At least 611 dead in Brazilian floods: Brazil's deadliest natural disaster in history
Torrential rains inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday and Wednesday, triggering flash floods and mudslides that have claimed at least 611 lives. Rainfall amounts of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) fell in just a few hours in the hardest-hit regions, Teresopolis and Nova Friburgo. Many more people are missing, and the death toll is expected to go much higher once rescuers reach remote villages that have been cut off from communications. The death toll makes the January 2011 floods Brazil's worst single-day natural disaster in its history. Brazil suffers hundreds of deaths each year due to flooding and mudslides, but the past 12 months have been particularly devastating. Flooding and landslides near Rio in April last year killed 246 people and did about $13 billion in damage, and at least 85 people perished last January during a similar event.
Figure 1. Flooding at Sao Jose do Vale do Vale do Rio Preto in Brazil, photographed on Thursday, January 13, 2011.
Role of near-record sea surface temperatures in Brazil's flood
This week's heavy rains occurred when a storm system crossing from west to east over southern Brazil drew in a moist southerly flow air off the Atlantic Ocean over southern Brazil at the surface. At higher levels, the storm drew in very moist air from the Amazon. Sea surface temperatures along the Brazilian coast are at near-record warm levels, which likely contributed to the heavy rains. Record rains are more likely when sea surface temperatures over the nearby moisture source regions are at record high levels. This occurs because increased amounts of water vapor evaporate into the atmosphere from a warm ocean compared to a cold one, due to the extra motion and energy of the hotter water molecules. According to an analysis I did of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre sea surface temperature data set, December 2010 sea surface temperatures in the 5x5 degree region of Earth's surface along the Brazilian shore nearest the disaster area, 20S to 25S and 45W to 40W, were the second warmest on record since 1900. Temperatures were 1.05°C (1.9°F) above average in this region last month. Only 2007, with a 1.21°C departure from average, had warmer December ocean temperatures.
Meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart, with the Brazilian private weather forecasting company Metsul, wrote in his blog today, "Heavy rains early this year coincide with the strong warming of the Atlantic along the coasts of southern and southeastern Brazil. With waters up to 2°C warmer than average in some places, there is a major release of moisture in the atmosphere essential for the formation of storms."
Figure 2. Newspaper front page story in Brazil after the March 18, 1967 flooding disaster, Brazil's previous deadliest single-day natural disaster. Image credit: Metsul.
Brazil's previous worst natural disaster: the March 18, 1967 flood
The previous worst natural disaster in Brazilian history occurred on March 18, 1967 when a tsunami-like flood of water, mud and rocks swept down a hillside in the coastal city of Caraguatatuba, near Sao Paulo, killing 300 - 500 people. According to meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart with the private Brazilian weather company Metsul, a rainguage at nearby Sao Sebastao measured 115 mm (4.5") on March 17, and 420 mm (17") on March 18. Hackbart puts the death toll from the 1967 disaster at 300 - 500, and refers to it as Brazil's deadliest single-day natural disaster in history. Heavy rains at other locations in Brazil that month caused additional mudslides and flooding deaths, and Wikipedia lists the total death toll for the Brazil March 1967 floods at 785.
I looked at the sea surface temperatures for March 1967 to see if unusually warm ocean waters may have contributed to that year's flooding disaster. Sea surface temperatures in the 5x5 degree region of Earth's surface nearest the disaster site (20S to 25S, 50W to 45W) were 0.24°C (0.4°F) above average, which is not significantly different from normal. So, we can get record rains and flooding when sea surface temperatures are near normal, and it is possible that this week's catastrophe was not significantly impacted by the exceptionally warm water near the coast. However, heating up the oceans loads the dice in favor of extreme rainfall events, and makes it more likely we will have an unprecedented flood. If we look at the departure of temperature from average for the moisture source regions of the globe's four most extreme flooding disasters over the past 12 months, we find that these ocean temperatures ranked 2nd or 3rd warmest, going back through 111 years of history:
January 2011 Brazilian floods: 2nd warmest SSTs on record, +1.05°C (20S to 25S, 45W to 40W)
November 2010 Colombia floods: 3rd warmest SSTs on record, +0.65°C (10N to 0N, 80W to 75W)
December 2010 Australian floods: 3rd warmest SSTs on record, +1.05°C (10S to 25S, 145E to 155E)
July 2010 Pakistani floods: 2nd warmest SSTs on record, +0.95°C (Bay of Bengal, 10N to 20N, 80E to 95E)
The size of the ocean source region appropriate to use for these calculations is uncertain, and these rankings will move up or down by averaging in a larger or smaller region of ocean. For example, if one includes an adjacent 5x5 degree area of ocean next to Brazil's coast that may have also contributed moisture to this week's floods, the SSTs rank as 7th warmest in the past 111 years, instead of 2nd warmest. It would take detailed modeling studies to determine just how much impact these near-record sea surface temperatures had on the heavy rains that occurred, and what portion of the ocean served as the moisture source region.
Figure 3. Predicted total precipitation amounts in South America for the 7-day period ending at 7am EST January 21, 2011, as forecast by the 06Z run of the GFS Ensemble model made January 14, 2011. Image credit: Florida State University.
More rain in the forecast
The coast of Brazil is embedded in a warm, moist tropical airmass that is expected to continue to bring heavy rains over he Rio de Janeiro area for at least the next week. Heavy rains in excess of five inches in the next seven days (Figure 3) are predicted by the GFS Ensemble computer model for the disaster region, just north of Rio de Janeiro. The additional heavy rains are likely to cause more life-threatening mudslides and floods.
2010 tied for warmest year in Earth's history
Earth's warmest year in history occurred in 2010, NASA reported this week. The globe's temperature beat the previous record set in 2005 by just .01°C, so we should consider 2010 and 2005 tied for the warmest year on reecord. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also announced this week that 2010 was tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures during 2010 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. When the planet stops producing record weather catastrophes to blog about, I'll discuss the 2010 global temperature record in more detail.
Anniversary of the Haitian earthquake
Yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of the great Haitian earthquake of 2010. I want to thank all of you who offered donations to such great charities as the Lambi Fund of Haiti and Portlight.org. The people of Haiti need our continued financial support and prayers in the difficult rebuilding years to come.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index
Health experts are concerned about homeowners cleaning-up after the floods, with several people coming down with a mystery illness. Five people are being treated in Queensland hospitals, and have been tested for infectious diseases, believed to be flood-related. 'People need to be properly protected while wading through floodwaters, as they could be exposed to bacteria and viruses', says Queensland Health.
By the way...
Is there something wrong with this picture btw? No strict punishment is part of the problem with all the troubled missbehaved kids/young adults out there.
I like Nea's observations and philosophy:
"This forum, like most other great ones, is what the members make of it. At times the talk is of tropical storms. At other times, it's of the climate. At still other times, severe weather somewhere in the world. Or someone's birthday. Or a departed member. Or philosophy. Or lame attempts at humor. Or endless movie quotes. Or football discussions. Or seeing who can post the most 80s/90s music videos. Or whatever. The thing is, this forum doesn't exist as passive entertainment; if you don't like the mainstream of the current discussion, you're completely free to add your own $.02 about anything within bounds that tickles your fancy. But don't be upset if the previous dialog continues to be woven around and through the topic you started; after all, you wouldn't IRL wade into the middle of a ten-way conversation and insist that everyone change the topic because it wasn't to your liking, would you?"
from what I'm seeing from the models, the HPC might want to adjust its QPF upwards a bit across Florida. The last few forecasts have had the tendency to have a strong "La Nina bias". Which I have to admit, up until the last few weeks, its been terribly dry, but ever since the last week of December, every system has brought heavier rain than forecast, because forecasters assumed the models were overdoing it.
However, they may have to learn again on monday that the pattern has changed :)
yeah, I'm glad to see things have settled down here recently. However, I got almost guarantee I'd win a bet that by this summer these blogs will get down right stupid. I think gambling is foolish, but just saying, its that predictable. I sometimes believe people come in during hurricane season just to cause trouble who don't give a crap about weather science.
Heck that occurs year round, too. It just gets that much worse during hurricane season.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (10U)
5:00 PM EST January 16 2011
==========================================
At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (957 hPa) located at 19.0S 158.7E, or 1460 km northwest of Norfolk Island and 890 km west northwest of Noumea has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 24 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.8S 162.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 27.3S 165.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 38.3S 171.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 51.1S 175.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
========================
Eye pattern with B surround and LG centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT and PT both suggest 5.0. FT based on DT.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours while moving in a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. Zelia has also increased in speed during today with the development of an upper trough across the western Coral Sea, allowing northwesterly mid level steering to develop.
Zelia will begin to move over cooler sea surface temperatures south of New Caledonia on Monday and as a result should begin to weaken during the day.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 14:00 PM UTC by Fiji Meteorological Services..
----------
Koalas, kangaroos victims of Aussie floods
By Eric Bernaudeau
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 13:44:00 01/16/2011
- East Asia
BRISBANE - Snakes clung to floating debris, crocodiles lurked near homes and sharks swam the streets in Australia's epic floods -- but many more animals died in the deluge, experts say.
The devastating floods that smashed through the nation's northeast would have drowned wombats in their burrows, trapped and starved kangaroos in waterlogged paddocks, and deprived many other creatures of food and habitat.
The rushing waters, which swept away koalas, lizards and frogs and seethed with snakes, could also have a long-lasting impact on the country's unique wildlife, the Australian Veterinary Association has warned.
"The immediate thing is that many would have died," wildlife expert Robert Johnson told AFP.
"But the long-term thing is that the ones that would have survived, they don't have much of a habitat."
Many animals -- particularly young kangaroos and wallabies -- will likely die over the coming months after falling prey to parasites as they deal with the stresses of their resting and feeding places being wiped out, he said.
The dirty brown floodwaters would have also washed away eggs laid by turtles along the Queensland coast and threatened the habitats of frogs -- meaning numbers will be profoundly reduced this year.
Read more:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20110116-314771/Koalas-kangaroos-victims-of-Au ssie-floods
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (09U)
0:00 AM FST January 17 2011
=====================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (957 hPa) located at 20.6S 160.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots and is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position GOOD based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
25 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northern semi-circle, within 100 NM in southeast quadrant, and 60 NM in the southwest quadrant
Additional Information
========================
Organization remains good, irregular eye persist but has become cloud filled in the last 3 hours. Outflow good to west and south but inhibited elsewhere. System is being steered southeastward by a deep layer mean northwesterly regime. Cyclone is accelerating into a moderately sheared environment and cooler sea surface temperatures.
Dvorak assessment based on LG eye with black SURR, yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.
Most global models eventually move the cyclone southeastward.
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 24.2S 163.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 28.1S 166.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:00 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services had "VANIA" a 65 knots hurricane for a short time.
They are doing what they can to save as many as possible. Wie geht's meine Freundin?
Hi, Grothar. Sehr gut, thank you. Bright sunday in Germany, inspite of some (regionally severe) flooding of the rivers. I've read the story of your grandgrandgrandfather (or something) some days ago. Interesting! So far for now. I have to go visiting my parents.
There was a nice little article on Salon.com about this yesterday.
On the coal industry's unwillingness to reach a compromise with the EPA that might have kept alive that permit: "I think [the coal] industry...is used to getting its way. During the entire Bush administration, the eight years of the Bush administration, they did things the way they wanted to do things. So there is some bluster in this -- you don't mess around with us, we're in charge here. But this is a not, how shall we put it, a dynamic industry, in the sense of innovation and change. They want to do things their way, they want to do things the old-fashioned way, they don't want to change, and they don't believe they need to. This is an industry that is used to getting by on political muscle and not on compromise."
another day of cold here 13.8f with chills of -6.2f we could fall to 0f tonight with chills of - 10f or lower before a quick short rebound on late mon early tuseday
Viewing: 701 - 727
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index