Snow, ice paralyze South; Nor'easter aims at New England; deadly floods in Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on January 11, 2011

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Much of the nation's South remains paralyzed today by a major winter storm that left up to a foot of snow and dangerous ice accumulations in its wake. Six states have declared states of emergency, and travel is extremely hazardous in the affected region, including Atlanta, where at least five closures of major interstates occurred this morning due to severe icing. The storm began Sunday in northeast Texas and tracked eastward, bringing snow amounts as high as 7 - 8 inches to northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas, 9 - 11 inches to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Tennessee. As of 3am CST, the heaviest snow as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary occurred at Cashiers, North Carolina, 12.5 inches. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Wrightsville, which received 1.5" of ice. Aiken, South Carolina received 1" of ice, and numerous locations in South Carolina, Central Georgia, and Central Alabama received over 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4" were also reported in northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and western Arkansas. Dangerous travel conditions will persist across the affected region the rest of today, as temperatures will struggle to reach 40°.


Figure 1. Snow and ice at North Carolina's Charlotte airport caused travel delays yesterday, and thousands of flights were canceled Sunday and Monday across the Southeast U.S. due to the severe winter storm that hit the region. Image credit: wunderphotographer robb04047.

Major Nor'easter expected for New York City and Boston
Today's snow storm has pushed off the coast of North Carolina, and is expected to "bomb" into a classic Nor'easter off the coast of New England tonight through Wednesday. Up to a foot of snow is possible for New York City, Boston, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The heaviest snow--up to 16 inches--will likely fall across central Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut, western Rhode Island, and Long Island. Today's Nor'easter will not be as intense as the December 26 blizzard, however. The winds from today's storm are expected to remain less than 35 mph, resulting in only minor coastal flooding and an absence of blizzard conditions (frequent wind gusts over 35 mph or sustained winds over 35 mph, plus visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least three consecutive hours.)

Deadly flash flood hits Australia
Flood-weary Queensland, Australia suffered a new flooding disaster yesterday when freak rains of six inches fell in just 30 minutes near Toowoomba. The resulting flash flood killed nine people and left 59 missing. The flood waters poured into the Brisbane River, causing it to overflow, and significant flooding of low-lying areas in Brisbane, Australia's third largest city with some 2 million people, is expected on Thursday. As I discussed last week, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. The ocean waters surrounding Australia were the warmest on record during 2010, and these exceptionally warm waters allowed much higher amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the atmosphere, helping fuel the heavy rains. The record warm ocean temperatures were due to a combination of global warming and the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 19, and done $5 billion in damage. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.


Figure 2. Remarkable 5-minute YouTube video showing the sad fate of a row of parked cars when a nearby small stream experiences a flash flood, sweeping away dozens of the cars. A note to the wise: Two minutes into the video, we see a man enter the flash flood to save his car. He is successful, but his actions were extremely risky--most flash flood deaths occur when cars with people inside get swept away. I would not have attempted to save my car in that situation.

Jeff Masters

Snow on Poinsett Highway in Greenville (DevLady)
Snow on Poinsett Highway in Greenville
Sunny, warm South Carolina? Not! (kemnken)
Sunny, warm South Carolina?
Sunny, warm South Carolina? Not!
Icicles for Treats (dixiedaughter)
Icicles for Treats

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358. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


It's not the global average temperature itself but the temperature distribution that is most important regarding the hurricane season. The pattern that will evolve during the latter part of this winter is still in the making.

is true
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Spring of 84,,above the Arctic circle is and remains the coldest season in me Life.

But dem Artic Aurora's was worth the Atlantic Boat ride..!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
356. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
12:00 PM FST January 12 2011
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category One (988 hPa) located at 19.2S 169.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots. Position POOR based on hourly multispectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Gale Force Winds
=================
northwest quadrant and within 240 miles of the center in sector from north through east to southwest

Additional Information
=======================
Low level circulation center is obscured by cirrus outflow. Central dense overcast pulsating under diurnal influence but persisting about low level circulation center. Outflow good to north and developing elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low to moderate shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.

Dvorak analysis based on low level circulation center sheared less than 0.5 degrees from deep convection yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0, PT=2.5. Final Dvorak T number is based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 19.5S 168.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.1S 167.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.5S 166.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:00 AM UTC..
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Quoting Seastep:
Better, I think.



Much better Seastep! When I looked at your first one, I thought I took the wrong meds.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



LOL. Fairly peaceful. George Orwell?

I sweated my butt off today, it was too warm in the sun, working on pulling an engine.


No, not that 1984, Pat & I were occupied...elsewhere. Still working on your son's car. Used to like to tinker, but gave it up a long time ago. Now when someone pops their hood I give a long look and just say.....MMMMMMM, interesting.
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Better, I think.

Image reinstated as the best one. Hey, if Grothar can see it, anyone should.

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I find myself staying up Later and watching the Late,Late show with Craig.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Evening all. We've had an interesting day weather wise. At Nas Int'l Airport, flights were delayed until after 8:30 a.m. because of fog. This is the first island-wide fog that was not connected with a fire in literally years. This evening we've been reporting misty conditions, though not sufficient to obscure driving.
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Ouch! My graph hurt my eyes. Let me try to fix.
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Quoting caneswatch:
Happy Birthday Pat!

And hell Grothar. Wish I could stay longer, but I need to get off to bed. Night everyone.


At your age you should have been in bed at 8:00.
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Happy early B-day, Pat. THAT explains it. ;)
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Talked to my brother on Long Island. He said they were getting thunder and lightning with this storm. Snowing very heavily there now. Probably more airport closures coming.
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Ty washingtonian115

Thanks a Bunch caneswatch ..rest well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:



Thanks Gro-bro.



HB-D!!!.And is Don'tAnnoyMe in the building.I always wanted to ask how he got his name.At least it's original.
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Finally got around to updating for 2010. Here's where it stands. Personally believe the current cycle will continue for at least 20 years, probably 30 and then... not sure... but on preliminary looking (analysis for those that are sticklers for semantics) thinking a step down for the next cycle, atm.

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Quoting Grothar:


I just know why I wasn't let in....Forgot my E-tickets. LOL The blog has reminded me of April 1984 this past week. Staying warm up there??



LOL. Fairly peaceful. George Orwell?

I sweated my butt off today, it was too warm in the sun, working on pulling an engine.
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Staying warm up there??


Its been colder than a witches..


Well real cold.


let the furnace in da floor sleep this winter and went wid all electric space heaters.

But these Big ol rooms take some time.

And the draft could reach cat 1 seems at times..specially with these Storms rolling thru.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Happy Birthday Pat!

And hell Grothar. Wish I could stay longer, but I need to get off to bed. Night everyone.
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Thanks Gro-bro.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:
One day Grothar will be able to tell the real reason why Moses wasnt allowed into the Promised Land.

Me..I know,,but cant say entirely till I get the Mayans inbound message next Jan 15th at 12Z.

But Alms and Idols were involved.



I just know why I wasn't let in....Forgot my E-tickets. LOL The blog has reminded me of April 1984 this past week. Staying warm up there??
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Thanks for posting the top graph; every time it shows up here or elsewhere, I can't help but chuckle at those who use it as "evidence" of cooling, when a) the bottom end of the last downward blue line is still higher than about 80% of the rest of the graph, and b) the more important red line showing the running 13-month average is still higher than about 99% of the graph. It takes quite an imagination, I think, to look at it and exclaim, "Yep! An ice age is upon us!" I think the scientific term for that is "grasping at straws" ;-)

The thing is, as any reputable atmospheric scientist will tell you, climate change is a long-term issue, a phenomenon that is playing out over a period of years and decades--and all those long-term climate trends point to a warming planet.

(FWIW, I did some poking around the net, and it's both fascinating and funny to see the number of skeptic sites exclaiming that the planet stopped warming in 2007, and 2002, and 1998, and 1995. When will they ever learn?)


Dude, you really need to get back into the workforce. Sorry, but you are a broken record of, I know better than you, over and over again. I am starting to feel sorry for you and really should not. Nuf said.

gnight

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Rare air indeed!

Hello, LHR. How are ya?


Old, how you doing? Peaceful on the blog tonight?????
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..I think I just went blind in a Eye.

She/Shim iz tall though...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
One day Grothar will be able to tell the real reason why Moses wasnt allowed into the Promised Land.

Me..I know,,but cant say entirely till I get the Mayans inbound message next Jan 15th at 12Z.

But Alms and Idols were involved.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting presslord:
I think he just gave himself away...


Cmon Press, get with the program. Use the assets available to help others again, and you do help others for sure :)

Note, huge disclaimers apply if you look at this blog post :)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1140&tstamp=#commenttop
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Quoting Grothar:
HB Pat. Your're catching up to me fast.




Rare air indeed!

Hello, LHR. How are ya?
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Quoting Ossqss:


Yep, the proverbial cliff is upon us.

Note: complaints about the site used will be forthcoming, but it does not change the data ;)



Does not include the last few weeks.



Also note the similar plateau's to 1998.

Thanks for posting the top graph; every time it shows up here or elsewhere, I can't help but chuckle at those who use it as "evidence" of cooling, when a) the bottom end of the last downward blue line is still higher than about 80% of the rest of the graph, and b) the more important red line showing the running 13-month average is still higher than about 99% of the graph. It takes quite an imagination, I think, to look at it and exclaim, "Yep! An ice age is upon us!" I think the scientific term for that is "grasping at straws" ;-)

The thing is, as any reputable atmospheric scientist will tell you, climate change is a long-term issue, a phenomenon that is playing out over a period of years and decades--and all those long-term climate trends point to a warming planet.

(FWIW, I did some poking around the net, and it's both fascinating and funny to see the number of skeptic sites exclaiming that the planet stopped warming in 2007, and 2002, and 1998, and 1995. When will they ever learn?)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
reply to ossqss #296

What is plus or minus 0.4 degrees? Looks like someone examining an elephant with a microscope.
I wonder which flea they are looking at!
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HB Pat. Your're catching up to me fast.
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If you add 40 to the current year, you'll pass the century mark soon. LOL
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


TC Vince's path in the next two days.


That storm is heading for warm 29C+ water and could draw up to 32C SSTs directly ahead of its path just before making landfall. We could see a repeat of Laurence (second landfall) in 2010:

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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


So sad, trolling for birthday greetings... ;)

HBTY, Pat


....thanks DontAnnoyMe





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting presslord:
I think he just gave himself away...


So sad, trolling for birthday greetings... ;)

HBTY, Pat
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Quoting Patrap:
TY vet,..


One thing good about being conceived in da 50's, born in 1960...

All I have to do to remember my age when Senility kicks in is to add 40 to the current year.

Im writing that down and saving it in wu-mail too right now just in case..



LMAO
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TY vet,..press,Ossqss


One thing good about being conceived in da 50's,and born in Jan 1960...

All I have to do to remember my age when Senility kicks in is to add 40 to the current year.

Im writing that down and saving it in wu-mail too right now just in case..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:
Well the Dog is aLOT Bigger now os,..

I was still on the Super Bowl Fan Crest that evening.

Hope dat Pup is now a Fine Pet for you as well,...


Indeed, he is a great family member. Thanks, for you made it happen. I am thankful for that. And HBD a bit early ! ! Now about the food bill you did not tell me about? LOL

Be well all., out>>>>>>

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I think he just gave himself away...
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Ah, query resolved.

Happy Birthday, Pat!
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Quoting hcubed:


Wait a second - according to that chart, not only has the Antarctic ice mass reached zero, but its actually 700 Gt in the red!!!

Again, I'm assuming that there's an averaging period there (not shown).

Didn't see it on the ScepticalScience.com web site, either.


yeah and they measured the mass, by digging a hole and putting a triple beam balance underneath it
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Quoting presslord:
Somebody has a 51st birthday this Saturday!!!!!!



Hello there! How's it going, friend?

Don't keep us in suspense.
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Shup press

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



The very reason I live here! lol


Hello PSL!
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Somebody has a 51st birthday this Saturday!!!!!!
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Well the Dog is aLOT Bigger now os,..

I was still on the Super Bowl Fan Crest that evening.

Hope dat Pup is now a Fine Pet for you as well,...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:
Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change 11-17-08

Climate models have estimated the strength of water vapor feedback, but until now the record of water vapor data was not sophisticated enough to provide a comprehensive view of at how water vapor responds to changes in Earth's surface temperature. That's because instruments on the ground and previous space-based could not measure water vapor at all altitudes in Earth's troposphere -- the layer of the atmosphere that extends from Earth's surface to about 10 miles in altitude.

AIRS is the first instrument to distinguish differences in the amount of water vapor at all altitudes within the troposphere. Using data from AIRS, the team observed how atmospheric water vapor reacted to shifts in surface temperatures between 2003 and 2008. By determining how humidity changed with surface temperature, the team could compute the average global strength of the water vapor feedback.

This new data set shows that as surface temperature increases, so does atmospheric humidity, Dessler said. Dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere makes the atmosphere more humid. And since water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, the increase in humidity amplifies the warming from carbon dioxide."

Specifically, the team found that if Earth warms 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the associated increase in water vapor will trap an extra 2 Watts of energy per square meter (about 11 square feet).

"That number may not sound like much, but add up all of that energy over the entire Earth surface and you find that water vapor is trapping a lot of energy," Dessler said. "We now think the water vapor feedback is extraordinarily strong, capable of doubling the warming due to carbon dioxide alone."



Based on climate variations between 2003 and 2008, the energy trapped by water vapor is shown from southern to northern latitudes, peaking near the equator.
Credit: Andrew Dessler



One thing they need to do is teach these characters to write better papers.

So now water vapor is an evil greenhouse gas as well.

Oh brother.

The whole point being made by those who see through the AGW fraud has been that Climate change is not a simple CO2 is at fault kind of thing. CO2 is simply a small player in a very complicated multi-element equilibrium.

No rocket science necessary.

Greenhouse gases may make a contribution to the climate, only problem is, the devil is in the details.

Had the author not had such a AGW slant in his viewpoint, the article would likely been written much clearer than it was.

This one is horribly written and extremely convoluted. He couldn't even get the energy facts straight.

Sadly, AGW bias means having to write in convoluted and twisted ways in order to cause confusion and consequently derive agreement because of the reader not wanting to say that they didn't get the drift of the article.

Its called saving face. They wouldn't want to look stupid in front of the professor now would they.


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Quoting Patrap:
I believe it was Feb 12th 2010 and after..

The 4-6 in McComb,Miss was down right phun..




Nice stuff! I think the dog was not sure what the heck you were doin! I still remember, you made me get a dog about the same time :)



BTW, that really is Zeus (80 lbs ago) for the record, with the shirt from Portlight
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Snow is on the ground outside,and it's sticking fast to.But we're not getting alot anyway.But!.Even though we have had small amounts of snow,most of our percipitation this winter has been snow.Interesting to say the least.What a weird La nina...
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Patrick Marsh, a meteorology grad student at OU documented snow on the ground in every U.S. state on Feb 12, 2010.
(OU Daily)

Click to hear his story on NPR.
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Quoting Patrap:
...."I come from the Land down under, where women glow and men plunder"..

Ya better run, ya betta taker cover...

Vegamite sucks!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh ghood evening.Not like that anymore especially when the kids decide to stay up late.
Sorry, missed that...thanks
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I believe it was Feb 12th 2010 and after..

The 4-6 in McComb,Miss was down right phun..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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