern Brazil at the surface. At higher levels, the storm drew in very moist air from the Amazon. Sea surface temperatures along the Brazilian coast are at near-record warm levels, which likely contributed to the heavy rains. Record rains are more likely when sea surface temperatures over the nearby moisture source regions are at record high levels. This occurs because increased amounts of water vapor evaporate into the atmosphere from a warm ocean compared to a cold one, due to the extra motion and energy of the hotter water molecules. According to an analysis I did of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre sea surface temperature data set, December 2010 sea surface temperatures in the 5x5 degree region of Earth's surface along the Brazilian shore nearest the disaster area, 20S to 25S and 45W to 40W, were the second warmest on record since 1900. Temperatures were 1.05°C (1.9°F) above average in this region last month. Only 2007, with a 1.21°C departure from average, had warmer December ocean temperatures.

Meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart, with the Brazilian private weather forecasting company Metsul, wrote in his blog today, "Heavy rains early this year coincide with the strong warming of the Atlantic along the coasts of southern and southeastern Brazil. With waters up to 2°C warmer than average in some places, there is a major release of moisture in the atmosphere essential for the formation of storms."


Figure 2. Newspaper front page story in Brazil after the March 18, 1967 flooding disaster, Brazil's previous deadliest single-day natural disaster. Image credit: Metsul.

Brazil's previous worst natural disaster: the March 18, 1967 flood
The previous worst natural disaster in Brazilian history occurred on March 18, 1967 when a tsunami-like flood of water, mud and rocks swept down a hillside in the coastal city of Caraguatatuba, near Sao Paulo, killing 300 - 500 people. According to meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart with the private Brazilian weather company Metsul, a rainguage at nearby Sao Sebastao measured 115 mm (4.5") on March 17, and 420 mm (17") on March 18. Hackbart puts the death toll from the 1967 disaster at 300 - 500, and refers to it as Brazil's deadliest single-day natural disaster in history. Heavy rains at other locations in Brazil that month caused additional mudslides and flooding deaths, and Wikipedia lists the total death toll for the Brazil March 1967 floods at 785.

I looked at the sea surface temperatures for March 1967 to see if unusually warm ocean waters may have contributed to that year's flooding disaster. Sea surface temperatures in the 5x5 degree region of Earth's surface nearest the disaster site (20S to 25S, 50W to 45W) were 0.24°C (0.4°F) above average, which is not significantly different from normal. So, we can get record rains and flooding when sea surface temperatures are near normal, and it is possible that this week's catastrophe was not significantly impacted by the exceptionally warm water near the coast. However, heating up the oceans loads the dice in favor of extreme rainfall events, and makes it more likely we will have an unprecedented flood. If we look at the departure of temperature from average for the moisture source regions of the globe's four most extreme flooding disasters over the past 12 months, we find that these ocean temperatures ranked 2nd or 3rd warmest, going back through 111 years of history:

January 2011 Brazilian floods: 2nd warmest SSTs on record, +1.05°C (20S to 25S, 45W to 40W)
November 2010 Colombia floods: 3rd warmest SSTs on record, +0.65°C (10N to 0N, 80W to 75W)
December 2010 Australian floods: 3rd warmest SSTs on record, +1.05°C (10S to 25S, 145E to 155E)
July 2010 Pakistani floods: 2nd warmest SSTs on record, +0.95°C (Bay of Bengal, 10N to 20N, 80E to 95E)

The size of the ocean source region appropriate to use for these calculations is uncertain, and these rankings will move up or down by averaging in a larger or smaller region of ocean. For example, if one includes an adjacent 5x5 degree area of ocean next to Brazil's coast that may have also contributed moisture to this week's floods, the SSTs rank as 7th warmest in the past 111 years, instead of 2nd warmest. It would take detailed modeling studies to determine just how much impact these near-record sea surface temperatures had on the heavy rains that occurred, and what portion of the ocean served as the moisture source region.


Figure 3. Predicted total precipitation amounts in South America for the 7-day period ending at 7am EST January 21, 2011, as forecast by the 06Z run of the GFS Ensemble model made January 14, 2011. Image credit: Florida State University.

More rain in the forecast
The coast of Brazil is embedded in a warm, moist tropical airmass that is expected to continue to bring heavy rains over he Rio de Janeiro area for at least the next week. Heavy rains in excess of five inches in the next seven days (Figure 3) are predicted by the GFS Ensemble computer model for the disaster region, just north of Rio de Janeiro. The additional heavy rains are likely to cause more life-threatening mudslides and floods.

2010 tied for warmest year in Earth's history
Earth's warmest year in history occurred in 2010, NASA reported this week. The globe's temperature beat the previous record set in 2005 by just .01°C, so we should consider 2010 and 2005 tied for the warmest year on reecord. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also announced this week that 2010 was tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures during 2010 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. When the planet stops producing record weather catastrophes to blog about, I'll discuss the 2010 global temperature record in more detail.

Anniversary of the Haitian earthquake
Yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of the great Haitian earthquake of 2010. I want to thank all of you who offered donations to such great charities as the Lambi Fund of Haiti and Portlight.org. The people of Haiti need our continued financial support and prayers in the difficult rebuilding years to come.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Haiti Christmas (Portlight)
Haiti Christmas

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Quoting beell:
Probably worth keeping an eye on for Monday.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND CORRESPONDING
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN THIRD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SUNDAY WILL TURN EWD AS
IT ENTERS UPPER TROUGH BASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN GULF AND
GULF COASTAL AREA MONDAY...REACHING FL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

...SRN HALF OF FL PENINSULA...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH SRN FL MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH
. LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN FL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL
WHERE DIABATIC WARMING CAN DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting JFLORIDA:


LOL the IPCC uses different peer reviewed literature STUDIES on climate.

So its whatever study you have a problem with.

Which something deep down tells me you dont know.
You laugh, but don't answer the question. Where is the CRU raw data?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
624. beell
Probably worth keeping an eye on for Monday.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND CORRESPONDING
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN THIRD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SUNDAY WILL TURN EWD AS
IT ENTERS UPPER TROUGH BASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN GULF AND
GULF COASTAL AREA MONDAY...REACHING FL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

...SRN HALF OF FL PENINSULA...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH SRN FL MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH
. LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN FL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL
WHERE DIABATIC WARMING CAN DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's interesting to see that the south pac and the south io are finally starting to heat up with tropical activity.
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this is just hissy fit contest season right now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting lightningbolt73:
I totally agree! I haven't been a memeber that long, but it seems like when I would bring up a topic on here a lot of people would rather ignore it and argue and insult each other!
and you are in the off season things really heat up when cane season starts approaching
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I myself stopped coming to this blog for a while; I hadn't posted or even read any of the comments for like two years when I came back. Of course, I left because of all of the sheer nonsense that was going on (in fact, it got so bad that people were getting bans over it, I stopped coming shortly after I was banned (from this blog), even if for only 24 hours).

On the other hand, I now wonder why I did come back (one reason though was the way certain trolls got one of my friends permabanned, not that it isn't easy to circumvent it but it destroys your standing as one of the long-term regulars, and of course incites harassment)...
I totally agree! I haven't been a memeber that long, but it seems like when I would bring up a topic on here a lot of people would rather ignore it and argue and insult each other!
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Extratropical Cyclone 05P (Vania) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 15/0900Z

%u2022TC Warning Text
%u2022TC Warning Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022Multispectral Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Vince) Warning #07
Issued at 15/1500Z

%u2022TC Warning Text
%u2022TC Warning Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022IR Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone 07P (Zelia) Warning #04
Issued at 15/1500Z

%u2022TC Warning Text
%u2022TC Warning Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022IR Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Issued at 15/0730Z

%u2022TCFA Text
%u2022TCFA Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022Multispectral Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin


Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories:


%u2022ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)
- ABPW10 Text
- Satellite Image

%u2022ABIO10 (Indian Ocean)
- ABIO10 Text
- Satellite Image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
617. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (10U)
11:00 AM EST January 16 2011
==========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 17.5S 156.8E, or 1720 km northwest of Norfolk Island and 1070 km east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 23 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 160.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.6S 163.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 32.7S 169.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 40.7S 175.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================

Eye pattern with LG surround and OW centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT 4.5 and PT 5.0. FT based on DT.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified during late Saturday and into Sunday morning while moving in a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. Zelia has also begun to increase in speed this morning with the development of an upper trough across the western Coral Sea, allowing northwesterly mid level steering to develop.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
."Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....


...a Cylcone"
yep there is one out there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting JFLORIDA:
but the world glacier monitoring service has moved so here is the new link:




Where's the CRU data, which formed the basis for the IPCC report?
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."Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....


...a Cylcone"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
611. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I agree. But it is also people watching attacks happen that they knew were wrong, but doing nothing about it as long as it didn't happen to them.



I'd rather look at all the stuff being missed while others are all engrossed in attacks..

Zelia has an eye. Click to watch swirling loop.. (this tends to sooth most here)


Michael~ Yeah I've noticed the SOI. Climo leans toward a warming for what ever that is worth. Seems the last 2 weeks (espi & reg 1.2) has weighed the for & against towards an enso warming.
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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I agree. But it is also people watching attacks happen that they knew were wrong, but doing nothing about it as long as it didn't happen to them.



In Anthropology, we call that "the survival technique"; not exactly a virtue, but part of human nature. But what you said hold a lot of merit. There are many people on here with whom I disagree, but have often times come to their defense in an unwarranted attack. However, I am probably as guilty of not coming to someone's defense as most others.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Swamp! Old time lurker just popped his head. How are the waters by you? Been a long time.


Been good here- hope you as well? Sorry, just had to pop in with another lame attempt at humor. The other "lamecasters" didn't jump on that one, so I couldn't resist. :))
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Quoting swampliliy:


I was writing about the First Peloponnesian War. :))

Howdy Groth, et al! :))


Yo, Swamp! Old time lurker just popped his head. How are the waters by you? Been a long time.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!


I was writing about the First Peloponnesian War. :))

Howdy Groth, et al! :))
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!


Not fair..."over my head" statement!
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Now wait a minute here...I think I decided I'm older than you , so therefore, you cannot be too old to fight !! Just get your second wind and a cup of hot chocolate.:}


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!
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Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
I 2nd your request for civility. Unfortunately I don't remember any good old days. Yes the names change, but it is the nature of the blog that when we are anonymous we are much ruder. I find it highly offensive how many use the T word (Troll) freely yet don't realize that it is in the same league as the N word. They themselves are trolls for using that word, yet the Blog Elders rarely call them out for this highly offensive language.


I don't like that either. However, I can never recall you being rude, regardless of the anonymity. That is still not excusable, but guess understandable for other's behavior.
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Quoting Grothar:


I think they do, too. I still get WU mail from some of the former bloggers. They just don't want to bother with all the nonsense. I am just too old to fight. Keep calling out to them EYES, maybe they will answer your call.


Now wait a minute here...I think I decided I'm older than you , so therefore, you cannot be too old to fight !! Just get your second wind and a cup of hot chocolate.:}
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Ya know Grothar, I really think that a lot of the people that use to blog are still lurking...or at least I sure hope so...maybe they will come back on. Some of this "high Scale" talk scares some folks off.....I know a lot of it is over my head...but I'm too old to be intimidated and I'm always wanting to learn something new, so I just weave in and out. "Come on back ya'll, ya hear"


I think they do, too. I still get WU mail from some of the former bloggers. They just don't want to bother with all the nonsense. I am just too old to fight. Keep calling out to them EYES, maybe they will answer your call.
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WOW Xcool....this looks like some new stuff ! I like these visuals !! Thank you...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
596. xcool



ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
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Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.


Ya know Grothar, I really think that a lot of the people that use to blog are still lurking...or at least I sure hope so...maybe they will come back on. Some of this "high Scale" talk scares some folks off.....I know a lot of it is over my head...but I'm too old to be intimidated and I'm always wanting to learn something new, so I just weave in and out. "Come on back ya'll, ya hear"
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting hydrus:
This is a good post.


Either that or stick my tongue to a frozen flagpole. How you doing, hydrus? Weather finally getting nice here again.
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Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.
This is a good post....And very true....:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


So do I. I need to be here less I think. I get in the habit of checking in too much when I have computer work to do and since I am working on a article and a talk proposal and the talk itself I am doing a lot now.

Concepts and issues seem to leak both ways also.


Oh No ! Cant do that, just joke around sometimes...it does help, laughter that is..I know it's therapy for me. Dont let that A personality and high IQ get in your way of fun. :)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
..."I Triple Dog Dare ya.."


Boy rescued after getting tongue stuck on icy pole

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on January 12, 2011 at 10:18 AM

WOODWARD, Okla. %u2013 (AP) In a scene straight from the movie "A Christmas Story," an 8-year-old Oklahoma boy got his tongue stuck to a metal pole after he licked it on a dare.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting JFLORIDA:


I dont know I really enjoy the winter here.


Well, cant say I like the heat either....but I will say.....I have a lot of respect for the sincere passion you and Nea and a few others have for your beliefs. I just worry about your blood pressure sometimes....
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


He may yet be among us.

311. twincomanche 10:46 PM EST on January 14, 2011

Off to bed however the question remains, I asked if this was the X files, then Twilight Zone? I guess what I should have asked if this is the three stooges? I really like discussions about the weather, global warming a little less, insults not at all. You people have chased off a lot of good weather people. Stop it.

Been here a long time but banned for saying something bad about admin so I am now a newbie.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I think the discussion in the summer is even more unreasonable. Very little sourced and lots of bickering about wobbles basically.


Come on JFL...some of us love those wobbles...LOL
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I think the discussion in the summer is even more unreasonable. Very little sourced and lots of bickering about wobbles basically.

Boy, do you have that right. Between the nowcasters, the doomcasters, the fearcasters, the upcasters, the herecasters, the downcasters, and all the rest, it's amazing how much good tropical weather science gets discussed.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13466
Also, I'd ignore the following chart and others like it; they are evidence of nothing.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13466
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


Stick around...gonna get better...:)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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