Snow, ice paralyze South; Nor'easter aims at New England; deadly floods in Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on January 11, 2011

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Much of the nation's South remains paralyzed today by a major winter storm that left up to a foot of snow and dangerous ice accumulations in its wake. Six states have declared states of emergency, and travel is extremely hazardous in the affected region, including Atlanta, where at least five closures of major interstates occurred this morning due to severe icing. The storm began Sunday in northeast Texas and tracked eastward, bringing snow amounts as high as 7 - 8 inches to northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas, 9 - 11 inches to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Tennessee. As of 3am CST, the heaviest snow as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary occurred at Cashiers, North Carolina, 12.5 inches. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Wrightsville, which received 1.5" of ice. Aiken, South Carolina received 1" of ice, and numerous locations in South Carolina, Central Georgia, and Central Alabama received over 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4" were also reported in northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and western Arkansas. Dangerous travel conditions will persist across the affected region the rest of today, as temperatures will struggle to reach 40°.


Figure 1. Snow and ice at North Carolina's Charlotte airport caused travel delays yesterday, and thousands of flights were canceled Sunday and Monday across the Southeast U.S. due to the severe winter storm that hit the region. Image credit: wunderphotographer robb04047.

Major Nor'easter expected for New York City and Boston
Today's snow storm has pushed off the coast of North Carolina, and is expected to "bomb" into a classic Nor'easter off the coast of New England tonight through Wednesday. Up to a foot of snow is possible for New York City, Boston, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The heaviest snow--up to 16 inches--will likely fall across central Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut, western Rhode Island, and Long Island. Today's Nor'easter will not be as intense as the December 26 blizzard, however. The winds from today's storm are expected to remain less than 35 mph, resulting in only minor coastal flooding and an absence of blizzard conditions (frequent wind gusts over 35 mph or sustained winds over 35 mph, plus visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least three consecutive hours.)

Deadly flash flood hits Australia
Flood-weary Queensland, Australia suffered a new flooding disaster yesterday when freak rains of six inches fell in just 30 minutes near Toowoomba. The resulting flash flood killed nine people and left 59 missing. The flood waters poured into the Brisbane River, causing it to overflow, and significant flooding of low-lying areas in Brisbane, Australia's third largest city with some 2 million people, is expected on Thursday. As I discussed last week, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains. The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 19, and done $5 billion in damage. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.


Figure 2. Remarkable 5-minute YouTube video showing the sad fate of a row of parked cars when a nearby small stream experiences a flash flood, sweeping away dozens of the cars. A note to the wise: Two minutes into the video, we see a man enter the flash flood to save his car. He is successful, but his actions were extremely risky--most flash flood deaths occur when cars with people inside get swept away. I would not have attempted to save my car in that situation.

Jeff Masters

Snow on Poinsett Highway in Greenville (DevLady)
Snow on Poinsett Highway in Greenville
Sunny, warm South Carolina? Not! (kemnken)
Sunny, warm South Carolina?
Sunny, warm South Carolina? Not!
Icicles for Treats (dixiedaughter)
Icicles for Treats

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Interesting new update from Henry, may not be a big storm for NYC, still for Long Island though...

"I think the latest WRF has picked up on the stronger Ohio Valley Storm. Implications, the coastal gets shoved east and develops late in the game for NJ and NYC. Still a big storm for New England."
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Quoting Cochise111:
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it is replicable. Climate models can't replicate past weather much less the future. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."


Baseless, regurgitated, and often-repeated nonsense. As simple as that.
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/dessler-and-spencer-debate-cloud-feedback/
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Refreshing......,from the etiquette side of things.



Neither advance was front-page news. What’s really worth noting is that both developments are the result of that remarkable process called the scientific method, together with the relatively modern innovation called peer review.

Also, both involve something rarely seen these days: (mainly) civilized, constructive exchanges between researchers and statistics analysts whose public personae have been shaped as much through blogging and public appearances as basic science.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Listen to the Weather Underground Broadcast Network here!

Meteorologists Shaun and Tim will continue to keep you informed on the continuing cold, snowy Winter much of the East is having. Will it ever stop?

Also, some weird weather news has happened over the past few days, so listen to the show to understand everything! The Daily Downpour begins at 4:30 p.m. ET, 1:30 PT.
Listen here!

They will also be taking your phone calls at 415-983-2634.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
203. JeffMasters (Admin)
Regarding Antarctic temperatures, the latest revision of the historical data is interesting:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/on-warming-antarctica-clouds-and-peer-review/

Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful, we are all doing the best we can!

Jeff Masters
Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings and good day;

Levi made a personal observation. He did not name call, or describe, in a rather unprofessional way, what he thinks other peoples beliefs are. You mentioned that perhaps, and I quote: “Oh, and Dr, Masters ought to moderate comments - he doesn't have to put up with the cr@p that goes on.”

Your right. No member of this blog, including Levi, should be insulted either. Comments such as yours violate the community standards of this blog. Perhaps the moderators should enforce these standards on your comments. Resorting to personal attacks indicates one is perhaps too emotionally attached to an issue, and does nothing to boost ones credibility. As a member of this blog as well, I would ask for a little more civility when addressing the posts of other members. Take care, and have a better day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon


Jon, do you jockey a 15?
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201. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
6:00 AM FST January 12 2011
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (990 hPa) located at 19.1S 169.4E is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. 10 minute sustained winds close to the center is 25-30 knots. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Gale Force Winds
==============

Clockwise winds 30-35 knots within 80 to 240 NM away from the center in sectors from north through east to southwest

Low level circulation center is obscured by cirrus outflow. Deep convection displaced to the north of low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and developing elsewhere. Depression lies along a monsoonal trough and under a 250 HPA diffluent region. System lies under moderate to strong shear. TD 03F currently steered by northerly deep layer mean wind.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET=3.0, PT=2.5 and final dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

Most global models have picked up the system and slowly moves it south southwest with intensification.

The potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone remains HIGH.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Hi Aqua --- you guys are freezing up there! Keep asking my kid if he is warm enough.
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Quoting Levi32:


I hope you realize that even the GISS data set itself shows a trend that is essentially flat since 1980.



I'm not sure what data sets you're using Levi, but the ones available here from GISS don't seem to indicate that at all. Southern hemisphere surface temps are showing a definitive upward trend.

Do you have a reference to the specific data set you're using? There's a lot of data files on the GISS site and their FTP servers.
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Quoting Levi32:


Certainly. You can either get it at the GISS here or you can also get it here

Thanks Levi!
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hi zoo!!!

I am just lurking but I had to say

Hi ZOO!!
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Quoting MichaelSTL:
Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?



With the longer time series, a statistically significant trend now emerges. Not only is Antarctica losing land ice, the ice loss is accelerating at a rate of 26 Gigatonnes/yr2 (in other words, every year, the rate of ice loss is increasing by 26 Gigatonnes per year) It turns out that since 2006, East Antarctica has no longer been in mass balance but is in fact, losing ice mass (Chen 2009). This is a surprising result as East Antarctica has been considered stable because the region is so cold. This indicates the East Antarctic ice sheet is more dynamic than previously thought.


Wait a second - according to that chart, not only has the Antarctic ice mass reached zero, but its actually 700 Gt in the red!!!

Again, I'm assuming that there's an averaging period there (not shown).

Didn't see it on the ScepticalScience.com web site, either.
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We have Tropical Cyclone 05P east of the Coral Sea, northeast of New Caledonia.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting calusakat:


That means you are up to speed without breaking a sweat.

Welcome back!



That looks like one of those nasty Ostrich's at Lion Country Safari
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Quoting zoomiami:
good afternoon all - been a long time.

Have to tell you that I got a chuckle when I started reading -- its as if I never left -- the exact same conversation as 3 months ago!

Wanted to see what's up with all the snowy weather.


That means you are up to speed without breaking a sweat.

Welcome back!


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At least Antarctica has some higher latitude stations than the arctic does. Looking at just one station, the Amundsen-Scott station right at the South Pole, temperatures haven't trended a whole lot in any direction overall at the bottom of the earth since records began in the 1950s.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
191. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM UTC January 11 2011
=======================================

An area of convection (90B) located at 7.2N 83.7E, or 230 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated multispectral imagery shows building convection with some indication of cyclonic turning over low level circulation center. An 0411z ASCAT pass shows an elongated circulation, possibly two circulation centers, oriented northeast-southwest with 25 knot winds on the southern side and much weaker return winds on the northern side. A series of 89ghz microwave passes from 0730 to 0830z show what appears to be significant banding wrapping into the center, but surface organization is evident in ASCAT and an 0824z TRMM 36ghz pass don't support tight wrapping. The signature is being assessed as having a similar pattern, but not representing, tightly wrapped banding. Environmental analysis shows that the disturbance is south of the upper level ridge axis, under a diffluent upper level wih moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
"...More shear nonsense. Satellites have problems with measuring temperatures in high terrain and ice-covered areas. Here is a reconstruction based on surface data combined with satellite data (the satellite data after all needs to be calibrated to something)..."

Satellites, because of their orbits, cannot give us an accurate temp reading of EITHER pole.

So we have to base our readings on SURFACE readings, in both the Arctic and Antarctic.

What do the Arctic surface temperatures say?

Wait. There are none. So is that why GISS has to ESTIMATE the Arctic temperatures using weather stations 1200km away?

That's like giving someone the temp in Butte Montana using a Death Valley thermometer...
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SPC has a risk of Thunderstorms for the Northeast Coastline today. This is caused by the convection that will develop near the low, causing Thunderstorms in the snow. A great phenomenon to watch, wish I was there. This will also cause the liquid amounts to bust up, 1-2 feet of snow possible in the highest liquid amounts.

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Oh hell......Dr. Oz is on
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good afternoon all - been a long time.

Have to tell you that I got a chuckle when I started reading -- its as if I never left -- the exact same conversation as 3 months ago!

Wanted to see what's up with all the snowy weather.
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Quoting Xandra:

Lewi32, can I have the link to the data set please?


Certainly. You can either get it at the GISS here or you can also get it here
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Levi32:


I hope you realize that even the GISS data set itself shows a trend that is essentially flat since 1980.


Lewi32, can I have the link to the data set please?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I guess we'll find out. The economy is hurting Ave Maria as much as it's hurting the rest of the area--plus the place has to deal with rumors of bigotry and stuffiness. My guess is, though, that if and when money starts flowing, things will turn around for AM...

Oil Well Road sounds to back country....I vote to change the name.. Maybe, Reed Zone Highway........Yea, That's it
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Something interesting to note from Meteomadness (Henry Margusity, who nailed the Superstorm in December.)

"Models are totally missing the strength of the Ohio storm. Pressure right now is 1013 mb. Models have the pressure at 1016-1020 mb. Implications could mean the Ohio storm just drudges east down I-80 and picks up the coastal on the way."
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State-of-the-art seismological techniques applied to Apollo-era data suggest our moon has a core similar to Earth's.

Uncovering details about the lunar core is critical for developing accurate models of the moon's formation. The data sheds light on the evolution of a lunar dynamo -- a natural process by which our moon may have generated and maintained its own strong magnetic field.

The team's findings suggest the moon possesses a solid, iron-rich inner core with a radius of nearly 150 miles and a fluid, primarily liquid-iron outer core with a radius of roughly 205 miles. Where it differs from Earth is a partially molten boundary layer around the core estimated to have a radius of nearly 300 miles. The research indicates the core contains a small percentage of light elements such as sulfur, echoing new seismology research on Earth that suggests the presence of light elements -- such as sulfur and oxygen -- in a layer around our own core.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
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Quoting MichaelSTL:


People need to face reality:

Greenhouse effect

If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C. However, since the Earth reflects about 30%[4] (or 28%[5]) of the incoming sunlight, the planet's effective temperature (the temperature of a blackbody that would emit the same amount of radiation) is about −18 or −19 °C,[6][7] about 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 14 °C or 15 °C.[8] The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect.


Also, about Gore's movie (which I have never seen):

Al Gore’s movie (reviewed by a real climate scientist)

How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity.



Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth accurate?


According to a court in England, it's not:

"...in October 2007 the High Court in London had identified nine errors in his movie An Inconvenient Truth..."

Judge-attacks-errors-Al-Gores-alarmist-climate-change-film.
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Quoting Cochise111:
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it is replicable. Climate models can't replicate past weather much less the future. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."

Hey, Glenn Beck called. He'd like his tinfoil hat back ASAP... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Nea...Have to ask the latest on AveMaria.I see they have a Publix there now, (and I would think a Domino's Pizza) Is this going to be a total bust???

I guess we'll find out. The economy is hurting Ave Maria as much as it's hurting the rest of the area--plus the place has to deal with rumors of bigotry and stuffiness. My guess is, though, that if and when money starts flowing, things will turn around for AM...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
Quoting MichaelSTL:


More shear nonsense. Satellites have problems with measuring temperatures in high terrain and ice-covered areas. Here is a reconstruction based on surface data combined with satellite data (the satellite data after all needs to be calibrated to something):

Satellites Confirm Half-Century of West Antarctic Warming



The Antarctic Peninsula juts into the Southern Ocean, reaching farther north than any other part of the continent. The southernmost reach of global warming was believed to be limited to this narrow strip of land, while the rest of the continent was presumed to be cooling or stable.

Not so, according to a new analysis involving NASA data. In fact, the study has confirmed a trend suspected by some climate scientists.

The finding is the result of a novel combination of historical temperature data from ground-based weather stations and more recent data from satellites. Steig and colleagues used data from each record to fill in gaps in the other and to reconstruct a 50-year history of surface temperatures across Antarctica.


I hope you realize that even the GISS data set itself shows a trend that is essentially flat since 1980.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Neapolitan:

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)


as long as you have two straws, we're good to go.
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Can we please talk about the upcoming storm for the Northeast? I'd like to here someones input on it.
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Yuck....Bacon Ice Cream?
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170. Cochise111

11:40 AM PST on January 11, 2011
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it replicable. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."



careful..... Al Gore will sick ManBearPig on you.....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Nothing about AGW is "science." Science, by definition is not theory and it is replicable. Climate models can't replicate past weather much less the future. No two global warming proponents can agree on the same thing. These so-called scientists won't even release their raw data without a FOIA demand. When the FOIA is served upon them, they say the data was lost or no longer exists (East Anglia). This global warming wouldn't have any legs without data manipulation. We know for a fact almost every ground-based temperature station is misplaced, according to NOAA's own standards, resulting in temperatures stations recording artificial heat. I refuse to call degreed persons in the climate persuasion business "scientists" any longer. They should be called "manipulators," "shams," or "smoke and mirror theoreticians," but not "scientists."
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


okay, saying that global warming is the ONLY reason there is ice loss in the artic, but saying there are many reasons why the Antarctic sea ice is gaining. Is very unfair, and very unscientific.

I can go into really great scientific detail, if you like. But those who are certain the planet isn't warming will dismiss both the data and the assumptions as either flawed or fraudulent anyway--so what's the point? Know what I mean? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
167. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 09U
3:00 AM WST January 12 2011
========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.5E, or 1050 kilometers northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.3S 107.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.6S 109.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 113.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.6S 115.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================

Shear continues to inhibit the system's development with microwave imagery showing a well exposed LLCC. The shear is forecast to decrease due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with less than 0.75 degrees separation between the LLCC and the CDO giving a DT of 2.5.

The system has slowed and all models indicate it will recurve towards the southeast within the next 6 to 12 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the Pilbara coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Quoting Neapolitan:

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)

Always loved "Long Island Iced Tea" BUT, there is no tea in it, coloring comes from a shot of Coke
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Quoting aquak9:
Nea, would you care to share a cup of chamomile tea with me?

Works for me--so long as you don't mind if I drink mine with a chaser. Preferably something stronger than Irish coffee... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
good one, jeffs....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Nea...Have to ask the latest on AveMaria.I see they have a Publix there now, (and I would think a Domino's Pizza) Is this going to be a total bust???
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Satellite lower tropospheric temperature data which covers the vast majority of the southern pole also shows no significant trend since 1980. The graph of increasing temperatures in post #109 looks suspect based on contradictions from every data set I have looked at. This is why random graphs shouldn't be trusted on face-value without looking into the data.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Las Vegas 41 °F Overcast
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
but got attacked by my comments

just eaxactly how did your comments attack you?

They lit torches and got pitchforks, and went after him.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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