Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Record snows hit New England; Brazilian floods kill 350; Brisbane underwater
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:16 PM GMT on January 13, 2011 +4
The Northeast U.S. is digging out today from the winter's third major snowstorm, and the nation's South continues to deal with travel disruptions caused by the nasty coasting of ice, snow and sleet the storm left behind early this week. Yesterday's Nor'easter has exited into Canada, and the storm is over for the U.S. It was a pretty average Nor'easter as far as intensity goes--the storm's central pressure bottomed out at 982 mb, and just the Massachusetts coast was subject to high winds that merited blizzard warnings. The storm did generate one hurricane-force wind gust--Provincetown airport on the tip of Cape Cod had sustained winds at 43 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 6:35am EST yesterday, and a personal weather station at Humarock Beach in Scituate, southeast of Boston, recorded a wind gust of 64 mph at 5:51am EST yesterday.


Figure 1. A bit of work today needed before one can step out of the door in Southborough, Massachusetts! Image credit: wunderphotographer Megmdp.

But what was remarkable about the January Nor'easter of 2011 were its snow amounts. This rather ordinary-strength Nor'easter managed to assemble the perfect mix of conditions needed to transport moisture to a region of the storm highly favorable for heavy snow formation. Many heavy snow bands with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour formed over New England, with some of these bands intense enough to generate lightning and thunder. Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont all came within an inch of setting all-time state 24-hour snowfall records yesterday. North Haven, Connecticut received 29.5", falling just short of the 30.2" 24-hour snowfall record for the state, set at Fairfield in February 2006. Savoy, Massachusetts received 34.5", falling just short of that state's all-time 24-hour snowfall record, the 36" recorded at Milton in February 1997. Wilmington, Vermont got 36" in yesterday's storm, just missing the state record of 37", set at Peru in March 1984. The capital of Connecticut, Hartford, had its greatest snowstorm in history yesterday, with 24". The old record was 23.5", set in a February 1899 storm.

Some selected storm total snowfall amounts, taken from the latest NOAA storm summary:

New York City, NY 9.1"
Albany, NY 13.2"
Worcester, MA 21.1"
Boston, MA 14.6"
Augusta, ME 14.5"
Portland, ME 9.2"
Concord, NH 22"
Somerset, PA 15"
Philadelphia, PA 5.2"
Providence, RI 9.5"
Brattleboro, VT 19"
Elkin, WV 10"
Danbury, CT 17.9"
Wilmington, DE 4.3"

According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest blog post titled, "Snowstorms in the South: A Historical Perspective", the 8.9" that fell on Huntsville, Alabama from this week's storm was that city's third heaviest snow on record. The post has a nice summary of the remarkable heavy snow storms that have hit the South in the past.


Figure 2. Flooding at São José do Vale do Rio Preto in Brazil photographed on Thursday, January 13, 2011.

Brazilian floods, landslides kill at least 350
The globe's parade of massive flooding disasters in recent months continued yesterday in Brazil, where heavy rains of up to 10 inches in 24 hours inundated the region about 60 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. At least 350 are dead and 50 people missing, and the death toll is expected to go much higher once rescuers reach remote villages that have been cut off from communications. Brazil suffers hundreds of deaths each year due to flooding and mudslides, but the past 12 months have been particularly devastating. Flooding and landslides near Rio in April last year killed 246 people and did about $13 billion in damage, and at least 85 people perished last January during a similar event.


Figure 3. A woman trapped on the roof of her car awaits rescue during the Toowoomba flash flood on Monday. Image credit: Wikipedia.

New floods ravage Australia's 3rd largest city
Flood waters swept today into Brisbane, Australia's 3rd largest city, inundating 14,400 homes and businesses, partially submerging another 17,200, and cutting power to 118,000, as the Brisbane River peaked at its highest level since 1974. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, who has called the recent floods in Queensland the greatest natural disaster in their history, said, "What I'm seeing looks more like a war zone in some places. All I could see was their rooftops...underneath every single one of those rooftops is a horror story. We are facing a reconstruction effort of post-war proportions." Much of Brisbane's infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, including 55,000 miles of roads. The Port of Brisbane, one of Australia's busiest, has been closed because of debris, and the city's largest sports stadium is under several feet of water.

The search for bodies continues in Toowoomba, about 60 miles west of Brisbane, where freak rains of 6 inches in just 30 minutes triggered a flash flood that killed 12 and left 61 missing on Monday. The flood waters from the Toowoomba disaster poured into the Brisbane River, contributing to its rampage through Brisbane yesterday. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reported that only scattered light rains less than 1/3" fell in the Brisbane area over the past 24 hours, and no further significant rains are forecast in the Brisbane area until Tuesday next week, so the worst of the flooding is now over for Queensland. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the December - January floods in Queenland are the most significant flooding event in Australia since at least 1974. In 2010, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM notes, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 22, and damage estimates are now as high as $20 billion. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.

2010 tied for warmest year in Earth's history
Earth's warmest year in history occurred in 2010, NASA reported yesterday. The globe's temperature beat the previous record set in 2005 by just .01°C, so we should consider 2010 and 2005 tied for the warmest year on record. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also announced yesterday that 2010 was tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures during 2010 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. I'll have a full blog post on the subject Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
storm car burried (slimfast)
on a lowell mass street 1/12/11 taken off hampshire street lowell mass our streets are buried in snow we have 24-36" of snow we had unsafe intersecting roads every where un safe driving also large buildings with flat roofs are unsafe many colapsed buildings
storm car burried
Brilliance..2 (suzi46)
a brilliant mid-Winter's day..blue skies and sunshine on the clear ice of the brooks creating wonderful images..
Brilliance..2
How Many Cars? (stoneygirl)
Can you tell how many cars are under all that? We had a whopping 2 plus FEET of snow today and the snow drifts were upwards of 3 and 4 feet. Gotta love winter.
How Many Cars?
Categories: Flood Winter Weather
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451. NRAamy 12:46 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
I like Spam....especially Spam sandwiches....on a cold day.... with some tomato soup....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
452. RipplinH2O 12:47 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Dr M cites the most recent reviewed literature.

Look into grays climate contributions and history before you make comparisons.
Not making a comparison. Simply pointing out that dismissing anyone only because they are not a climate scientist is probably casting a net wider than you intended...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
453. Ossqss 12:48 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:
392 thanks - good link.

OSS the volcano climate connection is explored in real scientific literature in excruciating detail.

Do us a favor.


LOL, no wonder you are out of sorts. Volcano's? Are you referring to your temper for it sure was not what the paper was about.

Same thing, different day, same folks telling you how to think and to obey their commands. Just Borg-tastic on here once again. This blog used to be fun before the ideologues came along pounding their hammers.

Note, pay attention to the commodities market. Food prices are getting ready to spike and we will most certainly see food riots as we did a few years ago :( Cotton at a 147 year high? WTH

Good luck, outta this place >>>>>>>>



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
455. oracle28 12:50 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Just think how cold the planet would be without man to heat it up.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 584
456. RipplinH2O 12:52 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
...wait for it
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
457. calusakat 12:53 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:


I wasn't asking for "determination of quilt"; I was responding to one who claimed that AAAS found all sorts of hanky-panky after ClimateGate, so I asked for proof of that, and further stated that I could produce tons of AAAS statements stating the opposite.

This is a fast-moving discussion; you're gonna have to keep up. ;-)


Excuse me?

You wrote...'the whole manufactured "Climategate" thing has been proven to be nothing more than a desperate witch-hunt by the contrarian community'

Those are your words, not mine.

Stop with the REDIRECTION.

Reading that one article proves to me that they, AAAS, are fully engulfed in the AGW fraud.

It seems almost hilarious how you can switch between two different presentations of what Climategate is supposedly about, almost within the same conversation.


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
458. Patrap 12:55 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    


Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds. Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but human activity does not significantly affect water vapor concentrations except at local scales, such as near irrigated fields. According to the Environmental Health Center of the National Safety Council, water vapor constitutes as much as 2% of the atmosphere.

The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per unit volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. This positive feedback does not result in runaway global warming because it is offset by other processes[clarification needed] that induce negative feedbacks, which stabilizes average global temperatures

This graph image should be recreated using vector graphics as an SVG file.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
459. TomTaylor 12:55 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting MichaelSTL:




Global precipitation in 2010 was well above the 1961–1990 average, ranking as the wettest on record since 1900.


See also: An introduction to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water

(warmer air can hold more moisture, leading to more extremes in precipitation, not just heavier rain, but more severe droughts - even if average precipitation increases since evaporation doubles for a 10°C rise in temperature)


And Warmer SSTs lead to greater evaporation, leading to greater quantities of water in the atmosphere.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3904
460. spathy 12:55 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
ouch double wammy!
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490
464. Patrap 12:58 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Added On January 13, 2011
New and old residents of Brisbane find aid and support in evacuation shelters. CNN's Phil Black reports.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
465. Skyepony (Mod) 12:59 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting RipplinH2O:
True, he is but a PhD Met, just like the host of this blog


That is not true the host of this blog has a Ph.D. degree in air pollution meteorology.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29350
466. RipplinH2O 1:00 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


No of course not - Ive read grays commentary. HE doesn't care about climate reattach.
Huh? When did the climate deattach?
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
468. TaylorSelseth 1:01 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting oracle28:
Just think how cold the planet would be without man to heat it up.
Oddly enough, according to the book Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum the activities of pre-industrial humans, mainly rice farming (= methane) and deforestation raised the level of GHGs enough to prevent a return to glaciation.

Unfortunately now we are emitting way to much GHGs.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
469. Patrap 1:01 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    



The different measures are sometimes used by different countries in asserting various policy/ethical positions to do with climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 94).

This use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.

Emissions may be measured over long time periods. This measurement type is called historical or cumulative emissions. Cumulative emissions give some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs (IEA, 2007, p. 199).

Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against a base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995) (Grubb, 2003, pp. 146, 149).A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year.

Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population (World Bank, 2010, p. 370). Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 10.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
471. RipplinH2O 1:03 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting Skyepony:


That is not true the host of this blog has a Ph.D. degree in air pollution meteorology.
I sit corrected Ma'am. Based on past conversations here, I thought Jeff's PhD was Met. Thanks...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
475. PalmBeachWeather 1:07 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting NRAamy:
I like Spam....especially Spam sandwiches....on a cold day.... with some tomato soup....

I tolerate Spam.....I stock up every year with Spam living in Palm Beach county...I understand there is even a Spam museum somewhere in Minnesota...One of my bucket lists.......NOT
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
476. RipplinH2O 1:11 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Look a spell correcter word insert - redirection - global warming is a lie.
I'm not sure what you just said but my grandkids often tell me I don't "get stuff". All I was saying is Dr. Gray should not be dismissed based on what his PhD is or is not. There's a lot of old folks with PhD's that have both good and not so good theories. The peer review process ain't exactly age neutral either...(afterthought: just my opinion, don't ask for "proof", as you regularly do)
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477. sunlinepr 1:13 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447
478. PalmBeachWeather 1:27 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

You've lost me, friend. I simply cannot keep up with your dizzying intellect and brilliant rhetoric. And with that, I shall leave you to your thoughts...

Or in the words of the world's smartest man living today...Professor Irwin Corey
"Marriage is like a bank account, You put it in, you take it out,...You lose interest"
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
479. muddertracker 1:32 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
I just had a really "bad boss day" and I am sooo happy to be on the blog right now! Weather makes me happy :)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126
480. spathy 1:35 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting MichaelSTL:
I don't think anybody has noticed this yet, a new study that just come out that has major, MAJOR implications - and based on actual data from past climate changes, not some computer model (since many just brush off predictions as being from a model):

Science stunner: On our current emissions path, CO2 levels in 2100 will hit levels last seen when the Earth was 29°F (16°C) hotter

Paleoclimate data suggests CO2 "may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models"

What was Earth%u2019s climate like at the time of past elevated CO2? Consider one example when CO2 was ~1000 ppmv at ~35 million years ago (Ma) (2). Temperature data (5, 6) for this time period indicate that tropical to subtropical sea surface temperatures were in the range of 35° to 40°C (versus present-day temperatures of ~30°C) and that sea surface temperatures at polar latitudes in the South Pacific were 20° to 25°C (versus modern temperatures of %u223C5°C). The paleogeography of this time was not radically different from present-day geography, so it is difficult to argue that this difference could explain these large differences in temperature. Also, solar physics findings show that the Sun was less luminous by ~0.4% at that time (7). Thus, an increase of CO2 from %u223C300 ppmv to 1000 ppmv warmed the tropics by 5° to 10°C and the polar regions by even more (i.e., 15° to 20°C).

What can we learn from Earth%u2019s past concerning the climate%u2019s sensitivity to greenhouse gas increases? Accounting for the increase in CO2 and the reduction in solar irradiance, the net radiative forcing%u2014the change in the difference between the incoming and outgoing radiation energy%u2013of the climate system at 30 to 40 Ma was 6.5 to 10 W m%u22122 with an average of %u223C8 W m%u22122. A similar magnitude of forcing existed for other past warm climate periods, such as the warm mid-Cretaceous of 100 Ma (8). Using the proxy temperature data and assuming, to first order, that latitudinal temperature can be fit with a cosine function in latitude (9), the global annual mean temperature at this time can be estimated to be ~31°C, versus 15°C during pre-industrial times (around 1750) (10). Thus, Earth was ~16°C warmer at 30 to 40 Ma. The ratio of change in surface temperature to radiative forcing is called the climate feedback factor (11). The data for 30 to 40 Ma indicate that Earth%u2019s climate feedback factor was ~2°C W%u22121 m%u22122. Estimates (1, 11) of the climate feedback factor from climate model simulations for a doubling of CO2 from the present-day climate state are ~0.5 to 1°C W%u22121 m%u22122. The conclusion from this analysis%u2014resting on data for CO2 levels, paleotemperatures, and radiative transfer knowledge%u2014is that Earth%u2019s sensitivity to CO2 radiative forcing may be much greater than that obtained from climate models


And no, that doesn't mean a nice warm fuzzy world where people can live happily ever after!

Earth Could Become Too Hot for Humans

"We found that a warming of 12 degrees Fahrenheit (roughly 7 degrees Celsius) would cause some areas of the world to surpass the wet-bulb temperature limit, and a 21-degree warming would put half of the world's population in an uninhabitable environment," Huber said.


Never mind crop failures and damage due to extreme weather long before this point is reached - and this didn't even consider the latest study results (and what additional feedbacks will they discover next?!)


Please excuse my ignorance.
YOU All Have done so many times in the past.
(Thank You)
Could not the same conclusion from above be.....
Earths natural warming cycle increased the co2?
Would that not explain the temp and co2 discrepancy's?
In the past at least.
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490
481. RipplinH2O 1:35 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
And in the for what it's worth file: before Nea spams me again on my trite "wait for it" comment 45 minutes ago, I can't believe one of you computer literate people did not post Monty Python's a. spam song or, b. the "I don't like Spam" gig after the spam references by Patrap and NRAamy just prior...so disappointed
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485. sunlinepr 1:54 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting MichaelSTL:
It appears that a sudden stratospheric warming may be starting:



Interesting post
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486. DEKRE 1:54 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting spathy:


Please excuse my ignorance.
YOU All Have done so many times in the past.
(Thank You)
Could not the same conclusion from above be.....
Earths natural warming cycle increased the co2?
Would that not explain the temp and co2 discrepancy's?
In the past at least.


You are perfectly right - you seem to be a rarity on this blog, a reasonable person.

We are in a natural warming period which started at the end of the last glaciation period and we are still far below typical interglacial temperatures. What we are doing which our CO2 emissions is accelerate the process.

Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
487. PcolaDan 1:55 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Seems to be the norm in here when it comes to politics and global warning.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
489. spathy 1:56 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
No, we are increasing the CO2 in the air, through fossil fuel consumption. The rise of CO2 in the atmosphere is not a natural cycle.


I was talking about the past.
Could it be that the natural warming cycle the Earth was in at that time caused the increase in co2?
If not?
What caused the increase in co2?
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490
491. RipplinH2O 2:12 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:
Seems to be the norm in here when it comes to politics and global warning.

If I use that, do I have to quote you? Legit question, and I'll send money if required but THAT sums up SO much...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
492. spathy 2:12 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Ummm... NO!



God, when WILL people stop posting unsupported assertions!!!

Michael
What is the light blue line in your graph?
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490
496. bappit 2:15 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting spathy:

Michael
What is the light blue line in your graph?

Since the image comes from globalwarmingart.com I don't think he knows.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4385
497. Neapolitan 2:17 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
While you guys sit around and so pleasantly debate the merits of AGW what you seem to forget is that the vast majority of people don't know what you are talking about and don't care what will determine this debate. Right now they worry about jobs and who will win the superbowl. So while you turn blue in the face posting the same charts and graphs over and over remember this simple fact. No one is listening to you

So: ignorance is bliss? ;-)

Seriously, I hope that those concerned about finding a job are on Monster.com tweaking their resumes. And those worried about the Superbowl can visit NFL.com or ESPN.com for in depth analyses of teams and players. After all, I wouldn't visit any of those sites for climate information. Who would?
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498. Patrap 2:17 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
499. RipplinH2O 2:18 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
While you guys sit around and so pleasantly debate the merits of AGW what you seem to forget is that the vast majority of people don't know what you are talking about and don't care what will determine this debate. Right now they worry about jobs and who will win the superbowl. So while you turn blue in the face posting the same charts and graphs over and over remember this simple fact. No one is listening to you
But, but, but...that means nobody is going to post the Monty Python spam thing...dam!
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
500. sirmaelstrom 2:18 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
Quoting spathy:

Michael
What is the light blue line in your graph?


It is interesting isn't it? How when you take many proxies that don't really seem to correlate with each other--even though they're all temperature proxies--and average them all together, you get a nice middle-of-the-road line with very limited variation. Is it an accurate temperature estimate? I have to admit, I'm a bit skeptical.
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501. Patrap 2:19 AM GMT on January 14, 2011    
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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